HOW SYSTEM THINKING APPROACHES AND

THE NOTION OF ENERGY METABOLISM OF

URBAN SOCIOECONOMIC SECTORS CAN

INFORM ENERGY CONSERVATION POLICIES

Brian D. Fath Professor, Biology Department, Towson University, USA

Research Scholar and YSSP Scientific Coordinator

IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

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Outline

1) Complex Adaptive Systems

2) Networks

3) Resilience and the Adaptive Cycle

4) Cities as complex systems

5) Urban Metabolism

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1. General Systems Theory

All systems possess four properties:

1) wholeness and order

(the systemic or state property, "S")

2) intra- and inter-systemic hierarchies

(the holon property, "H")

3) adaptive self-stabilization (system cybernetics I)

4) adaptive self-organization (system cybernetics II)

(cybernetics being the basis of "A").

Complex Adaptive Hierarchical Systems (CAHSystems)

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The ORDER in Complexity

changes our view of appropriate methods

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If everything is connected to

everything else, then how can we

ever know anything?

2. Why networks are important

Analyzing the system can help avoid unwanted or

unexpected consequences.

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Ecological Food Web

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DepositedDetritus

x2 = 1000.00

Filter Feeders

x1 = 2000.00

Meiofauna

x4 = 24.12140

Microbiota

x3 = 2.4121

DepositFeeders

x5 = 16.2740

Predators

x6 = 69.2367

z1 = 41.4697

y4 = 3.5794

y5 = 0.4303

y6 = 0.3594

y3 = 5.7600

y2 = 6.1759

y1 = 25.1646

f26 = 0.3262f21 = 15.7915

f61 = 0.5135

f25 = 1.9076

f32 = 8.1721

f65 = 0.1721

f52 = 0.6431

f42 = 7.2745f54 = 0.6609

f24 = 4.2403

f53 = 1.2060

f43 = 1.2060

Oyster Reef Model

Dame and Patten 1981 – flow is in kcal/(day m2), storage

in kcal/m2

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Weighted,

directed

graph

Path Analysis

aij – enumerates

number of

pathways in a

network

Flow Analysis (gij = fij/Tj)

identifies flow intensities along

indirect pathways

Storage Analysis (cij = fij/xj)

identifies storage intensities along

indirect pathways

Utility Analysis (dij = (fij – fji)/Ti)

identifies utility intensities along

indirect pathways

Ecological Network Analysis

Flow: N = I + G + G2 + G3 + G4 +…

Storage: Q = I + P + P2 + P3 + P4 +…

Utility: U = I + D + D2 + D3 + D4 +…

integral = initial + direct + indirect

input

Key findings:

• Quantify input and output flow

• Indirect flows > direct flows

• Flows are well mixed

• Mutualistic relations dominate

Propagation of network indirect effects

3. Adaptive Cycle: Holling’s 4-stage model of

ecosystem dynamics

Ori

ento

r

rs.resalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/02/4box-adaptive-cycle.gif

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Adaptive Cycle - reoriented

Burkhard et al. 2011

r

Ω α

K

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Benefits of collapse

• Schumpeter labeled the collapse, “creative

destruction”, since it allowed for new

configurations and innovation opportunities

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Develop-

mental

potential

Connectedness

Developmental opportunities result from the collapse

r

Ω

α

K

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ecosy

stem

in

dic

ato

r

number of connections

Long-term succession of ecosystems: small-scale disturbances

may support the development of the overall system.

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4. Cities as complex systems

“Urban planning is a problem of handling

organized complexity”

Jane Jacobs, 1961

Many interacting parts, fine grained, local

interactions, emergent properties.

Urban Metabolism and networks 2/26/2015 15

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Chicago Pop. growth

1850 - 30,000

1870 - 300,000

1890 - 1,000,000

1920 - 2,000,000

the rebuilding that began almost

immediately spurred Chicago's development

into one of the most populous and

economically important American and

international cities

Fire 1871

Chicago as a CAS

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Other urban examples and the responses:

• San Francisco Earthquake 1906

• Hurricane Katrina 2005

• Oil shock - Suburban Sprawl 21st Century

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Urban Ecosystems

Amalgamations of Socio-ecological-economic

systems

Three issues: A. understanding a city as a system

B. understanding specific environmental impacts of

cities

C. understanding a city as a sense of space (human

niche)

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A. City as system Inputs: air, water, food, fuels, raw materials, people

