housing market outlook 3rd q 2013

33
H i M I f m i HousIng Market outlook Date Released: C d M d H i C p i Tal f Cntnts SubSCribe Now! Access CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre publications quickly and conveniently on the Order Desk at www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketin ormation.  View, print, download or subscribe to get market inormation e-mailed to you on the day it is released. CMHC’ s electronic suite o national standardized products is available or ree. Housing market intelligence you can count on Canada Edition Third Quarter 2013 Hsng stats: Housing starts declined earlier in the year, but are expected to remain stable in the second hal o 2013, beore increasing modestly in 2014, along with improving economic undamentals, including employment and net migration. Total housing starts are expected to decline to 182,800 in 2013 and to increase modestly to 186,600 in 2014. Single housing starts should account or a growing share through 2014. rsals: Existing home sales are expected to decline marginally in 2013, but rise along with economic conditions in 2014. Specically, sales through the Multiple Listing Service ®  (MLS ® ) 2 are expected to decline to 448,900 units in 2013, beore seeing an increase to 467,600 in 2014. rsal pcs: The sales-to-new listings ratio is expected to remain well anchored in balanced market conditions over the orecast horizon. Nevertheless, some price growth momentum will see the average MLS ® price grow roughly in line with infation in 2013 and 2014. The average MLS ® price is expected to rise to $374,800 in 2013 and then to $382,800 in 2014. Pvncal sptlght: T otal housing starts are orecast to decline in 2013 in all provinces, except or Alberta. Housing starts are moderating relatively less in the W estern provinces than in Central Canada. In 2014, housing starts are also expected to rebound stronger in Western province s than the national average.  2 National Outlook 6 Trends at a Glance  7 British Columbia 8 Alberta 9 Saskatchewan 10 Manitoba 11 Ontario 12 Quebec 13 New Brunswick 14 Nova Scotia 15 Prince Edward Island 16 Newoundla nd and Labrador 17 Forecast T ables 2013: 182,800 2014: 186,600 2013: 448,900 2014: 467,600 Housing Starts: Resales: 1 The outlook is subject to uncertain ty. Although point orecast s are presented in this publication, CMHC also presents orecast ranges and risks where appropriat e. The orecasts included in this document refect inormation available as o July 25, 2013. 2 Multiple Listing Service (MLS) is a registered trademark owne d by the Canadian Real Estate Association. Canadan Hsng Makt: Hsng st ats t stalz, sals t gan mmntm ovv 1

Upload: david-pylyp

Post on 02-Apr-2018

215 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 133

H i M I f m i

HousIng Market outlook

Date Released

C d M d H i C p i

Tal f Cntnts

SubSCribe Now

Access CMHCrsquos Market AnalysisCentre publications quickly andconveniently on the Order Desk atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinormation

View print download or subscribeto get market inormation e-mailedto you on the day it is releasedCMHCrsquos electronic suite o nationalstandardized products is availableor ree

Housing market intelligence you can count on

Canada Edition

Third Quarter 2013

Hsng stats Housing startsdeclined earlier in the year but areexpected to remain stable in thesecond hal o 2013 beore increasingmodestly in 2014 along with improving

economic undamentals includingemployment and net migration

Total housing starts are expected todecline to 182800 in 2013 and toincrease modestly to 186600 in 2014Single housing starts should account

or a growing share through 2014

rsals Existing home sales are

expected to decline marginally in2013 but rise along with economic

conditions in 2014 Specically salesthrough the Multiple Listing Servicereg

(MLSreg)2 are expected to decline to448900 units in 2013 beore seeingan increase to 467600 in 2014

rsal pcs The sales-to-newlistings ratio is expected to remainwell anchored in balanced market

conditions over the orecast horizonNevertheless some price growth

momentum will see the averageMLSreg price grow roughly in line

with infation in 2013 and 2014The average MLSreg price is expectedto rise to $374800 in 2013 and then

to $382800 in 2014

Pvncal sptlght Total housingstarts are orecast to decline in

2013 in all provinces except orAlberta Housing starts are moderatingrelatively less in the Western provinces

than in Central Canada In 2014housing starts are also expectedto rebound stronger in Westernprovinces than the national average

2 National Outlook

6 Trends at a Glance

7 British Columbia

8 Alberta

9 Saskatchewan

10 Manitoba

11 Ontario

12 Quebec

13 New Brunswick

14 Nova Scotia

15 Prince Edward Island

16 Newoundland and Labrador

17 Forecast Tables

2013 182800

2014 186600

2013 448900

2014 467600

Housing Starts

Resales

1 The outlook is subject to uncertainty Although point orecasts are presented in this publication CMHCalso presents orecast ranges and risks where appropriate The orecasts included in this document refectinormation available as o July 25 2013

2 Multiple Listing Service (MLS) is a registered trademark owned by the Canadian Real Estate Association

Canadan Hsng Makt Hsng statst stalz sals t gan mmntmovv1

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 233

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Dtald Natnal

Hsng otlk

Ttal hsng statsalancng tad hgh

sha f sngls stats n2013 and 2014

As expected the moderation in

economic undamentals includingslower employment and incomegrowth that began in the second

hal o 2012 continued in the rsthal o 2013 This has led to moremodest housing demand Economicconditions have showed some signs

o improvement recently and are

expected to continue to improve inthe second hal o 2013 and in 2014

The average monthly growth rate o seasonally adjusted MLSreg sales newlistings and average price have all been

positive so ar in 2013 Similarly theMLSreg Home Price Index registered ath consecutive monthly increase in

June 2013 As expected this change

in the trend o the resale marketeventually led to more stability in

the level o activity on the newhome market

Total annual housing starts trendedbetween 180000 and 185000 units

or a third consecutive month in JuneOn a national basis total housingstarts are expected to exhibit a stablequarterly path or the rest o the year

similar to the trend that has beenstable since April As a result totalannual housing starts are expected

at 182800 units in 2013 down rom214827 in 2012

As undamentals including

employment economic growth andnet migration are expected to gain

momentum later in 2013 and in 2014housing starts will trend slightly higher

next year Overall a modest gain to186600 housing starts is expectedin 2014 with most o the gains inthe rst hal o the year Economic

uncertainty is refected by a orecastrange varying rom 177100 to188500units or 2013 and rom 165600 to207600 units or 2014

Overall CMHC expects housing startsto somewhat rebalance regionally and

across unit types by the end o theorecast horizon This is expected tomaterialize in a shit toward a highershare o total housing starts being

enumerated in Western provinces as

opposed to Central Canada Similarlysingle housing starts should account

or a growing share through 2014

Sngl-dtachd statslatvly m stal thanmlt-famly stats

Since the late 1990s single housingstarts as a share to total housingstarts have continuously declined

as aordability and popularity o

condominiums boosted multi-amilyhousing starts While this trend isexpected to continue over the longer

term the share o single housing startswill bounce back slightly over theorecast horizon but only becausemulti-amily housing starts will be

moderating relative to elevated levelsin 2011 and 2012

Single starts are expected tomoderate this year although at a

slower pace than multi-amily housingstarts About 77500 single housing

starts are expected to be registeredin 2013 down rom 83657 in 2012This moderation is mostly driven

by slightly weaker employment and

economic growth early in the yearAs these same actors improve single

housing starts are expected to exhibita stable growth path going orwardand into 2014 Builders will closelymatch demand and keep inventories

o single units in line with historicalaverages The outlook or single startsor next year is at 80500 units Single

starts are expected to range between75100 and 79900 units or 2013and between 71300 and 89700 unitsor 2014

Mlt-famly stats xpctd t

dcln n 2013

Multi-amily starts are expected to

decline to 105300 units in 2013 rom131170 in 20123 Multi-amily startsmoderated in the last our monthso 2012 and the rst our months

o 2013 refecting the sotening ineconomic undamentals ollowingthe solid employment and economic

growth that provided strong supportto housing demand rom 2010through early 2012

Lower population growth among the

25 to 344

year age group this yearin Ontario Quebec and the Atlantic

region is also expected to lead to aslight moderation in demand romrst-time home buyers who aremore likely to enter homeownership

through the less expensive multi-amily housing segment especially inlarger centres Over the longer termthe growth rate o this age cohort is

expected to continue to decline inmost provinces

Multi-amily starts are expectedto remain relatively stable in 2014at 106100 units This refects theexpectation o increased housing

demand as a result o improving

3 Multi-amily starts consist o semi-detached row and apartment units

4 Demographic orecasts are based on Statistics Canadarsquos medium-growth population projection

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 333

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

economic conditions relatively lowvacancy rates or rental units andstronger net migration in 2014

It also refects the expectation thatbuilders will want to keep inventorylevels in check despite the large

number o units under construction

The ratio o newly completed andunabsorbed multi-amily housing

units per 10000 population5 stoodat 34 units in the second quartero 2013 barely above the historical

average o 33 units

Multi-amily starts are expectedto range between 102000 and

108600 units in 2013 and between

94300 and 117900 units in 2014

MLS reg sals t dcln n 2013

Existing home sales are expectedto decline in 2013 but rise alongwith economic conditions in 2014

MLSreg sales are expected to berestrained this year partly as a resulto demographic actors including

lower population growth among the25 to 34 year age group which will

moderate growth in the pool o rst-time home buyers Weaker

economic conditions and employmentgrowth over the rst hal o theyear are also expected to curbsales growth this year

In 2014 improving economicconditions and past elevated levels

o net migration are expected tosupport renewed growth in MLSreg sales Following a level o 453372

sales in 2012 CMHCrsquos point orecastsare 448900 MLSreg sales or 2013 and467600 or 2014 MLSreg sales areexpected to be between 431600 and466200 units in 2013 and between

437700 and 497500 units in 2014

balancd makt cndtnsxpctd t pval v fcast hzn

Canadarsquos existing home market hasbeen in balanced market conditionssince 2010 although the sales-to-new

listings ratio an indicator o marketconditions has generally trended closeto the threshold between balancedand sellerrsquos market conditions

throughout this period

Balanced market conditions areexpected to prevail in most local

housing markets leading to an averageMLSreg price that grows roughly in linewith infation in 2013 and 2014

CMHCrsquos point orecast or theaverage MLSreg price is $374800in 2013 and $382800 in 2014

representing increases o 27 percent and 21 per cent respectivelyThe average MLSreg price is orecast tobe between $369100 and $380500

in 2013 and between $371700 and$393900 in 2014

Pvncal smmay

All provinces will see lower housingstarts in 2013 except or Alberta

The lower housing starts refectexpectations that employment netmigration and gross domestic product(GDP) growth although they remain

supportive o the Canadian housingmarket will not likely sustain the samelevel o housing starts as in 2012

Housing starts are moderatingrelatively less in the Western

provinces than in Central CanadaIn 2014 housing starts are alsoexpected to rebound strongerin Western provinces than thenational average

Improving undamentals includingemployment and economic growth

will help support a modest reboundin housing starts in 2014 in BritishColumbia Alberta SaskatchewanOntario Quebec and Nova Scotia

However Manitoba and most o theAtlantic provinces will again see lowerhousing starts in 2014

Most provinces are also expectedto see lower MLSreg sales in 2013although Alberta and British Columbia

are expected to experience modestgains British Columbia is recoveringrom a decline in sales activity in 2012while Alberta will see sales activity

grow moderately ater strong sales

growth in 2012 In 2014 MLS

reg

salesare expected to increase in all regions

except Prince Edward Island andNew Brunswick

In 2013 it is expected that growth

in average MLSreg home prices willoutpace the rate o infation in thePrairies Ontario and Newoundland

and Labrador Average MLSreg homeprices are expected to be generallyin line with the outlook or infation

in 2014 with the exception o the Prairies which will see pricegrowth above the national average(see pages 7 to 16 or the detailedprovincial outlooks)

Tnds impactngHsng6

GDP gth mansspptv

In accordance with the consensusamong prominent Canadian economicorecasters growth in GDP is orecast

at 17 per cent in 2013 beore

5 The level o inventories o single-detached units is measured as the ratio o such completed and unabsorbed housing units per 10000 population

6 CMHC uses publicly available inormation and the consensus among major Canadian orecasters regarding economic assumptions

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 433

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

strengthening to 24 per cent in2014 This compares to GDP growth

estimate o 17 per cent in 2012

The orecast or Canadian GDPgrowth in 2013 was revised up

slightly since the 2013 second quarter

Housing Market Outlook largelyrefecting upward revisions to growth

in industrial production Exportsare projected to gather momentumcoupled with continued growth inconsumer spending Business xed

investment is expected to strengthenas the recovery in Canadian exportsbecomes more rmly entrenchedproviding greater condence about

prospects or global demand The

Canadian economy is expected tocontinue to grow in 2013 at the same

pace as in 2012 and will thereoreremain supportive o the housingmarket In 2014 GDP growth willincrease its support to housing market

activity as the economic outlook strengthens

emplymnt t stayspptv

Employment increased by 12 per centin 2012 Based on the consensus

among prominent Canadianorecasters CMHC expects thatemployment will grow by 14 per centin 2013 and in 2014 Despite the slow

growth in employment year-to-dateemployment growth is anticipated toimprove in the second hal o the yearand is expected to sustain moderate

increases in household incomeand household ormation over the

orecast horizon This will in turnsupport the housing market

Hgh nt mgatn

Canadarsquos strong economic

perormance relative to its peers isexpected to continue to attract a highlevel o immigrants (net internationalmigration) Total net migration is

orecast to reach 259100 people in2013 up rom an estimated 257695in 2012 and above the 10-year

average o about 238800 peopleNet migration is expected to increaseurther to 262450 in 2014

High levels o net migrationby historical standards will helpsupport Canadarsquos housing sector

New migrants typically enter therental market beore moving to

homeownership Migration is expectedto be supportive o demand or

multi-amily housing more specicallypurpose-built rental apartments andrental condominium units over theprojection horizon The high levels

o net migration in the last ew yearswill continue to support multi-amilyhousing over the orecast horizon

particularly rom the relatively highernumbers o migrants to Canada

since 2008

Mtgag ats t s mdstand gadal ncass latn th fcast hzn

t ll man l yhstcal standads

In line with the consensus amongprivate-sector orecasters increasesin the Target Overnight Rate by theBank o Canada are not anticipated

beore mid-2014 This interest rateoutlook has not changed rom the2013 second quarter Housing Market

Outlook and will continue to besupportive o housing market activity

over the orecast horizon

Mortgage rates are expected toincrease gradually and steadily over

the orecast horizon By the end o

2014 mortgage rates are orecastto be somewhat higher than in the

second quarter o 2013 Howeverthese rates will remain low byhistorical standards

According to CMHCrsquos base casescenario or 2013 the one-yearmortgage rate is orecast to be within300 per cent to 350 per cent with

an average o 312 per cent whilethe ve-year posted mortgage rate is

anticipated to be within 500 per centto 550 per cent with an average o 525 per cent For 2014 the one-yearposted mortgage rate is expected torise and be in the 325 per cent to

375 per cent range with an averageo 344 per cent while the ve-yearposted mortgage rate is orecast to be

within 525 per cent to 600 per centwith an average o 562 per centconsistent with higher economic

growth prospects in 2014

Vacancy ats t man stalv th fcast hzn

The average rental apartment vacancy

rate in Canadarsquos 35 major centresis expected to decline slightly to25 per cent by October 2013 rom26 per cent in October 2012 It is

expected to remain at this level inOctober 20147

Most centres saw higher vacancyrates in October 2012 than inOctober 2011 according to CMHCrsquos

7 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

all 2012 Rental Market SurveyImproving economic conditions in

the second hal o 2013 and 2014are expected in part to providegreater support to rental demandover the orecast horizon leading

to the slight decline in vacancyrates that is expected in 2013and 2014

CMHCrsquos all 2012 Rental MarketSurvey also covered condominiumapartments oered or rent in

11 major centres8 Vacancy rates orrental condominiums essentially heldsteady in most centres rom October2011 including Montreal Toronto

Edmonton Winnipeg and Vancouver

Typically the vacancy rates or rentalcondominiums are higher than

vacancy rates or purpose-builtrental apartments

Low vacancy rates o purpose-builtrental apartments over the orecast

horizon are expected to helpsupport multiple-unit housingconstruction particularly in 2014through the expansion o the rental

condominium market

rsks t th otlk This outlook is subject to somerisks including

Mortgage interest rates are still

near their historical low Shouldmortgage interest rates risesooner or aster than expected

by potential buyers and existingmortgage holders this could

lead to a lower level o activityin Canadarsquos housing market and

generate some nancial risksor the more heavily indebtedhomeowner households in the

medium to longer term

Despite recent improvements inthe growth o household credit

elevated levels o household debtand house prices in some urbancentres have made the countryrsquoseconomy more vulnerable to

some economic shocks I interestrates or unemployment were toincrease sharply and signicantly

some o the more heavily indebtedhouseholds could be orced toliquidate some o their assetsincluding their home This could

put downward pressure on houseprices and more generally onhousing market activity Althoughthis risk can arise in the shorter

term its impact would not be

immediate on most indebtedhouseholds because o the

prevalence o xed mortgageterms

Recent levels o units under

construction may impact theinventory o completed andunabsorbed units in the short tomedium term Should the inventory

o new units increase inordinatelybuilders may delay or reduce the

size o some construction projectsThis could lead to a sharper-than-expected moderation in unit starts

A more protracted European

crisis or a more muted recoveryin the US or weaker growth inemerging markets could negatively

impact Canadarsquos net exports andthe countryrsquos overall economicoutlook A stronger-than-expectedUS economic recovery or

stronger growth in emergingcountries could positively impactCanadian economic growthcontributing to a higher level

o activity in Canadarsquos housingmarkets

8 CMHCrsquos Rental Market Survey covers condominium apartments oered or rent in Victoria Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Regina Saskatoon Winnipeg TorontoOttawa Montreacuteal and Queacutebec

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

td gc

Ky facts and th ffcts n hsng stats

Mtgag ats Mortgage rates are expected to increase gradually and steadily over the orecast horizon

However they will remain low by historical standards Current mortgage rates are supportiveo housing demand

emplymnt The labour market has gotten o to a slower than expected start in 2013 with employmentgrowing in the rst six months at a little over hal the rate in 2011 and 2012 Neverthelessemployment is expected to improve during the course o the year and is orecast to grow14 per cent in both 2013 and 2014 which will support Canadarsquos housing sector

incm Growth in incomes is expected to continue albeit at a moderate pace on account o modesteconomic growth in Canada and global markets As a result income growth will remainsupportive o housing demand over the orecast horizon

Nt mgatn Canadarsquos economy is expected to continue to perorm well relative to its peer countries

Canada should thereore continue to attract a high level o immigrants (net internationalmigration) over the orecast horizon which will support housing demand in the medium tolong term

Pplatn9 Lower population growth among the 25 to 34 year age group is expected to lead to a slightmoderation in demand rom rst-time home buyers this year and over the longer termFurthermore Canadarsquos low birth rate should lessen the demand or additional housing stock inthe medium and longer term Population aging however is likely to impact the type and tenureo housing demanded

rsal makt Resale market conditions or 2013 and 2014 are expected to be balanced in most local marketsNevertheless some price momentum will see the average MLSreg price grow roughly in line with

infation in 2013 and 2014Vacancy ats10 The average vacancy rates o purpose-built rental apartments across Canadarsquos metropolitan

centres is expected to decline slightly to 25 per cent in 2013 and remain at that level in 2014Lower vacancy rates or purpose-built rental apartments over the orecast horizon are expectedto help support multiple-unit housing construction particularly in 2014 through the expansiono the rental condominium market

Stck f nand nccpdnts

The stock o unabsorbed new housing units has been stable in the second quarter o 2013indicating continued strength in demand or newly completed homes In addition the ratio o thestock o unabsorbed new units to population a simple gauge to assess potential over-building isclose to the historical average Nevertheless should the inventory increase inordinately buildersmay delay or reduce the size o some housing projects This could lead to a sharper-than-

expected moderation

9 Demographic orecasts are based on Statistics Canadarsquos medium-growth population projection

10 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

btsh Clma

ovv

British Columbiarsquos economy is orecastto expand 19 per cent in 2013 and25 per cent in 2014 slightly ahead o the national average Modest growth

in consumer spending and businessinvestment are expected to contributeto economic growth Population and

employment growth are orecast tohelp increase consumer spendingwhile a weaker Canadian dollar andincreasing demand rom the US is

expected to boost provincial exportsGrowth in exports will supportbusiness investment

British Columbiarsquos labour marketconditions are orecast to improvein 2014 with employment growth

increasing to 15 per cent next yearrom 04 per cent in 2013 This yearrsquosshit to higher levels o ull-timeemployment will carry over into 2014

An increase in ull-time employmentwill support wage growth andhomeownership demand

Demographic trends support arising level o housing demand inthe province Migration rom other

countries partly oset by peoplemoving to other provinces isexpected to add 38000 people thisyear and 41300 people next year

As well population projections byage group indicate a larger number o people in the 25 to 44 year age range

which has traditionally contributedto rst-time home buyer demand11

Population growth in this age rangeis projected to increase rom

11 per cent in 2012 to 18 per centby 2017 up rom less than one percent per annum during the previous

ve-year period The resulting growth

in population combined with strongeremployment growth will push housingsales and starts higher next year

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached startsare projected to rise to 9000 units in

2013 and 9900 units in 2014 Growthin demand or new single-detachedhomes will shit rom urban to rural

BC in 2014 refecting both lowerland costs and rising resource sectoremployment

Multiple Starts British Columbiarsquosmulti-amily starts will ease slightlyto 18100 units in 2013 due to risinginventories and increased competition

rom a well-supplied resale market orcondominium apartments Multi-amilystarts are orecast to edge higher in

2014 increasing to 18700 units as

demand strengthens and inventorieso new completed and unoccupiedunits are drawn lower Multi-amily

construction in the province has beensupported by low vacancy rates inthe rental sector and demand rom

buyers seeking less costly and lowermaintenance alternatives to single-detached housing Expect smallerphased projects to continue to get

under way in housing markets outsideo Vancouver with an increase inlarger multi-amily projects starting

construction in Vancouver includingseveral intended or the rental market

Resales MLSreg sales are orecast to

increase to 70100 in 2013 and 77000in 2014 Demand will be broad-baseduelled by rising employment coupled

with low interest rates ample supplyand stable prices

Prices Expect rising new listings in line

with stronger existing home sales tokeep price growth in check this yearand next The average residential MLSreg

price in British Columbia is orecast to

edge higher with projected increases

below the pace o consumer priceinfation The average price is orecast

at $518300 in 2013 and $523200in 2014

British Columbia Starts (000s)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 27100 or 2013 and 28600 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 26400-27800 units or 2013 and 25700-31500 or 2014

Figure 1

11 BC Stats population projections show annual growth o the 25 to 44 year age category adding on average 18700 persons this year and next Source PEOPLE2012 CMHC calculations

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Alta

ovv

Flooding in Alberta during the montho June damaged many homes and

businesses as well as inrastructureWhile the ull extent o the economic

damage will not be determinedor some time it is expected thatthe fooding will have a short-termnegative impact on economic activity

in 2013 However Albertarsquos real GDPwill still increase by 20 per cent asother actors such as investments in

the energy industry will help keepoverall growth positive Looking aheadfood remediation expenditures and

related activities will provide a boostto the economy helping Albertarsquos realGDP increase by 30 in 2014

Fundamental drivers o housingsuch as household ormationpopulation and employment growthwill continue to propel Albertarsquos

housing markets over the orecasthorizon Employment is projectedto increase by 20 per cent in2013 and 21 per cent in 2014

An expanding labour orce will keepthe unemployment rate around46 per cent through 2014 Tight

labour market conditions and risingwages will continue to be a draw ormigrants and support housing demand

The population o Alberta increasedby over 3 per cent in 2012 andis expected to continue to grow

substantially supported by migrationNet migration to Alberta is projected

to remain elevated at 75900 in 2013and 63000 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached stars

are projected to rise to 18200 unitsin 2013 and to 18900 units in 2014The rising level o sales in the resale

market is supportive o new homeconstruction as some buyers will look to new construction to meet their

needs Some food damaged homeswill be demolished and replaced butmost o the housing that is currently

being built or food impactedhouseholds is temporary As theoundation or temporary housingis not permanent those units will

not be counted as a housing start

Multiple Starts Multi-amily startsare orecast at 15600 units in 2013

and 15500 units in 2014 O Albertarsquosseven largest centres only Calgaryis projected to experience a decline

in multi-amily starts in 2013 atershowing an elevated level o activityin 2012 In 2014 multi-amily starts inEdmonton are expected to decline

ater two consecutive years o strong production The changes in

production in Edmonton and Calgaryare expected to somewhat oset each

other and keep multi-amily startsrelatively stable over the orecastperiod

Resales Infows o migrants andull-time job growth are increasinghousing demand and liting MLSreg sales

which are projected to increase to62700 in 2013 and to 64200 in 2014Flooding in Alberta has impacted

some real estate markets some to alarger extent than others howeverreal estate activity is expected to

normalize with time

Prices The average MLSreg pricein Alberta is orecast to increase

36 per cent to $376300 in 2013 and

then rise 24 per cent to $385300in 2014 Higher demand relative tosupply is putting upward pressure

on prices and real estate valuesare projected to increase over theorecast period

Alberta Starts (000s)

0

5

10

15

2025

30

35

40

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 2

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 33800 or 2013 and 34400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 33000-34600 units or 2013 and 30800-38000 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Saskatchan

ovv

Saskatchewanrsquos real GDP is projectedto increase by 21 per cent in

2013 and by 28 per cent in 2014Economic growth in Saskatchewan is

expected to remain strong relativeto other provinces through 2014Saskatchewanrsquos international exportsare increasing this year as rising

exports o agricultural and mineralproducts have been more thanosetting a decline in energy products

Consumer spending will continue togrow supported by population andwage growth

Saskatchewanrsquos labour market willcontinue to grow with its expandingeconomy Employment is projected

to increase by 29 per cent in 2013and then by 17 per cent in 2014Employment gains are not currentlybeing met by a commensurate

increase in the labour orce and thisis keeping the unemployment ratelow is some parts o SaskatchewanThe unemployment rate at the

provincial level is orecast at 42 percent in 2013 and 43 per cent in 2014Saskatchewanrsquos unemployment rate

will remain the lowest o all provincesover the orecast period

Net migration to Saskatchewan

is projected to reach 11900 in2013 and 12100 in 2014 The vastmajority o Saskatchewanrsquos gains will

come rom international migrationInterprovincial migration is projected

to remain positive over the orecastperiod as economic opportunities

draw migrants rom other parts o Canada New household ormationand housing demand will continueto be supported by migration to

Saskatchewan but not to the sameextent as in 2012

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached startswill moderate to 4100 units in 2013

as high inventory levels continueto slow the pace o initiating newprojects While demand or newsingle-detached homes will remain

elevated the slower pace o absorptions at completion will bea constraining actor on starts this

year A slight increase to 4200 unitsis expected in 2014

Multiple Starts Following an increase

to 4797 units in 2012 multi-amilystarts are projected to decline to3400 units in 2013 due to risinginventory With absorptions lagging

completions this year inventory isrising and will motivate home buildersto scale back production o multi-

amily units Multi-amily starts are

expected to edge higher in 2014to 3500 units

Resales MLSreg sales in Saskatchewanare orecast to moderate to13200 units in 2013 due to lower

net migration and rise modestlyto 13400 units in 2014 While theelevated number o 13950 resales in

2012 will not be surpassed over theorecast period MLSreg sales will remainelevated by historical standards

Prices The average MLSreg price inSaskatchewan is projected to rise to$288000 in 2013 rom $274268 in

2012 Balanced market conditionsover the orecast period are expectedto increase the average MLSreg price to$294100 in 2014

Saskatchewan Starts (000s)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7500 or 2013 and 7700 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 7300-7700 units or 2013 and

6900-8500 or 2014

Figure 3

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1033

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Manta

ovv

Manitobarsquos real GDP growth isprojected at 19 per cent in 2013

and 20 per cent in 2014 Capitalinvestment expenditures in the utility

sector mining oil and gas as wellas the manuacturing industry areexpected to be drivers o economicgrowth Expected stronger economic

growth in the United States in 2014may increase international tradebeyond the single digit growth

experienced thus ar in 2013

Economic activity in Manitoba is

projected to generate employmentgrowth o 10 per cent in 2013 and13 per cent in 2014 Manitobarsquoslabour orce is expected to increase

at a similar rate helping to keep theunemployment rate lower than thenational average and relatively stableat 53 per cent in 2013 and 2014

Net migration in Manitoba a keydriver o population growth and

housing demand is orecast to reach

8600 people in 2013 and edgelower to 8500 people in 2014 TheProvincial Nominee Program will

continue to encourage migrants torelocate to Manitoba and internationalmigration is expected to be a primarydriver o population growth and

new household ormation Howeverinternational gains will be reducedby interprovincial outfows primarily

to Alberta

in Dtal

Single Starts Manitobarsquos single-

detached housing starts are expectedto remain elevated at 4000 units in2013 and 4100 units in 2014 Wage

growth near infation and employmentgains will support demand or newhomes moving orward On the other

hand moderating net migration andrising supply levels will keep single-detached starts near the 4000 unitlevel over the orecast period

Multiple Starts Multi-amily startsare projected to slightly surpass

2012rsquos production and reach3100 units in 2013 Low vacancyrates across the province havesupported construction in the

rental sector Meanwhile demandor condominiums is being uelled byrst-time buyers and empty-nestersWith a growing number o units

under construction builders will easeproduction to 2900 units in 2014

Resales MLSreg sales are orecast tomoderate rom last yearrsquos record to13600 in 2013 beore reboundingslightly to 13700 in 2014 The move-

up buying segment o the market will

be supported by home equity gainsrom rising real estate values Demand

will also be bolstered by populationgrowth and employment gainsHowever these will be counteredby increased mortgage carrying

costs keeping sales below the2012 peak o 14008

Prices The average residential MLSreg price in Manitoba is orecast to riseto $256600 in 2013 ollowed by anincrease to $263000 in 2014 Slower

sales combined with a slight increasein new listings will result in a higherinventory o active listings particularly

in Winnipeg This will help to easesellersrsquo market conditions in Winnipegand reduce upward pressure on pricegrowth over the orecast period

Manitoba Starts (000s)

0

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7100 or 2013 and 7000 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 6900-7300 units or 2013 and

6300-7700 or 2014

Figure 4

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1133

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

onta

ovv

Ontariorsquos economy will grow at amodest pace o 15 per cent this year

beore gaining momentum in 2014with growth o 26 per cent Next

year would be the rst time in over adecade that Ontario outpaces overallgrowth in Canada Consumer andpublic sector spending will contribute

less to economic growth Insteadimproving business investmentnon-residential construction and

trade will drive Ontariorsquos economysupported in part by a relativelycheaper Canadian dollar According

to consensus among Canadianorecasters the US economy isexpected to gain strength againstother global economies by 2014

This is expected to support Ontariorsquostrade sector

Ontario employment growth will

strengthen to 17 per cent by nextyear and will ollow in the ootstepso an improving economy Ontariorsquosunemployment rate will decline

relative to most other provinceswhich will support a stronger paceo income growth in 2014

As Ontario gradually closes theeconomic growth gap with otherregions migratory outfows to

other parts o Canada will lessenSimilarly international migration willprovide some underlying support to

population growth as Ontariorsquos shareo international migration moves

higher and closer to historic normsNet migration to Ontario will

rise rom 83100 people to over93600 people in 2014

Against the improving backdrop

Ontario residential constructionwill slow down this year beorestabilizing in 2014 Starts will decline

to 58600 units in 2013 beorereaching 59400 units next yearResale activity will hold up betterover the orecast horizon but

will not reach the peak o 2007Modest job growth relative to therecent past better supplied resale

markets and a high level o apartmentunits under construction will restraingrowth in housing starts over theorecast horizon

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached starts

are orecast at 23000 and 23900units in 2013 and 2014 respectivelyLow inventories o unsold homesand tighter resale market conditions

will allow detached construction topost some growth over the orecasthorizon relative to higher density

housing construction

Multiple Starts Multi-amily homeconstruction will slow to 35600 units

this year beore stabilizing at 35500units in 2014 Apartment starts willalso moderate in 2013 as apartment

demand slows beore stabilizingin 2014 More choice in the resalemarket will dampen demand or

new condominiums Furthermore ahigh level o apartment units underconstruction is generating capacityconstraints or the industry - making

it dicult or new projects tocommence construction

Resales Existing home sales willreach 195400 units this year justshy o 2012 levels Ater trendinglower since the spring o 2012

existing home sales have stabilizedand are expected to graduallyimprove over the orecast horizon

reaching 202800 units in 2014More condominium completionscoupled with the resale marketrsquosprice advantage will provide more

choice to potential home buyers

Prices A balanced Ontario resale

market suggests prices will grow inline with the general rate o infation

over the orecast horizon In additionshiting preerences rom expensive

to inexpensive housing will also exertdownward pressure on average pricesover the next ew years Ontarioaverage home prices will grow to

$397400 and $404400 in 2013and 2014 respectively

Ontario Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 58600 or 2013 and 59400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 57000-60200 units or 2013 and

53200-65600 or 2014

Figure 5

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1233

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Qc

ovv

In Quebec relatively slow economicand employment growth will reduce

demand o existing and new homesthis year Easing resale markets and

relatively high inventories o newdwellings will signicantly lowerhousing starts in 2013 Nonethelessdemographic trends will support

housing demand into 2014 at whichtime a strengthening economy andtightening resale markets will energize

both the resale and new housingmarkets

On the economic ront Quebecrsquoslabour markets still eel the impacts o a slow recovery south o the borderand o more avourable employment

prospects in western Canada Whilebusiness investment has increasedsolidly rms have ocused on xedcapital rather than on hiring For this

reason employment will progress at arelatively slow pace in 2013 and 2014(14 per cent each year) Meanwhilepublic and consumer spending have

increased moderately while exportlevels remained stable GDP growth o between 15 and 22 per cent growth

is expected during the orecasthorizon

Demographic trends will continue

to support the provincersquos housingmarkets in the next two yearsSustained immigration to the province

will still have a positive impact ondemand in the rental market as

fows are expected to remain stableover the orecast horizon Total

net migration is expected to reachrespectively 44700 and 45300persons in 2013 and 2014 Whilemoderating demand rom younger

households cools rst-time buyingpopulation aging will prompt some

older households to re-enter themarket in response to their evolvinghousing needs

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 moderate jobgrowth the continued easing o the

resale market which is expectedto attract a greater part o housingdemand and the trend toward multi-amily dwelling will contribute to

reduce single starts and translateinto a total o 13700 single-detachedhomes started In 2014 a tighter

resale market will bring some supportto the new housing market segmentwhich is expected to result in14100 single starts

Multiple Starts The trend towardthe multi-amily market segment is

explained by its relative aordability

the changing needs o an agingpopulation and by densicationtrends Fuelled by the popularity o

condominium apartments supply inthis market segment has increasedsignicantly As a result o threeyears o sustained construction rom

2010 to 2012 market conditions inthis market have eased signicantly

Starts o multi-amily dwellings willthus decrease considerably this yearMultiple starts will descend below the25000 level in 2013 and rise to the

25700 mark in 2014

Resales While holding steady in 2012

sales recorded by Centrisreg12 havebeen recently declining as a resulto the overall economic contextdiscussed previously Despite a certain

rebound expected in the secondhal o this year resales will come inat a lower level this year For 2013

73000 such transactions are orecastAs buying conditions improve totalresales will be back in growth modenext year In total 75700 Centrisreg

sales are orecast or 2014

Prices Relatively lower demand orresale homes combined with rising

supply has taken pressure o price

growth in recent quarters and shouldcontinue to do so throughout this

coming year With a return to morebalanced conditions price growthin the resale market will continueto moderate in 2013 The average

price recorded by Centrisreg will reach$269100 in 2013 and $272000next year

Quebec Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 38500 or 2013 and 39800 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 37500-39500 units or 2013 and 35600-44000 or 2014

Figure 6

12 The Centrisreg system contains all the listings o Quebec real estate brokers

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1333

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

N bnsck

ovv

GDP growth is expected to remainweak over the orecast period with

03 per cent growth orecast or theprovince in 2013 and 10 per cent in

2014 The current weakness stemsrom a reduction in capital investmentThe natural resources sector a keydriver or economic growth in the

province is also expected to postmixed results in 2013

New Brunswick labour marketconditions will remain relatively sotas employment growth is projected

to decline 04 per cent in 2013 andrise 05 per cent in 2014 Slow growthin the labour orce will leave theunemployment rate at 108 per cent

over the next two years

The economic prospects or theprovince are also being held back by

slower population growth and risingout-migration Net migration is notexpected to improve signicantly

in 2013 or 2014 as international

migration is expected to remain weak and interprovincial migration althoughnot as negative as the level reported

in 2012 will not turn positive over theorecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts Rising out-migrationin some centres combined withweakened employment conditions

will have a dampening eect on

housing market activity in 2013 and2014 Single starts are orecast todecline to 1200 units in 2013 and

to 1100 units in 2014

Multiple Starts Stronger building

activity in the rental market duringthe past three years particularlyin Moncton and Fredericton hasresulted in rising vacancy rates

With an expectation that vacancyrates in New Brunswickrsquos three largesturban centers will continue to risein 2013 and 2014 developers are

expected to become more cautiousleading to a reduction in apartmentstarts As a result multiple starts areexpected to decline to 1300 units

in 2013 with a urther decline to1050 units in 2014

Resales Overall market conditionscontinue to benet potential homebuyers in 2013 as many segmentso the market have shited towards

buyerrsquos market conditions Withexpected declines in employmentin 2013 and rising out-migrationdemand is not expected to increase

substantially over the orecast periodConsequently MLSreg sales shoulddecline to 6000 units in 2013 with a

urther decline to 5800 in 2014

Prices The inventory o availablehomes is expected to remain at

historically high levels in NewBrunswickrsquos large urban centresin 2013 and 2014 This will impact

the level o price growth The MLSreg average price is expected to decreaseto $161000 in 2013 and again to$160500 in 2014

New Brunswick Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 2500 or 2013 and 2150 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2175-2825 units or 2013 and

1500-2800 or 2014

Figure 7

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1433

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nva Scta

ovv

The province o Nova Scotia isexpected to record economic

growth o 10 per cent in 2013 and15 per cent in 2014 Economic

conditions are expected to slowlyimprove over the orecast periodHaliaxrsquos shipbuilding industry willadd to growth as current and uture

construction repair and maintenanceprojects are expected to createeconomic activity over the short

and medium term The energy sectorwill add to provincial production inthe second hal o 2013The benets

o a lower Canadian dollar will also beelt by companies exporting materialsand goods

Nova Scotia labour market conditionswill remain stable in 2013 asemployment growth is projected torise 04 per cent this year compared

to growth o 06 per cent in 2012In 2014 the rise in growth will be to09 per cent as a result o a moderaterise in private sector investment

activity A similar level in the growtho the labour orce in 2013 and 2014will leave the unemployment rate

close to 90 per cent in both years

For 2013 interprovincial migration willmoderate to close to 4000 people

as was reported in 2012 The level o interprovincial migration will remainnegative in 2014 at close to -2000

people The level o internationalmigration will drop close to -2000 in

2013 and -1350 in 2014 As a resultnet-migration will remain negative at

-2000 in 2013 and -750 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 modestemployment growth and shitingconsumer demand will result in a

decline in single-detached startsto 1840 units For 2014 expecteconomic growth to stimulatedemand in the new homes market

resulting in a rise to 1975 single-detached starts in the province

Multiple Starts The provincialmulti-amily segment o themarket will continue to be drivenby apartment-style rental unit

construction most o which will takeplace in Haliax Demand or rentalhousing will be largely driven by anaging population base that is looking

to downsize or move to one-foorliving accommodations Expect semi-detached and row units to also remain

a popular alternative over the orecastperiod or rst-time home buyersMultiple starts will total 2185 unitsin 2013 beore declining to 2100

starts in 2014

Resales Following a slight increase

in 2012 MLSreg sales will decline in2013 to 9300 units In 2014 expecta smaller decline in provincialnet migration and an improving

employment outlook to result ina small reversal in MLSreg sales to9600 units

Prices The average sale price o anexisting home in Nova Scotia climbed37 per cent in 2012 to $220413In 2013 reduced demand will shit

market conditions towards a buyerrsquosmarket resulting in slowing pricegrowth o 07 per cent to $222000

In 2014 prices will increase to$226000 as improving economicactors will result in better marketconditions

Nova Scotia Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 4025 or 2013 and 4075 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 3525-4525 units or 2013 and 3075-5075 or 2014

Figure 8

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Pnc edad

island

ovv

Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic

growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent

declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the

prospects or manuacturing andexports

Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support

the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth

o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment

rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon

The economic prospects or the

province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012

Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about

500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts The slowdown in

population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units

in 2014

Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a

continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise

in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply

o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014

Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will

impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014

Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will

also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be

$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014

Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is

refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014

Figure 9

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nfndland and

Laad

ovv

Newoundland and Labrador will see

a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise

to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil

production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related

private sector investment activity

One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness

in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador

Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth

is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the

rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the

unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years

Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over

the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population

growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in

2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but

the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period

in Dtal

Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and

2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single

starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity

is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single

starts in 2014

Multiple Starts Multiple unit

construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast

period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014

Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a

decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to

improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net

migration increases

Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels

elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average

MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000

in 2014

Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)

00

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and

2200-3600 or 2014

Figure 10

13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Canada Starts (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 11

The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

3 6 0 6

3 4 8 8

3 8 8 5

3 0 5 0

2 9 0 0

2 7 2 6

3 0 6 9

3 4 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 8 0 0

3 3 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 8 0

- 3 3

1 1 4

- 2 1 5

- 4 9

- 2 4 7

1 2 6

1 0 8

- 1 1 8

- 6 7

1 7 9

- 9 1

- 1 6 7

P E I

7 5 6

9 4 0

9 4 1

8 0 0

7 0 0

9 2 0

7 5 7

7 7 5

7 5 5

6 5 0

7 4 0

7 4 5

6 6 5

- 1 3 8

2 4 3

0 1

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 5

- 4 0

- 1 7 7

2 4

- 2 6

- 1 3 9

1 3 8

0 7

- 1 0 7

N S

4 3 0 9

4 6 4 4

4 5 2 2

4 0 2 5

4 0 7 5

4 6 1 1

3 4 5 6

4 1 5 0

3 8 5 0

3 6 0 0

4 5 0 0

4 3 0 0

3 9 0 0

2 5 3

7 8

- 2 6

- 1 1 0

1 2

- 1 1 0

- 2 5 0

2 0 1

- 7 2

- 6 5

2 5 0

- 4 4

- 9 3

N B

4 1 0 1

3 4 5 2

3 2 9 9

2 5 0 0

2 1 5 0

3 4 2 9

2 9 0 4

1 9 0 0

1 7 7 5

1 7 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 6 5

-

1 5 8

- 4 4

- 2 4 2

- 1 4 0

1 6 3

- 1 5 3

- 3 4 6

- 6 6

- 4 2

4 1 2

4 2

- 2 0 0

Q U E

5 1 3 6 3

4 8 3 8 7

4 7 3 6 7

3 8 5 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 5 9 2 6

3 8 1 0 4

3 9 8 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

3 9 7 5 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

1 8 3

- 5 8

- 2 1

- 1 8 7

3 4

- 2 0 3

6 1

4 5

0 5

- 0 6

0 1

0 0

0 0

O N T

6 0 4 3 3

6 7 8 2 1

7 6 7 4 2

5 8 6 0 0

5 9 4 0 0

5 6 7 1 5

5 7 9 3 1

5 9 4 5 0

6 0 2 5 0

6 0 8 0 0

6 0 2 0 0

5 9 0 0 0

5 7 7 0 0

2 0 0

1 2 2

1 3 2

- 2 3 6

1 4

- 1 8 2

2 1

2 6

1 3

0 9

- 1 0

- 2 0

- 2 2

M A N

5 8 8 8

6 0 8 3

7 2 4 2

7 1 0 0

7 0 0 0

6 8 1 0

7 3 8 2

7 0 0 0

7 1 0 0

7 1 0 0

6 8 0 0

6 9 0 0

7 0 0 0

4 1 1

3 3

1 9 1

- 2 0

- 1 4

6 1

8 4

- 5 2

1 4

0 0

- 4 2

1 5

1 4

S A S K

5 9 0 7

7 0 3 1

9 9 6 8

7 5 0 0

7 7 0 0

6 5 5 8

7 4 9 7

7 9 0 0

8 0 0 0

7 6 0 0

7 9 0 0

7 7 0 0

7 6 0 0

5 2 8

1 9 0

4 1 8

- 2 4 8

2 7

- 4 0 7

1 4 3

5 4

1 3

- 5 0

3 9

- 2 5

- 1 3

A L T A

2 7 0 8 8

2 5 7 0 4

3 3 3 9 6

3 3 8 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 3 7 2 5

3 9 1 6 2

3 1 4 0 0

3 0 9 0 0

3 4 0 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 4 2 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 3 5

- 5 1

2 9 9

1 2

1 8

- 2 2

1 6 1

- 1 9 8

- 1 6

1 0 0

1 2

- 0 6

2 3

B C

2 6 4 7 9

2 6 4 0 0

2 7 4 6 5

2 7 1 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 4 0 3 6

2 5 2 7 3

2 9 5 0 0

2 9 5 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 3 0 0

6 4 7

- 0 3

4 0

- 1 3

5 5

- 1 8

5 1

1 6 7

0 0

- 2 7

- 0 3

0 3

- 1 4

C A N

1 8 9 9 3 0

1 9 3 9 5 0

2 1 4 8 2 7

1 8 2 8 0 0

1 8 6 6 0 0

1 7 5 4 5 6

1 8 5 5 3 5

1 8 5 3 0 0

1 8 5 1 0 0

1 8 6 7 0 0

1 8 8 6 0 0

1

8 6 8 0 0

1 8 4 5 0 0

2 7 4

2 1

1 0 8

- 1 4 9

2 1

- 1 3 8

5 7

- 0 1

- 0 1

0 8

1 0

- 1 0

- 1 3

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1

8 8 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6

0 0 - 2

0 7 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8

0 0 u n

i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 2: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 233

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Dtald Natnal

Hsng otlk

Ttal hsng statsalancng tad hgh

sha f sngls stats n2013 and 2014

As expected the moderation in

economic undamentals includingslower employment and incomegrowth that began in the second

hal o 2012 continued in the rsthal o 2013 This has led to moremodest housing demand Economicconditions have showed some signs

o improvement recently and are

expected to continue to improve inthe second hal o 2013 and in 2014

The average monthly growth rate o seasonally adjusted MLSreg sales newlistings and average price have all been

positive so ar in 2013 Similarly theMLSreg Home Price Index registered ath consecutive monthly increase in

June 2013 As expected this change

in the trend o the resale marketeventually led to more stability in

the level o activity on the newhome market

Total annual housing starts trendedbetween 180000 and 185000 units

or a third consecutive month in JuneOn a national basis total housingstarts are expected to exhibit a stablequarterly path or the rest o the year

similar to the trend that has beenstable since April As a result totalannual housing starts are expected

at 182800 units in 2013 down rom214827 in 2012

As undamentals including

employment economic growth andnet migration are expected to gain

momentum later in 2013 and in 2014housing starts will trend slightly higher

next year Overall a modest gain to186600 housing starts is expectedin 2014 with most o the gains inthe rst hal o the year Economic

uncertainty is refected by a orecastrange varying rom 177100 to188500units or 2013 and rom 165600 to207600 units or 2014

Overall CMHC expects housing startsto somewhat rebalance regionally and

across unit types by the end o theorecast horizon This is expected tomaterialize in a shit toward a highershare o total housing starts being

enumerated in Western provinces as

opposed to Central Canada Similarlysingle housing starts should account

or a growing share through 2014

Sngl-dtachd statslatvly m stal thanmlt-famly stats

Since the late 1990s single housingstarts as a share to total housingstarts have continuously declined

as aordability and popularity o

condominiums boosted multi-amilyhousing starts While this trend isexpected to continue over the longer

term the share o single housing startswill bounce back slightly over theorecast horizon but only becausemulti-amily housing starts will be

moderating relative to elevated levelsin 2011 and 2012

Single starts are expected tomoderate this year although at a

slower pace than multi-amily housingstarts About 77500 single housing

starts are expected to be registeredin 2013 down rom 83657 in 2012This moderation is mostly driven

by slightly weaker employment and

economic growth early in the yearAs these same actors improve single

housing starts are expected to exhibita stable growth path going orwardand into 2014 Builders will closelymatch demand and keep inventories

o single units in line with historicalaverages The outlook or single startsor next year is at 80500 units Single

starts are expected to range between75100 and 79900 units or 2013and between 71300 and 89700 unitsor 2014

Mlt-famly stats xpctd t

dcln n 2013

Multi-amily starts are expected to

decline to 105300 units in 2013 rom131170 in 20123 Multi-amily startsmoderated in the last our monthso 2012 and the rst our months

o 2013 refecting the sotening ineconomic undamentals ollowingthe solid employment and economic

growth that provided strong supportto housing demand rom 2010through early 2012

Lower population growth among the

25 to 344

year age group this yearin Ontario Quebec and the Atlantic

region is also expected to lead to aslight moderation in demand romrst-time home buyers who aremore likely to enter homeownership

through the less expensive multi-amily housing segment especially inlarger centres Over the longer termthe growth rate o this age cohort is

expected to continue to decline inmost provinces

Multi-amily starts are expectedto remain relatively stable in 2014at 106100 units This refects theexpectation o increased housing

demand as a result o improving

3 Multi-amily starts consist o semi-detached row and apartment units

4 Demographic orecasts are based on Statistics Canadarsquos medium-growth population projection

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 333

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

economic conditions relatively lowvacancy rates or rental units andstronger net migration in 2014

It also refects the expectation thatbuilders will want to keep inventorylevels in check despite the large

number o units under construction

The ratio o newly completed andunabsorbed multi-amily housing

units per 10000 population5 stoodat 34 units in the second quartero 2013 barely above the historical

average o 33 units

Multi-amily starts are expectedto range between 102000 and

108600 units in 2013 and between

94300 and 117900 units in 2014

MLS reg sals t dcln n 2013

Existing home sales are expectedto decline in 2013 but rise alongwith economic conditions in 2014

MLSreg sales are expected to berestrained this year partly as a resulto demographic actors including

lower population growth among the25 to 34 year age group which will

moderate growth in the pool o rst-time home buyers Weaker

economic conditions and employmentgrowth over the rst hal o theyear are also expected to curbsales growth this year

In 2014 improving economicconditions and past elevated levels

o net migration are expected tosupport renewed growth in MLSreg sales Following a level o 453372

sales in 2012 CMHCrsquos point orecastsare 448900 MLSreg sales or 2013 and467600 or 2014 MLSreg sales areexpected to be between 431600 and466200 units in 2013 and between

437700 and 497500 units in 2014

balancd makt cndtnsxpctd t pval v fcast hzn

Canadarsquos existing home market hasbeen in balanced market conditionssince 2010 although the sales-to-new

listings ratio an indicator o marketconditions has generally trended closeto the threshold between balancedand sellerrsquos market conditions

throughout this period

Balanced market conditions areexpected to prevail in most local

housing markets leading to an averageMLSreg price that grows roughly in linewith infation in 2013 and 2014

