Housing, #GE2015 & beyond

10 key themes

@BenM_IM

28.4.15 #CIHLonConf

1. Housing is a more

prominent issue

Manifest in this… 3

And this… 4

Source: Social Market Foundation

2. This is not surprising

0

5

10

15

20

Jan2014

Feb2014

Mar2014

Apr2014

May2014

Jun2014

Jul2014

Aug2014

Sep2014

Oct2014

Nov2014

Dec2014

Jan2015

Feb2015

Mar2015

Apr2015

May2015

2014-15 2009-10 2004-5

14

9

5

Salience has been building….

Q1/Q2 What is the most important/other important issues facing Britain? [UNPROMPTED]

% mentioning housing

Base: c1,000 GB adults per month Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

GE

(where no measure (x4 2009-10), previous month % continued)

6

Reflects ‘generation strains’… 7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

All 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

% buy % rent

39 And aspiration: the (second) British religion

Source: Ipsos MORI/#HousingDay Base: All GB adults (1,997), 24 Oct-2 Nov 2014

8

Q. If you had a free choice, would you choose to rent your housing or would you

choose to buy?

0

1

2

3

4

5

Not only unsurprising, but well timed 9

Base: c800 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Leaders Parties

Policies

Q. If you had a total of ten points according to how important each of these was to

you, how many would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend to voting

for, how many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole?

3. But it is still ‘second

order’…

…behind the big hitters

Pensions/ benefits

Europe

Foreign affairs/defence

Unemployment

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0 10 20 30 40 50Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+

What will decide your vote?

Health

Economy

Asylum &

immigration

Education

Q. What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

Q. Looking ahead to the next general election, which, if any issues do you think will be very

important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?

Most important issues

Crime

Taxation

For vote decision – average of Foreign affairs and defence, pensions and benefits

Poverty/inequality

Housing

11

Four key drivers to an issue being ‘sticky’

Engagement ✓

Source: Sir Robert Worcester and Prof. Roger Mortimore (Ipsos MORI)

Explaining Labour’s Landslide

Differentiation ✓ Ability

Will

13 12

✓ ✓ ? ?

4. Likely because weaker

sense of government

agency

Will voting help solve the housing crisis? 14

“WE did not build enough homes” (Ed Miliband, 16.4.15) 15

5. Crisis felt much

less locally (& differently)

Q1/Q2 What is the most important/other important issues facing Britain? [UNPROMPTED]

74% national, 46% local 17

48%

40% Women

Men

54%

45-54

37% 38%

18-24

39%

‘AB’

51%

‘DE’

65%

Social

renter 56%

Private

renter

39%

Mortgage

76%

London

55%

South

39%

North

39%

Scotland

Base: 1,010 GB adults 18+, 11-13 Jan 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/CIH

% agree “There is a

housing crisis in

my local area

65+

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan2014

Feb2014

Mar2014

Apr2014

May2014

Jun2014

Jul2014

Aug2014

Sep2014

Oct2014

Nov2014

Dec2014

Jan2015

Feb2015

Mar2015

Apr2015

May2015

2014-15 2009-10

38

10

Q1/Q2 What is the most important/other important issues facing Britain? [UNPROMPTED]

% mentioning housing

Base: c1,000 GB adults per month, c100+ in London Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

GE

(where no measure (x4 2009-10), previous month % continued)

A top three issue (and top issue for London 2013-) 18

There are different political (& geographic?) perspectives

Base: 1,010 GB adults (telephone) 18+, 11-13 Jan 2015

103 MPs (face-to-face), 4 Nov-19 Dec 2014

‘Voters’ = say ‘certain’ will vote for party at general election

(291 Con, 256 Lab, 68 Lib Dem)

MPs; 45 Con, 45 Lab, 11 Lib Dem

15%

Con

MPs

76%

Lab

MPs

Lib Dem

MPs

34%

Con

voters

51% 52%

Lib Dem

voters

Source: Ipsos MORI/CIH

% agree “There is a housing crisis in my local area

(public)/“…in my constituency” (MPs)

83%

19

6. Prices have been the

iconic issue

Prices front of mind

Q. Which, if any, of the following do you see as the 2 or 3 most important problems

facing the housing market in Britain today?

Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online, 10-13 October 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL

Size of

deposits

31%

Lack of

social housing

30%

House

prices are

too high

47%

Not enough new

homes being built

20%

Rents

too high

28%

Too many people from

abroad buying homes

21%

Housing benefit

changes

14%

Banks not giving

out mortgages

15%

Stamp duty is too high

14%

Big homes

occupied

by 1 or 2 people

5%

Too many

second homes

13%

Not enough schemes for

renters to get on ladder

12%

21

Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75 (online), 10-13 October 2014

Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL

Base: 103 MPs (face-to-face), 4 Nov – 19 Dec 2014

Reducing

the no. of

empty

homes

Making it easier for

FTBs to own/part-

own their homes

28%

Improving

run down

estates

27%

Reducing the no.

of empty homes

32%

Tackling

homelessness &

rough sleeping

22%

Tackling

bad

landlords

15%

Making

homes more

energy

efficient

12%

Building more

homes which are

affordable

35%

Building more

homes which

are affordable

68%

Reducing the no.

of empty homes

26%

Improving run

down estates

22%

Making homes

more energy

efficient

16%

Tackling

homeless-

ness & rough

sleeping

5%

Making it easier

for FTBs to

own/part-own

their homes

39%

Tackling

bad

landlords

17%

Q. This list shows a selection of issues associated with housing in

Britain. Which one or two, if any, do you think should be the highest

priority for the government to deal with?…

Public MPs

Source: Ipsos MORI/ CIH

7. But supply is becoming

the silver bullet

The worm turned… 24

“Yes, but…” 25

8. Remarkable shift in

opinion on supply

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2013 2014

% support % oppose % neither

Source: British Social Attitudes Survey

Britain for Homes? Much more so…

24

Q. Would you support or oppose more homes being built in your local area?

27

39

40

25

60

…it meant

building on

greenfield

…it helped to

bring more and

better facilities to

this area

…more were

built per year

than have been

built per year in

the past

58

27

% Support

% Oppose

But opposition (‘nimbyism’) hasn’t been defeated

Base: 1,002 residents 16+ Source: Ipsos MORI

28

Q. Again thinking about…and, in principle, to what extent would you support or

oppose new homes being built in the future if…

54

32

In principle

9. These trends could

strengthen as ‘political power’

of private renters increases

‘Voting power’

x2.5 owner-occupiers vs renters

Size & turnout are key elements to this

Source: Ipsos MORI election poll aggregates (GB) 2010, ONS Census

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Owners Mortgage Private renters Social renters

Con Lab LibDem UKIP

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor aggregate 2014 (vote share based on those ‘certain to vote’)

PRS & mortgage had been ‘bellweather’ tenures…

% vote share 2014 aggregate

24

31

10. Broad ‘retail offer’ from

housing needed

Mixed tenure provision 33

Q. If new homes were to be built in your local area, which if any of these types of

homes do you think are most needed?

36% 34%

23%

6%

15% 12%

Homes to rentfrom local

authorities orhousing

associations

Homes to buy Homes to part-own and part-

rent

Homes to rentfrom private

landlord

No new homesneeded

Don't know

Base: 2,000 GB adults,16-75 (online), 30 May-4 June 2014 Source: Ipsos MOR/CIH

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

% social % private24

39

%

Social housing: safety net & springboard 34

Q. As you may know there are two main ways that a household can rent their home,

private-rented, when it is being rented from a private landlord, and social rented

from a local council or housing association. Which of the two ways of renting do

you think would best provide… And, overall, which would you say is the best form

of renting?

Source: Ipsos MORI/#HousingDay Base: All GB adults (1,997), 24 Oct-2 Nov 2014

1%21%

24%

53%

The ‘fifth tenure’ remains a blindspot

I am interested in buying or renting an intermediate market home and

have already applied

I don’t know enough about intermediate

housing to know if I am interested or not

Q. Which of the following, if any, best describes your attitude towards intermediate

market housing?

I am interested in buying or renting an intermediate

market home but have NOT applied

I am NOT interested in buying or renting an

intermediate market home

Base: All potential consumers (3,365), 2010

Source: Ipsos MORI/HCA

35 35

Finally… don’t forget

the audience

(& the lived reality)

Understand your audience…(perils of perception)

9

16

18

20

21

16

3/4 or more

Between 1/2 and 3/4

Around half

Between 1/4 and 1/2

Less than 1/4

Don't know

Base: 1,699 adults aged 16+, April-May 2012

Actual = 10%: http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk

Source: Ipsos MORI/British Property Federation

37

Q. ‘Developed land’ is defined as…

What proportion of land in England do you think is developed?

Applies to these too… 38

A warning (in a silver cloud)

Source: Ipsos MORI

Base: 837 adults aged 16+ across England

13 March-1 April 2015

Q. To what extent do you support or oppose Government borrowing money to fund the building

of more affordable housing for people to buy or rent in England?

Base: 790 adults aged 16+ across England

13 March-1 April 2015

It is estimated by Cambridge University that England

needs to build around 240,000 new homes a year to

keep pace with demand. This number of homes has

not been built in any single year since the 1970s.

During this time, private house builders have never

built more than 175,000 homes a year.

% support Question asked with preamble

54

26 20

47

27 25

% neither support/oppose

% oppose

39

@BenM_IM

Movement not moment

Supply, agency, strategy

Good luck!