hpai: market impacts dr. tom elam ([email protected]) farmecon llc may 6, 2015
TRANSCRIPT
Species Birds Lost Flocks AffectedTurkeys 5,280,200 99 Commercial 5,280,200 99 Chickens 20,322,340 20 Backyard 40 1 Commercial 20,322,300 19 Pheasant 5,830 1 Backyard 5,830 1 Mixed poultry 72,803 12 Commercial 71,500 1 Backyard 1,303 11 Grand Totals 25,681,173 132 Commercial 25,674,000 119 Backyard 7,173 13
Reported HPAI Bird LossesAs of 5-5-15
Feed loss assumptions:
Turkeys loss is all potentialfeed consumption for averageweight birds.
Layer loss is 6 months of totalflock feed consumption.
Species Feed Use LossTurkeys 165,606 Layers 345,480 Total 511,086
Source U.S. Feed UseFeed Grains 138,000,000 Soymeal 27,450,000 DDG 27,555,747 Total 193,005,747 % Total Lost 0.26%
Feed Use Losses, Metric Tons
Major Ingredient Feed Use, Metric Tons
Species Loss, MillionsTurkeys, Lbs. 158.4 Market Eggs, Million Doz 242.2
Species % Loss% Total Meat Lost 0.17%% Market Eggs Lost 2.88%
Meat and Egg Production Loss
2015 Production Loss as % Total Production
Turkey outbreak shows little sign of abating
Conclusions Now the largest poultry flu outbreak in U.S. history, and getting worse
Significant financial impact for affected turkey and layer flock growers/owners
HPAI losses to date represent tiny percent of U.S. feed use
Even if the losses double or triple, still no significant feed market effect
Export losses will help reduce production impacts on overall turkey and egg prices
Unless broiler flocks get involved, only downside price pressure for chicken
Dark meat turkey and chicken parts prices remain depressed
Potential positive for whole bird turkeys and breast meat
Significant impact on egg and egg products supply◦ 4-6% loss for period while large Iowa flocks out of production◦ Will take up to 6 months or more to get back to full production – limited pullet supply◦ Table eggs likely to be diverted to breaking
HPAI Flock Infection and Poultry Export Restriction Resources
Flocks affected (updated about 3-6pm EDT weekdays): http://www.aphis.usda.gov/wps/portal/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/sa_animal_disease_information/sa_avian_health/ct_avian_influenza_disease/!ut/p/a1/lZHLcoJAEEW_xUWW1IzDewm-QCUmGoOwodoBZKpgoGC0Sr8--EjKLCRmdt1979Tt0yhEGxRyOLAdCFZyyM91qEXThUP6NibuZGWOsPv6OfaMuS4vHKUVBK1gMLEcRZ9jjBWDYHdoO0Pd9DB2tef8-MGz8F9-H4UopFxUIkMBVBlrIlpykXAR5WxbQ318wQ1E5b6O0pLum0sFnBWQR1kCucjuOzFrEmiSiPG0rIsLhOv4wID_6Km4NVpZvk_4Cb6N5zAVZTEKtsRMsUYSSTb6ICl0K0uggioRNU7jmFJdlvVr-F_7TUZ2u994_qbPpgTP1Jugi-9F0AEwaAnrDxGaClr9M_X0iZuS2ht4u_ZbEJl0pok2nZSv4zvKaNNB2bdR-O4vVc1CVbFeF4asLZ3TR1r4w6PV630Bp5beKA!!/?1dmy&urile=wcm%3apath%3a%2Faphis_content_library%2Fsa_our_focus%2Fsa_animal_health%2Fsa_animal_disease_information%2Fsa_avian_health%2Fsa_detections_by_states%2Fct_ai_pacific_flyway
Export restrictions by country of destination:
http://www.fsis.usda.gov/wps/portal/fsis/topics/international-affairs/exporting-products/export-library-requirements-by-country