September 2014 ©2014, Greater Houston Partnership Page 1

A publication of the Greater Houston Partnership Volume 23, Number 9 September 2014

Growth Accelerates — The Houston metro area created 112,200 jobs in the 12 months

ending July ’14, a 4.0 percent annual growth rate.1 That performance is the seventh larg-

est 12-month gain in 25 years. The 4.0 percent also represents acceleration in job growth,

which had slowed considerably last December before picking up again this spring.

As strong as 4.0 percent is, that doesn’t represent a record. Over the past quarter-century,

Houston has experienced faster growth spurts in ’97 –’98, ’06–’07, and ’12–’13. The mod-

ern record was set in late ’97 through mid-’98, when employment grew at an annual rate of

5.0 percent or better, an exceptional pace at a time when oil traded for less than $20 a bar-

rel and natural gas for less than $2.50 per million Btu.

Houston once again leads the nation’s major metros in job growth, ahead of Dallas-Ft.

Worth (3.9 percent) and Miami (3.3 percent). Twenty-three metros reported higher per-

centage growth, but those are much smaller economies.

1 Metro Houston includes Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, San Jacinto and Waller

counties.

4.0 3.9

3.33.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6

2.22.1

1.8 1.8 1.7

1.21.1 0.9

0.6

% Change in Employment, 20 Most Populous Metros,July '13 - July '14

September 2014 ©2014, Greater Houston Partnership Page 2

Since the bottom of the recession (January ’10),

the region has created 420,000 jobs. One met-

ro―New York―has created more jobs, but no

major metro area has added larger share of jobs

to its employment base.

Houston has enjoyed month-to-month job

growth in 50 of the past 60 months. The hand-

ful of months with job losses were either Janu-

ary or July, the losses in those months due to

predictable seasonal factors. Houston always

reports job losses in January, as retailers lay off

workers hired temporarily for the holiday

shopping season, and almost always in July, as

educators with 10-month contracts are tempo-

rarily removed from the employment estimates.

The Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) fac-

tors these predictable events into a “seasonally

adjusted” employment number that provides a

more accurate picture of employment condi-

tions.2 According to TWC, on a seasonally ad-

justed basis Houston has added jobs in 53 of

the past 60 months, with February ’11 being

the most recent month in which the region lost

jobs. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the re-

gion has created 106,700 jobs in the past 12 months.

July’s employment gains helped Houston pass a milestone. The region has created more

than 700,000 jobs since January ’00. Only the New York metro area has created more. To

put that in perspective, Houston’s job creation this century exceeds the total employment

of all but 38 U.S. metro areas. That’s the equivalent of taking every current job in Salt

Lake City and dropping them into Houston.

Unlike a year ago, when several sectors still struggled to create jobs, every sector in Hou-

ston grew over the past 12 months.

Sectors creating the most jobs: professional, scientific, and technical services (18,900

jobs), health care and social assistance (15,100 jobs) and accommodation and food

services (12,400 jobs).

2 TWC reports seasonally adjusted data only for total employment. Seasonally adjusted data for individual industries are not available,

so to evaluate industry trends, economists must examine the unadjusted data.

JOB GROWTH―MOST POPULOUS METROS January ’10 – July ’14

Metro Jobs

Added %

Change

New York 758,100 9.3

Houston 420,000 17.0

Los Angeles 419,800 8.1

Dallas-Fort Worth 403,500 14.4

Chicago 362,100 8.7

San Francisco 267,800 14.1

Atlanta 230,800 10.

Boston 215,900 9.0

Seattle 209,200 12.8

Washington 205,000 7.1

Miami 199,100 9.1

Minneapolis 180,100 10.9

Detroit 168,900 10.0

Phoenix 132,700 7.9

San Diego 131,200 10.8

Baltimore 119,300 9.6

Philadelphia 114,600 4.3

Riverside 106,100 9.3

Tampa 95,600 8.8

St. Louis 66,000 5.2

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

September 2014 ©2014, Greater Houston Partnership Page 3

Subsectors with the fastest annual growth rates: building construction (13.6 percent),

engineering services (13.2 percent), and oil field services (9.2 percent).

