S. Hrg. 107-426

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION:

FEBRUARY 2002

HEARING

before the

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES

ONE HUNDRED SEVENTH CONGRESS

SECOND SESSION

March 8, 2002

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JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE

[Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Congress]

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES SENATE

JIM SAXTON, New Jersey, ChairmanPAUL RYAN, WisconsinLAMAR SMITH, TexasJENNIFER DUNN, WashingtonPHIL ENGLISH, PennsylvaniaADAM H. PUTNAM, FloridaPETE STARK, CaliforniaCAROLYN B. MALONEY, New YorkMELVIN L. WATT, North Carolina

JACK REED, Rhode Island, Vice ChairmanEDWARD M. KENNEDY, MassachusettsPAUL S. SARBANES, MarylandJEFF BINGAMAN, New MexicoJON S. CORZINE, New JerseyROBERT G. TORRICELLI, New JerseyROBERT F. BENNETT, UTAHSAM BROWNBACK, KANSASJEFF SESSIONS, ALABAMAMIKE CRAPO, IdahoLINCOLN CHAFEE, Rhode Island

CHRISTOPHER FRENZE, Executive DirectorROBERT KELEHER, ChiefMacroeconomist

PATRICIA RUGGLES, Minority StaffDirector

CONTENTS

OPENING STATEMENT OF MEMBERS

Representative Jim Saxton, Chairman ....................... ISenator Jack Reed, Vice Chairman ........................ 2

WITNESS

Statement of Lois Orr, Acting Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics:Accompanied by Kenneth V. Dalton, Associate Commissioner,Office of Prices and Living Conditions; and Philip L. Rones,Assistant Commissioner of Current Employment Analysis ..... 3

. SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD

Prepared Statement of Representative Jim Saxton, Chairman ..... .13Prepared Statement of Senator Jack Reed, Vice Chairman ........ 15Prepared -Statement of Acting Commissioner Orr, together with Press

Release No. 02-124, entitled, "The Employment Situation February2002," Bureau of Labor Statistics; Department of Labor ..... .16

Chart entitled, "Gross Domestic Product" ................... 43Chart entitled, "Personal. Consumption Expenditures" ............ 44Chart entitled, "Fixed Private Nonresidential Investment" ......... 45Chart. entitled, "Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls" ............. 46Chart entitled, "All Employees: Manufacturing" .............. 47

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION:FEBRUARY 2002Friday, March 8, 2002

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES,JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITrEE,

WASHINGTON, D.C.

The Committee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:30 a.m., in Room 311,Cannon House Office Building, the Honorable Jim Saxton, Chairman ofthe Committee, presiding.

Present: Representatives Saxton and English; Senator Reed.

Staff Present: Christopher Frenze, Robert Keleher, Colleen J. Healy,Brian Higginbotham, Patricia Ruggles, and Matthew Salomon.

OPENING STATEMENT OFREPRESENTATIVE JIM SAXTON, CHAIRMAN

Representative Saxton. Good morning. I am pleased to welcomeActing Commissioner Orr once again before the Joint EconomicCommittee (JEC) to testify..on the February employment situation.

The employment data reported today appear to reflect the end of therecession also shown in other recent economic data. Payroll employmentstopped its long decline, actually rising 66,000 in February, althoughpartially under the influence of some special factors. The decline of theunemployment rate in January was sustained in February, leaving its levelat 5-1/2 percent.

Last month, I noted the preliminary signs that indicated the economymay have bottomed out. Since this time, additional data have beenreleased suggesting that the economic rebound appears to be underway.A resumption of economic growth would be very welcome news for allAmericans, although it remains to be seen how strong and sustained therebound will be.

Nonetheless, the recent data have been generally quite positive. GDPgrowth in the fourth quarter of 2001 was sharply revised upward, withconsumption growth reaching six percent for the period. The Institute forSupply Management data suggest that manufacturing as well as serviceindustry output is now increasing. Personal income and consumptionhave both increased, according to the most recent monthly data. Theleading economic indicators have risen for the fourth month in a row.

The bottoming out in manufacturing output is encouraging since itsproblems signaled the outset of the slowdown in 2000. Housing and auto

sales remain strong, and other official statistics also registerimprovement.

Over the last month, the evidence has continued to mount that therecession has ended. However, the fragility of the economy, particularlyinvestment, remains a concern that justifies enactment of the economicstimulus package in Congress. Moreover, the economy remainsvulnerable to the risks of adverse international economic developments,high debt levels, security costs and other factors.

Given the recession and the events of September 11, the prospect ofeconomic recovery in the near future is especially impressive and reflectsthe remarkable resilience of the American economy and the Americanpeople.

In conclusion, what had been preliminary signs of economic recoverylast month have now been confirmed in other more recent data.However, we must be on guard against complacency. Congressionalenactment of an economic stimulus package would be a prudentinsurance policy against the potential for another slowdown in economicactivity.

And I will turn to Senator Reed for his opening statement.

[The prepared statement of Representative Saxton appears in theSubmissions for the Record on page 13.]

OPENING STATEMENT OFSENATOR JACK REED, VICE CHAIRMAN

Senator Reed. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. I want tothank Commissioner Orr and her colleagues once again for joining us.And as you indicate, there are encouraging signs that the recession isover. Chairman Greenspan last week indicated as much in his testimony.But there is a concern that this might be ajobless recovery. And so theseemployment numbers today - and those in the future - are particularlycritical to measuring the full effect of our returning and reviving theAmerican economy.

Today there are nearly eight million unemployed Americans andmore than four million additional workers who want a job but are notcounted among those who are unemployed. And more than two millionAmericans have exhausted their benefits since the start of this recession.In fact, we are approaching a record number of people who haveexhausted their benefits and are not eligible for additional benefits.

So it is particularly pleasing to me that this week the House movedto extend unemployment benefits after considering a series of proposals.

I think we finally arrived at a proposal which recognizes the need toassist the unemployed while also providing some prudent and effective,limited steps to further stimulate the economy. Hopefully, this provisionwill be adopted very quickly by my colleagues in the Senate.

And our task today is to ensure that we put this country on a strongand sustainable growth path; that we do, in fact, follow through andextend unemployment benefits to workers; that we continue to boost theeconomy, and we do so in a way that will not only revive our GDP, butgive back meaningful employment to millions of Americans.

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.[The prepared statement of Senator Reed appears in the Submissions forthe Record on page 15.]

Representative Saxton. I thank the gentleman. Commissioner,welcome, we are pleased to have you here today, and we are prepared foryour statement.

OPENING STATEMENT OF Lois ORR, ACTINGCOMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS:

ACCOMPANIED BY KENNETH V. DALTON, ASSOCIATECOMMISSIONER, OFFICE OF PRICES AND LIVING CONDITIONS;

AND PHILIP L. RONES, ASSISTANT COMMISSIONER OFCURRENT EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS

Ms. Orr. Thank you. Mr. Chairman and Members of theCommittee, as always I appreciate the opportunity to comment on thelabor market data, and I think especially today. We are reporting todaythat nonfarm payroll employment was up by 66,000 in February,following losses that averaged 146,000 a month between the beginningof the recession in March 2001 and this past January. The largestincrease over the month occurred in retail trade, but we suggest cautionin interpreting that figure as a sign of strength for that industry, as I willexplain in more detail later in the statement.

Aside from retail trade, nonfarm payroll employment on net was littlechanged in February. Employment did rise in health services, and a mildwinter helped boost the number of jobs in construction. There wereemployment declines in manufacturing, mining, wholesale trade, andfinance. The unemployment rate was essentially unchanged.at 5-1/2percent.

Looking in more detail at the data from our survey of employers forFebruary, job losses continued in manufacturing, a decline of 50,000workers, although that was about half the average pace of the prior 12

months. Employment in motor vehicle manufacturing increased by26,000 over the month, reversing a decline of similar magnitude inJanuary. Most of the February increase stemmed from the reopening ofautomotive plants that had shut down for inventory control in January.Nonetheless, compared to a year ago, employment in auto manufacturingis down 63,000. Elsewhere in transportation equipment, job losses inaircraft manufacturing have totaled 31,000 in the last four months, 8,000of which came in February. Sizable employment declines continued inprinting and publishing, which was down 13,000, and electricalequipment where the decline was 22,000. The February decline of14,000 jobs in industrial machinery employment was below the 21,000average of the prior 12 months. Primary metals and fabricated metalsalso had smaller employment declines in February than in recent months.The factory workweek edged up a tenth of an hour to 40.7 hours, andfactory overtime was steady at 3.9 hours.

Mining employment in February declined sharply by 6,000, withmost of the losses in oil and gas extraction. Since last September, the oiland gas industry has lost 9,000 jobs.

Job losses in wholesale trade, which numbered 15,000, accelerated-in February after two months of smaller declines. Most of that loss was

concentrated in durable goods distribution.

Employment in finance dropped by 11,000 in February, the first lossin this industry since last July. Within finance, job losses continued atsecurity brokerages, where employment has fallen by 45,000 since the

' industry's peak last March. On the other hand, employment in mortgagebrokerages was up in February, but only slightly. In contrast to thedecline in finance, real estate added 5,000 jobs in February, its firstsubstantial increase since last September.

With unusually mild and dry weather in February, we found thatconstruction employment increased by 25,000 after seasonal adjustment.This unusually mild and dry weather may have contributed to theemployment growth in heavy construction where the increase was 12,000and in special trade contractors, 14,000, particularly in theweather-sensitive concrete component of special trade. Within generalbuilding contractors, continued gains in residential contractors offsetnonresidential losses.

In February, retail trade employment rose by 58,000, seasonallyadjusted. And, of course, this is the point I was referring to at thebeginning of my remarks, that it is important to understand thisemployment change we are showing in retail trade. Large seasonal

layoffs, as we know, always occur in retail trade in January and February,following the holiday season buildup in the preceding months. If youwill recall, holiday hiring in late 2001 was well below normal. And thenas a result, there were fewer workers to lay off in January and February.These relatively small layoffs in January and February appear in our dataas seasonally adjusted increases, and over the two months they havetotaled 99,000. A clearer perspective on the industry's trend requires alonger-term view, which shows that retail employment is down by142,000 workers since last July.

Employment in services edged up by 40,000 in February. Gains inDecember, January, and February totaled 132,000, which followed lossesin October and November that were almost twice that amount, 245,000.In February, help supply services did not lose jobs for the first time innearly a year and a half, and we have seen consistent job losses everymonth in help supplies since September, 2000. This month, there is avery modest increase. Losses during that period of September 2000through January 2002 in help supply had totaled 669,000, and that is anindustry that in September 2000 had employment of approximately 3-1/2million. Modest gains also were posted in education, engineering, andmanagement services and hotels.

Employment in health services continued its strong growth trend,with an above-average gain of 34,000 jobs in February, with 13,000 ofthose jobs being in doctors' offices and clinics.

