How People Voted
The Election of 2008
Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives
• Understand the decision making process for why people vote as they do and how this changes over time.
• Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice
• Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2008 Election.
SES AND GROUP FACTORSA Long Term Factor
Group Voting
• What makes a group important?
• The Democrats think more in group terms
Four Groups that Made a difference in 2008
• African Americans
• Latinos
• Young Voters
• Highly educated voters
RACE AND ETHNICITY
African American vote in 2008
• Compared to 2004
– Higher Turnout– More Democratic
• Why African Americans Were Important
Hispanic Voters
• The Fastest growing and largest ethnicity
• Increasingly Democratic since 2000
• Key in CO, FL, NM
Race and Vote in 2008
AGEA Long Term Factor
Young Voters in 2008
• 2-1 For Obama
• Why
• What about other Age Groups
Age and Vote 2008
EDUCATIONSES Long Term Factor
Education in 2008
• A curvilinear relationship
• Obama Does well with both ends of the education spectrum
Education and Vote
Identification vs. Behavior
• Being a member of a Religion is not an accurate predictor of vote choice
• Religious activity is a much better predictor
Church Attendance and Vote
Who you are
• Jewish voters
• Catholics
Vote By Religion- 2008
Gender and Marriage
• The Gender Gap
• Why?
Marriage
• Married People vote Republican
• Singles vote Democratic
Decline of Security Moms
PARTISANSHIPStill the biggest factor in vote choice
Party Identification
• A perpetual screen
• More important in recent years
• Still the Best Predictor
There are more Democrats in 2008
• The Long primary
• Generational/ Regional Replacement
• Mobilizing African American Voters
2008 Vote by Party ID
What about Independents
• Pure Independents vs. Leaners
• Independents go for Obama
Timing of the vote
Short Term Factors
Issues, Candidates & Image
Candidate Evaluations vs. Issues
ISSUESShort Term Factor 1
Most Important Issues
ECONOMIC ISSUESThe Big One
The Economy
• The events of 9/14
The War in Iraq
• No longer the salient Issue of the election
• Good news from Iraq did not change people’s minds
• Obama could claim opposition from day 1
Health Care
• Not as important as you might think (9% most important problem)
Energy Policy
• One of the reasons McCain goes with Palin
• Never panned out as an issue
• Cheap oil throughout the fall
Immigration
• No One cared
• Neither candidate had anything to gain by raising the issue
CANDIDATE EVALUATIONSShort Term Factor
Hope and Change
• A message that worked
• It meant everything and nothing at the same time
Hope as a message
McCain- Old and Out of Touch
The Republican Brand
Retrospective voting on Bush
• Bush is Unpopular
McCain Vs. Bush
• In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush
• In reality no way to distance himself from Bush