How Much and Where?How Much and Where? --How Much and Where? How Much and Where? --Land with Opportunities forLand with Opportunities forForest Forest Landscape RestorationLandscape Restoration

Lars LaestadiusLars LaestadiusWorld Resources InstituteWorld Resources Institute

Peter Potapov Peter Potapov South Dakota State South Dakota State UniversityUniversity

21 October 201021 October 2010

Forest Landscapes—Potential ExtentForest Landscapes—Potential Extent

forests (darker green), woodlands (lighter green)Dark green – forestLight green – woodlands

Forest Landscapes—Current ExtentForest Landscapes—Current Extent

green – forests, light green – woodlands/sparse tree cover, yellow – deforestedDark green – forest Yellow – former forest or woodlandLight green – woodlands

these categories have been assigned.Table 1. Types of opportunities for restoration of converted or degraded forest land

In search of restoration opportunitiesIn search of restoration opportunities 

What lands? • Forest landscapes• Forest status less than potential• Not croplands or intensively used• Not urban lands

PotentialForest

PotentialWoodland

Restoration to what?

Population low Restore to forest  Restore to mosaic

Population high Restore to mosaic Restore to mosaic

Restoration to forestRestoration to forest——Opportunity LandsOpportunity Lands

China

Madagascar

Restoration to mosaicRestoration to mosaic——Opportunity LandsOpportunity Lands

ChinaRussia

In search of restoration opportunitiesIn search of restoration opportunities 

Method and data• Spatial / map‐based• Pre‐existing datasets / maps• Globally consistent• Resolution 1x1 km• Boreal not included

Result• Lands that are rich in restoration opportunities• ”Clouds of probability”• Accuracy limited by underlying dataAccuracy limited by underlying data

Type of land Classification Source

1. Intact forest Intact forest landscapes  (3)

2. Managed natural forestsForest (satellite)Tree cover (landcover map)

(2)(4)

3. Degraded forestForest (satellite)Cultivated lands or agroforestry mosaic (landcover map)

(2)(4)

Degraded and partially deforested Woodlands (satellite) (2)4.

Degraded and partially deforested potential forest

Woodlands (satellite)Potential for supporting forest (climate, soils)

(2)(1)

5. Deforested potential forestNon‐forest (satellite)Potential for supporting forest (climate, soils)

(2)(1)

6. Natural/managed woodlandsWoodlands (satellite)Potential for supporting woodlands (climate, soils)Un‐managed land (landcover map) 

(2)(1)(4)

7.Degraded and partially deforested potential woodlands

Woodlands (satellite)Potential for supporting woodlands (climate, soils)Non‐forest or cultivated land (landcover map) 

(2)(1)(4)

8. Deforested potential woodlandsNon‐forest (satellite)Potential for supporting woodlands (climate, soils)

(2)(1)

(1) Potential forest cover map(2) Current forest cover map(3) Global intact forest landscapes map(4) Global landcover map

Potential Forest Landscapes: Statusp

Dark green ‐ intact forest landscapes; Green ‐ natural/managed forests;  Very light green ‐ natural/managed woodlands

Lighter green – degraded forests; Orange ‐ degraded and partially deforested forests/woodlands;  Red ‐ deforested forests/woodlands

Human pressurep(land‐use intensity and population density)

Opportunities for Restoration

Dark green – restore  to forest  Bright yellow – irrigated croplands Light green – restore to mosaic Light yellow – rainfed croplands

Opportunities for Forest Landscape Restorationpp pMore than a Billion Hectares

Asia

Africa

South America

Europe & Russia

Oceania

North & Central America

0 100 200 300 400 500Million hectares

Wide-scale restoration Mosaic-type restorationTo forest To mosaicFrance

Restoration to ForestRestoration to Forest(Million hectares)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

BrazilChina

MyanmarIndonesia

Russian FederationRussian FederationColombia

Lao People's Democratic RepublicAustraliaThailand

IndiaCЇte d'Ivoire

TurkeyCambodiaViet NamEthiopia

United States of AmericaVenezuela

CanadaEcuador

GhanaDemocratic Republic of the Congo

United Republic of TanzaniaMadagascarMozambiqueMozambiqueNew Zealand

Restoration to Mosaic

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Restoration to Mosaic(Million hectares)

BrazilChina

AustraliaUnited States of America

Russian FederationMadagascar

AngolaIndonesia

DR CongogNigeria

IndiaMexico

ArgentinaSudanSudan

MozambiqueUnited Republic of Tanzania

TurkeyZambiaBolivia

CanadaCЇte d'Ivoire

ColombiaGuineaGuinea

ChadEthiopia

Halt Loss AND Restore—We Need Both

Dark green – restore  to forest Red – Tropical deforestation 2000‐2005Light green – restore to mosaic

Global and National PlanningBiodiversity, REDD+, Adaptation, Livelihoods, etc