human vulnerability to environmental change...

Background Research Paper: Human Vulnerability to Environmental Change South Africa Environment Outlook November 2005

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NATIONAL STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT PROJECT

HUMAN VULNERABILITY

TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

Background Research Paper produced for the South Africa Environment Outlook report on behalf of the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism

Original Text and Research By: Dr Scott Drimie and Johan van Zyl Human Sciences Research Council

Original Peer Review: Prof Coleen Vogel

University of the Witwatersrand &

Angela Mathee Medical Research Council

Additional Research, Editing and Integrative Writing: Darryll Kilian, Dr Caroline Henderson and Donald Gibson

SRK Consulting

November 2005


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Disclaimer This specialist study was commissioned by SRK Consulting (SRK) on behalf of the

Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (DEAT) as part of the National State of the Environment Reporting Programme. The material has been used in the compilation of the South Africa Environment Outlook report. The views it contains are not necessarily the views of DEAT or SRK. The DEAT and SRK do not accept responsibility in respect of any

information or advice given in relation to or as a consequence of anything contained herein.


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10. HUMAN VULNERABILITY TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1. INTRODUCTION: UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITY ........................ 4 10.1.1. Defining vulnerability..................................................................................... 5 10.1.2. Environmental change.................................................................................... 7

10.2. Poverty and human vulnerability in South Africa .............................................. 9 10.2.1. Rural poverty ................................................................................................ 11 10.2.2. Urban poverty............................................................................................... 12

10.3. LOCAL LEVEL ‘HOT-SPOTS’ ...................................................................... 13 10.3.1. Case Study 1: Food security in southern Africa: entangling vulnerabilities13 10.3.2. Case study 2: Food Security in Urban Tshwane .......................................... 15 10.3.3. Case study 3: Recurrent drought and rural areas in South Africa .............. 17 10.3.4. Case study 4: Health issues in Umkhanyakude District Council, KwaZulu-Natal 19 10.3.5. Case study 5: Formal and informal vulnerabilities to floods: living with environmental risks ...................................................................................................... 24 10.3.6. Case study 6: Climate Change in the Western Cape.................................... 26 Case study 7: Air pollution in South Durban ............................................................... 28

10.4. AREAS OF POSSIBLE INTERVENTION..................................................... 31 10.4.1. Building capacity through social capital and environmental justice ........... 31 10.4.2. Building resilience and adaptive capacity.................................................... 31 10.4.3. Vulnerability assessments and early warning .............................................. 32

10.5. CONCLUSION ................................................................................................ 33 10.6. REFERENCES ................................................................................................. 33


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10.1. 10.1. INTRODUCTION: UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITY The 1997 Human Development Report emphasizes the dramatic economic and environmental changes during the last decades of the 20th century: “The world is rapidly changing, with the globalization and liberalization of the world economy, with the rise of new conflicts, with the spread of HIV/AIDS, with the steady deterioration of environmental resources, with demographic changes, with the failures of economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean and the Arab States, and with the transition to free market economic systems and democratic government”1. The New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) has reiterated

HUMAN VULNERABILITY TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AT A GLANCE

What are the main issues? • Exposure to environmental hazards or shocks like fires, floods and drought • Exposure to degradation of environmental resources • Household food insecurity • Poor quality housing • Lack of access to safe sources of energy • Ability of people to cope

What causes vulnerability in South Africa?

• An interaction between environmental change, natural events and socio-political conditions determines vulnerability of people

• Increased exposure to environmental change and events and decrease ability of people to cope with this exposure

• Climate change and variability, deterioration of air and water quality, conversion, degradation and fragmentation of natural habitat, and overexploitation of marine and coastal resources are the main changes in the environment affecting vulnerability

• Increasing levels of poverty, unemployment and HIV/AIDS • Poor levels of governance in terms of emergency response systems, access to

information and increasing the social safety net are increasing vulnerability Who are the most vulnerable?

• The economically marginalized who lack land, capital and tools, livestock, literacy and other formal skills.

• The socially marginalized by gender (women and girls), age (children, elderly), and by illness or disability.

How can we respond to vulnerability?

• Promoting empowerment, investing in human resources, and fostering participation in public affairs and decision-making

• Improve people’s capacity to cope with change through building social networks and groups and fighting poverty and HIV/AIDS

• Change patterns of land use – avoid inherently hazardous areas • Improve disaster management and early warning systems


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External Vulnerability

EXPOSURE

THE DOUBLE STRUCTURE OF VULNERABILITY

COPING

Internal Vulnerability

Figure 10.1: A conceptual model for vulnerability (after Bohle 2001)7

these concerns and in particular recognized that “natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, earthquakes and landslides cause considerable human suffering and economic damage”. Natural events and environmental degradation will continue to undermine prospects of fighting poverty, economic growth and sustainable development2. This chapter will define vulnerability and indicate how environmental change is affected by and affects human activity. The section that follows elaborates on this understanding through the presentation of 7 place-bound case studies, or hot spots of vulnerability. These case studies highlight various dimensions of human vulnerability to environmental change. The chapter concludes by looking at areas of possible intervention. 10.1.1. Defining vulnerability The Global Environment Outlook 3 report defines vulnerabilitya as the “the interface between exposure to the physical threats to human well-being and the capacity of people and communities to cope with those threats”3. Vulnerability thus has two sides: an external side of risks, shocks and stress to which an individual or household is subject, and an internal side, which is the means for coping without damaging loss4 (Figure 10.1).

Although vulnerability is often considered in relation to a particular stressor or hazard, such as drought, it is becoming increasingly clear that it is generated and shaped by interacting biophysical and socio-economic factors, as shown in Figure 10.2. These include not only physical changes in the environment, such as deforestation, erosion, desertification, infilling of flood plains and dwindling surface and ground water, but also economic, social, and political changes brought about by socio-economic processes such as economic globalization, urbanization, migration and political conflicts5.

a The most commonly accepted definition of vulnerability is: “Vulnerability refers to exposure to contingencies and stress and means for coping with them.”


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Source: Wisner (2003)6 Figure 10.2: Schematic outline of vulnerability The causes and impacts of environmental change and natural hazards are the result of both physical and socio-economic factors. Vulnerability is strongly linked to the complex make-up of society; including class, gender and age, past losses and susceptibility to future losses6. Human vulnerability may be compounded by a number of factors7: • Livelihood circumstances - position and status in society, which in turn is usually related to

wealth, gender, race, ethnicity, health and other factors; • Location – the geographical proximity to the hazard in question; • Self-protection – the capacity to protect oneself from harm, including access to materials,

knowledge and information; and • Social protection – the extent to which the society, or group of individuals, can provide

assistance and support, including resources and technical knowledge. Box 10.1 below presents a set of indicators for vulnerability that could be used to analyse

national level vulnerability to climate change in South Africa. Box 10.1 Vulnerability indicators The table below presents a set of national level indicators of vulnerability and capacity that have been adapted to climate hazards. Although these indicators are specific to climate change, they still provide a useful entry point to analysing vulnerability in South Africa. Particular emphasis is placed on the categories of health, education and governance. Education and health essentially underpin human capability and well-being, and governance facilitates the ability to cope through the provision and support of institutions. Participation in the political process will, for example, lead to the development of social capital. Education indicators can be gauged to assess whether non-manual employment is contributing to resilience through diversified livelihoods and access to information. Potential proxies for national level vulnerability to climate change Category Variable Proxy Economy National wealth

Inequality GDP per capita (US$ PPP) GINI coefficient

Health State support for health Health expenditure per capita (US$ PPP)

Increased Vulnerability

Exposure to Hazards and Threats

Reduced Capacity to Cope and Recover

Lack of Access Health Services Credit Information Justice Etc…

Lack of Resources Income Assets Social Support Etc…


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General health Healthcare availability Removal of economically active population

* Life expectancy at birth * Maternal mortality per 100,000 HIV prevalence rate (% of adults)

Food & nutrition security

Nutritional status General food availability Food access / access to nutrition

* Calorie intake per capita Food production index Food price index

Education Educational commitment Educational commitment Entitlement to information Entitlement to information Entitlement to information Participatory decision making

Education expenditure as % of GNP Educational expenditure as % of government expenditure * Literacy rate (% of population over 15) * Literacy rate (% of 15-24 year olds) * Literacy ratio (female to male) * Voice and accountability

Infrastructure Isolation of rural communities Commitment to rural communities Quality of basic infrastructure

Roads (km, scaled by land area with 99% of population) Rural population without access to safe water (%) * Population with access to sanitation (%)

Governance Effectiveness of policies Influence of political process Influence of political process Ability to deliver services Willingness to invest in adaptation