CMHCrsquos point orecast or theaverage MLSreg price is $374800in 2013 and $382800 in 2014

representing increases o 27 percent and 21 per cent respectivelyThe average MLSreg price is orecast tobe between $369100 and $380500

in 2013 and between $371700 and$393900 in 2014

Pvncal smmay

All provinces will see lower housingstarts in 2013 except or Alberta

The lower housing starts refectexpectations that employment netmigration and gross domestic product(GDP) growth although they remain

supportive o the Canadian housingmarket will not likely sustain the samelevel o housing starts as in 2012

Housing starts are moderatingrelatively less in the Western

provinces than in Central CanadaIn 2014 housing starts are alsoexpected to rebound strongerin Western provinces than thenational average

Improving undamentals includingemployment and economic growth

will help support a modest reboundin housing starts in 2014 in BritishColumbia Alberta SaskatchewanOntario Quebec and Nova Scotia

However Manitoba and most o theAtlantic provinces will again see lowerhousing starts in 2014

Most provinces are also expectedto see lower MLSreg sales in 2013although Alberta and British Columbia

are expected to experience modestgains British Columbia is recoveringrom a decline in sales activity in 2012while Alberta will see sales activity

grow moderately ater strong sales

growth in 2012 In 2014 MLS

reg

salesare expected to increase in all regions

except Prince Edward Island andNew Brunswick

In 2013 it is expected that growth

in average MLSreg home prices willoutpace the rate o infation in thePrairies Ontario and Newoundland

and Labrador Average MLSreg homeprices are expected to be generallyin line with the outlook or infation

in 2014 with the exception o the Prairies which will see pricegrowth above the national average(see pages 7 to 16 or the detailedprovincial outlooks)

Tnds impactngHsng6

GDP gth mansspptv

In accordance with the consensusamong prominent Canadian economicorecasters growth in GDP is orecast

at 17 per cent in 2013 beore

5 The level o inventories o single-detached units is measured as the ratio o such completed and unabsorbed housing units per 10000 population

6 CMHC uses publicly available inormation and the consensus among major Canadian orecasters regarding economic assumptions

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 433

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

strengthening to 24 per cent in2014 This compares to GDP growth

estimate o 17 per cent in 2012

The orecast or Canadian GDPgrowth in 2013 was revised up

slightly since the 2013 second quarter

Housing Market Outlook largelyrefecting upward revisions to growth

in industrial production Exportsare projected to gather momentumcoupled with continued growth inconsumer spending Business xed

investment is expected to strengthenas the recovery in Canadian exportsbecomes more rmly entrenchedproviding greater condence about

prospects or global demand The

Canadian economy is expected tocontinue to grow in 2013 at the same

pace as in 2012 and will thereoreremain supportive o the housingmarket In 2014 GDP growth willincrease its support to housing market

activity as the economic outlook strengthens

emplymnt t stayspptv

Employment increased by 12 per centin 2012 Based on the consensus

among prominent Canadianorecasters CMHC expects thatemployment will grow by 14 per centin 2013 and in 2014 Despite the slow

growth in employment year-to-dateemployment growth is anticipated toimprove in the second hal o the yearand is expected to sustain moderate

increases in household incomeand household ormation over the

orecast horizon This will in turnsupport the housing market

Hgh nt mgatn

Canadarsquos strong economic

perormance relative to its peers isexpected to continue to attract a highlevel o immigrants (net internationalmigration) Total net migration is

orecast to reach 259100 people in2013 up rom an estimated 257695in 2012 and above the 10-year

average o about 238800 peopleNet migration is expected to increaseurther to 262450 in 2014

High levels o net migrationby historical standards will helpsupport Canadarsquos housing sector

New migrants typically enter therental market beore moving to

homeownership Migration is expectedto be supportive o demand or

multi-amily housing more specicallypurpose-built rental apartments andrental condominium units over theprojection horizon The high levels

o net migration in the last ew yearswill continue to support multi-amilyhousing over the orecast horizon

particularly rom the relatively highernumbers o migrants to Canada

since 2008

Mtgag ats t s mdstand gadal ncass latn th fcast hzn

t ll man l yhstcal standads

In line with the consensus amongprivate-sector orecasters increasesin the Target Overnight Rate by theBank o Canada are not anticipated

beore mid-2014 This interest rateoutlook has not changed rom the2013 second quarter Housing Market

Outlook and will continue to besupportive o housing market activity

over the orecast horizon

Mortgage rates are expected toincrease gradually and steadily over

the orecast horizon By the end o

2014 mortgage rates are orecastto be somewhat higher than in the

second quarter o 2013 Howeverthese rates will remain low byhistorical standards

According to CMHCrsquos base casescenario or 2013 the one-yearmortgage rate is orecast to be within300 per cent to 350 per cent with

an average o 312 per cent whilethe ve-year posted mortgage rate is

anticipated to be within 500 per centto 550 per cent with an average o 525 per cent For 2014 the one-yearposted mortgage rate is expected torise and be in the 325 per cent to

375 per cent range with an averageo 344 per cent while the ve-yearposted mortgage rate is orecast to be

within 525 per cent to 600 per centwith an average o 562 per centconsistent with higher economic

growth prospects in 2014

Vacancy ats t man stalv th fcast hzn

The average rental apartment vacancy

rate in Canadarsquos 35 major centresis expected to decline slightly to25 per cent by October 2013 rom26 per cent in October 2012 It is

expected to remain at this level inOctober 20147

Most centres saw higher vacancyrates in October 2012 than inOctober 2011 according to CMHCrsquos

7 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

all 2012 Rental Market SurveyImproving economic conditions in

the second hal o 2013 and 2014are expected in part to providegreater support to rental demandover the orecast horizon leading

to the slight decline in vacancyrates that is expected in 2013and 2014

CMHCrsquos all 2012 Rental MarketSurvey also covered condominiumapartments oered or rent in

11 major centres8 Vacancy rates orrental condominiums essentially heldsteady in most centres rom October2011 including Montreal Toronto

Edmonton Winnipeg and Vancouver

Typically the vacancy rates or rentalcondominiums are higher than

vacancy rates or purpose-builtrental apartments

Low vacancy rates o purpose-builtrental apartments over the orecast

horizon are expected to helpsupport multiple-unit housingconstruction particularly in 2014through the expansion o the rental

condominium market

rsks t th otlk This outlook is subject to somerisks including

Mortgage interest rates are still

near their historical low Shouldmortgage interest rates risesooner or aster than expected

by potential buyers and existingmortgage holders this could

lead to a lower level o activityin Canadarsquos housing market and

generate some nancial risksor the more heavily indebtedhomeowner households in the

medium to longer term

Despite recent improvements inthe growth o household credit

elevated levels o household debtand house prices in some urbancentres have made the countryrsquoseconomy more vulnerable to

some economic shocks I interestrates or unemployment were toincrease sharply and signicantly

some o the more heavily indebtedhouseholds could be orced toliquidate some o their assetsincluding their home This could

put downward pressure on houseprices and more generally onhousing market activity Althoughthis risk can arise in the shorter

term its impact would not be

immediate on most indebtedhouseholds because o the

prevalence o xed mortgageterms

Recent levels o units under

construction may impact theinventory o completed andunabsorbed units in the short tomedium term Should the inventory

o new units increase inordinatelybuilders may delay or reduce the

size o some construction projectsThis could lead to a sharper-than-expected moderation in unit starts

A more protracted European

crisis or a more muted recoveryin the US or weaker growth inemerging markets could negatively

impact Canadarsquos net exports andthe countryrsquos overall economicoutlook A stronger-than-expectedUS economic recovery or

stronger growth in emergingcountries could positively impactCanadian economic growthcontributing to a higher level

o activity in Canadarsquos housingmarkets

8 CMHCrsquos Rental Market Survey covers condominium apartments oered or rent in Victoria Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Regina Saskatoon Winnipeg TorontoOttawa Montreacuteal and Queacutebec

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

td gc

Ky facts and th ffcts n hsng stats

Mtgag ats Mortgage rates are expected to increase gradually and steadily over the orecast horizon

However they will remain low by historical standards Current mortgage rates are supportiveo housing demand

emplymnt The labour market has gotten o to a slower than expected start in 2013 with employmentgrowing in the rst six months at a little over hal the rate in 2011 and 2012 Neverthelessemployment is expected to improve during the course o the year and is orecast to grow14 per cent in both 2013 and 2014 which will support Canadarsquos housing sector

incm Growth in incomes is expected to continue albeit at a moderate pace on account o modesteconomic growth in Canada and global markets As a result income growth will remainsupportive o housing demand over the orecast horizon

Nt mgatn Canadarsquos economy is expected to continue to perorm well relative to its peer countries

Canada should thereore continue to attract a high level o immigrants (net internationalmigration) over the orecast horizon which will support housing demand in the medium tolong term

Pplatn9 Lower population growth among the 25 to 34 year age group is expected to lead to a slightmoderation in demand rom rst-time home buyers this year and over the longer termFurthermore Canadarsquos low birth rate should lessen the demand or additional housing stock inthe medium and longer term Population aging however is likely to impact the type and tenureo housing demanded

rsal makt Resale market conditions or 2013 and 2014 are expected to be balanced in most local marketsNevertheless some price momentum will see the average MLSreg price grow roughly in line with

infation in 2013 and 2014Vacancy ats10 The average vacancy rates o purpose-built rental apartments across Canadarsquos metropolitan

centres is expected to decline slightly to 25 per cent in 2013 and remain at that level in 2014Lower vacancy rates or purpose-built rental apartments over the orecast horizon are expectedto help support multiple-unit housing construction particularly in 2014 through the expansiono the rental condominium market

Stck f nand nccpdnts

The stock o unabsorbed new housing units has been stable in the second quarter o 2013indicating continued strength in demand or newly completed homes In addition the ratio o thestock o unabsorbed new units to population a simple gauge to assess potential over-building isclose to the historical average Nevertheless should the inventory increase inordinately buildersmay delay or reduce the size o some housing projects This could lead to a sharper-than-

expected moderation

9 Demographic orecasts are based on Statistics Canadarsquos medium-growth population projection

10 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

btsh Clma

ovv

British Columbiarsquos economy is orecastto expand 19 per cent in 2013 and25 per cent in 2014 slightly ahead o the national average Modest growth

in consumer spending and businessinvestment are expected to contributeto economic growth Population and

employment growth are orecast tohelp increase consumer spendingwhile a weaker Canadian dollar andincreasing demand rom the US is

expected to boost provincial exportsGrowth in exports will supportbusiness investment

British Columbiarsquos labour marketconditions are orecast to improvein 2014 with employment growth

increasing to 15 per cent next yearrom 04 per cent in 2013 This yearrsquosshit to higher levels o ull-timeemployment will carry over into 2014

An increase in ull-time employmentwill support wage growth andhomeownership demand

Demographic trends support arising level o housing demand inthe province Migration rom other

countries partly oset by peoplemoving to other provinces isexpected to add 38000 people thisyear and 41300 people next year

As well population projections byage group indicate a larger number o people in the 25 to 44 year age range

which has traditionally contributedto rst-time home buyer demand11

Population growth in this age rangeis projected to increase rom

11 per cent in 2012 to 18 per centby 2017 up rom less than one percent per annum during the previous

ve-year period The resulting growth

in population combined with strongeremployment growth will push housingsales and starts higher next year

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached startsare projected to rise to 9000 units in

2013 and 9900 units in 2014 Growthin demand or new single-detachedhomes will shit rom urban to rural

BC in 2014 refecting both lowerland costs and rising resource sectoremployment

Multiple Starts British Columbiarsquosmulti-amily starts will ease slightlyto 18100 units in 2013 due to risinginventories and increased competition

rom a well-supplied resale market orcondominium apartments Multi-amilystarts are orecast to edge higher in

2014 increasing to 18700 units as

demand strengthens and inventorieso new completed and unoccupiedunits are drawn lower Multi-amily

construction in the province has beensupported by low vacancy rates inthe rental sector and demand rom

buyers seeking less costly and lowermaintenance alternatives to single-detached housing Expect smallerphased projects to continue to get

under way in housing markets outsideo Vancouver with an increase inlarger multi-amily projects starting

construction in Vancouver includingseveral intended or the rental market

Resales MLSreg sales are orecast to

increase to 70100 in 2013 and 77000in 2014 Demand will be broad-baseduelled by rising employment coupled

with low interest rates ample supplyand stable prices

Prices Expect rising new listings in line

with stronger existing home sales tokeep price growth in check this yearand next The average residential MLSreg

price in British Columbia is orecast to

edge higher with projected increases

below the pace o consumer priceinfation The average price is orecast

at $518300 in 2013 and $523200in 2014

British Columbia Starts (000s)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 27100 or 2013 and 28600 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 26400-27800 units or 2013 and 25700-31500 or 2014

Figure 1

11 BC Stats population projections show annual growth o the 25 to 44 year age category adding on average 18700 persons this year and next Source PEOPLE2012 CMHC calculations

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Alta

ovv

Flooding in Alberta during the montho June damaged many homes and

businesses as well as inrastructureWhile the ull extent o the economic

damage will not be determinedor some time it is expected thatthe fooding will have a short-termnegative impact on economic activity

in 2013 However Albertarsquos real GDPwill still increase by 20 per cent asother actors such as investments in

the energy industry will help keepoverall growth positive Looking aheadfood remediation expenditures and

related activities will provide a boostto the economy helping Albertarsquos realGDP increase by 30 in 2014

Fundamental drivers o housingsuch as household ormationpopulation and employment growthwill continue to propel Albertarsquos

housing markets over the orecasthorizon Employment is projectedto increase by 20 per cent in2013 and 21 per cent in 2014

An expanding labour orce will keepthe unemployment rate around46 per cent through 2014 Tight

labour market conditions and risingwages will continue to be a draw ormigrants and support housing demand

The population o Alberta increasedby over 3 per cent in 2012 andis expected to continue to grow

substantially supported by migrationNet migration to Alberta is projected

to remain elevated at 75900 in 2013and 63000 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached stars

are projected to rise to 18200 unitsin 2013 and to 18900 units in 2014The rising level o sales in the resale

market is supportive o new homeconstruction as some buyers will look to new construction to meet their

needs Some food damaged homeswill be demolished and replaced butmost o the housing that is currently

being built or food impactedhouseholds is temporary As theoundation or temporary housingis not permanent those units will

not be counted as a housing start

Multiple Starts Multi-amily startsare orecast at 15600 units in 2013

and 15500 units in 2014 O Albertarsquosseven largest centres only Calgaryis projected to experience a decline

in multi-amily starts in 2013 atershowing an elevated level o activityin 2012 In 2014 multi-amily starts inEdmonton are expected to decline

ater two consecutive years o strong production The changes in

production in Edmonton and Calgaryare expected to somewhat oset each

other and keep multi-amily startsrelatively stable over the orecastperiod

Resales Infows o migrants andull-time job growth are increasinghousing demand and liting MLSreg sales

which are projected to increase to62700 in 2013 and to 64200 in 2014Flooding in Alberta has impacted

some real estate markets some to alarger extent than others howeverreal estate activity is expected to

normalize with time

Prices The average MLSreg pricein Alberta is orecast to increase

36 per cent to $376300 in 2013 and

then rise 24 per cent to $385300in 2014 Higher demand relative tosupply is putting upward pressure

on prices and real estate valuesare projected to increase over theorecast period

Alberta Starts (000s)

0

5

10

15

2025

30

35

40

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 2

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 33800 or 2013 and 34400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 33000-34600 units or 2013 and 30800-38000 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Saskatchan

ovv

Saskatchewanrsquos real GDP is projectedto increase by 21 per cent in

2013 and by 28 per cent in 2014Economic growth in Saskatchewan is

expected to remain strong relativeto other provinces through 2014Saskatchewanrsquos international exportsare increasing this year as rising

exports o agricultural and mineralproducts have been more thanosetting a decline in energy products

Consumer spending will continue togrow supported by population andwage growth

Saskatchewanrsquos labour market willcontinue to grow with its expandingeconomy Employment is projected

to increase by 29 per cent in 2013and then by 17 per cent in 2014Employment gains are not currentlybeing met by a commensurate

increase in the labour orce and thisis keeping the unemployment ratelow is some parts o SaskatchewanThe unemployment rate at the

provincial level is orecast at 42 percent in 2013 and 43 per cent in 2014Saskatchewanrsquos unemployment rate

will remain the lowest o all provincesover the orecast period

Net migration to Saskatchewan

is projected to reach 11900 in2013 and 12100 in 2014 The vastmajority o Saskatchewanrsquos gains will

come rom international migrationInterprovincial migration is projected

to remain positive over the orecastperiod as economic opportunities

draw migrants rom other parts o Canada New household ormationand housing demand will continueto be supported by migration to

Saskatchewan but not to the sameextent as in 2012

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached startswill moderate to 4100 units in 2013

as high inventory levels continueto slow the pace o initiating newprojects While demand or newsingle-detached homes will remain

elevated the slower pace o absorptions at completion will bea constraining actor on starts this

year A slight increase to 4200 unitsis expected in 2014

Multiple Starts Following an increase

to 4797 units in 2012 multi-amilystarts are projected to decline to3400 units in 2013 due to risinginventory With absorptions lagging

completions this year inventory isrising and will motivate home buildersto scale back production o multi-

amily units Multi-amily starts are

expected to edge higher in 2014to 3500 units

Resales MLSreg sales in Saskatchewanare orecast to moderate to13200 units in 2013 due to lower

net migration and rise modestlyto 13400 units in 2014 While theelevated number o 13950 resales in

2012 will not be surpassed over theorecast period MLSreg sales will remainelevated by historical standards

Prices The average MLSreg price inSaskatchewan is projected to rise to$288000 in 2013 rom $274268 in

2012 Balanced market conditionsover the orecast period are expectedto increase the average MLSreg price to$294100 in 2014

Saskatchewan Starts (000s)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7500 or 2013 and 7700 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 7300-7700 units or 2013 and

6900-8500 or 2014

Figure 3

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1033

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Manta

ovv

Manitobarsquos real GDP growth isprojected at 19 per cent in 2013

and 20 per cent in 2014 Capitalinvestment expenditures in the utility

sector mining oil and gas as wellas the manuacturing industry areexpected to be drivers o economicgrowth Expected stronger economic

growth in the United States in 2014may increase international tradebeyond the single digit growth

experienced thus ar in 2013

Economic activity in Manitoba is

projected to generate employmentgrowth o 10 per cent in 2013 and13 per cent in 2014 Manitobarsquoslabour orce is expected to increase

at a similar rate helping to keep theunemployment rate lower than thenational average and relatively stableat 53 per cent in 2013 and 2014

Net migration in Manitoba a keydriver o population growth and

housing demand is orecast to reach

8600 people in 2013 and edgelower to 8500 people in 2014 TheProvincial Nominee Program will

continue to encourage migrants torelocate to Manitoba and internationalmigration is expected to be a primarydriver o population growth and

new household ormation Howeverinternational gains will be reducedby interprovincial outfows primarily

to Alberta

in Dtal

Single Starts Manitobarsquos single-

detached housing starts are expectedto remain elevated at 4000 units in2013 and 4100 units in 2014 Wage

growth near infation and employmentgains will support demand or newhomes moving orward On the other

hand moderating net migration andrising supply levels will keep single-detached starts near the 4000 unitlevel over the orecast period

Multiple Starts Multi-amily startsare projected to slightly surpass

2012rsquos production and reach3100 units in 2013 Low vacancyrates across the province havesupported construction in the

rental sector Meanwhile demandor condominiums is being uelled byrst-time buyers and empty-nestersWith a growing number o units

under construction builders will easeproduction to 2900 units in 2014

Resales MLSreg sales are orecast tomoderate rom last yearrsquos record to13600 in 2013 beore reboundingslightly to 13700 in 2014 The move-

up buying segment o the market will

be supported by home equity gainsrom rising real estate values Demand

will also be bolstered by populationgrowth and employment gainsHowever these will be counteredby increased mortgage carrying

costs keeping sales below the2012 peak o 14008

Prices The average residential MLSreg price in Manitoba is orecast to riseto $256600 in 2013 ollowed by anincrease to $263000 in 2014 Slower

sales combined with a slight increasein new listings will result in a higherinventory o active listings particularly

in Winnipeg This will help to easesellersrsquo market conditions in Winnipegand reduce upward pressure on pricegrowth over the orecast period

Manitoba Starts (000s)

0

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7100 or 2013 and 7000 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 6900-7300 units or 2013 and

6300-7700 or 2014

Figure 4

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1133

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

onta

ovv

Ontariorsquos economy will grow at amodest pace o 15 per cent this year

beore gaining momentum in 2014with growth o 26 per cent Next

year would be the rst time in over adecade that Ontario outpaces overallgrowth in Canada Consumer andpublic sector spending will contribute

less to economic growth Insteadimproving business investmentnon-residential construction and

trade will drive Ontariorsquos economysupported in part by a relativelycheaper Canadian dollar According

to consensus among Canadianorecasters the US economy isexpected to gain strength againstother global economies by 2014

This is expected to support Ontariorsquostrade sector

Ontario employment growth will

strengthen to 17 per cent by nextyear and will ollow in the ootstepso an improving economy Ontariorsquosunemployment rate will decline

relative to most other provinceswhich will support a stronger paceo income growth in 2014

As Ontario gradually closes theeconomic growth gap with otherregions migratory outfows to

other parts o Canada will lessenSimilarly international migration willprovide some underlying support to

population growth as Ontariorsquos shareo international migration moves

higher and closer to historic normsNet migration to Ontario will

rise rom 83100 people to over93600 people in 2014

Against the improving backdrop

Ontario residential constructionwill slow down this year beorestabilizing in 2014 Starts will decline

to 58600 units in 2013 beorereaching 59400 units next yearResale activity will hold up betterover the orecast horizon but

will not reach the peak o 2007Modest job growth relative to therecent past better supplied resale

markets and a high level o apartmentunits under construction will restraingrowth in housing starts over theorecast horizon

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached starts

are orecast at 23000 and 23900units in 2013 and 2014 respectivelyLow inventories o unsold homesand tighter resale market conditions

will allow detached construction topost some growth over the orecasthorizon relative to higher density

housing construction

Multiple Starts Multi-amily homeconstruction will slow to 35600 units

this year beore stabilizing at 35500units in 2014 Apartment starts willalso moderate in 2013 as apartment

demand slows beore stabilizingin 2014 More choice in the resalemarket will dampen demand or

new condominiums Furthermore ahigh level o apartment units underconstruction is generating capacityconstraints or the industry - making

it dicult or new projects tocommence construction

Resales Existing home sales willreach 195400 units this year justshy o 2012 levels Ater trendinglower since the spring o 2012

existing home sales have stabilizedand are expected to graduallyimprove over the orecast horizon

reaching 202800 units in 2014More condominium completionscoupled with the resale marketrsquosprice advantage will provide more

choice to potential home buyers

Prices A balanced Ontario resale

market suggests prices will grow inline with the general rate o infation

over the orecast horizon In additionshiting preerences rom expensive

to inexpensive housing will also exertdownward pressure on average pricesover the next ew years Ontarioaverage home prices will grow to

$397400 and $404400 in 2013and 2014 respectively

Ontario Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 58600 or 2013 and 59400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 57000-60200 units or 2013 and

53200-65600 or 2014

Figure 5

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1233

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Qc

ovv

In Quebec relatively slow economicand employment growth will reduce

demand o existing and new homesthis year Easing resale markets and

relatively high inventories o newdwellings will signicantly lowerhousing starts in 2013 Nonethelessdemographic trends will support

housing demand into 2014 at whichtime a strengthening economy andtightening resale markets will energize

both the resale and new housingmarkets

On the economic ront Quebecrsquoslabour markets still eel the impacts o a slow recovery south o the borderand o more avourable employment

prospects in western Canada Whilebusiness investment has increasedsolidly rms have ocused on xedcapital rather than on hiring For this

reason employment will progress at arelatively slow pace in 2013 and 2014(14 per cent each year) Meanwhilepublic and consumer spending have

increased moderately while exportlevels remained stable GDP growth o between 15 and 22 per cent growth

is expected during the orecasthorizon

Demographic trends will continue

to support the provincersquos housingmarkets in the next two yearsSustained immigration to the province

will still have a positive impact ondemand in the rental market as

fows are expected to remain stableover the orecast horizon Total

net migration is expected to reachrespectively 44700 and 45300persons in 2013 and 2014 Whilemoderating demand rom younger

households cools rst-time buyingpopulation aging will prompt some

older households to re-enter themarket in response to their evolvinghousing needs

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 moderate jobgrowth the continued easing o the

resale market which is expectedto attract a greater part o housingdemand and the trend toward multi-amily dwelling will contribute to

reduce single starts and translateinto a total o 13700 single-detachedhomes started In 2014 a tighter

resale market will bring some supportto the new housing market segmentwhich is expected to result in14100 single starts

Multiple Starts The trend towardthe multi-amily market segment is

explained by its relative aordability

the changing needs o an agingpopulation and by densicationtrends Fuelled by the popularity o

condominium apartments supply inthis market segment has increasedsignicantly As a result o threeyears o sustained construction rom

2010 to 2012 market conditions inthis market have eased signicantly

Starts o multi-amily dwellings willthus decrease considerably this yearMultiple starts will descend below the25000 level in 2013 and rise to the

25700 mark in 2014

Resales While holding steady in 2012

sales recorded by Centrisreg12 havebeen recently declining as a resulto the overall economic contextdiscussed previously Despite a certain

rebound expected in the secondhal o this year resales will come inat a lower level this year For 2013

73000 such transactions are orecastAs buying conditions improve totalresales will be back in growth modenext year In total 75700 Centrisreg

sales are orecast or 2014

Prices Relatively lower demand orresale homes combined with rising

supply has taken pressure o price

growth in recent quarters and shouldcontinue to do so throughout this

coming year With a return to morebalanced conditions price growthin the resale market will continueto moderate in 2013 The average

price recorded by Centrisreg will reach$269100 in 2013 and $272000next year

Quebec Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 38500 or 2013 and 39800 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 37500-39500 units or 2013 and 35600-44000 or 2014

Figure 6

12 The Centrisreg system contains all the listings o Quebec real estate brokers

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1333

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

N bnsck

ovv

GDP growth is expected to remainweak over the orecast period with

03 per cent growth orecast or theprovince in 2013 and 10 per cent in

2014 The current weakness stemsrom a reduction in capital investmentThe natural resources sector a keydriver or economic growth in the

province is also expected to postmixed results in 2013

New Brunswick labour marketconditions will remain relatively sotas employment growth is projected

to decline 04 per cent in 2013 andrise 05 per cent in 2014 Slow growthin the labour orce will leave theunemployment rate at 108 per cent

over the next two years

The economic prospects or theprovince are also being held back by

slower population growth and risingout-migration Net migration is notexpected to improve signicantly

in 2013 or 2014 as international

migration is expected to remain weak and interprovincial migration althoughnot as negative as the level reported

in 2012 will not turn positive over theorecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts Rising out-migrationin some centres combined withweakened employment conditions

will have a dampening eect on

housing market activity in 2013 and2014 Single starts are orecast todecline to 1200 units in 2013 and

to 1100 units in 2014

Multiple Starts Stronger building

activity in the rental market duringthe past three years particularlyin Moncton and Fredericton hasresulted in rising vacancy rates

With an expectation that vacancyrates in New Brunswickrsquos three largesturban centers will continue to risein 2013 and 2014 developers are

expected to become more cautiousleading to a reduction in apartmentstarts As a result multiple starts areexpected to decline to 1300 units

in 2013 with a urther decline to1050 units in 2014

Resales Overall market conditionscontinue to benet potential homebuyers in 2013 as many segmentso the market have shited towards

buyerrsquos market conditions Withexpected declines in employmentin 2013 and rising out-migrationdemand is not expected to increase

substantially over the orecast periodConsequently MLSreg sales shoulddecline to 6000 units in 2013 with a

urther decline to 5800 in 2014

Prices The inventory o availablehomes is expected to remain at

historically high levels in NewBrunswickrsquos large urban centresin 2013 and 2014 This will impact

the level o price growth The MLSreg average price is expected to decreaseto $161000 in 2013 and again to$160500 in 2014

New Brunswick Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 2500 or 2013 and 2150 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2175-2825 units or 2013 and

1500-2800 or 2014

Figure 7

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1433

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nva Scta

ovv

The province o Nova Scotia isexpected to record economic

growth o 10 per cent in 2013 and15 per cent in 2014 Economic

conditions are expected to slowlyimprove over the orecast periodHaliaxrsquos shipbuilding industry willadd to growth as current and uture

construction repair and maintenanceprojects are expected to createeconomic activity over the short

and medium term The energy sectorwill add to provincial production inthe second hal o 2013The benets

o a lower Canadian dollar will also beelt by companies exporting materialsand goods

Nova Scotia labour market conditionswill remain stable in 2013 asemployment growth is projected torise 04 per cent this year compared

to growth o 06 per cent in 2012In 2014 the rise in growth will be to09 per cent as a result o a moderaterise in private sector investment

activity A similar level in the growtho the labour orce in 2013 and 2014will leave the unemployment rate

close to 90 per cent in both years

For 2013 interprovincial migration willmoderate to close to 4000 people

as was reported in 2012 The level o interprovincial migration will remainnegative in 2014 at close to -2000

people The level o internationalmigration will drop close to -2000 in

2013 and -1350 in 2014 As a resultnet-migration will remain negative at

-2000 in 2013 and -750 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 modestemployment growth and shitingconsumer demand will result in a

decline in single-detached startsto 1840 units For 2014 expecteconomic growth to stimulatedemand in the new homes market

resulting in a rise to 1975 single-detached starts in the province

Multiple Starts The provincialmulti-amily segment o themarket will continue to be drivenby apartment-style rental unit

construction most o which will takeplace in Haliax Demand or rentalhousing will be largely driven by anaging population base that is looking

to downsize or move to one-foorliving accommodations Expect semi-detached and row units to also remain

a popular alternative over the orecastperiod or rst-time home buyersMultiple starts will total 2185 unitsin 2013 beore declining to 2100

starts in 2014

Resales Following a slight increase

in 2012 MLSreg sales will decline in2013 to 9300 units In 2014 expecta smaller decline in provincialnet migration and an improving

employment outlook to result ina small reversal in MLSreg sales to9600 units

Prices The average sale price o anexisting home in Nova Scotia climbed37 per cent in 2012 to $220413In 2013 reduced demand will shit

market conditions towards a buyerrsquosmarket resulting in slowing pricegrowth o 07 per cent to $222000

In 2014 prices will increase to$226000 as improving economicactors will result in better marketconditions

Nova Scotia Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 4025 or 2013 and 4075 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 3525-4525 units or 2013 and 3075-5075 or 2014

Figure 8

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Pnc edad

island

ovv

Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic

growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent

declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the

prospects or manuacturing andexports

Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support

the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth

o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment

rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon

The economic prospects or the

province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012

Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about

500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts The slowdown in

population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units

in 2014

Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a

continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise

in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply

o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014

Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will

impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014

Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will

also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be

$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014

Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is

refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014

Figure 9

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nfndland and

Laad

ovv

Newoundland and Labrador will see

a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise

to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil

production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related

private sector investment activity

One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness

in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador

Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth

is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the

rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the

unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years

Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over

the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population

growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in

2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but

the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period

in Dtal

Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and

2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single

starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity

is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single

starts in 2014

Multiple Starts Multiple unit

construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast

period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014

Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a

decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to

improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net

migration increases

Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels

elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average

MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000

in 2014

Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)

00

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and

2200-3600 or 2014

Figure 10

13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Canada Starts (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 11

The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

3 6 0 6

3 4 8 8

3 8 8 5

3 0 5 0

2 9 0 0

2 7 2 6

3 0 6 9

3 4 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 8 0 0

3 3 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 8 0

- 3 3

1 1 4

- 2 1 5

- 4 9

- 2 4 7

1 2 6

1 0 8

- 1 1 8

- 6 7

1 7 9

- 9 1

- 1 6 7

P E I

7 5 6

9 4 0

9 4 1

8 0 0

7 0 0

9 2 0

7 5 7

7 7 5

7 5 5

6 5 0

7 4 0

7 4 5

6 6 5

- 1 3 8

2 4 3

0 1

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 5

- 4 0

- 1 7 7

2 4

- 2 6

- 1 3 9

1 3 8

0 7

- 1 0 7

N S

4 3 0 9

4 6 4 4

4 5 2 2

4 0 2 5

4 0 7 5

4 6 1 1

3 4 5 6

4 1 5 0

3 8 5 0

3 6 0 0

4 5 0 0

4 3 0 0

3 9 0 0

2 5 3

7 8

- 2 6

- 1 1 0

1 2

- 1 1 0

- 2 5 0

2 0 1

- 7 2

- 6 5

2 5 0

- 4 4

- 9 3

N B

4 1 0 1

3 4 5 2

3 2 9 9

2 5 0 0

2 1 5 0

3 4 2 9

2 9 0 4

1 9 0 0

1 7 7 5

1 7 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 6 5

-

1 5 8

- 4 4

- 2 4 2

- 1 4 0

1 6 3

- 1 5 3

- 3 4 6

- 6 6

- 4 2

4 1 2

4 2

- 2 0 0

Q U E

5 1 3 6 3

4 8 3 8 7

4 7 3 6 7

3 8 5 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 5 9 2 6

3 8 1 0 4

3 9 8 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

3 9 7 5 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

1 8 3

- 5 8

- 2 1

- 1 8 7

3 4

- 2 0 3

6 1

4 5

0 5

- 0 6

0 1

0 0

0 0

O N T

6 0 4 3 3

6 7 8 2 1

7 6 7 4 2

5 8 6 0 0

5 9 4 0 0

5 6 7 1 5

5 7 9 3 1

5 9 4 5 0

6 0 2 5 0

6 0 8 0 0

6 0 2 0 0

5 9 0 0 0

5 7 7 0 0

2 0 0

1 2 2

1 3 2

- 2 3 6

1 4

- 1 8 2

2 1

2 6

1 3

0 9

- 1 0

- 2 0

- 2 2

M A N

5 8 8 8

6 0 8 3

7 2 4 2

7 1 0 0

7 0 0 0

6 8 1 0

7 3 8 2

7 0 0 0

7 1 0 0

7 1 0 0

6 8 0 0

6 9 0 0

7 0 0 0

4 1 1

3 3

1 9 1

- 2 0

- 1 4

6 1

8 4

- 5 2

1 4

0 0

- 4 2

1 5

1 4

S A S K

5 9 0 7

7 0 3 1

9 9 6 8

7 5 0 0

7 7 0 0

6 5 5 8

7 4 9 7

7 9 0 0

8 0 0 0

7 6 0 0

7 9 0 0

7 7 0 0

7 6 0 0

5 2 8

1 9 0

4 1 8

- 2 4 8

2 7

- 4 0 7

1 4 3

5 4

1 3

- 5 0

3 9

- 2 5

- 1 3

A L T A

2 7 0 8 8

2 5 7 0 4

3 3 3 9 6

3 3 8 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 3 7 2 5

3 9 1 6 2

3 1 4 0 0

3 0 9 0 0

3 4 0 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 4 2 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 3 5

- 5 1

2 9 9

1 2

1 8

- 2 2

1 6 1

- 1 9 8

- 1 6

1 0 0

1 2

- 0 6

2 3

B C

2 6 4 7 9

2 6 4 0 0

2 7 4 6 5

2 7 1 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 4 0 3 6

2 5 2 7 3

2 9 5 0 0

2 9 5 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 3 0 0

6 4 7

- 0 3

4 0

- 1 3

5 5

- 1 8

5 1

1 6 7

0 0

- 2 7

- 0 3

0 3

- 1 4

C A N

1 8 9 9 3 0

1 9 3 9 5 0

2 1 4 8 2 7

1 8 2 8 0 0

1 8 6 6 0 0

1 7 5 4 5 6

1 8 5 5 3 5

1 8 5 3 0 0

1 8 5 1 0 0

1 8 6 7 0 0

1 8 8 6 0 0

1

8 6 8 0 0

1 8 4 5 0 0

2 7 4

2 1

1 0 8

- 1 4 9

2 1

- 1 3 8

5 7

- 0 1

- 0 1

0 8

1 0

- 1 0

- 1 3

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1

8 8 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6

0 0 - 2

0 7 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8

0 0 u n

i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 3: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 333

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

economic conditions relatively lowvacancy rates or rental units andstronger net migration in 2014

It also refects the expectation thatbuilders will want to keep inventorylevels in check despite the large

number o units under construction

The ratio o newly completed andunabsorbed multi-amily housing

units per 10000 population5 stoodat 34 units in the second quartero 2013 barely above the historical

average o 33 units

Multi-amily starts are expectedto range between 102000 and

108600 units in 2013 and between

94300 and 117900 units in 2014

MLS reg sals t dcln n 2013

Existing home sales are expectedto decline in 2013 but rise alongwith economic conditions in 2014

MLSreg sales are expected to berestrained this year partly as a resulto demographic actors including

lower population growth among the25 to 34 year age group which will

moderate growth in the pool o rst-time home buyers Weaker

economic conditions and employmentgrowth over the rst hal o theyear are also expected to curbsales growth this year

In 2014 improving economicconditions and past elevated levels

o net migration are expected tosupport renewed growth in MLSreg sales Following a level o 453372

sales in 2012 CMHCrsquos point orecastsare 448900 MLSreg sales or 2013 and467600 or 2014 MLSreg sales areexpected to be between 431600 and466200 units in 2013 and between

437700 and 497500 units in 2014

balancd makt cndtnsxpctd t pval v fcast hzn

Canadarsquos existing home market hasbeen in balanced market conditionssince 2010 although the sales-to-new

listings ratio an indicator o marketconditions has generally trended closeto the threshold between balancedand sellerrsquos market conditions

throughout this period

Balanced market conditions areexpected to prevail in most local

housing markets leading to an averageMLSreg price that grows roughly in linewith infation in 2013 and 2014

CMHCrsquos point orecast or theaverage MLSreg price is $374800in 2013 and $382800 in 2014

representing increases o 27 percent and 21 per cent respectivelyThe average MLSreg price is orecast tobe between $369100 and $380500

in 2013 and between $371700 and$393900 in 2014

Pvncal smmay

All provinces will see lower housingstarts in 2013 except or Alberta

The lower housing starts refectexpectations that employment netmigration and gross domestic product(GDP) growth although they remain

supportive o the Canadian housingmarket will not likely sustain the samelevel o housing starts as in 2012

Housing starts are moderatingrelatively less in the Western

provinces than in Central CanadaIn 2014 housing starts are alsoexpected to rebound strongerin Western provinces than thenational average

Improving undamentals includingemployment and economic growth

will help support a modest reboundin housing starts in 2014 in BritishColumbia Alberta SaskatchewanOntario Quebec and Nova Scotia

However Manitoba and most o theAtlantic provinces will again see lowerhousing starts in 2014

Most provinces are also expectedto see lower MLSreg sales in 2013although Alberta and British Columbia

are expected to experience modestgains British Columbia is recoveringrom a decline in sales activity in 2012while Alberta will see sales activity

grow moderately ater strong sales

growth in 2012 In 2014 MLS

reg

salesare expected to increase in all regions

except Prince Edward Island andNew Brunswick

In 2013 it is expected that growth

in average MLSreg home prices willoutpace the rate o infation in thePrairies Ontario and Newoundland

and Labrador Average MLSreg homeprices are expected to be generallyin line with the outlook or infation

in 2014 with the exception o the Prairies which will see pricegrowth above the national average(see pages 7 to 16 or the detailedprovincial outlooks)

Tnds impactngHsng6

GDP gth mansspptv

In accordance with the consensusamong prominent Canadian economicorecasters growth in GDP is orecast

at 17 per cent in 2013 beore

5 The level o inventories o single-detached units is measured as the ratio o such completed and unabsorbed housing units per 10000 population

6 CMHC uses publicly available inormation and the consensus among major Canadian orecasters regarding economic assumptions

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 433

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

strengthening to 24 per cent in2014 This compares to GDP growth

estimate o 17 per cent in 2012

The orecast or Canadian GDPgrowth in 2013 was revised up

slightly since the 2013 second quarter

Housing Market Outlook largelyrefecting upward revisions to growth

in industrial production Exportsare projected to gather momentumcoupled with continued growth inconsumer spending Business xed

investment is expected to strengthenas the recovery in Canadian exportsbecomes more rmly entrenchedproviding greater condence about

prospects or global demand The

Canadian economy is expected tocontinue to grow in 2013 at the same

pace as in 2012 and will thereoreremain supportive o the housingmarket In 2014 GDP growth willincrease its support to housing market

activity as the economic outlook strengthens

emplymnt t stayspptv

Employment increased by 12 per centin 2012 Based on the consensus

among prominent Canadianorecasters CMHC expects thatemployment will grow by 14 per centin 2013 and in 2014 Despite the slow

growth in employment year-to-dateemployment growth is anticipated toimprove in the second hal o the yearand is expected to sustain moderate

increases in household incomeand household ormation over the

orecast horizon This will in turnsupport the housing market

Hgh nt mgatn

Canadarsquos strong economic

perormance relative to its peers isexpected to continue to attract a highlevel o immigrants (net internationalmigration) Total net migration is

orecast to reach 259100 people in2013 up rom an estimated 257695in 2012 and above the 10-year

average o about 238800 peopleNet migration is expected to increaseurther to 262450 in 2014

High levels o net migrationby historical standards will helpsupport Canadarsquos housing sector

New migrants typically enter therental market beore moving to

homeownership Migration is expectedto be supportive o demand or

multi-amily housing more specicallypurpose-built rental apartments andrental condominium units over theprojection horizon The high levels

o net migration in the last ew yearswill continue to support multi-amilyhousing over the orecast horizon

particularly rom the relatively highernumbers o migrants to Canada

since 2008

Mtgag ats t s mdstand gadal ncass latn th fcast hzn

t ll man l yhstcal standads

In line with the consensus amongprivate-sector orecasters increasesin the Target Overnight Rate by theBank o Canada are not anticipated

beore mid-2014 This interest rateoutlook has not changed rom the2013 second quarter Housing Market

Outlook and will continue to besupportive o housing market activity

over the orecast horizon

Mortgage rates are expected toincrease gradually and steadily over

the orecast horizon By the end o

2014 mortgage rates are orecastto be somewhat higher than in the

second quarter o 2013 Howeverthese rates will remain low byhistorical standards

According to CMHCrsquos base casescenario or 2013 the one-yearmortgage rate is orecast to be within300 per cent to 350 per cent with

an average o 312 per cent whilethe ve-year posted mortgage rate is

anticipated to be within 500 per centto 550 per cent with an average o 525 per cent For 2014 the one-yearposted mortgage rate is expected torise and be in the 325 per cent to

375 per cent range with an averageo 344 per cent while the ve-yearposted mortgage rate is orecast to be

within 525 per cent to 600 per centwith an average o 562 per centconsistent with higher economic

growth prospects in 2014

Vacancy ats t man stalv th fcast hzn

The average rental apartment vacancy

rate in Canadarsquos 35 major centresis expected to decline slightly to25 per cent by October 2013 rom26 per cent in October 2012 It is

expected to remain at this level inOctober 20147

Most centres saw higher vacancyrates in October 2012 than inOctober 2011 according to CMHCrsquos

7 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

all 2012 Rental Market SurveyImproving economic conditions in

the second hal o 2013 and 2014are expected in part to providegreater support to rental demandover the orecast horizon leading

to the slight decline in vacancyrates that is expected in 2013and 2014

CMHCrsquos all 2012 Rental MarketSurvey also covered condominiumapartments oered or rent in

11 major centres8 Vacancy rates orrental condominiums essentially heldsteady in most centres rom October2011 including Montreal Toronto

Edmonton Winnipeg and Vancouver

Typically the vacancy rates or rentalcondominiums are higher than

vacancy rates or purpose-builtrental apartments

Low vacancy rates o purpose-builtrental apartments over the orecast

horizon are expected to helpsupport multiple-unit housingconstruction particularly in 2014through the expansion o the rental

condominium market

rsks t th otlk This outlook is subject to somerisks including

Mortgage interest rates are still

near their historical low Shouldmortgage interest rates risesooner or aster than expected

by potential buyers and existingmortgage holders this could

lead to a lower level o activityin Canadarsquos housing market and

generate some nancial risksor the more heavily indebtedhomeowner households in the

medium to longer term

Despite recent improvements inthe growth o household credit

elevated levels o household debtand house prices in some urbancentres have made the countryrsquoseconomy more vulnerable to

some economic shocks I interestrates or unemployment were toincrease sharply and signicantly

some o the more heavily indebtedhouseholds could be orced toliquidate some o their assetsincluding their home This could

put downward pressure on houseprices and more generally onhousing market activity Althoughthis risk can arise in the shorter

term its impact would not be

immediate on most indebtedhouseholds because o the

prevalence o xed mortgageterms

Recent levels o units under

construction may impact theinventory o completed andunabsorbed units in the short tomedium term Should the inventory

o new units increase inordinatelybuilders may delay or reduce the

size o some construction projectsThis could lead to a sharper-than-expected moderation in unit starts

A more protracted European

crisis or a more muted recoveryin the US or weaker growth inemerging markets could negatively

impact Canadarsquos net exports andthe countryrsquos overall economicoutlook A stronger-than-expectedUS economic recovery or

stronger growth in emergingcountries could positively impactCanadian economic growthcontributing to a higher level

o activity in Canadarsquos housingmarkets

8 CMHCrsquos Rental Market Survey covers condominium apartments oered or rent in Victoria Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Regina Saskatoon Winnipeg TorontoOttawa Montreacuteal and Queacutebec

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

td gc

Ky facts and th ffcts n hsng stats

Mtgag ats Mortgage rates are expected to increase gradually and steadily over the orecast horizon

However they will remain low by historical standards Current mortgage rates are supportiveo housing demand

emplymnt The labour market has gotten o to a slower than expected start in 2013 with employmentgrowing in the rst six months at a little over hal the rate in 2011 and 2012 Neverthelessemployment is expected to improve during the course o the year and is orecast to grow14 per cent in both 2013 and 2014 which will support Canadarsquos housing sector

incm Growth in incomes is expected to continue albeit at a moderate pace on account o modesteconomic growth in Canada and global markets As a result income growth will remainsupportive o housing demand over the orecast horizon

Nt mgatn Canadarsquos economy is expected to continue to perorm well relative to its peer countries

Canada should thereore continue to attract a high level o immigrants (net internationalmigration) over the orecast horizon which will support housing demand in the medium tolong term

Pplatn9 Lower population growth among the 25 to 34 year age group is expected to lead to a slightmoderation in demand rom rst-time home buyers this year and over the longer termFurthermore Canadarsquos low birth rate should lessen the demand or additional housing stock inthe medium and longer term Population aging however is likely to impact the type and tenureo housing demanded

rsal makt Resale market conditions or 2013 and 2014 are expected to be balanced in most local marketsNevertheless some price momentum will see the average MLSreg price grow roughly in line with

infation in 2013 and 2014Vacancy ats10 The average vacancy rates o purpose-built rental apartments across Canadarsquos metropolitan

centres is expected to decline slightly to 25 per cent in 2013 and remain at that level in 2014Lower vacancy rates or purpose-built rental apartments over the orecast horizon are expectedto help support multiple-unit housing construction particularly in 2014 through the expansiono the rental condominium market

Stck f nand nccpdnts

The stock o unabsorbed new housing units has been stable in the second quarter o 2013indicating continued strength in demand or newly completed homes In addition the ratio o thestock o unabsorbed new units to population a simple gauge to assess potential over-building isclose to the historical average Nevertheless should the inventory increase inordinately buildersmay delay or reduce the size o some housing projects This could lead to a sharper-than-

expected moderation

9 Demographic orecasts are based on Statistics Canadarsquos medium-growth population projection

10 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

btsh Clma

ovv

British Columbiarsquos economy is orecastto expand 19 per cent in 2013 and25 per cent in 2014 slightly ahead o the national average Modest growth

in consumer spending and businessinvestment are expected to contributeto economic growth Population and

employment growth are orecast tohelp increase consumer spendingwhile a weaker Canadian dollar andincreasing demand rom the US is

expected to boost provincial exportsGrowth in exports will supportbusiness investment

British Columbiarsquos labour marketconditions are orecast to improvein 2014 with employment growth

increasing to 15 per cent next yearrom 04 per cent in 2013 This yearrsquosshit to higher levels o ull-timeemployment will carry over into 2014

An increase in ull-time employmentwill support wage growth andhomeownership demand

Demographic trends support arising level o housing demand inthe province Migration rom other

countries partly oset by peoplemoving to other provinces isexpected to add 38000 people thisyear and 41300 people next year

As well population projections byage group indicate a larger number o people in the 25 to 44 year age range

which has traditionally contributedto rst-time home buyer demand11

Population growth in this age rangeis projected to increase rom

11 per cent in 2012 to 18 per centby 2017 up rom less than one percent per annum during the previous

ve-year period The resulting growth

in population combined with strongeremployment growth will push housingsales and starts higher next year

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached startsare projected to rise to 9000 units in

2013 and 9900 units in 2014 Growthin demand or new single-detachedhomes will shit rom urban to rural

BC in 2014 refecting both lowerland costs and rising resource sectoremployment

Multiple Starts British Columbiarsquosmulti-amily starts will ease slightlyto 18100 units in 2013 due to risinginventories and increased competition

rom a well-supplied resale market orcondominium apartments Multi-amilystarts are orecast to edge higher in

2014 increasing to 18700 units as

demand strengthens and inventorieso new completed and unoccupiedunits are drawn lower Multi-amily

construction in the province has beensupported by low vacancy rates inthe rental sector and demand rom

buyers seeking less costly and lowermaintenance alternatives to single-detached housing Expect smallerphased projects to continue to get

under way in housing markets outsideo Vancouver with an increase inlarger multi-amily projects starting

construction in Vancouver includingseveral intended or the rental market

Resales MLSreg sales are orecast to

increase to 70100 in 2013 and 77000in 2014 Demand will be broad-baseduelled by rising employment coupled

with low interest rates ample supplyand stable prices

Prices Expect rising new listings in line

with stronger existing home sales tokeep price growth in check this yearand next The average residential MLSreg

price in British Columbia is orecast to

edge higher with projected increases

below the pace o consumer priceinfation The average price is orecast

at $518300 in 2013 and $523200in 2014

British Columbia Starts (000s)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 27100 or 2013 and 28600 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 26400-27800 units or 2013 and 25700-31500 or 2014

Figure 1

11 BC Stats population projections show annual growth o the 25 to 44 year age category adding on average 18700 persons this year and next Source PEOPLE2012 CMHC calculations

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Alta

ovv

Flooding in Alberta during the montho June damaged many homes and

businesses as well as inrastructureWhile the ull extent o the economic

damage will not be determinedor some time it is expected thatthe fooding will have a short-termnegative impact on economic activity

in 2013 However Albertarsquos real GDPwill still increase by 20 per cent asother actors such as investments in

the energy industry will help keepoverall growth positive Looking aheadfood remediation expenditures and

related activities will provide a boostto the economy helping Albertarsquos realGDP increase by 30 in 2014

Fundamental drivers o housingsuch as household ormationpopulation and employment growthwill continue to propel Albertarsquos

housing markets over the orecasthorizon Employment is projectedto increase by 20 per cent in2013 and 21 per cent in 2014

An expanding labour orce will keepthe unemployment rate around46 per cent through 2014 Tight

labour market conditions and risingwages will continue to be a draw ormigrants and support housing demand

