How universities and R&E networks can play leadership role in reducing

CO2 emissions

Bill St. Arnaud

CANARIE Inc – www.canarie.ca

Bill.st.arnaud@canarie.ca

Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author

The Climate Change Imperative

> One of , if not, the greatest threat to our future society and economy is global warming.

> 15-30% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 will be needed to keep the temperature increase under 2 °C, and a deeper reduction by 60-80% may be needed by 2050.*

> Past IPCC assessments have underestimated the pace of change> Latest data indicates we are at the high end of projections

> It will be necessary to go beyond incremental improvements in energy efficiency, current life-styles and business practices. Significantly more drastic measures will need to be undertaken

*International Panel on Climate Change

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Source: IPCC WG1 SPM, 2007 http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf Chris Hope - Cambridge

Climate Forecasts

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Possible climate “911” event

> Must Watch: National Science Advisor John Holdren on Global Climate Disruption

– http://greenmonk.net/john-holdren-on-global-climatic-disruption/

> Stephen Chu – new head of DoE – “Wake up America!!”– http://climateprogress.org/2009/02/04/chu-were-looking-at-a-scenario-where-theres-no-more-agriculture-in-cal

ifornia-part-2/

> USGS Abrupt Climate Change report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating.

– http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-4/final-report/default.htm– http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/24/what-are-the-near-term-climate-pearl-harbors/

> What would your organization do, if governments ordered drastic reduction in CO2 from coal plants and transportation?

– How will this impact your data center plans & Internet?

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j

j

26 tons/person

1 ton/person

2008 2050

?j

2100

2 tons/person

Source: Stern 2008

Our Challenge

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ICT and Cyber-infrastructure and CO2 emissions*

> It is estimated that the ICT industry alone produces CO2 emissions that is equivalent to the carbon output of the entire aviation industry.

> ICT emissions growth fastest of any sector in society, doubling about every 4 years

> One small computer server generates as much carbon dioxide as a SUV with a fuel efficiency of 15 miles per gallon

> Typical university produces 200,000 – 500,000 metric tons CO2 per year of which 100,000 – 300,000 tons is from Cyber-infrastructure and ICT

> Back of envelope estimates suggests Higher Ed in US produce 5-10% of all emissions

*An Inefficient Tuth: http://www.globalactionplan.org.uk/event_detail.aspx?eid=2696e0e0-28fe-4121-bd36-3670c02eda49

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Carbon Footprint by state

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Energy consumption versus GHG emissions

> Number one problem facing the planet is climate change– Lots of confusion between Green IT, energy consumption, energy

efficiency, Clean ICT, sustainable IT, Corporate social responsibility

> Turning off the lights or computers may not be the answer– Also misleads people into thinking problem is easy to solve– CERN super-collider may produce less GHG than a single router in USA

> Our focus should be on how ICT can reduce GHG emissions– NOT energy consumption or energy efficiency– NOT Clean ICT such as computer waste etc– NOT sustainable IT– NOT Corporate Social Responsibility

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ENERGY MANAGEMENT 1965 - 2008

Projected GHGs are based on Planned Growth in Ten Year Capital Plan

Source: SFU Facilities Services

University GHG emissions

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SFU

TASC2 Research Building

CI major cause of GHG emissions

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ICT and Cyber-Infrastructrue is critical to reducing CO2

> Direct emissions of Internet and ICT are important at 2-3% of world emissions but, in order of impact, the most significant contribution we can make is through leveraged, or indirect, emissions reductions.

> According to SMART 2020 these represent as much as a 15% reduction opportunity in global emissions.

> (And SMART 2020 is one of the most conservative reports on the topic. Others identify even higher potential for savings).

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ICT’s Enabling Effect is Significant

> Can deliver carbon emission reductions five times size of sector’s own footprint by 2020– 7.8 Giga-tons carbon

dioxide equivalent – Greater than US or China’s

current annual emissions

> Key sectors include Transportation, Buildings, Industrial Processes, and Power

> No other sector can achieve this enabler effect !!

Source: SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age, 2008

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But first we must clean up our own act

> ICT is 2-3% of GHG emissions mostly through consumption of electricity produced by coal powered generating stations

> ICT energy consumption is expected to double over the next 4 to 6 years

> Even greater ICT deployment will be needed for GHG abatement in other sectors such as smart buildings etc

> ICT represent 9.4% of total US electricity consumption, and 5.3% of global electricity consumption

– http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724

> Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity

– http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf

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The Falsehood of Energy Efficiency

> Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased energy efficiency of equipment and processes

> But growth in ICT deployment of equipment and services is outstripping any gains made in efficiency

– Which is likely to accelerate as ICT is used to support abatement in other fields such as smart homes, smart buildings, smart grids etc

