human terrain analysis at george mason university (day 1)

Richard Heimann © 2011

Human Terrain Analysis GIS270

George Mason University !

Richard Heimann


HTA: A working definition!

he ‘[Spatial] Social Revolution’ in the Department of Defense and elsewhere...

!…a state of the discipline talk; what is HTA & what is it not?!

!HTA = Geography…but, how did things get so bad?

!The ‘Classic Debate in Geography’

GIS 270: Today’s talk


Human Terrain Analysis Definition:

(U) Human Terrain Analysis (HTA): A multi-int, multidisciplinary scientific approach to describe and predict spatial and temporal patterns of human behavior by analyzing the attributes, actions, reactions and interactions of groups or individuals in the context of their environment. HTA incorporates elements of Human Geography in a spatial, temporal context. It is one component of GEOINT.


HTAPP…Prior to 2010, a two-year Human Terrain Analysis Pilot Pro ject (HTAPP) that resu l ted in find ings and recommendations on how to best institutionalize human geography elements into GEOINT products and capabilities. !The pilot began the process of identifying and developing advanced methodologies to incorporate socio-cultural data analysis within a GEOINT context. Implementation of the HTAPP’s findings and recommendations enabled analysts to more effectively discover, validate, consolidate, visualize, characterize and model socio-cultural data in the context of the GEOINT analytic framework.


…what were the results?Human Terrain Analysis Pilot Project (HTAPP) produced two-day seminars to introduce emerging concept, terms and practical examples of Human Terrain Analysis.!The seminar addressed challenges associated with Human Terrain Analysis (HTA), examined spatial and temporal analytical methods, explored potential applications of HTA to intelligence issues, and identified implications of HTA’s contribution to GEOINT.!HTAPP also produced a white paper published in the Fall issue to the a classified tradecraft journal demonstrating the merits of human terrain analysis. The article analyzed voting data, as well as other socio-economic data using spatial econometrics methodology.


HTA Foundation Themes:!(U) Research indicates the following "themes" are common for all efforts to establish a foundational baseline of a specific Area of Interest. !1. Demographics (e.g., population characteristics and distribution) 2. Religion (e.g., groups, subgroups, facilities) 3. Language (e.g., groups, subgroups, spatial distribution) 4. Ethnicity (e.g., tribes, clans, affiliations) 5. Economics (e.g., businesses, livelihoods, trade routes, distribution networks) 6. Education (e.g., schools, literacy) 7. Land Use, Cover and Ownership (e.g., agriculture, herding, commercial/industrial) 8. Medical/Health Environment(e.g., hospitals, doctors, disease, infant mortality) 9. Groups (e.g., social, political, ideological) 10. Communication/Media Preferences(e.g., TV/radio coverage, newspapers) 11. Transportation 12. Significant Events (history)(e.g., conflicts, crisis, political changes)


Human Terrain Analysis!!

“You have to understand not just what we call the military terrain…the high ground and low ground. It’s

about understanding the human terrain, really understanding it.”

GEN David H. Petraeus, USA


• Geography is the study of the earth’s surface as the space within which human population live - their interaction with the environment and each other.

• Space is the unifying theme for geographers.• Geography is the science of space and place.• Geographers are interested in …

• Where things are located on the earth’s surface,• Why they are located where they are,• How places differ from one another,• How people interact with the environment.

• Geographers were among the first scientists to sound the alarm that human-induced changes to the environment are beginning to threaten the balance of life, but some of the notable contributions to geography have been on the part of non geographers.

GIS 270: What is Geography?


Despite having a highly education society, Americans are arguably the world’s most geographically ignorant people.!By comparison, children throughout much of the world are exposed to geographic training in both primary and secondary schools.!Most Americans learn what little geography they know in elementary or middle school.!In the United States, the last time a student hears the word geography is usually in the third grade.!Concern over geographical illiteracy led President Reagan to declare November 15-21, 1987 as the first Geography Awareness Week (a joint resolution of the One Hundredth Congress)

GIS 270: Geographic Literacy


GIS 270: Geographic LiteracyThe National Geographic Society released the Roper Public Affairs 2006 Geographic Literacy Study in May, 2006!510 interviews were conducted among a sample of 18- to 24-year old adults in the continental

United States between December 17, 2006 and January 20, 2006) The sample has a margin or error of +/- 4.4 % at the 95% confidence level

!Survey results … Over 6 in ten (63%) of those surveyed could not locate Iraq on a map of the Middle East

Nearly nine in ten (88%) could not identify Afghanistan on a map of Asia

Seven in ten (70%) could not find North Korea on a map, and 63% did not know its border with South Korea is the most heavily fortified in the world

Sizable percentages did not know that Sudan and Rwanda are in located in Africa (54% and 40%, respectively)


