hurricanes on the dark side of the bay · 2004. 3. 9. · anatomy of a storm surge: hurricanes on...
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Chesapeake Bay Seminar SeriesChesapeake Bay Seminar Series
Anatomy of a Storm Surge:Hurricanes on the Dark Side of the Bay
Bill Boicourt (University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Horn Point Laboratory)
Online broadcast athttp://ian.umces.edu/seminarbroadcast.htm
Hosted by the Integration & Application Network at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
http://ian.umces.edu
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Anatomy of a Storm Surge:Anatomy of a Storm Surge:Hurricanes on the Dark SideHurricanes on the Dark Side
of the Bayof the Bay
William BoicourtWilliam Boicourt
Photo: Baltimore SunPhoto: Baltimore Sun
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OutlineOutline
I.I. Tropical Cyclones: Tropical Cyclones: How do they work?How do they work?
NASA MODISNASA MODIS
II.II. Response of Chesapeake BayResponse of Chesapeake Bay
III.III. Implications for MonitoringImplications for MonitoringResearch, and ManagementResearch, and Management
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MotivationMotivation•• Response of Estuaries to strong wind forcingResponse of Estuaries to strong wind forcing
NOAA OU CIMMSNOAA OU CIMMS
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1933,2003; Dark Side Forcing1933,2003; Dark Side ForcingIsabelIsabel August, 1933August, 1933
NOAANOAA
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DSFDSF——New Inlets in Barrier New Inlets in Barrier IslandsIslands
USGSUSGS
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Motivation, cont’dMotivation, cont’d•• STRONG StormSTRONG Storm
Field ResearchFacility
The Outer Banks of North Carolina
Cape Hatteras
USACE FRFUSACE FRFNASA MODIS ImageNASA MODIS Image
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Motivation, cont’dMotivation, cont’d
•• Response of Response of ecosystemecosystem
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Oxygen before the StormOxygen before the Storm
Data courtesy David Jasinski, Chesapeake Bay ProgramData courtesy David Jasinski, Chesapeake Bay Program
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Motivation, cont’dMotivation, cont’d•• Operational forecasts and warnings Operational forecasts and warnings –– data assimilationdata assimilation
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Isabel caused widespread floodingIsabel caused widespread flooding
Havre de GraceHavre de GraceFrog Mortar CreekFrog Mortar Creek
Kent NarrowsKent NarrowsAnnapolis city dockAnnapolis city dockImages © Baltimore SunImages © Baltimore Sun
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Dorchester CountyDorchester County
•• 750 homes damaged750 homes damaged•• 350 cars lost350 cars lost
Photo: Baltimore SunPhoto: Baltimore Sun
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MysteryMysteryof of
the the CycloneCyclone
NASA MODIS ImageNASA MODIS Image
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Strong StormStrong Storm
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NASA Space Station VisibleNASA Space Station Visible
StriationsStriations
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How do tropical cyclones grow?How do tropical cyclones grow?•• Convective Instability of the Second Kind Convective Instability of the Second Kind
(CISK)(CISK)
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Heat EngineHeat Engine22
HurricaneHurricaneIsabelIsabel
Hurricane FabianHurricane FabianHurricaneHurricane
IsabelIsabel
11
33 44
NASA GSFC AMSRNASA GSFC AMSR--E E
HurricaneHurricaneIsabelIsabel
HurricaneHurricaneIsabelIsabel
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/Isabels_Engine.hhttp://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/Isabels_Engine.htmltml
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LandfallLandfall
Eye ofEye ofHurricaneHurricaneIsabel
NOAA AOMLNOAA AOML
Isabel11 22
33 44
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/Isabels_Engine.hhttp://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/Isabels_Engine.htmltml
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Wind ResponseWind Response
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Local vs. Remote ForcingLocal vs. Remote Forcing
NASA SEANASA SEA--WiFSWiFS
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SLOSH ModelSLOSH Model
NOAA AOMLNOAA AOML
11 22
Eye ofEye ofHurricaneHurricaneIsabelIsabel
33
WindWinddirectiondirection
44 55 66For the Chesapeake Bay SLOSH model, visitFor the Chesapeake Bay SLOSH model, visithttp://www.frf.usace.army.mil/isabel/I49_EHAT.GIFhttp://www.frf.usace.army.mil/isabel/I49_EHAT.GIF
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SeaSea--Level RiseLevel Rise
NOAA NOS CONOAA NOS CO--OPSOPS
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Why Washington?Why Washington?