Outputs: waste heat, finished goods, ideas, wastewater,

solid wastes, air pollutants

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autocatalytic loops in the

biosphere and an

economy

B. Impacts on Environment

Loss of habitat

Impervious surface increase

Alter biogeochemical cycles

Water - increases runoff & flooding (faster & higher peak)

Nitrogen - air pollution (smog)

Phosphorus - water pollution (runoff, wastewater)

Sulfur - air pollution (acid rain)

Carbon - GHG emissions

Microclimate changes

Transportation requirements

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C. Built Environment - We define our

space (landscape): Space defines us

Quality of life = quality of public

spaces

Places of quality and character need

a successful definition of space

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Jan Gehl – Cities for People

• Lively

• Safe

• Sustainable

• Healthy

Humans:

A linear, frontal, horizontal mammal walking at max 5km/h

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Lively

• More social contact with well-designed public spaces;

walking, biking, public transit, chance encounters

• A city’s greatest attraction: People

• People come where people are

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Safety

• More eyes on the street

• Fewer auto accidents

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Sustainable

• Green mobility

• Fewer emissions

• Less noise

A good transportation system minimizes unnecessary transportation;

and it offers change of speed and mode to fit a diversity of human

purposes. p. 57. Marshall 2000

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Healthy

• Exercise integrated into daily routines

• Cleaner air

• Greener access

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Christopher Alexander - A Pattern Language

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Nature of Order - Alexander

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Key feature is forming and maintaining self-sustaining cycles

Ecological Structure and Function

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5. Quantitative analysis of urban

metabolism and health

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Urban Metabolism:

Case study of Four Chinese Cities

Zhang et al. 2010. Ecol. Model. 1865-1879.

Beijing

Chongqing

Shanghai

Tianjin

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Energy

transformation

sector

Energy

exploi tat ion

sector

Industrial

sector

Primary energySecondary energy

Input

Output

Input

LossLoss

Loss

Byproduct resource recovery

Byproduct resource recovery

Living

sector

Primary energy

Primary energy

Secondary energy

Byproduct resource recovery

Byproduct

resource

recovery

Loss

Byproduct resource

recovery

Input

Output

Input

Output

Output

Conceptual model of urban energy metabolic processes

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Living sector

i=4

Industrial

sector

i=3

Energy

exploi tat ion

sector

i=1

y1

f41

f21 f31

z1

f25

z2 y2

z4

z3

f32

f35

f54

Energy

transformation

sector

i=2

Recovery

i=5

f42 f52

f53

Ecological network of urban energy metabolism

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Beijing (FB) Shanghai (FS) 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5

1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

2 0.087 0 0 0 0 2 0.093 0 0 0 1.036 3 0 1.929 0 0 0 3 0.009 2.946 0 0 0.008 4 0 0.080 0 0 0 4 0 0.143 0 0 0

5 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0.004 1.032 0.008 0

Tianjin (FT)

Chongqing (FC) 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5

1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

2 0.517 0 0 0 0.080 2 1.425 0 0 0 0.082 3 0.024 1.045 0 0 0.119 3 1.514 0.627 0 0 0.346 4 0 0.175 0 0 0 4 0.106 0 0 0 0

5 0 0 0.199 0 0 5 0 0.001 0.427 0 0

Direct flows among sectors (units: 107 t standard coal eq.)

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0.070

0.553

0.272 0.105

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

1

2

3+4

5

0.008

0.047

0.602

0.308

0.035

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

1

2

3+4

5

0.013

0.208

0.521

0.236 0.023

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

1

2

3+4

5

0.739

0.046

0.139

0.042

0.034

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

1

2

3+4

5

Beijing Shanghai

Tianjin Chongqing

Ecological structure of the urban energy metabolic system.

Sectors: 1 energy exploitation; 2 energy transformation; 3 industrial;

4 household; 5 recovery.

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Water network model of Beijing

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“Trophic” water structure of Beijing

Holistic interactions between sectors

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Urban Ecosystem Health using energy-

based measurements

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Overall health status from Chinese case

studies

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Conclusions

• Cities depend on exogenous energy resources

• Urban trophic structure mostly inverted

• Additional energy recovery systems needed

• Households and industry always in competition for final

demand energy

• Energy efficiency improvements can help but more

importantly are how the energy networks are formed and

maintained.

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Take Home

• “It may be that all self-sustaining

systems are reciprocating.” p. 126.

Jane Jacobs. 1969. The Economy of Cities

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THANK YOU FOR

YOUR ATTENTION

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