how life history theory can be viewed as an organizing ... · how life history theory can be viewed...
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How life history theory can be viewed as an organizing framework for understanding variation in birth outcomes, and how the built environment and
neighborhood contexts offer an opportunities for public health interventions
National Conference on Health Statistics Session: How measurement and modeling of social determinants of health can
inform actions to reduce disparities Washington, D.C. - 7 August 2012
Daniel J. Kruger University of Michigan
Energy/Resources
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Building a healthy baby
National Conference on Health Statistics Session: How measurement and modeling of social determinants of health can
inform actions to reduce disparities Washington, D.C. - 7 August 2012
Daniel J. Kruger University of Michigan
Energy/Resources
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African American Infant Mortality Trends Genesee County Michigan
The Genesee County, Michigan REACH US project is a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention funded program to reduce the African American health disparity in infant mortality. Coalition partners include the local public health infrastructure, academics, and community-based organizations.
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6 Local, State & National Policy
5 Providers/Health Care System
4 Social Environment
3 Social Network
2 Family
1Individual
Socio-Ecological Model
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Socio-Ecological Model
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Socio-Ecological Model
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Life History Theory
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Life History Theory • Integrates evolutionary, ecological, and socio-developmental perspectives.
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Life History Theory • Integrates evolutionary, ecological, and socio-developmental perspectives. • Examines how organisms allocate effort over their lifetimes to maximize
fitness (contributions to future generations).
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Life History Theory • Integrates evolutionary, ecological, and socio-developmental perspectives. • Examines how organisms allocate effort over their lifetimes to maximize
fitness (contributions to future generations). • Illustrates how investment trade-offs are shaped by the environment
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Life History Theory
Energy/Resources
• Integrates evolutionary, ecological, and socio-developmental perspectives. • Examines how organisms allocate effort over their lifetimes to maximize
fitness (contributions to future generations). • Illustrates how investment trade-offs are shaped by the environment
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Life History Theory
Energy/Resources
Somatic effort Reproductive effort
• Integrates evolutionary, ecological, and socio-developmental perspectives. • Examines how organisms allocate effort over their lifetimes to maximize
fitness (contributions to future generations). • Illustrates how investment trade-offs are shaped by the environment
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Life History Theory
Energy/Resources
Somatic effort Reproductive effort
Maintenance Growth
• Integrates evolutionary, ecological, and socio-developmental perspectives. • Examines how organisms allocate effort over their lifetimes to maximize
fitness (contributions to future generations). • Illustrates how investment trade-offs are shaped by the environment
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Life History Theory
Energy/Resources
Somatic effort Reproductive effort
Maintenance Growth Parenting Mating
• Integrates evolutionary, ecological, and socio-developmental perspectives. • Examines how organisms allocate effort over their lifetimes to maximize
fitness (contributions to future generations). • Illustrates how investment trade-offs are shaped by the environment
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Life History Theory
Energy/Resources
Somatic effort Reproductive effort
Maintenance Growth Parenting Mating
Future offspring
Current offspring
• Integrates evolutionary, ecological, and socio-developmental perspectives. • Examines how organisms allocate effort over their lifetimes to maximize
fitness (contributions to future generations). • Illustrates how investment trade-offs are shaped by the environment
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Life History Theory
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Life History Theory
• LHT can be a framework for understanding variation in human birth outcomes as the product of evolved facultative adaptations interacting with modern socio-environmental conditions.
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Life History Theory
• LHT can be a framework for understanding variation in human birth outcomes as the product of evolved facultative adaptations interacting with modern socio-environmental conditions.
• Anthropologists have used LHT to predict birth outcomes in foraging populations .
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Life History Theory
• LHT can be a framework for understanding variation in human birth outcomes as the product of evolved facultative adaptations interacting with modern socio-environmental conditions.
• Anthropologists have used LHT to predict birth outcomes in foraging populations .
• The co-varying factors of prematurity and low birth weight are the primary cause of neonatal mortality in developed countries.