The population o Alberta increasedby over 3 per cent in 2012 andis expected to continue to grow

substantially supported by migrationNet migration to Alberta is projected

to remain elevated at 75900 in 2013and 63000 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached stars

are projected to rise to 18200 unitsin 2013 and to 18900 units in 2014The rising level o sales in the resale

market is supportive o new homeconstruction as some buyers will look to new construction to meet their

needs Some food damaged homeswill be demolished and replaced butmost o the housing that is currently

being built or food impactedhouseholds is temporary As theoundation or temporary housingis not permanent those units will

not be counted as a housing start

Multiple Starts Multi-amily startsare orecast at 15600 units in 2013

and 15500 units in 2014 O Albertarsquosseven largest centres only Calgaryis projected to experience a decline

in multi-amily starts in 2013 atershowing an elevated level o activityin 2012 In 2014 multi-amily starts inEdmonton are expected to decline

ater two consecutive years o strong production The changes in

production in Edmonton and Calgaryare expected to somewhat oset each

other and keep multi-amily startsrelatively stable over the orecastperiod

Resales Infows o migrants andull-time job growth are increasinghousing demand and liting MLSreg sales

which are projected to increase to62700 in 2013 and to 64200 in 2014Flooding in Alberta has impacted

some real estate markets some to alarger extent than others howeverreal estate activity is expected to

normalize with time

Prices The average MLSreg pricein Alberta is orecast to increase

36 per cent to $376300 in 2013 and

then rise 24 per cent to $385300in 2014 Higher demand relative tosupply is putting upward pressure

on prices and real estate valuesare projected to increase over theorecast period

Alberta Starts (000s)

0

5

10

15

2025

30

35

40

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 2

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 33800 or 2013 and 34400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 33000-34600 units or 2013 and 30800-38000 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Saskatchan

ovv

Saskatchewanrsquos real GDP is projectedto increase by 21 per cent in

2013 and by 28 per cent in 2014Economic growth in Saskatchewan is

expected to remain strong relativeto other provinces through 2014Saskatchewanrsquos international exportsare increasing this year as rising

exports o agricultural and mineralproducts have been more thanosetting a decline in energy products

Consumer spending will continue togrow supported by population andwage growth

Saskatchewanrsquos labour market willcontinue to grow with its expandingeconomy Employment is projected

to increase by 29 per cent in 2013and then by 17 per cent in 2014Employment gains are not currentlybeing met by a commensurate

increase in the labour orce and thisis keeping the unemployment ratelow is some parts o SaskatchewanThe unemployment rate at the

provincial level is orecast at 42 percent in 2013 and 43 per cent in 2014Saskatchewanrsquos unemployment rate

will remain the lowest o all provincesover the orecast period

Net migration to Saskatchewan

is projected to reach 11900 in2013 and 12100 in 2014 The vastmajority o Saskatchewanrsquos gains will

come rom international migrationInterprovincial migration is projected

to remain positive over the orecastperiod as economic opportunities

draw migrants rom other parts o Canada New household ormationand housing demand will continueto be supported by migration to

Saskatchewan but not to the sameextent as in 2012

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached startswill moderate to 4100 units in 2013

as high inventory levels continueto slow the pace o initiating newprojects While demand or newsingle-detached homes will remain

elevated the slower pace o absorptions at completion will bea constraining actor on starts this

year A slight increase to 4200 unitsis expected in 2014

Multiple Starts Following an increase

to 4797 units in 2012 multi-amilystarts are projected to decline to3400 units in 2013 due to risinginventory With absorptions lagging

completions this year inventory isrising and will motivate home buildersto scale back production o multi-

amily units Multi-amily starts are

expected to edge higher in 2014to 3500 units

Resales MLSreg sales in Saskatchewanare orecast to moderate to13200 units in 2013 due to lower

net migration and rise modestlyto 13400 units in 2014 While theelevated number o 13950 resales in

2012 will not be surpassed over theorecast period MLSreg sales will remainelevated by historical standards

Prices The average MLSreg price inSaskatchewan is projected to rise to$288000 in 2013 rom $274268 in

2012 Balanced market conditionsover the orecast period are expectedto increase the average MLSreg price to$294100 in 2014

Saskatchewan Starts (000s)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7500 or 2013 and 7700 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 7300-7700 units or 2013 and

6900-8500 or 2014

Figure 3

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1033

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Manta

ovv

Manitobarsquos real GDP growth isprojected at 19 per cent in 2013

and 20 per cent in 2014 Capitalinvestment expenditures in the utility

sector mining oil and gas as wellas the manuacturing industry areexpected to be drivers o economicgrowth Expected stronger economic

growth in the United States in 2014may increase international tradebeyond the single digit growth

experienced thus ar in 2013

Economic activity in Manitoba is

projected to generate employmentgrowth o 10 per cent in 2013 and13 per cent in 2014 Manitobarsquoslabour orce is expected to increase

at a similar rate helping to keep theunemployment rate lower than thenational average and relatively stableat 53 per cent in 2013 and 2014

Net migration in Manitoba a keydriver o population growth and

housing demand is orecast to reach

8600 people in 2013 and edgelower to 8500 people in 2014 TheProvincial Nominee Program will

continue to encourage migrants torelocate to Manitoba and internationalmigration is expected to be a primarydriver o population growth and

new household ormation Howeverinternational gains will be reducedby interprovincial outfows primarily

to Alberta

in Dtal

Single Starts Manitobarsquos single-

detached housing starts are expectedto remain elevated at 4000 units in2013 and 4100 units in 2014 Wage

growth near infation and employmentgains will support demand or newhomes moving orward On the other

hand moderating net migration andrising supply levels will keep single-detached starts near the 4000 unitlevel over the orecast period

Multiple Starts Multi-amily startsare projected to slightly surpass

2012rsquos production and reach3100 units in 2013 Low vacancyrates across the province havesupported construction in the

rental sector Meanwhile demandor condominiums is being uelled byrst-time buyers and empty-nestersWith a growing number o units

under construction builders will easeproduction to 2900 units in 2014

Resales MLSreg sales are orecast tomoderate rom last yearrsquos record to13600 in 2013 beore reboundingslightly to 13700 in 2014 The move-

up buying segment o the market will

be supported by home equity gainsrom rising real estate values Demand

will also be bolstered by populationgrowth and employment gainsHowever these will be counteredby increased mortgage carrying

costs keeping sales below the2012 peak o 14008

Prices The average residential MLSreg price in Manitoba is orecast to riseto $256600 in 2013 ollowed by anincrease to $263000 in 2014 Slower

sales combined with a slight increasein new listings will result in a higherinventory o active listings particularly

in Winnipeg This will help to easesellersrsquo market conditions in Winnipegand reduce upward pressure on pricegrowth over the orecast period

Manitoba Starts (000s)

0

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7100 or 2013 and 7000 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 6900-7300 units or 2013 and

6300-7700 or 2014

Figure 4

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1133

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

onta

ovv

Ontariorsquos economy will grow at amodest pace o 15 per cent this year

beore gaining momentum in 2014with growth o 26 per cent Next

year would be the rst time in over adecade that Ontario outpaces overallgrowth in Canada Consumer andpublic sector spending will contribute

less to economic growth Insteadimproving business investmentnon-residential construction and

trade will drive Ontariorsquos economysupported in part by a relativelycheaper Canadian dollar According

to consensus among Canadianorecasters the US economy isexpected to gain strength againstother global economies by 2014

This is expected to support Ontariorsquostrade sector

Ontario employment growth will

strengthen to 17 per cent by nextyear and will ollow in the ootstepso an improving economy Ontariorsquosunemployment rate will decline

relative to most other provinceswhich will support a stronger paceo income growth in 2014

As Ontario gradually closes theeconomic growth gap with otherregions migratory outfows to

other parts o Canada will lessenSimilarly international migration willprovide some underlying support to

population growth as Ontariorsquos shareo international migration moves

higher and closer to historic normsNet migration to Ontario will

rise rom 83100 people to over93600 people in 2014

Against the improving backdrop

Ontario residential constructionwill slow down this year beorestabilizing in 2014 Starts will decline

to 58600 units in 2013 beorereaching 59400 units next yearResale activity will hold up betterover the orecast horizon but

will not reach the peak o 2007Modest job growth relative to therecent past better supplied resale

markets and a high level o apartmentunits under construction will restraingrowth in housing starts over theorecast horizon

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached starts

are orecast at 23000 and 23900units in 2013 and 2014 respectivelyLow inventories o unsold homesand tighter resale market conditions

will allow detached construction topost some growth over the orecasthorizon relative to higher density

housing construction

Multiple Starts Multi-amily homeconstruction will slow to 35600 units

this year beore stabilizing at 35500units in 2014 Apartment starts willalso moderate in 2013 as apartment

demand slows beore stabilizingin 2014 More choice in the resalemarket will dampen demand or

new condominiums Furthermore ahigh level o apartment units underconstruction is generating capacityconstraints or the industry - making

it dicult or new projects tocommence construction

Resales Existing home sales willreach 195400 units this year justshy o 2012 levels Ater trendinglower since the spring o 2012

existing home sales have stabilizedand are expected to graduallyimprove over the orecast horizon

reaching 202800 units in 2014More condominium completionscoupled with the resale marketrsquosprice advantage will provide more

choice to potential home buyers

Prices A balanced Ontario resale

market suggests prices will grow inline with the general rate o infation

over the orecast horizon In additionshiting preerences rom expensive

to inexpensive housing will also exertdownward pressure on average pricesover the next ew years Ontarioaverage home prices will grow to

$397400 and $404400 in 2013and 2014 respectively

Ontario Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 58600 or 2013 and 59400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 57000-60200 units or 2013 and

53200-65600 or 2014

Figure 5

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1233

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Qc

ovv

In Quebec relatively slow economicand employment growth will reduce

demand o existing and new homesthis year Easing resale markets and

relatively high inventories o newdwellings will signicantly lowerhousing starts in 2013 Nonethelessdemographic trends will support

housing demand into 2014 at whichtime a strengthening economy andtightening resale markets will energize

both the resale and new housingmarkets

On the economic ront Quebecrsquoslabour markets still eel the impacts o a slow recovery south o the borderand o more avourable employment

prospects in western Canada Whilebusiness investment has increasedsolidly rms have ocused on xedcapital rather than on hiring For this

reason employment will progress at arelatively slow pace in 2013 and 2014(14 per cent each year) Meanwhilepublic and consumer spending have

increased moderately while exportlevels remained stable GDP growth o between 15 and 22 per cent growth

is expected during the orecasthorizon

Demographic trends will continue

to support the provincersquos housingmarkets in the next two yearsSustained immigration to the province

will still have a positive impact ondemand in the rental market as

fows are expected to remain stableover the orecast horizon Total

net migration is expected to reachrespectively 44700 and 45300persons in 2013 and 2014 Whilemoderating demand rom younger

households cools rst-time buyingpopulation aging will prompt some

older households to re-enter themarket in response to their evolvinghousing needs

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 moderate jobgrowth the continued easing o the

resale market which is expectedto attract a greater part o housingdemand and the trend toward multi-amily dwelling will contribute to

reduce single starts and translateinto a total o 13700 single-detachedhomes started In 2014 a tighter

resale market will bring some supportto the new housing market segmentwhich is expected to result in14100 single starts

Multiple Starts The trend towardthe multi-amily market segment is

explained by its relative aordability

the changing needs o an agingpopulation and by densicationtrends Fuelled by the popularity o

condominium apartments supply inthis market segment has increasedsignicantly As a result o threeyears o sustained construction rom

2010 to 2012 market conditions inthis market have eased signicantly

Starts o multi-amily dwellings willthus decrease considerably this yearMultiple starts will descend below the25000 level in 2013 and rise to the

25700 mark in 2014

Resales While holding steady in 2012

sales recorded by Centrisreg12 havebeen recently declining as a resulto the overall economic contextdiscussed previously Despite a certain

rebound expected in the secondhal o this year resales will come inat a lower level this year For 2013

73000 such transactions are orecastAs buying conditions improve totalresales will be back in growth modenext year In total 75700 Centrisreg

sales are orecast or 2014

Prices Relatively lower demand orresale homes combined with rising

supply has taken pressure o price

growth in recent quarters and shouldcontinue to do so throughout this

coming year With a return to morebalanced conditions price growthin the resale market will continueto moderate in 2013 The average

price recorded by Centrisreg will reach$269100 in 2013 and $272000next year

Quebec Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 38500 or 2013 and 39800 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 37500-39500 units or 2013 and 35600-44000 or 2014

Figure 6

12 The Centrisreg system contains all the listings o Quebec real estate brokers

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1333

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

N bnsck

ovv

GDP growth is expected to remainweak over the orecast period with

03 per cent growth orecast or theprovince in 2013 and 10 per cent in

2014 The current weakness stemsrom a reduction in capital investmentThe natural resources sector a keydriver or economic growth in the

province is also expected to postmixed results in 2013

New Brunswick labour marketconditions will remain relatively sotas employment growth is projected

to decline 04 per cent in 2013 andrise 05 per cent in 2014 Slow growthin the labour orce will leave theunemployment rate at 108 per cent

over the next two years

The economic prospects or theprovince are also being held back by

slower population growth and risingout-migration Net migration is notexpected to improve signicantly

in 2013 or 2014 as international

migration is expected to remain weak and interprovincial migration althoughnot as negative as the level reported

in 2012 will not turn positive over theorecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts Rising out-migrationin some centres combined withweakened employment conditions

will have a dampening eect on

housing market activity in 2013 and2014 Single starts are orecast todecline to 1200 units in 2013 and

to 1100 units in 2014

Multiple Starts Stronger building

activity in the rental market duringthe past three years particularlyin Moncton and Fredericton hasresulted in rising vacancy rates

With an expectation that vacancyrates in New Brunswickrsquos three largesturban centers will continue to risein 2013 and 2014 developers are

expected to become more cautiousleading to a reduction in apartmentstarts As a result multiple starts areexpected to decline to 1300 units

in 2013 with a urther decline to1050 units in 2014

Resales Overall market conditionscontinue to benet potential homebuyers in 2013 as many segmentso the market have shited towards

buyerrsquos market conditions Withexpected declines in employmentin 2013 and rising out-migrationdemand is not expected to increase

substantially over the orecast periodConsequently MLSreg sales shoulddecline to 6000 units in 2013 with a

urther decline to 5800 in 2014

Prices The inventory o availablehomes is expected to remain at

historically high levels in NewBrunswickrsquos large urban centresin 2013 and 2014 This will impact

the level o price growth The MLSreg average price is expected to decreaseto $161000 in 2013 and again to$160500 in 2014

New Brunswick Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 2500 or 2013 and 2150 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2175-2825 units or 2013 and

1500-2800 or 2014

Figure 7

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1433

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nva Scta

ovv

The province o Nova Scotia isexpected to record economic

growth o 10 per cent in 2013 and15 per cent in 2014 Economic

conditions are expected to slowlyimprove over the orecast periodHaliaxrsquos shipbuilding industry willadd to growth as current and uture

construction repair and maintenanceprojects are expected to createeconomic activity over the short

and medium term The energy sectorwill add to provincial production inthe second hal o 2013The benets

o a lower Canadian dollar will also beelt by companies exporting materialsand goods

Nova Scotia labour market conditionswill remain stable in 2013 asemployment growth is projected torise 04 per cent this year compared

to growth o 06 per cent in 2012In 2014 the rise in growth will be to09 per cent as a result o a moderaterise in private sector investment

activity A similar level in the growtho the labour orce in 2013 and 2014will leave the unemployment rate

close to 90 per cent in both years

For 2013 interprovincial migration willmoderate to close to 4000 people

as was reported in 2012 The level o interprovincial migration will remainnegative in 2014 at close to -2000

people The level o internationalmigration will drop close to -2000 in

2013 and -1350 in 2014 As a resultnet-migration will remain negative at

-2000 in 2013 and -750 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 modestemployment growth and shitingconsumer demand will result in a

decline in single-detached startsto 1840 units For 2014 expecteconomic growth to stimulatedemand in the new homes market

resulting in a rise to 1975 single-detached starts in the province

Multiple Starts The provincialmulti-amily segment o themarket will continue to be drivenby apartment-style rental unit

construction most o which will takeplace in Haliax Demand or rentalhousing will be largely driven by anaging population base that is looking

to downsize or move to one-foorliving accommodations Expect semi-detached and row units to also remain

a popular alternative over the orecastperiod or rst-time home buyersMultiple starts will total 2185 unitsin 2013 beore declining to 2100

starts in 2014

Resales Following a slight increase

in 2012 MLSreg sales will decline in2013 to 9300 units In 2014 expecta smaller decline in provincialnet migration and an improving

employment outlook to result ina small reversal in MLSreg sales to9600 units

Prices The average sale price o anexisting home in Nova Scotia climbed37 per cent in 2012 to $220413In 2013 reduced demand will shit

market conditions towards a buyerrsquosmarket resulting in slowing pricegrowth o 07 per cent to $222000

In 2014 prices will increase to$226000 as improving economicactors will result in better marketconditions

Nova Scotia Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 4025 or 2013 and 4075 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 3525-4525 units or 2013 and 3075-5075 or 2014

Figure 8

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Pnc edad

island

ovv

Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic

growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent

declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the

prospects or manuacturing andexports

Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support

the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth

o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment

rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon

The economic prospects or the

province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012

Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about

500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts The slowdown in

population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units

in 2014

Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a

continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise

in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply

o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014

Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will

impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014

Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will

also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be

$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014

Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is

refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014

Figure 9

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nfndland and

Laad

ovv

Newoundland and Labrador will see

a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise

to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil

production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related

private sector investment activity

One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness

in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador

Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth

is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the

rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the

unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years

Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over

the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population

growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in

2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but

the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period

in Dtal

Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and

2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single

starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity

is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single

starts in 2014

Multiple Starts Multiple unit

construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast

period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014

Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a

decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to

improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net

migration increases

Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels

elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average

MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000

in 2014

Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)

00

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and

2200-3600 or 2014

Figure 10

13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Canada Starts (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 11

The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

3 6 0 6

3 4 8 8

3 8 8 5

3 0 5 0

2 9 0 0

2 7 2 6

3 0 6 9

3 4 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 8 0 0

3 3 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 8 0

- 3 3

1 1 4

- 2 1 5

- 4 9

- 2 4 7

1 2 6

1 0 8

- 1 1 8

- 6 7

1 7 9

- 9 1

- 1 6 7

P E I

7 5 6

9 4 0

9 4 1

8 0 0

7 0 0

9 2 0

7 5 7

7 7 5

7 5 5

6 5 0

7 4 0

7 4 5

6 6 5

- 1 3 8

2 4 3

0 1

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 5

- 4 0

- 1 7 7

2 4

- 2 6

- 1 3 9

1 3 8

0 7

- 1 0 7

N S

4 3 0 9

4 6 4 4

4 5 2 2

4 0 2 5

4 0 7 5

4 6 1 1

3 4 5 6

4 1 5 0

3 8 5 0

3 6 0 0

4 5 0 0

4 3 0 0

3 9 0 0

2 5 3

7 8

- 2 6

- 1 1 0

1 2

- 1 1 0

- 2 5 0

2 0 1

- 7 2

- 6 5

2 5 0

- 4 4

- 9 3

N B

4 1 0 1

3 4 5 2

3 2 9 9

2 5 0 0

2 1 5 0

3 4 2 9

2 9 0 4

1 9 0 0

1 7 7 5

1 7 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 6 5

-

1 5 8

- 4 4

- 2 4 2

- 1 4 0

1 6 3

- 1 5 3

- 3 4 6

- 6 6

- 4 2

4 1 2

4 2

- 2 0 0

Q U E

5 1 3 6 3

4 8 3 8 7

4 7 3 6 7

3 8 5 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 5 9 2 6

3 8 1 0 4

3 9 8 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

3 9 7 5 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

1 8 3

- 5 8

- 2 1

- 1 8 7

3 4

- 2 0 3

6 1

4 5

0 5

- 0 6

0 1

0 0

0 0

O N T

6 0 4 3 3

6 7 8 2 1

7 6 7 4 2

5 8 6 0 0

5 9 4 0 0

5 6 7 1 5

5 7 9 3 1

5 9 4 5 0

6 0 2 5 0

6 0 8 0 0

6 0 2 0 0

5 9 0 0 0

5 7 7 0 0

2 0 0

1 2 2

1 3 2

- 2 3 6

1 4

- 1 8 2

2 1

2 6

1 3

0 9

- 1 0

- 2 0

- 2 2

M A N

5 8 8 8

6 0 8 3

7 2 4 2

7 1 0 0

7 0 0 0

6 8 1 0

7 3 8 2

7 0 0 0

7 1 0 0

7 1 0 0

6 8 0 0

6 9 0 0

7 0 0 0

4 1 1

3 3

1 9 1

- 2 0

- 1 4

6 1

8 4

- 5 2

1 4

0 0

- 4 2

1 5

1 4

S A S K

5 9 0 7

7 0 3 1

9 9 6 8

7 5 0 0

7 7 0 0

6 5 5 8

7 4 9 7

7 9 0 0

8 0 0 0

7 6 0 0

7 9 0 0

7 7 0 0

7 6 0 0

5 2 8

1 9 0

4 1 8

- 2 4 8

2 7

- 4 0 7

1 4 3

5 4

1 3

- 5 0

3 9

- 2 5

- 1 3

A L T A

2 7 0 8 8

2 5 7 0 4

3 3 3 9 6

3 3 8 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 3 7 2 5

3 9 1 6 2

3 1 4 0 0

3 0 9 0 0

3 4 0 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 4 2 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 3 5

- 5 1

2 9 9

1 2

1 8

- 2 2

1 6 1

- 1 9 8

- 1 6

1 0 0

1 2

- 0 6

2 3

B C

2 6 4 7 9

2 6 4 0 0

2 7 4 6 5

2 7 1 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 4 0 3 6

2 5 2 7 3

2 9 5 0 0

2 9 5 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 3 0 0

6 4 7

- 0 3

4 0

- 1 3

5 5

- 1 8

5 1

1 6 7

0 0

- 2 7

- 0 3

0 3

- 1 4

C A N

1 8 9 9 3 0

1 9 3 9 5 0

2 1 4 8 2 7

1 8 2 8 0 0

1 8 6 6 0 0

1 7 5 4 5 6

1 8 5 5 3 5

1 8 5 3 0 0

1 8 5 1 0 0

1 8 6 7 0 0

1 8 8 6 0 0

1

8 6 8 0 0

1 8 4 5 0 0

2 7 4

2 1

1 0 8

- 1 4 9

2 1

- 1 3 8

5 7

- 0 1

- 0 1

0 8

1 0

- 1 0

- 1 3

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1

8 8 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6

0 0 - 2

0 7 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8

0 0 u n

i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 4: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 433

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

strengthening to 24 per cent in2014 This compares to GDP growth

estimate o 17 per cent in 2012

The orecast or Canadian GDPgrowth in 2013 was revised up

slightly since the 2013 second quarter

Housing Market Outlook largelyrefecting upward revisions to growth

in industrial production Exportsare projected to gather momentumcoupled with continued growth inconsumer spending Business xed

investment is expected to strengthenas the recovery in Canadian exportsbecomes more rmly entrenchedproviding greater condence about

prospects or global demand The

Canadian economy is expected tocontinue to grow in 2013 at the same

pace as in 2012 and will thereoreremain supportive o the housingmarket In 2014 GDP growth willincrease its support to housing market

activity as the economic outlook strengthens

emplymnt t stayspptv

Employment increased by 12 per centin 2012 Based on the consensus

among prominent Canadianorecasters CMHC expects thatemployment will grow by 14 per centin 2013 and in 2014 Despite the slow

growth in employment year-to-dateemployment growth is anticipated toimprove in the second hal o the yearand is expected to sustain moderate

increases in household incomeand household ormation over the

orecast horizon This will in turnsupport the housing market

Hgh nt mgatn

Canadarsquos strong economic

perormance relative to its peers isexpected to continue to attract a highlevel o immigrants (net internationalmigration) Total net migration is

orecast to reach 259100 people in2013 up rom an estimated 257695in 2012 and above the 10-year

average o about 238800 peopleNet migration is expected to increaseurther to 262450 in 2014

High levels o net migrationby historical standards will helpsupport Canadarsquos housing sector

New migrants typically enter therental market beore moving to

homeownership Migration is expectedto be supportive o demand or

multi-amily housing more specicallypurpose-built rental apartments andrental condominium units over theprojection horizon The high levels

o net migration in the last ew yearswill continue to support multi-amilyhousing over the orecast horizon

particularly rom the relatively highernumbers o migrants to Canada

since 2008

Mtgag ats t s mdstand gadal ncass latn th fcast hzn

t ll man l yhstcal standads

In line with the consensus amongprivate-sector orecasters increasesin the Target Overnight Rate by theBank o Canada are not anticipated

beore mid-2014 This interest rateoutlook has not changed rom the2013 second quarter Housing Market

Outlook and will continue to besupportive o housing market activity

over the orecast horizon

Mortgage rates are expected toincrease gradually and steadily over

the orecast horizon By the end o

2014 mortgage rates are orecastto be somewhat higher than in the

second quarter o 2013 Howeverthese rates will remain low byhistorical standards

According to CMHCrsquos base casescenario or 2013 the one-yearmortgage rate is orecast to be within300 per cent to 350 per cent with

an average o 312 per cent whilethe ve-year posted mortgage rate is

anticipated to be within 500 per centto 550 per cent with an average o 525 per cent For 2014 the one-yearposted mortgage rate is expected torise and be in the 325 per cent to

375 per cent range with an averageo 344 per cent while the ve-yearposted mortgage rate is orecast to be

within 525 per cent to 600 per centwith an average o 562 per centconsistent with higher economic

growth prospects in 2014

Vacancy ats t man stalv th fcast hzn

The average rental apartment vacancy

rate in Canadarsquos 35 major centresis expected to decline slightly to25 per cent by October 2013 rom26 per cent in October 2012 It is

expected to remain at this level inOctober 20147

Most centres saw higher vacancyrates in October 2012 than inOctober 2011 according to CMHCrsquos

7 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

all 2012 Rental Market SurveyImproving economic conditions in

the second hal o 2013 and 2014are expected in part to providegreater support to rental demandover the orecast horizon leading

to the slight decline in vacancyrates that is expected in 2013and 2014

CMHCrsquos all 2012 Rental MarketSurvey also covered condominiumapartments oered or rent in

11 major centres8 Vacancy rates orrental condominiums essentially heldsteady in most centres rom October2011 including Montreal Toronto

Edmonton Winnipeg and Vancouver

Typically the vacancy rates or rentalcondominiums are higher than

vacancy rates or purpose-builtrental apartments

Low vacancy rates o purpose-builtrental apartments over the orecast

horizon are expected to helpsupport multiple-unit housingconstruction particularly in 2014through the expansion o the rental

condominium market

rsks t th otlk This outlook is subject to somerisks including

Mortgage interest rates are still

near their historical low Shouldmortgage interest rates risesooner or aster than expected

by potential buyers and existingmortgage holders this could

lead to a lower level o activityin Canadarsquos housing market and

generate some nancial risksor the more heavily indebtedhomeowner households in the

medium to longer term

Despite recent improvements inthe growth o household credit

elevated levels o household debtand house prices in some urbancentres have made the countryrsquoseconomy more vulnerable to

some economic shocks I interestrates or unemployment were toincrease sharply and signicantly

some o the more heavily indebtedhouseholds could be orced toliquidate some o their assetsincluding their home This could

put downward pressure on houseprices and more generally onhousing market activity Althoughthis risk can arise in the shorter

term its impact would not be

immediate on most indebtedhouseholds because o the

prevalence o xed mortgageterms

Recent levels o units under

construction may impact theinventory o completed andunabsorbed units in the short tomedium term Should the inventory

o new units increase inordinatelybuilders may delay or reduce the

size o some construction projectsThis could lead to a sharper-than-expected moderation in unit starts

A more protracted European

crisis or a more muted recoveryin the US or weaker growth inemerging markets could negatively

impact Canadarsquos net exports andthe countryrsquos overall economicoutlook A stronger-than-expectedUS economic recovery or

stronger growth in emergingcountries could positively impactCanadian economic growthcontributing to a higher level

o activity in Canadarsquos housingmarkets

8 CMHCrsquos Rental Market Survey covers condominium apartments oered or rent in Victoria Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Regina Saskatoon Winnipeg TorontoOttawa Montreacuteal and Queacutebec

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

td gc

Ky facts and th ffcts n hsng stats

Mtgag ats Mortgage rates are expected to increase gradually and steadily over the orecast horizon

However they will remain low by historical standards Current mortgage rates are supportiveo housing demand

emplymnt The labour market has gotten o to a slower than expected start in 2013 with employmentgrowing in the rst six months at a little over hal the rate in 2011 and 2012 Neverthelessemployment is expected to improve during the course o the year and is orecast to grow14 per cent in both 2013 and 2014 which will support Canadarsquos housing sector

incm Growth in incomes is expected to continue albeit at a moderate pace on account o modesteconomic growth in Canada and global markets As a result income growth will remainsupportive o housing demand over the orecast horizon

Nt mgatn Canadarsquos economy is expected to continue to perorm well relative to its peer countries

Canada should thereore continue to attract a high level o immigrants (net internationalmigration) over the orecast horizon which will support housing demand in the medium tolong term

Pplatn9 Lower population growth among the 25 to 34 year age group is expected to lead to a slightmoderation in demand rom rst-time home buyers this year and over the longer termFurthermore Canadarsquos low birth rate should lessen the demand or additional housing stock inthe medium and longer term Population aging however is likely to impact the type and tenureo housing demanded

rsal makt Resale market conditions or 2013 and 2014 are expected to be balanced in most local marketsNevertheless some price momentum will see the average MLSreg price grow roughly in line with

infation in 2013 and 2014Vacancy ats10 The average vacancy rates o purpose-built rental apartments across Canadarsquos metropolitan

centres is expected to decline slightly to 25 per cent in 2013 and remain at that level in 2014Lower vacancy rates or purpose-built rental apartments over the orecast horizon are expectedto help support multiple-unit housing construction particularly in 2014 through the expansiono the rental condominium market

Stck f nand nccpdnts

The stock o unabsorbed new housing units has been stable in the second quarter o 2013indicating continued strength in demand or newly completed homes In addition the ratio o thestock o unabsorbed new units to population a simple gauge to assess potential over-building isclose to the historical average Nevertheless should the inventory increase inordinately buildersmay delay or reduce the size o some housing projects This could lead to a sharper-than-

expected moderation

9 Demographic orecasts are based on Statistics Canadarsquos medium-growth population projection

10 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

btsh Clma

ovv

British Columbiarsquos economy is orecastto expand 19 per cent in 2013 and25 per cent in 2014 slightly ahead o the national average Modest growth

in consumer spending and businessinvestment are expected to contributeto economic growth Population and

employment growth are orecast tohelp increase consumer spendingwhile a weaker Canadian dollar andincreasing demand rom the US is

expected to boost provincial exportsGrowth in exports will supportbusiness investment

British Columbiarsquos labour marketconditions are orecast to improvein 2014 with employment growth

increasing to 15 per cent next yearrom 04 per cent in 2013 This yearrsquosshit to higher levels o ull-timeemployment will carry over into 2014

An increase in ull-time employmentwill support wage growth andhomeownership demand

Demographic trends support arising level o housing demand inthe province Migration rom other

countries partly oset by peoplemoving to other provinces isexpected to add 38000 people thisyear and 41300 people next year

As well population projections byage group indicate a larger number o people in the 25 to 44 year age range

which has traditionally contributedto rst-time home buyer demand11

Population growth in this age rangeis projected to increase rom

11 per cent in 2012 to 18 per centby 2017 up rom less than one percent per annum during the previous

ve-year period The resulting growth

in population combined with strongeremployment growth will push housingsales and starts higher next year

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached startsare projected to rise to 9000 units in

2013 and 9900 units in 2014 Growthin demand or new single-detachedhomes will shit rom urban to rural

BC in 2014 refecting both lowerland costs and rising resource sectoremployment

Multiple Starts British Columbiarsquosmulti-amily starts will ease slightlyto 18100 units in 2013 due to risinginventories and increased competition

rom a well-supplied resale market orcondominium apartments Multi-amilystarts are orecast to edge higher in

2014 increasing to 18700 units as

demand strengthens and inventorieso new completed and unoccupiedunits are drawn lower Multi-amily

construction in the province has beensupported by low vacancy rates inthe rental sector and demand rom

buyers seeking less costly and lowermaintenance alternatives to single-detached housing Expect smallerphased projects to continue to get

under way in housing markets outsideo Vancouver with an increase inlarger multi-amily projects starting

construction in Vancouver includingseveral intended or the rental market

Resales MLSreg sales are orecast to

increase to 70100 in 2013 and 77000in 2014 Demand will be broad-baseduelled by rising employment coupled

with low interest rates ample supplyand stable prices

Prices Expect rising new listings in line

with stronger existing home sales tokeep price growth in check this yearand next The average residential MLSreg

price in British Columbia is orecast to

edge higher with projected increases

below the pace o consumer priceinfation The average price is orecast

at $518300 in 2013 and $523200in 2014

British Columbia Starts (000s)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 27100 or 2013 and 28600 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 26400-27800 units or 2013 and 25700-31500 or 2014

Figure 1

11 BC Stats population projections show annual growth o the 25 to 44 year age category adding on average 18700 persons this year and next Source PEOPLE2012 CMHC calculations

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Alta

ovv

Flooding in Alberta during the montho June damaged many homes and

businesses as well as inrastructureWhile the ull extent o the economic

damage will not be determinedor some time it is expected thatthe fooding will have a short-termnegative impact on economic activity

in 2013 However Albertarsquos real GDPwill still increase by 20 per cent asother actors such as investments in

the energy industry will help keepoverall growth positive Looking aheadfood remediation expenditures and

related activities will provide a boostto the economy helping Albertarsquos realGDP increase by 30 in 2014

Fundamental drivers o housingsuch as household ormationpopulation and employment growthwill continue to propel Albertarsquos

housing markets over the orecasthorizon Employment is projectedto increase by 20 per cent in2013 and 21 per cent in 2014

An expanding labour orce will keepthe unemployment rate around46 per cent through 2014 Tight

labour market conditions and risingwages will continue to be a draw ormigrants and support housing demand

The population o Alberta increasedby over 3 per cent in 2012 andis expected to continue to grow

substantially supported by migrationNet migration to Alberta is projected

to remain elevated at 75900 in 2013and 63000 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached stars

are projected to rise to 18200 unitsin 2013 and to 18900 units in 2014The rising level o sales in the resale

market is supportive o new homeconstruction as some buyers will look to new construction to meet their

needs Some food damaged homeswill be demolished and replaced butmost o the housing that is currently

being built or food impactedhouseholds is temporary As theoundation or temporary housingis not permanent those units will

not be counted as a housing start

Multiple Starts Multi-amily startsare orecast at 15600 units in 2013

and 15500 units in 2014 O Albertarsquosseven largest centres only Calgaryis projected to experience a decline

in multi-amily starts in 2013 atershowing an elevated level o activityin 2012 In 2014 multi-amily starts inEdmonton are expected to decline

ater two consecutive years o strong production The changes in

production in Edmonton and Calgaryare expected to somewhat oset each

other and keep multi-amily startsrelatively stable over the orecastperiod

Resales Infows o migrants andull-time job growth are increasinghousing demand and liting MLSreg sales

which are projected to increase to62700 in 2013 and to 64200 in 2014Flooding in Alberta has impacted

some real estate markets some to alarger extent than others howeverreal estate activity is expected to

normalize with time

Prices The average MLSreg pricein Alberta is orecast to increase

36 per cent to $376300 in 2013 and

then rise 24 per cent to $385300in 2014 Higher demand relative tosupply is putting upward pressure

on prices and real estate valuesare projected to increase over theorecast period

Alberta Starts (000s)

0

5

10

15

2025

30

35

40

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 2

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 33800 or 2013 and 34400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 33000-34600 units or 2013 and 30800-38000 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Saskatchan

ovv

Saskatchewanrsquos real GDP is projectedto increase by 21 per cent in

2013 and by 28 per cent in 2014Economic growth in Saskatchewan is

expected to remain strong relativeto other provinces through 2014Saskatchewanrsquos international exportsare increasing this year as rising

exports o agricultural and mineralproducts have been more thanosetting a decline in energy products

Consumer spending will continue togrow supported by population andwage growth

Saskatchewanrsquos labour market willcontinue to grow with its expandingeconomy Employment is projected

to increase by 29 per cent in 2013and then by 17 per cent in 2014Employment gains are not currentlybeing met by a commensurate

increase in the labour orce and thisis keeping the unemployment ratelow is some parts o SaskatchewanThe unemployment rate at the

provincial level is orecast at 42 percent in 2013 and 43 per cent in 2014Saskatchewanrsquos unemployment rate

will remain the lowest o all provincesover the orecast period

Net migration to Saskatchewan

is projected to reach 11900 in2013 and 12100 in 2014 The vastmajority o Saskatchewanrsquos gains will

come rom international migrationInterprovincial migration is projected

to remain positive over the orecastperiod as economic opportunities

draw migrants rom other parts o Canada New household ormationand housing demand will continueto be supported by migration to

Saskatchewan but not to the sameextent as in 2012

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached startswill moderate to 4100 units in 2013

as high inventory levels continueto slow the pace o initiating newprojects While demand or newsingle-detached homes will remain

elevated the slower pace o absorptions at completion will bea constraining actor on starts this

year A slight increase to 4200 unitsis expected in 2014

Multiple Starts Following an increase

to 4797 units in 2012 multi-amilystarts are projected to decline to3400 units in 2013 due to risinginventory With absorptions lagging

completions this year inventory isrising and will motivate home buildersto scale back production o multi-

amily units Multi-amily starts are

expected to edge higher in 2014to 3500 units

Resales MLSreg sales in Saskatchewanare orecast to moderate to13200 units in 2013 due to lower

net migration and rise modestlyto 13400 units in 2014 While theelevated number o 13950 resales in

2012 will not be surpassed over theorecast period MLSreg sales will remainelevated by historical standards

Prices The average MLSreg price inSaskatchewan is projected to rise to$288000 in 2013 rom $274268 in

2012 Balanced market conditionsover the orecast period are expectedto increase the average MLSreg price to$294100 in 2014

Saskatchewan Starts (000s)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7500 or 2013 and 7700 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 7300-7700 units or 2013 and

6900-8500 or 2014

Figure 3

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1033

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Manta

ovv

Manitobarsquos real GDP growth isprojected at 19 per cent in 2013

and 20 per cent in 2014 Capitalinvestment expenditures in the utility

sector mining oil and gas as wellas the manuacturing industry areexpected to be drivers o economicgrowth Expected stronger economic

growth in the United States in 2014may increase international tradebeyond the single digit growth

experienced thus ar in 2013

Economic activity in Manitoba is

projected to generate employmentgrowth o 10 per cent in 2013 and13 per cent in 2014 Manitobarsquoslabour orce is expected to increase

at a similar rate helping to keep theunemployment rate lower than thenational average and relatively stableat 53 per cent in 2013 and 2014

Net migration in Manitoba a keydriver o population growth and

housing demand is orecast to reach

8600 people in 2013 and edgelower to 8500 people in 2014 TheProvincial Nominee Program will

continue to encourage migrants torelocate to Manitoba and internationalmigration is expected to be a primarydriver o population growth and

new household ormation Howeverinternational gains will be reducedby interprovincial outfows primarily

to Alberta

in Dtal

Single Starts Manitobarsquos single-

detached housing starts are expectedto remain elevated at 4000 units in2013 and 4100 units in 2014 Wage

growth near infation and employmentgains will support demand or newhomes moving orward On the other

hand moderating net migration andrising supply levels will keep single-detached starts near the 4000 unitlevel over the orecast period

Multiple Starts Multi-amily startsare projected to slightly surpass

2012rsquos production and reach3100 units in 2013 Low vacancyrates across the province havesupported construction in the

rental sector Meanwhile demandor condominiums is being uelled byrst-time buyers and empty-nestersWith a growing number o units

under construction builders will easeproduction to 2900 units in 2014

Resales MLSreg sales are orecast tomoderate rom last yearrsquos record to13600 in 2013 beore reboundingslightly to 13700 in 2014 The move-

up buying segment o the market will

be supported by home equity gainsrom rising real estate values Demand

will also be bolstered by populationgrowth and employment gainsHowever these will be counteredby increased mortgage carrying

costs keeping sales below the2012 peak o 14008

Prices The average residential MLSreg price in Manitoba is orecast to riseto $256600 in 2013 ollowed by anincrease to $263000 in 2014 Slower

sales combined with a slight increasein new listings will result in a higherinventory o active listings particularly

in Winnipeg This will help to easesellersrsquo market conditions in Winnipegand reduce upward pressure on pricegrowth over the orecast period

Manitoba Starts (000s)

0

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7100 or 2013 and 7000 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 6900-7300 units or 2013 and

6300-7700 or 2014

Figure 4

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1133

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

onta

ovv

Ontariorsquos economy will grow at amodest pace o 15 per cent this year

beore gaining momentum in 2014with growth o 26 per cent Next

year would be the rst time in over adecade that Ontario outpaces overallgrowth in Canada Consumer andpublic sector spending will contribute

less to economic growth Insteadimproving business investmentnon-residential construction and

trade will drive Ontariorsquos economysupported in part by a relativelycheaper Canadian dollar According

to consensus among Canadianorecasters the US economy isexpected to gain strength againstother global economies by 2014

This is expected to support Ontariorsquostrade sector

Ontario employment growth will

strengthen to 17 per cent by nextyear and will ollow in the ootstepso an improving economy Ontariorsquosunemployment rate will decline

relative to most other provinceswhich will support a stronger paceo income growth in 2014

As Ontario gradually closes theeconomic growth gap with otherregions migratory outfows to

other parts o Canada will lessenSimilarly international migration willprovide some underlying support to

population growth as Ontariorsquos shareo international migration moves

higher and closer to historic normsNet migration to Ontario will

rise rom 83100 people to over93600 people in 2014

Against the improving backdrop

Ontario residential constructionwill slow down this year beorestabilizing in 2014 Starts will decline

to 58600 units in 2013 beorereaching 59400 units next yearResale activity will hold up betterover the orecast horizon but

will not reach the peak o 2007Modest job growth relative to therecent past better supplied resale

markets and a high level o apartmentunits under construction will restraingrowth in housing starts over theorecast horizon

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached starts

are orecast at 23000 and 23900units in 2013 and 2014 respectivelyLow inventories o unsold homesand tighter resale market conditions

will allow detached construction topost some growth over the orecasthorizon relative to higher density

housing construction

Multiple Starts Multi-amily homeconstruction will slow to 35600 units

this year beore stabilizing at 35500units in 2014 Apartment starts willalso moderate in 2013 as apartment

demand slows beore stabilizingin 2014 More choice in the resalemarket will dampen demand or

new condominiums Furthermore ahigh level o apartment units underconstruction is generating capacityconstraints or the industry - making

it dicult or new projects tocommence construction

Resales Existing home sales willreach 195400 units this year justshy o 2012 levels Ater trendinglower since the spring o 2012

existing home sales have stabilizedand are expected to graduallyimprove over the orecast horizon

reaching 202800 units in 2014More condominium completionscoupled with the resale marketrsquosprice advantage will provide more

choice to potential home buyers

Prices A balanced Ontario resale

market suggests prices will grow inline with the general rate o infation

over the orecast horizon In additionshiting preerences rom expensive

to inexpensive housing will also exertdownward pressure on average pricesover the next ew years Ontarioaverage home prices will grow to

$397400 and $404400 in 2013and 2014 respectively

Ontario Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 58600 or 2013 and 59400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 57000-60200 units or 2013 and

53200-65600 or 2014

Figure 5

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1233

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Qc

ovv

In Quebec relatively slow economicand employment growth will reduce

demand o existing and new homesthis year Easing resale markets and

relatively high inventories o newdwellings will signicantly lowerhousing starts in 2013 Nonethelessdemographic trends will support

housing demand into 2014 at whichtime a strengthening economy andtightening resale markets will energize

both the resale and new housingmarkets

On the economic ront Quebecrsquoslabour markets still eel the impacts o a slow recovery south o the borderand o more avourable employment

prospects in western Canada Whilebusiness investment has increasedsolidly rms have ocused on xedcapital rather than on hiring For this

reason employment will progress at arelatively slow pace in 2013 and 2014(14 per cent each year) Meanwhilepublic and consumer spending have

increased moderately while exportlevels remained stable GDP growth o between 15 and 22 per cent growth

is expected during the orecasthorizon

Demographic trends will continue

to support the provincersquos housingmarkets in the next two yearsSustained immigration to the province

will still have a positive impact ondemand in the rental market as

fows are expected to remain stableover the orecast horizon Total

net migration is expected to reachrespectively 44700 and 45300persons in 2013 and 2014 Whilemoderating demand rom younger

households cools rst-time buyingpopulation aging will prompt some

older households to re-enter themarket in response to their evolvinghousing needs

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 moderate jobgrowth the continued easing o the

resale market which is expectedto attract a greater part o housingdemand and the trend toward multi-amily dwelling will contribute to

reduce single starts and translateinto a total o 13700 single-detachedhomes started In 2014 a tighter

resale market will bring some supportto the new housing market segmentwhich is expected to result in14100 single starts

Multiple Starts The trend towardthe multi-amily market segment is

explained by its relative aordability

the changing needs o an agingpopulation and by densicationtrends Fuelled by the popularity o

condominium apartments supply inthis market segment has increasedsignicantly As a result o threeyears o sustained construction rom

2010 to 2012 market conditions inthis market have eased signicantly

Starts o multi-amily dwellings willthus decrease considerably this yearMultiple starts will descend below the25000 level in 2013 and rise to the

25700 mark in 2014

Resales While holding steady in 2012

sales recorded by Centrisreg12 havebeen recently declining as a resulto the overall economic contextdiscussed previously Despite a certain

rebound expected in the secondhal o this year resales will come inat a lower level this year For 2013

73000 such transactions are orecastAs buying conditions improve totalresales will be back in growth modenext year In total 75700 Centrisreg

sales are orecast or 2014

Prices Relatively lower demand orresale homes combined with rising

supply has taken pressure o price

growth in recent quarters and shouldcontinue to do so throughout this

coming year With a return to morebalanced conditions price growthin the resale market will continueto moderate in 2013 The average

price recorded by Centrisreg will reach$269100 in 2013 and $272000next year

Quebec Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 38500 or 2013 and 39800 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 37500-39500 units or 2013 and 35600-44000 or 2014

Figure 6

12 The Centrisreg system contains all the listings o Quebec real estate brokers

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1333

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

N bnsck

ovv

GDP growth is expected to remainweak over the orecast period with

03 per cent growth orecast or theprovince in 2013 and 10 per cent in

2014 The current weakness stemsrom a reduction in capital investmentThe natural resources sector a keydriver or economic growth in the

province is also expected to postmixed results in 2013

New Brunswick labour marketconditions will remain relatively sotas employment growth is projected

to decline 04 per cent in 2013 andrise 05 per cent in 2014 Slow growthin the labour orce will leave theunemployment rate at 108 per cent

over the next two years

The economic prospects or theprovince are also being held back by

slower population growth and risingout-migration Net migration is notexpected to improve signicantly

in 2013 or 2014 as international

migration is expected to remain weak and interprovincial migration althoughnot as negative as the level reported

in 2012 will not turn positive over theorecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts Rising out-migrationin some centres combined withweakened employment conditions

will have a dampening eect on

housing market activity in 2013 and2014 Single starts are orecast todecline to 1200 units in 2013 and

to 1100 units in 2014

Multiple Starts Stronger building

activity in the rental market duringthe past three years particularlyin Moncton and Fredericton hasresulted in rising vacancy rates

With an expectation that vacancyrates in New Brunswickrsquos three largesturban centers will continue to risein 2013 and 2014 developers are

expected to become more cautiousleading to a reduction in apartmentstarts As a result multiple starts areexpected to decline to 1300 units

in 2013 with a urther decline to1050 units in 2014

Resales Overall market conditionscontinue to benet potential homebuyers in 2013 as many segmentso the market have shited towards

buyerrsquos market conditions Withexpected declines in employmentin 2013 and rising out-migrationdemand is not expected to increase

substantially over the orecast periodConsequently MLSreg sales shoulddecline to 6000 units in 2013 with a

urther decline to 5800 in 2014

Prices The inventory o availablehomes is expected to remain at

historically high levels in NewBrunswickrsquos large urban centresin 2013 and 2014 This will impact

the level o price growth The MLSreg average price is expected to decreaseto $161000 in 2013 and again to$160500 in 2014

New Brunswick Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 2500 or 2013 and 2150 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2175-2825 units or 2013 and

1500-2800 or 2014

Figure 7

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1433

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nva Scta

ovv

The province o Nova Scotia isexpected to record economic

growth o 10 per cent in 2013 and15 per cent in 2014 Economic

conditions are expected to slowlyimprove over the orecast periodHaliaxrsquos shipbuilding industry willadd to growth as current and uture

construction repair and maintenanceprojects are expected to createeconomic activity over the short

and medium term The energy sectorwill add to provincial production inthe second hal o 2013The benets

o a lower Canadian dollar will also beelt by companies exporting materialsand goods

Nova Scotia labour market conditionswill remain stable in 2013 asemployment growth is projected torise 04 per cent this year compared

to growth o 06 per cent in 2012In 2014 the rise in growth will be to09 per cent as a result o a moderaterise in private sector investment

activity A similar level in the growtho the labour orce in 2013 and 2014will leave the unemployment rate

close to 90 per cent in both years

For 2013 interprovincial migration willmoderate to close to 4000 people

as was reported in 2012 The level o interprovincial migration will remainnegative in 2014 at close to -2000

people The level o internationalmigration will drop close to -2000 in

2013 and -1350 in 2014 As a resultnet-migration will remain negative at

-2000 in 2013 and -750 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 modestemployment growth and shitingconsumer demand will result in a

decline in single-detached startsto 1840 units For 2014 expecteconomic growth to stimulatedemand in the new homes market

resulting in a rise to 1975 single-detached starts in the province

Multiple Starts The provincialmulti-amily segment o themarket will continue to be drivenby apartment-style rental unit

construction most o which will takeplace in Haliax Demand or rentalhousing will be largely driven by anaging population base that is looking

to downsize or move to one-foorliving accommodations Expect semi-detached and row units to also remain

a popular alternative over the orecastperiod or rst-time home buyersMultiple starts will total 2185 unitsin 2013 beore declining to 2100

starts in 2014

Resales Following a slight increase

in 2012 MLSreg sales will decline in2013 to 9300 units In 2014 expecta smaller decline in provincialnet migration and an improving

employment outlook to result ina small reversal in MLSreg sales to9600 units

Prices The average sale price o anexisting home in Nova Scotia climbed37 per cent in 2012 to $220413In 2013 reduced demand will shit

market conditions towards a buyerrsquosmarket resulting in slowing pricegrowth o 07 per cent to $222000

In 2014 prices will increase to$226000 as improving economicactors will result in better marketconditions

Nova Scotia Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 4025 or 2013 and 4075 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 3525-4525 units or 2013 and 3075-5075 or 2014

Figure 8

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Pnc edad

island

ovv

Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic

growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent

declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the

prospects or manuacturing andexports

Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support

the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth

o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment

rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon

The economic prospects or the

province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012

Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about

500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts The slowdown in

population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units

in 2014

Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a

continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise

in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply

o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014

Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will

impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014

Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will

also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be

$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014

Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is

refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014

Figure 9

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nfndland and

Laad

ovv

Newoundland and Labrador will see

a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise

to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil

production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related

private sector investment activity

One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness

in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador

Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth

is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the

rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the

unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years

Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over

the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population

growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in

2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but

the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period

in Dtal

Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and

2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single

starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity

is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single

starts in 2014

Multiple Starts Multiple unit

construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast

period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014

Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a

decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to

improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net

migration increases

Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels

elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average

MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000

in 2014

Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)

