how to use modelling for asset management · how to use modelling for asset management application...

HOW TO USE MODELLING FOR ASSET MANAGEMENT

Application for commuter linesApplication for commuter lines

Paris, 04 October 2013

Dr.-Ing. Marc ANTONIInfrastructure Direction – Technical Innovation Dept.F-IRSE, M-VDEI, M-AFFI

SNCF - INFRASTRUCTURE | ASSET MANAGEMENT & MAINTENANCE ENGINEERING

Chapter 1 – Why does Asset management need Modelisation?

Chapter 2 – Modelisation for Infrastructure management after conceptionengineering


Chapter 3 – Modelisation for Infrastructure management before conceptionengineering

Chapter 4 – Conclusions & perspectives

SNCF1111111 - INFRASTRUCTURE | ASSET MANAGEMENT & MAINTENANCE ENGINEERING

� In the field of railways infrastructures, AM tends to preserve and enhance the railway network in order to make the best out of it:

� public policies underpin this scheme: which strategy for the network?

� the time target is necessarily middle, long or even very long-term as long as the sustainability of the network - or a part of it – remains secured.

1 - Why does Asset management need Modelisation?

long as the sustainability of the network - or a part of it – remains secured.

� Asset Management consists of driving the implementation of the network strategy under financial constraints, while minimizing the life cycle cost.

� Modelling the impacts of the network strategy, on short and long scale, is a key point of the Asset management policy

Principles

Network strategy ProductionAsset

management

Defining the network strategy :

Transforming the network strategy into:

� Maintenance policy :Modelling the impacts of the

Planning the ressources :

� Network capacity and slots adjustments


Future, performances, availability, reliability, failure duration…Network topology...

Modelling the impacts of the maintenance need �� Good balance between maintenance and renewal

�Renewal programme

�Maintenance programme :. per route. per line. per sub-network

�Analyzing the evolution of the behaviour of the assets and their components

Under constraints :. limited financial capacities. limited network capacity

adjustments� Industrial and human resources

Realizing maintenance and works operations

Updating the knowledge of :. the assets. the description of the components . their behaviour

5

Definition of the expected high level outputs of the network

Route strategy: technical and economic performances per route :

capacity, traffic density, budget

Asset component Operational component

Assets strategy :-definition of the maintenance optimization

parameters (choice between maintenance

and renewals)

-technical choices on components

-definition of the inspections frequencies

Operational strategy :

Operations and control of the network

Network access optimization for

Trains Operators

Asset Management

processA

sset

Man

agem

ent s

cope

> Y-5 / Y-2According to nature and impact of policies


Route Asset Plans-Definition of route performance

-Definition of the number of maintenance

and renewal operations and their costs

-Planning of renewal operations, important

maintenance and enhancement works

Route Operational Plans :Taking into account Train Operators

needs (number of slots, trains

frequency) & maintenance

possessions needs

Route Delivery Plans :- optimization of operations organization

(Maintenance and Renewals)

- confirmation of work conditions

(possessions, budget, assessed detailed

projects)

Timetable and Access

PlanningManagement of the impact of the

required possessions with the slots

demand,

Timetable construction

Execution of work : Realization of operations :

Planning execution, supply chain,

realization of works, tests, acceptance of

the works, placing into service

Network and Traffic

Management Operation(real time)

Ass

et M

anag

emen

t sco

pe

Y-10 / Y-2

Y-3 / Y-2to Y/ M-6

Y to D day

�Obtain reliable deterioration models and survival models for allinfrastructure components

�Formalise the survival model for unreplaced components by fixing the failure rate λ(t) in coherence with several covariates influencing the

� What need Asset Management Modeling in practice?


failure rate λ(t) in coherence with several covariates influencing the life span of the components

�Formalise the existing economic link between maintenance costs and the volume of infrastructure renewal and capacity

�Reduce costs by optimisation of the maintenance/renewal ratio, which is a major issue for infrastructure asset managers.


