HSCB Investigators Conference1

Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling (HSCB) Program

Dr. Robert E. FosterDirector, BioSystems

February 3, 2009

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The Origin of HSCB investment

Broad DoD subject matter expert team (HSCB SPG study) identified 75 HSCB capability areas and found 73 areas with critical gaps, 37 of which had no investment.

Widespread agreement from all communities (Planners, Intelligence, Trainers, Experimenters) on lack of available and mature HSCB data, models and tools.

Success in Irregular Warfare relies most heavily on understanding the human dimension of red, green, and blue forces and how they influence warfare and SSTRO (References, e.g., OPLAN 7500, NSPD-44, DoDD3000.05, FM3-7, FM3-24).

In Irregular Warfare, socio-cultural issues propagate across strategic, operational, and tactical level.

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Products Anticipated

Validated general-use software applications (e.g., GCCS HSCB portals; SKOPE updates)

Data/Knowledge generation, data management Forecasting aids for Intelligence analysis, Influence Ops, and planning Theory-based analytics and modeling Ethnographic-socio-cultural reasoning engine Automated scenario generation for red, white, gray side experimentation

Domain specific human-computer interfaces Visualization of HSCB (e.g., DCGS human terrain visualizations; CJMTK products) Influence operations COAA tools Decision Aid and Situation Awareness C2 software

Science base and knowledge Theory/Understanding HSCB influences and resulting software models

Ethnographically-valid socio-cultural behavior models Computational models of societies in transition (strategic analyses for DIME) Valid methodology

Training Validated mission rehearsal content Interactive multi-cultural interpersonal skills trainer/bilateral negotiation Computer generated forces Advanced distributed learning software environments

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... unbiased, objective, valid science-based approaches to enable DoD Operations Planning, Information Operations, Analysis, Intelligence, Experimentation, and Training. It will create quantitative models & shaping tools that provide assessments, forecasts, options for courses of action (COAs), and decision support for understanding and reasoning about the human terrain of battlespaces.

HSCB will provide…

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Operational Customer Environments for HSCB Product Transitions

Training & Mission RehearsalOperations Planning

Analysts NotebookMAP-Human Terrain toolkitJoint Integrative Analysis and PlanningCapability (JIAPC)

Tactical Language TrainerBattle Command Knowledge System

Experimentation

Politicaldiplomacy

Information

Military

economic

Military

Economic

Social

Infrastructure

Information

Multinational experimentsJoint Doctrine Experiments

Intelligence/InfluenceOperations

Intelligence Analysis

Apollo/AthenaAnalysts NotebookSkope

Assymetrical software kitSituational Influence Assessment ModuleJCURE data collection system

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JFCOM

Army:Army Research Institute: - Leader adaptability - Training / Simulation ResearchArmy Research Lab: - Adv Decision Architectures - Joint Geospatial Enterprise ServicesNavy:Office of Naval Research: - SNA & CogSci Models - Assymetric Warfare

HSCB:- Distributed Common Ground Station (DCGS)- DIA & ODNI analysts (toolsets)- CENTCOM Operations Centers, COCOM Command & Control platforms- Combat training centers (JNTC, JRTC), Deployable training/mission rehearsal- JFCOM J9, JTF HQ, Mission Rehearsal and Training

Air Force:Air Force Research Lab:- Adversary Modeling- Predictive Intent

DoD

R &

E I

nves

tmen

ts

App

sH

SC

B ta

rget

s

OSD, DDR&E. STRATCOM:- Measuring Progress in Conflict

Environments (MPICE)- Integrated Conflict Early Warning

System (ICEWS)- Mapping the Human Terrain

(MAP-HT)- Sudan Study/SMA series

JFCOM:J9: SEAS (agent based M&S)

Training Ops Planning Experimentation

Army

HSCB HSCB

Air ForceA J

Intel/Influence Ops

Intel Analysis

ODNIN N

6.2/6.3

HSCB6.4

NSF: Social Science Theory

DHS

HSCB 2008

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HSCB 2009

• Army Research Institute (Leader adaptability; Training/Simulation research)

• Army Research Lab (Advanced decision architectures; Geospatial enterprise services

• Office of Naval Research (SNA & CogSci models; Asymmetric warfare)

• Air Force Research Lab (Adversary modeling; Predictive intent)

• US Army TRISA (JNEM; MINERVA)• USACE (MPICE)

Transition Targets• Army/USMC/SOF Distributed Common Ground Station (DCGS)• Army Battle Command Knowledge System• DIA, ODNI, IC analysts (toolsets)• CENTCOM Operations Centers, COCOM Command & Control platforms• Combat training centers (JNTC, JRTC), Deployable training/mission rehearsal• JFCOM J9, JTF HQ, Mission Rehearsal and Training • Army TRADOC, USMC PMATRASYS cultural training•USAF C2 Collaborative Experimentation Environment (Windtunnel)

DoD

In

vest

men

ts

Ap

pli

cati

ons

HS

CB

Tar

gets

Training Ops Planning Experimentation

Army

HSCB HSCB

Air ForceA J

Intel/Influence Ops

Intel Analysis

JN N

6.2/6.3

HSCB6.4

Non-DoD Coordination

•ODNI

•DHS

•DoS

•DoE (PNNL)

• JFCOM (SEAS)• SOCOM (Influence operations)• PACOM/EUCOM (Strategic Modeling)• JIEDDO (Soc Dynamics Analysis IPT;