00

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and

2200-3600 or 2014

Figure 10

13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Canada Starts (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 11

The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

3 6 0 6

3 4 8 8

3 8 8 5

3 0 5 0

2 9 0 0

2 7 2 6

3 0 6 9

3 4 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 8 0 0

3 3 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 8 0

- 3 3

1 1 4

- 2 1 5

- 4 9

- 2 4 7

1 2 6

1 0 8

- 1 1 8

- 6 7

1 7 9

- 9 1

- 1 6 7

P E I

7 5 6

9 4 0

9 4 1

8 0 0

7 0 0

9 2 0

7 5 7

7 7 5

7 5 5

6 5 0

7 4 0

7 4 5

6 6 5

- 1 3 8

2 4 3

0 1

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 5

- 4 0

- 1 7 7

2 4

- 2 6

- 1 3 9

1 3 8

0 7

- 1 0 7

N S

4 3 0 9

4 6 4 4

4 5 2 2

4 0 2 5

4 0 7 5

4 6 1 1

3 4 5 6

4 1 5 0

3 8 5 0

3 6 0 0

4 5 0 0

4 3 0 0

3 9 0 0

2 5 3

7 8

- 2 6

- 1 1 0

1 2

- 1 1 0

- 2 5 0

2 0 1

- 7 2

- 6 5

2 5 0

- 4 4

- 9 3

N B

4 1 0 1

3 4 5 2

3 2 9 9

2 5 0 0

2 1 5 0

3 4 2 9

2 9 0 4

1 9 0 0

1 7 7 5

1 7 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 6 5

-

1 5 8

- 4 4

- 2 4 2

- 1 4 0

1 6 3

- 1 5 3

- 3 4 6

- 6 6

- 4 2

4 1 2

4 2

- 2 0 0

Q U E

5 1 3 6 3

4 8 3 8 7

4 7 3 6 7

3 8 5 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 5 9 2 6

3 8 1 0 4

3 9 8 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

3 9 7 5 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

1 8 3

- 5 8

- 2 1

- 1 8 7

3 4

- 2 0 3

6 1

4 5

0 5

- 0 6

0 1

0 0

0 0

O N T

6 0 4 3 3

6 7 8 2 1

7 6 7 4 2

5 8 6 0 0

5 9 4 0 0

5 6 7 1 5

5 7 9 3 1

5 9 4 5 0

6 0 2 5 0

6 0 8 0 0

6 0 2 0 0

5 9 0 0 0

5 7 7 0 0

2 0 0

1 2 2

1 3 2

- 2 3 6

1 4

- 1 8 2

2 1

2 6

1 3

0 9

- 1 0

- 2 0

- 2 2

M A N

5 8 8 8

6 0 8 3

7 2 4 2

7 1 0 0

7 0 0 0

6 8 1 0

7 3 8 2

7 0 0 0

7 1 0 0

7 1 0 0

6 8 0 0

6 9 0 0

7 0 0 0

4 1 1

3 3

1 9 1

- 2 0

- 1 4

6 1

8 4

- 5 2

1 4

0 0

- 4 2

1 5

1 4

S A S K

5 9 0 7

7 0 3 1

9 9 6 8

7 5 0 0

7 7 0 0

6 5 5 8

7 4 9 7

7 9 0 0

8 0 0 0

7 6 0 0

7 9 0 0

7 7 0 0

7 6 0 0

5 2 8

1 9 0

4 1 8

- 2 4 8

2 7

- 4 0 7

1 4 3

5 4

1 3

- 5 0

3 9

- 2 5

- 1 3

A L T A

2 7 0 8 8

2 5 7 0 4

3 3 3 9 6

3 3 8 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 3 7 2 5

3 9 1 6 2

3 1 4 0 0

3 0 9 0 0

3 4 0 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 4 2 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 3 5

- 5 1

2 9 9

1 2

1 8

- 2 2

1 6 1

- 1 9 8

- 1 6

1 0 0

1 2

- 0 6

2 3

B C

2 6 4 7 9

2 6 4 0 0

2 7 4 6 5

2 7 1 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 4 0 3 6

2 5 2 7 3

2 9 5 0 0

2 9 5 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 3 0 0

6 4 7

- 0 3

4 0

- 1 3

5 5

- 1 8

5 1

1 6 7

0 0

- 2 7

- 0 3

0 3

- 1 4

C A N

1 8 9 9 3 0

1 9 3 9 5 0

2 1 4 8 2 7

1 8 2 8 0 0

1 8 6 6 0 0

1 7 5 4 5 6

1 8 5 5 3 5

1 8 5 3 0 0

1 8 5 1 0 0

1 8 6 7 0 0

1 8 8 6 0 0

1

8 6 8 0 0

1 8 4 5 0 0

2 7 4

2 1

1 0 8

- 1 4 9

2 1

- 1 3 8

5 7

- 0 1

- 0 1

0 8

1 0

- 1 0

- 1 3

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1

8 8 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6

0 0 - 2

0 7 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8

0 0 u n

i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 5: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

all 2012 Rental Market SurveyImproving economic conditions in

the second hal o 2013 and 2014are expected in part to providegreater support to rental demandover the orecast horizon leading

to the slight decline in vacancyrates that is expected in 2013and 2014

CMHCrsquos all 2012 Rental MarketSurvey also covered condominiumapartments oered or rent in

11 major centres8 Vacancy rates orrental condominiums essentially heldsteady in most centres rom October2011 including Montreal Toronto

Edmonton Winnipeg and Vancouver

Typically the vacancy rates or rentalcondominiums are higher than

vacancy rates or purpose-builtrental apartments

Low vacancy rates o purpose-builtrental apartments over the orecast

horizon are expected to helpsupport multiple-unit housingconstruction particularly in 2014through the expansion o the rental

condominium market

rsks t th otlk This outlook is subject to somerisks including

Mortgage interest rates are still

near their historical low Shouldmortgage interest rates risesooner or aster than expected

by potential buyers and existingmortgage holders this could

lead to a lower level o activityin Canadarsquos housing market and

generate some nancial risksor the more heavily indebtedhomeowner households in the

medium to longer term

Despite recent improvements inthe growth o household credit

elevated levels o household debtand house prices in some urbancentres have made the countryrsquoseconomy more vulnerable to

some economic shocks I interestrates or unemployment were toincrease sharply and signicantly

some o the more heavily indebtedhouseholds could be orced toliquidate some o their assetsincluding their home This could

put downward pressure on houseprices and more generally onhousing market activity Althoughthis risk can arise in the shorter

term its impact would not be

immediate on most indebtedhouseholds because o the

prevalence o xed mortgageterms

Recent levels o units under

construction may impact theinventory o completed andunabsorbed units in the short tomedium term Should the inventory

o new units increase inordinatelybuilders may delay or reduce the

size o some construction projectsThis could lead to a sharper-than-expected moderation in unit starts

A more protracted European

crisis or a more muted recoveryin the US or weaker growth inemerging markets could negatively

impact Canadarsquos net exports andthe countryrsquos overall economicoutlook A stronger-than-expectedUS economic recovery or

stronger growth in emergingcountries could positively impactCanadian economic growthcontributing to a higher level

o activity in Canadarsquos housingmarkets

8 CMHCrsquos Rental Market Survey covers condominium apartments oered or rent in Victoria Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Regina Saskatoon Winnipeg TorontoOttawa Montreacuteal and Queacutebec

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

td gc

Ky facts and th ffcts n hsng stats

Mtgag ats Mortgage rates are expected to increase gradually and steadily over the orecast horizon

However they will remain low by historical standards Current mortgage rates are supportiveo housing demand

emplymnt The labour market has gotten o to a slower than expected start in 2013 with employmentgrowing in the rst six months at a little over hal the rate in 2011 and 2012 Neverthelessemployment is expected to improve during the course o the year and is orecast to grow14 per cent in both 2013 and 2014 which will support Canadarsquos housing sector

incm Growth in incomes is expected to continue albeit at a moderate pace on account o modesteconomic growth in Canada and global markets As a result income growth will remainsupportive o housing demand over the orecast horizon

Nt mgatn Canadarsquos economy is expected to continue to perorm well relative to its peer countries

Canada should thereore continue to attract a high level o immigrants (net internationalmigration) over the orecast horizon which will support housing demand in the medium tolong term

Pplatn9 Lower population growth among the 25 to 34 year age group is expected to lead to a slightmoderation in demand rom rst-time home buyers this year and over the longer termFurthermore Canadarsquos low birth rate should lessen the demand or additional housing stock inthe medium and longer term Population aging however is likely to impact the type and tenureo housing demanded

rsal makt Resale market conditions or 2013 and 2014 are expected to be balanced in most local marketsNevertheless some price momentum will see the average MLSreg price grow roughly in line with

infation in 2013 and 2014Vacancy ats10 The average vacancy rates o purpose-built rental apartments across Canadarsquos metropolitan

centres is expected to decline slightly to 25 per cent in 2013 and remain at that level in 2014Lower vacancy rates or purpose-built rental apartments over the orecast horizon are expectedto help support multiple-unit housing construction particularly in 2014 through the expansiono the rental condominium market

Stck f nand nccpdnts

The stock o unabsorbed new housing units has been stable in the second quarter o 2013indicating continued strength in demand or newly completed homes In addition the ratio o thestock o unabsorbed new units to population a simple gauge to assess potential over-building isclose to the historical average Nevertheless should the inventory increase inordinately buildersmay delay or reduce the size o some housing projects This could lead to a sharper-than-

expected moderation

9 Demographic orecasts are based on Statistics Canadarsquos medium-growth population projection

10 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

btsh Clma

ovv

British Columbiarsquos economy is orecastto expand 19 per cent in 2013 and25 per cent in 2014 slightly ahead o the national average Modest growth

in consumer spending and businessinvestment are expected to contributeto economic growth Population and

employment growth are orecast tohelp increase consumer spendingwhile a weaker Canadian dollar andincreasing demand rom the US is

expected to boost provincial exportsGrowth in exports will supportbusiness investment

British Columbiarsquos labour marketconditions are orecast to improvein 2014 with employment growth

increasing to 15 per cent next yearrom 04 per cent in 2013 This yearrsquosshit to higher levels o ull-timeemployment will carry over into 2014

An increase in ull-time employmentwill support wage growth andhomeownership demand

Demographic trends support arising level o housing demand inthe province Migration rom other

countries partly oset by peoplemoving to other provinces isexpected to add 38000 people thisyear and 41300 people next year

As well population projections byage group indicate a larger number o people in the 25 to 44 year age range

which has traditionally contributedto rst-time home buyer demand11

Population growth in this age rangeis projected to increase rom

11 per cent in 2012 to 18 per centby 2017 up rom less than one percent per annum during the previous

ve-year period The resulting growth

in population combined with strongeremployment growth will push housingsales and starts higher next year

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached startsare projected to rise to 9000 units in

2013 and 9900 units in 2014 Growthin demand or new single-detachedhomes will shit rom urban to rural

BC in 2014 refecting both lowerland costs and rising resource sectoremployment

Multiple Starts British Columbiarsquosmulti-amily starts will ease slightlyto 18100 units in 2013 due to risinginventories and increased competition

rom a well-supplied resale market orcondominium apartments Multi-amilystarts are orecast to edge higher in

2014 increasing to 18700 units as

demand strengthens and inventorieso new completed and unoccupiedunits are drawn lower Multi-amily

construction in the province has beensupported by low vacancy rates inthe rental sector and demand rom

buyers seeking less costly and lowermaintenance alternatives to single-detached housing Expect smallerphased projects to continue to get

under way in housing markets outsideo Vancouver with an increase inlarger multi-amily projects starting

construction in Vancouver includingseveral intended or the rental market

Resales MLSreg sales are orecast to

increase to 70100 in 2013 and 77000in 2014 Demand will be broad-baseduelled by rising employment coupled

with low interest rates ample supplyand stable prices

Prices Expect rising new listings in line

with stronger existing home sales tokeep price growth in check this yearand next The average residential MLSreg

price in British Columbia is orecast to

edge higher with projected increases

below the pace o consumer priceinfation The average price is orecast

at $518300 in 2013 and $523200in 2014

British Columbia Starts (000s)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 27100 or 2013 and 28600 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 26400-27800 units or 2013 and 25700-31500 or 2014

Figure 1

11 BC Stats population projections show annual growth o the 25 to 44 year age category adding on average 18700 persons this year and next Source PEOPLE2012 CMHC calculations

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Alta

ovv

Flooding in Alberta during the montho June damaged many homes and

businesses as well as inrastructureWhile the ull extent o the economic

damage will not be determinedor some time it is expected thatthe fooding will have a short-termnegative impact on economic activity

in 2013 However Albertarsquos real GDPwill still increase by 20 per cent asother actors such as investments in

the energy industry will help keepoverall growth positive Looking aheadfood remediation expenditures and

related activities will provide a boostto the economy helping Albertarsquos realGDP increase by 30 in 2014

Fundamental drivers o housingsuch as household ormationpopulation and employment growthwill continue to propel Albertarsquos

housing markets over the orecasthorizon Employment is projectedto increase by 20 per cent in2013 and 21 per cent in 2014

An expanding labour orce will keepthe unemployment rate around46 per cent through 2014 Tight

labour market conditions and risingwages will continue to be a draw ormigrants and support housing demand

The population o Alberta increasedby over 3 per cent in 2012 andis expected to continue to grow

substantially supported by migrationNet migration to Alberta is projected

to remain elevated at 75900 in 2013and 63000 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached stars

are projected to rise to 18200 unitsin 2013 and to 18900 units in 2014The rising level o sales in the resale

market is supportive o new homeconstruction as some buyers will look to new construction to meet their

needs Some food damaged homeswill be demolished and replaced butmost o the housing that is currently

being built or food impactedhouseholds is temporary As theoundation or temporary housingis not permanent those units will

not be counted as a housing start

Multiple Starts Multi-amily startsare orecast at 15600 units in 2013

and 15500 units in 2014 O Albertarsquosseven largest centres only Calgaryis projected to experience a decline

in multi-amily starts in 2013 atershowing an elevated level o activityin 2012 In 2014 multi-amily starts inEdmonton are expected to decline

ater two consecutive years o strong production The changes in

production in Edmonton and Calgaryare expected to somewhat oset each

other and keep multi-amily startsrelatively stable over the orecastperiod

Resales Infows o migrants andull-time job growth are increasinghousing demand and liting MLSreg sales

which are projected to increase to62700 in 2013 and to 64200 in 2014Flooding in Alberta has impacted

some real estate markets some to alarger extent than others howeverreal estate activity is expected to

normalize with time

Prices The average MLSreg pricein Alberta is orecast to increase

36 per cent to $376300 in 2013 and

then rise 24 per cent to $385300in 2014 Higher demand relative tosupply is putting upward pressure

on prices and real estate valuesare projected to increase over theorecast period

Alberta Starts (000s)

0

5

10

15

2025

30

35

40

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 2

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 33800 or 2013 and 34400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 33000-34600 units or 2013 and 30800-38000 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Saskatchan

ovv

Saskatchewanrsquos real GDP is projectedto increase by 21 per cent in

2013 and by 28 per cent in 2014Economic growth in Saskatchewan is

expected to remain strong relativeto other provinces through 2014Saskatchewanrsquos international exportsare increasing this year as rising

exports o agricultural and mineralproducts have been more thanosetting a decline in energy products

Consumer spending will continue togrow supported by population andwage growth

Saskatchewanrsquos labour market willcontinue to grow with its expandingeconomy Employment is projected

to increase by 29 per cent in 2013and then by 17 per cent in 2014Employment gains are not currentlybeing met by a commensurate

increase in the labour orce and thisis keeping the unemployment ratelow is some parts o SaskatchewanThe unemployment rate at the

provincial level is orecast at 42 percent in 2013 and 43 per cent in 2014Saskatchewanrsquos unemployment rate

will remain the lowest o all provincesover the orecast period

Net migration to Saskatchewan

is projected to reach 11900 in2013 and 12100 in 2014 The vastmajority o Saskatchewanrsquos gains will

come rom international migrationInterprovincial migration is projected

to remain positive over the orecastperiod as economic opportunities

draw migrants rom other parts o Canada New household ormationand housing demand will continueto be supported by migration to

Saskatchewan but not to the sameextent as in 2012

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached startswill moderate to 4100 units in 2013

as high inventory levels continueto slow the pace o initiating newprojects While demand or newsingle-detached homes will remain

elevated the slower pace o absorptions at completion will bea constraining actor on starts this

year A slight increase to 4200 unitsis expected in 2014

Multiple Starts Following an increase

to 4797 units in 2012 multi-amilystarts are projected to decline to3400 units in 2013 due to risinginventory With absorptions lagging

completions this year inventory isrising and will motivate home buildersto scale back production o multi-

amily units Multi-amily starts are

expected to edge higher in 2014to 3500 units

Resales MLSreg sales in Saskatchewanare orecast to moderate to13200 units in 2013 due to lower

net migration and rise modestlyto 13400 units in 2014 While theelevated number o 13950 resales in

2012 will not be surpassed over theorecast period MLSreg sales will remainelevated by historical standards

Prices The average MLSreg price inSaskatchewan is projected to rise to$288000 in 2013 rom $274268 in

2012 Balanced market conditionsover the orecast period are expectedto increase the average MLSreg price to$294100 in 2014

Saskatchewan Starts (000s)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7500 or 2013 and 7700 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 7300-7700 units or 2013 and

6900-8500 or 2014

Figure 3

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1033

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Manta

ovv

Manitobarsquos real GDP growth isprojected at 19 per cent in 2013

and 20 per cent in 2014 Capitalinvestment expenditures in the utility

sector mining oil and gas as wellas the manuacturing industry areexpected to be drivers o economicgrowth Expected stronger economic

growth in the United States in 2014may increase international tradebeyond the single digit growth

experienced thus ar in 2013

Economic activity in Manitoba is

projected to generate employmentgrowth o 10 per cent in 2013 and13 per cent in 2014 Manitobarsquoslabour orce is expected to increase

at a similar rate helping to keep theunemployment rate lower than thenational average and relatively stableat 53 per cent in 2013 and 2014

Net migration in Manitoba a keydriver o population growth and

housing demand is orecast to reach

8600 people in 2013 and edgelower to 8500 people in 2014 TheProvincial Nominee Program will

continue to encourage migrants torelocate to Manitoba and internationalmigration is expected to be a primarydriver o population growth and

new household ormation Howeverinternational gains will be reducedby interprovincial outfows primarily

to Alberta

in Dtal

Single Starts Manitobarsquos single-

detached housing starts are expectedto remain elevated at 4000 units in2013 and 4100 units in 2014 Wage

growth near infation and employmentgains will support demand or newhomes moving orward On the other

hand moderating net migration andrising supply levels will keep single-detached starts near the 4000 unitlevel over the orecast period

Multiple Starts Multi-amily startsare projected to slightly surpass

2012rsquos production and reach3100 units in 2013 Low vacancyrates across the province havesupported construction in the

rental sector Meanwhile demandor condominiums is being uelled byrst-time buyers and empty-nestersWith a growing number o units

under construction builders will easeproduction to 2900 units in 2014

Resales MLSreg sales are orecast tomoderate rom last yearrsquos record to13600 in 2013 beore reboundingslightly to 13700 in 2014 The move-

up buying segment o the market will

be supported by home equity gainsrom rising real estate values Demand

will also be bolstered by populationgrowth and employment gainsHowever these will be counteredby increased mortgage carrying

costs keeping sales below the2012 peak o 14008

Prices The average residential MLSreg price in Manitoba is orecast to riseto $256600 in 2013 ollowed by anincrease to $263000 in 2014 Slower

sales combined with a slight increasein new listings will result in a higherinventory o active listings particularly

in Winnipeg This will help to easesellersrsquo market conditions in Winnipegand reduce upward pressure on pricegrowth over the orecast period

Manitoba Starts (000s)

0

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7100 or 2013 and 7000 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 6900-7300 units or 2013 and

6300-7700 or 2014

Figure 4

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1133

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

onta

ovv

Ontariorsquos economy will grow at amodest pace o 15 per cent this year

beore gaining momentum in 2014with growth o 26 per cent Next

year would be the rst time in over adecade that Ontario outpaces overallgrowth in Canada Consumer andpublic sector spending will contribute

less to economic growth Insteadimproving business investmentnon-residential construction and

trade will drive Ontariorsquos economysupported in part by a relativelycheaper Canadian dollar According

to consensus among Canadianorecasters the US economy isexpected to gain strength againstother global economies by 2014

This is expected to support Ontariorsquostrade sector

Ontario employment growth will

strengthen to 17 per cent by nextyear and will ollow in the ootstepso an improving economy Ontariorsquosunemployment rate will decline

relative to most other provinceswhich will support a stronger paceo income growth in 2014

As Ontario gradually closes theeconomic growth gap with otherregions migratory outfows to

other parts o Canada will lessenSimilarly international migration willprovide some underlying support to

population growth as Ontariorsquos shareo international migration moves

higher and closer to historic normsNet migration to Ontario will

rise rom 83100 people to over93600 people in 2014

Against the improving backdrop

Ontario residential constructionwill slow down this year beorestabilizing in 2014 Starts will decline

to 58600 units in 2013 beorereaching 59400 units next yearResale activity will hold up betterover the orecast horizon but

will not reach the peak o 2007Modest job growth relative to therecent past better supplied resale

markets and a high level o apartmentunits under construction will restraingrowth in housing starts over theorecast horizon

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached starts

are orecast at 23000 and 23900units in 2013 and 2014 respectivelyLow inventories o unsold homesand tighter resale market conditions

will allow detached construction topost some growth over the orecasthorizon relative to higher density

housing construction

Multiple Starts Multi-amily homeconstruction will slow to 35600 units

this year beore stabilizing at 35500units in 2014 Apartment starts willalso moderate in 2013 as apartment

demand slows beore stabilizingin 2014 More choice in the resalemarket will dampen demand or

new condominiums Furthermore ahigh level o apartment units underconstruction is generating capacityconstraints or the industry - making

it dicult or new projects tocommence construction

Resales Existing home sales willreach 195400 units this year justshy o 2012 levels Ater trendinglower since the spring o 2012

existing home sales have stabilizedand are expected to graduallyimprove over the orecast horizon

reaching 202800 units in 2014More condominium completionscoupled with the resale marketrsquosprice advantage will provide more

choice to potential home buyers

Prices A balanced Ontario resale

market suggests prices will grow inline with the general rate o infation

over the orecast horizon In additionshiting preerences rom expensive

to inexpensive housing will also exertdownward pressure on average pricesover the next ew years Ontarioaverage home prices will grow to

$397400 and $404400 in 2013and 2014 respectively

Ontario Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 58600 or 2013 and 59400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 57000-60200 units or 2013 and

53200-65600 or 2014

Figure 5

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1233

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Qc

ovv

In Quebec relatively slow economicand employment growth will reduce

demand o existing and new homesthis year Easing resale markets and

relatively high inventories o newdwellings will signicantly lowerhousing starts in 2013 Nonethelessdemographic trends will support

housing demand into 2014 at whichtime a strengthening economy andtightening resale markets will energize

both the resale and new housingmarkets

On the economic ront Quebecrsquoslabour markets still eel the impacts o a slow recovery south o the borderand o more avourable employment

prospects in western Canada Whilebusiness investment has increasedsolidly rms have ocused on xedcapital rather than on hiring For this

reason employment will progress at arelatively slow pace in 2013 and 2014(14 per cent each year) Meanwhilepublic and consumer spending have

increased moderately while exportlevels remained stable GDP growth o between 15 and 22 per cent growth

is expected during the orecasthorizon

Demographic trends will continue

to support the provincersquos housingmarkets in the next two yearsSustained immigration to the province

will still have a positive impact ondemand in the rental market as

fows are expected to remain stableover the orecast horizon Total

net migration is expected to reachrespectively 44700 and 45300persons in 2013 and 2014 Whilemoderating demand rom younger

households cools rst-time buyingpopulation aging will prompt some

older households to re-enter themarket in response to their evolvinghousing needs

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 moderate jobgrowth the continued easing o the

resale market which is expectedto attract a greater part o housingdemand and the trend toward multi-amily dwelling will contribute to

reduce single starts and translateinto a total o 13700 single-detachedhomes started In 2014 a tighter

resale market will bring some supportto the new housing market segmentwhich is expected to result in14100 single starts

Multiple Starts The trend towardthe multi-amily market segment is

explained by its relative aordability

the changing needs o an agingpopulation and by densicationtrends Fuelled by the popularity o

condominium apartments supply inthis market segment has increasedsignicantly As a result o threeyears o sustained construction rom

2010 to 2012 market conditions inthis market have eased signicantly

Starts o multi-amily dwellings willthus decrease considerably this yearMultiple starts will descend below the25000 level in 2013 and rise to the

25700 mark in 2014

Resales While holding steady in 2012

sales recorded by Centrisreg12 havebeen recently declining as a resulto the overall economic contextdiscussed previously Despite a certain

rebound expected in the secondhal o this year resales will come inat a lower level this year For 2013

73000 such transactions are orecastAs buying conditions improve totalresales will be back in growth modenext year In total 75700 Centrisreg

sales are orecast or 2014

Prices Relatively lower demand orresale homes combined with rising

supply has taken pressure o price

growth in recent quarters and shouldcontinue to do so throughout this

coming year With a return to morebalanced conditions price growthin the resale market will continueto moderate in 2013 The average

price recorded by Centrisreg will reach$269100 in 2013 and $272000next year

Quebec Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 38500 or 2013 and 39800 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 37500-39500 units or 2013 and 35600-44000 or 2014

Figure 6

12 The Centrisreg system contains all the listings o Quebec real estate brokers

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1333

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

N bnsck

ovv

GDP growth is expected to remainweak over the orecast period with

03 per cent growth orecast or theprovince in 2013 and 10 per cent in

2014 The current weakness stemsrom a reduction in capital investmentThe natural resources sector a keydriver or economic growth in the

province is also expected to postmixed results in 2013

New Brunswick labour marketconditions will remain relatively sotas employment growth is projected

to decline 04 per cent in 2013 andrise 05 per cent in 2014 Slow growthin the labour orce will leave theunemployment rate at 108 per cent

over the next two years

The economic prospects or theprovince are also being held back by

slower population growth and risingout-migration Net migration is notexpected to improve signicantly

in 2013 or 2014 as international

migration is expected to remain weak and interprovincial migration althoughnot as negative as the level reported

in 2012 will not turn positive over theorecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts Rising out-migrationin some centres combined withweakened employment conditions

will have a dampening eect on

housing market activity in 2013 and2014 Single starts are orecast todecline to 1200 units in 2013 and

to 1100 units in 2014

Multiple Starts Stronger building

activity in the rental market duringthe past three years particularlyin Moncton and Fredericton hasresulted in rising vacancy rates

With an expectation that vacancyrates in New Brunswickrsquos three largesturban centers will continue to risein 2013 and 2014 developers are

expected to become more cautiousleading to a reduction in apartmentstarts As a result multiple starts areexpected to decline to 1300 units

in 2013 with a urther decline to1050 units in 2014

Resales Overall market conditionscontinue to benet potential homebuyers in 2013 as many segmentso the market have shited towards

buyerrsquos market conditions Withexpected declines in employmentin 2013 and rising out-migrationdemand is not expected to increase

substantially over the orecast periodConsequently MLSreg sales shoulddecline to 6000 units in 2013 with a

urther decline to 5800 in 2014

Prices The inventory o availablehomes is expected to remain at

historically high levels in NewBrunswickrsquos large urban centresin 2013 and 2014 This will impact

the level o price growth The MLSreg average price is expected to decreaseto $161000 in 2013 and again to$160500 in 2014

New Brunswick Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 2500 or 2013 and 2150 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2175-2825 units or 2013 and

1500-2800 or 2014

Figure 7

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1433

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nva Scta

ovv

The province o Nova Scotia isexpected to record economic

growth o 10 per cent in 2013 and15 per cent in 2014 Economic

conditions are expected to slowlyimprove over the orecast periodHaliaxrsquos shipbuilding industry willadd to growth as current and uture

construction repair and maintenanceprojects are expected to createeconomic activity over the short

and medium term The energy sectorwill add to provincial production inthe second hal o 2013The benets

o a lower Canadian dollar will also beelt by companies exporting materialsand goods

Nova Scotia labour market conditionswill remain stable in 2013 asemployment growth is projected torise 04 per cent this year compared

to growth o 06 per cent in 2012In 2014 the rise in growth will be to09 per cent as a result o a moderaterise in private sector investment

activity A similar level in the growtho the labour orce in 2013 and 2014will leave the unemployment rate

close to 90 per cent in both years

For 2013 interprovincial migration willmoderate to close to 4000 people

as was reported in 2012 The level o interprovincial migration will remainnegative in 2014 at close to -2000

people The level o internationalmigration will drop close to -2000 in

2013 and -1350 in 2014 As a resultnet-migration will remain negative at

-2000 in 2013 and -750 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 modestemployment growth and shitingconsumer demand will result in a

decline in single-detached startsto 1840 units For 2014 expecteconomic growth to stimulatedemand in the new homes market

resulting in a rise to 1975 single-detached starts in the province

Multiple Starts The provincialmulti-amily segment o themarket will continue to be drivenby apartment-style rental unit

construction most o which will takeplace in Haliax Demand or rentalhousing will be largely driven by anaging population base that is looking

to downsize or move to one-foorliving accommodations Expect semi-detached and row units to also remain

a popular alternative over the orecastperiod or rst-time home buyersMultiple starts will total 2185 unitsin 2013 beore declining to 2100

starts in 2014

Resales Following a slight increase

in 2012 MLSreg sales will decline in2013 to 9300 units In 2014 expecta smaller decline in provincialnet migration and an improving

employment outlook to result ina small reversal in MLSreg sales to9600 units

Prices The average sale price o anexisting home in Nova Scotia climbed37 per cent in 2012 to $220413In 2013 reduced demand will shit

market conditions towards a buyerrsquosmarket resulting in slowing pricegrowth o 07 per cent to $222000

In 2014 prices will increase to$226000 as improving economicactors will result in better marketconditions

Nova Scotia Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 4025 or 2013 and 4075 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 3525-4525 units or 2013 and 3075-5075 or 2014

Figure 8

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Pnc edad

island

ovv

Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic

growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent

declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the

prospects or manuacturing andexports

Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support

the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth

o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment

rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon

The economic prospects or the

province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012

Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about

500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts The slowdown in

population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units

in 2014

Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a

continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise

in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply

o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014

Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will

impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014

Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will

also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be

$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014

Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is

refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014

Figure 9

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nfndland and

Laad

ovv

Newoundland and Labrador will see

a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise

to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil

production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related

private sector investment activity

One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness

in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador

Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth

is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the

rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the

unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years

Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over

the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population

growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in

2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but

the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period

in Dtal

Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and

2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single

starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity

is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single

starts in 2014

Multiple Starts Multiple unit

construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast

period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014

Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a

decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to

improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net

migration increases

Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels

elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average

MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000

in 2014

Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)

00

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and

2200-3600 or 2014

Figure 10

13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Canada Starts (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 11

The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

3 6 0 6

3 4 8 8

3 8 8 5

3 0 5 0

2 9 0 0

2 7 2 6

3 0 6 9

3 4 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 8 0 0

3 3 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 8 0

- 3 3

1 1 4

- 2 1 5

- 4 9

- 2 4 7

1 2 6

1 0 8

- 1 1 8

- 6 7

1 7 9

- 9 1

- 1 6 7

P E I

7 5 6

9 4 0

9 4 1

8 0 0

7 0 0

9 2 0

7 5 7

7 7 5

7 5 5

6 5 0

7 4 0

7 4 5

6 6 5

- 1 3 8

2 4 3

0 1

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 5

- 4 0

- 1 7 7

2 4

- 2 6

- 1 3 9

1 3 8

0 7

- 1 0 7

N S

4 3 0 9

4 6 4 4

4 5 2 2

4 0 2 5

4 0 7 5

4 6 1 1

3 4 5 6

4 1 5 0

3 8 5 0

3 6 0 0

4 5 0 0

4 3 0 0

3 9 0 0

2 5 3

7 8

- 2 6

- 1 1 0

1 2

- 1 1 0

- 2 5 0

2 0 1

- 7 2

- 6 5

2 5 0

- 4 4

- 9 3

N B

4 1 0 1

3 4 5 2

3 2 9 9

2 5 0 0

2 1 5 0

3 4 2 9

2 9 0 4

1 9 0 0

1 7 7 5

1 7 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 6 5

-

1 5 8

- 4 4

- 2 4 2

- 1 4 0

1 6 3

- 1 5 3

- 3 4 6

- 6 6

- 4 2

4 1 2

4 2

- 2 0 0

Q U E

5 1 3 6 3

4 8 3 8 7

4 7 3 6 7

3 8 5 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 5 9 2 6

3 8 1 0 4

3 9 8 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

3 9 7 5 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

1 8 3

- 5 8

- 2 1

- 1 8 7

3 4

- 2 0 3

6 1

4 5

0 5

- 0 6

0 1

0 0

0 0

O N T

6 0 4 3 3

6 7 8 2 1

7 6 7 4 2

5 8 6 0 0

5 9 4 0 0

5 6 7 1 5

5 7 9 3 1

5 9 4 5 0

6 0 2 5 0

6 0 8 0 0

6 0 2 0 0

5 9 0 0 0

5 7 7 0 0

2 0 0

1 2 2

1 3 2

- 2 3 6

1 4

- 1 8 2

2 1

2 6

1 3

0 9

- 1 0

- 2 0

- 2 2

M A N

5 8 8 8

6 0 8 3

7 2 4 2

7 1 0 0

7 0 0 0

6 8 1 0

7 3 8 2

7 0 0 0

7 1 0 0

7 1 0 0

6 8 0 0

6 9 0 0

7 0 0 0

4 1 1

3 3

1 9 1

- 2 0

- 1 4

6 1

8 4

- 5 2

1 4

0 0

- 4 2

1 5

1 4

S A S K

5 9 0 7

7 0 3 1

9 9 6 8

7 5 0 0

7 7 0 0

6 5 5 8

7 4 9 7

7 9 0 0

8 0 0 0

7 6 0 0

7 9 0 0

7 7 0 0

7 6 0 0

5 2 8

1 9 0

4 1 8

- 2 4 8

2 7

- 4 0 7

1 4 3

5 4

1 3

- 5 0

3 9

- 2 5

- 1 3

A L T A

2 7 0 8 8

2 5 7 0 4

3 3 3 9 6

3 3 8 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 3 7 2 5

3 9 1 6 2

3 1 4 0 0

3 0 9 0 0

3 4 0 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 4 2 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 3 5

- 5 1

2 9 9

1 2

1 8

- 2 2

1 6 1

- 1 9 8

- 1 6

1 0 0

1 2

- 0 6

2 3

B C

2 6 4 7 9

2 6 4 0 0

2 7 4 6 5

2 7 1 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 4 0 3 6

2 5 2 7 3

2 9 5 0 0

2 9 5 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 3 0 0

6 4 7

- 0 3

4 0

- 1 3

5 5

- 1 8

5 1

1 6 7

0 0

- 2 7

- 0 3

0 3

- 1 4

C A N

1 8 9 9 3 0

1 9 3 9 5 0

2 1 4 8 2 7

1 8 2 8 0 0

1 8 6 6 0 0

1 7 5 4 5 6

1 8 5 5 3 5

1 8 5 3 0 0

1 8 5 1 0 0

1 8 6 7 0 0

1 8 8 6 0 0

1

8 6 8 0 0

1 8 4 5 0 0

2 7 4

2 1

1 0 8

- 1 4 9

2 1

- 1 3 8

5 7

- 0 1

- 0 1

0 8

1 0

- 1 0

- 1 3

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1

8 8 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6

0 0 - 2

0 7 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8

0 0 u n

i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 6: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

td gc

Ky facts and th ffcts n hsng stats

Mtgag ats Mortgage rates are expected to increase gradually and steadily over the orecast horizon

However they will remain low by historical standards Current mortgage rates are supportiveo housing demand

emplymnt The labour market has gotten o to a slower than expected start in 2013 with employmentgrowing in the rst six months at a little over hal the rate in 2011 and 2012 Neverthelessemployment is expected to improve during the course o the year and is orecast to grow14 per cent in both 2013 and 2014 which will support Canadarsquos housing sector

incm Growth in incomes is expected to continue albeit at a moderate pace on account o modesteconomic growth in Canada and global markets As a result income growth will remainsupportive o housing demand over the orecast horizon

Nt mgatn Canadarsquos economy is expected to continue to perorm well relative to its peer countries

Canada should thereore continue to attract a high level o immigrants (net internationalmigration) over the orecast horizon which will support housing demand in the medium tolong term

Pplatn9 Lower population growth among the 25 to 34 year age group is expected to lead to a slightmoderation in demand rom rst-time home buyers this year and over the longer termFurthermore Canadarsquos low birth rate should lessen the demand or additional housing stock inthe medium and longer term Population aging however is likely to impact the type and tenureo housing demanded

rsal makt Resale market conditions or 2013 and 2014 are expected to be balanced in most local marketsNevertheless some price momentum will see the average MLSreg price grow roughly in line with

infation in 2013 and 2014Vacancy ats10 The average vacancy rates o purpose-built rental apartments across Canadarsquos metropolitan

centres is expected to decline slightly to 25 per cent in 2013 and remain at that level in 2014Lower vacancy rates or purpose-built rental apartments over the orecast horizon are expectedto help support multiple-unit housing construction particularly in 2014 through the expansiono the rental condominium market

Stck f nand nccpdnts

The stock o unabsorbed new housing units has been stable in the second quarter o 2013indicating continued strength in demand or newly completed homes In addition the ratio o thestock o unabsorbed new units to population a simple gauge to assess potential over-building isclose to the historical average Nevertheless should the inventory increase inordinately buildersmay delay or reduce the size o some housing projects This could lead to a sharper-than-

expected moderation

9 Demographic orecasts are based on Statistics Canadarsquos medium-growth population projection

10 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

btsh Clma

ovv

British Columbiarsquos economy is orecastto expand 19 per cent in 2013 and25 per cent in 2014 slightly ahead o the national average Modest growth

in consumer spending and businessinvestment are expected to contributeto economic growth Population and

employment growth are orecast tohelp increase consumer spendingwhile a weaker Canadian dollar andincreasing demand rom the US is

expected to boost provincial exportsGrowth in exports will supportbusiness investment

British Columbiarsquos labour marketconditions are orecast to improvein 2014 with employment growth

increasing to 15 per cent next yearrom 04 per cent in 2013 This yearrsquosshit to higher levels o ull-timeemployment will carry over into 2014

An increase in ull-time employmentwill support wage growth andhomeownership demand

Demographic trends support arising level o housing demand inthe province Migration rom other

countries partly oset by peoplemoving to other provinces isexpected to add 38000 people thisyear and 41300 people next year

As well population projections byage group indicate a larger number o people in the 25 to 44 year age range

which has traditionally contributedto rst-time home buyer demand11

Population growth in this age rangeis projected to increase rom

11 per cent in 2012 to 18 per centby 2017 up rom less than one percent per annum during the previous

ve-year period The resulting growth

in population combined with strongeremployment growth will push housingsales and starts higher next year

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached startsare projected to rise to 9000 units in

2013 and 9900 units in 2014 Growthin demand or new single-detachedhomes will shit rom urban to rural

BC in 2014 refecting both lowerland costs and rising resource sectoremployment

Multiple Starts British Columbiarsquosmulti-amily starts will ease slightlyto 18100 units in 2013 due to risinginventories and increased competition

rom a well-supplied resale market orcondominium apartments Multi-amilystarts are orecast to edge higher in

2014 increasing to 18700 units as

demand strengthens and inventorieso new completed and unoccupiedunits are drawn lower Multi-amily

construction in the province has beensupported by low vacancy rates inthe rental sector and demand rom

buyers seeking less costly and lowermaintenance alternatives to single-detached housing Expect smallerphased projects to continue to get

under way in housing markets outsideo Vancouver with an increase inlarger multi-amily projects starting

construction in Vancouver includingseveral intended or the rental market

Resales MLSreg sales are orecast to

increase to 70100 in 2013 and 77000in 2014 Demand will be broad-baseduelled by rising employment coupled

with low interest rates ample supplyand stable prices

Prices Expect rising new listings in line

with stronger existing home sales tokeep price growth in check this yearand next The average residential MLSreg

price in British Columbia is orecast to

edge higher with projected increases

below the pace o consumer priceinfation The average price is orecast

at $518300 in 2013 and $523200in 2014

British Columbia Starts (000s)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 27100 or 2013 and 28600 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 26400-27800 units or 2013 and 25700-31500 or 2014

Figure 1

11 BC Stats population projections show annual growth o the 25 to 44 year age category adding on average 18700 persons this year and next Source PEOPLE2012 CMHC calculations

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Alta

ovv

Flooding in Alberta during the montho June damaged many homes and

businesses as well as inrastructureWhile the ull extent o the economic

damage will not be determinedor some time it is expected thatthe fooding will have a short-termnegative impact on economic activity

in 2013 However Albertarsquos real GDPwill still increase by 20 per cent asother actors such as investments in

the energy industry will help keepoverall growth positive Looking aheadfood remediation expenditures and

related activities will provide a boostto the economy helping Albertarsquos realGDP increase by 30 in 2014

Fundamental drivers o housingsuch as household ormationpopulation and employment growthwill continue to propel Albertarsquos

housing markets over the orecasthorizon Employment is projectedto increase by 20 per cent in2013 and 21 per cent in 2014

An expanding labour orce will keepthe unemployment rate around46 per cent through 2014 Tight

labour market conditions and risingwages will continue to be a draw ormigrants and support housing demand

The population o Alberta increasedby over 3 per cent in 2012 andis expected to continue to grow

substantially supported by migrationNet migration to Alberta is projected

to remain elevated at 75900 in 2013and 63000 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached stars

are projected to rise to 18200 unitsin 2013 and to 18900 units in 2014The rising level o sales in the resale

market is supportive o new homeconstruction as some buyers will look to new construction to meet their

needs Some food damaged homeswill be demolished and replaced butmost o the housing that is currently

being built or food impactedhouseholds is temporary As theoundation or temporary housingis not permanent those units will

not be counted as a housing start

Multiple Starts Multi-amily startsare orecast at 15600 units in 2013

and 15500 units in 2014 O Albertarsquosseven largest centres only Calgaryis projected to experience a decline

in multi-amily starts in 2013 atershowing an elevated level o activityin 2012 In 2014 multi-amily starts inEdmonton are expected to decline

ater two consecutive years o strong production The changes in

production in Edmonton and Calgaryare expected to somewhat oset each

other and keep multi-amily startsrelatively stable over the orecastperiod

Resales Infows o migrants andull-time job growth are increasinghousing demand and liting MLSreg sales

which are projected to increase to62700 in 2013 and to 64200 in 2014Flooding in Alberta has impacted

some real estate markets some to alarger extent than others howeverreal estate activity is expected to

normalize with time

Prices The average MLSreg pricein Alberta is orecast to increase

36 per cent to $376300 in 2013 and

then rise 24 per cent to $385300in 2014 Higher demand relative tosupply is putting upward pressure

on prices and real estate valuesare projected to increase over theorecast period

Alberta Starts (000s)

0

5

10

15

2025

30

35

40

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 2

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 33800 or 2013 and 34400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 33000-34600 units or 2013 and 30800-38000 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Saskatchan

ovv

Saskatchewanrsquos real GDP is projectedto increase by 21 per cent in

2013 and by 28 per cent in 2014Economic growth in Saskatchewan is

expected to remain strong relativeto other provinces through 2014Saskatchewanrsquos international exportsare increasing this year as rising

exports o agricultural and mineralproducts have been more thanosetting a decline in energy products

Consumer spending will continue togrow supported by population andwage growth

Saskatchewanrsquos labour market willcontinue to grow with its expandingeconomy Employment is projected

to increase by 29 per cent in 2013and then by 17 per cent in 2014Employment gains are not currentlybeing met by a commensurate

increase in the labour orce and thisis keeping the unemployment ratelow is some parts o SaskatchewanThe unemployment rate at the

provincial level is orecast at 42 percent in 2013 and 43 per cent in 2014Saskatchewanrsquos unemployment rate

will remain the lowest o all provincesover the orecast period

Net migration to Saskatchewan

is projected to reach 11900 in2013 and 12100 in 2014 The vastmajority o Saskatchewanrsquos gains will

come rom international migrationInterprovincial migration is projected

to remain positive over the orecastperiod as economic opportunities

draw migrants rom other parts o Canada New household ormationand housing demand will continueto be supported by migration to

Saskatchewan but not to the sameextent as in 2012

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached startswill moderate to 4100 units in 2013

as high inventory levels continueto slow the pace o initiating newprojects While demand or newsingle-detached homes will remain

elevated the slower pace o absorptions at completion will bea constraining actor on starts this

year A slight increase to 4200 unitsis expected in 2014

Multiple Starts Following an increase

to 4797 units in 2012 multi-amilystarts are projected to decline to3400 units in 2013 due to risinginventory With absorptions lagging

completions this year inventory isrising and will motivate home buildersto scale back production o multi-

amily units Multi-amily starts are

expected to edge higher in 2014to 3500 units

Resales MLSreg sales in Saskatchewanare orecast to moderate to13200 units in 2013 due to lower

net migration and rise modestlyto 13400 units in 2014 While theelevated number o 13950 resales in

2012 will not be surpassed over theorecast period MLSreg sales will remainelevated by historical standards

Prices The average MLSreg price inSaskatchewan is projected to rise to$288000 in 2013 rom $274268 in

2012 Balanced market conditionsover the orecast period are expectedto increase the average MLSreg price to$294100 in 2014

Saskatchewan Starts (000s)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7500 or 2013 and 7700 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 7300-7700 units or 2013 and

6900-8500 or 2014

Figure 3

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1033

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Manta

ovv

Manitobarsquos real GDP growth isprojected at 19 per cent in 2013

and 20 per cent in 2014 Capitalinvestment expenditures in the utility

sector mining oil and gas as wellas the manuacturing industry areexpected to be drivers o economicgrowth Expected stronger economic

growth in the United States in 2014may increase international tradebeyond the single digit growth

experienced thus ar in 2013

Economic activity in Manitoba is

projected to generate employmentgrowth o 10 per cent in 2013 and13 per cent in 2014 Manitobarsquoslabour orce is expected to increase

at a similar rate helping to keep theunemployment rate lower than thenational average and relatively stableat 53 per cent in 2013 and 2014

Net migration in Manitoba a keydriver o population growth and

housing demand is orecast to reach

8600 people in 2013 and edgelower to 8500 people in 2014 TheProvincial Nominee Program will

continue to encourage migrants torelocate to Manitoba and internationalmigration is expected to be a primarydriver o population growth and

new household ormation Howeverinternational gains will be reducedby interprovincial outfows primarily

to Alberta

in Dtal

Single Starts Manitobarsquos single-

detached housing starts are expectedto remain elevated at 4000 units in2013 and 4100 units in 2014 Wage

growth near infation and employmentgains will support demand or newhomes moving orward On the other

hand moderating net migration andrising supply levels will keep single-detached starts near the 4000 unitlevel over the orecast period

Multiple Starts Multi-amily startsare projected to slightly surpass

2012rsquos production and reach3100 units in 2013 Low vacancyrates across the province havesupported construction in the

rental sector Meanwhile demandor condominiums is being uelled byrst-time buyers and empty-nestersWith a growing number o units

under construction builders will easeproduction to 2900 units in 2014

Resales MLSreg sales are orecast tomoderate rom last yearrsquos record to13600 in 2013 beore reboundingslightly to 13700 in 2014 The move-

up buying segment o the market will

be supported by home equity gainsrom rising real estate values Demand

will also be bolstered by populationgrowth and employment gainsHowever these will be counteredby increased mortgage carrying

costs keeping sales below the2012 peak o 14008

Prices The average residential MLSreg price in Manitoba is orecast to riseto $256600 in 2013 ollowed by anincrease to $263000 in 2014 Slower

sales combined with a slight increasein new listings will result in a higherinventory o active listings particularly

in Winnipeg This will help to easesellersrsquo market conditions in Winnipegand reduce upward pressure on pricegrowth over the orecast period

Manitoba Starts (000s)

0

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7100 or 2013 and 7000 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 6900-7300 units or 2013 and

6300-7700 or 2014

Figure 4

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1133

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

onta

ovv

Ontariorsquos economy will grow at amodest pace o 15 per cent this year

beore gaining momentum in 2014with growth o 26 per cent Next

year would be the rst time in over adecade that Ontario outpaces overallgrowth in Canada Consumer andpublic sector spending will contribute

less to economic growth Insteadimproving business investmentnon-residential construction and

trade will drive Ontariorsquos economysupported in part by a relativelycheaper Canadian dollar According

to consensus among Canadianorecasters the US economy isexpected to gain strength againstother global economies by 2014

This is expected to support Ontariorsquostrade sector

Ontario employment growth will

strengthen to 17 per cent by nextyear and will ollow in the ootstepso an improving economy Ontariorsquosunemployment rate will decline

relative to most other provinceswhich will support a stronger paceo income growth in 2014

As Ontario gradually closes theeconomic growth gap with otherregions migratory outfows to

other parts o Canada will lessenSimilarly international migration willprovide some underlying support to

population growth as Ontariorsquos shareo international migration moves

higher and closer to historic normsNet migration to Ontario will

rise rom 83100 people to over93600 people in 2014

Against the improving backdrop

Ontario residential constructionwill slow down this year beorestabilizing in 2014 Starts will decline

to 58600 units in 2013 beorereaching 59400 units next yearResale activity will hold up betterover the orecast horizon but

will not reach the peak o 2007Modest job growth relative to therecent past better supplied resale

markets and a high level o apartmentunits under construction will restraingrowth in housing starts over theorecast horizon

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached starts

are orecast at 23000 and 23900units in 2013 and 2014 respectivelyLow inventories o unsold homesand tighter resale market conditions

will allow detached construction topost some growth over the orecasthorizon relative to higher density

housing construction

Multiple Starts Multi-amily homeconstruction will slow to 35600 units

this year beore stabilizing at 35500units in 2014 Apartment starts willalso moderate in 2013 as apartment

demand slows beore stabilizingin 2014 More choice in the resalemarket will dampen demand or

new condominiums Furthermore ahigh level o apartment units underconstruction is generating capacityconstraints or the industry - making

it dicult or new projects tocommence construction

Resales Existing home sales willreach 195400 units this year justshy o 2012 levels Ater trendinglower since the spring o 2012

existing home sales have stabilizedand are expected to graduallyimprove over the orecast horizon

reaching 202800 units in 2014More condominium completionscoupled with the resale marketrsquosprice advantage will provide more

choice to potential home buyers

Prices A balanced Ontario resale

market suggests prices will grow inline with the general rate o infation

over the orecast horizon In additionshiting preerences rom expensive

to inexpensive housing will also exertdownward pressure on average pricesover the next ew years Ontarioaverage home prices will grow to

$397400 and $404400 in 2013and 2014 respectively

Ontario Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 58600 or 2013 and 59400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 57000-60200 units or 2013 and