� The maintenance costs of the infrastructure are function of various parameters � Impact estimated by modelling � Several parameters have a strong impact on the costs


� LCC

Rather YES

Rather NoSNCF - INFRASTRUCTURE | ASSET MANAGEMENT & MAINTENANCE ENGINEERING

Four steps :

3 – Tools for LCC calculation at the national or route levels, including environmental effects, track possession and unavailability costs…

2 - Modelisation for Infrastructure Management afterconception engineering

2 – Tools for the estimation of maintenance needs of the track (with different renewal strategies)

1 – Work of the deterioration and failure laws of each the track components

0 – Data base describing the population, the traceability of the maintenance operations, the traffic…


Step 0 : Identification of the homogeneous track segments (RER Line)

• Identification of the several covariates influencing the life span of the components:



components:� traffic, rolling stock, environment, � topology, passed maintenance policy…

• Identification of the several covariates influencing the life span of the components:� traffic, rolling stock,

Step 0 : Identification of the homogeneous track segments (RER Line)


� traffic, rolling stock, environment, � topology, passed maintenance policy…


Maintenance, Condition of use… Data bases Patrimonial Data bases

Step 1 : Data bases for estimation of the Lifespan of the components



of use… Data bases Patrimonial Data bases

Common Data base

Configuration choice

Treatments / estimation of the parameters…

Results

• Failure laws of rails / slabtrack :� the parameters of these laws are sensitive to rail hardness, to track

Step 1 : Lifespan of the component rail (RER Line)


hardness, to track topology (curves…), track type (with or without ballast) and aggressiveness of the rolling stock…


MT

• Failure laws of rails / ballasted track :� the parameters of these laws are sensitive to rail

Step 1 : Lifespan of the component rail (RER Line)


sensitive to rail hardness, to track topology (curves…), track type (with or without ballast) and aggressiveness of the rolling stock…


MT

• Failure laws of aluminothermy welding :� the parameters of these laws are

Step 1 : Lifespan of the component welding (RER Line)


these laws are sensitive to track topology (curves…), track type (with or without ballast) and the condition of welding…

MT


CONTRIBUTION DMR-ER-IT/IMV et IGEV

Périmètres Voies RER E et Localisation des gares

500 1611 2723 3715 4708 5708 6708 7708 8708 9708 10708 11458 12208 13208 14208 15208 16208 17208 18208 19208 20208 21208 22208 23208 24208 25208 26208 27208 28208 29083 29958 31058 32158 33158 34158 35158 36158 37158 38158 39158 40158 41158 42158 43158 44158 45158 46158 47158 48158 49158 50158 51158 52158 53158 54158 55158 56158

979000 979000 1379 1379 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 991300 991300 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

Tronçon tunnelTronçon tunnelTronçon tunnelTronçon tunnelGdE - Noisy le secGdE - Noisy le secGdE - Noisy le secGdE - Noisy le secGdE - Noisy le secGdE - Noisy le secGdE - Noisy le secGdE - Noisy le secBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche Chelles-GournayBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche TournanBranche Tournan

PKD

Lignes

Défauts récurrents de géométrie (taux observé par année / VI et VR de type Gauche et Niv., exprimé par m de voie)

2012 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 1E-03 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 1E-03 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 2E-03 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 1E-03 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 1E-03 0E+00 0E+00

5,0E-04 -- 2011 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 3E-03 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 1E-03 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 2E-03 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 1E-03 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 1E-03 0E+00 0E+00

1,0E-03 - 2010 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 3E-03 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 5E-04 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 3E-03 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 1E-03 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 1E-03 0E+00 0E+00

2,0E-03 + 2009 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 3E-03 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00

3,0E-03 ++ 2008 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 1E-03 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00

2007 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00 0E+00

Analyse du REX - Voie 2 - Ligne RER E

Haussmann -

MagentaMagenta - Noisy le sec Noisy le sec - Chelles-Gournay

Noisy le sec -

Nogent-le-PerreuxNogent-le-Perreux - Tournan

1000 V2B41000 V2BIS

1000 V2 1000 V21000 V2BIS

979000 V2

1000 V2EO1000 V2B4

70000 V270000 V2B1

991300 V2GC2000 V2

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979000 1379 1000 70000 991300 1000 2000