Within transportation, job losses in the passenger component of airtransportation have slowed dramatically in the past two months,following a decline of 87,000 in the fourth quarter of 2001.

Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers inthe private sector rose two cents, to $14.63 in February. This followeda gain of three cents in January, and that is a revision to the Januarynumber. Hourly earnings over the year increased by 3.7 percent.

Turning to some of the measures obtained from our CurrentPopulation Survey, that is, our survey of households, the unemploymentrate was essentially unchanged at 5.5 percent in February, as was thenumber of unemployed persons, which totaled 7.9 million. The joblessrate for Hispanics declined in February, while the rates for adult men,adult women, teenagers, whites, and blacks were little changed. Lookingat another measure of labor underutilization, the number of part-timeworkers who would have preferred full-time work rose by 255,000 to 4.2million, following a decline in January.

The labor force increased by 821,000 over the month, reflecting alarge increase in employment and reversing a very substantial decline thatwe saw last month; that is, in January. Both the labor force participationrate, which is at 67.7 percent, and the employment population ratio, at 63percent, rose over the month, offsetting similar declines in January.

In summary, the jobless change rate was essentially unchanged inFebruary at 5.5 percent, and the number of workers on nonfarm payrollsrose slightly in February after six months of losses that totaled 1.3million.

My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer any questions.

[The prepared statement of Ms. Orr, together with accompanying pressrelease appear in the Submissions for the Record on page 16.]

Representative Saxton. Thank you very much. Your statement is,as usual, very articulate.

I brought some charts with me here that I would just like to runthrough for just a moment, just to get your reaction to see if your take onthese statistics as depicted on these charts is the same as mine.

The first chart shows the trends in GDP over the last several years.And, of course, beginning in mid-2000, we begin to see diminishedeconomic growth as expressed in GDP. And finally in the third quarterof 2001, we actually saw negative growth. And, of course, the revisedGDP growth figures for the last quarter of last year are very encouraging,back in the positive territory for the first time.. This would be a positiveindicator of economic growth, would it not?

[The chart entitled, "Gross Domestic Product" appears in theSubmissions for the Record on page 43.]

Ms. Orr. Yes. Of course, we see the reflection in our productivitymeasures that we released last week for fourth quarter 2001 reflectingthat revision in gross domestic product; because if you recall last monthwe met, the GDP was up two-tenths, and with the revision that isreflected also.

Representative Saxton. We thought maybe the numbers that wesaw beginning in January were some kind of an anomaly, since theunemployment rate slipped back to 5.6 percent. But now in February wesee, as you put it, the unemployment rate remained the same. And I knowyou say that for statistical reasons. But the full number is a tenth of apercentage point lower than it was even in January, isn't that right?

Ms. Orr. Right. The difference is not statistically significant.

Representative Saxton. Right. I agree. And of course, we sawpositive numbers in employment data for February. That is another goodsign. And we look at something called the Diffusion Index, which is anindex that measures growth across the economic sectors in 353 industries,and we saw that last November that only 38 percent of those 353industries were experiencing growth. And in the February numbers, wesee that 48 percent, up from 38 percent just four months ago, are nowexperiencing growth. So that would tend to lend credence to the fact thatthings have changed some.

Ms. Orr. We haven't seen with the numbers we are releasing today,substantial growth in very many of the industries, but we have seensomething - stabilization, if you will, or substantial reduction in the rateof job loss.

Representative Saxton. We would like to certainly see thepercentage of the Diffusion Index above 50 percent. But 38 percent ascompared to 48 percent, we seem to be doing a little better.

Personal consumption during the last quarter of the year is also an.encouraging sign. We saw six percent growth in personal consumption.The last time we saw that was back in the second quarter of 1998. So notto overstate these numbers, or not to overstate these statistics, but we areseeing a trend here in our chart that would indicate at least a bottomingout in some growth as well, true?

[The chart entitled, "Personal Consumption Expenditures" appears in theSubmissions for the Record on page 44.]

We still continue to see problems, so we certainly cannot begin tocelebrate too strongly yet. As we see in the next chart, fixed privatenonresidential investment continues to be a problem. Can you comment?

[The chart entitled, "Fixed Private Nonresidential Investment" appearsin the Submissions for the Record on page 45.]

Ms. Orr. Well, certainly we see in our employment numbers innonresidential construction and in residential construction somecontinued strength.

Representative Saxton. The next chart also, on its face, looks likewe still have a problem with regard to nonfarm payrolls. However, thereis a trend that is fair and impartially unmistakable during the last fourmonths. We see that while nonfarm payrolls showed very strongweakness in each month for the last four, things seemed to have gottena little less bad. And in February, for the first time, we would have ayellow bar that goes above the line. Of course, the February numbersaren't on this chart, but the February numbers would show the trend that

began four months ago in terms of nonfarm payroll becoming less bad.And this time, for the first time, we would see a positive yellow bar goingup, again indicating that there is a trend underway.

[The chart entitled, "Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls" appears in theSubmissions for the Record on page 46.]

Ms. Orr. Actually with this month, it is the first time in sevenmonths that we have had an increase.

Representative Saxton. How long has it been since payrollemployment expanded as much as it did in February?

Ms. Orr. It is over a year ago. We had an employment increase of167,000 last February. That was followed by an increase of 59,000 inMarch of 2001, and then an April decline of 165,000. In fact, as I said,this month is our first employment increase in seven months.

Representative Saxton. And you are saying that since we have hada nonfarm payroll employment increase of this level has been since lastFebruary?

Ms. Orr. Yes.

Representative Saxton. I spoke about the Diffusion Index a fewminutes ago. Do you use the Diffusion Index for purposes in yourevaluations?

Ms. Orr. We do look at it. We look at a number of differentmeasures.

Representative Saxton. Do you have other indices that show thetrend that appears to be underway?

Ms. Orr. I would note that our measure of hours appears to havestabilized. But were you asking me about internal Bureau-produced datathat we use, or are there other outside or external data that we look at?We look at the full range of economic data that is issued.

Representative Saxton. I am trying to determine whether the trendthat we have seen from the charts, from your numbers, from theunemployment rate, is evident in other economic data? Do you haveother indicators that we haven't talked about here?

Ms. Orr. I don't know that we in the Bureau do, but certainly froma variety of other sources there are measures that seem to be consistentwith the data that you have in your charts and the data that we are issuingtoday. I would say, for example, orders for goods and services, forinstance, or evidence that there is decline in inventories.

Representative Saxton. House sales, existing house sales, arealmost at a peak in January. Is that a high for January or a high overallin terms of existing housing sales? There was a decline in employmentin heavy construction; is that correct?

Ms. Orr. Yes.

Representative Saxton. Is that consistent with the problems in thecommercial real estate sector?

Ms. Orr. There was an increase in employment in heavyconstruction in selected special trades such as concrete, as I mentioned.But among general .contractors, there is a decline in employment amonggeneral contractors. that are engaged in nonresidential construction.

Representative Saxton. Is there a reason that you can point to as towhy that has occurred?

Ms. Orr. Because folks aren't building buildings.

Representative Saxton. Obviously. You mentioned weather. Howimportant do you think weather was in this month's-

Ms. Orr. It-was our assessment.that the mild and dry weatheractually for -December,' -January, first half of February period, wassignificant in helping to account for the increase in employment inFebruary.

Representative Saxton. So, while we have seen a trend here - firstof all, these numbers are nowhere near as strong as they could have been.So, while we see a trend, and there are other factors that may be at play,like weather, maybe it is not time quite to pop the cork in the champagnebottle and celebrate that robust growth is here again.

Ms. Orr. We were talking about champagne on the way over, andwe weren't ready to pop the cork either.

Representative Saxton. Mr. English?

Representative English. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I appreciate theopportunity to participate in today's hearing. And I guess while I amappreciative of the fact that some of these trends are very encouraging forthe long hall, I am constrained to note that in my part of westernPennsylvania, we are still very much in a recession. And it is basedparticularly with what is going on in the manufacturing sector, to whichpoint I want to direct all of my questions. Commissioner Orr, what hasbeen the trend in manufacturing employment since July of 2000 andspecifically how many jobs in this sector have been lost in this timeframe and in what industries do these declines seem to be concentrated?

Representative Saxton. If I may just ask the gentleman to yield fora minute, we have a chart that speaks to this issue. I think it is thenext-to-the-last chart.

[The chart entitled, "All Employees: Manufacturing" appears in theSubmissions for the Record on page 47.]

Representative English. I am grateful to the gentleman for thevisuals.

Ms. Orr. You asked the number of manufacturing jobs that havebeen lost?

Representative English. General trends in manufacturingemployment since July 2000, how manyjobs have been lost in this sectorin this time frame, and in what industries do these declines seem to beconcentrated?

Ms. Orr. Between July and this February, manufacturingemployment declined by approximately 1.7 million. I would also notethere are many who would say that a number of jobs also inmanufacturing, to be found in the help supply industry, you know,declined very substantially between - as I noted earlier, betweenSeptember 2000 and currently.

With respect to the industries in which we had declines, themanufacturing industries in which there were declines looking at thisperiod, they have really spread across almost all manufacturing industrieswith, in many instances, the larger industries incurring larger losses. Letme just note a few of those industries in manufacturing that accounted fora large share of the loss: electronic equipment, industrial machinery,printing and publishing, air transportation, primary metals, fabricatedmetals, textiles.

So the losses were to be found certainly in durable goodsmanufacturing, but also to a somewhat lesser extent in nondurable goods.Industries such as textiles, for example, have been in a state of decliningemployment for I think decades , a generation.

Representative English. I can understand that in the case of textiles,we are looking at more of a long-term trend. But I am also concernedthat some of the manufacturing sectors which we have managed to retainon shore and in which we are competitive seem to be suffering significantjob losses. Do you have any evidence to suggest whether these job lossesin manufacturing are temporary or permanent?

Ms. Orr. Well, looking at the long haul as far as manufacturing isconcerned, you know, we have continued to see manufacturing as a

smaller proportion of total employment in the nation. For example, inour every two years' employment projections, we are projecting 10 yearsfrom now employment manufacturing will be similar in size to what it isnow. So overall, you know, we have seen declines in manufacturing, andbased on our projections, would not expect to see vast kinds of increasesin employment.

I would note that during the 1990s, we saw a sizable increase inmanufacturing employment in this country, but with the job losses inmanufacturing that have occurred since 1998, I would say employmentright now in manufacturing is fairly similar in size to what it was at thebeginning of the nineties.

Representative English. So actually there have been ebbs and flowswithin manufacturing employment. Isn't it true that manufacturing is oneof the last sectors to recover during a recession normally, given, at leastfor some areas of manufacturing, the long lead times in manufacturingorders?

Mr. Rones. Historically, what employers tend to do is they startincreasing hours in manufacturing and that allows for the flexibility forthat period when you are not really certain whether you are going to seea sustained increase in demand. More recently, employers have been lesslikely to use hours - that is, hours have been less cyclical andemployment has been more cyclical.