53200-65600 or 2014

Figure 5

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1233

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Qc

ovv

In Quebec relatively slow economicand employment growth will reduce

demand o existing and new homesthis year Easing resale markets and

relatively high inventories o newdwellings will signicantly lowerhousing starts in 2013 Nonethelessdemographic trends will support

housing demand into 2014 at whichtime a strengthening economy andtightening resale markets will energize

both the resale and new housingmarkets

On the economic ront Quebecrsquoslabour markets still eel the impacts o a slow recovery south o the borderand o more avourable employment

prospects in western Canada Whilebusiness investment has increasedsolidly rms have ocused on xedcapital rather than on hiring For this

reason employment will progress at arelatively slow pace in 2013 and 2014(14 per cent each year) Meanwhilepublic and consumer spending have

increased moderately while exportlevels remained stable GDP growth o between 15 and 22 per cent growth

is expected during the orecasthorizon

Demographic trends will continue

to support the provincersquos housingmarkets in the next two yearsSustained immigration to the province

will still have a positive impact ondemand in the rental market as

fows are expected to remain stableover the orecast horizon Total

net migration is expected to reachrespectively 44700 and 45300persons in 2013 and 2014 Whilemoderating demand rom younger

households cools rst-time buyingpopulation aging will prompt some

older households to re-enter themarket in response to their evolvinghousing needs

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 moderate jobgrowth the continued easing o the

resale market which is expectedto attract a greater part o housingdemand and the trend toward multi-amily dwelling will contribute to

reduce single starts and translateinto a total o 13700 single-detachedhomes started In 2014 a tighter

resale market will bring some supportto the new housing market segmentwhich is expected to result in14100 single starts

Multiple Starts The trend towardthe multi-amily market segment is

explained by its relative aordability

the changing needs o an agingpopulation and by densicationtrends Fuelled by the popularity o

condominium apartments supply inthis market segment has increasedsignicantly As a result o threeyears o sustained construction rom

2010 to 2012 market conditions inthis market have eased signicantly

Starts o multi-amily dwellings willthus decrease considerably this yearMultiple starts will descend below the25000 level in 2013 and rise to the

25700 mark in 2014

Resales While holding steady in 2012

sales recorded by Centrisreg12 havebeen recently declining as a resulto the overall economic contextdiscussed previously Despite a certain

rebound expected in the secondhal o this year resales will come inat a lower level this year For 2013

73000 such transactions are orecastAs buying conditions improve totalresales will be back in growth modenext year In total 75700 Centrisreg

sales are orecast or 2014

Prices Relatively lower demand orresale homes combined with rising

supply has taken pressure o price

growth in recent quarters and shouldcontinue to do so throughout this

coming year With a return to morebalanced conditions price growthin the resale market will continueto moderate in 2013 The average

price recorded by Centrisreg will reach$269100 in 2013 and $272000next year

Quebec Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 38500 or 2013 and 39800 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 37500-39500 units or 2013 and 35600-44000 or 2014

Figure 6

12 The Centrisreg system contains all the listings o Quebec real estate brokers

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1333

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

N bnsck

ovv

GDP growth is expected to remainweak over the orecast period with

03 per cent growth orecast or theprovince in 2013 and 10 per cent in

2014 The current weakness stemsrom a reduction in capital investmentThe natural resources sector a keydriver or economic growth in the

province is also expected to postmixed results in 2013

New Brunswick labour marketconditions will remain relatively sotas employment growth is projected

to decline 04 per cent in 2013 andrise 05 per cent in 2014 Slow growthin the labour orce will leave theunemployment rate at 108 per cent

over the next two years

The economic prospects or theprovince are also being held back by

slower population growth and risingout-migration Net migration is notexpected to improve signicantly

in 2013 or 2014 as international

migration is expected to remain weak and interprovincial migration althoughnot as negative as the level reported

in 2012 will not turn positive over theorecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts Rising out-migrationin some centres combined withweakened employment conditions

will have a dampening eect on

housing market activity in 2013 and2014 Single starts are orecast todecline to 1200 units in 2013 and

to 1100 units in 2014

Multiple Starts Stronger building

activity in the rental market duringthe past three years particularlyin Moncton and Fredericton hasresulted in rising vacancy rates

With an expectation that vacancyrates in New Brunswickrsquos three largesturban centers will continue to risein 2013 and 2014 developers are

expected to become more cautiousleading to a reduction in apartmentstarts As a result multiple starts areexpected to decline to 1300 units

in 2013 with a urther decline to1050 units in 2014

Resales Overall market conditionscontinue to benet potential homebuyers in 2013 as many segmentso the market have shited towards

buyerrsquos market conditions Withexpected declines in employmentin 2013 and rising out-migrationdemand is not expected to increase

substantially over the orecast periodConsequently MLSreg sales shoulddecline to 6000 units in 2013 with a

urther decline to 5800 in 2014

Prices The inventory o availablehomes is expected to remain at

historically high levels in NewBrunswickrsquos large urban centresin 2013 and 2014 This will impact

the level o price growth The MLSreg average price is expected to decreaseto $161000 in 2013 and again to$160500 in 2014

New Brunswick Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 2500 or 2013 and 2150 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2175-2825 units or 2013 and

1500-2800 or 2014

Figure 7

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1433

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nva Scta

ovv

The province o Nova Scotia isexpected to record economic

growth o 10 per cent in 2013 and15 per cent in 2014 Economic

conditions are expected to slowlyimprove over the orecast periodHaliaxrsquos shipbuilding industry willadd to growth as current and uture

construction repair and maintenanceprojects are expected to createeconomic activity over the short

and medium term The energy sectorwill add to provincial production inthe second hal o 2013The benets

o a lower Canadian dollar will also beelt by companies exporting materialsand goods

Nova Scotia labour market conditionswill remain stable in 2013 asemployment growth is projected torise 04 per cent this year compared

to growth o 06 per cent in 2012In 2014 the rise in growth will be to09 per cent as a result o a moderaterise in private sector investment

activity A similar level in the growtho the labour orce in 2013 and 2014will leave the unemployment rate

close to 90 per cent in both years

For 2013 interprovincial migration willmoderate to close to 4000 people

as was reported in 2012 The level o interprovincial migration will remainnegative in 2014 at close to -2000

people The level o internationalmigration will drop close to -2000 in

2013 and -1350 in 2014 As a resultnet-migration will remain negative at

-2000 in 2013 and -750 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 modestemployment growth and shitingconsumer demand will result in a

decline in single-detached startsto 1840 units For 2014 expecteconomic growth to stimulatedemand in the new homes market

resulting in a rise to 1975 single-detached starts in the province

Multiple Starts The provincialmulti-amily segment o themarket will continue to be drivenby apartment-style rental unit

construction most o which will takeplace in Haliax Demand or rentalhousing will be largely driven by anaging population base that is looking

to downsize or move to one-foorliving accommodations Expect semi-detached and row units to also remain

a popular alternative over the orecastperiod or rst-time home buyersMultiple starts will total 2185 unitsin 2013 beore declining to 2100

starts in 2014

Resales Following a slight increase

in 2012 MLSreg sales will decline in2013 to 9300 units In 2014 expecta smaller decline in provincialnet migration and an improving

employment outlook to result ina small reversal in MLSreg sales to9600 units

Prices The average sale price o anexisting home in Nova Scotia climbed37 per cent in 2012 to $220413In 2013 reduced demand will shit

market conditions towards a buyerrsquosmarket resulting in slowing pricegrowth o 07 per cent to $222000

In 2014 prices will increase to$226000 as improving economicactors will result in better marketconditions

Nova Scotia Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 4025 or 2013 and 4075 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 3525-4525 units or 2013 and 3075-5075 or 2014

Figure 8

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Pnc edad

island

ovv

Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic

growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent

declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the

prospects or manuacturing andexports

Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support

the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth

o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment

rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon

The economic prospects or the

province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012

Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about

500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts The slowdown in

population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units

in 2014

Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a

continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise

in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply

o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014

Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will

impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014

Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will

also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be

$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014

Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is

refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014

Figure 9

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nfndland and

Laad

ovv

Newoundland and Labrador will see

a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise

to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil

production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related

private sector investment activity

One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness

in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador

Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth

is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the

rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the

unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years

Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over

the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population

growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in

2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but

the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period

in Dtal

Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and

2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single

starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity

is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single

starts in 2014

Multiple Starts Multiple unit

construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast

period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014

Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a

decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to

improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net

migration increases

Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels

elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average

MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000

in 2014

Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)

00

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and

2200-3600 or 2014

Figure 10

13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Canada Starts (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 11

The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

3 6 0 6

3 4 8 8

3 8 8 5

3 0 5 0

2 9 0 0

2 7 2 6

3 0 6 9

3 4 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 8 0 0

3 3 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 8 0

- 3 3

1 1 4

- 2 1 5

- 4 9

- 2 4 7

1 2 6

1 0 8

- 1 1 8

- 6 7

1 7 9

- 9 1

- 1 6 7

P E I

7 5 6

9 4 0

9 4 1

8 0 0

7 0 0

9 2 0

7 5 7

7 7 5

7 5 5

6 5 0

7 4 0

7 4 5

6 6 5

- 1 3 8

2 4 3

0 1

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 5

- 4 0

- 1 7 7

2 4

- 2 6

- 1 3 9

1 3 8

0 7

- 1 0 7

N S

4 3 0 9

4 6 4 4

4 5 2 2

4 0 2 5

4 0 7 5

4 6 1 1

3 4 5 6

4 1 5 0

3 8 5 0

3 6 0 0

4 5 0 0

4 3 0 0

3 9 0 0

2 5 3

7 8

- 2 6

- 1 1 0

1 2

- 1 1 0

- 2 5 0

2 0 1

- 7 2

- 6 5

2 5 0

- 4 4

- 9 3

N B

4 1 0 1

3 4 5 2

3 2 9 9

2 5 0 0

2 1 5 0

3 4 2 9

2 9 0 4

1 9 0 0

1 7 7 5

1 7 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 6 5

-

1 5 8

- 4 4

- 2 4 2

- 1 4 0

1 6 3

- 1 5 3

- 3 4 6

- 6 6

- 4 2

4 1 2

4 2

- 2 0 0

Q U E

5 1 3 6 3

4 8 3 8 7

4 7 3 6 7

3 8 5 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 5 9 2 6

3 8 1 0 4

3 9 8 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

3 9 7 5 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

1 8 3

- 5 8

- 2 1

- 1 8 7

3 4

- 2 0 3

6 1

4 5

0 5

- 0 6

0 1

0 0

0 0

O N T

6 0 4 3 3

6 7 8 2 1

7 6 7 4 2

5 8 6 0 0

5 9 4 0 0

5 6 7 1 5

5 7 9 3 1

5 9 4 5 0

6 0 2 5 0

6 0 8 0 0

6 0 2 0 0

5 9 0 0 0

5 7 7 0 0

2 0 0

1 2 2

1 3 2

- 2 3 6

1 4

- 1 8 2

2 1

2 6

1 3

0 9

- 1 0

- 2 0

- 2 2

M A N

5 8 8 8

6 0 8 3

7 2 4 2

7 1 0 0

7 0 0 0

6 8 1 0

7 3 8 2

7 0 0 0

7 1 0 0

7 1 0 0

6 8 0 0

6 9 0 0

7 0 0 0

4 1 1

3 3

1 9 1

- 2 0

- 1 4

6 1

8 4

- 5 2

1 4

0 0

- 4 2

1 5

1 4

S A S K

5 9 0 7

7 0 3 1

9 9 6 8

7 5 0 0

7 7 0 0

6 5 5 8

7 4 9 7

7 9 0 0

8 0 0 0

7 6 0 0

7 9 0 0

7 7 0 0

7 6 0 0

5 2 8

1 9 0

4 1 8

- 2 4 8

2 7

- 4 0 7

1 4 3

5 4

1 3

- 5 0

3 9

- 2 5

- 1 3

A L T A

2 7 0 8 8

2 5 7 0 4

3 3 3 9 6

3 3 8 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 3 7 2 5

3 9 1 6 2

3 1 4 0 0

3 0 9 0 0

3 4 0 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 4 2 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 3 5

- 5 1

2 9 9

1 2

1 8

- 2 2

1 6 1

- 1 9 8

- 1 6

1 0 0

1 2

- 0 6

2 3

B C

2 6 4 7 9

2 6 4 0 0

2 7 4 6 5

2 7 1 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 4 0 3 6

2 5 2 7 3

2 9 5 0 0

2 9 5 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 3 0 0

6 4 7

- 0 3

4 0

- 1 3

5 5

- 1 8

5 1

1 6 7

0 0

- 2 7

- 0 3

0 3

- 1 4

C A N

1 8 9 9 3 0

1 9 3 9 5 0

2 1 4 8 2 7

1 8 2 8 0 0

1 8 6 6 0 0

1 7 5 4 5 6

1 8 5 5 3 5

1 8 5 3 0 0

1 8 5 1 0 0

1 8 6 7 0 0

1 8 8 6 0 0

1

8 6 8 0 0

1 8 4 5 0 0

2 7 4

2 1

1 0 8

- 1 4 9

2 1

- 1 3 8

5 7

- 0 1

- 0 1

0 8

1 0

- 1 0

- 1 3

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1

8 8 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6

0 0 - 2

0 7 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8

0 0 u n

i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 7: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

btsh Clma

ovv

British Columbiarsquos economy is orecastto expand 19 per cent in 2013 and25 per cent in 2014 slightly ahead o the national average Modest growth

in consumer spending and businessinvestment are expected to contributeto economic growth Population and

employment growth are orecast tohelp increase consumer spendingwhile a weaker Canadian dollar andincreasing demand rom the US is

expected to boost provincial exportsGrowth in exports will supportbusiness investment

British Columbiarsquos labour marketconditions are orecast to improvein 2014 with employment growth

increasing to 15 per cent next yearrom 04 per cent in 2013 This yearrsquosshit to higher levels o ull-timeemployment will carry over into 2014

An increase in ull-time employmentwill support wage growth andhomeownership demand

Demographic trends support arising level o housing demand inthe province Migration rom other

countries partly oset by peoplemoving to other provinces isexpected to add 38000 people thisyear and 41300 people next year

As well population projections byage group indicate a larger number o people in the 25 to 44 year age range

which has traditionally contributedto rst-time home buyer demand11

Population growth in this age rangeis projected to increase rom

11 per cent in 2012 to 18 per centby 2017 up rom less than one percent per annum during the previous

ve-year period The resulting growth

in population combined with strongeremployment growth will push housingsales and starts higher next year

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached startsare projected to rise to 9000 units in

2013 and 9900 units in 2014 Growthin demand or new single-detachedhomes will shit rom urban to rural

BC in 2014 refecting both lowerland costs and rising resource sectoremployment

Multiple Starts British Columbiarsquosmulti-amily starts will ease slightlyto 18100 units in 2013 due to risinginventories and increased competition

rom a well-supplied resale market orcondominium apartments Multi-amilystarts are orecast to edge higher in

2014 increasing to 18700 units as

demand strengthens and inventorieso new completed and unoccupiedunits are drawn lower Multi-amily

construction in the province has beensupported by low vacancy rates inthe rental sector and demand rom

buyers seeking less costly and lowermaintenance alternatives to single-detached housing Expect smallerphased projects to continue to get

under way in housing markets outsideo Vancouver with an increase inlarger multi-amily projects starting

construction in Vancouver includingseveral intended or the rental market

Resales MLSreg sales are orecast to

increase to 70100 in 2013 and 77000in 2014 Demand will be broad-baseduelled by rising employment coupled

with low interest rates ample supplyand stable prices

Prices Expect rising new listings in line

with stronger existing home sales tokeep price growth in check this yearand next The average residential MLSreg

price in British Columbia is orecast to

edge higher with projected increases

below the pace o consumer priceinfation The average price is orecast

at $518300 in 2013 and $523200in 2014

British Columbia Starts (000s)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 27100 or 2013 and 28600 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 26400-27800 units or 2013 and 25700-31500 or 2014

Figure 1

11 BC Stats population projections show annual growth o the 25 to 44 year age category adding on average 18700 persons this year and next Source PEOPLE2012 CMHC calculations

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Alta

ovv

Flooding in Alberta during the montho June damaged many homes and

businesses as well as inrastructureWhile the ull extent o the economic

damage will not be determinedor some time it is expected thatthe fooding will have a short-termnegative impact on economic activity

in 2013 However Albertarsquos real GDPwill still increase by 20 per cent asother actors such as investments in

the energy industry will help keepoverall growth positive Looking aheadfood remediation expenditures and

related activities will provide a boostto the economy helping Albertarsquos realGDP increase by 30 in 2014

Fundamental drivers o housingsuch as household ormationpopulation and employment growthwill continue to propel Albertarsquos

housing markets over the orecasthorizon Employment is projectedto increase by 20 per cent in2013 and 21 per cent in 2014

An expanding labour orce will keepthe unemployment rate around46 per cent through 2014 Tight

labour market conditions and risingwages will continue to be a draw ormigrants and support housing demand

The population o Alberta increasedby over 3 per cent in 2012 andis expected to continue to grow

substantially supported by migrationNet migration to Alberta is projected

to remain elevated at 75900 in 2013and 63000 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached stars

are projected to rise to 18200 unitsin 2013 and to 18900 units in 2014The rising level o sales in the resale

market is supportive o new homeconstruction as some buyers will look to new construction to meet their

needs Some food damaged homeswill be demolished and replaced butmost o the housing that is currently

being built or food impactedhouseholds is temporary As theoundation or temporary housingis not permanent those units will

not be counted as a housing start

Multiple Starts Multi-amily startsare orecast at 15600 units in 2013

and 15500 units in 2014 O Albertarsquosseven largest centres only Calgaryis projected to experience a decline

in multi-amily starts in 2013 atershowing an elevated level o activityin 2012 In 2014 multi-amily starts inEdmonton are expected to decline

ater two consecutive years o strong production The changes in

production in Edmonton and Calgaryare expected to somewhat oset each

other and keep multi-amily startsrelatively stable over the orecastperiod

Resales Infows o migrants andull-time job growth are increasinghousing demand and liting MLSreg sales

which are projected to increase to62700 in 2013 and to 64200 in 2014Flooding in Alberta has impacted

some real estate markets some to alarger extent than others howeverreal estate activity is expected to

normalize with time

Prices The average MLSreg pricein Alberta is orecast to increase

36 per cent to $376300 in 2013 and

then rise 24 per cent to $385300in 2014 Higher demand relative tosupply is putting upward pressure

on prices and real estate valuesare projected to increase over theorecast period

Alberta Starts (000s)

0

5

10

15

2025

30

35

40

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 2

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 33800 or 2013 and 34400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 33000-34600 units or 2013 and 30800-38000 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Saskatchan

ovv

Saskatchewanrsquos real GDP is projectedto increase by 21 per cent in

2013 and by 28 per cent in 2014Economic growth in Saskatchewan is

expected to remain strong relativeto other provinces through 2014Saskatchewanrsquos international exportsare increasing this year as rising

exports o agricultural and mineralproducts have been more thanosetting a decline in energy products

Consumer spending will continue togrow supported by population andwage growth

Saskatchewanrsquos labour market willcontinue to grow with its expandingeconomy Employment is projected

to increase by 29 per cent in 2013and then by 17 per cent in 2014Employment gains are not currentlybeing met by a commensurate

increase in the labour orce and thisis keeping the unemployment ratelow is some parts o SaskatchewanThe unemployment rate at the

provincial level is orecast at 42 percent in 2013 and 43 per cent in 2014Saskatchewanrsquos unemployment rate

will remain the lowest o all provincesover the orecast period

Net migration to Saskatchewan

is projected to reach 11900 in2013 and 12100 in 2014 The vastmajority o Saskatchewanrsquos gains will

come rom international migrationInterprovincial migration is projected

to remain positive over the orecastperiod as economic opportunities

draw migrants rom other parts o Canada New household ormationand housing demand will continueto be supported by migration to

Saskatchewan but not to the sameextent as in 2012

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached startswill moderate to 4100 units in 2013

as high inventory levels continueto slow the pace o initiating newprojects While demand or newsingle-detached homes will remain

elevated the slower pace o absorptions at completion will bea constraining actor on starts this

year A slight increase to 4200 unitsis expected in 2014

Multiple Starts Following an increase

to 4797 units in 2012 multi-amilystarts are projected to decline to3400 units in 2013 due to risinginventory With absorptions lagging

completions this year inventory isrising and will motivate home buildersto scale back production o multi-

amily units Multi-amily starts are

expected to edge higher in 2014to 3500 units

Resales MLSreg sales in Saskatchewanare orecast to moderate to13200 units in 2013 due to lower

net migration and rise modestlyto 13400 units in 2014 While theelevated number o 13950 resales in

2012 will not be surpassed over theorecast period MLSreg sales will remainelevated by historical standards

Prices The average MLSreg price inSaskatchewan is projected to rise to$288000 in 2013 rom $274268 in

2012 Balanced market conditionsover the orecast period are expectedto increase the average MLSreg price to$294100 in 2014

Saskatchewan Starts (000s)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7500 or 2013 and 7700 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 7300-7700 units or 2013 and

6900-8500 or 2014

Figure 3

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1033

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Manta

ovv

Manitobarsquos real GDP growth isprojected at 19 per cent in 2013

and 20 per cent in 2014 Capitalinvestment expenditures in the utility

sector mining oil and gas as wellas the manuacturing industry areexpected to be drivers o economicgrowth Expected stronger economic

growth in the United States in 2014may increase international tradebeyond the single digit growth

experienced thus ar in 2013

Economic activity in Manitoba is

projected to generate employmentgrowth o 10 per cent in 2013 and13 per cent in 2014 Manitobarsquoslabour orce is expected to increase

at a similar rate helping to keep theunemployment rate lower than thenational average and relatively stableat 53 per cent in 2013 and 2014

Net migration in Manitoba a keydriver o population growth and

housing demand is orecast to reach

8600 people in 2013 and edgelower to 8500 people in 2014 TheProvincial Nominee Program will

continue to encourage migrants torelocate to Manitoba and internationalmigration is expected to be a primarydriver o population growth and

new household ormation Howeverinternational gains will be reducedby interprovincial outfows primarily

to Alberta

in Dtal

Single Starts Manitobarsquos single-

detached housing starts are expectedto remain elevated at 4000 units in2013 and 4100 units in 2014 Wage

growth near infation and employmentgains will support demand or newhomes moving orward On the other

hand moderating net migration andrising supply levels will keep single-detached starts near the 4000 unitlevel over the orecast period

Multiple Starts Multi-amily startsare projected to slightly surpass

2012rsquos production and reach3100 units in 2013 Low vacancyrates across the province havesupported construction in the

rental sector Meanwhile demandor condominiums is being uelled byrst-time buyers and empty-nestersWith a growing number o units

under construction builders will easeproduction to 2900 units in 2014

Resales MLSreg sales are orecast tomoderate rom last yearrsquos record to13600 in 2013 beore reboundingslightly to 13700 in 2014 The move-

up buying segment o the market will

be supported by home equity gainsrom rising real estate values Demand

will also be bolstered by populationgrowth and employment gainsHowever these will be counteredby increased mortgage carrying

costs keeping sales below the2012 peak o 14008

Prices The average residential MLSreg price in Manitoba is orecast to riseto $256600 in 2013 ollowed by anincrease to $263000 in 2014 Slower

sales combined with a slight increasein new listings will result in a higherinventory o active listings particularly

in Winnipeg This will help to easesellersrsquo market conditions in Winnipegand reduce upward pressure on pricegrowth over the orecast period

Manitoba Starts (000s)

0

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7100 or 2013 and 7000 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 6900-7300 units or 2013 and

6300-7700 or 2014

Figure 4

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1133

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

onta

ovv

Ontariorsquos economy will grow at amodest pace o 15 per cent this year

beore gaining momentum in 2014with growth o 26 per cent Next

year would be the rst time in over adecade that Ontario outpaces overallgrowth in Canada Consumer andpublic sector spending will contribute

less to economic growth Insteadimproving business investmentnon-residential construction and

trade will drive Ontariorsquos economysupported in part by a relativelycheaper Canadian dollar According

to consensus among Canadianorecasters the US economy isexpected to gain strength againstother global economies by 2014

This is expected to support Ontariorsquostrade sector

Ontario employment growth will

strengthen to 17 per cent by nextyear and will ollow in the ootstepso an improving economy Ontariorsquosunemployment rate will decline

relative to most other provinceswhich will support a stronger paceo income growth in 2014

As Ontario gradually closes theeconomic growth gap with otherregions migratory outfows to

other parts o Canada will lessenSimilarly international migration willprovide some underlying support to

population growth as Ontariorsquos shareo international migration moves

higher and closer to historic normsNet migration to Ontario will

rise rom 83100 people to over93600 people in 2014

Against the improving backdrop

Ontario residential constructionwill slow down this year beorestabilizing in 2014 Starts will decline

to 58600 units in 2013 beorereaching 59400 units next yearResale activity will hold up betterover the orecast horizon but

will not reach the peak o 2007Modest job growth relative to therecent past better supplied resale

markets and a high level o apartmentunits under construction will restraingrowth in housing starts over theorecast horizon

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached starts

are orecast at 23000 and 23900units in 2013 and 2014 respectivelyLow inventories o unsold homesand tighter resale market conditions

will allow detached construction topost some growth over the orecasthorizon relative to higher density

housing construction

Multiple Starts Multi-amily homeconstruction will slow to 35600 units

this year beore stabilizing at 35500units in 2014 Apartment starts willalso moderate in 2013 as apartment

demand slows beore stabilizingin 2014 More choice in the resalemarket will dampen demand or

new condominiums Furthermore ahigh level o apartment units underconstruction is generating capacityconstraints or the industry - making

it dicult or new projects tocommence construction

Resales Existing home sales willreach 195400 units this year justshy o 2012 levels Ater trendinglower since the spring o 2012

existing home sales have stabilizedand are expected to graduallyimprove over the orecast horizon

reaching 202800 units in 2014More condominium completionscoupled with the resale marketrsquosprice advantage will provide more

choice to potential home buyers

Prices A balanced Ontario resale

market suggests prices will grow inline with the general rate o infation

over the orecast horizon In additionshiting preerences rom expensive

to inexpensive housing will also exertdownward pressure on average pricesover the next ew years Ontarioaverage home prices will grow to

$397400 and $404400 in 2013and 2014 respectively

Ontario Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 58600 or 2013 and 59400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 57000-60200 units or 2013 and

53200-65600 or 2014

Figure 5

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1233

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Qc

ovv

In Quebec relatively slow economicand employment growth will reduce

demand o existing and new homesthis year Easing resale markets and

relatively high inventories o newdwellings will signicantly lowerhousing starts in 2013 Nonethelessdemographic trends will support

housing demand into 2014 at whichtime a strengthening economy andtightening resale markets will energize

both the resale and new housingmarkets

On the economic ront Quebecrsquoslabour markets still eel the impacts o a slow recovery south o the borderand o more avourable employment

prospects in western Canada Whilebusiness investment has increasedsolidly rms have ocused on xedcapital rather than on hiring For this

reason employment will progress at arelatively slow pace in 2013 and 2014(14 per cent each year) Meanwhilepublic and consumer spending have

increased moderately while exportlevels remained stable GDP growth o between 15 and 22 per cent growth

is expected during the orecasthorizon

Demographic trends will continue

to support the provincersquos housingmarkets in the next two yearsSustained immigration to the province

will still have a positive impact ondemand in the rental market as

fows are expected to remain stableover the orecast horizon Total

net migration is expected to reachrespectively 44700 and 45300persons in 2013 and 2014 Whilemoderating demand rom younger

households cools rst-time buyingpopulation aging will prompt some

older households to re-enter themarket in response to their evolvinghousing needs

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 moderate jobgrowth the continued easing o the

resale market which is expectedto attract a greater part o housingdemand and the trend toward multi-amily dwelling will contribute to

reduce single starts and translateinto a total o 13700 single-detachedhomes started In 2014 a tighter

resale market will bring some supportto the new housing market segmentwhich is expected to result in14100 single starts

Multiple Starts The trend towardthe multi-amily market segment is

explained by its relative aordability

the changing needs o an agingpopulation and by densicationtrends Fuelled by the popularity o

condominium apartments supply inthis market segment has increasedsignicantly As a result o threeyears o sustained construction rom

2010 to 2012 market conditions inthis market have eased signicantly

Starts o multi-amily dwellings willthus decrease considerably this yearMultiple starts will descend below the25000 level in 2013 and rise to the

25700 mark in 2014

Resales While holding steady in 2012

sales recorded by Centrisreg12 havebeen recently declining as a resulto the overall economic contextdiscussed previously Despite a certain

rebound expected in the secondhal o this year resales will come inat a lower level this year For 2013

73000 such transactions are orecastAs buying conditions improve totalresales will be back in growth modenext year In total 75700 Centrisreg

sales are orecast or 2014

Prices Relatively lower demand orresale homes combined with rising

supply has taken pressure o price

growth in recent quarters and shouldcontinue to do so throughout this

coming year With a return to morebalanced conditions price growthin the resale market will continueto moderate in 2013 The average

price recorded by Centrisreg will reach$269100 in 2013 and $272000next year

Quebec Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 38500 or 2013 and 39800 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 37500-39500 units or 2013 and 35600-44000 or 2014

Figure 6

12 The Centrisreg system contains all the listings o Quebec real estate brokers

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1333

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

N bnsck

ovv

GDP growth is expected to remainweak over the orecast period with

03 per cent growth orecast or theprovince in 2013 and 10 per cent in

2014 The current weakness stemsrom a reduction in capital investmentThe natural resources sector a keydriver or economic growth in the

province is also expected to postmixed results in 2013

New Brunswick labour marketconditions will remain relatively sotas employment growth is projected

to decline 04 per cent in 2013 andrise 05 per cent in 2014 Slow growthin the labour orce will leave theunemployment rate at 108 per cent

over the next two years

The economic prospects or theprovince are also being held back by

slower population growth and risingout-migration Net migration is notexpected to improve signicantly

in 2013 or 2014 as international

migration is expected to remain weak and interprovincial migration althoughnot as negative as the level reported

in 2012 will not turn positive over theorecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts Rising out-migrationin some centres combined withweakened employment conditions

will have a dampening eect on

housing market activity in 2013 and2014 Single starts are orecast todecline to 1200 units in 2013 and

to 1100 units in 2014

Multiple Starts Stronger building

activity in the rental market duringthe past three years particularlyin Moncton and Fredericton hasresulted in rising vacancy rates

With an expectation that vacancyrates in New Brunswickrsquos three largesturban centers will continue to risein 2013 and 2014 developers are

expected to become more cautiousleading to a reduction in apartmentstarts As a result multiple starts areexpected to decline to 1300 units

in 2013 with a urther decline to1050 units in 2014

Resales Overall market conditionscontinue to benet potential homebuyers in 2013 as many segmentso the market have shited towards

buyerrsquos market conditions Withexpected declines in employmentin 2013 and rising out-migrationdemand is not expected to increase

substantially over the orecast periodConsequently MLSreg sales shoulddecline to 6000 units in 2013 with a

urther decline to 5800 in 2014

Prices The inventory o availablehomes is expected to remain at

historically high levels in NewBrunswickrsquos large urban centresin 2013 and 2014 This will impact

the level o price growth The MLSreg average price is expected to decreaseto $161000 in 2013 and again to$160500 in 2014

New Brunswick Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 2500 or 2013 and 2150 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2175-2825 units or 2013 and

1500-2800 or 2014

Figure 7

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1433

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nva Scta

ovv

The province o Nova Scotia isexpected to record economic

growth o 10 per cent in 2013 and15 per cent in 2014 Economic

conditions are expected to slowlyimprove over the orecast periodHaliaxrsquos shipbuilding industry willadd to growth as current and uture

construction repair and maintenanceprojects are expected to createeconomic activity over the short

and medium term The energy sectorwill add to provincial production inthe second hal o 2013The benets

o a lower Canadian dollar will also beelt by companies exporting materialsand goods

Nova Scotia labour market conditionswill remain stable in 2013 asemployment growth is projected torise 04 per cent this year compared

to growth o 06 per cent in 2012In 2014 the rise in growth will be to09 per cent as a result o a moderaterise in private sector investment

activity A similar level in the growtho the labour orce in 2013 and 2014will leave the unemployment rate

close to 90 per cent in both years

For 2013 interprovincial migration willmoderate to close to 4000 people

as was reported in 2012 The level o interprovincial migration will remainnegative in 2014 at close to -2000

people The level o internationalmigration will drop close to -2000 in

2013 and -1350 in 2014 As a resultnet-migration will remain negative at

-2000 in 2013 and -750 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 modestemployment growth and shitingconsumer demand will result in a

decline in single-detached startsto 1840 units For 2014 expecteconomic growth to stimulatedemand in the new homes market

resulting in a rise to 1975 single-detached starts in the province

Multiple Starts The provincialmulti-amily segment o themarket will continue to be drivenby apartment-style rental unit

construction most o which will takeplace in Haliax Demand or rentalhousing will be largely driven by anaging population base that is looking

to downsize or move to one-foorliving accommodations Expect semi-detached and row units to also remain

a popular alternative over the orecastperiod or rst-time home buyersMultiple starts will total 2185 unitsin 2013 beore declining to 2100

starts in 2014

Resales Following a slight increase

in 2012 MLSreg sales will decline in2013 to 9300 units In 2014 expecta smaller decline in provincialnet migration and an improving

employment outlook to result ina small reversal in MLSreg sales to9600 units

Prices The average sale price o anexisting home in Nova Scotia climbed37 per cent in 2012 to $220413In 2013 reduced demand will shit

market conditions towards a buyerrsquosmarket resulting in slowing pricegrowth o 07 per cent to $222000

In 2014 prices will increase to$226000 as improving economicactors will result in better marketconditions

Nova Scotia Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 4025 or 2013 and 4075 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 3525-4525 units or 2013 and 3075-5075 or 2014

Figure 8

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Pnc edad

island

ovv

Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic

growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent

declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the

prospects or manuacturing andexports

Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support

the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth

o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment

rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon

The economic prospects or the

province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012

Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about

500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts The slowdown in

population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units

in 2014

Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a

continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise

in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply

o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014

Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will

impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014

Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will

also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be

$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014

Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is

refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014

Figure 9

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nfndland and

Laad

ovv

Newoundland and Labrador will see

a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise

to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil

production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related

private sector investment activity

One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness

in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador

Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth

is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the

rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the

unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years

Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over

the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population

growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in

2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but

the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period

in Dtal

Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and

2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single

starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity

is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single

starts in 2014

Multiple Starts Multiple unit

construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast

period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014

Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a

decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to

improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net

migration increases

Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels

elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average

MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000

in 2014

Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)

00

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and

2200-3600 or 2014

Figure 10

13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Canada Starts (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 11

The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

3 6 0 6

3 4 8 8

3 8 8 5

3 0 5 0

2 9 0 0

2 7 2 6

3 0 6 9

3 4 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 8 0 0

3 3 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 8 0

- 3 3

1 1 4

- 2 1 5

- 4 9

- 2 4 7

1 2 6

1 0 8

- 1 1 8

- 6 7

1 7 9

- 9 1

- 1 6 7

P E I

7 5 6

9 4 0

9 4 1

8 0 0

7 0 0

9 2 0

7 5 7

7 7 5

7 5 5

6 5 0

7 4 0

7 4 5

6 6 5

- 1 3 8

2 4 3

0 1

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 5

- 4 0

- 1 7 7

2 4

- 2 6

- 1 3 9

1 3 8

0 7

- 1 0 7

N S

4 3 0 9

4 6 4 4

4 5 2 2

4 0 2 5

4 0 7 5

4 6 1 1

3 4 5 6

4 1 5 0

3 8 5 0

3 6 0 0

4 5 0 0

4 3 0 0

3 9 0 0

2 5 3

7 8

- 2 6

- 1 1 0

1 2

- 1 1 0

- 2 5 0

2 0 1

- 7 2

- 6 5

2 5 0

- 4 4

- 9 3

N B

4 1 0 1

3 4 5 2

3 2 9 9

2 5 0 0

2 1 5 0

3 4 2 9

2 9 0 4

1 9 0 0

1 7 7 5

1 7 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 6 5

-

1 5 8

- 4 4

- 2 4 2

- 1 4 0

1 6 3

- 1 5 3

- 3 4 6

- 6 6

- 4 2

4 1 2

4 2

- 2 0 0

Q U E

5 1 3 6 3

4 8 3 8 7

4 7 3 6 7

3 8 5 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 5 9 2 6

3 8 1 0 4

3 9 8 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

3 9 7 5 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

1 8 3

- 5 8

- 2 1

- 1 8 7

3 4

- 2 0 3

6 1

4 5

0 5

- 0 6

0 1

0 0

0 0

O N T

6 0 4 3 3

6 7 8 2 1

7 6 7 4 2

5 8 6 0 0

5 9 4 0 0

5 6 7 1 5

5 7 9 3 1

5 9 4 5 0

6 0 2 5 0

6 0 8 0 0

6 0 2 0 0

5 9 0 0 0

5 7 7 0 0

2 0 0

1 2 2

1 3 2

- 2 3 6

1 4

- 1 8 2

2 1

2 6

1 3

0 9

- 1 0

- 2 0

- 2 2

M A N

5 8 8 8

6 0 8 3

7 2 4 2

7 1 0 0

7 0 0 0

6 8 1 0

7 3 8 2

7 0 0 0

7 1 0 0

7 1 0 0

6 8 0 0

6 9 0 0

7 0 0 0

4 1 1

3 3

1 9 1

- 2 0

- 1 4

6 1

8 4

- 5 2

1 4

0 0

- 4 2

1 5

1 4

S A S K

5 9 0 7

7 0 3 1

9 9 6 8

7 5 0 0

7 7 0 0

6 5 5 8

7 4 9 7

7 9 0 0

8 0 0 0

7 6 0 0

7 9 0 0

7 7 0 0

7 6 0 0

5 2 8

1 9 0

4 1 8

- 2 4 8

2 7

- 4 0 7

1 4 3

5 4

1 3

- 5 0

3 9

- 2 5

- 1 3

A L T A

2 7 0 8 8

2 5 7 0 4

3 3 3 9 6

3 3 8 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 3 7 2 5

3 9 1 6 2

3 1 4 0 0

3 0 9 0 0

3 4 0 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 4 2 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 3 5

- 5 1

2 9 9

1 2

1 8

- 2 2

1 6 1

- 1 9 8

- 1 6

1 0 0

1 2

- 0 6

2 3

B C

2 6 4 7 9

2 6 4 0 0

2 7 4 6 5

2 7 1 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 4 0 3 6

2 5 2 7 3

2 9 5 0 0

2 9 5 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 3 0 0

6 4 7

- 0 3

4 0

- 1 3

5 5

- 1 8

5 1

1 6 7

0 0

- 2 7

- 0 3

0 3

- 1 4

C A N

1 8 9 9 3 0

1 9 3 9 5 0

2 1 4 8 2 7

1 8 2 8 0 0

1 8 6 6 0 0

1 7 5 4 5 6

1 8 5 5 3 5

1 8 5 3 0 0

1 8 5 1 0 0

1 8 6 7 0 0

1 8 8 6 0 0

1

8 6 8 0 0

1 8 4 5 0 0

2 7 4

2 1

1 0 8

- 1 4 9

2 1

- 1 3 8

5 7

- 0 1

- 0 1

0 8

1 0

- 1 0

- 1 3

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1

8 8 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6

0 0 - 2

0 7 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8

0 0 u n

i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 8: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Alta

ovv

Flooding in Alberta during the montho June damaged many homes and

businesses as well as inrastructureWhile the ull extent o the economic

damage will not be determinedor some time it is expected thatthe fooding will have a short-termnegative impact on economic activity

in 2013 However Albertarsquos real GDPwill still increase by 20 per cent asother actors such as investments in

the energy industry will help keepoverall growth positive Looking aheadfood remediation expenditures and

related activities will provide a boostto the economy helping Albertarsquos realGDP increase by 30 in 2014

Fundamental drivers o housingsuch as household ormationpopulation and employment growthwill continue to propel Albertarsquos

housing markets over the orecasthorizon Employment is projectedto increase by 20 per cent in2013 and 21 per cent in 2014

An expanding labour orce will keepthe unemployment rate around46 per cent through 2014 Tight

labour market conditions and risingwages will continue to be a draw ormigrants and support housing demand

The population o Alberta increasedby over 3 per cent in 2012 andis expected to continue to grow

substantially supported by migrationNet migration to Alberta is projected

to remain elevated at 75900 in 2013and 63000 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached stars

are projected to rise to 18200 unitsin 2013 and to 18900 units in 2014The rising level o sales in the resale

market is supportive o new homeconstruction as some buyers will look to new construction to meet their

needs Some food damaged homeswill be demolished and replaced butmost o the housing that is currently

being built or food impactedhouseholds is temporary As theoundation or temporary housingis not permanent those units will

not be counted as a housing start

Multiple Starts Multi-amily startsare orecast at 15600 units in 2013

and 15500 units in 2014 O Albertarsquosseven largest centres only Calgaryis projected to experience a decline

in multi-amily starts in 2013 atershowing an elevated level o activityin 2012 In 2014 multi-amily starts inEdmonton are expected to decline

ater two consecutive years o strong production The changes in

production in Edmonton and Calgaryare expected to somewhat oset each

other and keep multi-amily startsrelatively stable over the orecastperiod

Resales Infows o migrants andull-time job growth are increasinghousing demand and liting MLSreg sales

which are projected to increase to62700 in 2013 and to 64200 in 2014Flooding in Alberta has impacted

some real estate markets some to alarger extent than others howeverreal estate activity is expected to

normalize with time

Prices The average MLSreg pricein Alberta is orecast to increase

36 per cent to $376300 in 2013 and

then rise 24 per cent to $385300in 2014 Higher demand relative tosupply is putting upward pressure

on prices and real estate valuesare projected to increase over theorecast period

Alberta Starts (000s)

0

5

10

15

2025

30

35

40

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 2

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 33800 or 2013 and 34400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 33000-34600 units or 2013 and 30800-38000 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Saskatchan

ovv

Saskatchewanrsquos real GDP is projectedto increase by 21 per cent in

2013 and by 28 per cent in 2014Economic growth in Saskatchewan is

expected to remain strong relativeto other provinces through 2014Saskatchewanrsquos international exportsare increasing this year as rising

exports o agricultural and mineralproducts have been more thanosetting a decline in energy products

Consumer spending will continue togrow supported by population andwage growth

Saskatchewanrsquos labour market willcontinue to grow with its expandingeconomy Employment is projected

to increase by 29 per cent in 2013and then by 17 per cent in 2014Employment gains are not currentlybeing met by a commensurate

increase in the labour orce and thisis keeping the unemployment ratelow is some parts o SaskatchewanThe unemployment rate at the

provincial level is orecast at 42 percent in 2013 and 43 per cent in 2014Saskatchewanrsquos unemployment rate

will remain the lowest o all provincesover the orecast period

Net migration to Saskatchewan

is projected to reach 11900 in2013 and 12100 in 2014 The vastmajority o Saskatchewanrsquos gains will

come rom international migrationInterprovincial migration is projected

to remain positive over the orecastperiod as economic opportunities

draw migrants rom other parts o Canada New household ormationand housing demand will continueto be supported by migration to

Saskatchewan but not to the sameextent as in 2012

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached startswill moderate to 4100 units in 2013

as high inventory levels continueto slow the pace o initiating newprojects While demand or newsingle-detached homes will remain

elevated the slower pace o absorptions at completion will bea constraining actor on starts this

year A slight increase to 4200 unitsis expected in 2014

Multiple Starts Following an increase

to 4797 units in 2012 multi-amilystarts are projected to decline to3400 units in 2013 due to risinginventory With absorptions lagging

completions this year inventory isrising and will motivate home buildersto scale back production o multi-

amily units Multi-amily starts are

expected to edge higher in 2014to 3500 units

Resales MLSreg sales in Saskatchewanare orecast to moderate to13200 units in 2013 due to lower

net migration and rise modestlyto 13400 units in 2014 While theelevated number o 13950 resales in

2012 will not be surpassed over theorecast period MLSreg sales will remainelevated by historical standards

Prices The average MLSreg price inSaskatchewan is projected to rise to$288000 in 2013 rom $274268 in

2012 Balanced market conditionsover the orecast period are expectedto increase the average MLSreg price to$294100 in 2014

Saskatchewan Starts (000s)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7500 or 2013 and 7700 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 7300-7700 units or 2013 and

6900-8500 or 2014

Figure 3

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1033

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Manta

ovv

Manitobarsquos real GDP growth isprojected at 19 per cent in 2013

and 20 per cent in 2014 Capitalinvestment expenditures in the utility

sector mining oil and gas as wellas the manuacturing industry areexpected to be drivers o economicgrowth Expected stronger economic

growth in the United States in 2014may increase international tradebeyond the single digit growth

experienced thus ar in 2013

Economic activity in Manitoba is

projected to generate employmentgrowth o 10 per cent in 2013 and13 per cent in 2014 Manitobarsquoslabour orce is expected to increase

at a similar rate helping to keep theunemployment rate lower than thenational average and relatively stableat 53 per cent in 2013 and 2014

Net migration in Manitoba a keydriver o population growth and

housing demand is orecast to reach

8600 people in 2013 and edgelower to 8500 people in 2014 TheProvincial Nominee Program will

continue to encourage migrants torelocate to Manitoba and internationalmigration is expected to be a primarydriver o population growth and

new household ormation Howeverinternational gains will be reducedby interprovincial outfows primarily

to Alberta

in Dtal

Single Starts Manitobarsquos single-

detached housing starts are expectedto remain elevated at 4000 units in2013 and 4100 units in 2014 Wage

growth near infation and employmentgains will support demand or newhomes moving orward On the other

hand moderating net migration andrising supply levels will keep single-detached starts near the 4000 unitlevel over the orecast period

Multiple Starts Multi-amily startsare projected to slightly surpass

2012rsquos production and reach3100 units in 2013 Low vacancyrates across the province havesupported construction in the

rental sector Meanwhile demandor condominiums is being uelled byrst-time buyers and empty-nestersWith a growing number o units

under construction builders will easeproduction to 2900 units in 2014

Resales MLSreg sales are orecast tomoderate rom last yearrsquos record to13600 in 2013 beore reboundingslightly to 13700 in 2014 The move-

up buying segment o the market will

be supported by home equity gainsrom rising real estate values Demand

will also be bolstered by populationgrowth and employment gainsHowever these will be counteredby increased mortgage carrying

costs keeping sales below the2012 peak o 14008

Prices The average residential MLSreg price in Manitoba is orecast to riseto $256600 in 2013 ollowed by anincrease to $263000 in 2014 Slower

sales combined with a slight increasein new listings will result in a higherinventory o active listings particularly

in Winnipeg This will help to easesellersrsquo market conditions in Winnipegand reduce upward pressure on pricegrowth over the orecast period

Manitoba Starts (000s)

0

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7100 or 2013 and 7000 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 6900-7300 units or 2013 and

6300-7700 or 2014

Figure 4

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1133

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

onta

ovv

Ontariorsquos economy will grow at amodest pace o 15 per cent this year

beore gaining momentum in 2014with growth o 26 per cent Next

year would be the rst time in over adecade that Ontario outpaces overallgrowth in Canada Consumer andpublic sector spending will contribute

less to economic growth Insteadimproving business investmentnon-residential construction and

trade will drive Ontariorsquos economysupported in part by a relativelycheaper Canadian dollar According

to consensus among Canadianorecasters the US economy isexpected to gain strength againstother global economies by 2014

This is expected to support Ontariorsquostrade sector

Ontario employment growth will

strengthen to 17 per cent by nextyear and will ollow in the ootstepso an improving economy Ontariorsquosunemployment rate will decline

relative to most other provinceswhich will support a stronger paceo income growth in 2014

As Ontario gradually closes theeconomic growth gap with otherregions migratory outfows to

other parts o Canada will lessenSimilarly international migration willprovide some underlying support to

population growth as Ontariorsquos shareo international migration moves

higher and closer to historic normsNet migration to Ontario will

rise rom 83100 people to over93600 people in 2014

Against the improving backdrop

Ontario residential constructionwill slow down this year beorestabilizing in 2014 Starts will decline

to 58600 units in 2013 beorereaching 59400 units next yearResale activity will hold up betterover the orecast horizon but

will not reach the peak o 2007Modest job growth relative to therecent past better supplied resale

markets and a high level o apartmentunits under construction will restraingrowth in housing starts over theorecast horizon

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached starts

are orecast at 23000 and 23900units in 2013 and 2014 respectivelyLow inventories o unsold homesand tighter resale market conditions

will allow detached construction topost some growth over the orecasthorizon relative to higher density

housing construction

Multiple Starts Multi-amily homeconstruction will slow to 35600 units

this year beore stabilizing at 35500units in 2014 Apartment starts willalso moderate in 2013 as apartment

demand slows beore stabilizingin 2014 More choice in the resalemarket will dampen demand or

new condominiums Furthermore ahigh level o apartment units underconstruction is generating capacityconstraints or the industry - making

it dicult or new projects tocommence construction

Resales Existing home sales willreach 195400 units this year justshy o 2012 levels Ater trendinglower since the spring o 2012

existing home sales have stabilizedand are expected to graduallyimprove over the orecast horizon

reaching 202800 units in 2014More condominium completionscoupled with the resale marketrsquosprice advantage will provide more

choice to potential home buyers

Prices A balanced Ontario resale

market suggests prices will grow inline with the general rate o infation

over the orecast horizon In additionshiting preerences rom expensive

to inexpensive housing will also exertdownward pressure on average pricesover the next ew years Ontarioaverage home prices will grow to

$397400 and $404400 in 2013and 2014 respectively

Ontario Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 58600 or 2013 and 59400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 57000-60200 units or 2013 and

53200-65600 or 2014

Figure 5

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1233

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Qc

ovv

In Quebec relatively slow economicand employment growth will reduce

demand o existing and new homesthis year Easing resale markets and

relatively high inventories o newdwellings will signicantly lowerhousing starts in 2013 Nonethelessdemographic trends will support

housing demand into 2014 at whichtime a strengthening economy andtightening resale markets will energize

both the resale and new housingmarkets

On the economic ront Quebecrsquoslabour markets still eel the impacts o a slow recovery south o the borderand o more avourable employment

prospects in western Canada Whilebusiness investment has increasedsolidly rms have ocused on xedcapital rather than on hiring For this

reason employment will progress at arelatively slow pace in 2013 and 2014(14 per cent each year) Meanwhilepublic and consumer spending have

increased moderately while exportlevels remained stable GDP growth o between 15 and 22 per cent growth

is expected during the orecasthorizon

Demographic trends will continue

to support the provincersquos housingmarkets in the next two yearsSustained immigration to the province

will still have a positive impact ondemand in the rental market as

fows are expected to remain stableover the orecast horizon Total

net migration is expected to reachrespectively 44700 and 45300persons in 2013 and 2014 Whilemoderating demand rom younger

households cools rst-time buyingpopulation aging will prompt some

older households to re-enter themarket in response to their evolvinghousing needs

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 moderate jobgrowth the continued easing o the

resale market which is expectedto attract a greater part o housingdemand and the trend toward multi-amily dwelling will contribute to

reduce single starts and translateinto a total o 13700 single-detachedhomes started In 2014 a tighter

resale market will bring some supportto the new housing market segmentwhich is expected to result in14100 single starts

Multiple Starts The trend towardthe multi-amily market segment is

explained by its relative aordability

the changing needs o an agingpopulation and by densicationtrends Fuelled by the popularity o

condominium apartments supply inthis market segment has increasedsignicantly As a result o threeyears o sustained construction rom

2010 to 2012 market conditions inthis market have eased signicantly

Starts o multi-amily dwellings willthus decrease considerably this yearMultiple starts will descend below the25000 level in 2013 and rise to the

