how the afcars and ncands can provide insight into linked administrative data · 2020-04-13 · i...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can ProvideInsight Into Linked Administrative Data
Christopher Wildeman1
Cornell University
September 27, 2018
1The collector of the original data, the funder, the National Data Archive on Child Abuse and Neglect, and
Cornell University and their agents or employees bear no responsibility for the analyses or interpretations herein.
![Page 2: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
My argument
![Page 3: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Has two parts
I The first is that the AFCARS and NCANDS data can be usedto show just how common various stages of CPS contact are.
I The second is that doing this presents some problems. Andcross-state data linkages, which we talk about far, far lessthan cross-system linkages, could resolve these problems.
![Page 4: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Has two parts
I The first is that the AFCARS and NCANDS data can be usedto show just how common various stages of CPS contact are.
I The second is that doing this presents some problems. Andcross-state data linkages, which we talk about far, far lessthan cross-system linkages, could resolve these problems.
![Page 5: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Has two parts
I The first is that the AFCARS and NCANDS data can be usedto show just how common various stages of CPS contact are.
I The second is that doing this presents some problems. Andcross-state data linkages, which we talk about far, far lessthan cross-system linkages, could resolve these problems.
![Page 6: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Part one
![Page 7: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
I make this argument
I Using the AFCARS and NCANDS data.
I And synthetic cohort life tables (which I will explain).
I I use confirmed maltreatment for the example but also presentestimates for investigiations, foster care placement, and TPR.
![Page 8: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
I make this argument
I Using the AFCARS and NCANDS data.
I And synthetic cohort life tables (which I will explain).
I I use confirmed maltreatment for the example but also presentestimates for investigiations, foster care placement, and TPR.
![Page 9: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
I make this argument
I Using the AFCARS and NCANDS data.
I And synthetic cohort life tables (which I will explain).
I I use confirmed maltreatment for the example but also presentestimates for investigiations, foster care placement, and TPR.
![Page 10: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
I make this argument
I Using the AFCARS and NCANDS data.
I And synthetic cohort life tables (which I will explain).
I I use confirmed maltreatment for the example but also presentestimates for investigiations, foster care placement, and TPR.
![Page 11: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
NCANDS
I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System.I According to the Children’s Bureau, “The NCANDS is a
voluntary data collection system that gathers information fromall 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico aboutreports of child abuse and neglect. . .The data are used toexamine trends in child abuse and neglect across the country.”
I Although voluntary, >44 states have reported since 2004.I Used for investigation and confirmed maltreatment estimates.
![Page 12: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
NCANDS
I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System.I According to the Children’s Bureau, “The NCANDS is a
voluntary data collection system that gathers information fromall 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico aboutreports of child abuse and neglect. . .The data are used toexamine trends in child abuse and neglect across the country.”
I Although voluntary, >44 states have reported since 2004.I Used for investigation and confirmed maltreatment estimates.
![Page 13: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
NCANDS
I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System.I According to the Children’s Bureau, “The NCANDS is a
voluntary data collection system that gathers information fromall 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico aboutreports of child abuse and neglect. . .The data are used toexamine trends in child abuse and neglect across the country.”
I Although voluntary, >44 states have reported since 2004.I Used for investigation and confirmed maltreatment estimates.
![Page 14: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
NCANDS
I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System.I According to the Children’s Bureau, “The NCANDS is a
voluntary data collection system that gathers information fromall 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico aboutreports of child abuse and neglect. . .The data are used toexamine trends in child abuse and neglect across the country.”
I Although voluntary, >44 states have reported since 2004.I Used for investigation and confirmed maltreatment estimates.
![Page 15: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
NCANDS
I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System.I According to the Children’s Bureau, “The NCANDS is a
voluntary data collection system that gathers information fromall 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico aboutreports of child abuse and neglect. . .The data are used toexamine trends in child abuse and neglect across the country.”
I Although voluntary, >44 states have reported since 2004.I Used for investigation and confirmed maltreatment estimates.
![Page 16: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
AFCARS
I Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System.I According to the Children’s Bureau, “The AFCARS data
contain case level information on all children in foster care forwhom State and Tribal title IV-E agencies have responsibilityfor placement, care or supervision and on children adoptedunder the auspices of the State and Tribal title IV-E agency.”