GIS 270: Geographic LiteracyThree-quarters could not find Indonesia on a world map and were unaware that a majority of Indonesia’s population is Muslin, making it the largest Muslim country in the world.!A third or more could not find Louisiana or Mississippi on a map of the United States.!Only 18% could correctly answer a multiple-choice question about the most widely spoken native language in the world. (5 Part Questionnaire) !Although half said map reading skills are “absolutely necessary” in today’s world, many Americans lack basic practical skills necessary for safety and employment in today’s world.!One-third (34%) would go in the wrong direction in the event of an evacuationOne third (32%) would miss a conference call scheduled with colleagues in another time zone. Recommended Link

2006 National Geographic – Roper Survey of Geographic Literacy

http://www.nationalgeographic.com/roper2006/findings.html



This college-level course introduces students to the systematic study of patterns and processes that have shaped human understanding, use, and alteration of Earth's surface. Students employ spatial concepts and landscape analyses to analyze human social organization and its environmental consequences. They also learn about the methods and tools geographers use in their science and practice.

Score Percent

5 11.6%

4 16.7%

3 21.9%

2 16.6%

1 33.2%

In the 2009 administration, 50,730 students took the exam and the mean score was

a 2.57.



http://www.benjaminbarber.com/bio.html


Geography had a number of problems, including: 1. It was overly descriptive:

Geography followed a set format for the inventory of physical and cultural features;

2. It was almost purely educational:Regions don't really exist;

3. It failed to explain geographic patterns:Geography was descriptive and did not explain why patterns were the way they were;Where attempts at explanation did exist, they favored historical approaches.

4. The biggest problem of geography was the fact that it was unscientific:…the Nomothetic & Idiographic debate in geography begins!…all in a time after WWII, which science and mathematics enjoyed unrivaled

importance



GIS


The common ground between information processing and the many fields using spatial analysis techniques. (Tomlinson, 1972) Tomlinson: Very General - ‘common ground’ A powerful set of tools for collecting, storing, retrieving, transforming, and displaying spatial data from the real world. (Burroughs, 1986) Burroughs: ‘tool box’ but how items are linked together. A computerized database management system for the capture, storage, retrieval, analysis and display of spatial (locationally defined) data. (NCGIA, 1987) NCGIA: DBMS for spatial data but adds analyze and display. A decision support system involving the integration of spatially referenced data in a problem solving environment. (Cowen, 1988) Cowen: Adds integration and decision support to solve problems.

GIS 270: What is GIS?


GIS 270: What is GIS?A map with a database behind it; a virtual representation of

the real world and its infrastructure. !


GIS 270: What is GIS?Spatial data (where)

Specifies location; stored in a shapefile (.shp), geodatabase or similar geographic file.

!Attribute (descriptive) data (what, how much, when)

Specifies characteristics at that location, natural or human-created stored in a data base table.!GIS systems traditionally maintain spatial and attribute data separately, then “join” them for display or analysis.

!


GIS 270: What is GIS?

Regular Lattice

Irregular Lattice

Irregular Lattice


GIS 270: What is GIS?Raster Model

Area is covered by grid with (usually) equal-sized, square cells; Regular Lattices.Attributes are recorded by assigning each cell a single value based on the majority feature (attribute) in the cell, such as land use type.Image data is a special case of raster data in which the attribute is a reflectance value from the geomagnetic spectrum Cells in image data often called pixels (picture elements)!Vector Model

The fundamental concept of vector GIS is that all geographic features in the real work can be represented either as:Points or dots (nodes): Cities, human sensors (like Tweets or Flickr), individual obs (e.g. crime incident).Lines (arcs): movement, connectedness, networksAreas (polygons): Countries, States, Census Tracts, Cities, Irregular Lattices - Multivariate in nature.


HTA/Social Science Revolution…


In 1998, the National Science Foundation undertook a program designed to develop the infrastructure for social science research. In the first round of competition one of the outstanding proposals was for a Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science (CSISS), submitted by the University of California, Santa Barbara, with Professor Michael Goodchild as the Principle Investigator. CSISS was to develop new computational and analytic tools for spatial data, facilitate the development of social science data achieves based on geographic data, train scientists in the use of the most advanced tools, and foster the development of the emerging community of social scientists who integrate spatial data into their research.

GIS 270: HTA/SISS gains momentum…


Citations using GeoDa increased from 42 in 2004 to 70 in 2007-08 and to 567 in 2009-10

!ESRI introduces regression tools at v 9.3, including

Geographic Weighted Regression (GWR)!GeoDa with more than 89,0026 downloads (May 2013)



Spatial Demography (1990-2003) 3yr rolling average

21% increase



Attended AppliedAnthropology / Archaeology 59 123Criminology 21 45Demography, Population & Health 98 227Economics 63 192Environmental Studies 18 33Epidemiology 11 27GIS 30 75History 7 10Human Geography 123 422Political Science 55 95Public Policy 17 80Regional Science 5 6Sociology 115 200Statistics 9 22Urban Studies & Urban Planning 44 133Other 31 99Totals: 706 1789

CSISS Residential Workshops (2000-2007)

Non - Geography Ratio: N= 553 (Attended) 69.2% N = 1292

(Applied) 60.5%



$30 billion industry (U.S. Labor Department)!Robert M. Gates in September 2007 authorized a $40 million

expansion of the program!Significant NSF Funding (e.g. CSISS)!

