humanity 2020: the next 10 years of human development - ramez naam - h+ summit @ harvard
DESCRIPTION
Ramez Naam Humanity 2020: The Next 10 Years of Human Development The decade between 2010 and 2020 will be a small but significant step in the development of human enhancement technology, with tremendous numbers of new discoveries in genetics fueled by the continuing exponential drop in gene sequencing cost, commercial availability of a new generation of cognitive enhancers and the first plausible aging inhibitors, likely advances in genetic reprogramming of embryos and of mature humans, and continued progress in prosthetics, imaging, sports enhancement, and numerous other areas. Science and technology will have made significant strides in empowering individuals to be smarter, stronger, faster, and longer lived than ever before. Computer scientist Ramez Naam, author of More Than Human: Embracing the Promise of Human Enhancement, and winner of the 2005 H.G. Wells Award for Contributions to Transhumanism will give a guided tour of the 10 year horizons across the board of human enhancement.TRANSCRIPT
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Humansin
2020Ramez Naam
@ramez
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Three Ingredients
Motive Opportunity Means
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•Why Would We Transform Humans?
•Why Even Invest in the R&D?
Motive•Wh
at’s Possible to Change?
Opportunity
•How Do We Actually Change a Human?
Means
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Motivation is Medical
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Human Baseline
Acceptable
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Human Baseline
Questionable!
?
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External != Internal
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Human Baseline
?
?
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The Power to Heal=
The Power to Enhance
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Our Population is Aging
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A Worldwide Phenomenon
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Disability as a Function of Age
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Lost With Age
Mental
Memory
Speed
Problem Solving
Learning Rate
Physical
Strength
Cardio Fitness
Recovery
Metabolism
Appearance
Fertility
Sensory
Eyesight
Hearing
Touch
Taste
Balance
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A Very Large Motivator
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Order: Trillions of $’s
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Ten Thousand Dollars
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One Million Dollars
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One Billion Dollars
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One Trillion Dollars
You Are Here
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So What?
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Opportunity?
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Knowledge
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Understanding
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Human Construction
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Goal: 100,000 Genomes by 2020
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2020: $100 Genome
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Millions of Genomes Sequenced
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Millions of Individual Humans
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Every Mammalian Species
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Lots of Data to Mine
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What Will We Find?Trait Genetic Component in USA
Height 87%
Skin, Eye, Hair Color 90+%
Weight, Body Fat, Obesity 50%
Muscular Strength 35-55%
Longevity 25-30%
IQ 52%
Extroversion/Introversion 53%
Openness to Experience 61%
Conscientiousness 41%
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Knowing is Half the Battle
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The Other Half is Doing
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If the Genome is Digital
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Can We Edit It?
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Sometimes
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Some Challenges
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Immune Response
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Cancer (from retroviral vectors)
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Number of Cells Changed
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Progress
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Strength & Endurance: IGF-1, Myostatin, PPAR-Delta
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Oxygen Capacity: EPO
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“About half the emails I get now are from athletes” - Gene Therapy Researcher Lee Sweeney
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More Provocative Changes are Likely Possible
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In Summary
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We Are Approaching the Day of the Editable Genome
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•Huge Medical Needs and Market in an Aging Population
Motive
•Will Become Evident from the Digitization of Biology
Opportunities
•Printing Genes, and Editing Through Gene Therapy (The Hard Part)
Means
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Humansin
2020Ramez Naam
@ramez