HOW TO PROMOTE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: INDONESIA’s CASE

Dr. Sudhiani PratiwiDeputy Director for Climate Change, Directorate fo the Environment Affairs

Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas

Presented at:

INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM COMMEMORATING

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ACT Tokyo, December the 4th 2018

2

Geographical Condition• ± 17,000 islands • Lands 1.922.570 km2 • Water body

3.257.483 km2• Located in between

the Asia and Australia continents and Indian and Pacific ocean

Population± 261 million people (BPS 2018)

Major threats:- Increased Sea

Surface Temperature

- Changed in Rainfall intensity and pattern

- Increased Sea Level Rise

(RAN API 2014)

World Bank (2010) predict Indonesian economic loss by climate change approximately 7% from GDP if there is no quick response

Indonesia and the Potential Disaster

FLOOD

EXXTREME WEATHER

TSUNAMI

LANDSLIDE

DROUGHT

EARTHQUAKE

TECHNOLOGY FAILURE

Source: Data & Informasi Bencana Indonesia (DIBI) Tahun 1815-2012

Percentage of Disaster in Indonesia (1815-2016)

3

National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptationin National Mid-term Development Plan (RPJMN) 2015-2019

Policy Direction and Strategy for achieving climate change targets:(RPJMN 2015-2019 Book I, Chapter 6 National Development Agenda):

Energy

Housing

ForestryAgriculture

Industry

Fisheries, etc.

How to Promote Climate Change Adaptation

Input

Climate Projection

Atmospheric

Oceanic

Input

Climate Hazard

Dengue fever

Flood,Landslide,andWater availability

Rice production and productivity

Maritime safety and Coastal vulnerability

EVIDENCE BASED

• Water shortage, Flood, Drought and Landslide

• Marine transportation, Fisheries, and Coastal and Small Islands

• Vector-borne disease and water-borne disease

• Production, planting area, andplantingschedule

Vulnerability and Risk

RESILIENCE INDEX

Policy Framework

Hazard Assessment Threshold

Consideration on Vulnerability factors

Baseline (Input)

Projection 2020-2034:Scenario RCP4.5 is between 0.3 – 1.3 °CScenario RCP8.5 is between 0.5 – 1.5 °C

Projection 2030-2045:Scenario RCP4.5 and Scenario RCP8.5 are relatively between 0.6 – 1.5 °C

Monthly Rainfall Change Projection(Scenario RCP4.5* Period 2020-2035)• Rainfall decrease up to 2 mm/day

• January: Sumatera, Jawa, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi dan Papua

• May – July: from Java to NTT• Rainfall increase between 1-2.5 mm/day

• August and September: Most of Indonesian

Monthly Rainfall Change Projection (Scenario RCP4.5 Period 2030-2045)• Rainfall decrease between 1-2.5 mm/day

• May – August: most of Indonesian• Indonesia will have a dry condition

*) Scenario Representative Concentration Pathway is GHG emission according to IPCC, scenario RCP4.5 = mediumemission scenario

Indonesia’s Temperature and Rainfall Projection

• Ship with <10 GT capacity will have a narrower area due to extreme wave height (>1m)• Eastern part of Indonesia will be vulnerable for sea transportation, particularly for ship under 30GT.• Lower maritime safety and ship efficiency (high waves has a positive correlation to fuel consumption)

Source: RAN-API review, 2018

Sea Level Rise Map from Potential Hazard Assessment

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000

Sumatera

Kilometer

Sulawesi

Papua

NusaTenggara

Maluku

Kalimantan

Jawa dan Bali

INDEKS CVI PERWILAYAH KEPULAUAN INDONESIA

Main factor in determining CVI is coastal slope and erosion/acretion. The most vulnerable area is the onewith relatively flat slope and high erosion/acresion index and vice versa.

Source: RAN-API review, 2018

Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI)

Potential Risk Map for Water Availibility and Drought(projection: 2020-2034)

• In 2020-2034, the rainfall is projected to decrease up to 1-4%. A change in rainfall intensity is implied in water sector, particularly in water shortage and drought

• Northern Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara islands, and Northern Maluku will potentially have a lower water availability in 2020-2034• Drought potential in 2020-2034 will imply in all area and Nusa Tenggara islands will be more severe.

Source: RAN-API review, 2018

9

Potential Decrease in Rice Production

• An increase of temperature and a change in rainfall imply to rice production• A lower rice production is projected to be in east-north provinces, starting from Papua, Papua Barat, Maluku, Maluku Utara, Sulawesi

Tengah, Sulawesi Utara, Gorontalo, Kalimantan Utara, Kalimantan Tengah; as well as in NTB and Sumatera Selatan.

Source: RAN-API review, 2018

10

Potential Increase in Dengue Fever Incidence

• An increase in temperature and rainfall influence the dengue vector propagation which imply to the number of dengue fever• The dengue fever is projected to increase, particularly in Kalimantan’s provinces

Source: RAN-API review, 2018

11

How Related Ministries Response Issue of CCA

Preparing related regulation

Socialization and advocating

Mapping the population and vulnerable area

Improve illness control and prevention program

Improve surveillance and impact system information

Develop appropriate technology

Etc.

Flood control Road construction and re-

construction Built up area planning SPAM establishment Flat and specific housing

construction Etc.

Program continuity:• CCA Activity guidance• Criteria/ achievement

indicator of CCA activity• Inventory of the activity/

output of the related CCA organization

Program continuity:• Each sector coordination• Sectoral activity planning• Activity identification

related to CCA in Health sector (APIK)

Integrated Modern KATAM Farm insurance Development of water

harvesting infrastructure Development of 1000

organic agriculture village Proper varieties utilization Etc.

Performance indicators:• Increase cropping index• Crop planning expansion• Increase production/

productivity• Decrease crop failure• Decrease pest attack

Ministry of Agriculture

Ministry of Public Works and Housing

PKPT SIMAIL Provision of clean water Mangrove rehabilitation Geotube development Love the sea movement Beach School Fishery resources

conservation Coral ecosystem protection Etc.

Program continuity:• Performance indicator

development

Ministry of Marine and Fisheries

Ministry of Health

12

RAN-API Program & Activity in Ministry/Agency

FoodSecurity

Energy Independence Health Housing Infrastructure Ecosystem

ResilienceUrban Coastal and small

islandsSupporting

system

Model development & analysis on risk by scientist

Share with stakeholder

visualization

Selection of priority sector

feed

back

Various scenario for adaptation

Knowledge

Pilot provinces

MOEJ Phase 1 (2016-2018) - Scientific Assessment MOEJ Phase2 (2018-2021)-Science to Policy

I. Support NAP development processII. Adaptation platform III. Mainstreaming adaptation into

regional planningIV. Climate financing

III. Mainstreaming adaptation into regional

planning

II. Adaptation platform

II & III: on going

• I-PLAT framework

• Target audience & its design

• Data sharing• Maintenance

Climate change adaptation initiative in Indonesia collaboration between BAPPENAS and MOEJ

Goal :

14

Deliverables and Contributors of I-PLAT & Target Users

Academic, Scientist

Bappeda34 provinces, 416 districts,

98 cities

Users

Ministry/ Agency

Development Partners

Climate Projection

Climate Change Potential Hazard

FinishOn-goingStart

Atmospheric

Oceanic

Regional Regulation

Water

Marine & Coastal

Agriculture

Health

Vulnerability and Risk

Agriculture

Resilience Index

Loss and Damage

CCA Mainstreaming3 pilots

Urban poor

Local Govt. in 34 provinces

Loca

l inp

ut

Public

Thank You

15