25700 mark in 2014

Resales While holding steady in 2012

sales recorded by Centrisreg12 havebeen recently declining as a resulto the overall economic contextdiscussed previously Despite a certain

rebound expected in the secondhal o this year resales will come inat a lower level this year For 2013

73000 such transactions are orecastAs buying conditions improve totalresales will be back in growth modenext year In total 75700 Centrisreg

sales are orecast or 2014

Prices Relatively lower demand orresale homes combined with rising

supply has taken pressure o price

growth in recent quarters and shouldcontinue to do so throughout this

coming year With a return to morebalanced conditions price growthin the resale market will continueto moderate in 2013 The average

price recorded by Centrisreg will reach$269100 in 2013 and $272000next year

Quebec Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 38500 or 2013 and 39800 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 37500-39500 units or 2013 and 35600-44000 or 2014

Figure 6

12 The Centrisreg system contains all the listings o Quebec real estate brokers

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1333

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

N bnsck

ovv

GDP growth is expected to remainweak over the orecast period with

03 per cent growth orecast or theprovince in 2013 and 10 per cent in

2014 The current weakness stemsrom a reduction in capital investmentThe natural resources sector a keydriver or economic growth in the

province is also expected to postmixed results in 2013

New Brunswick labour marketconditions will remain relatively sotas employment growth is projected

to decline 04 per cent in 2013 andrise 05 per cent in 2014 Slow growthin the labour orce will leave theunemployment rate at 108 per cent

over the next two years

The economic prospects or theprovince are also being held back by

slower population growth and risingout-migration Net migration is notexpected to improve signicantly

in 2013 or 2014 as international

migration is expected to remain weak and interprovincial migration althoughnot as negative as the level reported

in 2012 will not turn positive over theorecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts Rising out-migrationin some centres combined withweakened employment conditions

will have a dampening eect on

housing market activity in 2013 and2014 Single starts are orecast todecline to 1200 units in 2013 and

to 1100 units in 2014

Multiple Starts Stronger building

activity in the rental market duringthe past three years particularlyin Moncton and Fredericton hasresulted in rising vacancy rates

With an expectation that vacancyrates in New Brunswickrsquos three largesturban centers will continue to risein 2013 and 2014 developers are

expected to become more cautiousleading to a reduction in apartmentstarts As a result multiple starts areexpected to decline to 1300 units

in 2013 with a urther decline to1050 units in 2014

Resales Overall market conditionscontinue to benet potential homebuyers in 2013 as many segmentso the market have shited towards

buyerrsquos market conditions Withexpected declines in employmentin 2013 and rising out-migrationdemand is not expected to increase

substantially over the orecast periodConsequently MLSreg sales shoulddecline to 6000 units in 2013 with a

urther decline to 5800 in 2014

Prices The inventory o availablehomes is expected to remain at

historically high levels in NewBrunswickrsquos large urban centresin 2013 and 2014 This will impact

the level o price growth The MLSreg average price is expected to decreaseto $161000 in 2013 and again to$160500 in 2014

New Brunswick Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 2500 or 2013 and 2150 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2175-2825 units or 2013 and

1500-2800 or 2014

Figure 7

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1433

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nva Scta

ovv

The province o Nova Scotia isexpected to record economic

growth o 10 per cent in 2013 and15 per cent in 2014 Economic

conditions are expected to slowlyimprove over the orecast periodHaliaxrsquos shipbuilding industry willadd to growth as current and uture

construction repair and maintenanceprojects are expected to createeconomic activity over the short

and medium term The energy sectorwill add to provincial production inthe second hal o 2013The benets

o a lower Canadian dollar will also beelt by companies exporting materialsand goods

Nova Scotia labour market conditionswill remain stable in 2013 asemployment growth is projected torise 04 per cent this year compared

to growth o 06 per cent in 2012In 2014 the rise in growth will be to09 per cent as a result o a moderaterise in private sector investment

activity A similar level in the growtho the labour orce in 2013 and 2014will leave the unemployment rate

close to 90 per cent in both years

For 2013 interprovincial migration willmoderate to close to 4000 people

as was reported in 2012 The level o interprovincial migration will remainnegative in 2014 at close to -2000

people The level o internationalmigration will drop close to -2000 in

2013 and -1350 in 2014 As a resultnet-migration will remain negative at

-2000 in 2013 and -750 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 modestemployment growth and shitingconsumer demand will result in a

decline in single-detached startsto 1840 units For 2014 expecteconomic growth to stimulatedemand in the new homes market

resulting in a rise to 1975 single-detached starts in the province

Multiple Starts The provincialmulti-amily segment o themarket will continue to be drivenby apartment-style rental unit

construction most o which will takeplace in Haliax Demand or rentalhousing will be largely driven by anaging population base that is looking

to downsize or move to one-foorliving accommodations Expect semi-detached and row units to also remain

a popular alternative over the orecastperiod or rst-time home buyersMultiple starts will total 2185 unitsin 2013 beore declining to 2100

starts in 2014

Resales Following a slight increase

in 2012 MLSreg sales will decline in2013 to 9300 units In 2014 expecta smaller decline in provincialnet migration and an improving

employment outlook to result ina small reversal in MLSreg sales to9600 units

Prices The average sale price o anexisting home in Nova Scotia climbed37 per cent in 2012 to $220413In 2013 reduced demand will shit

market conditions towards a buyerrsquosmarket resulting in slowing pricegrowth o 07 per cent to $222000

In 2014 prices will increase to$226000 as improving economicactors will result in better marketconditions

Nova Scotia Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 4025 or 2013 and 4075 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 3525-4525 units or 2013 and 3075-5075 or 2014

Figure 8

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Pnc edad

island

ovv

Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic

growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent

declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the

prospects or manuacturing andexports

Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support

the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth

o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment

rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon

The economic prospects or the

province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012

Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about

500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts The slowdown in

population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units

in 2014

Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a

continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise

in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply

o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014

Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will

impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014

Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will

also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be

$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014

Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is

refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014

Figure 9

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nfndland and

Laad

ovv

Newoundland and Labrador will see

a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise

to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil

production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related

private sector investment activity

One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness

in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador

Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth

is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the

rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the

unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years

Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over

the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population

growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in

2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but

the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period

in Dtal

Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and

2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single

starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity

is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single

starts in 2014

Multiple Starts Multiple unit

construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast

period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014

Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a

decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to

improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net

migration increases

Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels

elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average

MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000

in 2014

Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)

00

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and

2200-3600 or 2014

Figure 10

13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Canada Starts (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 11

The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

3 6 0 6

3 4 8 8

3 8 8 5

3 0 5 0

2 9 0 0

2 7 2 6

3 0 6 9

3 4 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 8 0 0

3 3 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 8 0

- 3 3

1 1 4

- 2 1 5

- 4 9

- 2 4 7

1 2 6

1 0 8

- 1 1 8

- 6 7

1 7 9

- 9 1

- 1 6 7

P E I

7 5 6

9 4 0

9 4 1

8 0 0

7 0 0

9 2 0

7 5 7

7 7 5

7 5 5

6 5 0

7 4 0

7 4 5

6 6 5

- 1 3 8

2 4 3

0 1

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 5

- 4 0

- 1 7 7

2 4

- 2 6

- 1 3 9

1 3 8

0 7

- 1 0 7

N S

4 3 0 9

4 6 4 4

4 5 2 2

4 0 2 5

4 0 7 5

4 6 1 1

3 4 5 6

4 1 5 0

3 8 5 0

3 6 0 0

4 5 0 0

4 3 0 0

3 9 0 0

2 5 3

7 8

- 2 6

- 1 1 0

1 2

- 1 1 0

- 2 5 0

2 0 1

- 7 2

- 6 5

2 5 0

- 4 4

- 9 3

N B

4 1 0 1

3 4 5 2

3 2 9 9

2 5 0 0

2 1 5 0

3 4 2 9

2 9 0 4

1 9 0 0

1 7 7 5

1 7 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 6 5

-

1 5 8

- 4 4

- 2 4 2

- 1 4 0

1 6 3

- 1 5 3

- 3 4 6

- 6 6

- 4 2

4 1 2

4 2

- 2 0 0

Q U E

5 1 3 6 3

4 8 3 8 7

4 7 3 6 7

3 8 5 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 5 9 2 6

3 8 1 0 4

3 9 8 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

3 9 7 5 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

1 8 3

- 5 8

- 2 1

- 1 8 7

3 4

- 2 0 3

6 1

4 5

0 5

- 0 6

0 1

0 0

0 0

O N T

6 0 4 3 3

6 7 8 2 1

7 6 7 4 2

5 8 6 0 0

5 9 4 0 0

5 6 7 1 5

5 7 9 3 1

5 9 4 5 0

6 0 2 5 0

6 0 8 0 0

6 0 2 0 0

5 9 0 0 0

5 7 7 0 0

2 0 0

1 2 2

1 3 2

- 2 3 6

1 4

- 1 8 2

2 1

2 6

1 3

0 9

- 1 0

- 2 0

- 2 2

M A N

5 8 8 8

6 0 8 3

7 2 4 2

7 1 0 0

7 0 0 0

6 8 1 0

7 3 8 2

7 0 0 0

7 1 0 0

7 1 0 0

6 8 0 0

6 9 0 0

7 0 0 0

4 1 1

3 3

1 9 1

- 2 0

- 1 4

6 1

8 4

- 5 2

1 4

0 0

- 4 2

1 5

1 4

S A S K

5 9 0 7

7 0 3 1

9 9 6 8

7 5 0 0

7 7 0 0

6 5 5 8

7 4 9 7

7 9 0 0

8 0 0 0

7 6 0 0

7 9 0 0

7 7 0 0

7 6 0 0

5 2 8

1 9 0

4 1 8

- 2 4 8

2 7

- 4 0 7

1 4 3

5 4

1 3

- 5 0

3 9

- 2 5

- 1 3

A L T A

2 7 0 8 8

2 5 7 0 4

3 3 3 9 6

3 3 8 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 3 7 2 5

3 9 1 6 2

3 1 4 0 0

3 0 9 0 0

3 4 0 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 4 2 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 3 5

- 5 1

2 9 9

1 2

1 8

- 2 2

1 6 1

- 1 9 8

- 1 6

1 0 0

1 2

- 0 6

2 3

B C

2 6 4 7 9

2 6 4 0 0

2 7 4 6 5

2 7 1 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 4 0 3 6

2 5 2 7 3

2 9 5 0 0

2 9 5 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 3 0 0

6 4 7

- 0 3

4 0

- 1 3

5 5

- 1 8

5 1

1 6 7

0 0

- 2 7

- 0 3

0 3

- 1 4

C A N

1 8 9 9 3 0

1 9 3 9 5 0

2 1 4 8 2 7

1 8 2 8 0 0

1 8 6 6 0 0

1 7 5 4 5 6

1 8 5 5 3 5

1 8 5 3 0 0

1 8 5 1 0 0

1 8 6 7 0 0

1 8 8 6 0 0

1

8 6 8 0 0

1 8 4 5 0 0

2 7 4

2 1

1 0 8

- 1 4 9

2 1

- 1 3 8

5 7

- 0 1

- 0 1

0 8

1 0

- 1 0

- 1 3

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1

8 8 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6

0 0 - 2

0 7 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8

0 0 u n

i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 9: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Saskatchan

ovv

Saskatchewanrsquos real GDP is projectedto increase by 21 per cent in

2013 and by 28 per cent in 2014Economic growth in Saskatchewan is

expected to remain strong relativeto other provinces through 2014Saskatchewanrsquos international exportsare increasing this year as rising

exports o agricultural and mineralproducts have been more thanosetting a decline in energy products

Consumer spending will continue togrow supported by population andwage growth

Saskatchewanrsquos labour market willcontinue to grow with its expandingeconomy Employment is projected

to increase by 29 per cent in 2013and then by 17 per cent in 2014Employment gains are not currentlybeing met by a commensurate

increase in the labour orce and thisis keeping the unemployment ratelow is some parts o SaskatchewanThe unemployment rate at the

provincial level is orecast at 42 percent in 2013 and 43 per cent in 2014Saskatchewanrsquos unemployment rate

will remain the lowest o all provincesover the orecast period

Net migration to Saskatchewan

is projected to reach 11900 in2013 and 12100 in 2014 The vastmajority o Saskatchewanrsquos gains will

come rom international migrationInterprovincial migration is projected

to remain positive over the orecastperiod as economic opportunities

draw migrants rom other parts o Canada New household ormationand housing demand will continueto be supported by migration to

Saskatchewan but not to the sameextent as in 2012

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached startswill moderate to 4100 units in 2013

as high inventory levels continueto slow the pace o initiating newprojects While demand or newsingle-detached homes will remain

elevated the slower pace o absorptions at completion will bea constraining actor on starts this

year A slight increase to 4200 unitsis expected in 2014

Multiple Starts Following an increase

to 4797 units in 2012 multi-amilystarts are projected to decline to3400 units in 2013 due to risinginventory With absorptions lagging

completions this year inventory isrising and will motivate home buildersto scale back production o multi-

amily units Multi-amily starts are

expected to edge higher in 2014to 3500 units

Resales MLSreg sales in Saskatchewanare orecast to moderate to13200 units in 2013 due to lower

net migration and rise modestlyto 13400 units in 2014 While theelevated number o 13950 resales in

2012 will not be surpassed over theorecast period MLSreg sales will remainelevated by historical standards

Prices The average MLSreg price inSaskatchewan is projected to rise to$288000 in 2013 rom $274268 in

2012 Balanced market conditionsover the orecast period are expectedto increase the average MLSreg price to$294100 in 2014

Saskatchewan Starts (000s)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7500 or 2013 and 7700 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 7300-7700 units or 2013 and

6900-8500 or 2014

Figure 3

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1033

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Manta

ovv

Manitobarsquos real GDP growth isprojected at 19 per cent in 2013

and 20 per cent in 2014 Capitalinvestment expenditures in the utility

sector mining oil and gas as wellas the manuacturing industry areexpected to be drivers o economicgrowth Expected stronger economic

growth in the United States in 2014may increase international tradebeyond the single digit growth

experienced thus ar in 2013

Economic activity in Manitoba is

projected to generate employmentgrowth o 10 per cent in 2013 and13 per cent in 2014 Manitobarsquoslabour orce is expected to increase

at a similar rate helping to keep theunemployment rate lower than thenational average and relatively stableat 53 per cent in 2013 and 2014

Net migration in Manitoba a keydriver o population growth and

housing demand is orecast to reach

8600 people in 2013 and edgelower to 8500 people in 2014 TheProvincial Nominee Program will

continue to encourage migrants torelocate to Manitoba and internationalmigration is expected to be a primarydriver o population growth and

new household ormation Howeverinternational gains will be reducedby interprovincial outfows primarily

to Alberta

in Dtal

Single Starts Manitobarsquos single-

detached housing starts are expectedto remain elevated at 4000 units in2013 and 4100 units in 2014 Wage

growth near infation and employmentgains will support demand or newhomes moving orward On the other

hand moderating net migration andrising supply levels will keep single-detached starts near the 4000 unitlevel over the orecast period

Multiple Starts Multi-amily startsare projected to slightly surpass

2012rsquos production and reach3100 units in 2013 Low vacancyrates across the province havesupported construction in the

rental sector Meanwhile demandor condominiums is being uelled byrst-time buyers and empty-nestersWith a growing number o units

under construction builders will easeproduction to 2900 units in 2014

Resales MLSreg sales are orecast tomoderate rom last yearrsquos record to13600 in 2013 beore reboundingslightly to 13700 in 2014 The move-

up buying segment o the market will

be supported by home equity gainsrom rising real estate values Demand

will also be bolstered by populationgrowth and employment gainsHowever these will be counteredby increased mortgage carrying

costs keeping sales below the2012 peak o 14008

Prices The average residential MLSreg price in Manitoba is orecast to riseto $256600 in 2013 ollowed by anincrease to $263000 in 2014 Slower

sales combined with a slight increasein new listings will result in a higherinventory o active listings particularly

in Winnipeg This will help to easesellersrsquo market conditions in Winnipegand reduce upward pressure on pricegrowth over the orecast period

Manitoba Starts (000s)

0

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7100 or 2013 and 7000 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 6900-7300 units or 2013 and

6300-7700 or 2014

Figure 4

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1133

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

onta

ovv

Ontariorsquos economy will grow at amodest pace o 15 per cent this year

beore gaining momentum in 2014with growth o 26 per cent Next

year would be the rst time in over adecade that Ontario outpaces overallgrowth in Canada Consumer andpublic sector spending will contribute

less to economic growth Insteadimproving business investmentnon-residential construction and

trade will drive Ontariorsquos economysupported in part by a relativelycheaper Canadian dollar According

to consensus among Canadianorecasters the US economy isexpected to gain strength againstother global economies by 2014

This is expected to support Ontariorsquostrade sector

Ontario employment growth will

strengthen to 17 per cent by nextyear and will ollow in the ootstepso an improving economy Ontariorsquosunemployment rate will decline

relative to most other provinceswhich will support a stronger paceo income growth in 2014

As Ontario gradually closes theeconomic growth gap with otherregions migratory outfows to

other parts o Canada will lessenSimilarly international migration willprovide some underlying support to

population growth as Ontariorsquos shareo international migration moves

higher and closer to historic normsNet migration to Ontario will

rise rom 83100 people to over93600 people in 2014

Against the improving backdrop

Ontario residential constructionwill slow down this year beorestabilizing in 2014 Starts will decline

to 58600 units in 2013 beorereaching 59400 units next yearResale activity will hold up betterover the orecast horizon but

will not reach the peak o 2007Modest job growth relative to therecent past better supplied resale

markets and a high level o apartmentunits under construction will restraingrowth in housing starts over theorecast horizon

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached starts

are orecast at 23000 and 23900units in 2013 and 2014 respectivelyLow inventories o unsold homesand tighter resale market conditions

will allow detached construction topost some growth over the orecasthorizon relative to higher density

housing construction

Multiple Starts Multi-amily homeconstruction will slow to 35600 units

this year beore stabilizing at 35500units in 2014 Apartment starts willalso moderate in 2013 as apartment

demand slows beore stabilizingin 2014 More choice in the resalemarket will dampen demand or

new condominiums Furthermore ahigh level o apartment units underconstruction is generating capacityconstraints or the industry - making

it dicult or new projects tocommence construction

Resales Existing home sales willreach 195400 units this year justshy o 2012 levels Ater trendinglower since the spring o 2012

existing home sales have stabilizedand are expected to graduallyimprove over the orecast horizon

reaching 202800 units in 2014More condominium completionscoupled with the resale marketrsquosprice advantage will provide more

choice to potential home buyers

Prices A balanced Ontario resale

market suggests prices will grow inline with the general rate o infation

over the orecast horizon In additionshiting preerences rom expensive

to inexpensive housing will also exertdownward pressure on average pricesover the next ew years Ontarioaverage home prices will grow to

$397400 and $404400 in 2013and 2014 respectively

Ontario Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 58600 or 2013 and 59400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 57000-60200 units or 2013 and

53200-65600 or 2014

Figure 5

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1233

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Qc

ovv

In Quebec relatively slow economicand employment growth will reduce

demand o existing and new homesthis year Easing resale markets and

relatively high inventories o newdwellings will signicantly lowerhousing starts in 2013 Nonethelessdemographic trends will support

housing demand into 2014 at whichtime a strengthening economy andtightening resale markets will energize

both the resale and new housingmarkets

On the economic ront Quebecrsquoslabour markets still eel the impacts o a slow recovery south o the borderand o more avourable employment

prospects in western Canada Whilebusiness investment has increasedsolidly rms have ocused on xedcapital rather than on hiring For this

reason employment will progress at arelatively slow pace in 2013 and 2014(14 per cent each year) Meanwhilepublic and consumer spending have

increased moderately while exportlevels remained stable GDP growth o between 15 and 22 per cent growth

is expected during the orecasthorizon

Demographic trends will continue

to support the provincersquos housingmarkets in the next two yearsSustained immigration to the province

will still have a positive impact ondemand in the rental market as

fows are expected to remain stableover the orecast horizon Total

net migration is expected to reachrespectively 44700 and 45300persons in 2013 and 2014 Whilemoderating demand rom younger

households cools rst-time buyingpopulation aging will prompt some

older households to re-enter themarket in response to their evolvinghousing needs

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 moderate jobgrowth the continued easing o the

resale market which is expectedto attract a greater part o housingdemand and the trend toward multi-amily dwelling will contribute to

reduce single starts and translateinto a total o 13700 single-detachedhomes started In 2014 a tighter

resale market will bring some supportto the new housing market segmentwhich is expected to result in14100 single starts

Multiple Starts The trend towardthe multi-amily market segment is

explained by its relative aordability

the changing needs o an agingpopulation and by densicationtrends Fuelled by the popularity o

condominium apartments supply inthis market segment has increasedsignicantly As a result o threeyears o sustained construction rom

2010 to 2012 market conditions inthis market have eased signicantly

Starts o multi-amily dwellings willthus decrease considerably this yearMultiple starts will descend below the25000 level in 2013 and rise to the

25700 mark in 2014

Resales While holding steady in 2012

sales recorded by Centrisreg12 havebeen recently declining as a resulto the overall economic contextdiscussed previously Despite a certain

rebound expected in the secondhal o this year resales will come inat a lower level this year For 2013

73000 such transactions are orecastAs buying conditions improve totalresales will be back in growth modenext year In total 75700 Centrisreg

sales are orecast or 2014

Prices Relatively lower demand orresale homes combined with rising

supply has taken pressure o price

growth in recent quarters and shouldcontinue to do so throughout this

coming year With a return to morebalanced conditions price growthin the resale market will continueto moderate in 2013 The average

price recorded by Centrisreg will reach$269100 in 2013 and $272000next year

Quebec Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 38500 or 2013 and 39800 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 37500-39500 units or 2013 and 35600-44000 or 2014

Figure 6

12 The Centrisreg system contains all the listings o Quebec real estate brokers

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1333

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

N bnsck

ovv

GDP growth is expected to remainweak over the orecast period with

03 per cent growth orecast or theprovince in 2013 and 10 per cent in

2014 The current weakness stemsrom a reduction in capital investmentThe natural resources sector a keydriver or economic growth in the

province is also expected to postmixed results in 2013

New Brunswick labour marketconditions will remain relatively sotas employment growth is projected

to decline 04 per cent in 2013 andrise 05 per cent in 2014 Slow growthin the labour orce will leave theunemployment rate at 108 per cent

over the next two years

The economic prospects or theprovince are also being held back by

slower population growth and risingout-migration Net migration is notexpected to improve signicantly

in 2013 or 2014 as international

migration is expected to remain weak and interprovincial migration althoughnot as negative as the level reported

in 2012 will not turn positive over theorecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts Rising out-migrationin some centres combined withweakened employment conditions

will have a dampening eect on

housing market activity in 2013 and2014 Single starts are orecast todecline to 1200 units in 2013 and

to 1100 units in 2014

Multiple Starts Stronger building

activity in the rental market duringthe past three years particularlyin Moncton and Fredericton hasresulted in rising vacancy rates

With an expectation that vacancyrates in New Brunswickrsquos three largesturban centers will continue to risein 2013 and 2014 developers are

expected to become more cautiousleading to a reduction in apartmentstarts As a result multiple starts areexpected to decline to 1300 units

in 2013 with a urther decline to1050 units in 2014

Resales Overall market conditionscontinue to benet potential homebuyers in 2013 as many segmentso the market have shited towards

buyerrsquos market conditions Withexpected declines in employmentin 2013 and rising out-migrationdemand is not expected to increase

substantially over the orecast periodConsequently MLSreg sales shoulddecline to 6000 units in 2013 with a

urther decline to 5800 in 2014

Prices The inventory o availablehomes is expected to remain at

historically high levels in NewBrunswickrsquos large urban centresin 2013 and 2014 This will impact

the level o price growth The MLSreg average price is expected to decreaseto $161000 in 2013 and again to$160500 in 2014

New Brunswick Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 2500 or 2013 and 2150 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2175-2825 units or 2013 and

1500-2800 or 2014

Figure 7

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1433

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nva Scta

ovv

The province o Nova Scotia isexpected to record economic

growth o 10 per cent in 2013 and15 per cent in 2014 Economic

conditions are expected to slowlyimprove over the orecast periodHaliaxrsquos shipbuilding industry willadd to growth as current and uture

construction repair and maintenanceprojects are expected to createeconomic activity over the short

and medium term The energy sectorwill add to provincial production inthe second hal o 2013The benets

o a lower Canadian dollar will also beelt by companies exporting materialsand goods

Nova Scotia labour market conditionswill remain stable in 2013 asemployment growth is projected torise 04 per cent this year compared

to growth o 06 per cent in 2012In 2014 the rise in growth will be to09 per cent as a result o a moderaterise in private sector investment

activity A similar level in the growtho the labour orce in 2013 and 2014will leave the unemployment rate

close to 90 per cent in both years

For 2013 interprovincial migration willmoderate to close to 4000 people

as was reported in 2012 The level o interprovincial migration will remainnegative in 2014 at close to -2000

people The level o internationalmigration will drop close to -2000 in

2013 and -1350 in 2014 As a resultnet-migration will remain negative at

-2000 in 2013 and -750 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 modestemployment growth and shitingconsumer demand will result in a

decline in single-detached startsto 1840 units For 2014 expecteconomic growth to stimulatedemand in the new homes market

resulting in a rise to 1975 single-detached starts in the province

Multiple Starts The provincialmulti-amily segment o themarket will continue to be drivenby apartment-style rental unit

construction most o which will takeplace in Haliax Demand or rentalhousing will be largely driven by anaging population base that is looking

to downsize or move to one-foorliving accommodations Expect semi-detached and row units to also remain

a popular alternative over the orecastperiod or rst-time home buyersMultiple starts will total 2185 unitsin 2013 beore declining to 2100

starts in 2014

Resales Following a slight increase

in 2012 MLSreg sales will decline in2013 to 9300 units In 2014 expecta smaller decline in provincialnet migration and an improving

employment outlook to result ina small reversal in MLSreg sales to9600 units

Prices The average sale price o anexisting home in Nova Scotia climbed37 per cent in 2012 to $220413In 2013 reduced demand will shit

market conditions towards a buyerrsquosmarket resulting in slowing pricegrowth o 07 per cent to $222000

In 2014 prices will increase to$226000 as improving economicactors will result in better marketconditions

Nova Scotia Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 4025 or 2013 and 4075 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 3525-4525 units or 2013 and 3075-5075 or 2014

Figure 8

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Pnc edad

island

ovv

Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic

growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent

declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the

prospects or manuacturing andexports

Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support

the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth

o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment

rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon

The economic prospects or the

province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012

Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about

500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts The slowdown in

population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units

in 2014

Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a

continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise

in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply

o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014

Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will

impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014

Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will

also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be

$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014

Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is

refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014

Figure 9

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nfndland and

Laad

ovv

Newoundland and Labrador will see

a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise

to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil

production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related

private sector investment activity

One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness

in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador

Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth

is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the

rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the

unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years

Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over

the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population

growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in

2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but

the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period

in Dtal

Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and

2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single

starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity

is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single

starts in 2014

Multiple Starts Multiple unit

construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast

period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014

Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a

decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to

improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net

migration increases

Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels

elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average

MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000

in 2014

Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)

00

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and

2200-3600 or 2014

Figure 10

13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Canada Starts (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 11

The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

3 6 0 6

3 4 8 8

3 8 8 5

3 0 5 0

2 9 0 0

2 7 2 6

3 0 6 9

3 4 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 8 0 0

3 3 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 8 0

- 3 3

1 1 4

- 2 1 5

- 4 9

- 2 4 7

1 2 6

1 0 8

- 1 1 8

- 6 7

1 7 9

- 9 1

- 1 6 7

P E I

7 5 6

9 4 0

9 4 1

8 0 0

7 0 0

9 2 0

7 5 7

7 7 5

7 5 5

6 5 0

7 4 0

7 4 5

6 6 5

- 1 3 8

2 4 3

0 1

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 5

- 4 0

- 1 7 7

2 4

- 2 6

- 1 3 9

1 3 8

0 7

- 1 0 7

N S

4 3 0 9

4 6 4 4

4 5 2 2

4 0 2 5

4 0 7 5

4 6 1 1

3 4 5 6

4 1 5 0

3 8 5 0

3 6 0 0

4 5 0 0

4 3 0 0

3 9 0 0

2 5 3

7 8

- 2 6

- 1 1 0

1 2

- 1 1 0

- 2 5 0

2 0 1

- 7 2

- 6 5

2 5 0

- 4 4

- 9 3

N B

4 1 0 1

3 4 5 2

3 2 9 9

2 5 0 0

2 1 5 0

3 4 2 9

2 9 0 4

1 9 0 0

1 7 7 5

1 7 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 6 5

-

1 5 8

- 4 4

- 2 4 2

- 1 4 0

1 6 3

- 1 5 3

- 3 4 6

- 6 6

- 4 2

4 1 2

4 2

- 2 0 0

Q U E

5 1 3 6 3

4 8 3 8 7

4 7 3 6 7

3 8 5 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 5 9 2 6

3 8 1 0 4

3 9 8 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

3 9 7 5 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

1 8 3

- 5 8

- 2 1

- 1 8 7

3 4

- 2 0 3

6 1

4 5

0 5

- 0 6

0 1

0 0

0 0

O N T

6 0 4 3 3

6 7 8 2 1

7 6 7 4 2

5 8 6 0 0

5 9 4 0 0

5 6 7 1 5

5 7 9 3 1

5 9 4 5 0

6 0 2 5 0

6 0 8 0 0

6 0 2 0 0

5 9 0 0 0

5 7 7 0 0

2 0 0

1 2 2

1 3 2

- 2 3 6

1 4

- 1 8 2

2 1

2 6

1 3

0 9

- 1 0

- 2 0

- 2 2

M A N

5 8 8 8

6 0 8 3

7 2 4 2

7 1 0 0

7 0 0 0

6 8 1 0

7 3 8 2

7 0 0 0

7 1 0 0

7 1 0 0

6 8 0 0

6 9 0 0

7 0 0 0

4 1 1

3 3

1 9 1

- 2 0

- 1 4

6 1

8 4

- 5 2

1 4

0 0

- 4 2

1 5

1 4

S A S K

5 9 0 7

7 0 3 1

9 9 6 8

7 5 0 0

7 7 0 0

6 5 5 8

7 4 9 7

7 9 0 0

8 0 0 0

7 6 0 0

7 9 0 0

7 7 0 0

7 6 0 0

5 2 8

1 9 0

4 1 8

- 2 4 8

2 7

- 4 0 7

1 4 3

5 4

1 3

- 5 0

3 9

- 2 5

- 1 3

A L T A

2 7 0 8 8

2 5 7 0 4

3 3 3 9 6

3 3 8 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 3 7 2 5

3 9 1 6 2

3 1 4 0 0

3 0 9 0 0

3 4 0 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 4 2 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 3 5

- 5 1

2 9 9

1 2

1 8

- 2 2

1 6 1

- 1 9 8

- 1 6

1 0 0

1 2

- 0 6

2 3

B C

2 6 4 7 9

2 6 4 0 0

2 7 4 6 5

2 7 1 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 4 0 3 6

2 5 2 7 3

2 9 5 0 0

2 9 5 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 3 0 0

6 4 7

- 0 3

4 0

- 1 3

5 5

- 1 8

5 1

1 6 7

0 0

- 2 7

- 0 3

0 3

- 1 4

C A N

1 8 9 9 3 0

1 9 3 9 5 0

2 1 4 8 2 7

1 8 2 8 0 0

1 8 6 6 0 0

1 7 5 4 5 6

1 8 5 5 3 5

1 8 5 3 0 0

1 8 5 1 0 0

1 8 6 7 0 0

1 8 8 6 0 0

1

8 6 8 0 0

1 8 4 5 0 0

2 7 4

2 1

1 0 8

- 1 4 9

2 1

- 1 3 8

5 7

- 0 1

- 0 1

0 8

1 0

- 1 0

- 1 3

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1

8 8 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6

0 0 - 2

0 7 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8

0 0 u n

i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 10: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1033

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Manta

ovv

Manitobarsquos real GDP growth isprojected at 19 per cent in 2013

and 20 per cent in 2014 Capitalinvestment expenditures in the utility

sector mining oil and gas as wellas the manuacturing industry areexpected to be drivers o economicgrowth Expected stronger economic

growth in the United States in 2014may increase international tradebeyond the single digit growth

experienced thus ar in 2013

Economic activity in Manitoba is

projected to generate employmentgrowth o 10 per cent in 2013 and13 per cent in 2014 Manitobarsquoslabour orce is expected to increase

at a similar rate helping to keep theunemployment rate lower than thenational average and relatively stableat 53 per cent in 2013 and 2014

Net migration in Manitoba a keydriver o population growth and

housing demand is orecast to reach

8600 people in 2013 and edgelower to 8500 people in 2014 TheProvincial Nominee Program will

continue to encourage migrants torelocate to Manitoba and internationalmigration is expected to be a primarydriver o population growth and

new household ormation Howeverinternational gains will be reducedby interprovincial outfows primarily

to Alberta

in Dtal

Single Starts Manitobarsquos single-

detached housing starts are expectedto remain elevated at 4000 units in2013 and 4100 units in 2014 Wage

growth near infation and employmentgains will support demand or newhomes moving orward On the other

hand moderating net migration andrising supply levels will keep single-detached starts near the 4000 unitlevel over the orecast period

Multiple Starts Multi-amily startsare projected to slightly surpass

2012rsquos production and reach3100 units in 2013 Low vacancyrates across the province havesupported construction in the

rental sector Meanwhile demandor condominiums is being uelled byrst-time buyers and empty-nestersWith a growing number o units

under construction builders will easeproduction to 2900 units in 2014

Resales MLSreg sales are orecast tomoderate rom last yearrsquos record to13600 in 2013 beore reboundingslightly to 13700 in 2014 The move-

up buying segment o the market will

be supported by home equity gainsrom rising real estate values Demand

will also be bolstered by populationgrowth and employment gainsHowever these will be counteredby increased mortgage carrying

costs keeping sales below the2012 peak o 14008

Prices The average residential MLSreg price in Manitoba is orecast to riseto $256600 in 2013 ollowed by anincrease to $263000 in 2014 Slower

sales combined with a slight increasein new listings will result in a higherinventory o active listings particularly

in Winnipeg This will help to easesellersrsquo market conditions in Winnipegand reduce upward pressure on pricegrowth over the orecast period

Manitoba Starts (000s)

0

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 7100 or 2013 and 7000 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 6900-7300 units or 2013 and

6300-7700 or 2014

Figure 4

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1133

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

onta

ovv

Ontariorsquos economy will grow at amodest pace o 15 per cent this year

beore gaining momentum in 2014with growth o 26 per cent Next

year would be the rst time in over adecade that Ontario outpaces overallgrowth in Canada Consumer andpublic sector spending will contribute

less to economic growth Insteadimproving business investmentnon-residential construction and

trade will drive Ontariorsquos economysupported in part by a relativelycheaper Canadian dollar According

to consensus among Canadianorecasters the US economy isexpected to gain strength againstother global economies by 2014

This is expected to support Ontariorsquostrade sector

Ontario employment growth will

strengthen to 17 per cent by nextyear and will ollow in the ootstepso an improving economy Ontariorsquosunemployment rate will decline

relative to most other provinceswhich will support a stronger paceo income growth in 2014

As Ontario gradually closes theeconomic growth gap with otherregions migratory outfows to

other parts o Canada will lessenSimilarly international migration willprovide some underlying support to

population growth as Ontariorsquos shareo international migration moves

higher and closer to historic normsNet migration to Ontario will

rise rom 83100 people to over93600 people in 2014

Against the improving backdrop

Ontario residential constructionwill slow down this year beorestabilizing in 2014 Starts will decline

to 58600 units in 2013 beorereaching 59400 units next yearResale activity will hold up betterover the orecast horizon but

will not reach the peak o 2007Modest job growth relative to therecent past better supplied resale

markets and a high level o apartmentunits under construction will restraingrowth in housing starts over theorecast horizon

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached starts

are orecast at 23000 and 23900units in 2013 and 2014 respectivelyLow inventories o unsold homesand tighter resale market conditions

will allow detached construction topost some growth over the orecasthorizon relative to higher density

housing construction

Multiple Starts Multi-amily homeconstruction will slow to 35600 units

this year beore stabilizing at 35500units in 2014 Apartment starts willalso moderate in 2013 as apartment

demand slows beore stabilizingin 2014 More choice in the resalemarket will dampen demand or

new condominiums Furthermore ahigh level o apartment units underconstruction is generating capacityconstraints or the industry - making

it dicult or new projects tocommence construction

Resales Existing home sales willreach 195400 units this year justshy o 2012 levels Ater trendinglower since the spring o 2012

existing home sales have stabilizedand are expected to graduallyimprove over the orecast horizon

reaching 202800 units in 2014More condominium completionscoupled with the resale marketrsquosprice advantage will provide more

choice to potential home buyers

Prices A balanced Ontario resale

market suggests prices will grow inline with the general rate o infation

over the orecast horizon In additionshiting preerences rom expensive

to inexpensive housing will also exertdownward pressure on average pricesover the next ew years Ontarioaverage home prices will grow to

$397400 and $404400 in 2013and 2014 respectively

Ontario Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 58600 or 2013 and 59400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 57000-60200 units or 2013 and

53200-65600 or 2014

Figure 5

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1233

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Qc

ovv

In Quebec relatively slow economicand employment growth will reduce

demand o existing and new homesthis year Easing resale markets and

relatively high inventories o newdwellings will signicantly lowerhousing starts in 2013 Nonethelessdemographic trends will support

housing demand into 2014 at whichtime a strengthening economy andtightening resale markets will energize

both the resale and new housingmarkets

On the economic ront Quebecrsquoslabour markets still eel the impacts o a slow recovery south o the borderand o more avourable employment

prospects in western Canada Whilebusiness investment has increasedsolidly rms have ocused on xedcapital rather than on hiring For this

reason employment will progress at arelatively slow pace in 2013 and 2014(14 per cent each year) Meanwhilepublic and consumer spending have

increased moderately while exportlevels remained stable GDP growth o between 15 and 22 per cent growth

is expected during the orecasthorizon

Demographic trends will continue

to support the provincersquos housingmarkets in the next two yearsSustained immigration to the province

will still have a positive impact ondemand in the rental market as

fows are expected to remain stableover the orecast horizon Total

net migration is expected to reachrespectively 44700 and 45300persons in 2013 and 2014 Whilemoderating demand rom younger

households cools rst-time buyingpopulation aging will prompt some

older households to re-enter themarket in response to their evolvinghousing needs

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 moderate jobgrowth the continued easing o the

resale market which is expectedto attract a greater part o housingdemand and the trend toward multi-amily dwelling will contribute to

reduce single starts and translateinto a total o 13700 single-detachedhomes started In 2014 a tighter

resale market will bring some supportto the new housing market segmentwhich is expected to result in14100 single starts

Multiple Starts The trend towardthe multi-amily market segment is

explained by its relative aordability

the changing needs o an agingpopulation and by densicationtrends Fuelled by the popularity o

condominium apartments supply inthis market segment has increasedsignicantly As a result o threeyears o sustained construction rom

2010 to 2012 market conditions inthis market have eased signicantly

Starts o multi-amily dwellings willthus decrease considerably this yearMultiple starts will descend below the25000 level in 2013 and rise to the

25700 mark in 2014

Resales While holding steady in 2012

sales recorded by Centrisreg12 havebeen recently declining as a resulto the overall economic contextdiscussed previously Despite a certain

rebound expected in the secondhal o this year resales will come inat a lower level this year For 2013

73000 such transactions are orecastAs buying conditions improve totalresales will be back in growth modenext year In total 75700 Centrisreg

sales are orecast or 2014

Prices Relatively lower demand orresale homes combined with rising

supply has taken pressure o price

growth in recent quarters and shouldcontinue to do so throughout this

coming year With a return to morebalanced conditions price growthin the resale market will continueto moderate in 2013 The average

price recorded by Centrisreg will reach$269100 in 2013 and $272000next year

Quebec Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 38500 or 2013 and 39800 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 37500-39500 units or 2013 and 35600-44000 or 2014

Figure 6

12 The Centrisreg system contains all the listings o Quebec real estate brokers

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1333

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

N bnsck

ovv

GDP growth is expected to remainweak over the orecast period with

03 per cent growth orecast or theprovince in 2013 and 10 per cent in

2014 The current weakness stemsrom a reduction in capital investmentThe natural resources sector a keydriver or economic growth in the

province is also expected to postmixed results in 2013

New Brunswick labour marketconditions will remain relatively sotas employment growth is projected

to decline 04 per cent in 2013 andrise 05 per cent in 2014 Slow growthin the labour orce will leave theunemployment rate at 108 per cent

over the next two years

The economic prospects or theprovince are also being held back by

slower population growth and risingout-migration Net migration is notexpected to improve signicantly

in 2013 or 2014 as international

migration is expected to remain weak and interprovincial migration althoughnot as negative as the level reported

in 2012 will not turn positive over theorecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts Rising out-migrationin some centres combined withweakened employment conditions

will have a dampening eect on

housing market activity in 2013 and2014 Single starts are orecast todecline to 1200 units in 2013 and

to 1100 units in 2014

Multiple Starts Stronger building

activity in the rental market duringthe past three years particularlyin Moncton and Fredericton hasresulted in rising vacancy rates

With an expectation that vacancyrates in New Brunswickrsquos three largesturban centers will continue to risein 2013 and 2014 developers are

expected to become more cautiousleading to a reduction in apartmentstarts As a result multiple starts areexpected to decline to 1300 units

in 2013 with a urther decline to1050 units in 2014

Resales Overall market conditionscontinue to benet potential homebuyers in 2013 as many segmentso the market have shited towards

buyerrsquos market conditions Withexpected declines in employmentin 2013 and rising out-migrationdemand is not expected to increase

substantially over the orecast periodConsequently MLSreg sales shoulddecline to 6000 units in 2013 with a

urther decline to 5800 in 2014

Prices The inventory o availablehomes is expected to remain at

historically high levels in NewBrunswickrsquos large urban centresin 2013 and 2014 This will impact

the level o price growth The MLSreg average price is expected to decreaseto $161000 in 2013 and again to$160500 in 2014

New Brunswick Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 2500 or 2013 and 2150 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2175-2825 units or 2013 and

1500-2800 or 2014

Figure 7

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1433

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nva Scta

ovv

The province o Nova Scotia isexpected to record economic

growth o 10 per cent in 2013 and15 per cent in 2014 Economic

conditions are expected to slowlyimprove over the orecast periodHaliaxrsquos shipbuilding industry willadd to growth as current and uture

construction repair and maintenanceprojects are expected to createeconomic activity over the short

and medium term The energy sectorwill add to provincial production inthe second hal o 2013The benets

o a lower Canadian dollar will also beelt by companies exporting materialsand goods

Nova Scotia labour market conditionswill remain stable in 2013 asemployment growth is projected torise 04 per cent this year compared

to growth o 06 per cent in 2012In 2014 the rise in growth will be to09 per cent as a result o a moderaterise in private sector investment

activity A similar level in the growtho the labour orce in 2013 and 2014will leave the unemployment rate

close to 90 per cent in both years

For 2013 interprovincial migration willmoderate to close to 4000 people

as was reported in 2012 The level o interprovincial migration will remainnegative in 2014 at close to -2000

people The level o internationalmigration will drop close to -2000 in

2013 and -1350 in 2014 As a resultnet-migration will remain negative at

-2000 in 2013 and -750 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 modestemployment growth and shitingconsumer demand will result in a

decline in single-detached startsto 1840 units For 2014 expecteconomic growth to stimulatedemand in the new homes market

resulting in a rise to 1975 single-detached starts in the province

Multiple Starts The provincialmulti-amily segment o themarket will continue to be drivenby apartment-style rental unit

construction most o which will takeplace in Haliax Demand or rentalhousing will be largely driven by anaging population base that is looking

to downsize or move to one-foorliving accommodations Expect semi-detached and row units to also remain

a popular alternative over the orecastperiod or rst-time home buyersMultiple starts will total 2185 unitsin 2013 beore declining to 2100

starts in 2014

Resales Following a slight increase

in 2012 MLSreg sales will decline in2013 to 9300 units In 2014 expecta smaller decline in provincialnet migration and an improving

employment outlook to result ina small reversal in MLSreg sales to9600 units

Prices The average sale price o anexisting home in Nova Scotia climbed37 per cent in 2012 to $220413In 2013 reduced demand will shit

market conditions towards a buyerrsquosmarket resulting in slowing pricegrowth o 07 per cent to $222000

In 2014 prices will increase to$226000 as improving economicactors will result in better marketconditions

Nova Scotia Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 4025 or 2013 and 4075 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 3525-4525 units or 2013 and 3075-5075 or 2014

Figure 8

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Pnc edad

island

ovv

Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic

growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent

declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the

prospects or manuacturing andexports

Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support

the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth

o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment

rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon

The economic prospects or the

province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012

Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about

500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts The slowdown in

population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units

in 2014

Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a

continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise

in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply

o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014

Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will

impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014

Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will

also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be

$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014

Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is

refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014

Figure 9

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nfndland and

Laad

ovv

Newoundland and Labrador will see

a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise

to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil

production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related

private sector investment activity

One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness

in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador

Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth

is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the

rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the

unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years

Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over

the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population

growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in

2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but

the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period

in Dtal

Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and

2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single

starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity

is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single

starts in 2014

Multiple Starts Multiple unit

construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast

period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014

Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a

decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to

improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net

migration increases

Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels

elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average

MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000

in 2014

Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)

00

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and

2200-3600 or 2014

Figure 10

13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Canada Starts (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 11

The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

3 6 0 6

3 4 8 8

3 8 8 5

3 0 5 0

2 9 0 0

2 7 2 6

3 0 6 9

3 4 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 8 0 0

3 3 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 8 0

- 3 3

1 1 4

- 2 1 5

- 4 9

- 2 4 7

1 2 6

1 0 8

- 1 1 8

- 6 7

1 7 9

- 9 1

- 1 6 7

P E I

7 5 6

9 4 0

9 4 1

8 0 0

7 0 0

9 2 0

7 5 7

7 7 5

7 5 5

6 5 0

7 4 0

7 4 5

6 6 5

- 1 3 8

2 4 3

0 1

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 5

- 4 0

- 1 7 7

2 4

- 2 6

- 1 3 9

1 3 8

0 7

- 1 0 7

N S

4 3 0 9

4 6 4 4

4 5 2 2

4 0 2 5

4 0 7 5

4 6 1 1

3 4 5 6

4 1 5 0

3 8 5 0

3 6 0 0

4 5 0 0

4 3 0 0

3 9 0 0

2 5 3

7 8

- 2 6

- 1 1 0

1 2

- 1 1 0

- 2 5 0

2 0 1

- 7 2

- 6 5

2 5 0

- 4 4

- 9 3

N B

4 1 0 1

3 4 5 2

3 2 9 9

2 5 0 0

2 1 5 0

3 4 2 9

2 9 0 4

1 9 0 0

1 7 7 5

1 7 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 6 5

-

1 5 8

- 4 4

- 2 4 2

- 1 4 0

1 6 3

- 1 5 3

- 3 4 6

- 6 6

- 4 2

4 1 2

4 2

- 2 0 0

Q U E

5 1 3 6 3

4 8 3 8 7

4 7 3 6 7

3 8 5 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 5 9 2 6

3 8 1 0 4

3 9 8 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

3 9 7 5 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

1 8 3

- 5 8

- 2 1

- 1 8 7

3 4

- 2 0 3

6 1

4 5

0 5

- 0 6

0 1

0 0

0 0

O N T

6 0 4 3 3

6 7 8 2 1

7 6 7 4 2

5 8 6 0 0

5 9 4 0 0

5 6 7 1 5

5 7 9 3 1

5 9 4 5 0

6 0 2 5 0

6 0 8 0 0

6 0 2 0 0

5 9 0 0 0

5 7 7 0 0

2 0 0

1 2 2

1 3 2

- 2 3 6

1 4

- 1 8 2

2 1

2 6

1 3

0 9

- 1 0

- 2 0

- 2 2

M A N

5 8 8 8

6 0 8 3

7 2 4 2

7 1 0 0

7 0 0 0

6 8 1 0

7 3 8 2

7 0 0 0

7 1 0 0

7 1 0 0

6 8 0 0

6 9 0 0

7 0 0 0

4 1 1

3 3

1 9 1

- 2 0

- 1 4

6 1

8 4

- 5 2

1 4

0 0

- 4 2

1 5

1 4

S A S K

5 9 0 7

7 0 3 1

9 9 6 8

7 5 0 0

7 7 0 0

6 5 5 8

7 4 9 7

7 9 0 0

8 0 0 0

7 6 0 0

7 9 0 0

7 7 0 0

7 6 0 0

5 2 8

1 9 0

4 1 8

- 2 4 8

2 7

- 4 0 7

1 4 3

5 4

1 3

- 5 0

3 9

- 2 5

- 1 3

A L T A

2 7 0 8 8

2 5 7 0 4

3 3 3 9 6

3 3 8 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 3 7 2 5

3 9 1 6 2

3 1 4 0 0

3 0 9 0 0

3 4 0 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 4 2 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 3 5

- 5 1

2 9 9

1 2

1 8

- 2 2

1 6 1

- 1 9 8

- 1 6

1 0 0

1 2

- 0 6

2 3

B C

2 6 4 7 9

2 6 4 0 0

2 7 4 6 5

2 7 1 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 4 0 3 6

2 5 2 7 3

2 9 5 0 0

2 9 5 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 3 0 0

6 4 7

- 0 3

4 0

- 1 3

5 5

- 1 8

5 1

1 6 7

0 0

- 2 7

- 0 3

0 3

- 1 4

C A N

1 8 9 9 3 0

1 9 3 9 5 0

2 1 4 8 2 7

1 8 2 8 0 0

1 8 6 6 0 0

1 7 5 4 5 6

1 8 5 5 3 5

1 8 5 3 0 0

1 8 5 1 0 0

1 8 6 7 0 0

1 8 8 6 0 0

1

8 6 8 0 0

1 8 4 5 0 0

2 7 4

2 1

1 0 8

- 1 4 9

2 1

- 1 3 8

5 7

- 0 1

- 0 1

0 8

1 0

- 1 0

- 1 3

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1

8 8 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6

0 0 - 2

0 7 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8

0 0 u n

i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 11: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1133

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

onta

ovv

Ontariorsquos economy will grow at amodest pace o 15 per cent this year

beore gaining momentum in 2014with growth o 26 per cent Next

year would be the rst time in over adecade that Ontario outpaces overallgrowth in Canada Consumer andpublic sector spending will contribute

less to economic growth Insteadimproving business investmentnon-residential construction and

trade will drive Ontariorsquos economysupported in part by a relativelycheaper Canadian dollar According

to consensus among Canadianorecasters the US economy isexpected to gain strength againstother global economies by 2014

This is expected to support Ontariorsquostrade sector

Ontario employment growth will

strengthen to 17 per cent by nextyear and will ollow in the ootstepso an improving economy Ontariorsquosunemployment rate will decline

relative to most other provinceswhich will support a stronger paceo income growth in 2014