High oil prices are supporting employment growth in exploration, oil field services, and

oil field equipment manufacturing. Expansion of chemical plants along the Texas Gulf

Coast now drives growth in construction, metal fabrication and energy services. Popula-

tion growth (fed by employment growth) is creating more retail, health care, restaurant,

building construction and local education jobs. Expansion of international trade is push-

ing growth in transportation and, to a lesser extent, wholesale trade.

July’s unemployment rate stood at 5.5 percent, a rate that might be the natural rate of un-

employment at the national level, and is probably close to the natural rate for Houston.3

Local unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted, but the 5.5 percent is in the neigh-

borhood of July unemployment rates for ’05 through ’08, periods when Houston had a

healthy economy. Now that school has resumed and educators and students are back in

the classroom (and the educators no longer defined as unemployed), Houston may see

even lower unemployment rates. If the unemployment rate continues to fall, local em-

ployers will find it harder to fill open positions, putting additional upward pressure on lo-

cal wages.

At the current rate of growth, Houston should sur-

pass 2.9 million jobs in September, and if the econ-

omy continues along its current expansion path,

Houston should hit a milestone this time next year

and surpass 3.0 million jobs.

Another First Place Finish — In ’13, Houston led

the nation in exports for the second consecutive

year, according to data recently released by the

U.S. International Trade Administration. The re-

gion shipped nearly $115.0 billion in goods over-

seas, up 4.2 percent from $110.3 billion in ’12,

slightly ahead of New York and well ahead of Los

Angeles.

Over the past 10 years, Houston’s exports have

grown by more than $73 billion, the largest gain of

any U.S. metro area. Over that period, Houston has

risen from third to first place among the nation’s

exporting metros.

3 Economists define the natural rate of unemployment as the lowest level of unemployment at which inflation remains stable. This is

also sometimes referred to as the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or NAIRU.

METRO EXPORTS – ’13

Metro Area $ Billions %

’13–’12 Houston 114.963 4.2 New York 106.923 4.5 Los Angeles 76.306 1.7 Seattle 56.686 12.7 Detroit 53.906 -2.7 Chicago 44.911 10.7 Miami 41.772 -12.7 New Orleans 30.031 23.3 Dallas-Ft. Worth 27.596 -0.8 San Francisco 25.305 9.9 Philadelphia 24.929 8.4 Minneapolis 23.747 -5.6 San Jose 23.413 -12.3 Boston 22.213 4.6 Cincinnati 20.976 5.1 San Antonio 19.288 37.7 Atlanta 18.828 3.6 San Diego 17.886 4.1 Portland 17.607 -13.4 Washington 16.225 11.1

Source: U.S. International Trade Administration

September 2014 ©2014, Greater Houston Partnership Page 4

ITA’s export data differ somewhat from the Houston-Galveston Customs District data of-

ten cited in local publications. Customs district data reflect cargo that passes through the

region’s ports. ITA data are an “origin of movement” series and reflect the metro from

which cargo began its overseas journey. This includes goods manufactured locally

shipped out of Houston, goods manufactured locally that leave the U.S. from a port out-

side the Houston metro area, and goods produced elsewhere and consolidated in Houston

for export.

The ITA reports the primary goods exported from Houston include petroleum and coal

products, chemicals, nonelectrical machinery, computers and a category ITA defines as

“oil and gas extraction.” The primary destinations for Houston’s exports: Brazil, Canada,

China, Colombia, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea and Venezuela.

Where’s Everyone Coming From? —Given the number of out-of-state license plates on

the freeways these days, one would assume all the newcomers are from outside the Lone

Star State. But that’s not the case. According to GHP’s analysis of recently released Census

Bureau data, Texas accounts for the largest share of new residents to the region, followed

by California, Louisiana, Florida and New York. Most of the Texas residents come from

counties associated with large urban areas or college towns.