> Also greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption by reducing overall cost service and therefore stimulates demand

– Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox aka rebound effect)– In last Energy crisis in 1973 Congress passed first energy efficiency laws

(CAFÉ) which mandate minimum mileage for cars, home insulation and appliances

– Net effect was to reduce cost of driving car, heating or cooling home, and electricity required for appliances

– Consumer response was to drive further, buy bigger homes and appliances

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Zero Carbon strategy essential

> Zero carbon strategy using renewable energy critically important if governments mandate carbon neutrality, or if there is a climate catastrophe

> With a zero carbon strategy growth in demand for ICT services will not effect GHG emissions– Anything times zero is always zero

> Wind and solar power are most likely candidates because of opportunity cost/benefit analysis especially time to deploy– Nuclear has high opportunity cost because of time to deploy– http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/14/stanford-study-part-1-wind-solar-b

aseload-easily-beat-nuclear-and-they-all-best-clean-coal/

> But renewable energy sites are usually located far from cities and electrical distribution systems are not designed to carry load– http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/12/pdf/renewable_transm

ission.pdf

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> Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses

–Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically

> ICT facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES–-Cooling also a major problem in cities

> But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to electrical grid.

– Can be easily reached by an optical network– Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power– Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site

> ICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites– Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe

“Zero Carbon” ICT

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Many examples

Hydro-electric powered data centers

Data IslandiaDigital Data Archive

ASIO solar powered data centers

Wind powered data centers

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Significant Economic opportunities

> Many of these techniques and practices will also lead to exciting new business opportunities.

> Universities that will be the first to deploy ICT strategies to mitigate global warming will be the new economic and research powerhouses

> New revenue opportunities and business models for network operators and application providers

> Significant revenue opportunities for universities and regional networks in carbon offsets

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Do your carbon inventory NOW!!

> You can not earn credits until you do an inventory and calculate baseline emissions

– www.ghginstitute.org provides eTraining

> Next year carbon cap price will be $100 per ton in Europe

> At European cap price the cost of GHG emission could be as much $10 - $50 million per year for university in the next decade

– A lot depends on details of Obama’s cap and trade

> Conversely university could earn $10 - $50 million per year if a university is zero carbon

– No revenue potential if university is carbon neutral

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American College & UniversityPresident’s Climate Commitment

“Signatories agree to…

Create institutional structures

Select & implement tangible actions to reduce greenhouse gases

Complete a comprehensive greenhouse gas inventory

Develop a climate-neutral action plan

Make information publicly available”

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Funding to universities linked to CO2 reduction

> UK government is planning to link the funding available to universities and colleges with their performance in reducing carbon emissions.

> In his annual grant letter to the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE), Universities secretary Denham asked the Council to set out a strategy for curbing emissions by 80 per cent by 2050.

> He added that while the higher education sector had originally been asked to deliver a strategy to cut emissions by 60 per cent by 2050 and 26 per cent by 2020, the 60 per cent target had now been raised to 80 per cent in line with the government’s wider climate change bill.

>  http://www.carbonoffsetsdaily.com/global/government-funding-to-reward-greenest-universities-3996.htm

>  

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Public Sector to be carbon neutral by 2010 in BC

> British Columbia was first government to introduce carbon tax in Western Hemisphere

> Provincial Government in province of British Columbia has mandated all public sector institutions to be carbon neutral by 2010– Other provinces exploring to implement the same policy– New Zealand has also made the same requirements

> Many universities and businesses are adopting voluntary carbon neutrality objectives

– Dell, Cisco, Google etc

> This will have big impact on university research and optical networks

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The GreenLight Project

> Understanding carbon footprint of cyber-infrastructure very difficult– Energy consumption depend on traffic load, software architecture

etc

> UCSD now deploying first component of green cyber-infrastructure to consolidate virtualized computer clusters and servers in energy-efficient mobile facilities.

> Calorimeter in the middle of the cyber-infrastructure and network

> http://nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward.do?AwardNumber=0821155

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Green IT MoU

> Initial Signatories: UCSD, UBC, PROMPT

> To share best practices in reducing GHG emissions and baseline emission data for cyber-infrastructure and networks as per ISO 14064,

> To explore carbon reduction strategies by new network and distributed computing architectures such as PROMPT G-NGI, OptiPuter and CineGrid.

 > To work with R&E network to explore relocation of resources to renewable energy sites,

virtualization, etc.>  > To explore the potential for a “virtual” carbon trading systems

> To explore the creation of a multi-sector pilot of a generalized ICT carbon trading system including stakeholders from government, industry, and universities.