I would say we have a flattening or maybe even a little increase inmanufacturing hours in the last few months, and that would be a positivesign.

Representative English. You go ahead.

Ms. Orr. And we sometimes do see some of these jobs showing upin other industries. People that are employed in manufacturing, in reality,may be in help supply. And to the extent that manufacturers increase thecontracting out of a lot of the services or functions they would haveperformed by themselves, we can see a decline in manufacturing that, iforganizations were structured differently, might not see as a large adecline.

Representative English. What has been the recent trend in theDiffusion Index for manufacturing measuring the breadth of monthlyemployment gains in that sector, and what was its level a year agorelative to today?

Mr. Rones. In manufacturing - and this is the full range of specificindustries - it is 136 that we include in our Diffusion Index. Right nowwe are at 41 percent. That is better than a year ago when we were at 32

percent. But I note that we haven't been above that 50 percent mark thatthe Chairman described earlier since the middle of 2000. So that, ofcourse, corresponds with this long period of sustained - actually thispredates the period of sustained losses in manufacturing.

Representative English. I thank the panelists for their testimony.It is most helpful. And I thank you for the opportunity to inquire, Mr.Chairman.

Representative Saxton. Thank you.Commissioner, we appreciate you being here again. I have no further

questions at this point. I would just like to take this opportunity to saythat. A function of the Joint Economic Committee is to look at a varietyof functions of the Federal Government, and try to determine how thosefunctions are affecting the economy, or whether they are affecting theeconomy in any way. And certainly as we hope that we are seeing thebeginning of the end of the recession, we need to recognize the role thatthe Federal Reserve has played in bringing about monetary policy thathas set the stage for economic growth, pointing of course to relativelylow interest rates.

The Congress, in addition, on a second front, reduced tax rates notlong ago, not to everybody's liking, maybe not to anybody's liking,depending on your point of view, but marginal rates today are lower thanthey were earlier.

We have also seen some restraint in government spending, until theevents of September 11 at least, and we hope we can continue along thatpath.

We also during the last decade or so have seen some very robustincreases in investment, in technological developments that have addedto productivity, and of course we continue to promote open markets andinternational trade, which have again played a part in setting the stage forwhat we hope we see here; that is, the beginning of another period ofeconomic growth.

So we thank you for bringing this news to us today. We look forwardto seeing you again next month. Mr. Rones and Mr. Dalton, thank you.And I thank my friend, Mr. English, for his participation.

[Whereupon, at 10:10 a.m., the Committee was adjourned.]

SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD

THE PREPARED STATEMENT OFREPRESENTATIVE JIM SAXTON, CHAIRMAN

lampleased to welcome Acting Commissioner Orr once again beforethe Joint Economic Committee (JEC) to testify on the Februaryemployment situation.

The employment data reported today appear to reflect the end of therecession also shown in other recent economic data. Payroll employmentstopped its long decline, actually rising 66,000 in February, althoughpartially under the influence of special factors. The decline of theunemployment rate in January was sustained in February, leaving its levelat 5.5 percent.

Last month I noted the preliminary signs that indicated the economymay have bottomed out. Since this time additional data have beenreleased suggesting that an economic rebound appears to be underway.A resumption of economic growth would be very welcome news for allAmericans, although it remains to be seen how strong and sustained therebound will be.

Nonetheless, the recent data have been generally quite positive. GDPgrowth in the fourth quarter of 2001 was sharply revised upward, withconsumption growth reaching six percent in that period. The Institute forSupply Management data suggest that manufacturing as well as serviceindustry output is now increasing: Personal income and consumptionhave both increased according to the most recent monthly data. Theleading economic indicators have risen for four months in a row.

The bottoming out in manufacturing output is encouraging since itsproblems signaled the outset of the slowdown in 2000. Housing and autosales remain strong, and other official statistics also registerimprovement. Over the last month the evidence has continued to mountthat the recession has ended.

However, the fragility of the economy, particularly investment,remains a concern that justifies enactment of economic stimuluslegislation by the Congress. Moreover, the economy remains vulnerableto risks from adverse international economic developments, high debtlevels, security costs, and other factors.

Given the recession and the events of September 11, the prospect ofeconomic recovery in the near future is especially impressive and reflectsthe remarkable resilience of the American economy and people.

79-363 02-2

14

In conclusion, what had been preliminary signs ofeconomic recoverylast month have now been confirmed in other more recent data. However,we must be on guard against complacency. Congressional enactment ofeconomic stimulus legislation would be a prudent insurance policyagainst the potential for another slowdown in economic activity.

PREPARED STATEMENT OF

SENATOR JACK REED, VICE CHAIRMANThank you very much, Mr. Chairman. I want to thank Commissioner

Orr and her colleagues once again for joining us. And as you indicate,there are encouraging signs that the recession is over. ChairmanGreenspan last week indicated as much in his testimony. But there is aconcern that this might be a jobless recovery. And so these employmentnumbers today - and those in the future - are particularly critical tomeasuring the full effect of our returning and reviving Americaneconomy.

Today there are nearly eight million unemployed Americans andmore than four million additional workers who want a job but are notcounted among those who are unemployed. And more than two millionAmericans have exhausted their benefits since the start of this recession.In fact, we are approaching a record number of people who haveexhausted their benefits and are not eligible for additional benefits.

So it is particularly pleasing to me that this week the House movedto extend unemployment benefits after considering a series of proposals.I think we finally arrived at a proposal which recognizes the need toassist the unemployed while also providing some prudent and effective,limited steps to further stimulate the economy. Hopefully, this provisionwill be adopted very quickly by my colleagues in the Senate.

And our task today is to ensure that we put this country on a strongand sustainable growth path; that we do, in fact, follow through andextend unemployment benefits to workers; that we continue to boost theeconomy, and we do so in a way that will not only revive our GDP, butgive back meaningful employment to millions of Americans.

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

FOR DELIVERY: 9:30 A.M., E.S.T.FRIDAY, MARCH 8, 2002

Advance copies of this statement are made available to thepress under lock-up conditions with the explicitunderstanding that the data are embargoed until 8:30 a.m.Eastern Standard Time.

Statement of

Lois OrrActing Commissioner

Bureau of Labor Statistics

before the

Joint Economic Committee

UNITED STATES CONGRESS

Friday, March 8, 2002

Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee:

I appreciate this opportunity to comment on the labor

market data that we released this morning.

We are reporting today that nonfarm payroll employment

was up by 66,000 in February, following losses that

averaged 146,000 a month between the beginning of the

recession in March 2001 and January 2002. The largest

increase occurred in retail trade, but we suggest caution

in interpreting that figure as a sign of strength for that

industry, as I will explain in more detail later in this

statement. Aside from retail trade, nonfarm payroll

2

employment on net was little changed in February.

Employment did rise in health services, and mild weather

helped boost the number of jobs in construction. There

were employment declines in manufacturing, mining,

wholesale trade, and finance. The unemployment rate was

essentially unchanged at 5.5 percent.

Looking in more detail at the data from our survey of

employers for February, job losses continued in

manufacturing (-50,000), although at about half the average

pace of the prior 12 months. Employment in motor vehicle

manufacturing increased by 26,000 over the month, reversing

a decline of similar magnitude in January. Most of ,the

February increase stemmed from the reopening of automobile

plants that had shut down for inventory control in January.

Still, employment in auto manufacturing is down 63,000 over

the year. Elsewhere in transportation equipment, job

losses in aircraft manufacturing have totaled 31,000 in the

last 4 months, 8,000 of which came in February. Sizable

employment declines continued in printing and publishing

(-13,000) and in electrical equipment (-22,000). The

February decline of 14,000 jobs in industrial machinery

employment was below the 21,000 average of the prior 12

months. Primary metals and fabricated metals also had

smaller employment declines in February than in recent

3

months. The factory workweek edged up 0.1 hour to 40.7

hours, and factory overtime was steady at 3.9 hours.

Mining employment declined sharply in February

(-6,000), with most of the losses in oil and gas

extraction. Since last September, the oil and gas industry

has lost 9,000 jobs.

Job losses in wholesale trade (-15,000) accelerated in

February after 2 months of smaller declines. Most of the

loss was concentrated in durable goods distribution.

Employment in finance fell by 11,000 in February, the

first loss in this industry since last July. Within

finance, job losses continued in security brokerages, where

employment has fallen by 45,000 since the industry's peak

last March. Employment in mortgage brokerages was up

slightly in February. In contrast to the decline in

finance, real estate added 5,000 jobs, its first

substantial increase since September.

Construction employment increased by 25,000 in

February, after seasonal adjustment, partly offsetting a

large decline in January. Unusually mild and dry weather

may have contributed to employment growth in heavy

construction (12,000) and special trade contractors

(14,000) -- particularly in the weather-sensitive concrete

component. Within general building contractors, continued

4

gains in residential contractors offset nonresidential

losses.

In February, retail trade employment rose by 58,000

(seasonally adjusted) . Large seasonal layoffs always occur

in retail trade in January and February, following the

ho1iday-season employment buildup in the preceding months.

Holiday hiring in late 2001, however, was well below

normal, As a result, there were fewer workers to lay off

in January and February. The relatively small layoffs in

those 2 months appear in our data as seasonally adjusted

increases, totaling 99,000. A clearer perspective on the

industry's trend requires a longer-term view, which shows

that retail employment is down by 142,000 since last July.

Employment in services edged up by 40,000 in February.

Gains in December, January, and February totaled 132,000,

following losses in October and November that totaled

245,000. In February, help supply services did not lose

jobs for the first time in nearly a year and a half.

Losses from September 2000 through January 2002 had totaled

669,000. Modest gains also were posted in education,

engineering and management services, and hotels.

Employment in health services continued its strong growth

trend, with an above-average gain of 34,000 jobs in

February, including 13,000 in doctors' offices and clinics.

N 5

Within transportation, job losses in the passenger

component of air transportation have slowed dramatically in

the past 2 months, following a decline of 87,000 in the

fourth quarter of 2001.

Average hourly earnings of production or

nonsupervisory workers in the private sector-rose 2 cents

to $14.63 in February. This followed a gain of 3 cents in

January (as revised). Hourly earnings increased by 3.7

percent from February 2001.

Turning to some of the measures obtained from the

survey of households, the unemployment rate was essentially

unchanged at 5.5 percent in February, as was the number of

unemployed persons, at 7.9 million. The jobless rate for

Hispanics declined in February, while the rates for adult

men, adult women, teenagers, whites, and blacks were little

changed. Looking at another measure of labor

underutilization, the number of part-time workers who would

have preferred full-time work rose by 255,000 to 4.2

million, following a decline in January.

The labor force increased by 821,'000, reflecting a

large increase in employment (851,000) in February and

reversing a substantial decline in January. Both the labor

force participation rate (66.7 percent) and the employment-

21

6

population ratio (63.0 percent) rose over the month,

offsetting declines in January.