I Reporting is not voluntary. All 50 states since 2000.I Used for foster care placement and termination estimates.
![Page 17: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
AFCARS
I Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System.I According to the Children’s Bureau, “The AFCARS data
contain case level information on all children in foster care forwhom State and Tribal title IV-E agencies have responsibilityfor placement, care or supervision and on children adoptedunder the auspices of the State and Tribal title IV-E agency.”
I Reporting is not voluntary. All 50 states since 2000.I Used for foster care placement and termination estimates.
![Page 18: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
AFCARS
I Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System.I According to the Children’s Bureau, “The AFCARS data
contain case level information on all children in foster care forwhom State and Tribal title IV-E agencies have responsibilityfor placement, care or supervision and on children adoptedunder the auspices of the State and Tribal title IV-E agency.”
I Reporting is not voluntary. All 50 states since 2000.I Used for foster care placement and termination estimates.
![Page 19: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
AFCARS
I Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System.I According to the Children’s Bureau, “The AFCARS data
contain case level information on all children in foster care forwhom State and Tribal title IV-E agencies have responsibilityfor placement, care or supervision and on children adoptedunder the auspices of the State and Tribal title IV-E agency.”
I Reporting is not voluntary. All 50 states since 2000.I Used for foster care placement and termination estimates.
![Page 20: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
AFCARS
I Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System.I According to the Children’s Bureau, “The AFCARS data
contain case level information on all children in foster care forwhom State and Tribal title IV-E agencies have responsibilityfor placement, care or supervision and on children adoptedunder the auspices of the State and Tribal title IV-E agency.”
I Reporting is not voluntary. All 50 states since 2000.I Used for foster care placement and termination estimates.
![Page 21: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Synthetic cohort (or period) life tables
I Tells us what proportion of a hypothetical cohort of childrenwould ever experience confirmed maltreatment if they weresubjected to any given year’s age-specific first-confirmedmaltreatment rates at each age from birth through age 18.
![Page 22: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Synthetic cohort (or period) life tables
I Tells us what proportion of a hypothetical cohort of childrenwould ever experience confirmed maltreatment if they weresubjected to any given year’s age-specific first-confirmedmaltreatment rates at each age from birth through age 18.
![Page 23: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Building a synthetic cohort life table
Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Age 10, 2005Age nDx nNx nANx nmx nqx 0cx
123456789
10
![Page 24: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Building a synthetic cohort life table
Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Age 10, 2005Age nDx nNx nANx nmx nqx 0cx
1 1,9972 1,0713 1,0014 9575 9246 9377 9058 8369 763
10 713
![Page 25: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Building a synthetic cohort life table
Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Age 10, 2005Age nDx nNx nANx nmx nqx 0cx
1 1,997 4,095,5372 1,071 4,098,2883 1,001 4,058,3684 957 4,049,9685 924 4,052,5796 937 3,931,2747 905 3,885,4718 836 3,890,5189 763 3,907,974
10 713 3,977,966
![Page 26: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Building a synthetic cohort life table
Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Age 10, 2005Age nDx nNx nANx nmx nqx 0cx
1 1,997 4,095,5372 1,071 4,098,2883 1,001 4,058,3684 957 4,049,9685 924 4,052,5796 937 3,931,2747 905 3,885,4718 836 3,890,5189 763 3,907,974
10 713 3,977,966
![Page 27: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Building a synthetic cohort life table
Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Age 10, 2005Age nDx nNx nANx nmx nqx 0cx
1 1,997 4,095,537 .020 .019 .0192 1,071 4,098,2883 1,001 4,058,3684 957 4,049,9685 924 4,052,5796 937 3,931,2747 905 3,885,4718 836 3,890,5189 763 3,907,974
10 713 3,977,966
![Page 28: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Building a synthetic cohort life table
Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Age 10, 2005Age nDx nNx nANx nmx nqx 0cx
1 1,997 4,095,537 .020 .019 .0192 1,071 4,098,2883 1,001 4,058,3684 957 4,049,9685 924 4,052,5796 937 3,931,2747 905 3,885,4718 836 3,890,5189 763 3,907,974