The data come from the Ameri-

can Community Survey (ACS),

the bureau’s on-going census of

the U.S. population. The bureau

analyzed responses the ACS from

’08 to ’12 to measure domestic

migration patterns, including

those who migrate out of as well

as into each county. Two points to

be aware of: (1) the data represent

an estimate, not an actual count,

and (2) since the Bureau included

responses gathered during the re-

cession, it may underrepresent in-

migration from some states. Given those caveats, the patterns in the most recent data don’t

vary significantly from GHP’s analysis of previous data sets.

Top Ten Sources of New Houston-Area Residents - 2013 By U.S. State Residents

By Texas County Residents

Texas 73,221 Travis 5,862

California 14,046 Dallas 5,604

Louisiana 11,213 Bexar 4,781

Florida 8,699 Jefferson 4,178

New York 4,457 Brazos 3,978

Illinois 4,403 Tarrant 3,446

North Carolina 4,121 Walker 2,403

Oklahoma 3,687 Hidalgo 2,211

Georgia 3,569 Bell 1,939

Virginia 3,187 Cameron 1,782

Source: 2008-12 American Community Survey Estimates

September 2014 ©2014, Greater Houston Partnership Page 5

SNAPSHOT — HOUSTON’S KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Building Permits — Construction permitting in the City of Houston hit another record in

July. The running 12-month total reached nearly $7.6 billion, the fifth consecutive rec-

ord-setting month. The $7.6 billion represents a 30.5 percent increase from $5.8 billion

in permits issued over the 12-months ending July ’13.

Inflation — The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) grew 2.0 per-

cent nationwide from July ’13 to July ’14. Core inflation rose 1.9 percent over that peri-

od. The energy index increased 2.6 percent, food prices grew 2.5 percent, and the cost of

housing rose 2.7 percent.

Home Sales — Houston-area realtors sold 89,666 homes in the 12 months ending July

’14, a 7.1 percent increase over the 83,746 homes sold in the comparable period in ’13,

according to data released today by the Houston Association of REALTORS® (HAR).

The running total for units sold has hovered around 89,600 units for the past five months,

suggesting sales may be reaching a plateau.

Purchasing Managers Index — The Houston Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a

short-term leading indicator for regional production, registered 56.4 in July, up from 52.4

in June, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management-Houston

(ISM-Houston). The PMI is based on eight components: Sales/New Orders, Production,

Employment, Purchases, Prices Paid, Lead Times, Purchased Inventory and Finished

Goods Inventory.

Vehicle Sales — Houston-area auto dealers sold 371,406 vehicles in the 12 months end-

ing July ’14, according to TexAuto Facts, published by InfoNation, Inc. of Sugar Land.

This is the first month-to-month decline in the 12-month total of vehicle sales after five

consecutive months of increases. July was a slower month for Houston area auto dealers,

selling 30,527 vehicles in July ’14, down 13.1 percent from 35,133 in July ’13.

Foreign Trade — In the first seven months of this year, more than $150.9 billion in for-

eign trade passed through the Houston-Galveston Customs District, up 5.1 percent from

the $143.5 billion in trade handled in the first seven months of ’13. Exports totaled $77.7

billion, up 9.4 percent from the $71.0 billion handled during the same period in ’13. Im-

ports totaled $73.2 billion, up 1.0 percent from the $72.5 billion handled over the same

period in ’13.

Patrick Jankowski and Jenny Philip

contributed to this issue of

Houston: The Economy at a Glance

September 2014 ©2014, Greater Houston Partnership Page 6

STAY UP TO DATE!

To access past issues of Economy at a Glance, please click here.

If you are a nonmember and would like to receive this electronic publication, please email your

request for Economy at a Glance to echambers@houston.org. Include your name, tit le and phone

number and your company’s name and address. For information about joining the Greater Houston

Partnership, call Member Services at 713-844-3683.

