How to win Elections A Psychological Approach

Thank you for coming to todays event, if youre tweeting about us please use #BUFoL16 @BUFestivalsFree Wi-Fi is available via The Cloud across the campusHead to Starbucks in the atrium for refreshments and light bites

In the event of a fire please exit the building via the nearest exit and meet at the muster point in Carpark BToilets are located on the ground floor to the left of Costa CoffeePlease note there is no smoking on campus within 5 metres of any of our buildings. We thank you for your co-operation in this matter

Photographs are being taken at all Festival of Learning events that may be used for marketing purposes. If you dont want to be included just let one of our volunteers knowChildren are more than welcome on campus but please stay with any children under 18 at all times

At the end of todays event please complete our evaluation postcards and return these to a Festival post box! Were really keen to hear your feedback to help us continue improving the Festival of Learning for future years

How to win Elections A Psychological ApproachDr Darren G. LillekerAssociate Professor: Political CommunicationFaculty of Media and Communication

Citizens as Chuggers

The Evidence

High participation is the preserve of the engaged minority

Hot and cold cognition

THE BRAIN IS ALWAYS WORKING, BUT USUALLY JUST PROCESSING SUBCONSCIOUSLYWE ONLY SEE NEURONS FIRE WHEN THE BRAIN IS ACTIVELY PROCESSINGACTIVE PROCESSING REQUIRES EFFORT AND ENERGY

To save energy we chug

The schema and the subconscious

The schema and the subconscious

Schema = Mental Filing

STUFF WE AGREE WITH

STUFF WERE UNDECIDED ON

STUFF WE DISAGREE WITHHumans like consistency, so tend to ignore communication that challenges their pre-existing attitudes and beliefs.

Schema and attitudesThe amount of information, and its consistency are the foundation of attitudes If we agree/like all items in our schema relating to X we like X (an vice versa)Depending on volume and consistency our attitudes range from strong to weakAttitudes help automatic decision-making

IndecisionWe have insufficient consistent informationWe have to make a decisionThe decision is importantWe feel likely personal impactA message has personal resonanceA message counters what we know, but cannot be ignored

THIS OCCURS WHEN

DissonanceDiscomfort from holding two contrasting viewsDo we ignore one piece of information?Do we try to reduce the importance of one view?Do we find more information?Do we withdraw completely?

Does negativity workNEGATIVE STIMULIAFFECTIVE APPRAISALLEARN MOREUNDERSTAND DEBATESDELIBERATERELY ON TRUSTED SOURCESCONFIRM BIASAFFIRMATIONANXIETYAVERSION

OverviewHumans seek easy solutions to problems, heavily relying on automacySchema items aid us make semi-automatic decisionsNew information is compared to existing schemaIf we dont know we start to weigh optionsInformation seeking/accidental exposure can lead to dissonance

UK2015The Conservatives won a majority of seats by:Carefully targeted messages (geo-targeting)They owned a Long-term Economic PlanMiliband was seen as potentially weak

UK2015SchemaConservatives strong on economy; Labour not to be trustedMilibands serious image problemsSimple reinforcement strategy focusing on one positive and one negative message (Repeat-Remind)Squeezed Liberal Democrat voters using a fear campaign (dissonance)

EU Referendum 2016SchemaLong-term antipathy to the idea of the EUMakes negative messages about the EU easier to believe

Why Stronger In failed Elite driven, fear-orientedContrasted with a public antipathy for elitesContrasted in a belief in Great Britain The positive message did not come throughLibDem, Greens mostly marginalised Half-hearted campaigning did not resonate in Labour heartlands

Simplicity & Consistency

Why simplicity may have won it

Affect Stronger INProject Fear predominatedElites were unlovedAntipathy overwhelmed positive messages LeaveMocked elite as Project FearReinforced simple negative positionsOffered a positive future

Out may have been easier

LessonsMessages need to reinforce existing schemaKeep it simpleOffer some hopeSimple choices are easiest

Questions & Comments Welcomedlilleker@bournemouth.ac.uk