10 713 3,977,966
![Page 29: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Building a synthetic cohort life table
Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Age 10, 2005Age nDx nNx nANx nmx nqx 0cx
1 1,997 4,095,537 .020 .019 .0192 1,071 4,098,2883 1,001 4,058,3684 957 4,049,9685 924 4,052,5796 937 3,931,2747 905 3,885,4718 836 3,890,5189 763 3,907,974
10 713 3,977,966
![Page 30: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Building a synthetic cohort life table
Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Age 10, 2005Age nDx nNx nANx nmx nqx 0cx
1 1,997 4,095,537 .020 .019 .0192 1,071 4,098,288 4,016,4503 1,001 4,058,3684 957 4,049,9685 924 4,052,5796 937 3,931,2747 905 3,885,4718 836 3,890,5189 763 3,907,974
10 713 3,977,966
![Page 31: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Building a synthetic cohort life table
Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Age 10, 2005Age nDx nNx nANx nmx nqx 0cx
1 1,997 4,095,537 .020 .019 .0192 1,071 4,098,288 4,016,4503 1,001 4,058,3684 957 4,049,9685 924 4,052,5796 937 3,931,2747 905 3,885,4718 836 3,890,5189 763 3,907,974
10 713 3,977,966
![Page 32: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Building a synthetic cohort life table
Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Age 10, 2005Age nDx nNx nANx nmx nqx 0cx
1 1,997 4,095,537 .020 .019 .0192 1,071 4,098,288 4,016,450 .011 .0113 1,001 4,058,3684 957 4,049,9685 924 4,052,5796 937 3,931,2747 905 3,885,4718 836 3,890,5189 763 3,907,974
10 713 3,977,966
![Page 33: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Building a synthetic cohort life table
Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Age 10, 2005Age nDx nNx nANx nmx nqx 0cx
1 1,997 4,095,537 .020 .019 .0192 1,071 4,098,288 4,016,450 .011 .011 .0313 1,001 4,058,3684 957 4,049,9685 924 4,052,5796 937 3,931,2747 905 3,885,4718 836 3,890,5189 763 3,907,974
10 713 3,977,966
![Page 34: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
●
● ●
● ● ● ●●
For Males
Pro
port
ion
of C
hild
ren
2004 2006 2008 2010
00.
005
0.01
0.01
50.
02
●
● ●
● ● ● ● ●
For Females
2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Proportion of Children with Confirmed Maltreatment
Total
![Page 35: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
●
● ●
● ● ● ●●
●
● ●
● ● ● ●●
For Males
Pro
port
ion
of C
hild
ren
2004 2006 2008 2010
00.
005
0.01
0.01
50.
02
●
● ●
● ● ● ● ●
●
● ●
● ● ● ● ●
For Females
2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Proportion of Children with Confirmed Maltreatment
Total White
![Page 36: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
●
● ●
● ● ● ●●
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● ●
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For Males
Pro
port
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of C
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ren
2004 2006 2008 2010
00.
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0.01
0.01
50.
02
●
● ●
● ● ● ● ●
●
● ●
● ● ● ● ●
●
●●
●● ●
●●
For Females
2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Proportion of Children with Confirmed Maltreatment
Total WhiteBlack
![Page 37: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
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●
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● ● ● ●●
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●●
●
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●●
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●●
● ●● ●
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For Males
Pro
port
ion
of C
hild
ren
2004 2006 2008 2010
00.
005
0.01
0.01
50.
02
●
● ●
● ● ● ● ●
●
● ●
● ● ● ● ●
●
●●
●● ●
●●
●
●●
●●
● ●●
For Females
2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Proportion of Children with Confirmed Maltreatment
Total WhiteBlackHispanic Origin
![Page 38: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
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● ●● ●
●
● ● ● ● ● ●● ●
For Males
Pro
port
ion
of C
hild
ren
2004 2006 2008 2010
00.
005
0.01
0.01
50.
02
●
● ●
● ● ● ● ●
●
● ●
● ● ● ● ●
●
●●
●● ●
●●
●
●●
●●
● ●●
● ●●
● ● ●● ●
For Females
2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Proportion of Children with Confirmed Maltreatment
Total WhiteBlackHispanic OriginAsian
![Page 39: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
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●
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●
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●●
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●●
● ●● ●
●
● ● ● ● ● ●● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
For Males
Pro
port
ion
of C
hild
ren
2004 2006 2008 2010
00.
005
0.01
0.01
50.