The Key Economic Indicators table is updated whenever any data

change — typically, 11 or so times per month. If you would like to

receive these updates by e-mail, usually accompanied by commentary,

please email your request for Key Economic Indicators to

echambers@houston.org w ith the same identifying information. You

may request Glance and Indicators in the same email.

Follow me on Twitter @PNJankowski

Subscribe to my blog The Glass Half Full

also posted at www.houston.org/economy

HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE

September 2014 ©2014, Greater Houston Partnership Page 7

HOUSTON MSA NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (000) Change from % Change from

July '14 June '14 July '13 June '14 July '13 June '14 July '13

Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs 2,895.7 2,895.3 2,783.5 0.4 112.2 0.0 4.0

Total Private 2,533.5 2,516.8 2,430.9 16.7 102.6 0.7 4.2

Goods Producing 575.3 571.7 550.0 3.6 25.3 0.6 4.6

Service Providing 2,320.4 2,323.6 2,233.5 -3.2 86.9 -0.1 3.9

Private Service Providing 1,958.2 1,945.1 1,880.9 13.1 77.3 0.7 4.1

Mining and Logging 116.4 114.6 108.5 1.8 7.9 1.6 7.3

Oil & Gas Extraction 63.0 62.4 59.4 0.6 3.6 1.0 6.1

Support Activities for Mining 52.4 50.7 48.0 1.7 4.4 3.4 9.2

Construction 197.9 196.6 189.0 1.3 8.9 0.7 4.7

Manufacturing 261.0 260.5 252.5 0.5 8.5 0.2 3.4

Durable Goods Manufacturing 174.5 174.1 172.0 0.4 2.5 0.2 1.5

Nondurable Goods Manufacturing 86.5 86.4 80.5 0.1 6.0 0.1 7.5

Wholesale Trade 157.1 157.8 151.3 -0.7 5.8 -0.4 3.8

Retail Trade 288.7 287.8 284.1 0.9 4.6 0.3 1.6

Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities 139.1 137.5 131.0 1.6 8.1 1.2 6.2

Utilities 16.8 16.5 16.2 0.3 0.6 1.8 3.7

Air Transportation 23.3 23.4 23.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.4 0.9

Truck Transportation 24.8 24.9 24.1 -0.1 0.7 -0.4 2.9

Pipeline Transportation 9.8 9.7 9.4 0.1 0.4 1.0 4.3

Information 33.3 33.2 32.8 0.1 0.5 0.3 1.5

Telecommunications 15.2 15.2 14.8 0.0 0.4 0.0 2.7

Finance & Insurance 92.8 91.5 91.6 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.3

Real Estate & Rental and Leasing 54.4 54.0 52.5 0.4 1.9 0.7 3.6

Professional & Business Services 448.6 443.1 429.1 5.5 19.5 1.2 4.5

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 222.1 216.9 203.2 5.2 18.9 2.4 9.3

Legal Services 24.6 24.5 24.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.7

Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping 20.7 20.5 20.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 3.5

Architectural, Engineering & Related Services 78.8 76.3 69.6 2.5 9.2 3.3 13.2

Computer Systems Design & Related Services 32.3 31.7 29.9 0.6 2.4 1.9 8.0

Admin & Support/Waste Mgt & Remediation 201.2 201.1 201.9 0.1 -0.7 0.0 -0.3

Administrative & Support Services 190.2 190.3 192.2 -0.1 -2.0 -0.1 -1.0

Employment Services 78.8 78.5 74.9 0.3 3.9 0.4 5.2

Educational Services 50.4 50.9 47.6 -0.5 2.8 -1.0 5.9

Health Care & Social Assistance 298.7 296.7 286.3 2.0 12.4 0.7 4.3

Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 33.4 33.2 31.6 0.2 1.8 0.6 5.7

