hurricanes and climate - sbafla.com · hurricanes and climate ... memorable hurricanes of 1954...
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Hurricanes and Climate
Hugh Willoughby, Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Estimation Methodology
15AUG07
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Present CO2 ~385 ppmv
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Focus on the Recent Past
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Geographical Distribution of Warming
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How much of the apparent increase is due to incomplete observations in the past, and how much is due to climate change?
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Accumulated Cyclone Energy by YearACE is the yearly sum of (Vmax)2 from HURDAT
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Hurricane Heat Engines
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Great Ocean Conveyor Belt
Currents in the Atlantic account for¼ - 1/3 of the Northern-Hemispherepoleward heat transport
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Atlantic Multidecadal Mode
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1982 Hurricane Season
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Memorable Hurricanes of 1954 & 1955
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Gulf of Mexico Ocean Heat Content
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Role of the Loop Current
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Levees failed in CAT 1 conditions
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Actual and Simulated Catastrophic Hurricane Seasons
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Deaths 1900-2006
Halving Time = 27 yr
Note the 1970-2003 respite
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Inflation-Adjusted Damage 1900-2006
Doubling time = 15 yr
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Normalized Hurricane Damage
• Pielke & Landsea (1998, updated in press 2005)
• Corrects for:– Inflation– Population increase– Greater personal wealth
• What would historical hurricanes cost with 2005 population and development?
• Constant at $10B per year, based upon updated 1900-2006 data
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Normalized Damage 1900-2006
Doubling Time = 267 yr
Mean = $9.7B
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Summary• “Globe” is getting warmer
– Primarily in high latitudes– But does effect tropics (0.9 C since 1900)– Almost certainly Anthropogenic
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation– 20-30 years in each phase– Thermohaline circulation– Warm phase, low shear, many hurricanes– Benign 1970-2003, despite active phase start in 1995
• Neither US landfalls nor US damage corrected for economic factors exhibit significant trends
• Random events produce clusters• Multiple working hypotheses• Landfall is when the vorticity hits the voters• What if the climate shifts to some completely bizarre new
mode?