how to lie with data
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How to Lie With DataSUDS Workshop, December 6th, 2016
David Newbury (@workergnome)
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Who am I?
—Programmer—Animator—Data Visualizer—Teacher
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This is not an ethics class.
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Two goals for today:
• Learn to Persuade.• Become Suspicious.
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If you want to lie...
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...there's an easy way.Falsify Data.
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We can be moresubtle than that.
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Department ofVeterans AffairsTake this data.Looks about the same?
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Department ofVeterans AffairsLet's compare them directly.
Not very dramatic, is it?
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Department ofVeterans AffairsWe can do better than that...
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Department ofVeterans AffairsOr, we could be really, reallysneaky effective.
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What is a graph?A visual summary of informationfor human interpretation.
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Graphs arevisual.
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Graphs summarize.288,987 census blocks, 9.562 million people. 1 picture.
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Graphs contain Information.• Data - facts or statements• Information - relationships • Knowledge - usefulness• Wisdom - real meaning
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Graphs arefor humans.That big white triangledoes not exist.
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Graphs are Interpreted.Graphs are confusing, but...
People trust you.
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How to Lie with Statistics (1954)
[A misleading graph] is vastly more effective, however, because it contains no adjectives or adverbs to spoil the illusion of objectivity, there's nothing anyone can pin on you.
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Graphsappear true.2000 children each yearsuffer spinal injuries.That's 0.0000003% of children.
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Words arepowerful.
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Misleading TitlesThis is actually showing
college attendance.
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Loaded LabelsHow "substantial" is the drop?
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Leading CaptionsIs the decreasepermanent or temporary?
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Images aremore powerful.
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PictographsLength vs. Count
Humans compare length...
before counting objects.
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PictographsLength vs. Area
Making something 3x larger...
makes it appear 9x bigger.
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Perspective3D looks like the future...
but it distorts ratios.
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Maps and AreaWe assign importance to size...
even if the size is irrelevant.
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A momentary pause.
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ChoosyChoosersChooseCarefully.
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Anchoring Comparisons
What will you compareyour selection to?
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Exes vs. WyesComparing two things...
implies they are related.
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Axis as AlliesOne line is total cost...
The other earnings per year.
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Pick your PointsChange is really dramatic...if you pick the points.
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Insufficient Resolution
Even if you don't cheat...
You can hide by sampling.
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Choosingyour sample.The beginning and the end...Are what people will notice.
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Watchingout for axismanipulation.
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Starting from ZeroThings begin at zero...
so you can see change.
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Choosing a ZeroChoosing what counts as zero
can be just as important.
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Stretching the TruthSame data...But one appears more volatile.
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Relative Sizes1 + 1 equals: 2 4!
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Giving Less than 100%
13 + 13 + 19 + 14equals: 59 100%!
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Everything Always Up.Adding things to each other...
Always makes them larger.
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There areothers waysto cheat.
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Breaking Norms
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Hiding Expert Information
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ConclusionsGo Here.
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Your job is to direct attention.
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Good visualizations have a point.
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There's a fine line betweenstorytelling and lying.
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My favorite example
3 versions of the same chart...
totally different stories.
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How To Not Lie:
1). The visuals should match the numbers.
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How To Not Lie:
2). Labels should be honest and accurate.
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How To Not Lie:
3). Full context should be provided.
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How To Not Lie:
4). Expert information should be conveyed.
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Thank you.
Source: http://xkcd.com/688/
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