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Life History Theory
• LHT can be a framework for understanding variation in human birth outcomes as the product of evolved facultative adaptations interacting with modern socio-environmental conditions.
• Anthropologists have used LHT to predict birth outcomes in foraging populations .
• The co-varying factors of prematurity and low birth weight are the primary cause of neonatal mortality in developed countries.
• Mechanisms that regulate maternal somatic investment (gestational length, weight at birth) may contribute to adverse birth outcomes.
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Life History Theory
• LHT can be a framework for understanding variation in human birth outcomes as the product of evolved facultative adaptations interacting with modern socio-environmental conditions.
• Anthropologists have used LHT to predict birth outcomes in foraging populations .
• The co-varying factors of prematurity and low birth weight are the primary cause of neonatal mortality in developed countries.
• Mechanisms that regulate maternal somatic investment (gestational length, weight at birth) may contribute to adverse birth outcomes.
• Conditions suggesting high infant/child mortality risk may shift investment from current offspring to potential future offspring to increase the chance that at least some offspring will survive and reproduce.
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Candidate risk factor: Deterioration of the built environment
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Candidate risk factor: Deterioration of the built environment
• Since the 1920s, the ‘‘Chicago School’’ in Sociology emphasized the impact of neighborhood physical decay on mental health problems.
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Candidate risk factor: Deterioration of the built environment
• Since the 1920s, the ‘‘Chicago School’’ in Sociology emphasized the impact of neighborhood physical decay on mental health problems.
• The physical deterioration of the human built environment is increasingly recognized as an important influence on health.
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Candidate risk factor: Deterioration of the built environment
• Since the 1920s, the ‘‘Chicago School’’ in Sociology emphasized the impact of neighborhood physical decay on mental health problems.
• The physical deterioration of the human built environment is increasingly recognized as an important influence on health.
• Highly deteriorated neighborhoods increase fear of crime and decrease perceptions of personal safely.
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Candidate risk factor: Deterioration of the built environment
• Since the 1920s, the ‘‘Chicago School’’ in Sociology emphasized the impact of neighborhood physical decay on mental health problems.
• The physical deterioration of the human built environment is increasingly recognized as an important influence on health.
• Highly deteriorated neighborhoods increase fear of crime and decrease perceptions of personal safely.
• This could reduce maternal somatic investment , as it reflects dangerous conditions for the current offspring.
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Hypothesis
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Hypothesis Neighborhood structural deterioration will be inversely associated with maternal somatic investment
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Hypothesis Neighborhood structural deterioration will be inversely associated with maternal somatic investment
Predictions: The density of very deteriorated neighborhood structures will be directly related to the densities of premature and low birth weight births.
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Hypothesis Neighborhood structural deterioration will be inversely associated with maternal somatic investment
Predictions: The density of very deteriorated neighborhood structures will be directly related to the densities of premature and low birth weight births.
Method: We tested these predictions for births in Flint, Michigan in 2006 with geographically identified birth records from the Michigan Department of Community Health provided. The Flint Environmental Block Assessment project provided systematic data on the condition of 60,000 neighborhood structures.
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Genesee County, Michigan
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Flint, Michigan
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Flint, Michigan
• Home of General Motors Corporation, the largest employer.
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Flint, Michigan
• Home of General Motors Corporation, the largest employer. • 82K GM workers in 1970; 16K in 2006.
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Flint, Michigan
• Home of General Motors Corporation, the largest employer. • 82K GM workers in 1970; 16K in 2006. • Flint’s population declined 36.5% from 197K in 1970 to 125K in 2000.
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Flint, Michigan
• Home of General Motors Corporation, the largest employer. • 82K GM workers in 1970; 16K in 2006. • Flint’s population declined 36.5% from 197K in 1970 to 125K in 2000. • Many vacant and dilapidated properties, especially near the former
car factories.