02
●
● ●
● ● ● ● ●
●
● ●
● ● ● ● ●
●
●●
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●●
●
●●
●●
● ●●
● ●●
● ● ●● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
For Females
2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Proportion of Children with Confirmed Maltreatment
Total WhiteBlackHispanic OriginAsianNative American
![Page 40: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
●
●●
●● ●
●●
● ● ●● ●
● ● ●●
●
For Males
Pro
port
ion
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
00.
010.
020.
030.
04
●
●●
●●
● ●●
●● ● ● ●
● ● ●●
●
For Females
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Age
Age−Specific Risk for First Confirmed Maltreatment, 2005
Total
![Page 41: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
●
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●
● ●●
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● ●● ● ●
● ● ● ● ●●
●
For Males
Pro
port
ion
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
00.
010.
020.
030.
04
●
●●
●●
● ●●
●● ● ● ●
● ● ●●
●
●
●●
● ●●
● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●
●
●
For Females
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Age
Age−Specific Risk for First Confirmed Maltreatment, 2005
Total White
![Page 42: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
●
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●
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●●
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● ● ●●
●
For Males
Pro
port
ion
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
00.
010.
020.
030.
04
●
●●
●●
● ●●
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●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●●
● ● ●● ● ●
●
●
For Females
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Age
Age−Specific Risk for First Confirmed Maltreatment, 2005
Total WhiteBlack
![Page 43: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
●
●●
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●● ●
●● ● ● ● ●
●
●
For Males
Pro
port
ion
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
00.
010.
020.
030.
04
●
●●
●●
● ●●
●● ● ● ●
● ● ●●
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● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●
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●
●
●
●●
●● ● ● ● ●
● ● ●●
● ● ●
●
●
For Females
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Age
Age−Specific Risk for First Confirmed Maltreatment, 2005
Total WhiteBlackHispanic Origin
![Page 44: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
●
●●
●● ●
●●
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●
●
●
● ● ●●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
For Males
Pro
port
ion
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
00.
010.
020.
030.
04
●
●●
●●
● ●●
●● ● ● ●
● ● ●●
●
●
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● ●●
● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●
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●
●●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●
● ● ● ●●
For Females
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Age
Age−Specific Risk for First Confirmed Maltreatment, 2005
Total WhiteBlackHispanic OriginAsian
![Page 45: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
●
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For Males
Pro
port
ion
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
00.
010.
020.
030.
04
●
●●
●●
● ●●
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● ● ● ●●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
● ● ●
●● ● ● ●
●●
●
For Females
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Age
Age−Specific Risk for First Confirmed Maltreatment, 2005
Total WhiteBlackHispanic OriginAsianNative American
![Page 46: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
●
●●
● ●● ●
●
For Males
Cum
ulat
ive
Ris
k
2004 2006 2008 2010
00.
050.
10.
150.
20.
25
●
●●
● ●● ● ●
For Females
2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Demographic Group
Total
![Page 47: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
●
●●
● ●● ●
●
●
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● ●●
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For Males
Cum
ulat
ive
Ris
k
2004 2006 2008 2010
00.
050.
10.
150.
20.
25
●
●●
● ●● ● ●
●
●●
● ●●
● ●
For Females
2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Demographic Group
Total White
![Page 48: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
●
●●
● ●● ●
●
●
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For Males
Cum
ulat
ive
Ris
k
2004 2006 2008 2010
00.
050.
10.
150.
20.
25
●
●●
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● ●
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●
●
●●
● ● ●
For Females
2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Demographic Group
Total WhiteBlack
![Page 49: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
●
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●
●
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For Males
Cum
ulat
ive
Ris
k
2004 2006 2008 2010
00.
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10.
150.
20.
25
●
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●
●
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● ● ●
●
● ●
●●
● ●●
For Females
2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Demographic Group
Total WhiteBlackHispanic Origin
![Page 50: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
●
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For Males
Cum
ulat
ive
Ris
k
2004 2006 2008 2010
00.
050.
10.
150.
20.
25
●
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●
● ●
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● ●●
● ●●
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●●
For Females
2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Demographic Group
Total WhiteBlackHispanic OriginAsian
![Page 51: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
●
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Cum
ulat
ive
Ris
k
2004 2006 2008 2010
00.
050.
10.
150.
20.
