Annie Petsonk, International Counsel, September 2014

How Capping Aviation’s Carbon Pollution Can Help Give Wings to Broader Climate Goals

~ 30,000 new large aircraft by 2032

Aviation: 2% of global CO2 emissions today, but forecasted to quadruple in coming years

OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS: International Civil Aviation Organization

…with a 2016 deadline for a single global MBM

“Four pillars” on emissions: - technology- operations- alt. fuels- market-based measure (MBM)

Industry’s view Source: IATA

MBM: The Players

ICAO Industry ICAO ICSA

-193 countries-Montreal HQ-36-state Council-17-state EAG- CAEP- Steering

Group - GMTF - MRV - Units - AFTF

-IATA: 85% int’l air travel -Geneva/Montreal HQ -Nat’l/regional groups-Manufacturers (Boeing, Airbus, GE, UTC, etc.)-Airports, air navigation-Business jetsOverall: a powerful, well-financed lobby that sees it must address GHG emissions

-EDF a co-founder-T&E-AEF(UK)-GermanWatch-CarbonMarketWatch-NRDC-WWF-ICCT

Others (IETA, VCS, UNFCCC, etc.)

USEPA Endangerment Finding, CO2

standard (litigation brought by EJ,

CBD

Industry’s goals

Industry’s analysis

Source: IATA

The Challenges

• Develop policy options that: – Address Common but Differential growth in

regional air traffic post-2020,

– By ensuring that participating jurisdictions can offer high-quality emissions units, encourage broad engagement,

– minimize overall compliance costs.

• While UNFCCC moves toward Paris 2015, maintain momentum in ICAO toward 2016

Carbon Markets & Aviation

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…to build a winning coalition in ICAO

NOTE: Central traffic growth scenario; international emission reductions target: 50% emissions cut by 2050; no auction; upper and lower estimates for case 1 and 2 depend on in-sector abatement. Lower (green) bars; airlines may start purchasing emissions units today, before other sectors. Upper (blue) bars: airlines wait until after 2020 to purchase emissions units and face maximum competition. Source: EDF analysis.

If airlines move early, CNG2020 would add $1.5-$2.5 to CDG-JFK ticket in 2030, but if they wait, the cost goes up

Parallel Market (CASE 1)

Integrated Market (CASE 2)

2030

2014• CAEP / CAEP SG /

GMTF meets 3-4 times, finalizes recommendations on MRV, emissions units

• EAG meets regularly in Montreal, finalizes MBM options based on "straw man" proposal

2015• CAEP GMTF

analyzes costs of options

• CAEP AFTF analyzes LCA of biofuels

• EAG/Council recommend a particular option

• UNFCCC Paris COP

2016• Awareness-raising

in key countries• Recommended

option presented to Council, regional groups

• Assembly decision on adoption of ICAO MBM via a set of operator standards

Photo: www.momscleanairforce.org

� !Gracias! Obligado! Thank you! شكرًا

For more information, please contact:Annie Petsonk, apetsonk@edf.org +1-202-365-3237