how can india create many more jobs?
DESCRIPTION
Harnessing the energy of India's growing youth population, requires the generation of Many More Jobs! Complex issues make this a big challenge, but the right AskHOW questions can generate solutions.TRANSCRIPT
HOW can India create Many More JOBS?
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The Analysis
The Analysis
MANY MORE JOBS
Source: Bureau of Population Projections for India & states 2001-2026, Census of India
Many More Jobs are important because…!The population of India is growing, so is the number of youth!!
In 2011 1192 million!!
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In 2021 1339 million!
So we need Many More Jobs to harness the energy of the youth!!Else their will be pent up dissatisfaction and possible social unrest.
346 747 98
336 859 143
< 15yrs 15-60 yrs 60 yrs+
The Analysis
MANY MORE JOBS
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, US; http://www.bls.gov/fls/chartbook/2012/section2.pdf
But out of every 100 employable age people …!!
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In India!!
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In China
Indians are not even seeking jobs, and hence the AskHOW question …!
HOW can we get more people motivated to join the Workforce? !In technical terms, How do we improve Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR)?
Unemployed Not looking for Employment!Employed
53% 3% 43%
71% 3% 26%
The Analysis
MANY MORE JOBS
Source: Census of India; Report of the Working Group on Employment, Planning & Policy for the 12th Five Year Plan, Planning Commission
With a growing Young Population, the number of New Jobs to be created…!
Hence the AskHOW questions …!
HOW can India create 102 million jobs by 2021? !And can India aspire to create 308 million jobs to match China by 2021?
2001 2006 2011 2021 2021
Total Population (millions) 1028 1112 1210 1340 1340
Labour Force (millions) 433 478 484 at 43%LFPR 576 at 71%LFPR 782
Current Employment (millions) 403 467 474
576 - 474 = 782 - 474 =
New Jobs to be created to match usual past of India: 102 to match China: 308
The Analysis
MANY MORE JOBS
Source: Report of the Working Group on Employment, Planning & Policy for the 12th Five Year Plan, Planning Commission
The Job Growth Track record!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Job growth could have been much better in the period from 2005: 0.12%!
AGRI MFG CONSTR TRADE Others TOTAL
2000 238 44 18 37 60 3972005 259 56 26 43 73 4572010 243 49 52 42 74 460
2000: 397 million jobs
2005: 457 million jobs
2010: 460 million jobs
Agriculture!graphed on a different scale
The Analysis
MANY MORE JOBSObservations from the past Track Record numbers…!!
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The AskHOW question …!
How can we generate jobs in Manufacturing, Construction and Exportable Services?
Agriculture, the largest employment sector, unlikely to produce any incremental jobs; recent trends suggest contraction.
Bulk of employment challenge must be met via primary sectors such as Manufacturing, Construction, and Exportable Services such
as IT / ITES and Tourism
Economic activity & Employment in services sectors such as trade and transportation depends on growth in primary sectors, so cannot be mainstay of employment creation.
The Analysis
MANY MORE JOBSSuggestions from the Planning Commission …
2013 Agri Mining Mfg Utilities Constr Trade Transport Oth Svcs 2017
0 10
027
9
9
14
-6
498
553
Assuming a 8% GDP growth, the Planning Commission estimates that ~55 million jobs could get created between 2013-2017. Manufacturing would account for 50% of this increase; Construction, Trade and Transportation would be other major drivers.!
Source: Report of the Working Group on Employment, Planning & Policy for the 12th Five Year Plan, Planning Commission
The Analysis
MANY MORE JOBSChallenges for creating Jobs in Manufacturing
How can we increase investments in labor intensive manufacturing?
How can industry get enough land quickly?
How can youth be trained to work in these industries?
The Analysis
MANY MORE JOBSOne Big Challenge !Low Informal Sector Productivity
Source: India’s Employment Challenge, World Bank, 2010!OECD’s What is Holding Back Productivity Growth in India? Recent Microevidence
While the Informal Sector accounts !for almost 90% of employment, !!!!!!
a worker in the Formal Sector has !10 times the output as compared to !
a worker in the Informal Sector!
10%
90%
The Analysis
MANY MORE JOBS
Source: Economic Survey 2012-13
Analysing Productivity!Out of every 100 people employed in India ! 9 are employed in the Formal sector
The Analysis
MANY MORE JOBS
Source: Economic Survey 2012-13
Analysing Productivity!While 91 people are employed in the Informal sector ! Agriculture: 50 Unregd Manufacturing: 9! Construction: 10 Others: 22
The Analysis
MANY MORE JOBS
If 100 units is the average contribution of everyone,!the contribution by each person from the industries in the Formal Sector is…
Source: Economic Survey 2012-13
NOTE: The Square size is proportional to the units of contribution
The Analysis
MANY MORE JOBS
And this is the contribution by each person from the industries in the Informal Sector…
NOTE: The Square size is proportional to the units of contribution
Source: Economic Survey 2012-13
5. FORMAL SECTOR a. FIRE = Finance, insurance and real estate, 723 b. PU = Public utilities, 632 c. REGMFG = Registered manufacturing, 395 d. MIN = Mining and quarrying, 339 e. GOV = Government services, 266
4. OTHERS a. TSC = Transport, storage and communications, 208 b. WRT = Wholesale & retail trade and hospitality, 140 c. CSP = Community, social and personal services, 112
1. AGRI = Agriculture & Allied Services, 29 2. UNREG = Unregistered manufacturing, 58 3. CONST = Construction, 81
The Analysis
MANY MORE JOBS
And, hence the AskHOW questions …!
HOW can we move people up the Job ladder, to contribute more value? !!
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How can Sectors at the bottom of the ladder, create and make more value?Unregistered !Manufacturing
Agriculture & Allied!Services
The Analysis
MANY MORE JOBS
A great High Productivity, Job Creation example !
IT / BPO Services
Source: NASSCOM’s IT Industry Factsheet
The Analysis
MANY MORE JOBS
IT / BPO Services, !What did we do right?
Overall, the IT / BPO sector demonstrates the economic potential of market forces and entrepreneurial enterprise, given an unshackled environment. !The resulting dividends for the country are employment, export activity, etc.
1. Skilled Manpower availability from govt and private technical institutes
2. Wage arbitrage and low competition, during formative years
3. Largely independent of India’s notoriously poor infrastructure
5. Primarily driven by the harnessing of Entrepreneurial enterprise
4. Government support: Tax holidays and minimal regulation
IN CONCLUSION!
Please Ask your Lok Sabha candidate
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ore A
skHow
Analys
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ase se
arch !
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How can we increase investments in labor
intensive manufacturing?How can training and higher education be provided to youth?
How can labour and wage laws be
simplified?
How can we create !more jobs in higher productivity sectors?