To summarize, the jobless rate was essentially

unchanged in February at S. 5 percent. The number of

workers on nonfarm payrolls rose slightly in February,

after 6 months of losses that totaled 1.3 million.

My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer your

questions.

22

Nenws StatesBureau of Labor Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212

Technical information:Householddata:

Establishment data:

Media contact:

(202) 691-6378httpJ/www bls.gov/cps/

691-6555httpJ/www.bis.gov/ces/

691-5902

USDLO2-124

Transmission of material in this release isembargoed until 8:30 A.M. (EST),Friday, March 8, 2002.

Chart 2. Nontan payrof employment, seaaly adjusted.mns March 1999 -Februay 2002

00'

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: FEBRUARY 2002

The unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.5 percent in February, the Bureau of LaborStatistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Nonfarm payroll employment was up by 66,000in February. following several months of large job losses. February gains in several industries, however. canbe attributed to special factors. Manufacturing employment continued to decline, although at a slower pace.

Chart 1 Unemployment rate. seasonally adtleed,Per Marh 1999 - February 2002

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The number of unemployed persons (7.9 million) and the unemployment rate (5.5 percent) were essen-tally unchanged in February, following declines in both measures in January. The unemployment rate forHispanics fell by a percentage point to7.1 percent in February. Jobless rates for the other major workergroups-adult men (5.0 percent), adult women (5.0 percent), teenagers (15.6 percent), whites (4.9 percent),and blacks (9.6 percent)-were little changed. (See tables A-I and A-2.)

Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

Total employment rose by 851,000 to 134.3 million in February, after seasonal adjustment; this increasemore than offset a large decline in January. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.4 percentagepoint in February, returning to its December level of 63.0 percent. (See table A-1.)

In February, the number of persons working part time despite their preference for full-time work in-creased by 255,000 to4.2 million. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons hadbeen at about that level from September through December. (See table A-4.)

Table A. Major iniatr o-h-r m.,are se6ity, seasona adjmstd

(Numbers in thousands)

Quar-rl aveag Monthly dat Jan.

Caegory 2001 2001 2007 Feb

III IV Du an Feb change

HOU;SENWl.D DATA Labor foresau

Civikia tbor forc .....

Empl oyn ot...

Unaloymnt

All V workers . .

Adult .om .n .

Tcenagrs

W hise ........

Black - !.......

ESTABLISHlMENT DATA

Noofrmempliomnt

Goods-producing

Coruion.o

Servie-prvod.cong'.

R6.i trad .

Ser ices . ......- -

Totai.r.v......

Overtime

Totalpriva .......... . .....

Average hourly earnings.

toa prit. ....

Averge Wekly earngs,

tow priv te ..............

141.700 142.291 142.314 f4 .390 142,211 521

124.339 134,308 134,055 33,468 134,319 8$1

6,860 7.913 $.259 7.922 7.891 .31

70.438 70467 70613 71699 70.995 704

Unemployment rates

41 .6 58 5 6 5 5 .0A

4 T 5.0 52 52 5 0 -.2

42 10 5 2 418 5.0 2

15.2 158 167 16.1 15.6 5

4.2 4.9 5. 0 4.9 .3.7 9.9 02 9.8 9 6 -26.4 75 7 9 .1 7.1 -1.0

132.353 131510 131,321 p131.195 p131.26t p6 6

24,991 24.592 24.453 p24.27

8 p24.247 p-31

6.W66 6.81 6,850 p6.79

7 pb.812 p25

17.556 17,174 17,039 p!6

.929 pl6

7 9 p-50

101367 106.918 106.868 p106.917 plO7.014 p

97

23.575 23.404 23,365 p23.406 p23,4

64

P58

41210 40,947 40.937 p40.90 p41.02! p40

20.973 5.022 2 106! p21,06 p2;.08 920

Hoursf .oo.A'

41 34 1 34.1 p34.0 p34 p0

40 40. 40.6 p40, 6 60 7 pD I

40 3. 3. p3 9 p)9 .po

Indees of aregue wekly hours 1982=100)

1503 141.8 p48 14. I8.5 p02

faringsa~

S14.40 $14.01 $1458 p51461 p$2463 pO02

490.93 494.99 497.18 p49820 p4 9

8.88 P681 includes other , ndustries. not shown sety

Data relate wo pnvute pboducon or nonsupervisory workers

p-preliminary.

24

3

Following a decline of 924,000 in January, the civilian labor force increased by 821,000 in February, to142.2 million. The labor force participation rate -- the proportion of the population that is either working orlooking for work-increased by 0.3 percentage point, to 66.7 percent. (See table A-1.)

Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

In February, the number of persons not in the labor force who reported that they currently want ajobdecreased by 449.000. to 4.4 million (seasonally adjusted); this group accounted for 6.2 percent of allpersons not in the labor force. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they had notsearched for work in the 4-week period preceding the survey. Most had not searched for over a year.(See table A-I.)

About 1.4 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force inFebruary. These individuals reported that they wanted and were available for work and had looked for ajob sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed. however, because they hadnot actively searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workerswas 371.000 in February. up by 82.000 from a year earlier. Discouraged workers, a subset of the mar-ginally attached, were not currently looking for work specifically because they believed nojobs were avail-able forthem. (See table A-10.)

Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

Nonfarm payroll employment was up by 66,000 in February to 131.3 million, seasonally adjusted.While the over-the-month change was positive for the first time since July 2001, much of the gain wasdue to special circumstances. Unusual seasonal employment patterns in retail trade, favorable weather forconstruction, and a return from temporary plant shutdowns in motor vehicle manufacturing were importantcomponents of the February change. (See table B- )

In the goods-producing sector, manufacturing lost 50,000 jobs in February. compared with averagelosses of about 111,000 in the prior 12 months. Motor vehicle employment rose by 26,000, as most ofthe plants that had been temporarily shut down in January to reduce inventories were operating in February.Large employment declines continued in electrical equipment (-22,000) and industrial machinery (-14,000).Aircraft manufacturing lost 8,000 jobs in February; since September, employment in this industry has fallenby 33,000. Employment in printing and publishing fell by 13,000 in February and has declined by 107,000over the year.

Construction employment increased by 25,000 in February, reflecting unusually warm temperaturesand dry weather across the country. Thejob gains were in heavy construction and, within special trades,concrete work, both of which are particularly sensitive to the weather. Other construction componentsshowed little change.

Mining employment declined by 6,000 in February, with most of the losses in oil and gas extraction(4,000). Since September, oil and gas employment has decreased by 9,000.

Within the service-producing sector, wholesale tradejob losses totaled 15,000 in February, after 2months of smallerdeclines. Employment in the insurance industry continued to fall in February: the industryhas lost 14,000 jobs since September. Employment in finance declined by 11,000 over the month. Withinfinance, security brokerages continued to shed jobs, with losses totaling 45,000 since industry employmentpeaked in March 2001. In contrast, employment continued to increase in mortgage brokerages in February,reflecting low mongage interest rates.

4Retail trade employment rose by 58.000 in February. after seasonal adjustment. This followed a rise of

41,000 in January. Because of light hiring during the holiday season, there were fewer workers to lay off inJanuary and February. resulting in over the -month gains after seasonal adjustment. On net. since July,employment in retail trade is down by 142.000. seasonally adjusted

After substantial job losses in October and November 2001. employment in the services industry rosemodestly for the third consecutive month. I lealth services employment rose by 34.000. with offices andclinics of medical doctors showing a large gain (13,000) Employment in help supply services edged up by14.000 however.employment in this industry is 655.000. or 18.5 percent, below its peak level ofSeptember 2000. Engineenng and management services added 9.000 jobs.

In transportation. job losses in the passenger component of air transportation have slowed in die past2 months. following a decline of

87,000 in the fourth quarter. Trucking employment continued on the

downward trend that began in Apni 2001.

ckly-Hours.(Esablishment Survey Data)

The average workweek for production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls wasunchanged in February at 34 t hours, seasonally adjusted. The manufacturing workweek edged up by0.1 hour to 40.7 hours. Manufacturing overtime was unchanged at 3.9 hours. (See table B-2.)

The index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarmpayrolls increased by 0.1 percent in February to 148.5 (1982=100). seasonally adjusted. The indexhas fallen by 2.4 percent from its recent peak in January 2001 The manufacturing index edged downby0.1 percent to 92.6 in February and has fallen by 9.7 percent since January 2001. (See table B-5.)

Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)

Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on pnvate nonfarm payrolls increasedby 2 cents in February to $14.63. seasonally adjusted. Average weekly earnings rose by 0. 1 percent to$498.88 Over the year, average hourly earnings increased by 3.7 percent and average weekly earningsgrew by 3. percent. (See table B-3.)

The Employment Situation for March 2002 is scheduled to be released on Friday. April 5, at 8:30AM.(EST

26

March 2001 National Benchmarks

In accordance with standard practice, BLS will release nonfarm payroll employment

benchmark revisions with the May data on June 7, 2002. The March 2001 benchmark level

has been Finalized and will result in a downward revision of 123,000 to total nonfarm employ-

ment for the March 2001 reference month, an adjustment of 0.1 percent.

Also concurrent with the release of the March 2001 benchmark revisions on June 7, BLS

will continue the implementation of a new probability-based sample design for the payroll

survey. Estimates for the mining, construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade industries

are currently produced using the new sample and methodology. Estimates for the transpor-

tation and public utilities: retail trade; and finance, insurance, and real estate industries willincorporate the new sample design with the June 7 release. Further information is availableon the Internet (http://www.bis.gov/ces/) or by calling (202) 691-6555.

Explanatory Note

This Pews release presents statistics Pom to major sforceys, tC.urren Poplton Surv' (houiosehold suoy) aid the CunotFmirnyincot S-sco i-ry (estabishmem isurv) The housolodsucvey povides he fformatior on he labor force. eoptomientol. anduaamptoymc -thta parsithc A table omaked HOLSFHOld

DAA It s a sample sroey of aboust 60.000 ouseholds conductedbi tho U S Ccasus Bura for the Buret of Labor Sanstics (RS)

The estaibshmoit surey ptovodes the irformatio- o theompioomert.hours. and eatungsofokttsonnoofarr paYtots that

appears tn ir % ablrs marked ESTABLISHMENT DATA Thisitforemation t cottOctd froo payol records by 1.S in cooption

wiIShaicagencies In;u.e..20tttsaplemeieaouasi 350.000ertablsthrrs employing about 39 million peoplc

for both surys, toh data for a gIven month oroIbo to artclo'-ee6 or pay piod in the houschold suey, the rrferete ,oeek isFretaly tie c -ltr1a: took that contaits the 12th day of tte moth.

inte emlishmienti y tors he referrnO period Is tIhe pay pr=od

irotlidtng tie fa whicr moo or may .. ootoeopond dirctty to hecal-dar wcck.