As Ontario gradually closes theeconomic growth gap with otherregions migratory outfows to

other parts o Canada will lessenSimilarly international migration willprovide some underlying support to

population growth as Ontariorsquos shareo international migration moves

higher and closer to historic normsNet migration to Ontario will

rise rom 83100 people to over93600 people in 2014

Against the improving backdrop

Ontario residential constructionwill slow down this year beorestabilizing in 2014 Starts will decline

to 58600 units in 2013 beorereaching 59400 units next yearResale activity will hold up betterover the orecast horizon but

will not reach the peak o 2007Modest job growth relative to therecent past better supplied resale

markets and a high level o apartmentunits under construction will restraingrowth in housing starts over theorecast horizon

in Dtal

Single Starts Single-detached starts

are orecast at 23000 and 23900units in 2013 and 2014 respectivelyLow inventories o unsold homesand tighter resale market conditions

will allow detached construction topost some growth over the orecasthorizon relative to higher density

housing construction

Multiple Starts Multi-amily homeconstruction will slow to 35600 units

this year beore stabilizing at 35500units in 2014 Apartment starts willalso moderate in 2013 as apartment

demand slows beore stabilizingin 2014 More choice in the resalemarket will dampen demand or

new condominiums Furthermore ahigh level o apartment units underconstruction is generating capacityconstraints or the industry - making

it dicult or new projects tocommence construction

Resales Existing home sales willreach 195400 units this year justshy o 2012 levels Ater trendinglower since the spring o 2012

existing home sales have stabilizedand are expected to graduallyimprove over the orecast horizon

reaching 202800 units in 2014More condominium completionscoupled with the resale marketrsquosprice advantage will provide more

choice to potential home buyers

Prices A balanced Ontario resale

market suggests prices will grow inline with the general rate o infation

over the orecast horizon In additionshiting preerences rom expensive

to inexpensive housing will also exertdownward pressure on average pricesover the next ew years Ontarioaverage home prices will grow to

$397400 and $404400 in 2013and 2014 respectively

Ontario Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 58600 or 2013 and 59400 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 57000-60200 units or 2013 and

53200-65600 or 2014

Figure 5

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1233

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Qc

ovv

In Quebec relatively slow economicand employment growth will reduce

demand o existing and new homesthis year Easing resale markets and

relatively high inventories o newdwellings will signicantly lowerhousing starts in 2013 Nonethelessdemographic trends will support

housing demand into 2014 at whichtime a strengthening economy andtightening resale markets will energize

both the resale and new housingmarkets

On the economic ront Quebecrsquoslabour markets still eel the impacts o a slow recovery south o the borderand o more avourable employment

prospects in western Canada Whilebusiness investment has increasedsolidly rms have ocused on xedcapital rather than on hiring For this

reason employment will progress at arelatively slow pace in 2013 and 2014(14 per cent each year) Meanwhilepublic and consumer spending have

increased moderately while exportlevels remained stable GDP growth o between 15 and 22 per cent growth

is expected during the orecasthorizon

Demographic trends will continue

to support the provincersquos housingmarkets in the next two yearsSustained immigration to the province

will still have a positive impact ondemand in the rental market as

fows are expected to remain stableover the orecast horizon Total

net migration is expected to reachrespectively 44700 and 45300persons in 2013 and 2014 Whilemoderating demand rom younger

households cools rst-time buyingpopulation aging will prompt some

older households to re-enter themarket in response to their evolvinghousing needs

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 moderate jobgrowth the continued easing o the

resale market which is expectedto attract a greater part o housingdemand and the trend toward multi-amily dwelling will contribute to

reduce single starts and translateinto a total o 13700 single-detachedhomes started In 2014 a tighter

resale market will bring some supportto the new housing market segmentwhich is expected to result in14100 single starts

Multiple Starts The trend towardthe multi-amily market segment is

explained by its relative aordability

the changing needs o an agingpopulation and by densicationtrends Fuelled by the popularity o

condominium apartments supply inthis market segment has increasedsignicantly As a result o threeyears o sustained construction rom

2010 to 2012 market conditions inthis market have eased signicantly

Starts o multi-amily dwellings willthus decrease considerably this yearMultiple starts will descend below the25000 level in 2013 and rise to the

25700 mark in 2014

Resales While holding steady in 2012

sales recorded by Centrisreg12 havebeen recently declining as a resulto the overall economic contextdiscussed previously Despite a certain

rebound expected in the secondhal o this year resales will come inat a lower level this year For 2013

73000 such transactions are orecastAs buying conditions improve totalresales will be back in growth modenext year In total 75700 Centrisreg

sales are orecast or 2014

Prices Relatively lower demand orresale homes combined with rising

supply has taken pressure o price

growth in recent quarters and shouldcontinue to do so throughout this

coming year With a return to morebalanced conditions price growthin the resale market will continueto moderate in 2013 The average

price recorded by Centrisreg will reach$269100 in 2013 and $272000next year

Quebec Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 38500 or 2013 and 39800 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 37500-39500 units or 2013 and 35600-44000 or 2014

Figure 6

12 The Centrisreg system contains all the listings o Quebec real estate brokers

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1333

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

N bnsck

ovv

GDP growth is expected to remainweak over the orecast period with

03 per cent growth orecast or theprovince in 2013 and 10 per cent in

2014 The current weakness stemsrom a reduction in capital investmentThe natural resources sector a keydriver or economic growth in the

province is also expected to postmixed results in 2013

New Brunswick labour marketconditions will remain relatively sotas employment growth is projected

to decline 04 per cent in 2013 andrise 05 per cent in 2014 Slow growthin the labour orce will leave theunemployment rate at 108 per cent

over the next two years

The economic prospects or theprovince are also being held back by

slower population growth and risingout-migration Net migration is notexpected to improve signicantly

in 2013 or 2014 as international

migration is expected to remain weak and interprovincial migration althoughnot as negative as the level reported

in 2012 will not turn positive over theorecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts Rising out-migrationin some centres combined withweakened employment conditions

will have a dampening eect on

housing market activity in 2013 and2014 Single starts are orecast todecline to 1200 units in 2013 and

to 1100 units in 2014

Multiple Starts Stronger building

activity in the rental market duringthe past three years particularlyin Moncton and Fredericton hasresulted in rising vacancy rates

With an expectation that vacancyrates in New Brunswickrsquos three largesturban centers will continue to risein 2013 and 2014 developers are

expected to become more cautiousleading to a reduction in apartmentstarts As a result multiple starts areexpected to decline to 1300 units

in 2013 with a urther decline to1050 units in 2014

Resales Overall market conditionscontinue to benet potential homebuyers in 2013 as many segmentso the market have shited towards

buyerrsquos market conditions Withexpected declines in employmentin 2013 and rising out-migrationdemand is not expected to increase

substantially over the orecast periodConsequently MLSreg sales shoulddecline to 6000 units in 2013 with a

urther decline to 5800 in 2014

Prices The inventory o availablehomes is expected to remain at

historically high levels in NewBrunswickrsquos large urban centresin 2013 and 2014 This will impact

the level o price growth The MLSreg average price is expected to decreaseto $161000 in 2013 and again to$160500 in 2014

New Brunswick Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 2500 or 2013 and 2150 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2175-2825 units or 2013 and

1500-2800 or 2014

Figure 7

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1433

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nva Scta

ovv

The province o Nova Scotia isexpected to record economic

growth o 10 per cent in 2013 and15 per cent in 2014 Economic

conditions are expected to slowlyimprove over the orecast periodHaliaxrsquos shipbuilding industry willadd to growth as current and uture

construction repair and maintenanceprojects are expected to createeconomic activity over the short

and medium term The energy sectorwill add to provincial production inthe second hal o 2013The benets

o a lower Canadian dollar will also beelt by companies exporting materialsand goods

Nova Scotia labour market conditionswill remain stable in 2013 asemployment growth is projected torise 04 per cent this year compared

to growth o 06 per cent in 2012In 2014 the rise in growth will be to09 per cent as a result o a moderaterise in private sector investment

activity A similar level in the growtho the labour orce in 2013 and 2014will leave the unemployment rate

close to 90 per cent in both years

For 2013 interprovincial migration willmoderate to close to 4000 people

as was reported in 2012 The level o interprovincial migration will remainnegative in 2014 at close to -2000

people The level o internationalmigration will drop close to -2000 in

2013 and -1350 in 2014 As a resultnet-migration will remain negative at

-2000 in 2013 and -750 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 modestemployment growth and shitingconsumer demand will result in a

decline in single-detached startsto 1840 units For 2014 expecteconomic growth to stimulatedemand in the new homes market

resulting in a rise to 1975 single-detached starts in the province

Multiple Starts The provincialmulti-amily segment o themarket will continue to be drivenby apartment-style rental unit

construction most o which will takeplace in Haliax Demand or rentalhousing will be largely driven by anaging population base that is looking

to downsize or move to one-foorliving accommodations Expect semi-detached and row units to also remain

a popular alternative over the orecastperiod or rst-time home buyersMultiple starts will total 2185 unitsin 2013 beore declining to 2100

starts in 2014

Resales Following a slight increase

in 2012 MLSreg sales will decline in2013 to 9300 units In 2014 expecta smaller decline in provincialnet migration and an improving

employment outlook to result ina small reversal in MLSreg sales to9600 units

Prices The average sale price o anexisting home in Nova Scotia climbed37 per cent in 2012 to $220413In 2013 reduced demand will shit

market conditions towards a buyerrsquosmarket resulting in slowing pricegrowth o 07 per cent to $222000

In 2014 prices will increase to$226000 as improving economicactors will result in better marketconditions

Nova Scotia Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 4025 or 2013 and 4075 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 3525-4525 units or 2013 and 3075-5075 or 2014

Figure 8

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Pnc edad

island

ovv

Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic

growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent

declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the

prospects or manuacturing andexports

Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support

the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth

o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment

rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon

The economic prospects or the

province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012

Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about

500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts The slowdown in

population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units

in 2014

Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a

continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise

in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply

o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014

Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will

impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014

Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will

also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be

$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014

Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is

refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014

Figure 9

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nfndland and

Laad

ovv

Newoundland and Labrador will see

a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise

to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil

production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related

private sector investment activity

One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness

in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador

Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth

is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the

rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the

unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years

Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over

the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population

growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in

2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but

the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period

in Dtal

Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and

2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single

starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity

is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single

starts in 2014

Multiple Starts Multiple unit

construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast

period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014

Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a

decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to

improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net

migration increases

Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels

elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average

MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000

in 2014

Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)

00

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and

2200-3600 or 2014

Figure 10

13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Canada Starts (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 11

The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

3 6 0 6

3 4 8 8

3 8 8 5

3 0 5 0

2 9 0 0

2 7 2 6

3 0 6 9

3 4 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 8 0 0

3 3 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 8 0

- 3 3

1 1 4

- 2 1 5

- 4 9

- 2 4 7

1 2 6

1 0 8

- 1 1 8

- 6 7

1 7 9

- 9 1

- 1 6 7

P E I

7 5 6

9 4 0

9 4 1

8 0 0

7 0 0

9 2 0

7 5 7

7 7 5

7 5 5

6 5 0

7 4 0

7 4 5

6 6 5

- 1 3 8

2 4 3

0 1

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 5

- 4 0

- 1 7 7

2 4

- 2 6

- 1 3 9

1 3 8

0 7

- 1 0 7

N S

4 3 0 9

4 6 4 4

4 5 2 2

4 0 2 5

4 0 7 5

4 6 1 1

3 4 5 6

4 1 5 0

3 8 5 0

3 6 0 0

4 5 0 0

4 3 0 0

3 9 0 0

2 5 3

7 8

- 2 6

- 1 1 0

1 2

- 1 1 0

- 2 5 0

2 0 1

- 7 2

- 6 5

2 5 0

- 4 4

- 9 3

N B

4 1 0 1

3 4 5 2

3 2 9 9

2 5 0 0

2 1 5 0

3 4 2 9

2 9 0 4

1 9 0 0

1 7 7 5

1 7 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 6 5

-

1 5 8

- 4 4

- 2 4 2

- 1 4 0

1 6 3

- 1 5 3

- 3 4 6

- 6 6

- 4 2

4 1 2

4 2

- 2 0 0

Q U E

5 1 3 6 3

4 8 3 8 7

4 7 3 6 7

3 8 5 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 5 9 2 6

3 8 1 0 4

3 9 8 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

3 9 7 5 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

1 8 3

- 5 8

- 2 1

- 1 8 7

3 4

- 2 0 3

6 1

4 5

0 5

- 0 6

0 1

0 0

0 0

O N T

6 0 4 3 3

6 7 8 2 1

7 6 7 4 2

5 8 6 0 0

5 9 4 0 0

5 6 7 1 5

5 7 9 3 1

5 9 4 5 0

6 0 2 5 0

6 0 8 0 0

6 0 2 0 0

5 9 0 0 0

5 7 7 0 0

2 0 0

1 2 2

1 3 2

- 2 3 6

1 4

- 1 8 2

2 1

2 6

1 3

0 9

- 1 0

- 2 0

- 2 2

M A N

5 8 8 8

6 0 8 3

7 2 4 2

7 1 0 0

7 0 0 0

6 8 1 0

7 3 8 2

7 0 0 0

7 1 0 0

7 1 0 0

6 8 0 0

6 9 0 0

7 0 0 0

4 1 1

3 3

1 9 1

- 2 0

- 1 4

6 1

8 4

- 5 2

1 4

0 0

- 4 2

1 5

1 4

S A S K

5 9 0 7

7 0 3 1

9 9 6 8

7 5 0 0

7 7 0 0

6 5 5 8

7 4 9 7

7 9 0 0

8 0 0 0

7 6 0 0

7 9 0 0

7 7 0 0

7 6 0 0

5 2 8

1 9 0

4 1 8

- 2 4 8

2 7

- 4 0 7

1 4 3

5 4

1 3

- 5 0

3 9

- 2 5

- 1 3

A L T A

2 7 0 8 8

2 5 7 0 4

3 3 3 9 6

3 3 8 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 3 7 2 5

3 9 1 6 2

3 1 4 0 0

3 0 9 0 0

3 4 0 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 4 2 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 3 5

- 5 1

2 9 9

1 2

1 8

- 2 2

1 6 1

- 1 9 8

- 1 6

1 0 0

1 2

- 0 6

2 3

B C

2 6 4 7 9

2 6 4 0 0

2 7 4 6 5

2 7 1 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 4 0 3 6

2 5 2 7 3

2 9 5 0 0

2 9 5 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 3 0 0

6 4 7

- 0 3

4 0

- 1 3

5 5

- 1 8

5 1

1 6 7

0 0

- 2 7

- 0 3

0 3

- 1 4

C A N

1 8 9 9 3 0

1 9 3 9 5 0

2 1 4 8 2 7

1 8 2 8 0 0

1 8 6 6 0 0

1 7 5 4 5 6

1 8 5 5 3 5

1 8 5 3 0 0

1 8 5 1 0 0

1 8 6 7 0 0

1 8 8 6 0 0

1

8 6 8 0 0

1 8 4 5 0 0

2 7 4

2 1

1 0 8

- 1 4 9

2 1

- 1 3 8

5 7

- 0 1

- 0 1

0 8

1 0

- 1 0

- 1 3

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1

8 8 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6

0 0 - 2

0 7 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8

0 0 u n

i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 12: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1233

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Qc

ovv

In Quebec relatively slow economicand employment growth will reduce

demand o existing and new homesthis year Easing resale markets and

relatively high inventories o newdwellings will signicantly lowerhousing starts in 2013 Nonethelessdemographic trends will support

housing demand into 2014 at whichtime a strengthening economy andtightening resale markets will energize

both the resale and new housingmarkets

On the economic ront Quebecrsquoslabour markets still eel the impacts o a slow recovery south o the borderand o more avourable employment

prospects in western Canada Whilebusiness investment has increasedsolidly rms have ocused on xedcapital rather than on hiring For this

reason employment will progress at arelatively slow pace in 2013 and 2014(14 per cent each year) Meanwhilepublic and consumer spending have

increased moderately while exportlevels remained stable GDP growth o between 15 and 22 per cent growth

is expected during the orecasthorizon

Demographic trends will continue

to support the provincersquos housingmarkets in the next two yearsSustained immigration to the province

will still have a positive impact ondemand in the rental market as

fows are expected to remain stableover the orecast horizon Total

net migration is expected to reachrespectively 44700 and 45300persons in 2013 and 2014 Whilemoderating demand rom younger

households cools rst-time buyingpopulation aging will prompt some

older households to re-enter themarket in response to their evolvinghousing needs

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 moderate jobgrowth the continued easing o the

resale market which is expectedto attract a greater part o housingdemand and the trend toward multi-amily dwelling will contribute to

reduce single starts and translateinto a total o 13700 single-detachedhomes started In 2014 a tighter

resale market will bring some supportto the new housing market segmentwhich is expected to result in14100 single starts

Multiple Starts The trend towardthe multi-amily market segment is

explained by its relative aordability

the changing needs o an agingpopulation and by densicationtrends Fuelled by the popularity o

condominium apartments supply inthis market segment has increasedsignicantly As a result o threeyears o sustained construction rom

2010 to 2012 market conditions inthis market have eased signicantly

Starts o multi-amily dwellings willthus decrease considerably this yearMultiple starts will descend below the25000 level in 2013 and rise to the

25700 mark in 2014

Resales While holding steady in 2012

sales recorded by Centrisreg12 havebeen recently declining as a resulto the overall economic contextdiscussed previously Despite a certain

rebound expected in the secondhal o this year resales will come inat a lower level this year For 2013

73000 such transactions are orecastAs buying conditions improve totalresales will be back in growth modenext year In total 75700 Centrisreg

sales are orecast or 2014

Prices Relatively lower demand orresale homes combined with rising

supply has taken pressure o price

growth in recent quarters and shouldcontinue to do so throughout this

coming year With a return to morebalanced conditions price growthin the resale market will continueto moderate in 2013 The average

price recorded by Centrisreg will reach$269100 in 2013 and $272000next year

Quebec Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 38500 or 2013 and 39800 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 37500-39500 units or 2013 and 35600-44000 or 2014

Figure 6

12 The Centrisreg system contains all the listings o Quebec real estate brokers

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1333

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

N bnsck

ovv

GDP growth is expected to remainweak over the orecast period with

03 per cent growth orecast or theprovince in 2013 and 10 per cent in

2014 The current weakness stemsrom a reduction in capital investmentThe natural resources sector a keydriver or economic growth in the

province is also expected to postmixed results in 2013

New Brunswick labour marketconditions will remain relatively sotas employment growth is projected

to decline 04 per cent in 2013 andrise 05 per cent in 2014 Slow growthin the labour orce will leave theunemployment rate at 108 per cent

over the next two years

The economic prospects or theprovince are also being held back by

slower population growth and risingout-migration Net migration is notexpected to improve signicantly

in 2013 or 2014 as international

migration is expected to remain weak and interprovincial migration althoughnot as negative as the level reported

in 2012 will not turn positive over theorecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts Rising out-migrationin some centres combined withweakened employment conditions

will have a dampening eect on

housing market activity in 2013 and2014 Single starts are orecast todecline to 1200 units in 2013 and

to 1100 units in 2014

Multiple Starts Stronger building

activity in the rental market duringthe past three years particularlyin Moncton and Fredericton hasresulted in rising vacancy rates

With an expectation that vacancyrates in New Brunswickrsquos three largesturban centers will continue to risein 2013 and 2014 developers are

expected to become more cautiousleading to a reduction in apartmentstarts As a result multiple starts areexpected to decline to 1300 units

in 2013 with a urther decline to1050 units in 2014

Resales Overall market conditionscontinue to benet potential homebuyers in 2013 as many segmentso the market have shited towards

buyerrsquos market conditions Withexpected declines in employmentin 2013 and rising out-migrationdemand is not expected to increase

substantially over the orecast periodConsequently MLSreg sales shoulddecline to 6000 units in 2013 with a

urther decline to 5800 in 2014

Prices The inventory o availablehomes is expected to remain at

historically high levels in NewBrunswickrsquos large urban centresin 2013 and 2014 This will impact

the level o price growth The MLSreg average price is expected to decreaseto $161000 in 2013 and again to$160500 in 2014

New Brunswick Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 2500 or 2013 and 2150 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2175-2825 units or 2013 and

1500-2800 or 2014

Figure 7

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1433

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nva Scta

ovv

The province o Nova Scotia isexpected to record economic

growth o 10 per cent in 2013 and15 per cent in 2014 Economic

conditions are expected to slowlyimprove over the orecast periodHaliaxrsquos shipbuilding industry willadd to growth as current and uture

construction repair and maintenanceprojects are expected to createeconomic activity over the short

and medium term The energy sectorwill add to provincial production inthe second hal o 2013The benets

o a lower Canadian dollar will also beelt by companies exporting materialsand goods

Nova Scotia labour market conditionswill remain stable in 2013 asemployment growth is projected torise 04 per cent this year compared

to growth o 06 per cent in 2012In 2014 the rise in growth will be to09 per cent as a result o a moderaterise in private sector investment

activity A similar level in the growtho the labour orce in 2013 and 2014will leave the unemployment rate

close to 90 per cent in both years

For 2013 interprovincial migration willmoderate to close to 4000 people

as was reported in 2012 The level o interprovincial migration will remainnegative in 2014 at close to -2000

people The level o internationalmigration will drop close to -2000 in

2013 and -1350 in 2014 As a resultnet-migration will remain negative at

-2000 in 2013 and -750 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 modestemployment growth and shitingconsumer demand will result in a

decline in single-detached startsto 1840 units For 2014 expecteconomic growth to stimulatedemand in the new homes market

resulting in a rise to 1975 single-detached starts in the province

Multiple Starts The provincialmulti-amily segment o themarket will continue to be drivenby apartment-style rental unit

construction most o which will takeplace in Haliax Demand or rentalhousing will be largely driven by anaging population base that is looking

to downsize or move to one-foorliving accommodations Expect semi-detached and row units to also remain

a popular alternative over the orecastperiod or rst-time home buyersMultiple starts will total 2185 unitsin 2013 beore declining to 2100

starts in 2014

Resales Following a slight increase

in 2012 MLSreg sales will decline in2013 to 9300 units In 2014 expecta smaller decline in provincialnet migration and an improving

employment outlook to result ina small reversal in MLSreg sales to9600 units

Prices The average sale price o anexisting home in Nova Scotia climbed37 per cent in 2012 to $220413In 2013 reduced demand will shit

market conditions towards a buyerrsquosmarket resulting in slowing pricegrowth o 07 per cent to $222000

In 2014 prices will increase to$226000 as improving economicactors will result in better marketconditions

Nova Scotia Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 4025 or 2013 and 4075 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 3525-4525 units or 2013 and 3075-5075 or 2014

Figure 8

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Pnc edad

island

ovv

Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic

growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent

declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the

prospects or manuacturing andexports

Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support

the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth

o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment

rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon

The economic prospects or the

province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012

Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about

500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts The slowdown in

population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units

in 2014

Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a

continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise

in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply

o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014

Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will

impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014

Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will

also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be

$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014

Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is

refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014

Figure 9

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nfndland and

Laad

ovv

Newoundland and Labrador will see

a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise

to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil

production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related

private sector investment activity

One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness

in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador

Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth

is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the

rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the

unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years

Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over

the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population

growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in

2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but

the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period

in Dtal

Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and

2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single

starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity

is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single

starts in 2014

Multiple Starts Multiple unit

construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast

period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014

Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a

decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to

improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net

migration increases

Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels

elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average

MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000

in 2014

Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)

00

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and

2200-3600 or 2014

Figure 10

13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Canada Starts (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 11

The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

3 6 0 6

3 4 8 8

3 8 8 5

3 0 5 0

2 9 0 0

2 7 2 6

3 0 6 9

3 4 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 8 0 0

3 3 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 8 0

- 3 3

1 1 4

- 2 1 5

- 4 9

- 2 4 7

1 2 6

1 0 8

- 1 1 8

- 6 7

1 7 9

- 9 1

- 1 6 7

P E I

7 5 6

9 4 0

9 4 1

8 0 0

7 0 0

9 2 0

7 5 7

7 7 5

7 5 5

6 5 0

7 4 0

7 4 5

6 6 5

- 1 3 8

2 4 3

0 1

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 5

- 4 0

- 1 7 7

2 4

- 2 6

- 1 3 9

1 3 8

0 7

- 1 0 7

N S

4 3 0 9

4 6 4 4

4 5 2 2

4 0 2 5

4 0 7 5

4 6 1 1

3 4 5 6

4 1 5 0

3 8 5 0

3 6 0 0

4 5 0 0

4 3 0 0

3 9 0 0

2 5 3

7 8

- 2 6

- 1 1 0

1 2

- 1 1 0

- 2 5 0

2 0 1

- 7 2

- 6 5

2 5 0

- 4 4

- 9 3

N B

4 1 0 1

3 4 5 2

3 2 9 9

2 5 0 0

2 1 5 0

3 4 2 9

2 9 0 4

1 9 0 0

1 7 7 5

1 7 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 6 5

-

1 5 8

- 4 4

- 2 4 2

- 1 4 0

1 6 3

- 1 5 3

- 3 4 6

- 6 6

- 4 2

4 1 2

4 2

- 2 0 0

Q U E

5 1 3 6 3

4 8 3 8 7

4 7 3 6 7

3 8 5 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 5 9 2 6

3 8 1 0 4

3 9 8 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

3 9 7 5 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

1 8 3

- 5 8

- 2 1

- 1 8 7

3 4

- 2 0 3

6 1

4 5

0 5

- 0 6

0 1

0 0

0 0

O N T

6 0 4 3 3

6 7 8 2 1

7 6 7 4 2

5 8 6 0 0

5 9 4 0 0

5 6 7 1 5

5 7 9 3 1

5 9 4 5 0

6 0 2 5 0

6 0 8 0 0

6 0 2 0 0

5 9 0 0 0

5 7 7 0 0

2 0 0

1 2 2

1 3 2

- 2 3 6

1 4

- 1 8 2

2 1

2 6

1 3

0 9

- 1 0

- 2 0

- 2 2

M A N

5 8 8 8

6 0 8 3

7 2 4 2

7 1 0 0

7 0 0 0

6 8 1 0

7 3 8 2

7 0 0 0

7 1 0 0

7 1 0 0

6 8 0 0

6 9 0 0

7 0 0 0

4 1 1

3 3

1 9 1

- 2 0

- 1 4

6 1

8 4

- 5 2

1 4

0 0

- 4 2

1 5

1 4

S A S K

5 9 0 7

7 0 3 1

9 9 6 8

7 5 0 0

7 7 0 0

6 5 5 8

7 4 9 7

7 9 0 0

8 0 0 0

7 6 0 0

7 9 0 0

7 7 0 0

7 6 0 0

5 2 8

1 9 0

4 1 8

- 2 4 8

2 7

- 4 0 7

1 4 3

5 4

1 3

- 5 0

3 9

- 2 5

- 1 3

A L T A

2 7 0 8 8

2 5 7 0 4

3 3 3 9 6

3 3 8 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 3 7 2 5

3 9 1 6 2

3 1 4 0 0

3 0 9 0 0

3 4 0 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 4 2 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 3 5

- 5 1

2 9 9

1 2

1 8

- 2 2

1 6 1

- 1 9 8

- 1 6

1 0 0

1 2

- 0 6

2 3

B C

2 6 4 7 9

2 6 4 0 0

2 7 4 6 5

2 7 1 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 4 0 3 6

2 5 2 7 3

2 9 5 0 0

2 9 5 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 3 0 0

6 4 7

- 0 3

4 0

- 1 3

5 5

- 1 8

5 1

1 6 7

0 0

- 2 7

- 0 3

0 3

- 1 4

C A N

1 8 9 9 3 0

1 9 3 9 5 0

2 1 4 8 2 7

1 8 2 8 0 0

1 8 6 6 0 0

1 7 5 4 5 6

1 8 5 5 3 5

1 8 5 3 0 0

1 8 5 1 0 0

1 8 6 7 0 0

1 8 8 6 0 0

1

8 6 8 0 0

1 8 4 5 0 0

2 7 4

2 1

1 0 8

- 1 4 9

2 1

- 1 3 8

5 7

- 0 1

- 0 1

0 8

1 0

- 1 0

- 1 3

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1

8 8 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6

0 0 - 2

0 7 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8

0 0 u n

i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 13: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1333

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

N bnsck

ovv

GDP growth is expected to remainweak over the orecast period with

03 per cent growth orecast or theprovince in 2013 and 10 per cent in

2014 The current weakness stemsrom a reduction in capital investmentThe natural resources sector a keydriver or economic growth in the

province is also expected to postmixed results in 2013

New Brunswick labour marketconditions will remain relatively sotas employment growth is projected

to decline 04 per cent in 2013 andrise 05 per cent in 2014 Slow growthin the labour orce will leave theunemployment rate at 108 per cent

over the next two years

The economic prospects or theprovince are also being held back by

slower population growth and risingout-migration Net migration is notexpected to improve signicantly

in 2013 or 2014 as international

migration is expected to remain weak and interprovincial migration althoughnot as negative as the level reported

in 2012 will not turn positive over theorecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts Rising out-migrationin some centres combined withweakened employment conditions

will have a dampening eect on

housing market activity in 2013 and2014 Single starts are orecast todecline to 1200 units in 2013 and

to 1100 units in 2014

Multiple Starts Stronger building

activity in the rental market duringthe past three years particularlyin Moncton and Fredericton hasresulted in rising vacancy rates

With an expectation that vacancyrates in New Brunswickrsquos three largesturban centers will continue to risein 2013 and 2014 developers are

expected to become more cautiousleading to a reduction in apartmentstarts As a result multiple starts areexpected to decline to 1300 units

in 2013 with a urther decline to1050 units in 2014

Resales Overall market conditionscontinue to benet potential homebuyers in 2013 as many segmentso the market have shited towards

buyerrsquos market conditions Withexpected declines in employmentin 2013 and rising out-migrationdemand is not expected to increase

substantially over the orecast periodConsequently MLSreg sales shoulddecline to 6000 units in 2013 with a

urther decline to 5800 in 2014

Prices The inventory o availablehomes is expected to remain at

historically high levels in NewBrunswickrsquos large urban centresin 2013 and 2014 This will impact

the level o price growth The MLSreg average price is expected to decreaseto $161000 in 2013 and again to$160500 in 2014

New Brunswick Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 2500 or 2013 and 2150 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2175-2825 units or 2013 and

1500-2800 or 2014

Figure 7

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1433

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nva Scta

ovv

The province o Nova Scotia isexpected to record economic

growth o 10 per cent in 2013 and15 per cent in 2014 Economic

conditions are expected to slowlyimprove over the orecast periodHaliaxrsquos shipbuilding industry willadd to growth as current and uture

construction repair and maintenanceprojects are expected to createeconomic activity over the short

and medium term The energy sectorwill add to provincial production inthe second hal o 2013The benets

o a lower Canadian dollar will also beelt by companies exporting materialsand goods

Nova Scotia labour market conditionswill remain stable in 2013 asemployment growth is projected torise 04 per cent this year compared

to growth o 06 per cent in 2012In 2014 the rise in growth will be to09 per cent as a result o a moderaterise in private sector investment

activity A similar level in the growtho the labour orce in 2013 and 2014will leave the unemployment rate

close to 90 per cent in both years

For 2013 interprovincial migration willmoderate to close to 4000 people

as was reported in 2012 The level o interprovincial migration will remainnegative in 2014 at close to -2000

people The level o internationalmigration will drop close to -2000 in

2013 and -1350 in 2014 As a resultnet-migration will remain negative at

-2000 in 2013 and -750 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 modestemployment growth and shitingconsumer demand will result in a

decline in single-detached startsto 1840 units For 2014 expecteconomic growth to stimulatedemand in the new homes market

resulting in a rise to 1975 single-detached starts in the province

Multiple Starts The provincialmulti-amily segment o themarket will continue to be drivenby apartment-style rental unit

construction most o which will takeplace in Haliax Demand or rentalhousing will be largely driven by anaging population base that is looking

to downsize or move to one-foorliving accommodations Expect semi-detached and row units to also remain

a popular alternative over the orecastperiod or rst-time home buyersMultiple starts will total 2185 unitsin 2013 beore declining to 2100

starts in 2014

Resales Following a slight increase

in 2012 MLSreg sales will decline in2013 to 9300 units In 2014 expecta smaller decline in provincialnet migration and an improving

employment outlook to result ina small reversal in MLSreg sales to9600 units

Prices The average sale price o anexisting home in Nova Scotia climbed37 per cent in 2012 to $220413In 2013 reduced demand will shit

market conditions towards a buyerrsquosmarket resulting in slowing pricegrowth o 07 per cent to $222000

In 2014 prices will increase to$226000 as improving economicactors will result in better marketconditions

Nova Scotia Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 4025 or 2013 and 4075 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 3525-4525 units or 2013 and 3075-5075 or 2014

Figure 8

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Pnc edad

island

ovv

Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic

growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent

declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the

prospects or manuacturing andexports

Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support

the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth

o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment

rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon

The economic prospects or the

province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012

Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about

500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts The slowdown in

population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units

in 2014

Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a

continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise

in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply

o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014

Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will

impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014

Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will

also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be

$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014

Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is

refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014

Figure 9

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nfndland and

Laad

ovv

Newoundland and Labrador will see

a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise

to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil

production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related

private sector investment activity

One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness

in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador

Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth

is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the

rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the

unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years

Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over

the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population

growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in

2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but

the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period

in Dtal

Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and

2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single

starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity

is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single

starts in 2014

Multiple Starts Multiple unit

construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast

period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014

Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a

decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to

improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net

migration increases

Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels

elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average

MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000

in 2014

Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)

00

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and

2200-3600 or 2014

Figure 10

13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Canada Starts (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 11

The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

3 6 0 6

3 4 8 8

3 8 8 5

3 0 5 0

2 9 0 0

2 7 2 6

3 0 6 9

3 4 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 8 0 0

3 3 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 8 0

- 3 3

1 1 4

- 2 1 5

- 4 9

- 2 4 7

1 2 6

1 0 8

- 1 1 8

- 6 7

1 7 9

- 9 1

- 1 6 7

P E I

7 5 6

9 4 0

9 4 1

8 0 0

7 0 0

9 2 0

7 5 7

7 7 5

7 5 5

6 5 0

7 4 0

7 4 5

6 6 5

- 1 3 8

2 4 3

0 1

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 5

- 4 0

- 1 7 7

2 4

- 2 6

- 1 3 9

1 3 8

0 7

- 1 0 7

N S

4 3 0 9

4 6 4 4

4 5 2 2

4 0 2 5

4 0 7 5

4 6 1 1

3 4 5 6

4 1 5 0

3 8 5 0

3 6 0 0

4 5 0 0

4 3 0 0

3 9 0 0

2 5 3

7 8

- 2 6

- 1 1 0

1 2

- 1 1 0

- 2 5 0

2 0 1

- 7 2

- 6 5

2 5 0

- 4 4

- 9 3

N B

4 1 0 1

3 4 5 2

3 2 9 9

2 5 0 0

2 1 5 0

3 4 2 9

2 9 0 4

1 9 0 0

1 7 7 5

1 7 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 6 5

-

1 5 8

- 4 4

- 2 4 2

- 1 4 0

1 6 3

- 1 5 3

- 3 4 6

- 6 6

- 4 2

4 1 2

4 2

- 2 0 0

Q U E

5 1 3 6 3

4 8 3 8 7

4 7 3 6 7

3 8 5 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 5 9 2 6

3 8 1 0 4

3 9 8 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

3 9 7 5 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

1 8 3

- 5 8

- 2 1

- 1 8 7

3 4

- 2 0 3

6 1

4 5

0 5

- 0 6

0 1

0 0

0 0

O N T

6 0 4 3 3

6 7 8 2 1

7 6 7 4 2

5 8 6 0 0

5 9 4 0 0

5 6 7 1 5

5 7 9 3 1

5 9 4 5 0

6 0 2 5 0

6 0 8 0 0

6 0 2 0 0

5 9 0 0 0

5 7 7 0 0

2 0 0

1 2 2

1 3 2

- 2 3 6

1 4

- 1 8 2

2 1

2 6

1 3

0 9

- 1 0

- 2 0

- 2 2

M A N

5 8 8 8

6 0 8 3

7 2 4 2

7 1 0 0

7 0 0 0

6 8 1 0

7 3 8 2

7 0 0 0

7 1 0 0

7 1 0 0

6 8 0 0

6 9 0 0

7 0 0 0

4 1 1

3 3

1 9 1

- 2 0

- 1 4

6 1

8 4

- 5 2

1 4

0 0

- 4 2

1 5

1 4

S A S K

5 9 0 7

7 0 3 1

9 9 6 8

7 5 0 0

7 7 0 0

6 5 5 8

7 4 9 7

7 9 0 0

8 0 0 0

7 6 0 0

7 9 0 0

7 7 0 0

7 6 0 0

5 2 8

1 9 0

4 1 8

- 2 4 8

2 7

- 4 0 7

1 4 3

5 4

1 3

- 5 0

3 9

- 2 5

- 1 3

A L T A

2 7 0 8 8

2 5 7 0 4

3 3 3 9 6

3 3 8 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 3 7 2 5

3 9 1 6 2

3 1 4 0 0

3 0 9 0 0

3 4 0 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 4 2 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 3 5

- 5 1

2 9 9

1 2

1 8

- 2 2

1 6 1

- 1 9 8

- 1 6

1 0 0

1 2

- 0 6

2 3

B C

2 6 4 7 9

2 6 4 0 0

2 7 4 6 5

2 7 1 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 4 0 3 6

2 5 2 7 3

2 9 5 0 0

2 9 5 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 3 0 0

6 4 7

- 0 3

4 0

- 1 3

5 5

- 1 8

5 1

1 6 7

0 0

- 2 7

- 0 3

0 3

- 1 4

C A N

1 8 9 9 3 0

1 9 3 9 5 0

2 1 4 8 2 7

1 8 2 8 0 0

1 8 6 6 0 0

1 7 5 4 5 6

1 8 5 5 3 5

1 8 5 3 0 0

1 8 5 1 0 0

1 8 6 7 0 0

1 8 8 6 0 0

1

8 6 8 0 0

1 8 4 5 0 0

2 7 4

2 1

1 0 8

- 1 4 9

2 1

- 1 3 8

5 7

- 0 1

- 0 1

0 8

1 0

- 1 0

- 1 3

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1

8 8 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6

0 0 - 2

0 7 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8

0 0 u n

i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 14: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1433

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nva Scta

ovv

The province o Nova Scotia isexpected to record economic

growth o 10 per cent in 2013 and15 per cent in 2014 Economic

conditions are expected to slowlyimprove over the orecast periodHaliaxrsquos shipbuilding industry willadd to growth as current and uture

construction repair and maintenanceprojects are expected to createeconomic activity over the short

and medium term The energy sectorwill add to provincial production inthe second hal o 2013The benets

o a lower Canadian dollar will also beelt by companies exporting materialsand goods

Nova Scotia labour market conditionswill remain stable in 2013 asemployment growth is projected torise 04 per cent this year compared

to growth o 06 per cent in 2012In 2014 the rise in growth will be to09 per cent as a result o a moderaterise in private sector investment

activity A similar level in the growtho the labour orce in 2013 and 2014will leave the unemployment rate

close to 90 per cent in both years

For 2013 interprovincial migration willmoderate to close to 4000 people

as was reported in 2012 The level o interprovincial migration will remainnegative in 2014 at close to -2000

people The level o internationalmigration will drop close to -2000 in

2013 and -1350 in 2014 As a resultnet-migration will remain negative at

-2000 in 2013 and -750 in 2014

in Dtal

Single Starts In 2013 modestemployment growth and shitingconsumer demand will result in a

decline in single-detached startsto 1840 units For 2014 expecteconomic growth to stimulatedemand in the new homes market

resulting in a rise to 1975 single-detached starts in the province

Multiple Starts The provincialmulti-amily segment o themarket will continue to be drivenby apartment-style rental unit

construction most o which will takeplace in Haliax Demand or rentalhousing will be largely driven by anaging population base that is looking

to downsize or move to one-foorliving accommodations Expect semi-detached and row units to also remain

a popular alternative over the orecastperiod or rst-time home buyersMultiple starts will total 2185 unitsin 2013 beore declining to 2100

starts in 2014

Resales Following a slight increase

in 2012 MLSreg sales will decline in2013 to 9300 units In 2014 expecta smaller decline in provincialnet migration and an improving

employment outlook to result ina small reversal in MLSreg sales to9600 units

Prices The average sale price o anexisting home in Nova Scotia climbed37 per cent in 2012 to $220413In 2013 reduced demand will shit

market conditions towards a buyerrsquosmarket resulting in slowing pricegrowth o 07 per cent to $222000

In 2014 prices will increase to$226000 as improving economicactors will result in better marketconditions

Nova Scotia Starts (000s)

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 4025 or 2013 and 4075 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 3525-4525 units or 2013 and 3075-5075 or 2014

Figure 8

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Pnc edad

island

ovv

Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic

growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent

declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the

prospects or manuacturing andexports

Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support

the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth

o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment

rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon

The economic prospects or the

province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012

Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about

500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts The slowdown in

population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units

in 2014

Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a

continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise

in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply

o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014

Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will

impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014

Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will

also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be

$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014

Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is

refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014

Figure 9

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nfndland and

Laad

ovv

Newoundland and Labrador will see

a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise

to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil

production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related

private sector investment activity

One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness

in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador

Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth

is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the

rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the

unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years

Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over

the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population

growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in

2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but

the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period

in Dtal

Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and

2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single

starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity

is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single

starts in 2014

Multiple Starts Multiple unit

construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast

period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014

Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a

decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to

improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net

migration increases

Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels

elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average

MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000

in 2014

Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)

00

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and

2200-3600 or 2014

Figure 10

13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Canada Starts (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 11

The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

3 6 0 6

3 4 8 8

3 8 8 5

3 0 5 0

2 9 0 0

2 7 2 6

3 0 6 9

3 4 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 8 0 0

3 3 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 8 0

- 3 3

1 1 4

- 2 1 5

- 4 9

- 2 4 7

1 2 6

1 0 8

- 1 1 8

- 6 7

1 7 9

- 9 1

- 1 6 7

P E I

7 5 6

9 4 0

9 4 1

8 0 0

7 0 0

9 2 0

7 5 7

7 7 5

7 5 5

6 5 0

7 4 0

7 4 5

6 6 5

- 1 3 8

2 4 3

0 1

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 5

- 4 0

- 1 7 7

2 4

- 2 6

- 1 3 9

1 3 8

0 7

- 1 0 7

N S

4 3 0 9

4 6 4 4

4 5 2 2

4 0 2 5

4 0 7 5

4 6 1 1

3 4 5 6

4 1 5 0

3 8 5 0

3 6 0 0

4 5 0 0

4 3 0 0

3 9 0 0

2 5 3

7 8

- 2 6

- 1 1 0

1 2

- 1 1 0

- 2 5 0

2 0 1

- 7 2

- 6 5

2 5 0

- 4 4

- 9 3

N B

4 1 0 1

3 4 5 2

3 2 9 9

2 5 0 0

2 1 5 0

3 4 2 9

2 9 0 4

1 9 0 0

1 7 7 5

1 7 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 6 5

-

1 5 8

- 4 4

- 2 4 2

- 1 4 0

1 6 3

- 1 5 3

- 3 4 6

- 6 6

- 4 2

4 1 2

4 2

- 2 0 0

Q U E

5 1 3 6 3

4 8 3 8 7

4 7 3 6 7

3 8 5 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 5 9 2 6

3 8 1 0 4

3 9 8 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

3 9 7 5 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

1 8 3

- 5 8

- 2 1

- 1 8 7

3 4

- 2 0 3

6 1

4 5

0 5

- 0 6

0 1

0 0

0 0

O N T

6 0 4 3 3

6 7 8 2 1

7 6 7 4 2

5 8 6 0 0

5 9 4 0 0

5 6 7 1 5

5 7 9 3 1

5 9 4 5 0

6 0 2 5 0

6 0 8 0 0

6 0 2 0 0

5 9 0 0 0

5 7 7 0 0

2 0 0

1 2 2

1 3 2

- 2 3 6

1 4

- 1 8 2

2 1

2 6

1 3

0 9

- 1 0

- 2 0

- 2 2

M A N

5 8 8 8

6 0 8 3

7 2 4 2

7 1 0 0

7 0 0 0

6 8 1 0

7 3 8 2

7 0 0 0

7 1 0 0

7 1 0 0

6 8 0 0

6 9 0 0

7 0 0 0

4 1 1

3 3

1 9 1

- 2 0

- 1 4

6 1

8 4

- 5 2

1 4

0 0

- 4 2

1 5

1 4

S A S K

5 9 0 7

7 0 3 1

9 9 6 8

7 5 0 0

7 7 0 0

6 5 5 8

7 4 9 7

7 9 0 0

8 0 0 0

7 6 0 0

7 9 0 0

7 7 0 0

7 6 0 0

5 2 8

1 9 0

4 1 8

- 2 4 8

2 7

- 4 0 7

1 4 3

5 4

1 3

- 5 0

3 9

- 2 5

- 1 3

A L T A

2 7 0 8 8

2 5 7 0 4

3 3 3 9 6

3 3 8 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 3 7 2 5

3 9 1 6 2

3 1 4 0 0

3 0 9 0 0

3 4 0 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 4 2 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 3 5

- 5 1

2 9 9

1 2

1 8

- 2 2

1 6 1

- 1 9 8

- 1 6

1 0 0

1 2

- 0 6

2 3

B C

2 6 4 7 9

2 6 4 0 0

2 7 4 6 5

2 7 1 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 4 0 3 6

2 5 2 7 3

2 9 5 0 0

2 9 5 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 3 0 0

6 4 7

- 0 3

4 0

- 1 3

5 5

- 1 8

5 1

1 6 7

0 0

- 2 7

- 0 3

0 3

- 1 4

C A N

1 8 9 9 3 0

1 9 3 9 5 0

2 1 4 8 2 7

1 8 2 8 0 0

1 8 6 6 0 0

1 7 5 4 5 6

1 8 5 5 3 5

1 8 5 3 0 0

1 8 5 1 0 0

1 8 6 7 0 0

1 8 8 6 0 0

1

8 6 8 0 0

1 8 4 5 0 0

2 7 4

2 1

1 0 8

- 1 4 9

2 1

- 1 3 8

5 7

- 0 1

- 0 1

0 8

1 0

- 1 0

- 1 3

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1

8 8 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6

0 0 - 2

0 7 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8

0 0 u n

i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 15: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1533

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Pnc edad

island

ovv

Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic

growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent

declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the

prospects or manuacturing andexports

Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support

the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth

o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment

rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon

The economic prospects or the

province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012

Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about

500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period

in Dtal

Single Starts The slowdown in

population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units

in 2014

Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a

continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise

in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply

o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014

Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will

impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014

Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will

also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be

$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014

Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is

refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014

Figure 9

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nfndland and

Laad

ovv

Newoundland and Labrador will see

a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise

to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil

production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related

private sector investment activity

One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness

in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador

Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth

is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the

rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the

unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years

Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over

the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population

growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in

2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but

the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period

in Dtal

Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and

2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single

starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity

is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single

starts in 2014

Multiple Starts Multiple unit

construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast

period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014

Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a

decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to

improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net

migration increases

Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels

elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average

MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000

in 2014

Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)

00

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and

2200-3600 or 2014

Figure 10

13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Canada Starts (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 11

The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

3 6 0 6

3 4 8 8

3 8 8 5

3 0 5 0

2 9 0 0

2 7 2 6

3 0 6 9

3 4 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 8 0 0

3 3 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 8 0

- 3 3

1 1 4

- 2 1 5

- 4 9

- 2 4 7

1 2 6

1 0 8

- 1 1 8

- 6 7

1 7 9

- 9 1

- 1 6 7

P E I

7 5 6

9 4 0

9 4 1

8 0 0

7 0 0

9 2 0

7 5 7

7 7 5

7 5 5

6 5 0

7 4 0

7 4 5

6 6 5

- 1 3 8

2 4 3

0 1

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 5

- 4 0

- 1 7 7

2 4

- 2 6

- 1 3 9

1 3 8

0 7

- 1 0 7

N S

4 3 0 9

4 6 4 4

4 5 2 2

4 0 2 5

4 0 7 5

4 6 1 1

3 4 5 6

4 1 5 0

3 8 5 0

3 6 0 0

4 5 0 0

4 3 0 0

3 9 0 0

2 5 3

7 8

- 2 6

- 1 1 0

1 2

- 1 1 0

- 2 5 0

2 0 1

- 7 2

- 6 5

2 5 0

- 4 4

- 9 3

N B

4 1 0 1

3 4 5 2

3 2 9 9

2 5 0 0

2 1 5 0

3 4 2 9

2 9 0 4

1 9 0 0

1 7 7 5

1 7 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 6 5

-

1 5 8

- 4 4

- 2 4 2

- 1 4 0

1 6 3

- 1 5 3

- 3 4 6

- 6 6

- 4 2

4 1 2

4 2

- 2 0 0

Q U E

5 1 3 6 3

4 8 3 8 7

4 7 3 6 7

3 8 5 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 5 9 2 6

3 8 1 0 4

3 9 8 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

3 9 7 5 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

1 8 3

- 5 8

- 2 1

- 1 8 7

3 4

- 2 0 3

6 1

4 5

0 5

- 0 6

0 1

0 0

0 0

O N T

6 0 4 3 3

6 7 8 2 1

7 6 7 4 2

5 8 6 0 0

5 9 4 0 0

5 6 7 1 5

5 7 9 3 1

5 9 4 5 0

6 0 2 5 0

6 0 8 0 0

6 0 2 0 0

5 9 0 0 0

5 7 7 0 0

2 0 0

1 2 2

1 3 2

- 2 3 6

1 4

- 1 8 2

2 1

2 6

1 3

0 9

- 1 0

- 2 0

- 2 2

M A N

5 8 8 8

6 0 8 3

7 2 4 2

7 1 0 0

7 0 0 0

6 8 1 0

7 3 8 2

7 0 0 0

7 1 0 0

7 1 0 0

6 8 0 0

6 9 0 0

7 0 0 0

4 1 1

3 3

1 9 1

- 2 0

- 1 4

6 1

8 4

- 5 2

1 4

0 0

- 4 2

1 5

1 4

S A S K

5 9 0 7

7 0 3 1

9 9 6 8

7 5 0 0

7 7 0 0

6 5 5 8

7 4 9 7

7 9 0 0

8 0 0 0

7 6 0 0

7 9 0 0

7 7 0 0

7 6 0 0

5 2 8

1 9 0

4 1 8

- 2 4 8

2 7

- 4 0 7

1 4 3

5 4

1 3

- 5 0

3 9

- 2 5

- 1 3

A L T A

2 7 0 8 8

2 5 7 0 4

3 3 3 9 6

3 3 8 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 3 7 2 5

3 9 1 6 2

3 1 4 0 0

3 0 9 0 0

3 4 0 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 4 2 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 3 5

- 5 1

2 9 9

1 2

1 8

- 2 2

1 6 1

- 1 9 8

- 1 6

1 0 0

1 2

- 0 6

2 3

B C

2 6 4 7 9

2 6 4 0 0

2 7 4 6 5

2 7 1 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 4 0 3 6

2 5 2 7 3

2 9 5 0 0

2 9 5 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 3 0 0

6 4 7

- 0 3

4 0

- 1 3

5 5

- 1 8

5 1

1 6 7

0 0

- 2 7

- 0 3

0 3

- 1 4

C A N

1 8 9 9 3 0

1 9 3 9 5 0

2 1 4 8 2 7

1 8 2 8 0 0

1 8 6 6 0 0

1 7 5 4 5 6

1 8 5 5 3 5

1 8 5 3 0 0

1 8 5 1 0 0

1 8 6 7 0 0

1 8 8 6 0 0

1

8 6 8 0 0

1 8 4 5 0 0

2 7 4

2 1

1 0 8

- 1 4 9

2 1

- 1 3 8

5 7

- 0 1

- 0 1

0 8

1 0

- 1 0

- 1 3

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1

8 8 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6

0 0 - 2

0 7 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8

0 0 u n

i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 16: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1633