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CBOSCBOS——Mid BayMid Bay
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Oxygen, MixingOxygen, Mixing
BERTHABERTHA——July 12July 12--13, 199613, 1996
FRANFRAN——Sept. 5 1996Sept. 5 1996
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Salt IntrusionSalt IntrusionCBOSCBOS——Northern Bay StationNorthern Bay Station
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Bay ResponseBay Response
Strawberry Point Strawberry Point ––Middle RiverMiddle River
Deep Landing Deep Landing ––Chester RiverChester River
Ben Oaks Ben Oaks ––Severn RiverSevern River
SalinitySalinity
TurbidityTurbidity
Data courtesy Mark Trice, MD DNRData courtesy Mark Trice, MD DNR
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78
39
knot
s
0
Wind Speed
Along channel velocity (flood is positive)
Acoustic Backscatter (dB)
Hei
ght a
bove
bot
tom
(m)
Courtesy of Don Wright
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Lessons Learned: Observing Lessons Learned: Observing SystemsSystems
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CBOS Buoy Mark IIICBOS Buoy Mark III
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Lessons Learned: Warnings Lessons Learned: Warnings InadequateInadequate
•• DorchesterDorchester
Photo: Baltimore SunPhoto: Baltimore Sun
•• 750 Homes Damaged750 Homes Damaged•• 350 Cars Lost350 Cars Lost
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ForecastsForecasts•• WavesWaves•• Marine WeatherMarine Weather•• Water LevelWater Level——Storm SurgeStorm Surge•• CurrentsCurrents•• SalinitySalinity•• Water QualityWater Quality----OxygenOxygen•• Oil and Hazardous Materials TransportOil and Hazardous Materials Transport•• HAB ConditionsHAB Conditions
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RecommendationsRecommendations
•• Integrated Observing SystemIntegrated Observing System•• Improve Forecast ModelsImprove Forecast Models•• Detailed WarningsDetailed Warnings•• Upgrade Elevation MapsUpgrade Elevation Maps•• Ecosystem Events vs. ContinuumEcosystem Events vs. Continuum
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UMCES UMCES –– HPLHPLBay Model Bay Model
Hydrodynamics Hydrodynamics ––ROMS/TOMSROMS/TOMS
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Chesapeake Bay Observing Chesapeake Bay Observing SystemSystem
Field ResearchFacility
The Outer Banks of North Carolina
Cape Hatteras
Wallops Coastal OceanObservation Lab
WA-COOL
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Ecosystem: Respond to EventsEcosystem: Respond to Events
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We are not alone….We are not alone….
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AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgmentsJane Thomas, IANJane Thomas, IANMark TriceMark TriceDave JasinskiDave JasinskiBaltimore SunBaltimore SunNOAA CONOAA CO--OPSOPSNOAANOAA--OUOU--CIMMSCIMMSNASA Goddard Space Flight FacilityNASA Goddard Space Flight FacilityEPA Bay ProgramEPA Bay ProgramMD DNR Eyes on the BayMD DNR Eyes on the BayVIMSVIMS——Don WrightDon Wright
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Chesapeake Bay Seminar SeriesChesapeake Bay Seminar Series
Anatomy of a storm surge:Hurricanes on the dark side of the Bay
Bill Boicourt(University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Horn Point Laboratory)
QUESTION TIMEHosted by the Integration & Application Network
at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
http://ian.umces.edu
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RecommendationsRecommendations
•• Integrated Observing SystemIntegrated Observing System•• Improve Forecast ModelsImprove Forecast Models•• Detailed WarningsDetailed Warnings•• Upgrade Elevation MapsUpgrade Elevation Maps•• Ecosystem Events vs. ContinuumEcosystem Events vs. Continuum
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CBOSCBOS——Mid BayMid Bay
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AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgmentsJane Thomas, IANJane Thomas, IANMark TriceMark TriceDave JasinskiDave JasinskiBaltimore SunBaltimore SunNOAA CONOAA CO--OPSOPSNOAANOAA--OUOU--CIMMSCIMMSNASA Goddard Space Flight FacilityNASA Goddard Space Flight FacilityEPA Bay ProgramEPA Bay ProgramMD DNR Eyes on the BayMD DNR Eyes on the BayVIMSVIMS——Don WrightDon Wright
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Chesapeake Bay Seminar SeriesChesapeake Bay Seminar Series
Anatomy of a storm surge:Hurricanes on the dark side of the Bay
Bill Boicourt(University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Horn Point Laboratory)
QUESTION TIMEHosted by the Integration & Application Network
at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
http://ian.umces.edu