25
●
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●
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●
● ●
For Females
2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Demographic Group
Total WhiteBlackHispanic OriginAsianNative American
![Page 52: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Maltreatment Investigation
Tota
l
Whit
eBlac
k
Hispan
ic
Asian
Native
Am
erica
n
Ris
k
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Confirmed Maltreatment
Tota
l
Whit
eBlac
k
Hispan
ic
Asian
Native
Am
erica
n
Ris
k
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Foster Care Placement
Tota
l
Whit
eBlac
k
Hispan
ic
Asian
Native
Am
erica
n
Ris
k
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Termination of Parental Rights
Tota
l
Whit
eBlac
k
Hispan
ic
Asian
Native
Am
erica
n
Ris
k
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Maltreatment Investigation
Black
Hispan
ic
Asian
Native
Am
erica
n
Ris
k
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Confirmed Maltreatment
Black
Hispan
ic
Asian
Native
Am
erica
n
Ris
k
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Foster Care Placement
Black
Hispan
ic
Asian
Native
Am
erica
n
Ris
k
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Termination of Parental Rights
Black
Hispan
ic
Asian
Native
Am
erica
n
Ris
k
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Inequality in the Cumulative Prevalence of Child Welfare System Contact
Cumulative Prevalence by Race
Inequality in Risk by Race (Compared to White Children)
![Page 53: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Part two
![Page 54: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
But there’s a problem
I These estimates are (I think slightly) upwardly biased.
I Children have state-specific unique IDs, not national IDs.
I So children could be counted multiple times in different states.
![Page 55: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
But there’s a problem
I These estimates are (I think slightly) upwardly biased.
I Children have state-specific unique IDs, not national IDs.
I So children could be counted multiple times in different states.
![Page 56: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
But there’s a problem
I These estimates are (I think slightly) upwardly biased.
I Children have state-specific unique IDs, not national IDs.
I So children could be counted multiple times in different states.
![Page 57: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
But there’s a problem
I These estimates are (I think slightly) upwardly biased.
I Children have state-specific unique IDs, not national IDs.
I So children could be counted multiple times in different states.
![Page 58: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
And there’s not a perfect solution
I Birth cohort estimates are (likely slightly) downwardly biased.
I And these issues both exist in state-level data, unfortunately.
![Page 59: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
And there’s not a perfect solution
I Birth cohort estimates are (likely slightly) downwardly biased.
I And these issues both exist in state-level data, unfortunately.
![Page 60: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
And there’s not a perfect solution
I Birth cohort estimates are (likely slightly) downwardly biased.
I And these issues both exist in state-level data, unfortunately.
![Page 61: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
Solution one
I Both solutions advocate cross-state administrative datalinkages, which we think about less than cross-system linkages.
I Get data from multiple states.
I Show how much bias not accounting for migration introduces.
I Problem: Harmonizing data, only a marginally better estimate.
![Page 62: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Solution one
I Both solutions advocate cross-state administrative datalinkages, which we think about less than cross-system linkages.
I Get data from multiple states.
I Show how much bias not accounting for migration introduces.
I Problem: Harmonizing data, only a marginally better estimate.
![Page 63: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
Solution one
I Both solutions advocate cross-state administrative datalinkages, which we think about less than cross-system linkages.
I Get data from multiple states.
I Show how much bias not accounting for migration introduces.
I Problem: Harmonizing data, only a marginally better estimate.
![Page 64: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Solution one
I Both solutions advocate cross-state administrative datalinkages, which we think about less than cross-system linkages.
I Get data from multiple states.
I Show how much bias not accounting for migration introduces.
I Problem: Harmonizing data, only a marginally better estimate.
![Page 65: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
Solution one
I Both solutions advocate cross-state administrative datalinkages, which we think about less than cross-system linkages.
I Get data from multiple states.
I Show how much bias not accounting for migration introduces.
I Problem: Harmonizing data, only a marginally better estimate.
![Page 66: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Solution two
I Could there by a way with the AFCARS/NCANDS?
I Data access isn’t possible now, but would be ideal because itis national in nature and already harmonized across states.
![Page 67: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
Solution two
I Could there by a way with the AFCARS/NCANDS?
I Data access isn’t possible now, but would be ideal because itis national in nature and already harmonized across states.
![Page 68: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Solution two
I Could there by a way with the AFCARS/NCANDS?
I Data access isn’t possible now, but would be ideal because itis national in nature and already harmonized across states.
![Page 69: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042318/5f07f4957e708231d41f99b1/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Thanks so much for your time