Control of corruption * Civil liberties * Political rights * Government effectiveness Political stability

Geography/ demography

Resource pressure Coastal risk

Population density Pop within 100km of coastline (%)

Agriculture Agricultural self-sufficiency Agricultural production index Ecology Environmental stress

Environmental stress Sustainability of water resources Sustainability of water resources

Protected land area (%) Unpopulated land area Groundwater recharge per capita Water resources per capita

Technology Commitment to and resources for research Capacity to undertake research and understand issues

R&D investment (% GNP) Scientists & engineers in R&D per million population

Source: (adapted) from Brooks et al. (2004) 8 Proxies marked with an * indicate key indicators of vulnerability as per Brooks et al. (2004). 10.1.2. Environmental change Most environments are in a constant state of flux, but human modifications for food production, settlements, infrastructure, or to produce and store goods3 accelerate the rates of change in many cases outside the range of natural disturbances and fluctuations. Change is the norm, rather than the exception, but most natural ecosystems maintain themselves in a state of ‘dynamic equilibrium’, where the system is adapted to withstand the perturbations/disturbances brought about by a limited amplitude or range of change. The system has resilience to change within this range; and one of the key elements in this resilience is biodiversity. However, there are some naturally extreme events,


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such as earthquakes, hurricanes, floods and droughts which ‘re-set’ the system or change it into a new system. Ecologists are finding that floods and droughts at least are necessary ‘re-sets’ in the systems which are prone to them. These extreme events occur in particular locations and these locations are thus inherently unstable, such as floodplains, steep slopes and the intertidal zone of the coast. South Africa has always been known to be a drought prone region and its major rivers subject to violent floods.

Humanity’s ability to modify, manipulate and control natural processes has increased as engineering and technology have developed, to the point where today many people believe nature to be completely controllable. This has inculcated an attitude of ignoring natural dynamics, hence erecting barriers to sea water in coastal areas, building on steep slopes subject to land slides, channelizing of rivers and infilling of floodplains, building cities on tectonic faults. South Africa has developed stocking rates and a maize industry which do not reserve money or resources for the drought years, hence the disastrous economic consequences of droughts. Where human settlement coincides with and attempts to control and modify inherently unstable natural landscapes, vulnerability to natural events which become human disasters is inevitable. There is now evidence that this vulnerability may be increased by human attempts to control and eliminate the natural hazards: channelization of rivers allows increasing development of floodplains, but urban development in floodplains increases both the volume and rate of runoff into the river, thus increasing the flood peak volume beyond what the channel was designed to accommodate. The result of flooding out of the channel is catastrophic to the urban area adjacent to it, partly because everyone thought that the engineered solution had made them immune to such events (the recent devastation of New Orleans, which lies below sea level in a major river delta/ floodplain, is a case in point). So our patterns of land use make us all vulnerable to natural hazards. They are disasters only in human terms.

Environmental changes brought about by human activities set in motion a chain of changes which make us more vulnerable to disasters, such as desertification (loss of vegetation cover), which leads to reduced soil moisture (affected agricultural productivity), increased soil erosion and runoff, leading to increased flood volumes, poor water quality due to elevated suspended solid levels, and so on. Poorly treated waste water entering rivers reduces their water quality, which makes communities downstream vulnerable to waterborne infectious diseases. Global human migration has caused the spread of some infectious diseases into new regions and continents. Conversely, attempts to eliminate disease through the development of super-drugs has bred a range of ‘super’-resistant bacteria such Vancomycin Resistant Enterococci, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Escherichai coli (E.coli). High levels of pollution may cause the development of widespread, sub-lethal health conditions, which make the victims more vulnerable to other, lethal diseases.

The following changes in South Africa’s environment are important in the context of vulnerability: • Climate scenarios generated from global atmospheric models indicate that southern Africa may

experience increased frequencies and magnitudes of extreme events such as droughts and floods9. The most recent projections for South Africa show that the east coast regions of the country will experience wetting while the west will become drier and the Western Cape will face a shorter rainfall season10.

• Increasing air pollutant concentrations in general exceed recommended health limits across the country, while indoor air pollution from the burning of coal and wood for cooking and heating is arguably one of the most critical environmental health issuesb.

• The lower reaches of rivers and those in urban areas are in poor health. A large proportion of rivers have deteriorating water quality (salinity) while most primary river ecosystems are threatenedc.

b Refer to Chapter 4 on Atmosphere c Refer to Chapter 6 on Inland Water


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• There is increased conversion and fragmentation of natural land and habitat to urban and agricultural usesd,e;

• There is a lack of access to land and poor planning particularly on the fringes of urban centresd where high density informal settlements are developing; and

• Increasing exploitation of fisheries and coastal resources particularly on the west coastf. There are growing signs that the earth system is ‘fragile’ and that the nature of changes now

occurring simultaneously in the global environment, their magnitudes and rates, are unprecedented in human history. Compounded by rapidly changing socio-economic conditions, these changes pose significant challenges for Southern Africa. 10.2. Poverty and human vulnerability in South Africa In a country like South Africa, poor people tend to be the most vulnerable to environmental disturbance, because they have few resources to cope with disaster – they have low income, they have few choices regarding location and employment, are less able to access food, to save and accumulate assets, and are often powerless. Both the global and the local consequences of environmental damage directly affect poor people. Vulnerability is however not the same as poverty11. Rising poverty is certainly a contributing factor to rising vulnerability, but poor people may not be vulnerable if they live in relatively stable contexts with good infrastructure, communications, and social support systems (see Figure 10.2)12. overty in this context may be state of deprivation (lack of adequate access) to key resources necessary for full participation in economic and social life.

As indicated in Chapter 2 of this report, there an increase in the absolute number of people living in poverty between 1995 and 200213. Further, those households living in poverty sunk deeper into poverty and the gap between rich and poor has widened14. Table 10.1: Poverty indicators by province

Province No. of poor persons (million)

% of population in poverty

Poverty gapg (R billion)

Share of poverty gap

Eastern Cape 4.6 72% 14.8 18.2% Free State 1.8 68% 5.9 7.2% Gauteng 3.7 42% 12.1 14.9% KwaZulu-Natal 5.7 61% 18.3 22.5% Limpopo 4.1 77% 11.5 14.1% Mpumalanga 1.8 57% 7.1 8.7% North West 1.9 52% 6.1 7.5% Northern Cape 0.5 61% 1.5 1.8% Western Cape 1.4 32% 4.1 5.0% South Africa 25.7 57% 81.3 100.0%

Source: HSRC (2004)14

The spatial distribution of the poor across municipalities is shown in Map 10.1. Seven of the 10 poorest municipalities are located in the Eastern Cape while two are located in Limpopo and

d Refer to Chapter 5 on Land e Refer to Chapter 8 on Biodiversity f Refer to Chapter 7 on Marine and Coastal g The poverty gap measures the required annual income transfer to all poor households to bring them out of poverty.


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one in the Free State. These areas correspond with the former homeland areas. It is clear that a disproportionate number of South Africa’s poor are resident in rural areas.

The poverty gap gives an indication of how far below the poverty line poor households are. It has grown from R56-billion in 1996 to R81-billion in 2001. The poverty gap indicates that poor households have not shared in the benefits of economic growth. In 1996 the total poverty gap was equivalent to 6.7% of gross domestic product (GDP); by 2001 it had risen to 8.3%.


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Source: HSRC (2004)14 Map 10.1: Distribution of poverty across South Africa showing the ten poorest municipalities 10.2.1. Rural poverty Poor rural households do not have the assets (land, finances, tools) to progress as agriculturalists, and land-based livelihood strategies fail to provide enough to accumulate, inhibiting gradual escape from vulnerability over time. The marginalization of the rural poor is captured in Box 10.215. Box 10.2: Marginalisation of the rural poor

“They appreciated that I came to visit them because no one visits their house. What touched me is that four members of the family were sick. One had TB, one had HIV, one woman had a breast problem, and her baby had diarrhoea. They have never been treated because they could not pay for transport. The baby is fed on thin porridge diluted with water and breastfed on the healthy breast. I had to help them with money. There is no food at all, they depend on anyone who comes in and gives food…The family is tired of them, they do not want to assist anymore, because they are always hungry. There are no blankets except one, which is shared between the baby with diarrhoea and the person with HIV. The roof is leaking during the rainy season and it gets flooded sometimes. The house belongs to a family member who died of TB. No-one in this family has an ID, and they have no money to apply for IDs, or even to come to town.” Source: Mount Frere Fieldworker, Chronic Poverty Research Centre, University of Western Cape, translated from isiXhosa in De Swardt 2003.