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Method • We used Geographical Information Systems to calculate
the proportional density of outcomes in .25 mi2 areas:
o Highly deteriorated residential structures o Pre-mature (<37 weeks) singleton births o Low birth weight (<2500g) singleton births
• Extracted variance in birth outcomes accounted for by maternal education, paternal education, and private insurance status at the individual level.
• Separate analyses for Blacks and Whites
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Density of deteriorated structures
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Density of pre-mature births
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Density of low birth weight births
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Results
Correlations with density of structural deterioration
Race Pre-maturity Low birth weight
All .441*** .500***
Black .354*** .336***
White .228** .026
N = 169; ** indicates p < .01, *** indicates p < .001. Controlling for maternal education, paternal education, and private insurance status.
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Results The density of dilapidated structures was highly skewed across sectors (Skewness = 2.02, SE = 0.19). Black births were overrepresented in areas with high structural deterioration
Race Top 25% Top 5%
Black 49% 20%
White 22% 6%
Proportion of births by area level of deterioration
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Conclusion
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Conclusion • Conditions suggesting high extrinsic mortality rates predicted adverse
birth outcomes.
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Conclusion • Conditions suggesting high extrinsic mortality rates predicted adverse
birth outcomes.
• Mechanisms regulating investment trade-offs based on environmental conditions may influence adverse birth outcomes.
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Conclusion • Conditions suggesting high extrinsic mortality rates predicted adverse
birth outcomes.
• Mechanisms regulating investment trade-offs based on environmental conditions may influence adverse birth outcomes.
• Legacy from times of considerably higher mortality rates, they may not promote reproductive success in modern environments (i.e. mismatch).
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Conclusion • Conditions suggesting high extrinsic mortality rates predicted adverse
birth outcomes.
• Mechanisms regulating investment trade-offs based on environmental conditions may influence adverse birth outcomes.
• Legacy from times of considerably higher mortality rates, they may not promote reproductive success in modern environments (i.e. mismatch).
• Interventions promoting desirable birth outcomes may be more effective if they attend to relevant environmental conditions.
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Candidate risk factor 2: Low paternal investment
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Candidate risk factor 2: Low paternal investment
• Men provide considerably more paternal investment than males in most other primate species.
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Candidate risk factor 2: Low paternal investment
• Men provide considerably more paternal investment than males in most other primate species.
• Paternal investment is significantly related to offspring survival and success.
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Candidate risk factor 2: Low paternal investment
• Men provide considerably more paternal investment than males in most other primate species.
• Paternal investment is significantly related to offspring survival and success.
• Children growing up with fathers absent are at higher risk for a range of adverse outcomes.
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Hypotheses
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Hypotheses
1. Women living in areas with relatively lower levels of paternal investment will have higher rates of prematurity and low birth weight.
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Hypotheses
1. Women living in areas with relatively lower levels of paternal investment will have higher rates of prematurity and low birth weight.
2. Scarcity of men in a population will predict lower paternal investment and also higher rates of prematurity and low birth weight (directly and/or indirectly).
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
• When the sex ratio is imbalanced, the rarer sex has increased leverage in inter-sexual relationships.
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
• When the sex ratio is imbalanced, the rarer sex has increased leverage in inter-sexual relationships.
• Men compete for (long-term) partners through signals of potential long-term relationship commitment and resource provisioning.
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
• When the sex ratio is imbalanced, the rarer sex has increased leverage in inter-sexual relationships.
• Men compete for (long-term) partners through signals of potential long-term relationship commitment and resource provisioning.
• Women compete for partners through signals of fecundity and sexual availability.
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
Female scarcity: Women are more effective at securing commitment and obtaining higher investment from men.
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
Female scarcity: Women are more effective at securing commitment and obtaining higher investment from men.
•Higher male competition for signals of relationship commitment and paternal investment (Pederson, 1991).
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
Female scarcity: Women are more effective at securing commitment and obtaining higher investment from men.