Accommodation & Food Services 257.8 256.8 245.4 1.0 12.4 0.4 5.1

Other Services 103.9 102.6 100.3 1.3 3.6 1.3 3.6

Government 362.2 378.5 352.6 -16.3 9.6 -4.3 2.7

Federal Government 27.3 27.2 27.7 0.1 -0.4 0.4 -1.4

State Government 70.3 70.7 69.7 -0.4 0.6 -0.6 0.9

State Government Educational Services 37.1 37.6 36.8 -0.5 0.3 -1.3 0.8

Local Government 264.6 280.6 255.2 -16.0 9.4 -5.7 3.7

Local Government Educational Services 180.2 194.8 171.3 -14.6 8.9 -7.5 5.2

SOURCE: Texas Workforce Commission

HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE

September 2014 ©2014, Greater Houston Partnership Page 8

Houston Economic Indicators

A Service of the Greater Houston Partnership

Most Year % Most Year %

Month Recent Earlier Change Recent Earlier Change

ENERGY

U.S. Active Rotary Rigs Aug '14 1,904 1,781 6.9 1,835 * 1,763 * 4.1

Spot Crude Oil Price ($/bbl, West Texas Intermediate) Aug '14 96.60 106.76 -9.5 100.57 * 94.66 * 6.2

Spot Natural Gas ($/MMBtu, Henry Hub) Aug '14 4.54 3.39 33.9 4.64 * 3.67 * 26.4

UTILITIES AND PRODUCTION

Houston Purchasing Managers Index July '14 56.4 57.1 -1.2 57.2 * 58.7 * -2.6

Nonresidential Electric Current Sales (Mwh, CNP Service Area) July '14 4,808,711 4,660,412 3.2 30,226,473 29,221,239 3.4

CONSTRUCTION

Total Building Contracts ($, Houston MSA) July '14 5,853,774,000 1,285,612,000 355.3 21,580,591,000 7,296,699,000 195.8

Nonresidential July '14 5,095,015,000 398,728,000 1177.8 15,989,213,000 2,148,196,000 644.3

Residential July '14 758,759,000 886,884,000 -14.4 5,591,378,000 5,148,503,000 8.6

Building Permits ($, City of Houston) July '14 733,370,015 715,175,322 2.5 4,938,898,722 3,510,743,282 40.7

Nonresidential July '14 493,204,753 486,441,733 1.4 3,321,435,602 2,276,769,851 45.9

New Nonresidential July '14 201,438,031 316,886,234 -36.4 1,956,363,284 1,152,047,586 69.8

Nonresidential Additions/Alterations/Conversions July '14 291,766,722 169,555,499 72.1 1,365,072,318 1,124,722,265 21.4

Residential July '14 240,165,262 228,733,589 5.0 1,617,463,120 1,233,973,431 31.1

New Residential July '14 213,973,631 210,105,547 1.8 1,437,967,559 1,107,170,131 29.9

Residential Additions/Alterations/Conversions July '14 26,191,631 18,628,042 40.6 179,495,561 126,803,300 41.6

Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Activity

Property Sales July '14 9,250 9,189 0.7 52,803 51,752 2.0

Median Sales Price - SF Detached July '14 202,000 189,180 6.8 194,114 * 177,143 * 9.6

Active Listings July '14 29,880 32,966 -9.4 28,616 * 32,828 * -12.8

EMPLOYMENT (Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA)

Nonfarm Payroll Employment July '14 2,895,700 2,783,500 4.0 2,860,300 * 2,768,557 * 3.3

Goods Producing (Natural Resources/Mining/Const/Mfg) July '14 575,300 550,000 4.6 564,800 0 543,586 * 3.9

Service Providing July '14 2,320,400 2,233,500 3.9 2,295,500 0 2,224,971 * 3.2

Unemployment Rate (%) - Not Seasonally Adjusted

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA July '14 5.5 6.5 5.3 * 6.4 *

Texas July '14 5.6 6.7 5.4 * 6.6 *

U.S. July '14 6.5 7.7 6.5 * 7.7 *

TRANSPORTATION

Port of Houston Authority Shipments (Short Tons) July '14 4,282,705 3,962,804 8.1 27,198,013 26,058,126 4.4