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Several of the poorest municipalities in South Africa have high population densities and are situated in ‘deep’ rural locations (Map 10.2).Often these are under communal tenure. It is in areas such as these with high levels of poverty, high population densities and the largest historical backlogs in terms of services that are the most vulnerable in South Africa (see case study on Umkhanyakude in section 10.4.4).

South Africa is experiencing urbanization without significant economic and income growth (refer to Chapter 9) results in the nine major cities harbouring a higher share of the unemployed than their share of the population would suggest. If nothing is done in the rural areas, including land reform and building more diverse, farming communities around revitalized rural towns, the urban areas will simply not be able to cope with the continued influx of migrants looking for jobs, which do not exist.

Education in rural areas is a key intervention to underpin resilience and reduce susceptibility to shocks such as environmental change. Since 1996, there has been an improvement in educational attainment throughout South Africa, with a decrease in the proportion of individuals with no schooling and a significant increase in the proportion of individuals with Grade 12 or higher education (refer to section 2.2.4.3 in Chapter 2 for the latest statistics).

Despite these improvements, rural women who remain one of the most marginalized and vulnerable groupings. For example the majority of women (52-74%) in the Makhuduthamaga municipality have no or some primary education. Makhuduthamaga falls within the Sekhukhune District Council, which is one of the Integrated Rural Development nodes selected as an area requiring concerted effort to meet backlogs17. Map 10.1 indicates that the Makhuduthamaga municipality is one of the 10 poorest municipalities in the country.(see case study on food insecurity in Sekhukhune). 10.2.2. Urban poverty Poverty is not only a feature of rural areas, as the urban poor have become a very visible segment in the urban landscape. Between 1996 and 2001, the population of the largest 21 urban centres in South Africa rose from 18.4 million to 21.1 million, an absolute increase of 14.23% or an annual growth rate of 2.7%18. Unemployment underpins poverty in urban areas, alongside a substantial number of workers lacking education and specialized skills (refer to Chapter 2). At the same time it is the urban poor who are often exposed to degraded urban environments, which coincides with their inability to afford safer environments or have essential services. Informal settlements are often located on the banks of streams or against steep hills, which have the accompanying dangers of flooding and mudslides; they often do not have access to safe water, storm water drainage and sanitation services, increasing vulnerability of their inhabitants to infectious diseases. Housing is a key asset for the poor and indicators of dwelling quality reveal those vulnerable to adverse weather conditions. Nineteen percent of dwellings in South Africa can be classified as being in poor repair16. Nationally close to half of informal dwellings and over a third of traditional dwellings can be classified as vulnerable to environmental conditions.

Disease in informal settlements compounds vulnerability. HIV/AIDS is a major development issue in South Africa. The loss of individuals as a result of AIDS-related deaths, productivity losses due to illness, care and funerals, direct costs as a result of medication and other issues have forced poorer households to the brink of survival. Chapters 2 and 9 provide estimates on HIV prevalence rates in South Africa. However, Table 10.2 below depicts the HIV prevalence by location of the individual respondents. Those living in informal settlements have nearly doubled the prevalence compared to the national average.


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Table 10.2: HIV prevalence by locality in South Africa Locality type % HIV positive 95% confidence interval Sample

size Urban formal 12,1 10,3-14,0 5,098 Urban informal 21,3 16,2-26,5 841 Tribal 8,7 6,5-10,9 1,906 Farms 7,9 4,8-11,1 583 Total 11,4 10,0-12,7 8,428 Source: Nelson Mandela/HSRC (2002)19 Conversely, wealthier people also be vulnerable if they live in unstable landscapes characterized by widespread uncertainties. 10.3. LOCAL LEVEL ‘HOT-SPOTS’ The following section provides a more detailed look at particular “hot spots” of human vulnerability to environmental change through a number of case studies. The case studies chosen to illustrate particular examples of human vulnerability to environmental change include: • Case study 1: Food security in the Southern African Development Community (SADC); • Case study 2: Food security in urban Tshwane, Gauteng; • Case study 3: Climate variability and food security in communal areas in South Africa; • Case study 4: Health issues in Umkhanyakude District Council, KwaZulu-Natal; • Case study 5: Floods in Alexandra, Gauteng and Montagu, Western Cape; • Case study 6: Climate change in the Western Cape; and • Case study 7: Air pollution in South Durban, KwaZulu-Natal. It should be noted that these case studies do not represent all vulnerability ‘hot spots’ in the country, and that it is difficult to as on, which the case studies feature 10.3.1. Case Study 1: Food security in southern Africa: entangling vulnerabilities Food security is commonly said to exist when people at all times have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. Achieving this involves: • Availability: ensuring that a wide variety of food is available in local markets and fields; • Access: people have enough production or money to obtain a variety of foods that are

nutritionally adequate and culturally acceptable; • Stability: availability and access are guaranteed at all times; and • Utilization: food is stored, prepared, distributed and eaten in ways that are nutritionally

adequate for all members of the household, including men and women, girls and boys, in an environment that supplies appropriate care, clean water, and good sanitation and health services. Food insecurityh exists if one or more of these conditions are not fulfilled. Food or livelihood

security may be directly impacted by environmental change, as evidenced by the recent situation in

h Different levels of food insecurity must be considered if the underlying causes are to be understood. National aggregate food security refers to the total food available from a range of different sources to cover the total needs of the country. At local or community level, different categories of households are food secure if they have the capacity to obtain the food


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southern Africa. The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)points to various environmental changes that may accompany climate change in Africa: “There is wide consensus that climate change will worsen food security, mainly through increased extremes and temporal/spatial shifts... Adverse changes in seasonal river flows, floods and droughts, food security, fisheries, health effects, and loss of biodiversity are among the major vulnerabilities and concerns of Africa, Latin America and Asia where adaptation opportunities are generally low”20.

In 2002/03, low rainfall and a poor maize harvest in most of southern Africa led six governments in the region, namely Lesotho, Swaziland, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe, to declare emergencies and appeal for food and humanitarian assistance from the international community. Subsequent analyses concluded that adverse climatic conditions served to trigger a crisis whose causes were to be found in long-term problems that had made households more vulnerable to climatic shocks than in the past. In 1992, the southern African region’s food security crisis was the result of an extreme global El Niño event, which triggered widespread drought conditions. The sizeable reductions in regional food production did not, however, lead to famine. A decade later, a livelihoods crisis in the same region that led to unparalleled levels of hardship for many southern African countries, resulted from a range of “entangling crises” such as rainfall failure, widespread disruptions in food availability, failures of governance, extreme levels of prevailing poverty and the continuing erosion of livelihood strategies and livelihood security through HIV/AIDS. It has been shown that while drought contributed specifically to the crisis in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe, in other parts of the region, for example, in Lesotho, severe hail and frosts also contributed to food shortages in specific localities21.

The widespread harvest failures represent a transitory shock to the food economy triggered by environmental change that affected everyone in the countries concerned, but which had a particularly strong impact on the poor, many of whom depended heavily on farming for the incomes, or who were net buyers of food22. Data collected by the Vulnerability Assessment Committeesi (VACs) provide ample evidence that the poorest were the most vulnerable to risks and were least able to prepare for and recover from shocks, with people in the poorer wealth categories experiencing far higher food deficits than those from middle income or better-off income categories. The VACs have shown that people were not so much vulnerable to livelihood stressj but were directly experiencing crises in their livelihood strategiesk.

Research indicates that livelihoods have become less resilient in southern Africa23. Reviews of livelihood trend in Malawi, Zambia and Lesotho have shown how levels of rural poverty and social differentiation have grown sharply in the 1990s. This has been largely caused by the growing isolation of rural areas, which has meant a decreased opportunity to access services on favourable terms, a result of the state withdrawing support for livelihoods following the economic reform programmes of the 1980s and 1990s. A review of 49 regional case studies depicting household and community-level food insecurity has concluded that, “in general terms, food insecurity in southern

they require. At the individual level within a household or social unit, the actual food consumed must cover each person’s specific nutritional needs for an active and healthy life. i The VAC methodology was first implemented in 1999 by the Southern African Development Community. The aim of these committees is to collate and analyse existing secondary data from several collating agencies and collect primary livelihood data using field teams in each country. VACs are the primary tool for assessing levels of food insecurity and livelihood conditions in six SADC countries. j Refers to the stresses or shocks such as drought, civil war, policy failure, which undermine adaptive and coping strategies of individuals, households, communities or groups (Carney D. et al (1999). Livelihood Approaches Compared. Department of International Development.). k Livelihood strategies are defined as the activities undertaken by (mostly poor rural and urban) householders to provide a means of living. A key goal of livelihood strategies is to ensure the economic and social security of the household.