•Higher male competition for signals of relationship commitment and paternal investment (Pederson, 1991). •Difficult for low SES men to get married (Pollet & Nettle, 2007).
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
Female scarcity: Women are more effective at securing commitment and obtaining higher investment from men.
•Higher male competition for signals of relationship commitment and paternal investment (Pederson, 1991). •Difficult for low SES men to get married (Pollet & Nettle, 2007). •Higher expectations for paternal care (Guttentag & Secord, 1983).
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
Female scarcity: Women are more effective at securing commitment and obtaining higher investment from men.
•Higher male competition for signals of relationship commitment and paternal investment (Pederson, 1991). •Difficult for low SES men to get married (Pollet & Nettle, 2007). •Higher expectations for paternal care (Guttentag & Secord, 1983). •Women marry at younger ages (Kruger et al., 2010).
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
Female scarcity: Women are more effective at securing commitment and obtaining higher investment from men.
•Higher male competition for signals of relationship commitment and paternal investment (Pederson, 1991). •Difficult for low SES men to get married (Pollet & Nettle, 2007). •Higher expectations for paternal care (Guttentag & Secord, 1983). •Women marry at younger ages (Kruger et al., 2010). •Promiscuity discouraged, especially for women (Guttentag & Secord, 1983).
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
Female scarcity: Women are more effective at securing commitment and obtaining higher investment from men.
•Higher male competition for signals of relationship commitment and paternal investment (Pederson, 1991). •Difficult for low SES men to get married (Pollet & Nettle, 2007). •Higher expectations for paternal care (Guttentag & Secord, 1983). •Women marry at younger ages (Kruger et al., 2010). •Promiscuity discouraged, especially for women (Guttentag & Secord, 1983). •Greater protection/guarding of women (Scott, 1970).
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
Female scarcity: Women are more effective at securing commitment and obtaining higher investment from men.
•Higher male competition for signals of relationship commitment and paternal investment (Pederson, 1991). •Difficult for low SES men to get married (Pollet & Nettle, 2007). •Higher expectations for paternal care (Guttentag & Secord, 1983). •Women marry at younger ages (Kruger et al., 2010). •Promiscuity discouraged, especially for women (Guttentag & Secord, 1983). •Greater protection/guarding of women (Scott, 1970). •Brideprice paid by husband’s family (Herlihy, 1976).
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
Male scarcity: Male mating opportunities are enhanced, incentives for long-term commitment and investment are diminished.
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
Male scarcity: Male mating opportunities are enhanced, incentives for long-term commitment and investment are diminished.
•Higher divorce rates, more out-of-wedlock births and single mother households, lower paternal investment (Guttentag & Secord, 1983; Trent & South, 1989).
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
Male scarcity: Male mating opportunities are enhanced, incentives for long-term commitment and investment are diminished.
•Higher divorce rates, more out-of-wedlock births and single mother households, lower paternal investment (Guttentag & Secord, 1983; Trent & South, 1989). •Shorter skirt lengths (Barber, 1999).
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
Male scarcity: Male mating opportunities are enhanced, incentives for long-term commitment and investment are diminished.
•Higher divorce rates, more out-of-wedlock births and single mother households, lower paternal investment (Guttentag & Secord, 1983; Trent & South, 1989). •Shorter skirt lengths (Barber, 1999). •Greater female promiscuity (Schmitt, 2005).
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
Male scarcity: Male mating opportunities are enhanced, incentives for long-term commitment and investment are diminished.
•Higher divorce rates, more out-of-wedlock births and single mother households, lower paternal investment (Guttentag & Secord, 1983; Trent & South, 1989). •Shorter skirt lengths (Barber, 1999). •Greater female promiscuity (Schmitt, 2005). •Higher rates of teenage pregnancies (Barber, 2000).
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
Male scarcity: Male mating opportunities are enhanced, incentives for long-term commitment and investment are diminished.