Coverage, definitions, and differencesbetween saryps

Hosehold sor-ey To sampO is sItected to reflect he ttirecio,:,anno0otnintona populoaon Rarrlonr espotr nssaercorquestors on tor andob rsar scravotirs. ccept-sor. mooasadoott na samopithouschod scloasiid asoemoyod unemrpoyed. tieto1 In the labor force

P'ruotltoooclassitied auiemplooedfifthey dodoany worktt aollas paodemipcedurnie , rfrernce week. wooroed it. ther son busines.protession. on tht o- far.or woked wtthoos pay at leat15 ;

nors obac aoet bactona or-ar gemr npus P op er coesoasorePlopOo 0ec - eroptmly said e from tet tots licase of

Poptosi id ao loed if Ul n p met all ot nt fol-poogcni a Thoey ad o ermployedonig tie frce so

th0 Ceabofo: Ictoole or uo p l oy Ie. ad thenumeruademployd i,,oto d oorptosooot. sqO.otol duriog ItO 4-Ock perot endirrg rot

the re(ecO Pershonr laid oIT from .toba ecigIlor 1-k.lt ooic for ,oo tso leit aobodtpoc.ogeotalt

frtr to t e r... d e,. .. ypopuannra thecf- cm Lt. - of emplo -employen h Tie

o Tostabie data Thriere o orpc huehlisomentiso dtawna ic of it e labo s cOT

Tro riaoi nofr bsi e Uott sh oas toris offices, Ad storelEasl asaFeerl. r Stat . n local lormn enltaits.l Epor on

nonjarr poyeolh ro thc. who ettoed pay for any pat of t.oafereoce pa? pootd inctlong prrs on paid rarve. Persons secountedin eaci job they hold .Hoors ond earnongt dasa are for privatebusiesss and relat only to production tor, n hire goods.

producing sector and nonsopersory worotto In rho servioe-producingsector,

nifferees a emplymet estiates The eumerousconcptussand methodologica! ditreuces betwetn she household andesotabshmenrturveermsultrn imporotantdesticioithetmployenrtesotimaeer ivedoo fredon th tvys Among thescarc:

* ThchouscholdsurvetyoncludesotatultuartaesealfwptOoyalunpaidfarnty-aker.andprwatehocsoholdoretrseongtheopyed

These group. ae eoltuded ftre the talishrort owrecy* The houschold surcy onludes people on cnpaid tea-e among the

employed The establishent survey does not.. Thichouseholdsooy is miod o workersJ6,ea-ofaqcand-olr

The establishment sorcey is net Inited by age* the houshold surve has .o duplcaiono of utdi,,odas, beesar

ind,-tust arenmcredonroc.c en if theybaldmnoraontjob. totx eohbshiment sarvey. emptoytta ourking at more thou one got od

thus apper-og o mtoe that to payrot -Iould or couont separtly forer appearance.

Other dofferences between the to suatyos are decobed irC o.mpaorcg Emoymntoo Estimates from Household a-d Pasyml

Surveys. w rhich may be obtained from BL5 upon request

Seasonal adjustroentOvr the C .ours ofla eart ,he sia of he acsOn s lb orco ant

the 1-es of employment sod unemployeto undergo sharpflucttatons due to soch scasouat cents as thanges in wathe.,eat- ,r eratet produton. harveeto. aloe holiday%, sot dtopeettog ent closing of schoots rho effeto oft sace asool aaartooocan ho -ry large ea, - l flocinatons may accourt for as much sohi percenr of lie moott o-month tiaorgosionornmptootoo

tous isc -sCoro c 'no o, a

tgoas tf o soaooa hi tt otura ar te en eua

bstoatinc for taoos(to motrntcranedtotalowfeo aclaomparb

mare cns sasoal lclopmoe. useh as deeorr i ectly00heAtinity O no-oe Irnoothe000 yattlcipatitt of 00010, into tabor force

I00 pot fo the hocop and estsmn orofyouoth siaoathe

a-el Of ecorom i aciiy hersyn or dotied Hoouer Ohe asetheesfto or sodn maoestime aiht ,ch p aro impyt, y- oo-o heemtpoi c for y hecumen r t yea can u ttroe to sil o yeor atoopandI

05,aoe Insofar, so tee - .1toa adtmeno ct I, 1at coreoty, tirttdattt figoiuro-de a more uoofultl -It d,,mhl so taalyor

chanoges ir estoootto aictlc 0

In hoth the h-oarout A coteoaloloslrnm scrveys., 1010 sesnallyadjucted oeres see todOPOrdesott atdasted lootto too acjaumdsootoc Pot crourv 01tk:oe eaO.r tios soo totoa payroll mploymer,.employmert Ir momt major indostry dicietoc, tota eoplo-os "o

unemployment are computed by aggregating independently adjusted

component scres. For example, total unemployment is derived bysumming the adjusted series for four major age-sex components: this

differs from the unemployment estimate that would be obtained bydirctly adjusting the total or by combining the duration. reasons. or

uno derailed age categories.The numerscal ractors used to make the seanonal adjusments are

recalculared twicn a year. For the houschold survey. the factors errcalculated forthdranuar-Juneperiod andagain fortheJuly-December

praod. For the establishment survey, updated factors for sasonaladjustment are calculated for the May-October period and inteoducedalong ith ne benchmarks. and again for the November-April period.In both surveys. revisions to historical data arr made once a year.

Reliability of the estimatesStatistics based on the household and esablishment survevs are

subject to both samplingand nonaimplingerror. Whenasoampleratherthan tho entire population is surveyed. ther isachance thathe samplcstmates ma) differ from the -or population values they represent.

The eact diffemrce. or sampling error. varics depending on thepamcular rampic scelted. and this variability is measured hy the

standard error of the estimate. Them is about a 90-percent chance. orlevel of confidence. that an estimate based on a sample will differ byno more than 1.6 standard erats frnm the truc" population valuebecause of sampling error. 8L analyses arm generally conducted at

the 90-percent lel of confidemce.For exampile. the confidenceinterval forthe monthly changeintotal

employment from thc household survey isontherderofplusorminus292000. Suppose the estimate of total employment increases by100.000 from one month to the nxt. The 90-percent confidenceinterval on the monthly change would range from -192.000 to 392,000

(100.000 c/- 292.000). These figures do not moan that the sampleresuls are off by these magnitudes, but rather that there is about a 90-percent chance that the true over-the-month change lits within thisinrral Since this range includes values of Ics than am. we couldnot sa with confidence that employment had, in fact. increased, If.however. the repaored employment rise was halfa million, then all ofthe alue within the 90-percent confidence interval would be greaterthan crn In this case. it is likely (at Iast a 90-percent chance) thatan employment rise had, in fact occurred. The 90-percnnt confidence

interval for the monthly change in unemployment is +/. 273,000, and

for the monthly change in the unemployment ate it is +/* .19percentage point

In general. cstimates involving many individuals or establishmaents

have lower standard erors (relave to thie size of the estimate) thanesimates which are based on a small number of observations Theprecision of estimates is also improved when the data are cumulatedover time such as for quarterly and annual averages. The soasonaladjustment process coo also improve the stability of the monthly

estimates.

The household and establishment surveys are also affected bynoneampling error. Nonsarpling errors can occur for many reasoonsincluding the failure to sample a segment of the population, inabilityto obtain information for all respondents in the sample inability orunwillingness of respondents to provide correct information on atimely basis mistakes made by respondents, and errors made in thecollection or processing of rhe dat

For esample. in the establishment survey. estimates for the mostrecent 2 months are based on substantially incompletc retursm for thisreason. these esrmares ore labeled preliminary in the tables. It is onlyafter two successive revisions to a monthly estimate, when nearly

all samp reports have beat received. V the estimate is considered

final

Another major source of nonsampling error in the establishmentsurvey is the inability to capture. on a tioely basis employmentgenerated by new firms. To correct for this stematicunderesrinationof empioymeni growth (and other sources of crror). a process known

as bias adjustment is included in the survey's estimating procedures,whereby a specified number ofjobs is added to the monthly sample-basedchange. Theszeofthmonthly biasedjustmentisbasedinrgely

on past relationships between the sampl-based estimates

of employment and the total counts of employment described below.

The samplk-based estimates from the estublishment survey areadjusted onc a year (on a lagged basis) to universe counts of payrollemploymentobtained fromadministrativerecordsoftheunemploymentinsurance program. The difference between the March sample-based

employment estimates and the March universe counts is known as a

benchmark revision. and serve asa rough proxy for total ureyerror.The new benchmarks also incorporate changes in the clssification ofindustries. Over the put decede. the benchmark revision for totalnonfarm employment has averaged 0.3 percent, ranging from zero to

0.7 percent.

Additional statistics and other informationMom comprehensive statistics ore contained in Employ-mn and

Eorning, published each month by BLS. It is available for $26.00 perissue or 550 00 per year from the U.S. Govenment Printing Office,Washington, DC 20402. All orders must be prepaid by sending acheck or money order payable to the Supeintrendent of Documents, orby charging to Mastercard or Visa.

Employment and Earnings also provides measures ofsampling error for the household survey data published in thisrelase. For unemployment and other labor force categories. these

asureappear int abis I-B through 1-De fits"EsplanatoryNNtaMeasures of the reliability of the data drawn from theestablishment survey and the actual amounts ofrevision due Io bench-mark adjustments ace provided in tables 2-B through 2-H of that

publication.Information in this release will be made availabic to sensory

impaired individuals upon request. Voice phon: 202-691-5200;TDO message referral phone: 1-800-877-8339.

HOUSEHOLD DATA OM DT

TOYAL

A -2.- 21 23I Is a 2t 5IM1# E

3. I M .- _" 3'A 3 I e

entrarer2 anage4 *400 472 435 * 4s P - Pa 7. 00 S0 . P

M~i 16 y- Wa

404 tW 24 100 t9 I 404 40 0

JA-' 20 Year ad oe

TOYFIS

#400*4146 _________ 64 4 962 24 34 4 446 30* 4*

Worr~N Ma 20yas doe

. o 0 i 0.0 a t tot 53 1 44 t . 0 44 J4t-0 2 4 59 425 2 1 IA

w~O ... .. - 443 01 6.0 S 464 m *20 P4 4

17f 40020 st34 44 * 44.4 40.s 462 44 so24

W- x 16 to gd

2.4.840444000.0OW I.-. -' -.- I.. 4044 I24 I.=4 450 440 ,S

- - - 40 4 2 4 s .4 * 20 4 4 44

*0044. 20m Yo a td 0444

I-5 462 AII 454 003 43 1.5415 .w i=4

645250 ~~- .,III - W- -A40 40 P0 .0 240 29 244 04 .

a4 .4 W.44) 4

S 12 8t? 40 02 4. 12 04. 844

41.0*2 - s- .s r samn m sw21 a .a 04tr= 16,113 mra'...ho40. .4mismar 4.0

P.Pop.....pop~~~~~ina,,no'x " 4 64 54 40 5.4 82 42 6.