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Africa is the outcome of the interaction between environmental stressors, and socio-economic conditions”24. 10.3.2. Case study 2: Food Security in Urban Tshwane South Africa did not experience the same levels of food insecurity as those of the six countries for which a UN Consolidated Appeal was raised. Indeed South Africa’s national surplus was seen as one source of food for emergency relief by UN Agencies involved in the humanitarian response. However, this should not detract from the fact that in some parts of South Africa, a similar situation has emerged that was also triggered by climate variability, in particular poor rains.

In South Africa, despite a large percentage of households still resident in rural areas, food insecurity is not exclusively linked to food production or availability due to, for example, a failure of harvests as a result of drought. South Africa’s experience of de-agrarianization and the destruction of peasant agriculture under the previous political dispensations resulted in a situation where most food is produced by large, capital-intensive commercial farms. As a result, many households shifted to non-agricultural income sources and diversified their livelihood strategies, particularly as the reach of the capitalist economy penetrated rural areas in search of labour. It is well established that household food insecurity is largely driven by poor people’s lack of access to land and other assets essential to food production, the meagre contribution of subsistence agriculture to household food needs, a relatively high dependence on wages and remittances, a relatively great reliance on purchased food, and a corresponding disproportionate exposure to inflation and price shocks.

It can be argued that there are two distinct groups in South Africa among those vulnerable to food insecurity: 1. Those who either lack employment opportunities or lack access to land, skills, capital or other

productive assets; and 2. There are those unable to work due to age or illness or social exclusion, and to whom the

availability and affordability of food is essential for survival. Despite current national food security, many South African households experience continued food insecurity, malnutrition and unemployment. As stated in the Land Chapter (Chapter 4), approximately 14.3 million South Africans are vulnerable to food insecurity25 These are the households that were severely affected by the price increases of basic foods during 2002. The dramatic impact of rising food prices on these households, and the effect of food price inflation on South Africa’s inflation rate, compelled the government to investigate ways to deal with this crisis. Suspicion about manipulation in the commodity-market, and concerns about concentration and market power in the food manufacturing and retail sector created the perception that the role players in the food sector were unfairly increasing the prices of basic foods. All of this pointed to the need for an investigation into pricing behaviour in the food sector, which led to the establishment of a Food Price Monitoring Committee (FPMC) in 2002. The analysis of food price inflation for different income groups by the FPMC showed that poor households experienced higher inflation rates than wealthier households. At its peak, in October 2002, poor households were confronted with a year-on-year food price inflation of 23.1% while richer households experienced a food price inflation of 19%. Investigations of the Committee showed that a combination of factors, including a large open trading position on the futures market, inexperienced traders and incomplete information about the real size of the South African crop, as well as the supply and demand situation in the SADC region, created a situation where hoarding of the market was possible for a certain period during 2002, after which the market corrected itself. The National Labour and Economic Development Institute (NALEDI) concurred with this analysis, positing that the most immediate cause of maize meal price increases was the milling industry recuperating the costs of their purchases of expensive grain earlier in 200226. Both


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NALEDI and the FPMC emphasized the role of regional demand compounded by the food security crisis, particularly exports to Zambia and other southern African countries and expectations of an “El Niño related crop failure and damage in Southern Africa in the next maize season”. The responded to this link between regional demand and food prices through a substantial grant to the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations to help facilitate regional stability. This indicates that environmental impacts in the region were entwined amongst the vulnerabilities of the South African poor through globalization and regional economic integration to directly exacerbate household food insecurity in vulnerable areas.

The impacts of high food prices were investigated in several parts of the country including rural Tshwane, in particular Mamelodi and Stinkwater27. Impacts tended to force households to reduce the number of meals per day and to change their food composition, compelling many to opt for cheaper foodstuffs of low quality or to substitute their normal foods with inferior ones. Other responses included cutting the size of meals, foregoing on “luxuries” such as a traditional lunch on a Sunday and, in many cases, redirecting cash resources from paying off furniture credits or contributing to burial or lending societies, a key financial asset for the poor. One respondent in Stinkwater explained that people have priorities in the following order: the first thing is to buy food; second, pay school fees; after that, then contribute towards burial societies. Poorer diets were often cited as having an especially negative impact on children, who for lack of sufficient nourishment often had difficulty concentrating in school.

Table 10.3 reports on average ‘food diversity counts’l (FDC) by different categories of food such as vegetables or meat, as well as for all foods. Urban households have a significantly more diverse diet overall, and for all food categories except staples. Further, better-off households had significantly more diverse diets than poorer households, with surprisingly little distinction between average and worse-off households. In addition, among rural households, cultivation clearly contributed to dietary diversity, especially in respect of vegetables. About 23% of the average FDC for rural households for vegetables was directly related to own production.

l The “food diversity count” for a household is simply the number of different foods that were consumed by any household member in the previous week, regardless of the quantities consumed, which were then averaged over all households or over different sub-sets of households.


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Table 10.3: Average food diversity counts overall and for different sub-groups

Vegetables Meat Fruit Staples Other All foods All households 4.5 2.5 1.7 3.0 1.1 12.8

Urban 5.2 3.6 2.9 2.9 2.1 16.7 Rural 4.2 2.0 1.1 3.1 0.6 10.9

Better-off 5.7 3.3 3.4 2.9 2.1 17.4 Average 4.2 2.4 1.4 3.1 0.8 12.0 Worse-off 4.3 2.2 1.3 3.2 0.9 11.9 Don't know/refuse 3.8 2.0 0.3 2.8 0.3 9.0

Those who cultivate* 4.8 2.5 1.0 3.6 0.7 12.6 Those who do not* 3.4 1.3 1.2 2.6 0.3 8.9

* Calculated only for rural households. Source: Aliber and Modilselle (2002)27 A high proportion of respondent households experienced food insecurity across a variety of dimensions, ranging from anxiety about future diet, dietary quality, and dietary sufficiency, to actually engaging in coping strategies of various degrees of desperation including relying on neighbours, taking food on credit from shops, and collecting wild plants. It is important to note that a significant share of households never experienced the sorts of food security problems described, and a similarly high proportion experienced these problems chronically, which is a clear indication of differentiation amongst the study groups and a feature of contemporary South Africa with significant inequalities even within communities. 10.3.3. Case study 3: Recurrent drought and rural areas in South Africa Food price increases are not the only feature of food insecurity in South Africa that has a link to environmental change. As is clearly indicated above, and elaborated on in the Land Chapter, droughts occur frequently in South Africa and the wider region. Droughts cause livelihood losses that severely aggravate the plight of many of the rural poor in the region. Conditions in rural areas make it difficult for households to cope with adverse environmental events. Population densities in rural communal areas are high, which over time have contributed to over-grazing and severe soil erosion. In the event of a drought, the production of even a small amount of grain and other food is reduced, and livestock lost. In addition, due to migration of a high percentage of productive persons to the cities in search of employment opportunities, either females or the elderly heads many households in rural areas. This contributes to the low income of such households, as there are no local employment opportunities, and the lowering of the ability to farm productively. In many rural households the main source of income is the social grants and remittances from family members. Research conducted at several sites in diverse communal areasm across South Africa, shows that communities reported environmental impacts to their livelihoods, particularly increasing intensity and variability in climate events28,29,30. For example, in the uThukela District, communities reported climate variability in terms of snow, hail and frost in 2001, heavy rain and flooding in 1996 and 1998, drought in 1983, 1990, 1991, 1994, and 2002-3, which caused the loss of crops and livestock and property damage. The interrelationship between this and a complex socio-political

m The Centre for Climate Change Research Project at the University of Sheffield has undertaken research in uThukela District in KwaZulu-Natal, Lehurutshe in North-West Province and Dzanani in Limpopo.