Demand for Spatial Analysis expertise in social sciences:!Growing volume of social science research in GIS, Spatial Statistics &

Spatial Analysis (Changing academic landscape)!Similar (to CSISS) programs being developed at Brown, Harvard, &

Arizona State University



http://www.ocpe.gmu.edu/programs/gis/human_terrain.php



http://humanterrainsystem.army.mil/Default.aspx



http://geodacenter.asu.edu/






































































































































Ph.D. Programs in Spatially Integrated Social Science



Spatial Structures in the Social Sciences



Human Terrain Analysis before it was Human Terrain Analysis.

GIS 270: Classic Examples


Yanktons a Band of Sioux - 1000 Souls

Here the different Tribes meet in

Friendship and collect Stone for Pipes.



GIS 270: Classic Examples F. Ratzel, C. Wissler, & C. Sauer: Culture Area Research and Mapping (1850’s)


Above Average

Below Average

Average

GIS 270: Classic Examples Henry Mayhew: London Labor & London Poor (1861)


GIS 270: Classic Examples André-Michel Guerry’s (1833) Essai sur la Statistique Morale de la France


Minard Map - French Invasion of Russia http://www.khanacademy.org/video/french-invasion-of-russia?playlist=History

GIS 270: Classic Examples Charles Joseph Minard: Mapping Napoleon's March (1861)

http://www.khanacademy.org/video/french-invasion-of-russia?playlist=History


“No. 34 is occupied by the widow of a boatman. He committed suicide and left her with eleven children. Some have died, and she has five here now, two of whom go to work, and three to school. She makes sailor jackets, but is nearly blind. Struggles hard for her children…”

GIS 270: Classic Examples Maps Descriptive of London Poverty (1899)


GIS 270: Classic Examples Slums of the Great Cities Survey Maps, Florence Kelley (1893)


GIS 270: Classic Examples Ellen Semple: The Anglo-Saxons of the Kentucky Mountains (1901)


GIS 270: Contemporary Examples


The Geography of the Nazi Vote: Context, Confession, and Class in the Reichstag Election of 1930 Author(s):

John O'Loughlin, Colin Flint, Luc Anselin Source: Annals of the Association of

American Geographers



STRUCTURAL COVARIATES OF U.S. COUNTY HOMICIDE RATES: INCORPORATING SPATIAL

EFFECTS*ROBERT D. BALLER



Paul Krugman loosely defines economic geography as the study of economic issues in which location matters. Economic theory usually assumes away

distance. Krugman argues that it is time to put it back - that the location of production in space is a key issue both within and between nations.

New Economic Geography impl ies that ins tead o f spread ing out

even ly a round the wor ld , p roduct ion w i l l tend to

concent ra te in a few count r ies , reg ions , o r c i t ies , wh ich w i l l

become dense ly popu la ted but w i l l a lso have h igher leve ls o f

income.

GIS 270: Spatial Turn


Paul Collier in his book The Bottom Billion argues that being landlocked in a poor geographic neighborhood is one of four major development "traps" that a country can be held back by. In general, he found that when a neighboring country experiences better growth, it tends to spill over into favorable development for the country itself. For landlocked countries, the effect is particularly strong, as they are limited from their trading activity with the rest of the world. "If you are coastal, you serve the world; if you are landlocked, you serve your neighbors.”


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bottom_Billion


In The Truly Disadvantaged: The Inner City, the Underclass, and Public Policy (1987), William Julius Wilson was an early exponent, one of the first to enunciate at length the spatial mismatch theory for the development of a ghetto underclass in the United States. Spatial mismatch is the sociological, economic and political phenomenon associated with economic restructuring in which employment opportunities for low-income people are located far away from the areas where they live.



• Do spatial perspectives draw on and contribute to theory in the social sciences?

• What can we learn about HTA/SISS using these classic and contemporary examples? hint:law

• Is there a community of spatial social science and can its growth be measured?

• Is there a systematic and repeatable way to approach HTA? hint:we will talk about this



GIS 270: QUESTIONS?!


Introduction to GeoDa (Lab: GeoDa Workbook (Chp. 1 – 3, Optional Chp. 5)

!60 minutes…

GIS 270: LAB

human terrain analysis at george mason university (day 1)

Documents

richard heimann

u human terrain analysis

elements of human geography

human geography elements

human population

geography gis

humaninduced changes

word geography