.13___ Y24 OP 5 4 5 4 02 .4 .I

04004000.2 4*88 *40 00*

- 4436 0024 4004 40.02 4.34 61.0 4100 005'Z'2.0C44045000 .. 45 424 64*0 6140 229 6234 84.2 610* 10

30

HODUSEHOOLD DATA HO0USEOLOD DATA

T~ble A.2. E,071006,ot e WA 016.0400070.100 bYIl-e MR0.0 . BI.801H610303 Ofigh,

180- -g Fee 7.. 8 2, C 35. 1

53814210= .. - - 117-8 111.B62 IS,"2 110131 118. 1AS.10 S1.4. 172.-1 -An417148301.1. 02 B0. V. 64 072 W02 670 66. 8VA

2,1003 .......... ~ I 13=0 1070 1030 137 1 87 2.5 112,tNB -A1.30 12Eo~loll..0,0ZI184l0 - -- 4 11 61 23 84 6. 10 6. 6.7

l.4n~or5z3 SS 17 4__ 36 Si 1 .1 SD 61 4. .

6.0.020 V-03 w08

1400

3oa - ____ ..... ~.. 76,7 7.3 -0 7150 Se0 709 76. SIM 6.12110010 SIX... . .. 6.7 57.W04 97.17 10546 1281 1203 61.0 &7.4 13=

120.10311. - _____ 2.310 3.-0 1.316 m.0 2.676 2.80 2.23 2. 2.061

3S6801 SIB S.03188.71301104

W -31 1300 y-1 .. d . .. - 5.1 131 5.3 411 077 1.1 00 080 1.8

21637l80.803381100 ... 4.17 Al. M1 83 6.7 4e71 m7. 67 N57

00.110131S's Se. I. MA10 20 1.0 .0 2 .10 2527S .3 22113

.. . ... .......... .... .... .........4 4S 113 4.1 32 S1 42

0044683003 1610 1978818,C.o .0 0 . .. . .- 612 .. 1 6.3 ...... .......... ..... = 670 65

P -1144=.... S.. . 11.71 M.1 12.3 131 61 1112 Il0

0,120780 - -- --- SJ....... 5.110 -10 1 6.1.4 S.1 11"0 1763 SAN1 6=.73y10.71

411 .0 ........ .1 ........ 42 4S, .6. 3634S 33 3.

t30413 ..... ... l 05 86 70 3 0 1 0 1141.- --- ------ :.,.I3 I116 :44 11 13 . 17 0 2 0

.. ............... -............. . ... AA2 7G. 173 12.1 13 7 0.5057- - 8 141 12A 86 111 I'A 13 2 131. 22n

BLACK20181000000110330M . - .. 4412 370 25813, 7.411 200 2.11 7.1 25.180.. mm I 763CoO 04101 .. .. ... 16.111 1,..3 6.617 11661 000 I. 60' 10S8- 1S.7B9 IV-12

.. 008 ....... ........ -:: .180 14.10 1410 IS-44 1.4 S6.0 1 5.1.6 1. IS.14

5300. ... . . . . ........ 1 1.8 WA1 1000 1.34 ms1 1612 1

C,3. 1300 lo. - - . 217 710 1.-1 10 102- .8 1.-3 1.616710.1 .lm ......... ... .. .... Be. 7.7 7.3 7 . IS 76 .9 1 9A2 I

22501 - ... .701 6.776 1.00 7.041 671- 0.73 I.0I 724 51.-

. . .. .00131 ........ - ........ . 1 .0 07 -1 82. 8.1 .1 65J 8.

.ol . ..... - . . 0.- ------- I.00 B,44 6409.1 840 0.0 6

W -,oobo 21 Y - ald- . 0I 64 64 663 80 64 654 62 210l4048 -.-- 7.50 723 .88A.80l.71 1,,10 8.. 7.0 1.4

11l. 1. 2 . ..... ..... .......... ... Se. 17 146 10 646 a.36

14111103l3CA. . 1.3 7 54 011 84 874 8.4 8.

Cl2l 03 Y - 0 6 64 375 002 08w0 1 4fl7

2 00l0000~N MI V.. 373 014 0V01-8 1 111 0 1

27401.m Ne - 4$0= 60 1 18 880

6407 Ste. M - .. 32 03 4. 3121 012 31.8 .0 00.1 80012111 .... ~ .......... 40 212 .05 3z, N9 00. A0 258

HOUSMOL DATA

Tab* A77 073400 m.77 4..77 3707070024707747272447747 n42.8774401 * '-00474.

HO34EH= DATA

HrPM ORCN

5SA 15il S 603 tSw

1161 14" 14 .6@ 4 . 4 I-.- 1.@ 1

E0*40r'*o 5et.3.7M06 27.o047 04

70. 40 74 5 V 1S 1a tle t F

s4e 7as4 76 40 74t 747 74 754 7S

men

rA4I a t4

IM 2 2IM, 3to s

450 452 4 4 40 4

.- 1.7oo2 47M.7M7'Am

M2 MA2cone a0.gr0...

247 03 2 447 27 27047 = 2

HOU2SEHOLD0 DATAHOUSEHOLD DATA

Tabl A.. Selecte arr0ployrnerst4h4dicaors

84 .48302408 .8888 2443

cmA00gokyEJS

73 40 F4 74 4 *44 0.M n4* I.

340* ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 M.2-4 00 4* 26 24 96 2

OCCUPATIO

*24**40*44*4 84424 2602* . - - 41.43 *364 4*26 8*78 4304 *270 43 41.1451541 24

CLASS OF WORKER8

C---

..... .07 ...... ............ ..... *433 *V4 474 * 7 474 * fl *4. X ,24 *I2

ll. M- 022 M0 748 8An 067 How 7'An',

..........44*4 ..... . .... .*4 84 40 44 00 34 8* .4

.....80 4 . ...... ..... ** * 6 60 111 33 In v

PERSON4S 27 WORK PART 7*48

P,*0*0403**4* .. 9 . - 434 47 4.*. 417, 4W 42 1473 433*434*0*4 *424244*2248 *2W 074 268 2338 24 Z. 2.2 228 8.1

94240*47*347478*44.04I( I.- I3 0 4 2 4 .- * * *74144 3*20**,444 . 000 *848 * 47 8*4 *44 *.C 7*-4 *7.111 *26

,OUSEMOLD DATA

Tbe A.S. Seo e a s

unrnovThesosCHARACFFFiSTtC

OCCUPAT10 &

fl,*a .4 a a asan,a t.

communer -4*e -amases oe

HOUSDIOLO DATA

oemenT-7 Ts

- - - Sfl . 11CC .,1.lfliab. F OCW - -Saamaa - in.inrw as - ct.,. a.. - a~aaa ~css c.o.ass.c.ss ~

T- A4, D-t ft

NUMBER OF UNFPLOYEO

PrsmE asrnUrN

PE'C - M

Not -asaona.ly alsaed

TaoTa

ssotlly adIus-e

Ta Oct

Ul 2 M5 314 31.16 5, 5 110I IT

Ao

HOUSEHOLD DATAHOUSEHOLD DATA

T A-7. R- - 3 3

Not seasonagy adjusted Seasontlyadusted

NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED

Newoats ---- 86363033 -- 3. 876 4204 8387 6647 4 403 95 479 . as

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION

- 199 18 172 59 186 144 134 4 3

Newereares~~41 -4- 1 7 4 s s

UNEMPLOYED AS A PERCENT OF THECIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

emeauroersaewrcorrlea7 nemora ue 23 3as3 3OS 3 85 343029 32 8at 3.o

15 7 3 321 15, 10

TM~~~ AARn M e o

Nott sesnal adjuste Sesnal adjustedI

Ul~ m 5 us da11 19 20 10 14 IS 7 to 1

U2ma26 8. o 35 (o 30 32 32 (1 30

4,6 3 1., 42 4 S 58 55

F d-6 9w$9 73 71 ( A. (. v (0 0 0 0

04 T,1 886 86 833 630 886 8'I

6.338la 870 28 f 8.3 8.8 825 .33 23

343.3988... ......... ~. . - 57 47. 1., 41) 488 83 6 6 ) 9

35

HOUSEHtOLD DATA ,HOUSEHOLD DATA

Tabis A I Uneplye prsn ty se ndao saon00124E240L0~k-b. 003BrS.44o0

--. PY~dP.-U . 4Y 1r-'

's- F -a- 253234340012 1S32i 1.,S~rri 113

002032 43 On00044200

2C SW3 '4 38 02 1

4is 24 - 2 24 26 e5 to it .s i Z s It...s4I S .3 -i- -sr is- i., ts3isir.4? 443 487 451 4s li4 175 185 tD 45s

23424~4..- --------- C 134 i * S 3 3 4

25r44443244'*~~~~ ...3 .2.....3 4 4 5 44 4

24eat43.4 32S 7445 4ts 32. 342 is s IS R.05l.n044 -. r1 473 ii 24 14 i5 0 35 38

22SItd4.1441.30444143238 42 5S 59 58 Ss 5s46m,..4nt fll4

3 '434 10C 123 130 128 123 124

555ie 44 .si 60 4 50 172 In ii7 is3 tea

as2ir~4 .a we23 i io 33 0 00 14

TabsA~4. . 2 Pu83inSMtreaus Zim adia I. ii 5

2 5324r5i5 45TotaIl Manair Wome4n 0

23.4.0~ - 14 24 23? 3 42 33 4 55 e 42 4 50i544 30 .338 2322 3 434005 Si 4

S NOT*038 N32T434LA 4Oir FO42GE

iros0 2733 i5 5864 S1 Si $4 5 7 5 SS

36

ESTA09446414 DATA £90AEU9411004 DATA

Tabl. 1-I. Eo'8499 nodn peVIVYVIOS byonsl

02sassonAVY 4000909 Sooso'a1 40161

'41160 Fen, Den. Jan F Feln Oc, NonI Den 3J- Fob

260, 009 2002P 2002P 2001 201 20101 2001 2D020 2602P

otl.131,102 132.143 I22 129.M3 132.95 131.782 131.427 13t 321 131.195 131261

To11401 IOnA 110 756 100,239 190426 111.315 110.764 1,0.421 110.260 10I.102 110,1711

Go oo 000141 . ... 29.02' 23,379 23.740 23.672 0.622 21.746 20,977 24.043 24,276 2432

134101 . 92 963 940 54699 90 967 964 902 90

44110119301 326 209 304 30 39 3U 33 31 31C"t1 1 2v973 0219 BlA 009D 75 61 01 02 02 01

IN aw ;AS 01,-1 3032 9972 333 327.8 320 340 339 336 027 M3

- f011132t1,1t eoconllot 1es 90N9 I'104 1035 103 86 1 13 113 110112 111

C01100601 . , -. . .. . 6.33 6.73M 6.396 6,330 0.880 6,85 6Z091 6.6 6707 6.612

Ge00at~~N '941009401 . I40 1. 2 1.4790 1 .4702 1 M5 I 1.960 1.56 1.59 1Sw 1.940

9o464t61409 -I, ......... 4.1188 4,2944 4.073.2 4.0942 4.399M 43909 4340 4.347 439= 4,3M2