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context created an increasingly fragile livelihood system for the communities. Environmental factors cited by respondents to the research included: • Regular risk of drought (all study sites); • Unpredictable rainy season (all study sites); • Weak “wetting” trend for agriculture (KwaZulu-Natal); • Water shortages (all study sites); • Poor quality rangeland with increase in unpalatable grasses (KwaZulu-Natal, North-West); and • Land degradation and bush encroachment (KwaZulu-Natal, North-West). Long-term erosion of livelihoods and food insecurity among vulnerable communities, particularly in rural areas, has impacted severely on the physiology of children through malnutrition in South Africa. Malnutrition has been worsening in the country with the prevalence of underweight children increasing from 9.3% to 10.3% during the late 1990s31. Stunting also rose from 22.9% of children aged 1-6 in 1994 to 23.3% in 199932. A recent study in Sekhukhune has confirmed the dire nutrition situation of the poor in South Africa. The prevalence of underweight children per age category was shown to be high. For children two years and older, the severity of the prevalence of underweight was medium (10.0 – 19.9%) for children aged 24–71 months and 72–119 months, and high (20.0 – 29.9%) for children in the age group 120–215 months, according to the WHO classification33. Stunting, as an indicator for chronic malnutrition, was also notable in Sekhukhune. For children two years and older, the severity of stunting was high (30.0-39.9%) in all three age categories (Table 10.4). Table 10.4: The prevalence of stunting per age category (n = 1025) in Sekhukhune

Age category 13 – 23 months

24 – 71 months

72 – 119 months

120 – 215 months

Total

Count 17 70 79 200 366 Stunted % within age group 43.6 36.6 33.5 35.8 35.7 Count 22 121 157 359 659 Normal % within age group 56.4 63.4 66.5 64.2 64.3 Count 39* 191 236 559 1025 Total % within age group 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: FIVIMS (2005)33 * The sample size (n = 39) in the 12 - 23 months age-group was too small The physiological outcome of chronic food insecurity is thus blatantly evident in Sekhukhune, which characterizes a population highly susceptible to a range of shocks. The same study revealed that after the death of an adult, experienced by 23% of households interviewed, drought was the second highest experienced shock (Table 10.5). Table 10.5: Shocks experienced by households in the last year (%), by municipality, Sekhukhune

Groblers-dal

Marble Hall Tubatse Makhu-

duthamaga Fetak-gomo

Sekhukhune Total

Death of an adult 36,1 15,3 10,2 26,0 22,1 22,5 Drought 21,4 6,2 8,1 32,3 28,2 18,9 General joblessness in the household 4,8 20,3 12,6 32,6 6,7 16,8

Death of a child 27,3 7,8 4,5 23,0 4,2 15,2 Increase in foods prices 7,9 1,2 8,2 36,1 2,2 14,2

No access to clean 1,6 5,0 4,4 27,5 17,3 11,1


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Groblers-dal

Marble Hall Tubatse Makhu-

duthamaga Fetak-gomo

Sekhukhune Total

water Source: FIVIMS (2005)33 Together with a lack of access to potable water, drought undermined livelihood options open to communities in Sekhukhune, particularly the small number that were engaged in agriculture. Certainly most households relied on household gardens or small plots to supplement their diets, as well as utilizing seasonally available natural resources, which were affected by drought. The most important constraint to agriculture in Sekhukhune was access to water. Anecdotal reflection indicated that water tables were far lower than in the past and that mountain streams and springs, along with other sources of water, were drying up. With a large number of mines planned for the district, water stress was likely to be a major source of vulnerability and potential conflict in Sekhukhune in the future. 10.3.4. Case study 4: Health issues in Umkhanyakude District Council, KwaZulu-Natal Human vulnerability to environmental change is exacerbated by poor health caused by exposure to disease, malnourishment and under-nutrition, weak public health institutions and interventions. Poor health inhibits economic activity and production on account of individuals feeling sick or being bed-ridden. This effect is amplified where illness requires someone to take care of a sick person, thereby reducing the opportunity of the caretaker in doing other tasks. Illness is also accompanied by direct costs, such as seeking care with accompanying transport costs and payments for a health provider, and costs of medicines. In addition, poor health contributes to emotional and psychological effects. Poor health may be caused by exposure to environmentally related risks, such as vector-borne diseases or air pollution, and may in turn exacerbate vulnerability and undermine resilience against other shocks.

Access to clean drinking water and sanitation services provide a fundamental basis for promoting good health of the population and for reducing human vulnerability. Access to basic services tends to be negatively associated with poverty in South Africa, with poorer households having lower levels of safe drinking water and significantly lower access to adequate sanitation than the non-poor31(compare Map 10.2 with Map 10.1). Overlapping vulnerabilities tends to be the dominant feature of areas identified as being most vulnerable due to high levels of poverty. Although access to water and sanitation remain challenges within South Africa, significant gains have been made in water provision nationally with access to piped water in the dwelling, yard or public tap16 (refer to Chapter 9).

The Umkhanyakude District Council in north-eastern KwaZulu-Natal has been chosen as a case study to demonstrate the interrelationships between human vulnerability, health and environmental change. It is situated in a remote rural area with a high poverty rate (Map 10.3), limited access to services (Map 10.4), a vulnerable population (see Map 10.5), and lies in a sub-tropical zone with close proximity to Mozambique and Swaziland. Umkhanyakude is the poorest district in KwaZulu-Natal with a scattered rural population of approximately 542 953 people. The Health Systems Trust reported that there were large numbers of orphans and households run by young children due to the high incidence of HIV/AIDS in the area34. The Province has an estimated HIV/AIDS prevalence rate of 37.5%, which is the highest in the country35. The District has an unemployment rate of 54% and more than half of the households lack potable water and sanitation, which contribute to frequent cholera outbreaks. These overlapping factors have contributed to human vulnerability in Umkhanyakude to a range of environmental factors.


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Source: HSRC (2004)14, Census 2001 Map 10.2: Percentage of households with access to water in the dwelling or stand


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Source: HSRC (2004)14, Census 2001 Map 10.3: Poverty rate in Umkhanyakude District Council, KwaZulu-Natal

Source: HSRC (2004)14, Census 2001 Map 10.4: Percentage of households with access to piped water in yard, Umkhanyakude District Council, KwaZulu-Natal


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Source: HSRC (2004)14, Census 2001 Map 10.5: Number of females per male, Umkhanyakude District Council, KwaZulu-Natal As indicated earlier, female-headed households and females in rural areas are over-represented among the poor. These are likely to be rural-based, where poverty is concentrated, with fewer adults of working age, higher female unemployment rates, and the persisting wage gap between male and female earnings36. A typical reason for this higher female population is a result of temporary male migration in search of employment. Gender plays a significant role in different vulnerabilities as women are often more vulnerable than men to HIV infection (refer to Chapter 2). In southern Africa, it is estimated that 1.2 women contract HIV for every man infected12.

Umkhanyakude is thus vulnerable to a number of possible shocks including those health related and propelled by environmental change. The World Health Organization estimates that 1 million people die from malaria every year with 90% of these deaths occurring in Africa, and mostly in children under the age of five37. The Anopheles mosquito, the host carrier of malaria, thrives in tropical and sub-tropical conditions such as that of Umkhanyakude. The district is well known for having the highest malaria incidence in South Africa34, with the poorly controlled malaria in neighbouring Mozambique aggravating the situation. Climate change, and human activities which transform habitats and create conditions suitable for parasites and disease organisms to breed, have a significant impact on the distribution and prevalence of vector-borne diseases (VBDs). Climate change affects vector survival primarily through minimum temperatures, impacting the latitude and elevation of distribution, as well as the length of season permissive to transmission of VBDs.

Seasonal variation may result in some of the inhabitants of Umkhanyakude experiencing transitory vulnerability during the onset of rains, which increases the likelihood of water borne diseases and malaria. If predictions about increasing levels of rainfall in the eastern parts of South Africa become a reality in the future, then vulnerability to malaria may increase despite efforts to mitigate its spread through chemical control. Due to various malaria control programmes (including spraying with DDT, which had deleterious environmental effects), malaria was effectively under control in South Africa by the 1980s (refer to Chapter 2). However, a moratorium on DDT spraying, virtually a cessation of control programmes in Mozambique and Zimbabwe and the increased movement of people between South Africa and its neighbours were contributing factors in the resurgence of the disease. It should be noted that malaria cases are virtually confined to three


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provinces, namely Mpumalanga, Limpopo and KwaZulu-Natal. Malaria incidence is seasonal, peaking during the wet summer months. Malaria incidence has reduced since 2000, having peaked at 64 622 and having declined to 13 232 in 2004 (Figure 10.3). Deaths as a result of malaria declined over the corresponding period from 458 to 8538. The decline in malaria cases is without doubt the result of improved control mechanisms. However, the decline in the number of cases corresponds to relatively dry seasons following 1999 and 2000. Thus one can expect if normal, or above normal rainfall occurs in the malaria prone areas, malaria cases will increase again. Figure 10.3 further depicts the impact of malaria on the population and that of removing – and reinstating – DDT from its malaria control programme in 1996, when one of the worst malaria epidemics in the country’s history followed. It was only when DDT was reintroduced in 2000 that the epidemic was brought under control.