Step 1 : Lifespan of the different components (RER Line)km

NL d'état en % de longueur de voie - moyenne par campagne de mesure

2012 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 50% 27% 50% 41% 25% 12% 0% 0% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 28% 0% 0% 64% 0% 80% 40% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 50% 0% 0% 0%

2011 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 35% 50% 29% 43% 14% 4% 15% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 19% 19% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 46% 78% 92% 92% 0% 100% 9% 0% 0% 0% 91% 83% 0% 0% 0% 80% 0% 0% 0%

2010 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 50% 19% 29% 20% 0% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 36% 36% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 56% 100% 88% 75% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 0% 0%

5,0% -- 2009 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% 50% 33% 28% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 39% 22% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 60% 30% 0% 0% 67% 100% 33% 17% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 67% 0% 0% 0%

20,0% - 2008 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 0% 0% 13% 25% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 60% 60% 0% 0% 33% 100% 75% 0% 0% 67% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

40,0% + 2007 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 0% 0% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

117,6% ++ 2006 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 10% 0% 0% 38% 0% 0% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 0% 0% 0% 50% 0% 67% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

2005 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 0% 0% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 0% 0% 25% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

2004 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 33% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%

2003 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%

2002 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%

2001 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 0% 0% 0% 100% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

2000 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

NL moyen annuel (base kilométrique)

2012 0,00 0,70 0,00 0,00 0,62 0,75 0,80 0,85 0,78 0,69 0,55 0,00 1,63 2,02 1,62 1,77 1,75 1,36 1,07 1,05 1,03 1,04 0,87 0,88 1,15 0,86 0,99 1,07 1,10 1,00 0,00 0,00 0,98 0,97 0,99 0,89 0,59 0,69 1,99 1,31 1,53 1,41 1,06 1,89 0,96 1,05 0,80 1,22 1,51 1,62 0,38 0,27 0,31 1,44 1,22 1,26 0,94

2011 0,00 0,70 0,00 0,00 0,75 0,78 0,82 0,91 0,84 0,86 0,85 0,00 1,76 2,23 1,46 1,61 1,72 1,36 1,28 1,10 0,90 0,82 0,75 0,77 0,98 1,19 1,17 1,24 1,26 1,05 0,00 0,00 0,65 0,58 0,76 0,74 0,52 0,60 1,31 1,47 1,60 1,60 1,10 1,75 1,34 1,07 1,26 1,17 1,60 1,46 0,47 0,33 0,47 1,46 1,22 1,10 0,90

2010 0,00 0,67 0,00 0,00 0,44 0,61 0,77 0,91 0,83 0,90 0,87 0,00 1,74 1,96 1,29 1,56 1,60 1,33 1,25 1,11 0,82 0,84 0,73 0,78 1,07 1,02 1,15 1,32 1,35 1,02 0,00 0,00 0,54 0,48 0,73 0,71 0,50 0,56 1,46 1,54 1,64 1,49 0,97 1,62 1,32 1,04 1,17 1,11 1,78 1,62 0,35 0,26 0,35 1,42 1,15 1,19 0,83

1,00 -- 2009 0,00 0,65 0,00 0,00 0,61 0,73 0,89 0,90 0,81 0,84 0,74 0,00 1,66 1,99 1,27 1,34 1,55 1,19 1,13 1,14 0,68 0,86 0,74 0,97 1,02 0,96 1,29 1,44 1,33 0,95 0,00 0,00 0,68 0,85 1,22 1,16 0,69 0,81 1,68 1,65 1,31 1,19 1,11 1,56 1,27 1,05 1,26 1,13 1,63 1,57 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,47 1,23 0,97 0,78