Air Passengers (Houston Airport System) July '14 4,990,070 4,746,868 5.1 31,019,874 29,770,752 4.2

Domestic Passengers July '14 3,975,402 3,807,525 4.4 25,076,991 24,386,975 2.8

International Passengers July '14 1,014,668 939,343 8.0 5,942,883 5,383,777 10.4

Landings and Takeoffs July '14 71,490 69,529 2.8 475,933 471,552 0.9

Air Freight (metric tons) July '14 39,032 34,404 13.5 249,493 240,376 3.8

Enplaned July '14 20,176 18,721 7.8 131,736 127,489 3.3

Deplaned July '14 18,856 15,683 20.2 117,757 112,887 4.3

CONSUMERS

New Car and Truck Sales (Units, Houston MSA) July '14 30,527 35,133 -13.1 225,691 202,144 11.6

Cars July '14 12,304 15,402 -20.1 99,154 90,584 9.5

Trucks, SUVs and Commercials July '14 18,223 19,731 -7.6 126,537 111,560 13.4

Total Retail Sales ($000,000, Houston MSA, NAICS Basis) 4Q13 35,486 31,561 12.4 114,476 108,258 5.7

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers ('82-'84=100)

Houston-Galveston-Brazoria CMSA July '14 214.668 207.882 3.3 212.836 * 206.584 * 3.0

United States July '14 238.25 233.596 2.0 236.651 * 232.542 * 1.8

Hotel Performance (Houston MSA)

Occupancy (%) 1Q14 73.3 70.4 73.3 * 70.4 *

Average Room Rate ($) 1Q14 107.17 100.46 6.7 107.17 * 100.46 * 6.7

Revenue Per Available Room ($) 1Q14 78.58 70.76 11.1 78.58 * 70.76 * 11.1

YEAR-TO-DATE TOTAL or

YTD AVERAGE*MONTHLY DATA

HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE

September 2014 ©2014, Greater Houston Partnership Page 9

Sources Rig Count Baker Hughes Incorporated Spot WTI, Spot Natural Gas U.S. Energy Information Admin. Houston Purchasing Managers National Association of Index Purchasing Management – Houston, Inc. Electricity CenterPoint Energy Building Construction Contracts McGraw-Hill Construction City of Houston Building Permits Building Permit Department, City of Houston

MLS Data Houston Association of Realtors Employment, Unemployment Texas Workforce Commission

Port Shipments Port of Houston Authority Aviation Aviation Department, City of Houston Car and Truck Sales TexAuto Facts Report, InfoNation, Inc.,

Sugar Land TX Retail Sales Texas Comptroller’s Office Consumer Price Index U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Hotels PKF Consulting/HospitalityAsset Advisors International Postings, Foreclosures Foreclosure Information &Listing Service

HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE

September 2014 ©2014, Greater Houston Partnership Page 10

-150

-120

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

12

-Mo

nth

Ch

ange

(0

00

)

No

nfa

rm P

ayro

ll Em

plo

yme

nt

(00

0)

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Nonfarm Payroll Employment, Houston MSA

12-Month Change Total Payroll Employment

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

420

460

500

540

580

620

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Serv

ice

-Pro

vid

ing

Job

s (0

00

s)

Go

od

s-P

rod

uci

ng

Job

s (0

00

s)

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Goods-Producing and Service-Providing EmploymentHouston MSA

Goods-Producing Jobs Service-Providing Jobs

HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE

September 2014 ©2014, Greater Houston Partnership Page 11

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

% C

ivili

an L

abo

r Fo

rce

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Unemployment Rate - Houston, Texas and U.S.

Houston Texas U.S.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Nat

ura

l Gas

, $ /

mcf

WTI

, $ b

arre

l

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Spot Crude and Natural Gas PricesMonthly Averages

WTI Natural Gas