Further exacerbating this situation in north-eastern KwaZulu-Natal, the rapid increase in Tuberculosis (TB) is further compounding human vulnerability. For many years TB had exacted a terrible toll among specific segments of the South African population (refer to Chapter 2). For example, infections regularly occurred in sections of the Cape population spurred by the poor housing conditions and cold and wet winters in the province. In recent years, TB has become a major public health concern as the number of cases has increased dramatically. TB is now strongly associated with HIV infections, as the virus reduces the immunity of the human body, providing TB with an opportunity. Tuberculosis thrives in environments where people live in poor housing conditions.

Malaria Cases and Deaths - South Africa 1971 - 2003

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Source: Dr H. Vaughan-Jones, Ingwavuma Hospital, KZN. Figure 10.3: Malaria cases and deaths – South Africa, 1971-2003

There has been an alarming rise in the number of TB cases, rising from about 75 000 in 2001 to 116 000 in 2004, with KwaZulu-Natal being the most affected province38.

Health and economic stresses, such as those outlined in Umkhanyakude, impact on the social networks and relationships that enable household reproduction and social cohesion39. Income poverty, lack of access to natural resources and joblessness impact negatively on dependency ratios


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within households; labour market failure and the collapse of traditional male breadwinner roles exacerbate exploitative and abusive gender dynamics; the absence of men from household reproduction systems severely stress care chains; poverty, lack of access to public goods and the inability to enforce rights encourages the development of abusive and exploitative patron-client relationships. These social institutions are vital in terms of creating resilience to environmental change and other shocks. However, these intersecting cycles of vulnerability severely undermine poor people’s ability to develop livelihood strategies, adaptive behaviours and coping strategies that can result in long term sustainability and escape from poverty. 10.3.5. Case study 5: Formal and informal vulnerabilities to floods: living with

environmental risks When assessing vulnerability it is necessary to determine the suite of factors, both social and biophysical, that drive risk and vulnerability in a particular place. The first case study in this section explores the complex dynamics of an environmentally induced disaster. In this case the flooding in Alexandra Township in Johannesburg is presented, and argues that a sensitive understanding of the local context and setting in which potential risks unravel is necessary to fully understand vulnerability. Using the flood event of 2000, vulnerability in Alexandra is the product of political action (or inaction), lack of access to resources and information and is compounded by a failure to enhance active community resilience7. Vulnerability to hazards, in this instance flooding, is the product of the flood as a physical and socio-economic phenomenon and the set of factors that increase or decrease the ability to cope and adapt to changes wrought by flood.

Alexandra Township had an estimated population of 350 000 in 2000 living in an area originally designated for 70 000 people. The concentration of people, estimated in 1998 to be 34 000 people/km2, contributed to an overcrowded, degraded environment. The interplay of colonialism, capitalism and apartheid played a major role in shaping the social, political and economic setting that underpins vulnerability in the area and contributed to disaster risks in Alexandra. Alexandra has been one of the poorest and most impoverished of the black townships in South Africa. With ongoing and rapid urbanization in Johannesburg, the township has become over-populated and high urban unemployment rates have continued. Accommodation shortages, people living in hostels, backyard shacks, numerous informal dwellings and settlement in close proximity to the Jukskei River (Map 10.6) have been characteristics of the “lived” space of Alexandra7.

In January 2000, torrential rains occurred, leading to devastating floods in the middle of February across most of southern Africa. These extremes in weather, occurring in several parts of the world were attributed to the global La Niña phenomenon. La Niña, a result of cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the central and equatorial Pacific, can trigger, much like its counterpart El Niño, a host of weather-related impacts around the globe. Intense rainfall across Alexandra, double the expected monthly rainfall, resulted in extensive flooding particularly in the wider Johannesburg City area. The Jukskei River flooded affecting its west bank in particular, which comprised mainly informal settlements, many located below the 1:100 year flood-line (Map 10.6). Flooding of property led to considerable damage, with several hundred homes swept away. A number of other flood impacts have been recorded in Table 10.6.


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Source: Taken from SRK (2000)40 Map 10.6: Aerial photograph showing the proximity of informal settlements to the Jukskei River in Alexandra, Johannesburg Table 10.6: Classification of impacts of the Alexandra floods in 2002 Impact Type Example Direct Impacts • Destruction of infrastructure, especially roads

• Four deaths were reported • Loss of domestic animals, mostly chickens • Loss of food and clothing • Damage to vegetable gardens – loss of livelihood

Indirect Impacts • Loss of employment – people could not go to work • Children could not go to school, as some had to cross the river • Living in fear, anxiety and misery of not knowing what is going to

happen next • Injuries as a result of collapsing shacks • Sewage being washed away and possibly causing diseases such as

cholera and diarrhoea Source: Various Interview Respondents, Mgquba and Vogel (2004)7 Emergency response interventions were soon overwhelmed and stretched. Compounding this, social networks appeared to have been surprisingly weak despite a rich history of community activism in Alexandra. These networks are usually a key form of adaptation noted in poor

Jukskei River

1:100 year floodline


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communities facing similar risks. The case study reiterates that squatter households, with a lack of infrastructure, adequate sanitation, overcrowded conditions and with generally limited access to economic resources are often most vulnerable to environmental and other changes7. A lack of effective institutions and organization (either formal or informal) heightens vulnerability to risks associated with global environmental change. The lack of a government risk-reduction strategy prior to and at the time of the heavy rains, resulted in an escalating problem for many of the residents.

The second case study examines an extreme weather event that swept across the South Western Cape in March 2003, resulting in heavy rain and strong winds, which triggered flooding and storm-water runoff. The impacts to poor and marginalized communities, triggered by this extreme event, were diverse, with the greatest losses experienced by low-income housing residents whose houses 41. These were either unable to resist the rain or had storm-water drainage capabilities that could not manage surface run-off. The research undertaken in the areas affected underlines the critical importance of both local institutions and informal networks in mediating the impact of this extreme weather event. It highlights significant shortcomings, particularly in the institutional arrangements with respect to the support of poor households and communities affected by the event. While some communities received assistance through evacuation, relief and provision of Social Relief, many settlements were not even assessed. This haphazard response of key local institutions and community members included the absence of any formal warnings to residents that an extreme weather event was approaching. As a result, there was no monitoring of the impacts that were triggered by rain, flooding or storm-water runoff.

A consequence of the lack of a formally coordinated emergency response was that no standardized approach to assisting or evacuating households was applied within the declared disaster area. This resulted in significant shortcomings in the formal identification of households and communities that were affected by the weather event. The reliance on informal social networks for relief and assistance in the recovery phase was a feature of this crisis, reflecting a strategy employed by residents of poor communities on a daily basis and has been internalized within households and communities as a livelihood strategy.

The case study emphasizes that in order to minimize the impact of an extreme weather hazard, early warning and monitoring are essential to guide the pre-disaster planning and emergency response. Without adequate warnings, communities are often caught unaware with a limited opportunity to avert losses. 10.3.6. Case study 6: Climate Change in the Western Cape The South African Country Study on Climate Change identified the Northern and Western Cape provinces as being most at risk from projected climate change-induced warming and rainfall change42. The future climate of the Western Cape is likely to be one that is warmer and drier than at present. This compelled the Western Cape provincial government to commission a major study, entitled “A Status Quo, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of the Physical and Socio-economic Effects of Climate Change in the Western Cape”. This entailed a broad reassessment of the vulnerability of the Western Cape to climate change impacts, based on results of a range of climate models, and for a range of sectors. This study considered a range of hazards associated with climate change that would affect the livelihoods of people living in the region. These ranged from the prospect of increasingly poor health that will result from air pollutionn, heat stresso and the possibility of increased floodingp. n the projected increase in the number of inversions will trap pollutants in the atmosphere close to the ground o the number of very hot days may increase p rainfall events may become fewer but heavier


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Three key livelihood groups were thought to be the most vulnerable to climate change impacts in the Western Cape: coastal; informal settlements; and, rural livelihoods of marginal groups. An increase in intensity of heavy rainfall events, particularly in late summer42 would lead to increased flooding that could threaten large areas of the province. In Cape Town, many of the informal settlements are particularly vulnerable being situated on the Cape Flats where the high water table and inadequate infrastructure makes them vulnerable to flooding. Exacerbating this vulnerability, the quality of housing in informal settlements is often poor and therefore easily destroyed or washed away during a flood event. Landslides have become more frequent during flooding because settlement areas have usually been cleared of natural vegetation to create space to meet demand for building new dwellings and for fuel wood. As with Alexandra, the poor access to services results in an inability to cope and recover from such an event. The lack of tarred roads raises vulnerability in informal settlements in the case of floods in that dirt roads may be washed away, reducing access. Other related vulnerabilities include poor sewage and storm-water infrastructure, which could lead to stagnant pools of water and disease outbreaks. An increase in temperatures is also of great significance in informal settlements as it could be linked to increased fires42. Two main forms of fires have been identified in informal settlements - large fires destroying many dwellings and smaller ones affecting a few people but still leading to livelihood loss. One of the reasons that the frequency of fires is already so high is because of the housing density in informal settlement, which creates a similar vulnerability to that experienced in the densely populated banks of the Jukskei River in Alexandra. As with all the case studies presented, it is important to assess what resources exist (or are necessary) to enable vulnerable people to cope with and adapt to the shock, in this case of having their home washed away or burnt. Access to finance or to social networks is often important, particularly to respond effectively during a disaster and then to recover. The above report identifies limited social networks due to the large numbers of people that originally come from other countries or provinces in the Western Cape. The Cape Flats, for example, have experienced a population increase from in-migration from the impoverished Eastern Cape Province. This can limit the social networks that people have access to particularly when needed during disasters.


