human density and land use: variation among biomes€¦ · human density and land use: variation...
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Human Density and Land Use: Variation among Biomes
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Spatial Distribution of Humans
Top 400 urban areas. Population density North America 2000.
Population density in 1994.
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Spatial Distribution of Humans
The human footprint based on population density, land transformation access, electrical infrastructure. Sanderson et al. 2002
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Socioeconomic Drivers
Hypotheses? • • • •
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Environmental Correlates with Human Density
Sub-Saharan Africa. Balmford et al. 2001.
R2 = .64
R2 = .30
Great Britain. Evans and Gaston 2005
R2 = .32
Mexico. Vazquez and Gaston 2005
Global. Small and Cohen 2004
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Environmental Correlates with Human Land Use
Soil Fertility
Agriculture
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Human Density and Species Richness
NPP, vertebrate richness, and human density in sub-Saharan Africa. Balmford et al. 2001.
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Past
Present
Natural Resource Constraints •Agricultural suitability
•Water
•Climate
•Timber
•Minerals
Transportation •Rivers
•Coast
•Railroads
•Highways
Natural Amenities •Scenery
•Wilderness
•Public lands
•Outdoor recreation
What Factors Drive of Land Use?
Huston, M. A. 2005. The three phases of land-use change: implications for biodiversity. Ecological Applications 15:1864–1878.
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Past
Present
Natural Resource Constraints •Agricultural suitability
•Water
•Climate
•Timber
•Minerals
“Dirt is destiny”
What Factors Drive of Land Use?
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Past
Present
Natural Resource Constraints •Agricultural suitability
•Water
•Climate
•Timber
•minerals
Transportation •Rivers
•Coast
•Railroads
•Highways
Natural Amenities •Scenery
•Wilderness
•Public lands
•Outdoor recreation
What Factors Drive of Land Use?
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Past
Present
Natural Amenities •Scenery
•Wilderness
•Public lands
•Outdoor recreation
“Desperately seeking nature”
What Factors Drive of Land Use?
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Patty (Hernandez) Gude
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Table 4. The structure of the hypothesized models of growth in rural residential development from 1970 to 1999 was determined via exploratory analysis.
Hypothesis Description Model Structure
H1 Natural Resources Agriculture
H2 Transportation and Services Road Density + Travel Time to Hospital + Town Zone + (Town*Travel Time to National Park) + (Town*Education Attainment)
H3 Natural Amenities Distance to Water + Previously Isolated + (Isolation*Travel Time to National Parks)
H4 Encroaching Development Past RRD per section + Past RRD within 20 sections + Enc20*Enc20
H5 Combined Models All possible combinations of H1, H2, H3, and H4
What Factors Drive of Land Use?
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Methods: Statistical Analysis of Competing Models
• Exploratory analyses to identify best covariates per category.
• Generalized linear models, ranked by AIC.
• Exclude ¼ of private lands for model validation.
• Control for spatial autocorrelation.
What Factors Drive of Land Use?
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Model selection results. "k" is the number of estimated parameters per
model.
Model Structure k Delta AIC
Inf + Nat + Enc + Aga 14 0
Inf + Nat + Enc 13 88
Inf + Nat + Ag 11 425
Inf + Nat 10 459
Inf + Enc + Ag 11 1805
Inf + Enc 10 1825
Nat + Enc + Ag 9 2444
Nat + Enc 8 2459
Inf + Ag 8 3136
Inf 7 3156
Nat + Ag 6 3254
Nat 5 3275
Ag + Enc 6 4424
Enc 5 4425
Ag 3 6858
Ag = (H1) natural resource constraints; Inf = (H2) transportation
infrastructure and services; Nat = (H3) natural amenities; Enc =
(H4) encroaching development. a AIC weight equals 1 for the most inclusive model and 0 for the
remaining models; AIC value = -83765.
Gude et al. 2006
What Factors Drive of Land Use?
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Conclusion: Current land use patterns reflect integration of agricultural suitability, transportation, natural amenities, and past development.
Implications:
• The old model of economy vs environment does not hold.
• Natural amenities contributes to growth, hence conservation likely has economic benefits.
• Airports, schools, etc. are important also
• Counties can better predict and shape future growth with this knowledge.
What Factors Drive of Land Use?
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Anthropogenic Biomes of the World Ellis and Ramankutty 2008
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Ellis and Ramankutty 2008
Land Use Change Across Traditional Biomes
What can we learn about drivers of human settlement and land use from comparison of land use change among biomes?
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What can we learn about drivers of human settlement and land use from comparison of land use change among biomes?
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Balmford, A., J. L. Moore, T. Brooks, N. Burgess, L. A. Hansen, P. Williams, and C. Rahbek. 2001. Conservation conflicts across Africa. Science 291:2616–2619. Ellis, E.C. and N. Ramankutty 2008. Putting people in the map: anthropogenic biomes of the world. Front Ecol Environ 2008; 6(8): 439–447. Gude, P.H., A.J. Hansen, R. Rasker, B. Maxwell. 2006. Rate and drivers of rural residential development in the Greater Yellowstone. Landscape and Urban Planning 77:131-151. Evans, K. L., and K. J. Gaston. 2005. People, energy and avian species richness. Global Ecology and Biogeography 14:187–196. Sanderdon, E., M. Jaiteh, M.A. Levey, K. Redford, A.V. Wannebo, G. Woolmer. 2002. The Human Footprint and the Last of the Wild: BioScience, 52(10):891-904. 2002. Small, C. and J.E. Cohen. 2004. Continental physiolography, climate, and the global distribution of human population. Current Anthropology 2: 269-277. Vázquez, L. B., and K. J. Gaston. 2006. People and mammals in Mexico: conservation conflicts at a national scale. Biodiversity and Conservation 15: 2397–2414. Huston, M. A. 2005. The three phases of land-use change: implications for biodiversity. Ecological Applications 15:1864–1878.
Literature Cited