14010061005 103 1,43 16709 10.102 71739 710 17:03 169 617

P -99~l961 2242 11.42 11200 1229 2.323 1326 51.00 140 1139 1.299

001410 000 . ..... . 10.06 10.180 10.02 9.997 .10.1167 10 302 10,240 10.158 10,0&1 1002

Po,9no~el . 7.382 6.761 66301 6.630 7.415 6,M7 6,809 6740 6W67 6.650

111040ond0046 .. 7024 7709 26573 79095 799 709 790 W0 781 704F-lo Ilt ..0.... . 940 ...... 4 405 4%,1 4004 94W 6 499 405 400 962

91002.. g..s xw010 962. .... 9 9948 9396 9363 970 906 902 59 594 990

P1011419Irta ,VVIV01ss 901I7 6199 0020 6009 67 63 610 613 001 90

It0 111 S9b0lS01800.l 2162 201.1 1906 105 7 vI I I I (I) 1)

,F- - -I p- .......... 1 . . 14 1.4335 1.146 6,1 1.114 1.4 ,1435 129 1 1.4

a9040401080491111 . .o 2.109 1W59 1.101.00 105 1.9s3 1.917 1.m9 ;1.70 6

12-1ool0 40"041" 19 0709 334 33D00 337.2 370 902 339 39 327 326

8009010040"W9e""""' O4099000 1,7290 1.4a) 4 1.011. 1.44408 1 In 72 1.529 1,499 1 ,474 .1400 1,437

0011100011001000004004010 7101 9900 974 160 711 01 91 90 572 16

011n0409oo9rnI . I701 2 1.7003 1.6069 16706 W.0 1714 1.7W0 1.66 I=60 1675

-Soo10149410T1

a. I 9637 9396 87706 9004 967 003 902 001 87 964

04104I4900 1-1-, -- 403 4 453.7 4400 43108 6 6 496 493 440 43

V -1111l1 49I0. 41060 V. 009M9 0377 63M 621 MI 671 19 04 039 03M 3100141016144w4111 300 2767 373,9 3792 39 W61 376 374 374 376

- W1014t 9005 7,137 6.003 6.021 61100 7,195 0,962 6.919 6.082 6.076 6,092

P - -M ............- . 4.860 49057 4.613 6 95 4.9013 4,17N 4, 699 4.1 46559 4,6W

1e40013140o64 , 1.693 1.679.7 1,6.8 I=696 1.616 1.680 1.691 1.62 1 SW01.

T00nlnt2 .- 323 342 340 336 31 33 33 32 33 33

Tzeoj D")Ve" ....0 ... ..... 4)007 4432 4M69 4392 496 494 44 442 440 39

U2419.1. p139 , 01 626:3 6036 630.7 946 620 623 624 624 62

P101101940091..4........... 159246 4.4S90 1.031 1 1.419.3 139 1.409 I.9 1444 I.3 I.4M

COI~eI- aIS a94 840 pInoonss ....... 1.037.4 1.0200 1.0151 1,0165 1.039 1,007 1,020 1.001 1.014 1.010940t-ll 'I,1 ..... l ........... 103.9 1290 12M9 1022. 127 128 1 27 123 In 127

0i,e10 Vd1 4 Pis116 p(500 A10100 0774 0037 0173 914D 979 99 027 926 919 919

Les-16M1*a-1046 ... ..... ... 974 Sll0 97.6 0769 64 61 90 96 99 90

9o01091W091 ..., ... ....... 106000 107.768 109.469 106.167 10,06 107.034G 106.80 106.1418 1015.017 107.014

0-,400001400 490164 u961109 ,tI .....-- 7,09 6,973 6,0W 6.8l31 723 7.016 6.93 6919 6007 6.101

T1490114004,96 .44 4.32 4,W .0 42 444 437 4,376 4-W6

09044494000101 ............0 2277 2262 203.1 M22 031 MS9 034 227 226 M2

1004(04I. 0649005619641404 4966 "19 O'4.06 0003 .4 476 480 10 '406 '489

T--"04014061s9 . .8399 8,349 1.70 1.785.2 1,870 1,632 1,30 12 An2 1024

01 i vI.0004 ...........4...04:1 1097 J17 19241 .194 200 2W 2Ws 206 203 206

0141100009 .-4..1......... 12964 12357 177.4 1,133 1,316 Ie 16 11 1. 189 1.187 1.102

PVI40.08 _400604412 ga (39 142 1368 136 14 I14 1 14 14 14

0149010400180964 seice 4744 4341 42631 430.7 476 492 41 4 431 43

Cooloo01000190410440 2 62n 2,59 2.515 2.510 2=93 2.944 2.930 2.92U 2.521 2,.917

C010111113600 . 1,4201,0401,641 600 1.69 ,64 1640 1683 1.673 10

994110VtA5Do ...... 719 1 6002 0.7 .0 6.71 69011 6.3 6,93 610

0nn106o4 . , 40 ,6 ,07 04051 4,190 1 4 4.6 4= 4.7 4,067

90-Ai201 g ,.......o......... ... 2.024 2,001 2.62 2.821 20136 2.097 2.151 2.09 2.097 2.6852

See l0o0,'es . -00410

37

OsAL mAT. ESTALMatE DATA

T.- 61 Zpl n ry -1

Fo. Dec j., Fe Feb OtNlDela e

=t at v 200 Mt, t Mi

ne . 240 nom a 22 7 " an I 32 214 2 2

Bus 69r. matena9 ana0n6 as 917k98 99 90 07 02 0 E00796097 107

6 2. 209 3.050 276 9 2922 290 2I 7 27l 2.7 2 7 2 7

r -. 3 9 24029 24 2410 M 2,W Z722 242 2.410 20 23Foce'ssors 3.513 2 3.58 9100 9 709 7761 3 5" 3 52 3 539 3 7 57 3 50

2.33 2.49 27 s 2 23 2,Q 279 277 240 272 243Neown ecar er 23198 26730 2348 230 2242 2433 24 2 2395 2148

E am .,1M9 1 1. 6u 1175 a r i in 19 in 250 4 3128 33114 3141 3115 35 42 3 37 30 2 315 31424m.4824537e 77 739870567757 7057I 729 723 7792 79 7.27

'Mnance6 377 3775 37M 3785 3742 3744 3172 37r, 3710 1.t7477947449077989859 ta5 797 7028E 757 2973463 t627367

am 7903 377 378 377 374 374 372 3742 3 36

2,01477669 277 2.4407 2,W33 2=e6 2025 2047 2040 2043 20. 2.64Sco.eto c7aw r 74347428 735 75 78 72 752 744 29 728

2 2 2 2 7 259 2 2 2

S 3 37 40 3 4 326 333 42 3S

9 02 943 739 739 7 777 7 93 79 3747 75M

44l9479066745047 37798 74 2580 2565 25 250 325 293 25 2879 206

230 253 23 2343 2257 2.3 2456 2052 2352 234405 car7e4 .9 6 1 5 769 469 752 7ss '57 6594 755 66

3752 7900 3752 3589 7 75 75 75 7S2 75

'1510 1 3M 1129 11651 U t; 8 27 0"

Governme 7437 447 4 347 4 69 77'57 501 02 771 721

Feaeral-9 4652400 74 4 93 429 .26404265 42805700e57 2408 47302

m. "as2 9..M 1 . "79 a 7 7 72 76 97 07 9 46 8? , 3'E '-p 992 2 94 24 3 70 7 95 996 992 49t 0797'7407 S.0 755 3257 3060 34658 737 7370 7792 3232 323 3=FL 376 2 8 74 6 2.787 3.49 30 14 294 26 ' 2

00709740447570054044790 271W67 27674: 274873 271687 28 2207 2789 278 298 277

0767 Wpoi40999757 72864 72969 72967 73756 & 7297 7298 !,306 1,3U 7 737074409w777 '750 M,7~ M00 759 04 75 375 .2 346 359 359 362

'964 7776 577 9762 76I 5 42 594 588 58 5%3

sean5" emh 702755 79 79 70572 0. 06W03 7045"704'37, 76";0794674~779000775 953220402043 104 79879 2=20 2907 20=

M0748'3W04347 76 T54 7342 4639 7 79Z 7I3- 763 70w 74 W 79a7407 496 471672 478632 477123 4.4 4730n 6 47447878047

w444 947777 N94 43 77 650 6583 a 945 605 607 659 667 662.9' 0 707.0 7.0315 7424 70257 1 7 020 703 703 703 7MIWt 1030 7 037

6E-74r'7 299.3 258571 23724195 2 479 21 2438 26.. " 24527 2430.W1004 372 377749 37420 37235 2997 3IM 37;00 370032 37 .12'

M7307475 0 752 "77 70?2 7676 734 757 750 757 75S 7536.49076MaQ4 62.2 8S3 No~ w34 69 03 85 7 6

'a,0 105 77 010 '0 170 112 770 I7 'o 0 7M9t2,74477747 287 24993 24644 24820 2487 2500 3,505 279WS 270 270

E7074.cr'774n- 9..9709 3 5M57 5737 5 35744 3W45 3384 3 5M 343 3547 3 43 3.05267~4.744a040907.sa344 a8 7746 708 70036 1:074 CA,6006 I79. m74 77444444774-7.10979 1.1on 774' 203 7.7204 ' in2 5 n 77,; 74 27 7725 73 '.30

506 SO5 49 400 V7 7 77 77 ) M'

7.4.44 2W5 29 2 m8 2757 297 285 1 2 94 287 .,5 2508@ 2.60

507 4772 5422 04 5639 4425 474167640292853

2.7W540787777 275 27894 Z.753 2 74385 7 2 8 260 286 27 267

I MI597 757 79e". 79t49 80M08 7476 767 783 764 7647 78035.6b76'47757 065 57776 5,40 517623 S.761 5w4 5803 5676 58 5847l

__ - 7e-

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA

T 0-. vm kl p Nor season wl adish< Sesoar adsta

418025 Fet D-o Fn F. 08 c 64 00 4M92 202 200 00 2002 200 2MCI 2001 20020 2002P

Totalpnv.ate 340 344 336 339 343 340 341 341 34 1 341

Goodspbodung 398 404 39 399 403 400 400 401 404 404

M ... 427 43 423 430 432 431 432 433 430 436

Concinn 376 393 386 385 387 37 392 388 39 8 396

Manufactunng 405 413 44 43 409 4 403 406 46 470042 4 . 38 41 37 37 39 38 37 30 39 39

04 800. ... .....4.8 416 408 407 411 407 404 40. 49 4100 s 38 42 37 3 3 39 37 36 38 39 39

LurreaxMos 392 407 398 395 402 406 405 408 403 404Furr..eandxtues . 384 398 398 396 391 303 384 308 400 404Stone.cay.anMgtasprou.cs . 416 435 432 431 428 439 438 435 443 445