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Case study 7: Air pollution in South Durban There are vulnerable communities that are adversely affected by the low density, long term risks of living at close interface with the environmentqThere are also risks that are less easily detectable that arise directly from processes of modernity, including industrialization, often involving risks that are at the associated with the global environmental agenda such as global warming and climate change, and ozone depletion44 (refer to Chapter 8).

South Durban provides an important example of human vulnerability to the environment. This is the largest industrial centre of the Durban Metropolitan Area where the working class communities live in close proximity with chemical and other heavy industries. These communities are exposed to the health risks of living near heavy industry, which includes the nation’s largest petroleum refinery, its second largest concentration of the petrochemical industry, and a total of 180 smokestack industries (see Map 10.7). The complex land use mix is compounded by the geography of the area, with the topography being a basin, with frequent inversion layers and poor air circulation, resulting in accentuated air pollution problems. Issues of social injustice, together with the environmental injustice imposed on the communities due to the pollution levels, have resulted not only in severe ill feeling on the part of residents, but have also imposed serious constraints on future industrial development. The scale and scope of the air pollution problem in South Durban has been fiercely contested over the years with evidence on the existence of an air pollution ‘problem’ often contested43.

q Including ongoing problems associated with poor drainage, poor waste management, social violence, inaccessibility to economic, educational and social opportunities.


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From an environmental point of view, for many years there has been very little incentive for companies in South Durban to perform according to environmental standards. Despite a comprehensive framework of environmental legislation, enforcement in the area was weak due to severe capacity constraints. The weak legislation on air pollution has been called into question by the local communities and the media on a number of occasions. This situation was compounded by a lack of human capacity to monitor air quality. In 1999, there was only one air pollution officer for the whole of the province of KwaZulu-Natal. Since the early 1990s, the Durban South industrial basin has seen intensifying environmental activism, particularly by organisation such as the South Durban Environmental Alliance, an umbrella organisation that has been at the forefront of campaigning for corporate responsibility and pressuring local refineries and other industry such as the Mondi paper mill to reduce their pollution of Durban South. In an effort to find a sustainable solution to the poor air quality in the South Durban Basin, a Multi Point Plan (MPP) was initiated by government. The South Durban Basin Multi-point Plan received Multi-stakeholder endorsement in May 2000 and it received Cabinet Approval in October 2000. Key project areas of the MPP include the establishment of a modern air quality management system, undertaking a health study to characterise exposure levels, setting air pollution standards, phasing out dirty fuels in an attempt to reduce sulphur dioxide pollution and managing fugitive emissions.

LOCAL SCHOOL GASSED AS LEARNERS AND EDUCATORS ARE SENT TO HOSPITAL FOR FURTHER TESTS Today, Thursday 4th March 2004 at 12:45pm learners and educators at the Settlers Primary School, Merebank, as well as local residents were gassed out yet again. This occurred after a huge toxic release from the Engen refinery, from all stacks. The flare was visible from 10 kilometers away, near the city centre. Numerous complaints were logged at the eThekwini Emergency Services, as well as the South Durban Community Environmental Alliance (SDCEA) offices. On arrival at the scene, SDCEA members saw numerous casualties, including educators; learners and local residents treated by local paramedics (KZN Emergency Rescue Services). Metro fire and eThekwini Health Department was also at the scene. In total, at least 24 people were treated and six were sent to hospital for further tests and observation. As this gassing took place late in the school day, a number of learners left for home, before they were treated. This will probably result in a high absentee rate tomorrow, as a reaction may set in later today. This comes on top of the scientific health study conducted by the Nelson Mandela Medical School, together with the University of Michigan which proved that Engen, SAPREF and Mondi are the highest polluters. According to the study, 52% of the learners and educators are currently affected with asthma and 26% have persistent asthma, and both these figures are higher than international norms. Qualitative teaching time is going to be lost for both educators and learners on account of this gassing.


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An integral component of the MPP is the air pollution monitoring network that was deployed in early 2004. The network comprises eleven air quality monitoring stations measuring a range of air pollutants and 5 meteorological stations placed at various strategic locations in the South Durban Basin and environs. Data from the monitoring stations is used to check compliance with legislation and against standards for priority air pollutants. The air pollution data is available on line and hence monitoring will be used for forecasting episodes of high air pollution. This is a useful tool for air pollution officers to respond to complaints and to carry out short-term abatement actions to reduce episodic high concentrations. A second component of the MPP is a health study to determine how industrial air is affecting communities in the Basin and the surrounding areas, the severity of the exposure and most importantly, what steps should be taken to ensure that people living in the area are guaranteed a safe and healthy environment. The results of the health study were not available when going to press (October 2005). One of the remarkable achievements of the MPP is a 45% reduction in sulphur dioxide emissions, which is attributed to the phasing out of dirty fuels. The MPP has also initiated over a billion rand investment from those industries who have contributed to the sulphur dioxide reduction plan. Through further regulatory intervention it is anticipated that there will be further reductions in sulphur dioxide emissions over the next few years. The Durban South case study is a good example where participatory processes, involving stakeholders, the local community, government and industry was the pivotal component in making MPP a reality and most importantly, to deliver quantifiable results. One of the outcomes of the MPP is that government is considering other potential pollution hot- spot in the country such as the Vaal Triangle, with a view of declaring these Priority Areas under the new Air Quality Act and to possibly apply the MPP approach in dealing with air pollution in these areas., thereby reducing human vulnerability. Source: Census 2001, National Land-cover Database (Thompson 1996) Map 10.7: Proximity of population to industrial zones, eThekwini, KwaZulu-Natal


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10.4. AREAS OF POSSIBLE INTERVENTION Vulnerability can be reduced by promoting empowerment, investing in human resources, and fostering participation in public affairs and decision-making”45.

The interplay between changes in the environment and socio-political and economic issues, operating at different scales, is a critical area requiring more research21. In particular, there is a to understand what generates vulnerabilities and what enhances resilience, as well as people’s livelihoods in both ’normal’ and ‘stressed’ periods.

The dimensions of human vulnerability analysed include poverty, food security, health, education, and economic dimensions. These can act either as the constituent elements of vulnerability or, depending on the coping capacities and resilience of an affected population, can result from, or be exacerbated by, environmental change. Responding to human vulnerability in South Africa requires building on people’s own responses, providing a range of institutional support and promoting resilience and adaptive capacity of vulnerable people.

10.4.1. Building capacity through social capital and environmental justice In many of the case studies, social capital arose as a key element necessary for building resilience against environmental change. Numerous forms of social capital include relations of trust, reciprocity and exchange, common rules, norms and sanctions, social connectedness, social networks and groups46,24. The drivers of poverty, conflict and HIV/AIDS in particular, are linked to decreasing social coherence, and social capital and is one of the fundamental determinants of the escalating vulnerability across the region24.

The two case studies exploring human vulnerability to flooding illustrate clearly the importance of informal networks and the role of social capital in underpinning resilience. Social capital provides a base upon which an enabling institutional context can be built. “People’s own inventive solutions need to be released from the tyranny of a public sector institutional environment that often preoccupies itself more with hampering and blocking people’s efforts to devise new livelihood sources than encouraging and facilitating them to do so”47.

