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making technology happen
How do you know what to design in
the first place?
Grant King 1 Nov 2016
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Making technology happen Friday, 01 December 2017 2
Introduction
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Making technology happen Friday, 01 December 2017 3
Visions of the future?
Everything is clear in hindsight
but less obvious when trying to
imagine the future
Henry Ford got it right but
perhaps the exception rather
than the rule…
Important to know the difference
between what you know and
what you think
“If you asked people what they wanted
they would have said faster horses. “
– Henry Ford
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What is design anyway?
Philippe Starck
Juicer
£50 – £950 (Limited Edition)
Supermarket
Juicer
£3.50 Angel Juicer AG-20K
£9,750
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Where do product ideas come from?
A product that transforms an existing
business
- One stop street photography
- Game changing business idea
- Limited technical skills
- Few barriers to entry
- Bigger company can create more
complete product
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Where do product ideas come from for
products of the future?
“If you asked people what they wanted
they would have said faster horses. “
– Henry Ford
They come from a vision of the
future
Henry Ford got it right… “I think there is a world market for
about 5 computers.”
– Thomas J Watson, IBM
“640K ought to be enough for
anyone.”
– Bill Gates, Microsoft
“There is no reason for any individual
to have a computer in his home.”
– Ken Olsen, DEC
But other successful business
leaders have got it badly wrong
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Let’s look at a specific example…
The Apple Newton
• First “PDA”
• Hand held computing
• User Interface
• Moderately successful
• Estimated number of units
200K total sales
An incomplete product missing
some vital ingredients
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Smartphone
Compact Digital
Traditional Film
Let’s look at how the environment
was changing…
Cameras Produced
(millions)
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
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Smartphone
Compact Digital
Traditional Film
Let’s look at how the environment
was changing…
Cameras Produced
(millions)
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Making technology happen Friday, 01 December 2017 10
Smartphone
Compact Digital
Traditional Film
Let’s look at how the environment
was changing…
Cameras Produced
(millions)
11
Making technology happen Friday, 01 December 2017 11
Smartphone
Compact Digital
Traditional Film
Let’s look at how the environment
was changing…
Cameras Produced
(millions)
12
Making technology happen Friday, 01 December 2017 12
Smartphone
Compact Digital
Traditional Film
Let’s look at how the environment
was changing…
Cameras Produced
(millions)
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Making technology happen Friday, 01 December 2017 13
Smartphone
Compact Digital
Traditional Film
Let’s look at how the environment
was changing…
1,200
Cameras Produced
(millions)
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Making technology happen Friday, 01 December 2017 14
2013
Pope
announced
in
St. Peter’s
Square
2005
Pope
announced
in
St. Peter’s
Square
What effect did phone cameras have?
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What happens when you get it right…
Lets look at what happens when
you fill in the missing ingredients
and create a more complete
product
Not the best phone
Not the best PDA
Not the best camera
But arguably the most complete
product
Pre-orders top 2 million in first 24
hours
First weekend sales top 9 million
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Some design learnings…
• Need to have a vision of the future
• Need to understand your market and what type of product you need
• Need to understand the type of design required
• Need to understand the business plan
– Long or short term
– Barrier to entry
– Hi or low tech
• Need to engage with the market
• Safer to advance in stages
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Contact