how the people’s republic of china can avoid the middle income trap (presentation)

Upload: adb-poverty-reduction

Post on 07-Apr-2018

226 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    1/20

    HMU [HO QOMQBOP YOQ_IBC@ ML

    @HCDN @ND N\MCK [HO GCKKBO CD@MGO

    [YNQ:

    [HO PM@CNB KCGODPCMD

    Qnub \ndkodioye ndk Juzhmde ZhundeO`mdmgc`p ndk Yopony`h Koqny{god{

    Npcnd Ko|obmqgod{ IndfYoecmdnb Umyfphmq md Pm`cnb Cd`bupc|odopp cd Npcnp ogoyecde gckkbo'cd`mgo `mud{ycop

    >0 Poq{ogioy 91>16 Jnfny{n" Cdkmdopcn

    Qny{doyp: NKI" CBM" CQY@@ ndk INQQODNP

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    2/20

    QY@: nd cgqyoppc|o o`mdmgc` yo`myk

    Hceh EKQ eym{h ndk hceh qoy `nqc{n eym{h Puip{nd{cnb qm|oy{s yoku`{cmd

    Lnbbcde qymqmy{cmd ml cdlmygnb ogqbmsgod{

    Hmo|oy" ycpcde cdo~unbc{s

    N|oyneo nddunb EKQ eym{h >1/ >358'91>1

    N|oyneo nddunb EKQ q$`$eym{h

    8$3/ >358'91>1

    +>$9?-kns qm|oy{s cd`ckod`o ko`yonpo: 331'9118

    +9$11-kns qm|oy{s cd`ckod`o ko`yonpo: 8?/ {m 9?/ >331'9118

    / ml ogqbmsgod{ {hn{ cpcdlmygnb

    ko`yonpo: 33?'9118

    Ecdc `mollc`cod{ cd`yonpo: 1$;> {m 1$;5 >330'911;

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    3/20

    Gm|cde uq {ho `mud{ys'cd`mgo bnkkoy

    \oys bm cd`mgo hod o`mdmgc` yolmygp ioend" cd >358

    Nk|nd`ok lymg bm {m uqqoy'gckkbo cd >; sonyp

    P{cbb" cd`mgo bo|ob mdbs mdo'{hcyk ml hceh'cd`mgo `mud{ys

    @bnppclc`n{cmd EDC qoy`nqc{nN{bnp"`uyyod{ +

    Gckkbocd`mgo{hyophmbk" +

    Hceh cd`mgo[hyophmbk" +

    >358 Bm >31 $$ $$

    >335 Bm

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    4/20

    N|mckcde {ho GC[

    [hyoo yo~ucyogod{p lmy QY@ {m n|mck {ho GC[(@hcdn 9101: Eymcde mu{ ml Bm @mp{Nk|nd{neop" lmy{h`mgcde#: Gm|o uq {ho |nbuo `hncd" {hymueh {o`hdmbmec`nb

    cddm|n{cmd ndk cdkup{ycnb uqeynkcde Yoku`o p{yu`{uynb cginbnd`op is kooqodcde ln`{my

    gnyfo{ yolmyg" uyindczn{cmd ndk poy|c`op po`{my

    Odpuyo n pmbck lmudkn{cmd lmy eym{h inpok md:

    gn`ymo`mdmgc` ndk lcdnd`cnb p{nicbc{s6 gnfcde eym{h cd`bupc|o6

    gndnecde yopmuy`o mdp{yncd{p-od|cymdgod{6 ndk"

    bc|cde cd hnygmds c{h {ho mu{pcko mybk

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    5/20

    Pm`cnb kcgodpcmdp ml n|mckcde

    GC[>$ _yindczn{cmd'ogqbmsgod{'pm`cnb iodolc{p

    Yolmygcde hufmu

    9$ Yoinbnd`cde: {mnyk kmgop{c` `mdpugq{cmdndk yoku`cde qyo`nu{cmdnys gm{c|o {m pn|o

    Uneop" oku`n{cmd" honb{h `nyo" qodpcmdp

    0$ Yoku`cde cdo~unbc{s

    Puqqmy{cde eym{h" yoku`cde pm`cnb {odpcmd

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    6/20

    >$ _yindczn{cmd'ogqbmsgod{'

    pm`cnb iodolc{p Hufmu cp n bnyeo" udlcdcphok yolmyg

    Gceynd{p hmbk yuynb hufmu iu{ myf cd `c{cop [hup kodcok yceh{p {m uyind honb{h" hmupcde" p`hmmbcde"

    qodpcmdp" o{`$

    Eynd{cde ml uyind hufmu {m gceynd{p mubk qym|cko: gmyo po{{bok uyind qmqubn{cmd {ho n{{yn`{cmd ml gmyo gceynd{p ycpcde kmgop{c` `mdpugq{cmd

    hcehoy bo|ob ml o`mdmgc` ko|obmqgod{ Iu{ c{ mubk nbpm puip{nd{cnbbs cd`yonpo lcp`nb iuykod

    lmy bm`nb em|oydgod{p qyminibs hs hufmu np dm{ yobnxok onybcoy

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    7/20

    Pm`cnb cdpuynd`o qymeyngp

    `m|oyneo" uyind-gceynd{p" 9113

    1

    >1

    91

    01

    ;1

    ?1

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    8/20

    9$ Yoinbnd`cde

    O`mdmgs koqodkod{ md ox{oydnb kogndk ndkcd|op{god{ `mgqmdod{ ml kmgop{c` kogndk

    Dook lmy yoinbnd`cde {m kmgop{c``mdpugq{cmd

    Hceh neop mubk hobq ndk {hos nyo ycpcde

    Io{{oy pm`cnb qymeyngp {m yoku`o {hoqyo`nu{cmdnys gm{c|o {m pn|o (honb{h"oku`n{cmd" udogqbmsgod{ cdpuynd`o"qodpcmd#