Cultural Preparation of the Environment)• PA&E (X-Games)• DARPA (ICEWS; COMPOEX) • OSD JCTD (Mapping the Human

Terrain)• NSF – Social Science Theory

PROGRAM OUTCOMES

Approaches to National Security problems (IW, SSTRO) have a HSCB THEORY BASE

A deep understanding of DATA, DATA MODELS, and DATA ACQUISITION techniques/methods

Modeling Applications are TRANSITIONED to users

HSCB-enabled TRAINING available for USG personnel

BACKUP

DODHFETAG November 5, 2008 1010

KEY MILESTONES

FUNDINGPROGRAM MOTIVATION

DESCRIPTION• Applied research, demonstration and prototyping-- to

develop social science and theory ; to establish methods, metrics, analytical tools; to apply socio-cultural models for understanding human behavior dynamics and human terrain forecasting; and, to transition technology and methods into use for intelligence analysis, operations analysis/planning, training, and joint experimentation.

• Explore the generalization of work in applied economics, political science, and applied statistics to military planning for irregular warfare (IW)

• Guide MURI & STTR/SBIR investment to HSCB focus• Achieve TRL Level 7-8 technology transitions using BA3

demonstrations and BA4 prototyping• Performers: Extramural grants and contracts (competitive)

Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling (HSCB) Bundle

-- PE 0602670D8Z, PE 0603670D8Z, PE 0604670D8Z --

• FY07-Revalidate needs and gaps, establish program execution plan; issue BAA (BA2) and “call-for-whitepapers” (BA3)

• FY07- STTR & SBIR BAAs (10 topics total); repeat in 08-13• FY08 - apply DARPA REALWORLD to HSCB “cultural

awareness” training; provide software job aides for operational planners via Skope-like interfaces

• FY09 - apply initial computational models from MURI projects into DCGS-A use scenarios (C2)

• FY10 - apply theory of human social dynamics & behavior into JFCOM simulation environments

• FY08-10 – complete annual “shoot-offs”– e.g., of data collection strategies/infrastructures for computational models within “Skope” or other military planning systems

• 2006 QDR: Need for improved use of socio-cultural information in GWOT and Irregular Warfare (IW)

• OPPLAN 7500/CONPLAN 7500: Irregular Warfare

• DoDD 3000.05 (Stability, Security, Transition & Reconstruction): Provide research base for stability operations and planning.

• SPG (HSCB) study: Identified 37 critical capability gaps to supports strategic-to-tactical planning & operations.

• Most Pressing Military Issue (JCS): Increase & improve IW capacity in conventional forces (language, cultural, behavioral, HUMINT) & ability to model irregular challenges

See Current Congressional R2’s for budget profile

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6.1

Influence Ops TacticalOps/Ops PlanningIntelligence

Tactical StrategicOperational

6.4 (HSCB only)

6.2/6.3Tactical StrategicOperational

Influence Ops TacticalOps/Ops PlanningIntelligenceAFRLAFRL

AFRL DARPAODNI

ODNI DARPA

ERDC

NDU

ERDC

NDU

BA level

2008 Major Efforts

Tactical StrategicOperational

Influence Ops TacticalOps/Ops PlanningIntelligence

ARI ONR AFOSR

ARIONRAFOSR

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Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling Background

Recognized Operational Need:

“..the QDR acknowledges that victory in this long war depends on information, perception, and how and what we communicate as much as application of kinetic effects. These cultural and language capabilities also enhance effectiveness in a coalition setting during conventional operations.” Gen. P. Pace (2006 QDR: Commander’s Assessment)

“I asked my Brigade Commanders what was the number one thing they would have liked to have had more of, and they all said cultural knowledge.” Lt. Gen. P. Chiarelli (Dec 06)

“Must develop the ability to understand the complex human factors and must incorporate them into all facets of operations.” Maj. Gen. L. Freakley, CG 10th Mountain Div (Operational Needs Statement, Feb 06)

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Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling Background

2006 QDR: “….the importance of early measures to prevent problems from becoming

conflicts and conflicts from becoming crises (pp.17-18)” “..This war is both a battle of arms and a battle of ideas – a fight against terrorist

networks and against their murderous ideology (p.24)” “..considerably improved language and cultural awareness to develop a greater

understanding of emerging powers and how they may approach strategic choices (p.31)”

“..Human intelligence, language skills and cultural awareness to understand better the intentions and motivations of potential adversaries and to speed recovery efforts (p.35)”

“..foster a level of understanding and cultural intelligence about the Middle East and Asia comparable to that developed about the Soviet Union during the Cold War (p. 78)”

DoDD 3000.05 (Military Support for Stability, Security, Transition and Reconstruction Operations):

“Stability operations are a core U.S. military mission…given priority comparable to combat operations….”

“U.S. military forces shall be prepared to perform...stability operations tasks…Rebuild indigenous institutions…..bottom-up economic activity and constructing necessary infrastructure… “

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HSCB Categories of Anticipated Deliverables

Theory & science base: a military science of societies, cultures, and associated human social dynamics and behaviors

Data Models and Methodologies: techniques and procedures for data collection, management and dissemination Formal data models and enabling data collection tools Protocols for meta-data tagging Protocols for geospatial visualization for planners and analysts

Computational Models: software for Command and Control (C2), intelligence and simulation systems Validated models to support Human Terrain understanding within

existing military planning and analysis systems Software delivered to new and existing training systems Validated models that supports AOR-specific Joint Experimentation

exercises