how investment was attracted for the benefit of the citizentv2 kallpa 32 32 73 187 187 43 220 187...
TRANSCRIPT
How investment was
attracted for the
benefit of the citizen
Iquitos-Perú, March 4th 2008
Ignacio BlancoCEO - Endesa Perú
Gas Fired Power
Generation in Perú
Peru, an economy in continuous growth (77 months already)
Source: INEI
GD
P (
Var
%)
Dic07
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jul01 Jan02 Jul02 Jan03 Jul03 Jan04 Jul04 Jan05 Jul05 Jan06 Jul06 Jan07 Jul07
0,2
5,0
4,0
5,1
6,7
7,6
9,0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Regulated market
Free market
Electrical Energy
(GWh)
Source: OSINERGMIN
Annual
Growth (%)
and high growth rates in electrical demand…
4.000
8.000
12.000
16.000
20.000
24.000
4.000
8.000
12.000
16.000
20.000
24.000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007e
4.000
8.000
12.000
16.000
20.000
24.000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007e20022001 20042003 20062005 2007e
10,9 %
Source: MEM
0 % increase in 5 years
Installed capacity … 3 years ago
Total Hidráulica Térmica
5.907 5.936 5.970 6.0166.066
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
No increase in several years
Tension on the spot market
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Nov-0
1
May-0
2
Nov-0
2
May-0
3
Nov-0
3
May-0
4
Nov-0
4
May-0
5
Nov-0
5
May-0
6
Nov-0
6
May-0
7
Nov-0
7
CMg TARIFA EN BARRA CMg MEDIA MOVIL 12 MESES
US
$ / M
Wh
A change in regulation framework was needed :
Second generation reforms
Working
GroupCongress
Regulator
Government
Investors
Technical
Independent from politics
•Short term reforms of law 25844
•Law 28832 - Law to assure te efficient development of electrical generation & transmission
Results
Law 28832 - Law to assure te efficient development of
generation and transmission.
Promulgated on July 2006 (just before general elections).
Generation wholesale price: from administrative calculated to market determined price.
Development of Transmission: Remuneration of Investment guaranteed by means of public auctions.
Dialogue and consensus Market Solutions
Considering development time from greenfield
Camisea Project was the answer
Abundant reserves
Not expensive
Hydro 5 to 7 years
Coal
Gas
4 to 5 years
1 to 2 years
Speed appears as a new issue
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Sales Annual Growth (%)
Installed Capacity Growth (%)
Base : 2001=100
Another change was needed to assure supply
Original scheme Final scheme
Electroperú – State owned utility to take or pay for the gas
Electroperu was to pay for a gas without facilities to use it
With no real customer the project was in danger
Endesa’a Ventanilla Power Plant will pay and burn the gas
First Combined Cicle Power Plant in Perú was ianugurated by President Alan García in Nov 2006
Installed capacity restarted to increase
Dialogue and consensus
Goverment to pass through Electroperu rights and duties to a real consumer
Source: MEM
0 % increase in 5 years
Investment in generation restarted to grow
5.907 5.936 5.970 6.016 6.2016.658
7.059 7.1237.684
6.066
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008e 2009e
r+17 %
r+28 %
Installed Power
MW
• Key consumer to assure financial closing of Camisea Project.
CCGT Ventanilla (Endesa)
100%
80%
62% 60%
2004 2005 2006 2007
Consumption ( Ventanilla ) vs
Production ( Camisea )
Other generation investment came back …
TV Ventanilla TG3
TV Ventanilla TG4
TG Chilca 1
Endesa - Edegel
Endesa - Edegel
Endesa - Edegel
Suez - Enersur
CH Yuncán
CH Santa Rosa 1
CH Callahuanca
TG UTI (conversion to gas)
TG Chilca 2
TG Kallpa 1
137
1
5
89
89
176
175
177
Ene-05
Ago-05
Ene-06
Feb-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Dic-06
Jul-07
Jul-07
Start date Group - Company
Suez - nersur
Globeleq - Kallpa
Endesa - Edegel
Suez - Enersur
Endesa - Edegel
(Santa Rosa )
Endesa - Edegel
StationPower
(MW)
Additional
Power (MW)
TG Westinghouse (conversion to gas)
137
1
5
177
89
89
176
175
… and other will come
CT Malacas (replacement 2 units)
CH Platanal
CA Nuevo Santa Rosa
Globeleq - Kallpa
Endesa - Eepsa
CELEPSA
Endesa - Edegel
CA TG2 Sudamericana
CT Mollendo (conversion to gas)
CA TG3 Chilca
CA TG2 Kallpa
TG Kallpa
TV2 Kallpa
32
32
73
187
187
43
220
187
187
88
Sep-08
Dic-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Dic-09
Dic-10
Dic-11
Start date Group - Company
Globeleq - Kallpa
Globeleq - Kallpa
Sudameric. Fibras
Sudameric. Fibras
Estado - Electroperu
Suez - Enersur
StationPower
(MW)
Additional
Power (MW)
32CA TG1 Sudamericana
32
0
187
187
88
0
220
187
104
235
324
394
480509
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007e
Dialogue and consensus was the key …
MMUS$
r+ 117 %
Source: MEM
… to increase investment
Quality is increasing
8,2
10,7
7,67,4
7,67,2
8,5
7,7
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
TIC
TIC : Interruption hours per year
equivalent to 99,9 % of continuous service
Source: Edelnor
Cu – Al : Price evolution
+129 %
Source: London Metal Bulletin
Base : 2004
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2004 2005 2006 2007
+41%
Aluminiun Price in real termes
US$ / tmf
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2004 2005 2006 2007
Copper Price in real termes
US$ / tmf
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Source: Edelnor
Thanks to investment, in spite of major costs, tariff went down as the quality increased
- 33%
Tariff evolution in real terms
Enormous effort of efficiency from utilities has allowed to improve quality
while diminishing electricity prices.
Copper, Steel and Oil have risen in the last years without reflecting in the
electrical tariffs.
Years
US$/MWh
…International groups arrived to Perú
Hydrocarbons and Gas Electrical Industry
… to invest in the electrical sector (Distribution,
Generation and Transmission) in the next 10 years.
Generation 3 979
Transmission 828
Distribution 1 316
Total 6 123
Gap of investment( MMUS$ )
Peru needs approximately MMUS$ 6.100 …
Without Investment ...
... there is not development