•Higher divorce rates, more out-of-wedlock births and single mother households, lower paternal investment (Guttentag & Secord, 1983; Trent & South, 1989). •Shorter skirt lengths (Barber, 1999). •Greater female promiscuity (Schmitt, 2005). •Higher rates of teenage pregnancies (Barber, 2000). •Women are less likely to be married (Lichter, et al., 1992).
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
Male scarcity: Male mating opportunities are enhanced, incentives for long-term commitment and investment are diminished.
•Higher divorce rates, more out-of-wedlock births and single mother households, lower paternal investment (Guttentag & Secord, 1983; Trent & South, 1989). •Shorter skirt lengths (Barber, 1999). •Greater female promiscuity (Schmitt, 2005). •Higher rates of teenage pregnancies (Barber, 2000). •Women are less likely to be married (Lichter, et al., 1992). •Women marry later (Kruger et al., 2010).
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Part II Operational Sex Ratio
Male scarcity: Male mating opportunities are enhanced, incentives for long-term commitment and investment are diminished.
•Higher divorce rates, more out-of-wedlock births and single mother households, lower paternal investment (Guttentag & Secord, 1983; Trent & South, 1989). •Shorter skirt lengths (Barber, 1999). •Greater female promiscuity (Schmitt, 2005). •Higher rates of teenage pregnancies (Barber, 2000). •Women are less likely to be married (Lichter, et al., 1992). •Women marry later (Kruger et al., 2010). •Dowries paid by bride’s family (Herlihy, 1976).
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Hypothesis Scarcity of men in a population will predict lower paternal investment and also higher rates of prematurity and low birth weight (directly and/or indirectly).
♂
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♂
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♂
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♀ ♀ ♂
♂
♂
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♂
♂
Higher incidence of low birth weight and pre-mature gestation
Lower incidence of low birth weight and pre-mature gestation
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Method
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Method • CDC birth outcome statistics for 450 counties in the year 2000
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Method • CDC birth outcome statistics for 450 counties in the year 2000 • Sex Ratio (ages 18-64) calculated from the 2000 U.S. Census.
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Method • CDC birth outcome statistics for 450 counties in the year 2000 • Sex Ratio (ages 18-64) calculated from the 2000 U.S. Census. • We predicted the proportions of low birthweight births >2500g)
and premature gestation (Prop <37 weeks).
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Method • CDC birth outcome statistics for 450 counties in the year 2000 • Sex Ratio (ages 18-64) calculated from the 2000 U.S. Census. • We predicted the proportions of low birthweight births >2500g)
and premature gestation (Prop <37 weeks). o Sex Ratio
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Method • CDC birth outcome statistics for 450 counties in the year 2000 • Sex Ratio (ages 18-64) calculated from the 2000 U.S. Census. • We predicted the proportions of low birthweight births >2500g)
and premature gestation (Prop <37 weeks). o Sex Ratio o % of families with children that are single mother households
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Method • CDC birth outcome statistics for 450 counties in the year 2000 • Sex Ratio (ages 18-64) calculated from the 2000 U.S. Census. • We predicted the proportions of low birthweight births >2500g)
and premature gestation (Prop <37 weeks). o Sex Ratio o % of families with children that are single mother households o % Non-White
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Method • CDC birth outcome statistics for 450 counties in the year 2000 • Sex Ratio (ages 18-64) calculated from the 2000 U.S. Census. • We predicted the proportions of low birthweight births >2500g)
and premature gestation (Prop <37 weeks). o Sex Ratio o % of families with children that are single mother households o % Non-White o SES:
• % Income below poverty level • Median household income • % High School graduates (25 years old and older) • % 4-year College graduates (25 years old and older)
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Results
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Results
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Male Scarcity
Low Birth Weight
Prematurity
Non-White
Single Mothers