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Nfndland and

Laad

ovv

Newoundland and Labrador will see

a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise

to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil

production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related

private sector investment activity

One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness

in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador

Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth

is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the

rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the

unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years

Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over

the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population

growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in

2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but

the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period

in Dtal

Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and

2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single

starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity

is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single

starts in 2014

Multiple Starts Multiple unit

construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast

period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014

Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a

decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to

improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net

migration increases

Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels

elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average

MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000

in 2014

Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)

00

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic

uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and

2200-3600 or 2014

Figure 10

13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Canada Starts (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 11

The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

3 6 0 6

3 4 8 8

3 8 8 5

3 0 5 0

2 9 0 0

2 7 2 6

3 0 6 9

3 4 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 8 0 0

3 3 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 8 0

- 3 3

1 1 4

- 2 1 5

- 4 9

- 2 4 7

1 2 6

1 0 8

- 1 1 8

- 6 7

1 7 9

- 9 1

- 1 6 7

P E I

7 5 6

9 4 0

9 4 1

8 0 0

7 0 0

9 2 0

7 5 7

7 7 5

7 5 5

6 5 0

7 4 0

7 4 5

6 6 5

- 1 3 8

2 4 3

0 1

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 5

- 4 0

- 1 7 7

2 4

- 2 6

- 1 3 9

1 3 8

0 7

- 1 0 7

N S

4 3 0 9

4 6 4 4

4 5 2 2

4 0 2 5

4 0 7 5

4 6 1 1

3 4 5 6

4 1 5 0

3 8 5 0

3 6 0 0

4 5 0 0

4 3 0 0

3 9 0 0

2 5 3

7 8

- 2 6

- 1 1 0

1 2

- 1 1 0

- 2 5 0

2 0 1

- 7 2

- 6 5

2 5 0

- 4 4

- 9 3

N B

4 1 0 1

3 4 5 2

3 2 9 9

2 5 0 0

2 1 5 0

3 4 2 9

2 9 0 4

1 9 0 0

1 7 7 5

1 7 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 6 5

-

1 5 8

- 4 4

- 2 4 2

- 1 4 0

1 6 3

- 1 5 3

- 3 4 6

- 6 6

- 4 2

4 1 2

4 2

- 2 0 0

Q U E

5 1 3 6 3

4 8 3 8 7

4 7 3 6 7

3 8 5 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 5 9 2 6

3 8 1 0 4

3 9 8 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

3 9 7 5 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

1 8 3

- 5 8

- 2 1

- 1 8 7

3 4

- 2 0 3

6 1

4 5

0 5

- 0 6

0 1

0 0

0 0

O N T

6 0 4 3 3

6 7 8 2 1

7 6 7 4 2

5 8 6 0 0

5 9 4 0 0

5 6 7 1 5

5 7 9 3 1

5 9 4 5 0

6 0 2 5 0

6 0 8 0 0

6 0 2 0 0

5 9 0 0 0

5 7 7 0 0

2 0 0

1 2 2

1 3 2

- 2 3 6

1 4

- 1 8 2

2 1

2 6

1 3

0 9

- 1 0

- 2 0

- 2 2

M A N

5 8 8 8

6 0 8 3

7 2 4 2

7 1 0 0

7 0 0 0

6 8 1 0

7 3 8 2

7 0 0 0

7 1 0 0

7 1 0 0

6 8 0 0

6 9 0 0

7 0 0 0

4 1 1

3 3

1 9 1

- 2 0

- 1 4

6 1

8 4

- 5 2

1 4

0 0

- 4 2

1 5

1 4

S A S K

5 9 0 7

7 0 3 1

9 9 6 8

7 5 0 0

7 7 0 0

6 5 5 8

7 4 9 7

7 9 0 0

8 0 0 0

7 6 0 0

7 9 0 0

7 7 0 0

7 6 0 0

5 2 8

1 9 0

4 1 8

- 2 4 8

2 7

- 4 0 7

1 4 3

5 4

1 3

- 5 0

3 9

- 2 5

- 1 3

A L T A

2 7 0 8 8

2 5 7 0 4

3 3 3 9 6

3 3 8 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 3 7 2 5

3 9 1 6 2

3 1 4 0 0

3 0 9 0 0

3 4 0 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 4 2 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 3 5

- 5 1

2 9 9

1 2

1 8

- 2 2

1 6 1

- 1 9 8

- 1 6

1 0 0

1 2

- 0 6

2 3

B C

2 6 4 7 9

2 6 4 0 0

2 7 4 6 5

2 7 1 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 4 0 3 6

2 5 2 7 3

2 9 5 0 0

2 9 5 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 3 0 0

6 4 7

- 0 3

4 0

- 1 3

5 5

- 1 8

5 1

1 6 7

0 0

- 2 7

- 0 3

0 3

- 1 4

C A N

1 8 9 9 3 0

1 9 3 9 5 0

2 1 4 8 2 7

1 8 2 8 0 0

1 8 6 6 0 0

1 7 5 4 5 6

1 8 5 5 3 5

1 8 5 3 0 0

1 8 5 1 0 0

1 8 6 7 0 0

1 8 8 6 0 0

1

8 6 8 0 0

1 8 4 5 0 0

2 7 4

2 1

1 0 8

- 1 4 9

2 1

- 1 3 8

5 7

- 0 1

- 0 1

0 8

1 0

- 1 0

- 1 3

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1

8 8 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6

0 0 - 2

0 7 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8

0 0 u n

i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 17: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1733

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Canada Starts (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast

Figure 11

The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

3 6 0 6

3 4 8 8

3 8 8 5

3 0 5 0

2 9 0 0

2 7 2 6

3 0 6 9

3 4 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 8 0 0

3 3 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 8 0

- 3 3

1 1 4

- 2 1 5

- 4 9

- 2 4 7

1 2 6

1 0 8

- 1 1 8

- 6 7

1 7 9

- 9 1

- 1 6 7

P E I

7 5 6

9 4 0

9 4 1

8 0 0

7 0 0

9 2 0

7 5 7

7 7 5

7 5 5

6 5 0

7 4 0

7 4 5

6 6 5

- 1 3 8

2 4 3

0 1

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 5

- 4 0

- 1 7 7

2 4

- 2 6

- 1 3 9

1 3 8

0 7

- 1 0 7

N S

4 3 0 9

4 6 4 4

4 5 2 2

4 0 2 5

4 0 7 5

4 6 1 1

3 4 5 6

4 1 5 0

3 8 5 0

3 6 0 0

4 5 0 0

4 3 0 0

3 9 0 0

2 5 3

7 8

- 2 6

- 1 1 0

1 2

- 1 1 0

- 2 5 0

2 0 1

- 7 2

- 6 5

2 5 0

- 4 4

- 9 3

N B

4 1 0 1

3 4 5 2

3 2 9 9

2 5 0 0

2 1 5 0

3 4 2 9

2 9 0 4

1 9 0 0

1 7 7 5

1 7 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 6 5

-

1 5 8

- 4 4

- 2 4 2

- 1 4 0

1 6 3

- 1 5 3

- 3 4 6

- 6 6

- 4 2

4 1 2

4 2

- 2 0 0

Q U E

5 1 3 6 3

4 8 3 8 7

4 7 3 6 7

3 8 5 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 5 9 2 6

3 8 1 0 4

3 9 8 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

3 9 7 5 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

1 8 3

- 5 8

- 2 1

- 1 8 7

3 4

- 2 0 3

6 1

4 5

0 5

- 0 6

0 1

0 0

0 0

O N T

6 0 4 3 3

6 7 8 2 1

7 6 7 4 2

5 8 6 0 0

5 9 4 0 0

5 6 7 1 5

5 7 9 3 1

5 9 4 5 0

6 0 2 5 0

6 0 8 0 0

6 0 2 0 0

5 9 0 0 0

5 7 7 0 0

2 0 0

1 2 2

1 3 2

- 2 3 6

1 4

- 1 8 2

2 1

2 6

1 3

0 9

- 1 0

- 2 0

- 2 2

M A N

5 8 8 8

6 0 8 3

7 2 4 2

7 1 0 0

7 0 0 0

6 8 1 0

7 3 8 2

7 0 0 0

7 1 0 0

7 1 0 0

6 8 0 0

6 9 0 0

7 0 0 0

4 1 1

3 3

1 9 1

- 2 0

- 1 4

6 1

8 4

- 5 2

1 4

0 0

- 4 2

1 5

1 4

S A S K

5 9 0 7

7 0 3 1

9 9 6 8

7 5 0 0

7 7 0 0

6 5 5 8

7 4 9 7

7 9 0 0

8 0 0 0

7 6 0 0

7 9 0 0

7 7 0 0

7 6 0 0

5 2 8

1 9 0

4 1 8

- 2 4 8

2 7

- 4 0 7

1 4 3

5 4

1 3

- 5 0

3 9

- 2 5

- 1 3

A L T A

2 7 0 8 8

2 5 7 0 4

3 3 3 9 6

3 3 8 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 3 7 2 5

3 9 1 6 2

3 1 4 0 0

3 0 9 0 0

3 4 0 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 4 2 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 3 5

- 5 1

2 9 9

1 2

1 8

- 2 2

1 6 1

- 1 9 8

- 1 6

1 0 0

1 2

- 0 6

2 3

B C

2 6 4 7 9

2 6 4 0 0

2 7 4 6 5

2 7 1 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 4 0 3 6

2 5 2 7 3

2 9 5 0 0

2 9 5 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 3 0 0

6 4 7

- 0 3

4 0

- 1 3

5 5

- 1 8

5 1

1 6 7

0 0

- 2 7

- 0 3

0 3

- 1 4

C A N

1 8 9 9 3 0

1 9 3 9 5 0

2 1 4 8 2 7

1 8 2 8 0 0

1 8 6 6 0 0

1 7 5 4 5 6

1 8 5 5 3 5

1 8 5 3 0 0

1 8 5 1 0 0

1 8 6 7 0 0

1 8 8 6 0 0

1

8 6 8 0 0

1 8 4 5 0 0

2 7 4

2 1

1 0 8

- 1 4 9

2 1

- 1 3 8

5 7

- 0 1

- 0 1

0 8

1 0

- 1 0

- 1 3

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1

8 8 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6

0 0 - 2

0 7 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8

0 0 u n

i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 18: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1833

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

3 6 0 6

3 4 8 8

3 8 8 5

3 0 5 0

2 9 0 0

2 7 2 6

3 0 6 9

3 4 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 8 0 0

3 3 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 8 0

- 3 3

1 1 4

- 2 1 5

- 4 9

- 2 4 7

1 2 6

1 0 8

- 1 1 8

- 6 7

1 7 9

- 9 1

- 1 6 7

P E I

7 5 6

9 4 0

9 4 1

8 0 0

7 0 0

9 2 0

7 5 7

7 7 5

7 5 5

6 5 0

7 4 0

7 4 5

6 6 5

- 1 3 8

2 4 3

0 1

- 1 5 0

- 1 2 5

- 4 0

- 1 7 7

2 4

- 2 6

- 1 3 9

1 3 8

0 7

- 1 0 7

N S

4 3 0 9

4 6 4 4

4 5 2 2

4 0 2 5

4 0 7 5

4 6 1 1

3 4 5 6

4 1 5 0

3 8 5 0

3 6 0 0

4 5 0 0

4 3 0 0

3 9 0 0

2 5 3

7 8

- 2 6

- 1 1 0

1 2

- 1 1 0

- 2 5 0

2 0 1

- 7 2

- 6 5

2 5 0

- 4 4

- 9 3

N B

4 1 0 1

3 4 5 2

3 2 9 9

2 5 0 0

2 1 5 0

3 4 2 9

2 9 0 4

1 9 0 0

1 7 7 5

1 7 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

1 6 5

-

1 5 8

- 4 4

- 2 4 2

- 1 4 0

1 6 3

- 1 5 3

- 3 4 6

- 6 6

- 4 2

4 1 2

4 2

- 2 0 0

Q U E

5 1 3 6 3

4 8 3 8 7

4 7 3 6 7

3 8 5 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 5 9 2 6

3 8 1 0 4

3 9 8 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

3 9 7 5 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

3 9 8 0 0

1 8 3

- 5 8

- 2 1

- 1 8 7

3 4

- 2 0 3

6 1

4 5

0 5

- 0 6

0 1

0 0

0 0

O N T

6 0 4 3 3

6 7 8 2 1

7 6 7 4 2

5 8 6 0 0

5 9 4 0 0

5 6 7 1 5

5 7 9 3 1

5 9 4 5 0

6 0 2 5 0

6 0 8 0 0

6 0 2 0 0

5 9 0 0 0

5 7 7 0 0

2 0 0

1 2 2

1 3 2

- 2 3 6

1 4

- 1 8 2

2 1

2 6

1 3

0 9

- 1 0

- 2 0

- 2 2

M A N

5 8 8 8

6 0 8 3

7 2 4 2

7 1 0 0

7 0 0 0

6 8 1 0

7 3 8 2

7 0 0 0

7 1 0 0

7 1 0 0

6 8 0 0

6 9 0 0

7 0 0 0

4 1 1

3 3

1 9 1

- 2 0

- 1 4

6 1

8 4

- 5 2

1 4

0 0

- 4 2

1 5

1 4

S A S K

5 9 0 7

7 0 3 1

9 9 6 8

7 5 0 0

7 7 0 0

6 5 5 8

7 4 9 7

7 9 0 0

8 0 0 0

7 6 0 0

7 9 0 0

7 7 0 0

7 6 0 0

5 2 8

1 9 0

4 1 8

- 2 4 8

2 7

- 4 0 7

1 4 3

5 4

1 3

- 5 0

3 9

- 2 5

- 1 3

A L T A

2 7 0 8 8

2 5 7 0 4

3 3 3 9 6

3 3 8 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 3 7 2 5

3 9 1 6 2

3 1 4 0 0

3 0 9 0 0

3 4 0 0 0

3 4 4 0 0

3 4 2 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 3 5

- 5 1

2 9 9

1 2

1 8

- 2 2

1 6 1

- 1 9 8

- 1 6

1 0 0

1 2

- 0 6

2 3

B C

2 6 4 7 9

2 6 4 0 0

2 7 4 6 5

2 7 1 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 4 0 3 6

2 5 2 7 3

2 9 5 0 0

2 9 5 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 6 0 0

2 8 7 0 0

2 8 3 0 0

6 4 7

- 0 3

4 0

- 1 3

5 5

- 1 8

5 1

1 6 7

0 0

- 2 7

- 0 3

0 3

- 1 4

C A N

1 8 9 9 3 0

1 9 3 9 5 0

2 1 4 8 2 7

1 8 2 8 0 0

1 8 6 6 0 0

1 7 5 4 5 6

1 8 5 5 3 5

1 8 5 3 0 0

1 8 5 1 0 0

1 8 6 7 0 0

1 8 8 6 0 0

1

8 6 8 0 0

1 8 4 5 0 0

2 7 4

2 1

1 0 8

- 1 4 9

2 1

- 1 3 8

5 7

- 0 1

- 0 1

0 8

1 0

- 1 0

- 1 3

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1

8 8 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6

0 0 - 2

0 7 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8

0 0 u n

i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 19: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 1933

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 9 4 1

2 6 1 2

2 5 2 3

2 2 5 0

2 1 0 0

2 3 1 9

2 4 7 6

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

1 8 0 0

1 2 9

- 1

1 2

- 3 4

- 1 0 8

- 6 7

- 5 9

6 8

- 1 1 1

- 9 1

0 0

2 0 0

- 8 3

- 1 8 2

P E I

3 9 6

4 3 1

3 8 7

3 1 5

2 9 0

3 2 3

3 5 1

3 0 0

2 9 0

2 7 5

2 9 0

3 1 0

2 9 0

- 7 9

8 8

- 1 0 2

- 1 8 6

- 7 9

- 1 2 9

8 7

- 1 4 5

- 3 3

- 5 2

5 5

6 9

- 6 5

N S

2 3 9 2

2 0 4 5

2 2 5 8

1 8 4 0

1 9 7 5

1 5 8 0

1 6 1 5

2 1 0 0

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

2 1 0 0

2 1 0 0

1 9 0 0

9 1

- 1

4 5

1 0 4

- 1 8 5

7 3

- 3 0 6

2 2

3 0 0

- 2 4

- 1 2 2

1 6 7

0 0

- 9 5

N B

2 0 6 8

1 8 2 3

1 6 9 7

1 2 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 2 8 6

1 1 5 9

1 1 5 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

- 4 0

- 1

1 8

- 6 9

- 2 9 3

- 8 3

- 8 5

- 9 9

- 0 8

4 3

- 1 6 7

2 0 0

0 0

- 1 6 7

Q U E

1 9 5 4 9

1 6 5 5 4

1 6 0 5 9

1 3 7 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 3 1 1 7

1 3 7 4 2

1 3 8 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1

4 1 0 0

1 4 1 0 0

1 1 5

- 1

5 3

- 3 0

- 1 4 7

2 9

- 1 3 8

4 8

0 4

1 4

0 0

0 7

0 0

0 0

O N T

2 8 0 8 9

2 6 8 8 4

2 5 5 6 7

2 3 0 0 0

2 3 9 0 0

2 3 1 0 1

2 3 2 2 8

2 2 7 0 0

2 3 0 0 0

2 4 3 0 0

2 4 2 0 0

2

4 0 0 0

2 3 2 0 0

2 4 1

-

4 3

- 4 9

- 1 0 0

3 9

- 6 8

0 5

- 2 3

1 3

5 7

- 0 4

- 0 8

- 3 3

M A N

3 9 7 6

3 8 3 1

4 1 6 9

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 8 4 2

3 9 1 8

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 1 0 0

3 0 7

-

3 6

8 8

- 4 1

2 5

- 7 3

2 0

4 6

0 0

2 4

- 4 8

2 5

0 0

S A S K

3 8 3 0

4 1 5 2

5 1 7 1

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 9 2 2

3 7 4 5

4 3 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 2 0 0

3 5 4

8 4

2 4 5

- 2 0 7

2 4

- 1 9 5

- 4 5

1 4 8

2 3

- 6 8

7 3

- 6 8

2 4

A L T A

1 7 8 5 1

1 5 1 9 3

1 7 4 9 3

1 8 2 0 0

1 8 9 0 0

1 9 2 8 0

1 8 1 3 4

1 7 5 0 0

1 7 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1

8 8 0 0

1 9 0 0 0

2 4 4

- 1

4 9

1 5 1

4 0

3 8

9 1

- 5 9

- 3 5

1 7

6 7

- 1 1

0 0

1 1

B C

1 1 4 6 2

8 8 6 7

8 3 3 3

9 0 0 0

9 9 0 0

8 2 7 9

7 6 3 7

9 7 0 0

1 0 4 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

9 9 0 0

9 8 0 0

4 5 2

- 2

2 6

- 6 0

8 0

1 0 0

2 3

- 7 8

2 7 0

7 2

- 4 8

- 1 0

1 0

- 1 0

C A N

9 2 5 5 4

8 2 3 9 2

8 3 6 5 7

7 7 5 0 0

8 0 5 0 0

7 7 0 4 9

7 6 0 0 5

7 7 9 0 0

7 9 2 0 0

8 0 6 0 0

8 1 3 0 0

8

0 8 0 0

7 9 4 0 0

2 2 3

- 1

1 0

1 5

- 7 4

3 9

- 5 2

- 1 4

2 4

1 8

1 7

0 9

- 0 6

- 1 8

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e

p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7

5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t

y i s r e f l e c t e d

b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

7 5 1

0 0 - 7

9 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3

0 0 - 8

9 7

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l

r a t e s

T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u

n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E C M H C

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 20: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2033

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

6 6 5

8 7 6

1 3 6 2

8 0 0

8 0 0

4 0 7

5 9 3

1 2 0 0

1 0 0 0

8 0 0

9 0 0

8 0 0

7 0 0

4 7 5

3 1 7

5 5 5

- 4 1 3

0 0

- 6 4 8

4 5 7

1 0 2 4

- 1 6 7

- 2 0 0

1 2 5

- 1 1 1

- 1 2 5

P E I

3 6 0

5 0 9

5 5 4

4 8 5

4 1 0

5 9 7

4 0 6

4 7 5

4 6 5

3 7 5

4 5 0

4 3 5

3 7 5

- 1 9 5

4 1 4

8 8

- 1 2 5

- 1 5 5

1 7

- 3 2 0

1 7 0

- 2 1

- 1 9 4

2 0 0

- 3 3

- 1 3 8

N S

1 9 1 7

2

5 9 9

2 2 6 4

2 1 8 5

2 1 0 0

3 0 3 1

1 8 4 1

2 0 5 0

1 8 0 0

1 8 0 0

2 4 0 0

2 2 0 0

2 0 0 0

5 4 0

3 5 6

- 1 2 9

- 3 5

- 3 9

4 3

- 3 9 3

1 1 4

- 1 2 2

0 0

3 3 3

- 8 3

- 9 1

N B

2 0 3 3

1

6 2 9

1 6 0 2

1 3 0 0

1 0 5 0

2 1 4 3

1 7 4 5

7 5 0

5 7 5

7 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 0 0 0

4 8 7

- 1 9 9

- 1 7

- 1 8 8

- 1 9 2

3 9 0

- 1 8 6

- 5 7 0

- 2 3 3

2 1 7

7 1 4

8 3

- 2 3 1

Q U E

3 1 8 1 4

3 1

8 3 3

3 1 3 0 8

2 4 8 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 2 8 0 9

2 4 3 6 2

2 6 0 0 0

2 6 0 0 0

2 5 7 5 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 5 7 0 0

2 3 0

0 1

- 1 6

- 2 0 8

3 6

- 2 3 6

6 8

6 7

0 0

- 1 0

- 0 2

0 0

0 0

O N T

3 2 3 4 4

4 0

9 3 7

5 1 1 7 5

3 5 6 0 0

3 5 5 0 0

3 3 6 1 4

3 4 7 0 3

3 6 7 5 0

3 7 2 5 0

3 6 5 0 0

3 6 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

3 4 5 0 0

1 6 6

2 6 6

2 5 0

- 3 0 4

- 0 3

- 2 4 5

3 2

5 9

1 4

- 2 0

- 1 4

- 2 8

- 1 4

M A N

1 9 1 2

2

2 5 2

3 0 7 3

3 1 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 9 6 8

3 4 6 4

2 9 0 0

3 0 0 0

2 9 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 8 0 0

2 9 0 0

6 8 9

1 7 8

3 6 5

0 9

- 6 5

3 0 6

1 6 7

- 1 6 3

3 4

- 3 3

- 3 4

0 0

3 6

S A S K

2 0 7 7

2

8 7 9

4 7 9 7

3 4 0 0

3 5 0 0

2 6 3 6

3 7 5 2

3 6 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

3 4 0 0

1 0 0 3

3 8 6

6 6 6

- 2 9 1

2 9

- 5 7 4

4 2 3

- 4 1

0 0

- 2 8

0 0

2 9

- 5 6

A L T A

9 2 3 7

1 0

5 1 1

1 5 9 0 3

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 5 0 0

1 4 4 4 5

2 1 0 2 8

1 3 9 0 0

1 3 1 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 0 0

1 5 4 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

5 5 1

1 3 8

5 1 3

- 1 9

- 0 6

- 1 4 2

4 5 6

- 3 3 9

- 5 8

1 4 5

4 0

- 1 3

3 9

B C

1 5 0 1 7

1 7

5 3 3

1 9 1 3 2

1 8 1 0 0

1 8 7 0 0

1 5 7 5 7

1 7 6 3 6

1 9 8 0 0

1 9 1 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 8 0 0

1 8 5 0 0

8 3 5

1 6 8

9 1

- 5 4

3 3

- 3 8

1 1 9

1 2 3

- 3 5

- 1 6

0 0

0 0

- 1 6

C A N

9 7 3 7 6

1 1 1

5 5 8

1 3 1 1 7 0

1 0 5 3 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

9 8 4 0 7

1 0 9 5 3 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 5 9 0 0

1 0 6 1 0 0

1 0 7 4 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0

1 0 5 1 0 0

3 2 6

1 4 6

1 7 6

- 1 9 7

0 8

- 1 9 5

1 1 3

- 1 9

- 1 4

0 2

1 2

- 1 2

- 0 9

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

S O U R C E C M H C

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t

e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i s 1 0 5 3

0 0 u n i t s

f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 0 6 1

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c

t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

1 0

2 0

0 0 - 1

0 8 6

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 9 4 3

0 0 - 1

1 7 9

0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l r a t e s

T a

b l e 3 M u l t i p l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 21: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2133

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 86 85

Row 149 135 121 90 90

Apartment 390 654 1153 625 625

Total665 876 1362 801 800

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 85

Row 50 47 127 75 75

Apartment 241 392 333 335 250

Total 360 509 554 485 410

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 325 350

Row 200 241 218 185 200

Apartment 1344 1940 1626 1675 1550

Total 1917 2599 2264 2185 2100

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 275 250

Row 221 211 162 125 110

Apartment 1337 946 1014 900 690

Total 2033 1629 1602 1300 1050

QUE Semi-Detached 4359 4002 3866 3300 3600

Row 2029 1855 1904 1500 1600

Apartment 25426 25976 25538 20000 20500

Total 31814 31833 31308 24800 25700

ONT Semi-Detached 3006 3142 3397 3200 3500

Row 10255 9288 10577 7900 9000

Apartment 19083 28507 37201 24500 23000

Total 32344 40937 51175 35600 35500

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 268 250

Row 387 672 538 349 327

Apartment 1344 1337 2189 2483 2323

Total 1912 2252 3073 3100 2900

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 424 437

Row 485 878 813 692 712

Apartment 1366 1758 3300 2284 2351

Total 2077 2879 4797 3400 3500

ALTA Semi-Detached 2737 2811 3886 3602 3579

Row 2596 2473 3315 3607 3584

Apartment 3904 5227 8702 8391 8337

Total 9237 10511 15903 15600 15500

BC Semi-Detached 1454 1082 1078 1250 1200

Row 3485 3647 3201 3300 3600

Apartment 10078 12804 14853 13550 13900

Total 15017 17533 19132 18100 18700

CAN Semi-Detached 13006 12570 14285 12737 13276

Row 19857 19447 20976 17823 19298

Apartment 64513 79541 95909 74743 73526

Total 97376 111558 131170 105303 106100

Source CMHC (F) Forecast Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 4 Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 22: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2233

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

4 2 3 6

4 4 8 0

4 6 5 0

4 0 0 0

4 1 0 0

4 4 8 4

4 4 1 6

3 5 0 0

3 6 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 2 0 0

4 0 0 0

- 4 1

5 8

3 8

- 1 4

0

2 5

3 0

- 1 5

- 2 0

7

2 9

1 1

1

5 0

0 0

- 4 8

P E I

1 4 8 7

1 5 2 1

1 6 1 4

1 4 2 5

1 3 5 0

1 6 5 6

1 6 7 6

1 2 7 5

1 1 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 3 0 0

5 9

2 3

6 1

- 1 1

7

- 5 2

2 2

5

1 2

- 2 3

9

- 1 3

7

1 8

2

7 7

0 0

- 7 1

N S

1 0 0 3 6

1 0 3 1 2

1 0 4 3 7

9 3 0 0

9 6 0 0

9 0 3 2

9 0 2 0

9 8 0 0

9 3 5 0

9 2 5 0

9 7 5 0

9 8 0 0

9 6 0 0

0 1

2 8

1 2

- 1 0

9

3 2

- 4 5

- 0 1

8 6

- 4 6

- 1 1

5 4

0 5

- 2 0

N B

6 7 0 2

6 5 9 9

6 4 0 3

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 1 4 0

6 4 6 8

5 6 5 0

5 7 5 0

5 6 0 0

5 8 0 0

6 0 0 0

5 8 0 0

- 4 3

- 1 5

- 3 0

- 6 3

- 3 3

- 0 1

5 3

- 1 2

6

1 8

- 2 6

3 6

3 4

- 3 3

Q U E

8 0 0 2 7

7 7 1 6 8

7 7 3 8 2

7 3 0 0 0

7 5 7 0 0

7 0 6 6 0

7 3 2 5 2

7 3 6 0 0

7 4 4 0 0

7 4 9 0 0

7 5 4 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

7 6 5 0 0

1 2

- 3 6

0 3

- 5 7

3 7

- 2 8

3 7

0 5

1 1

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 7

O N T

1 9 6 6 6 2

2 0 1 7 6 1

1 9 7 6 2 0

1 9 5 4 0 0

2 0 2 8 0 0

1 8 7 0 6 8

1 9 6 9 2 8

1 9 8 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 0 0

2 0 3 5 0 0

2 0 5 5 0 0

2

0 2 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 2

2 6

- 2 1

- 1 1

3 8

0 4

5 3

0 5

0 8

2 0

1 0

- 1 7

- 1 0

M A N

1 3 1 6 4

1 3 9 4 4

1 4 0 0 8

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 0 8 0

1 3 8 1 6

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 6 0 0

1 3 8 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

1 3 7 0 0

0 6

5 9

0 5

- 2 9

0 7

- 5 8

5 6

- 0 1

0 0

- 1 4

1 5

- 0 7

0 0

S A S K

1 0 8 7 2

1 3 1 3 1

1 3 9 5 0

1 3 2 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 2 2 4 8

1 3 8 2 8

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

1 3 3 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 5 0 0

1 3 4 0 0

- 2 0

2 0

8

6 2

- 5 4

1 5

- 5 5

1 2

9

- 2 4

- 0 7

- 0 7

1 5

0 0

- 0 7

A L T A

4 9 7 2 3

5 3 7 5 6

6 0 3 6 9

6 2 7 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 1 0 1 6

6 4 7 8 0

6 1 8 0 0

6 3 1 0 0

6 4 0 0 0

6 4 4 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

6 4 2 0 0

- 1 3

6

8 1

1 2

3

3 9

2 4

3 6

6 2

- 4 6

2 1

1 4

0 6

- 0 3

0 0

B C

7 4 6 4 0

7 6 7 2 1

6 7 6 3 7

7 0 1 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

6 1 5 2 8

6 9 8 9 6

7 2 5 0 0

7 6 4 0 0

7 7 0 0 0

7 8 0 0 0

7 6 9 0 0

7 6 0 0 0

- 1 2

2

2 8

- 1 1

8

3 6

9 8

- 1 2

1 3

6

3 7

5 4

0 8

1 3

- 1 4

- 1 2

C A N

4 4 7 5 4 9

4 5 9 3 9 3

4 5 3 3 7 2

4 4 8 9 0 0

4 6 7 6 0 0

4 2 7 3 5 6

4 5 4 5 0 0

4 5 3 4 0 0

4 6 0 4 0 0

4 6 6 5 0 0

4 7 1 8 0 0

4

6 7 7 0 0

4 6 4 5 0 0

- 3 9

2 6

- 1 3

- 1 0

4 2

- 0 3

6 4

- 0 2

1 5

1 3

1 1

- 0 9

- 0 7

N o t e

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l m a y n o t a

d d t o t h e s u m

o f t h e p r o v

i n c e s

d u e t o r o u n

d i n g

c u r r e n t r a n g e o

f f o r e c a s t s w

h i c h v a r i e s

f r o m

4 3 1 6 0 0

- 4 6 6

2 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 3 7

7 0 0

- 4 9 7

5 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

Q u a r t e r l y

l e v e

l s a r e s e a s o n a

l l y a

d j u s t e

d a t a n n u

a l r a t e s

T a b l e 5 T o t a l R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e s

( u n i t s

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n ( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n t r i s reg

( F ) F o r e c a s t

b y

C M H C

C a n a

d i a n t o t a

l d o e s n o t

i n c

l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s

T h e p o

i n t e s t i m a t e

f o r t h e

f o r e c a s t o

f n a t i o n a

l r e s i d e n t i a

l r e s a

l e s

i s 4

4 8

9 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 3 a n

d 4 6 7

6 0 0 u n

i t s f o r

2 0 1 4

E c o n o m

i c u n c e r t a

i n t y

i s r e

f l e c t e

d b y t h e

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 23: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2333

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 ( F )

2 0 1 3 Q 1

2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )

2 0 1

4 Q 3 ( F )

2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )

N F L D

2 3 5 3 4 1

2 5 1

5 8 1

2 6 8 7 7 6

2 8 2 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 5 7 3 7

2 8 3 3 2 5

2 7 9 6 7 5

2 7 8 0 0 0

2 8 0 0 0 0

2 9 0 0 0 0

2 8 5 0 0 0

2 8 4 7 5 0

1 4 0

6 9

6 8

4 9

1 1

1 2

- 0 8

- 1 3

- 0 6

0 7

3 6

- 1 7

- 0 1

P E I

1 4 7 1 9 6

1 4 9

6 1 8

1 5 2 2 5 0

1 5 5 0 0 0

1 5 6 5 0 0

1 4 5 4 9 3

1 5 6 7 8 1

1 6 8 4 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

1 5 7 6 5 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

0 8

1 6

1 8

1 8

1 0

- 6 4

7 8

7 4

- 1 0 9

0 0

5 1

1 5

- 1 3

N S

2 0 6 1 8 6

2 1 2

5 1 2

2 2 0 4 1 3

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 6 0 0 0

2 2 0 1 8 4

2 1 8 6 2 7

2 2 3 9 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0 0 0

2 2 9 7 5 0

2 2 7 0 0 0

4 8

3 1

3 7

0 7

1 8

0 2

- 0 7

2 4

0 5

- 1 3

1 4

2 1

- 1 2

N B

1 5 7 2 4 0

1 6 0

5 4 5

1 6 1 1 1 6

1 6 1 0 0 0

1 6 0 5 0 0

1 5 9 7 0 7

1 6 2 2 5 0

1 6 1 7 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5 8 0 0 0

1 6 1 8 7 5

1 6 2 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 5

2 1

0 4

- 0 1

- 0 3

- 1 3

1 6

- 0 3

- 1 1

- 1 3

2 5

0 1

- 1 2

Q U E

2 4 1 4 5 5

2 6 1

4 5 2

2 6 6 4 7 3

2 6 9 1 0 0

2 7 2 0 0 0

2 7 5 8 4 3

2 6 8 6 2 2

2 6 5 7 0 0

2 6 6 8 0 0

2 6 8 7 0 0

2 7 1 4 0 0

2 7 3 3 0 0

2 7 4 6 0 0

7 1

8 3

1 9

1 0

1 1

0 6

- 2 6

- 1 1

0 4

0 7

1 0

0 7

0 5

O N T

3 4 1 4 2 5

3 6 5

0 1 8

3 8 4 4 5 5

3 9 7 4 0 0

4 0 4 4 0 0

3 9 0 7 0 6

3 9 8 6 8 0

3 9 9 5 0 0

4 0 0 5 0 0

4 0 2 3 9 0

4 0 4 0 0 0

4 0 5 5 0 0

4 0 6 0 0 0

7 5

6 9

5 3

3 4

1 8

2 2

2 0

0 2

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 1

M A N

2 2 2 1 3 2

2 3 4

6 0 4

2 4 6 3 1 8

2 5 6 6 0 0

2 6 3 0 0 0

2 5 5 5 3 6

2 5 4 0 9 3

2 5 6 5 0 0

2 5 8 4 0 0

2 6 0 7 0 0

2 6 2 5 0 0

2 6 3 9 0 0

2 6 4 9 0 0

1 0 3

5 6

5 0

4 2

2 5

- 0 9

- 0 6

0 9

0 7

0 9

0 7

0 5

0 4

S A S K

2 4 2 2 5 8

2 5 9

4 6 1

2 7 4 2 6 8

2 8 8 0 0 0

2 9 4 1 0 0

2 8 4 4 3 7

2 8 7 5 8 2

2 8 7 0 0 0

2 8 9 0 0 0

2 9 2 0 0 0

2 9 3 0 0 0

2 9 4 0 0 0

2 9 5 0 0 0

4 0

7 1

5 7

5 0

2 1

0 1

1 1

- 0 2

0 7

1 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

A L T A

3 5 2 3 0 1

3 5 3

3 9 4

3 6 3 2 0 8

3 7 6 3 0 0

3 8 5 3 0 0

3 7 6 1 1 7

3 7 5 6 4 8

3 7 6 0 0 0

3 7 8 0 0 0

3 8 1 0 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

3 8 7 0 0 0

3 8 9 0 0 0

3 1

0 3

2 8

3 6

2 4

1 4

- 0 1

0 1

0 5

0 8

0 8

0 8

0 5

B C

5 0 5 1 7 8

5 6 1

3 0 4

5 1 4 8 3 6

5 1 8 3 0 0

5 2 3 2 0 0

5 1 3 9 3 0

5 1 9 1 5 4

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 0 0 0 0

5 2 1 0 0 0

5 2 3 4 0 0

5 2 4 0 0 0

5 2 5 0 0 0

8 5

1 1 1

- 8 3

0 7

0 9

2 1

1 0

0 2

0 0

0 2

0 5

0 1

0 2

C A N

3 3 8 7 1 0

3 6 3

8 8 6

3 6 4 9 3 0

3 7 4 8 0 0

3 8 2 8 0 0

3 6 8 6 8 5

3 7 5 1 3 9

3 7 6 5 0 0

3 7 8 5 0 0

3 8 0 5 0 0

3 8 3 0 0 0

3 8 3 7 0 0

3 8 4 0 0 0

5 8

7 4

0 3

2 7

2 1

2 0

1 8

0 4

0 5

0 5

0 7

0 2

0 1

( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C

Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d

N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f

t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g

C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e

c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m

$ 3

6 9 1

0 0 - $

3 8 0 5

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7

0 0 - $

3 9 3 9

0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4

T a b l e 6

A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e

( $

a n d

p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e )

S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n

( C R E A ) Q F R E B b y t h e C e n t r i s reg

s y s t e m

F C I Q

p a r l e s y s t egrave m e C e n

t r i s reg

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 24: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2433

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 10 -29 33 27 23 20 12

PEI 12 -13 29 20 11 25 10

NS 09 -01 02 01 06 04 09

NB 06 01 -09 -12 -02 -04 05

QUE 12 -08 17 10 08 14 14

ONT 16 -25 17 18 08 15 17

MAN 17 00 19 08 09 10 13

SASK 17 13 09 03 21 29 17

ALTA 31 -14 -04 38 27 20 21

BC 20 -21 17 08 17 04 15

CAN 17 -16 14 16 12 14 14

to 20 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 10 per cent to 18 per cent for 2013 and 08 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 14 per cent for 2013 and 14 per cent for 2014 Economic

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 7 Employment

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 25: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2533

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 132 155 144 127 125 114 114

PEI 108 121 112 113 113 109 110

NS 77 92 93 88 90 90 91

NB 85 88 93 95 102 108 108

QUE 72 85 80 78 78 77 74

ONT 65 90 87 78 78 75 72

MAN 42 52 54 54 53 53 53

SASK 41 48 52 50 47 42 43

ALTA 36 66 65 55 46 46 46

BC 46 77 76 75 67 67 70

CAN 61 83 80 74 72 71 69

to 73 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 68 per cent to 74 per cent for 2013 and 65 per cent

The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 71 per cent for 2013 and 69 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

Table 8 Unemployment Rate

(per cent)

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 26: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2633

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -10 -103 63 30 -05 35 20

PEI 09 03 26 16 10 15 13

NS 25 -03 19 05 07 10 15

NB 09 -06 31 00 07 03 10

QUE 14 -05 25 19 08 15 22

ONT -02 -35 32 18 15 15 26

MAN 40 -04 25 20 25 19 20

SASK 54 -40 44 49 22 21 28

ALTA 16 -44 40 51 34 20 30

BC 11 -25 32 28 22 19 25

CAN 11 -28 32 26 17 17 24

30 per cent for 2014

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 12 per cent to 22 per cent for 2013 and 18 per cent to

National forecast reflects the July 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics

The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 17 per cent for 2013 and 24 per cent for 2014 Economic

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC (E) Estimate based on partial annual data by CMHC

(annual percentage change)

Table 9 Gross Domestic Product

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 27: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2733

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 383 3088 603 896 70 500 750

PEI 1222 1650 2531 1169 3 -250 -350

NS 1683 3440 3446 754 -1737 -2000 -750

NB 1128 1881 2381 670 -1569 -1350 -1000

QUE 36795 48714 45284 43460 44977 44700 45300

ONT 87703 93974 109647 97281 77511 83100 93600

MAN 6345 9862 11055 9931 9116 8600 8500

SASK 9499 9989 8995 11742 16018 11900 12100

ALTA 57452 30891 19635 42673 85978 75900 63000

BC 64943 60061 43405 35248 27328 38000 41300

CAN 267153 263550 246982 243824 257695 259100 262450

Note Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding

Sum of interprovincial migration international migration and non-permanent residents

Excludes territories

Source Statistics Canada (F) Forecast by CMHC

(number of persons)

Table 10 Total Net Migration

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 28: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2833

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Victoria 2012 1700 552 -10 5460 484164 27 1059

2013(F) 1600 500 -10 5500 480000 23 1061

2014(F) 1700 620 14 5800 490000 20 1066

Vancouver 2012 19027 3381 -05 25445 730036 18 1261

2013(F) 18200 3950 -02 25500 736000 15 1300

2014(F) 18700 3800 21 28500 745000 12 1330

Abbotsford-Mission 2012 371 198 na 2332 339488 42 818

2013(F) 550 200 na 2200 335000 39 825

2014(F) 535 235 na 2300 340000 36 835

Kelowna 2012 836 544 na 3516 400027 40 927

2013(F) 1000 600 na 3750 402000 35 935

2014(F) 1100 650 na 4000 408000 30 942

Edmonton 2012 12837 5658 09 17641 334319 17 1071

2013(F) 13200 5800 13 18400 345000 14 1120

2014(F) 11500 5900 18 18800 353000 16 1160

Calgary 2012 12841 5961 17 26634 412315 13 11502013(F) 11400 6200 42 27500 435000 10 1230

2014(F) 12800 6500 30 28300 445000 12 1280

Saskatoon 2012 3753 2025 23 5462 315834 26 1002

2013(F) 2725 1600 17 5200 331500 28 1040

2014(F) 2725 1625 15 5300 339000 28 1065

Regina 2012 3093 1289 44 3952 301145 10 979

2013(F) 2475 1100 31 3600 317500 15 1025

2014(F) 2525 1125 30 3700 326000 16 1060

Winnipeg 2012 4065 2129 42 12094 255059 17 911

2013(F) 4300 2250 47 11600 266000 20 945

2014(F) 4200 2200 40 11800 274300 22 975

Thunder Bay 2012 380 227 14 1366 194123 11 818

2013(F) 340 210 15 1300 210000 09 840

2014(F) 370 220 16 1330 220000 07 860

Greater Sudbury 2012 536 294 13 2478 240312 27 915

Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925

2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930

Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778

2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790

2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805

White Rock and North Delta

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11a Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 29: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 2933

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

London 2012 2240 1234 13 8272 241160 39 919

2013(F) 2020 1160 17 8015 245750 34 930

2014(F) 2100 1260 18 8155 251000 32 940

Kitchener-Cambridge- 2012 2900 871 29 6314 312419 26 908

Waterloo 2013(F) 1725 675 15 6500 322000 30 930

2014(F) 2330 700 20 6550 324000 32 940

St Catharines- 2012 1137 678 18 5554 232050 40 862

Niagara 2013(F) 1178 755 10 5375 238425 36 870

2014(F) 1223 795 10 5450 244385 32 890

Hamilton 2012 2969 1389 15 13035 360059 35 886

2013(F) 2650 1200 13 12900 380000 32 900

2014(F) 2800 1300 14 13200 390600 30 920

Toronto 2012 48105 10699 51 88157 498973 17 1183

2013(F) 34450 9500 24 86400 511000 15 1215

2014(F) 34500 10000 20 89500 519000 17 1230

Barrie 2012 782 474 na 4574 298000 20 10372013(F) 825 500 na 4500 314000 23 1060

2014(F) 800 455 na 4550 320000 25 1070

Peterborough 2012 343 197 na 2553 264946 27 904

2013(F) 290 180 na 2515 268000 30 915

2014(F) 320 190 na 2560 272500 32 920

Brantford 2012 402 286 na 1983 245436 35 838

2013(F) 350 200 na 2060 253000 32 850

2014(F) 370 240 na 2100 258000 30 870

Guelph 2012 731 275 na 2929 325553 14 941

2013(F) 850 200 na 3010 338000 17 965

2014(F) 765 215 na 3010 342000 19 975

Oshawa 2012 1798 1160 na 10280 333202 21 939

2013(F) 1310 920 na 10000 348500 20 955

2014(F) 1380 980 na 10200 353000 22 965

Kingston 2012 896 449 na 3321 270275 17 1005

2013(F) 640 390 na 3150 273900 21 1035

2014(F) 725 400 na 3225 278200 16 1055

MLSreg data for St Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the areas three real estate boards

MLSreg numbers reflect all of Durham Region

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

Table 11b Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 30: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3033

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

Census Metropolitan Total Housing Single- NHPI Annual MLSreg MLSreg Avg Rental Vac Rate Average Rent

Area Starts Detached Change Sales Price (3+ units all bedrooms) (3+ units two bedrooms)

Ottawa 2012 6026 1592 26 14497 352610 25 1115

2013(F) 5475 1575 17 14000 355000 30 1145

2014(F) 5245 1600 20 14200 358500 27 1150

Gatineau 2012 2759 688 26 3865 238807 33 743

2013(F) 1550 425 17 3675 243000 40 760

2014(F) 1600 400 20 3700 246500 42 770

Montreal 2012 20591 3959 13 40091 321075 28 711

2013(F) 17000 3200 10 37500 325000 27 720

2014(F) 16600 3100 12 40200 328500 25 730

Trois-Riviegraveres 2012 1026 305 na 1026 154558 52 550

2013(F) 825 250 na 940 156000 55 560

2014(F) 700 225 na 880 157000 60 565

Sherbrooke 2012 1741 610 na 1784 216662 50 578

2013(F) 1450 500 na 1680 217000 50 585

2014(F) 1550 525 na 1700 218000 48 595

Queacutebec 2012 6416 1257 30 7219 257942 20 7412013(F) 4800 1000 20 6700 268500 25 755

2014(F) 4400 950 20 7100 278500 25 770

Saguenay 2012 1117 400 na 1450 185623 20 549

2013(F) 985 355 na 1325 190000 25 565

2014(F) 845 325 na 1375 195000 28 575

Saint John 2012 355 190 -01 1610 168048 97 691

2013(F) 260 120 05 1450 167000 105 700

2014(F) 240 100 08 1350 166500 110 710

Moncton 2012 1297 364 -01 2259 158107 67 731

2013(F) 1000 250 05 2100 156500 78 745

2014(F) 770 240 08 1950 156000 85 760

Halifax 2012 2754 991 22 6046 268843 30 954

2013(F) 2550 865 25 5350 273000 35 980

2014(F) 2605 900 30 5800 279000 45 1000

St Johns 2012 2153 1292 02 3871 285529 28 798

2013(F) 1750 1200 10 3450 300000 35 825

2014(F) 1625 1150 10 3400 306000 38 850

Charlottetown 2012 612 224 02 575 204319 57 803

2013(F) 515 175 05 500 205000 90 835

2014(F) 400 150 05 475 205500 105 860

ALL 35 LISTED 2012 169306 52378 22 342727 393407 26 901

CENTRES 2013(F) 141177 48659 18 335229 405281 25 926

2014(F) 141213 49868 20 348233 414696 25 941

Table 11c Local Market Indicators

Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis

Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000

na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 31: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3133

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

New Housing

Building permits units thousands 2010 2082 2120 2219 2219 1929 1780 2288 change 09 36 18 46 00 -131 -77 285

Housing starts total thousands 2047 2017 2052 2289 2216 2035 1755 1855

change 53 -15 18 116 -32 -82 -138 57

Housing starts singles thousands 851 849 842 845 848 813 770 760

change 34 -03 -08 03 04 -41 -52 -14

Housing starts multiples thousands 1196 1168 1210 1445 1368 1222 984 1095

change 67 -23 36 194 -53 -107 -195 113

Housing completions total 49331 45168 39363 42186 50861 47683 39028 49362

change 110 -84 -129 72 206 -62 -182 265

New Housing Price Index 2007=100 1058 1064 1070 1078 1083 1088 1093 1097

change 05 06 05 07 05 05 04 04

Existing Housing

MLSreg

resales units thousands 461728 478420 476668 469992 442952 428676 427356 454500

change 48 36 -04 -14 -58 -32 -03 64

MLSreg

average resale price $ 360787 361291 366359 364745 360383 361526 368685 375139

change -17 01 14 -04 -12 03 20 18

Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate per cent 35 35 33 32 31 31 30 30

5-year mortgage rate per cent 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 51

Residential Investment

Total $2002 millions 107642 108652 112291 113212 112921 112608 111251 na

change 29 09 33 08 -03 -03 -12 na

New $2002 millions 46868 47420 50428 52188 53120 53196 51672 na

change 31 12 63 35 18 01 -29 na

Alterations $2002 millions 42360 42560 42812 42268 42532 42792 43044 na

change 15 05 06 -13 06 06 06 na

Transfer costs $2002 millions 18616 18860 19240 18980 17656 17076 16992 na

change 53 13 20 -14 -70 -33 -05 na

Deflator 2002=100 1098 1102 1110 1119 1121 1130 1127 na

change 06 04 08 08 02 08 -03 na

Sources CMHC Statistics Canada Bank of Canada Canadian Real Estate Association

na Data not available

Table 12 Major Housing Indicators

(levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator which

are only seasonally adjusted and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates which are not adjusted or annualized

Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing conversion costs cost of alterations and improvements

supplementary costs and transfer costs

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 32: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3233

3Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013

CMHCmdashHome to Canadians

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years

Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable

housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country

For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642

The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos

website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642

copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos

content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and

forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that

such use be discontinued for any reason

Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows

Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue

Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the

public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above

or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642

For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable

but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3

Page 33: Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

7272019 Housing Market Outlook 3rd Q 2013

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullhousing-market-outlook-3rd-q-2013 3333

CMHCrsquos Market Analysis Centree-reports provide a wealth of detailed local provincial regionaland national market information

Forecasts and Analysis ndash Future-oriented informationabout local regional andnational housing trends

Statistics and Data ndash Information on currenthousing market activities ndash starts rents vacancy ratesand much more

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

Canadian Housing Statistics

Housing Information Monthly

Housing Market Outlook Canada

Housing Market Outlook Highlight Reports ndash Canada and Regional

Housing Market Outlook Major Centres

Housing Market Tables Selected South Central Ontario Centres

Housing Now Canada

Housing Now Major Centres

Housing Now Regional

Monthly Housing Statistics

Northern Housing Outlook Report

Preliminary Housing Start Data

Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Rental Market Repor ts Major Centres

Rental Market Statistics

Residential Construction Digest Prairie Centres

Seniorsrsquo Housing Reports

Get the market intelligence you need today

Click wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation

to view download or subscribe

Housing marketintelligenceyou can count on

Download CMHCrsquos 2013 Mortgage Consumer Survey

Get a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recentmortgage consumers

Find out just how easy it is to leverage the sur vey fndings3_ Q 0 3