In the South Durban case study, access to environmental justice arose as a key prerequisite for the protection and realization of environmental human rights. The main issue is the lack of legal aid services to vulnerable communities to enable them to realize their rights in terms of environmental justice. Enforcement and protection of rights for the poor due to limited state resources, bad quality of services and limited access all provide challenges for reducing human vulnerability through a rights-based approach. Meeting such challenges would facilitate a norm whereby a situation involving a lack of clean water, exposure to hazardous pollution or inadequate early warning would be regarded as an abnormality and a threat to personal security. 10.4.2. Building resilience and adaptive capacity The huge costs and impacts associated with environmental change and its interaction with underlying human vulnerability highlights risk management as a potential key priority for South Africa. However, focusing only on improved adaptation to and mitigation of environmental change is not viable in a context where there exist multiple-stresses, high rates of poverty, high mortalities and reduced life expectancies associated with HIV/AIDS. The cumulative evidence for increasing human vulnerability to environmental change calls for a significant policy response and action on several fronts.


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Social responses have frequently focused mitigating the impacts of environmental change or natural disaster after the event, rather than on interventions intended to modify basic driving forces ahead of a potential crisis. The onset of conditions that give rise to threats and vulnerability can often be gradual or inconspicuous, as demonstrated by the regional food or livelihoods crisis of 2002. There is thus a need to find ways to link and couple environmental change risk-reduction and management with other risks as well as link such activities to ongoing development agendas.

Two types of policy response are possible: reducing the threat through prevention and preparedness initiatives, and improving the coping capacity of vulnerable groups to enable them to deal with the threat. Exposure to threats can be minimized by reducing the risk or the probability that damage will occur. Improving the coping capacity of groups at greatest risk can do much to reduce the damage caused by extreme events or environmental degradation. The ability to cope with threats includes the ability to absorb impacts by guarding against or adapting to them. It also includes provisions made in advance to pay for potential damage, for instance by mobilizing insurance repayments, savings or contingency reserves. Where a threat cannot be reduced or eliminated, adapting to it can be an effective response.

South Africa is committed to fighting poverty and improving the lives of the most vulnerable. Interventions addressing human vulnerability to environmental change must be translated into integrated responses, which reflect the inter-sectoral nature and processes of the causes and states of vulnerability. Because human well-being depends on the effectiveness of sustainable environmental management and the reduction of human vulnerability to environmental change and threats, responses aimed to address the negative impacts of environmental change should be quick, adequate and coordinated. 10.4.3. Vulnerability assessments and early warning One of the most effective responses to human vulnerability to environmental change is to strengthen mechanisms for early warning. Institutional preparedness can be a decisive factor in reducing vulnerability, as indicated in the Alexandra study. One of the key goals of vulnerability analysis is to identify the opportunities that arise from processes of change, including the ways that stressors can be transformed into opportunities for improving human security. Environmental change needs to be viewed as both a physical and social phenomenon. Famine and periods of food shortage require not only technical fixes, for example better early warning systems and meteorological science, but also substantial political will48. Addressing vulnerabilities within the global change context will take time, for it is usually the underlying circumstances in a situation and crisis that determines vulnerability, and in several cases these conditions and interactions are only beginning to be understood. Therefore it is essential that a constant commitment be made to achieving rigour in vulnerability assessments, paying particular attention to such issues as context, history, capacities, ‘normal’ conditions, training needs and community involvement.

Effective disaster management, with a strong emphasis on risk reduction, is an imperative for South Africa. Such a strategy will require careful assessment of past disaster losses and their development implications. South Africa’s Disaster Management Act (No 57 of 2002), creates such an environment through providing for an integrated and co-ordinated disaster management policy that focuses on preventing or reducing the risks of disasters, mitigating the severity of disasters, emergency preparedness, rapid and effective responses to disasters and post-disaster recovery. With the ultimate establishment of national, provincial and municipal disaster management centres, South Africa will be in a strong position to implement the requirements of the Act. This Act is considered to be one of the finest pieces of disaster management legislation in southern Africa and provides for an integrated and co-ordinated disaster management policy.

Linked to this, vulnerability assessment measures the seriousness of potential threats on the basis of known hazards and the level of vulnerability of societies and individuals. It can be used to translate early warning information into preventive action and is a necessary element in early


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warning and emergency preparedness. Ideally, the results should be incorporated directly into the long-term planning of institutions and governments, and should foster institutional responsiveness to increasing vulnerability, and action for disaster preparedness and mitigation. A recent exercise to map vulnerability in South Africa in a Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping System (FIVIMS-ZA) has, however, shown that there is a disconnection between the ‘science’ of risk reduction through vulnerability assessments and the ‘institutional capacity’ that can begin to implement and effect changes. The political will for changes such as twinning vulnerability and development efforts, enhancing resilience to various stresses, including climate variability, is present but the actual institutional design and architecture that this may require is still in its formative stages. 10.5. CONCLUSION This chapter has demonstrated that accelerating environmental change and continuing erosion of human capability is increasing threats to human well-being and putting South Africa’s sustainable development agenda at risk. The complexity of the change process makes assessing human vulnerability to both short-term impacts and long-term environmental change a difficult undertaking that requires a concerted effort from a range of sectors. Better understandings of the interplay of social and physical factors that determine human vulnerability need to continue to be developed in South Africa, to increase the ability to mitigate the potentially harmful impacts that might arise from environmental change. 10.6. REFERENCES 1 United Nations Development Programme (1997). Human Development Report. United Nations Development Programme, Oxford University Press, Oxford 2 United Nations Environment Programme. (2003). Action Plan of the Environment Initiative of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development. United Nations Development Programme, Oxford University Press, Oxford. 3 United Nations Environment Programme. (2002). Global Environment Outlook 3. United Nations Development Programme, Oxford University Press, Oxford. 4 Chambers, R. (1989). Editorial Introduction: Vulnerability, Coping, and Policy. IDS Bulletin., 20 (2): 1-7. 5 McCarthy, J., et al. (2001) Climate Change, 2001. Contribution to Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 6 Wisner, B., Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., and Davis, I. (2003). At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters. Routledge, London. 7 Mgquba, S. and Vogel, C. (2004). Living with Environmental Risks and Change in Alexandra Township. South African Geographical Journal., 86 (1): 30-38. 8 Brooks, N., Adger, W. N., and Kelly, P. M. (2004). The Determinants of Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity at the National Level and the Implications for Adaptation. Global Environmental Change., 15: 151-163. 9 Mason, S. and Joubert, A. (1997). Simulated Changes in Extreme Rainfall over southern Africa. International Journal of Climatology., 17: 291-301. 10 Hewitson, B. (2005 pers. Comm.). Climate Systems Analysis Group (CSAG), Department of Geographical and Environmental Science, University of Cape Town. 11 Chambers, R., and Conway, G. (1991). Sustainable Rural Livelihoods: Practical Concepts for the 21st Century. IDS Discussion Paper no, 296. Institute of Development Studies. Brighton, UK, University of Sussex. 12 Ellis., F. (2003) Human Vulnerability and Food Insecurity: Policy Implications. Forum for Food Security in Southern Africa, Overseas Development Group, Overseas Development Institute, London (www.odi.org.uk/food-securiy-forum)


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38 Department of Health. (2005) National Department of Health, Pretoria, www.health.gov.za 39 Du Toit, A. and Ziervogel, G. (2005). Vulnerability and Food Insecurity: Background Concepts for Informing the Development of a Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping System for South Africa. Project Report, HSRC, Pretoria. 40 SRK (2000) Alex Project 41 Disaster Mitigation for Sustainable Livelihoods Programme (DIMP)(2004) ‘The Montagu Floods’, University of Cape Town, Cape Town. 42 Midgley, G.F., Chapman, R.A., Hewitson, B., Johnston, P., de Wit, M., Ziervogel, G., Mukheibir, P., van Niekerk, L., Tadross, M., van Wilgen, B.W., Kgope, B., Morant, P.D., Theron, A., Scholes, R.J., Forsyth, G.G. (2005). A Status Quo, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of the Physical and Socio-economic Effects of Climate Change in the Western Cape. Report to the Western Cape Government, Cape Town, South Africa. CSIR Report No. ENV-S-C 2005-073, Stellenbosch. 44 Patel, Z. (2003). Power, Place and Peripherlization in Environmental Decision Making: A case study of South Durban, South Africa. Les Temps Modernes, Annee 58 (623): 252-272. 45 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2001). Climatic Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 46 Adger, W. N. (2003). Building Resilience to Promote Sustainability: An Agenda for Coping with Globalization and Promoting Justice. IHDP Update., 2:1-3. 47 Moser, C. O. N., (1998). The Asset Vulnerability Framework: Reassessing Urban Reduction Strategies. World Development, Vol. 26., No. 1., pp. 1-19. 48 Vogel, C. and Smith, J. (2002): The Politics of Scarcity: Conceptualizing the Current Food Security Crisis in Southern Africa. South African Journal of Science, 98 (7/8): 315-317.

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