χ2(5) = 27.80, p < .001, GFI = .980, NFI = .981, CFI = .985, RMSEA = .101
.36**
.59**
.12*
.53**
-.38** -.32 SES
.32**
.07*
.49**
*p < .01, **p < .001
Results Standardized regression coefficients
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Male Scarcity
Low Birth Weight
Prematurity
Non-White
Single Mothers
.36**
.59**
.12*
.53**
-.38** -.32 SES
.32**
.07*
.49**
*p < .01, **p < .001
Results Standardized regression coefficients
χ2(5) = 27.80, p < .001, GFI = .980, NFI = .981, CFI = .985, RMSEA = .101
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Male Scarcity
Low Birth Weight
Prematurity
Non-White
Single Mothers
.36**
.59**
.12*
.53**
-.38** -.32 SES
.32**
.07*
.49**
*p < .01, **p < .001
Results Standardized regression coefficients
χ2(5) = 27.80, p < .001, GFI = .980, NFI = .981, CFI = .985, RMSEA = .101
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Male Scarcity
Low Birth Weight
Prematurity
Non-White
Single Mothers
.36**
.59**
.12*
.53**
-.38** -.32 SES
.32**
.07*
.49**
*p < .01, **p < .001
Results Standardized regression coefficients
χ2(5) = 27.80, p < .001, GFI = .980, NFI = .981, CFI = .985, RMSEA = .101
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Results Proportion Premature Gestation
Predictor B SE β t p Constant .121 .014 --- 8.73 .001 % Single moms .127 .001 .44 7.26 .001 % Non-White .022 .006 .17 3.50 .001 OSR Ages 18-64 .000 .000 .14 3.88 .001 SES .000 .000 -.26 3.70 .151
Adjusted R2 = .425
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Results Proportion Low Birth Weight
Predictor B SE β t p Constant .067 .009 --- 7.39 .001 % Single moms .153 .011 .69 13.32 .001 OSR Ages 18-64 .000 .000 .13 3.64 .001 % Non-White .012 .004 .12 2.83 .005 SES .000 .000 .09 2.47 .014
Adjusted R2 = .592
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Results
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Results
• The proportion of families that are single mother households is the strongest predictor of prematurity and low birth weight.
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Results
• The proportion of families that are single mother households is the strongest predictor of prematurity and low birth weight.
• The sex ratio predicts single mother households independently of traditional SES indicators and proportion Non-White (mediated effect).
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Results
• The proportion of families that are single mother households is the strongest predictor of prematurity and low birth weight.
• The sex ratio predicts single mother households independently of traditional SES indicators and proportion Non-White (mediated effect).
• The sex ratio predicts prematurity and low birth weight independently of single mother households (direct effect).
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Conclusion
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Conclusion • Conditions suggesting relatively lower levels of paternal investment
rates predicted adverse birth outcomes.
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Conclusion • Conditions suggesting relatively lower levels of paternal investment
rates predicted adverse birth outcomes.
• Interventions promoting desirable birth outcomes may be more effective if they attend to fatherhood and paternal support.
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Conclusion • Conditions suggesting relatively lower levels of paternal investment
rates predicted adverse birth outcomes.
• Interventions promoting desirable birth outcomes may be more effective if they attend to fatherhood and paternal support.
• Life History Theory is a powerful framework for understanding variation in adverse birth outcomes.
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Conclusion • Conditions suggesting relatively lower levels of paternal investment
rates predicted adverse birth outcomes.
• Interventions promoting desirable birth outcomes may be more effective if they attend to fatherhood and paternal support.
• Life History Theory is a powerful framework for understanding variation in adverse birth outcomes.
Energy/Resources
Somatic effort Reproductive effort
Maintenance Growth Parenting Mating
Future offspring
Current offspring
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Conclusion • Conditions suggesting relatively lower levels of paternal investment
rates predicted adverse birth outcomes.
• Interventions promoting desirable birth outcomes may be more effective if they attend to fatherhood and paternal support.
• Life History Theory is a powerful framework for understanding variation in adverse birth outcomes.
Energy/Resources
Somatic effort
Maintenance Growth Parenting
Current offspring