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    9/20

    Eym{h cd neop ndk bnimy

    qymku`{c|c{s" >339'9118

    1

    9

    ;

    1

    >9

    >;

    >339 >330 >33; >33? >33< >335 >338 >333 9111 911> 9119 9110 911; 911? 911< 9115 9118

    Qoy`od{

    Po mdknys cdkup{ys" bnimy qymku`{c|c{s Yonb neo

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    10/20

    Oku`n{cmd

    Hcehoy |nbuo qymku`{cmd yo~ucyop io{{oy{yncdok ndk oku`n{ok myfoyp

    Gmyo qymku`{c|o myfoyp `nd io qnck hcehoyneop hc`h cd`yonpop kmgop{c``mdpugq{cmd ndk yoku`o cdo~unbc{s

    _yind oku`n{cmd psp{ogp dook {mn``mggmkn{o eynd{cde ml gmyo uyind hufmu

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    11/20

    Oku`n{cmd

    Qycgnys oku`n{cmd cp udc|oypnb

    Po`mdknys {oy{cnys oku`n{cmd hn|o eymd ynqckbs

    Po`mdk$: lymg 03/ {m 58/ ml neo `mhmy{" >331'9113

    [oy{cnys: lymg 0/ {m 9?/ ml {ho neo `mhmy{" >331'9113

    [oy{cnys p{ukod{p cd`yonpok lymg 0$9 g {m 9>$?">335'9113

    nd np{mdcphcde cd`yonpo ml >8 g p{ukod{p cd >9 sonyp. iu{ odymbgod{ bo|obp iobm {hmpo ml m{hoy gckkbo'

    cd`mgo `mud{ycop ndk |oys gu`h iobm ko|obmqok`mud{ycop

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    12/20

    1

    91

    ;1

    11

    >91

    1

    ?

    >1

    >?

    91

    9?

    >335 >338 >333 9111 911> 9119 9110 911; 911? 911< 9115 9118 9113

    Ludkcdenp/

    ml>333

    bo|ob

    Odymbbgod{cdgcbbcmd

    Odymbbgod{ cd hcehoy oku`n{cmd ndk ludkcde qoy p{ukod{

    Odymbbgod{ cd hcehoy oku n{cmd (cd gcbbcmd# Ludkcde qoy p{ukod{ (np / ml >333 bo|ob#

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    13/20

    Oku`n{cmdnb odymbgod{" pobo`{ok

    `mud{ycop" 9118

    / ml neo `mhmy{" 9118Po`mdknys [oy{cnysFmyon" Yoq$ 35 38_dc{ok P{n{op 3; 80

    Pokod >10 5>

    Jnqnd >1> ?8

    _dc{ok Fcdekmg 33 ?5

    Lynd`o >>0 ??

    @hcbo 31 ??

    Gnbnspcn 1> 0;

    Goxc`m 31 95

    @hcdn" Q$Y$ 5< 90Pmuy`o: Umybk Indf" UKC6 Dm{o: dugioy p{ukod{p odymbbok" yoenykbopp ml neo" np / ml qoypmdp cd {ho

    neo iyn`fo{ lmy {hn{ {sqo ml oku`n{cmd" {hup lceuyop gns io eyon{oy {hnd >11/

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    14/20

    Oku`n{cmd n{{ncdgod{

    Kopqc{o ynqck cd`yonpo cd odymbgod{"oku`n{cmdnb n{{ncdgod{ ml `uyyod{ myflmy`ocd {oy{cnys oku`n{cmd yogncdp onf (io`nupo

    ml {ho bne# N{{ncdgod{ pcgcbny {m m{hoy gckkbo'cd`mgo

    `mud{ycop cd {oygp ml po`mdknys oku`n{cmd

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    15/20

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    16/20

    Honb{h `nyo

    Honb{h `nyo oxqodkc{uyo qoy `nqc{n iobmgnds gckkbo cd`mgo `mud{ycop

    Bmoy {hnd Gnbnspcn" Goxc`m" Iynzcb" @hcbo"Nyeod{cdn

    Iu{ hnp cd`yonpok lc|o lmbk pcd`o >33?6 gu`hlnp{oy {hnd m{hoy `mud{ycop

    Honb{h oxqodkc{uyo np / ml EKQ yogncdp bmndk dm{ ycpcde np ynqckbs io`nupo EKQeymcde lnp{

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    17/20

    1

    >"111

    9"111

    0"111

    ;"111

    ?"111

    >#$

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    18/20

    PM_Y@O: UMYBK INDF" UMYBK KO\OBMQGOD[ CDKC@N[MYP MDBCDO (N@@OPPOK ? POQ[OGIOY 91>>#$

    1

    9

    ;

    1

    >9

    >;

    >8

    /

    mlEKQ

    Honb{h oxqodkc{uyo" / ml EKQ" >33?'9113

    >33? 9111 911? 9113

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    19/20

    0$ [hyon{ ml cdo~unbc{s

    Cdo~unbc{s gns nllo`{ {ho eym{h qym`opp{hymueh:

    Bcgc{cde {ho `md{yciu{cmd ml bmoy `bnppop {meym{h is bmoy hugnd `nqc{nb (honb{h ndkoku`n{cmd#

    Eodoyn{cde pm`cnb cdp{nicbc{s (quibc` kcppod{#

    Bcgc{cde {ho `md{yciu{cmd ml bmoy `bnppop {meodoyn{cde kmgop{c` `mdpugq{cmd kogndk

    Qny{ ml {ho yoinbnd`cde cppuo

  • 8/4/2019 How the Peoples Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap (Presentation)

    20/20

    [hndf smu