1,40 - 2008 0,37 0,61 0,00 0,00 0,57 0,60 0,74 0,87 0,81 0,78 0,68 0,00 1,42 1,69 1,12 1,25 1,61 1,32 1,16 1,06 0,75 1,01 0,76 0,79 0,96 0,87 1,16 1,28 1,29 0,96 0,00 0,00 0,57 0,69 0,98 1,02 0,49 0,55 0,76 1,51 1,47 1,23 0,97 1,44 1,21 1,01 1,13 1,17 1,57 1,53 0,56 0,55 0,71 1,34 1,08 0,95 0,74

1,80 + 2007 0,00 0,55 0,73 0,00 0,53 0,60 0,68 0,64 0,54 0,53 0,61 0,98 1,34 1,44 1,28 1,10 1,48 1,15 1,17 0,66 0,52 0,49 0,67 0,45 0,80 0,47 0,65 0,71 0,76 0,86 0,00 0,00 1,30 1,28 1,49 1,54 0,41 0,42 0,00 1,37 1,51 1,07 0,94 1,59 1,13 0,94 1,05 1,15 1,56 1,45 0,35 0,26 0,37 1,33 1,19 0,70 0,69

2,55 ++ 2006 0,00 0,60 0,71 0,00 0,93 1,06 1,23 1,15 1,02 1,05 1,15 0,00 1,58 1,66 1,13 1,19 1,42 0,00 1,24 0,86 0,62 0,00 1,37 1,04 0,93 0,60 0,76 0,84 0,89 0,84 0,00 0,00 1,33 1,32 0,97 0,89 0,72 0,63 1,05 1,16 1,46 0,95 0,99 1,75 1,06 0,91 1,01 1,13 1,50 1,43 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,28 1,34 1,12 0,70

2005 0,34 0,57 0,69 0,00 0,86 0,78 0,86 0,87 0,80 0,87 0,65 0,00 1,85 1,83 0,95 1,17 1,25 0,00 0,95 0,56 0,67 1,15 1,16 0,50 0,95 1,29 0,54 0,65 0,71 0,84 0,00 0,00 0,63 0,65 0,55 0,74 0,58 0,52 1,05 1,21 1,21 1,29 0,84 1,67 1,14 0,82 1,07 1,11 1,52 1,47 0,56 0,45 0,81 1,32 1,13 1,01 0,66

2004 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,40 0,51 0,55 0,54 0,52 0,56 0,57 0,00 1,80 1,49 1,23 1,13 1,14 0,00 1,00 0,84 0,71 0,89 1,18 1,00 1,17 1,11 0,90 0,80 0,85 0,91 0,00 0,00 0,70 0,83 0,61 0,89 0,73 0,67 0,00 1,21 1,19 1,09 0,95 1,48 1,07 0,77 0,99 1,10 1,50 1,43 0,26 0,22 0,40 1,52 0,90 0,88 0,61

2003 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,67 0,67 0,71 0,68 0,62 0,66 0,70 0,00 1,76 1,62 1,26 0,98 1,21 0,00 0,99 0,81 0,71 0,96 1,23 1,08 1,03 1,42 0,99 0,94 1,01 0,86 0,00 0,00 1,07 1,20 1,34 1,21 1,04 0,97 0,00 1,44 1,25 0,93 1,10 1,37 1,19 0,86 1,00 1,06 1,41 1,39 0,31 0,27 0,45 1,48 0,96 0,81 0,57

2002 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,53 0,54 0,60 0,60 0,51 0,55 0,61 0,00 1,69 1,91 1,31 1,00 1,12 0,00 1,35 1,03 0,70 1,03 1,20 1,05 1,01 1,68 1,08 1,11 1,16 0,90 0,00 0,00 1,21 1,18 1,60 1,92 0,42 0,82 0,00 0,00 1,27 0,74 0,83 1,32 1,10 0,78 0,96 1,06 1,36 1,37 0,53 0,39 0,00 1,48 1,06 0,80 0,54