P02 - - .... l.h.n.s432 44 4 433 432 432 432 426 438 432 434Blast unces40 an. a seproduct 44 0 438 432 431 444 4 0 433 43 431 43 5

F0 1. -Iup .. 84s 424 4 411 413 417 410 47 412 412 416ndustn4al macanery and equnent 42 41 40 4 40 3 410 404 399 402 402 400

Electroncarwatnerelectrcalequernent 400 402 386 387 403 390 30 393 306 389Transportatnequrnent . 415 427 424 422 40 413 413 42.7 428 425

U a Am . ................ 416 440 437 436 420 419 422 430 445 439InstrarnentsWandrelated.uc 425 41 2 40 5 405 42 1 407 40 3 40 5 404 402

Ma m -. aa-rg 379 321 371 377 W 2 37.5 37.1 377 37.5 300

Norldurai.egoods 401 406 399 398 404 402 400 402 401 4010-ertarrer0ur 30 42 38 39 40 41 39 40 40 40

Food-nd i0e rout 40 3 415 407 .. 48 42 400 40 410 40.6T 387 413 402 403 398 402 398 406 46 415

Texh rml pDuct 39 405 39,7 40 4 40 4 39.7 395 40 0 39.7 40.9A M.A.284 377 378 34 372 376 W9 39 374 W.8 371

Pa08848 .. s ... 423 423 414 410 41.7 415 413 425 412 414p253829".28L60 302 33 374 374 384 300 378 378 v76 376

Chemicalaaeoducts 42.3 42.4 41.9 41.6 42.3 423 422 41.0 420 42 7Petrateurn and alproducts 43A 415 414 401 (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2)

Ru.be and misc plasicsproducts 408 420 408 40 9 409 405 407 41 2 408 41.1L A and r products .......... 36, 37.5 372 376 364 360 366 37.4 37.6 30.0

Serv-prac.0 ...g . 32.6 330 322 3Z5 328 326 326 327 326 327

Trnsportanand"pubh.ul.l..i 302 383 374 375 385 378 378 380 378 37.7

Wr8alesale .ae.378 386 37.9 301 31 32 302 3 3 302 84

0etalwad. 284 292 280 205 289 287 288 2B9 288 290

F3naera6nnral e 300 3867 35,9 383 363 360 362 361 302 3X3

54............ 2.6 329 322 24 327 325 326 327 325 325

2 0ata 2elate to production6 markers in nurg 8.nd rnanufaluring. pa004

... as aa.a ft . 5.44 -~ 60 8244 600'40 4= 4858.42481184.8. 8D

39

ESTACttMarUL DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA

T4 0.3 A-V -h 8 .y .- P Iff- .4

447erage 42o my ear- s Average -enly ears,

feaprat4$41.58S46 S1463 51468 51488 34844 558327 549325 549765

50a444 a,36*49 44 44% 58 461 4463 44497 497t48 49629 a389

Goods6ooducang3 -1562 4G26 4647 4G4G 42468 65G5C 64548 64478

shrug 476 441793417934 tr7s 75'95 77637 75044 76753

4846 .866 t644 47 0 2 74491 7433 7 1

141 1518 1516 4575 517- 62683 61248 61053

15 SO 0 6 3 l3W 9-8 91 ?o S

L 5448683.. 298 124 423 4226 4435 586 4824 4842Fre en.8$484es, 4203 4257 428 1257 45 5012 5848 487.77

G, my1 'SI 4 1s 5 152 810 07 61W slm@

4"44'64. 6S ,.5iM 4725 175 7162 7684 74 3 74930Me14 1 m ,4 145 " so' 61 .0%2 5Sl

4574 463 1633 4S 6 49 674.48 602 7S 6E664c.t4o .n8or ee ctr 4.a equ !4416 1498 t90 14593 5640 602 20 37344 579 24

t I 499 493 19 775 2 68 7 2 M93 6A7

sranensannestoposucts 14200 4t4 13t8 13 9090 62477 65979 *735m

'I 9 i2' 42.2 25 4 49 41 1 4 2 4 037

E- - - -9441397 443 I44 44 2 589 578 IS7369 9 775M265 4346434443 549 46 2

T .72449 2m8 29 4.3 3346 9493 m o 7.7 054t21527 45 46 178 4S67 4675 48247 43

8644844e2er..445 93 M 967 9 7 ' 8 359 7 M 9 3558 63828

P4844984431184 474877444709884 o 44.87 4983 8MM8Pe4 42 44 4157 5377 5527 528 5W9 49 4 4 885a 468 77874 79742 5419 798M

PT 4 M 224 2498 222 2213 9574" 9121 7 97 84 4

R m 1 13 1 30IJ 131 "q IU I % &

Le4 42 8 ID3 40W 108 139 34 5 75 582 38

A-.44844f 403 46S 4SIT 4093 6 376 35 3827. 98769

4r$40 43 448 t44 I427 478 47. n 4 5 M

4a9i 05 465 442 4 4442 634 48668 16 7782 65221

M2 456 4647 4607 46,4 2645 62416 9'S 614S.-- o S3 9 41 1025 to. 22 "1 . Sto WS .1A5 I

1e n ea tate 562 1649 1 84 4623 6734 5444 52626 5s

Se4.Is 144 5 05 oo52047. 43643 4353 4m24

l' .8r-ra S- e1 2

ESTABUSHMENT DATA ESTABUSHMENT DATA

Taltaa A- hoawly647.04g on*W a pm 141, w5116l41 n W8,008r- on w*8 onpn1 m-am ", byma- ;= o*

Feb Oct No8t 0ec Jan Feb 4109

2 20 2001Feb 2002

ToaC. doll Sars 1447 S1454 51545 S1461 $1463 01

Goods pro4 .. 1574 16 05 161 1620 1623 16 25 1u 1752 l773 1785 1783 1774 177. 0

C_185 18 184 1857 1855 1854 1Mlarbaarg 1463 1407 150$ 150$ 1512 1517 3

Excua n0em4

1304 1431 1438 1441 1443 1440 2

Servic ..oe n .9 1362 1401 1407 14 12 1414 1416 ITrspor-tatio and-obICIties 1684 1709 1723 1723 173 1753 5

Wha.aeae 1560 15.9 1591 105 16 05 163 5841a4tr4. 906 991 96 999 1000 1001 1

F-r. -91348 4 1514 .. 1555 1605 16 07 16 14 1616 18 16 0

Sevie.. 1454 1481 1487 1293 1 4 9147 2

I Se100tn1ois 1.tab 2 Janue ar2002, "aarnonthavadablr T C rn-l W I mla W1 Jba Wa06 10 .. by 814 114D b 0 1 ov e h s are pmai

.0114 0a1 .- 44 888142 a 480 . *4 Nt& am -m.0168er Dt he been rev c Mated NA n . oavas8= s 106 041e en84 a c 20 01 pm a.

41

ESTAft-MN -AA ESTARumuET -A

l esse ov e Susne -a m o

T wn1.7 6 IWS 4-34 -u I 1s5 % 17 t..S atr 18 1.83 14s5

IN7 97) imS 1022 635 10 7 33615 ! Iol07 I

T. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ s I. ... s sw -80 ..800 ...430 .1 s0s8080 l00 0u008 floa o'0.b

513 1960 04289 6 IS0 3 53 o5354 1o 1 3 2 ) 7

n I c * t o D c S M

866200210 28O 8' 982 913 2o23 @9 934 933 92l 978

8)IM 060 000 02 1880 979 860 9) 33 003twed8a9wes)pro 2 3) 3 2348 2295 1241310 296 '1351'356 1338 2300

rI'.127 123 128 22S 17 31 995 2)83 1)96 1222g 27S- Iym " I as 000 1033 I S 862 1272 1970 1160 194 135 1 1anaymeasterstnes 878 16 755 752 020 298 13665 0 250 10800328800&885028MlS6 620 68 966 670 632 86s 83 569 570

21cad200 pro2 16: 2 11a : 23S8 1070 190 1097 107 1081 2072 1to2Is6 86 MS 89 03 5 5) 64 633 w2

1 7 810 89 8I0 e88 879 85 3' 827 88.71120 1 6 8 W2 IMas 5 135 109 2048 1053 1m 0 1G 65"Il 23) I3 14 2'l0 I'll I"9 2378 13s' 13 10

nnmsnsetsoe c 7I8 728 03 700 757 780 70 7o. 200 683935 W3 6 Go PS 8f8 883 89 w86 8

02286~~ 930 9"0 880 878 88 68 89g 853 852 7oFoo ano susrecoroac.0 1106 t113 t22s 18 1838 1253 1285 136 ti3 134

788000038009433SI 3) S 9074348878173 863 488 093T.sseenproa 600 19 $97 603 691 628 614 6t2 599 620

P8a8a " M, 90 89 00 39 MS 82 959 M3 13SPr l 1 1125 .1 2 S 90 2.6 ''0I W 09 I G 10

Cl'~r086oMO8 863 008 008 080 868 862 830 388 00P00f280608, 74 702 878 8 7007887217 788 808 868

6o8w~'~ob00bo8&8 313 9M 11 2321286 236 2328 329 23t0 20Le a 286 207 203 288 297 248 287 287 288 243

Seweepro2ucan3 *653112011611 1640 2689 262 1671 2619 2ees 18

TAnn0orsatenmandsc atae 2377 1323 1313 1318 .803 303 1333 353 1340 1383

Wh7lesate 21e 128a2 31 2 '27 4' 2.7'314 289 2. 1 9 9 26 2400

'6dw 1 4 ;G 1 960 1636 168 t9 283 2835 1833 - 6

oram3 a to8 t1S 13 1375 2 8618 t8283282 1376 25 289

34034 298 2'24 884 8878 2228 2222 2222 2226 2208 2089

60 Q12 r. 7 I7 2016 2 * 427-826

ESTABUS8MENT DATA

Tab. 4 Duusmi onin a emplyen1 emn.neasonA.ya ut*e

(pera)

Tn. 9 . I Feb I M. I Ap. IMa A-e Af I A. I Se On I N. 0-

t P". plla . a 9.ff..n..

0- 1 lm Wi

1998

001032001

200D.

1999

20002001 .... .........2002 .. ........

1998

1998

20002001

2002..

0-12

i83e

1@

20002001

199.

1989

2000

20012002

19881989

2008

20012002

1991992000

2001 .

O0e 12 Vnn .:sa

19 .......8 ..

19 ... ....2000 ::- .........

2001 ........

Maradacing payrols.W136 mousines

ESTA38JSHUgET DATA

Ba 9aW n seasuragy a4e dat or 1. 3-. an 6nonth spr NOTE Fiue ae o p c r0es ann employmedand unadysted daa orSe 12-monih span Data are crnered win inraag lsae a(0.R1 hemuns we unchanged rrloprrers

0. 90.1T .1 so 99er08na.0. 91qul ana etee augin9W

CA~

I-.

ft

I I

I

I I

I I