> To collaborate with each other and with government agencies and departments and other organizations

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CANARIE Green-IT Pilot

> $3m - $4m allocation for Green cyber-infrastructure-IT pilot testbed

> Two objectives:– Technical viability and usability for relocating computers to zero

carbon data centers and follow the sun/follow the wind grid– Business case viability of offering carbon offsets (and or equivalent in

services) to IT departments and university researchers who reduce their carbon footprint by relocating computers and instrumentation to zero carbon data centers

> International partnership with possible zero carbon nodes using virtual router/computers in Spain, Ireland, California, Australia, British Columbia, Ottawa, Quebec and Nova Scotia

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But renewable power is not reliable

> How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy source is unreliable?– Ebbing wind or setting sun

> Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks

> Need new network architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data sets around the world to sites that have available power– Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures to quickly

move jobs and data sets from site to site

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PROMPT – Next Generation Internet to Reduce Global Warming

Research on router, optical, W/W-less and distributed computing architectures, applications, grids, clouds, Web services, virtualization, dematerialization, remote instrumentation and sensors, etc.

Share infrastructure & maximize lower cost power by “following wind & sun” networks.

Sources: GENI and Inocybe27

Policy approaches to reducing CO2

> Carbon taxes– Politically difficult to sell

> Cap and trade– Useful for big emitters like power companies– Addresses only supply side of CO2

> Carbon offsets– Immature market with no standards– But addresses demand side of CO2 by businesses and consumers

> Carbon Neutrality imposed by law– Growing in popularity especially as protests over gas tax escalates

> But there may be an additional approach….

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Carbon Rewards rather carbon taxes

> Although carbon taxes are revenue neutral, they payee rarely sees any direct benefit– No incentive other than higher cost to reduce footprint

> Rather than penalize consumers and businesses for carbon emissions, can we reward them for reducing their carbon emissions?

> Carbon rewards can be “virtual” products delivered over broadband networks such movies, books, education, health services etc

> Carbon reward can also be free ICT services (with low carbon footprint) such as Internet, cellphone, fiber to the home, etc

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Other sectors (40%) (e.g. manufacturing, coal mining, export transport)

Emissions under direct consumer control (35%)

Consumer influenced sectors (25%)(e.g. retail, food and drink, wholesale, agriculture, public sector)

Heati

ng

Private cars

ElectricityOther transport

Consumers control or influence 60 per cent of emissions

http://www.cbi.org.uk/pdf/climatereport2007full.pdf

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Carbon rewards rather than carbon taxes- gCommerce

> Providing free download music, video, and electronic books in exchange for carbon fees on parking, transportation etc

> Free distant learning courses rather than telecommuting

> Free advanced tele-presence systems in exchange for carbon fees assessed on business travel

> Free mobile cell phone using femto cell and Wifi on public transportation

> ICT and Internet is in the best position to dominate new world of ‘gCommerce”

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Free Wifi on Buses

> There’s a school bus service called The Green Bus in Birmingham, UK which operates double-decker, low-carbon emissions buses that carry over 1400 kids to school every day (saving over 2000 car journeys).

> In addition to encouraging kids to play peer-to-peer games, the access points allow the bus company to monitor where the buses are in the city in real time. Parents as well as staff can follow the progress of any bus via Google maps.

>  There’s an initiative in rural Arkansas for Wi-Fi on school buses.

>  

> http://www.muniwireless.com/2009/01/14/school-kids-enjoy-wi-fi-on-green-bus/

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Carbon Reward Strategy for last mile infrastructure

> Provide free high speed Internet and fiber to the home with resale of electrical and gas power (ESCOs)

– http://www.newamerica.net/files/HomesWithTails_wu_slater.pdf

> Customer pays a premium on their gas and electric bill

> Customers encouraged to save money through reduced energy consumption and reduced carbon output

> Customer NOT penalized if they reduce energy consumption– May end up paying substantially less then they do now for gas + electricity +

broadband + telephone + cable

> Network operator gets guaranteed revenue based on energy consumption rather than fickle triple play

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Conclusion

> Cyber-infrastructure is part of the problem – but its also part of the solution– Advanced optical research networks are essential for Green IT

> Start planning for the ultimate disaster of significant energy cutbacks

> Three step strategy to use ICT and cyber-infrastructure to reduce GHG emissions:

1. Clean up our own act first – zero carbon Internet and cyber-infrastructure

2. Use ICT for abatement in other areas:– Smart buildings, smart grid etc

3. Use ICT as a reward mechanism to promote reduction of GHG emissions– gCommerce

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Train your IT staff in offsets

> Not for profit eLearning institute> The institute offers rigorous online training and workshops on

GHG accounting, auditing and management. > Most participants are from IT industry> Absolutely essential if you want to sell carbon offsets> http://www.ghginstitute.org/

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Thank you

> More information> http://green-broadband.blogspot.com> http://free-fiber-to-the-home.blogspot.com/

>

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