2001 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,67 0,73 0,83 0,71 0,48 0,49 0,56 0,00 1,76 1,71 1,11 0,93 1,30 0,00 1,16 0,83 0,63 0,86 1,03 0,95 0,91 1,15 0,82 0,74 0,81 0,90 0,00 0,00 0,96 1,19 1,32 0,90 0,35 0,00 0,00 1,99 1,43 1,05 0,86 1,32 1,03 0,76 0,91 1,01 1,36 1,27 0,37 0,28 0,40 1,30 0,93 0,66 0,49

2000 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,66 0,71 0,78 0,74 0,60 0,66 0,79 0,00 0,00 1,51 0,89 0,98 1,14 0,00 1,12 0,81 0,61 0,72 0,93 0,66 0,80 1,01 0,70 0,67 0,72 0,79 0,00 0,00 0,84 1,22 1,15 1,28 0,93 1,35 1,81 0,00 1,25 1,22 1,00 1,27 1,04 0,80 0,84 0,95 1,18 1,16 0,36 0,25 0,37 1,14 0,98 1,21 1,02

REX Bourrage - % longueur annuelle de voie bourrée (intégrant les longueurs de RL)

Cumulé à fin 2012 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1,4 2,3 1,7 1,3 0,8 2,1 2,0 1,7 2,5 2,4 2,3 2,4 2,1 1,3 1,9 0,6 0,1 0,5 0,1 0,3 0,0 0,2 1,3 1,7 0,7 0,1 1,7 1,6 2,1 0,4 1,7 2,0 1,6 0,6 1,3 1,6 3,9 4,9 5,3 2,4 1,8 0,3 2,5 0,4 1,0 0,9 0,7 0,3 1,4 0,6 0,7 1,7 0,2

0,5 -- 2012 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,7 0,0 0,4 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,4 0,9 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,7 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,3 0,2 0,0

1 - 2011 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,0 0,8 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,6 0,8 0,0 0,0 0,3 1,6 0,0 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,6 0,6 0,3 0,7 0,1 0,9 0,1 1,0 0,0 0,8 0,5 0,6 0,2 1,0 0,3 0,3 0,4 0,0

2 + 2010 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,6 0,4 0,8 0,3 0,8 0,1 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,4 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,1 0,9 1,0 0,3 0,5 0,1 0,0 0,2 0,7 1,0 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

3,22 ++ 2009 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,6 1,5 1,9 1,9 1,1 1,1 0,3 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,5 0,5 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,3 0,5 0,4 0,0 0,7 0,6 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,0

2008 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,4 0,5 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,0 0,3 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1,0 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,8 1,0 0,2 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

0,1 -- 2007 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,5 0,3 0,5 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1,4 0,0 0,5 0,0 0,1 0,5 1,1 0,1 0,0 0,3 0,5 0,0 0,5 0,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

0,3 - 2006 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,5 0,3 0,4 0,4 0,0 0,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,1 0,5 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,3 0,0 0,4 0,0 1,0 0,6 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,3 0,1 0,0 1,0 0,2

0,5 + 2005 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,4 0,6 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,3 0,4 0,4 0,2 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,5 0,0 0,0 0,4 0,0 0,3 0,7 0,3 0,0 0,6 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

1,2 ++ 2004 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

2003 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

2002 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

2001 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,8 1,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

2000 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

years

−×+×××= 128,0)Im( 5

N

bakN δ

Annual longitudinal

levelling /homogeneous

track segment

Annual maintenance

intensity /homogeneous

track segment

Tools for estimation of track maintenance needs (EB M) :

Principe / ballasted track:

1 – Cyclical or programmed operations:Fixed charges determined by the standards for track surveillance, programmed maintenance, structure…

Step 2 : Estimation of maintenance needs (RER lines)


programmed maintenance, structure…

2 – Preventive conditioned maintenance: �Levelling maintenance charges: Interventions conditioned by the information coming from track surveillance. Probabilistic estimation of the intervention needs for a specific route, for a UIC group of routes…�Asset replacement charges: Interventions conditioned by asset defect detection… Probabilistic estimation of the failure laws of each asset



• Estimation of the cost of each maintenance operation in regard of the traffic, the track possession conditions…



x 1x 1,6

possession conditions…• The costs of track

maintenance operation are higher for mass transit line that for conventional lines! � parameters cconst,cremplt

420 €

440 €

Mill

ions


• Estimation of the number of failures requiring a maintenance estimation

• Valuation of the associated costs:


300 €

320 €

340 €

360 €

380 €

400 €

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Entr. Ss Renouv

Scénario de base

Variante 1 (+50%2-4)

Variante 2 (+50%5-6)

Variante 3 (+100%5-6)

Variante 4 (base prolongé)

Entr. Renouv à date (<1000km/an)


associated costs:

∑ ∑ +=Length Component

repltconst agehNccC )(..

Step 3 : LCC calculation (RER lines) � Theory renewal planning

Tools for estimation of life cycle cost :

� Definition of theoretical optimal the components lifespan, for each configuration and for all type of track

� Calculation for each line of the theoretical renewal planning


� Calculation for each line of the theoretical renewal planning

� Adaptation of these planning in regard of the local maintenance units, the track possession conditions, the traffic evolution, the criticity of the line…




Chapter 3 – Modelisation for Infrastructure management beforeconception engineering



Maintenance Engineering

Design for maintenance & calculation of the LCC based

on modeling & RAMS calculation

Step -1 : Make the right design choice in regard of the traffic (RER Line)

3 - Modelisation for Infrastructure Management beforeconception engineering

System Engineering (promoter)

Suppliers

Maintenance Engineering

(Downstream)

(Operation & maintenance)

Experience feedback

Engineering (Upstream)

Maintenance politics

Design & project Engineering



� Design choices could have a huge impact on a maintenance strategy and on the chances of reaching the right quality level (availability, security, safety…) with the economic target value



� The terms of the requirements have to be chosen taking into consideration the context of use and the economic and organizational targets… which are not known by suppliers

� These choice have to be done before the call for tender (construction or renewal of a track)

Thanks to its experience of component and sub-system behaviour, the infrastructure manager:� specify and optimise new components to facilitate

maintenance, taking into account usage, environment,



maintenance, taking into account usage, environment,specific quality targets,…

� optimise the dimension of spare parts and the correspondingmaintenance organisation.

Examples:- ballasted track with PAD- manganese or movable frogs


� Some under sleeper PADhave an influence on track lifespan and geometry⇒ specific Cochet-Maumy



⇒ specific Cochet-Maumyparameters⇒ lifespan of the ballast is equivalent to the lifespan of the concrete sleeper

Maintenance interventions Average of longitudinal levelling


� Some frogs have an influence on track lifespan and geometry⇒ specific Cochet-Maumy



Cœur à Pointe Fixe LGV

0,25

0,3

Cœur à Pointe Mobile LGV

HSL fix frog

HSL movable frog⇒ specific Cochet-Maumyparameters⇒ lifespan of the frogs is higher with it is movable and installed of ballast


MT0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Cœur Pointe Fixe Béton

Cœur Pointe Fixe Bois

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Cœur Pointe Mobile Béton

Cœur Pointe Mobile Bois

MT

HSL movable frog

This approach allows a good mathematic modelling of the intuitively perceived phenomena:- regeneration vs. maintenance- a system cannot last indefinitely

The calibration of the model was based on accessible real data.

4 - Conclusions & perspectives

28

The calibration of the model was based on accessible real data.

The method is very general . This presentation shows that the application range is very wide. All replaceable infrastructure equipment can be used for such a study.


� The battle for maintenance is won or lost at the system definition & design stage

� This is essential to considerthe industrial balance of the trio made up of

4 - Conclusions & perspectives

trio made up of“Maintenance costs –Network Performances –Quality”

� A technical solution doesn't, on its own, produce the best answer!


Thanks for your attention


Dr.-Ing. Marc ANTONIInfrastructure Direction – Technical Innovation Dept.F-IRSE, M-VDEI, M-AFFI

how to use modelling for asset management · how to use modelling for asset management application...

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