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2016HOUSING AFFORDABILITYA study for the Perth metropolitan North West sub-region area

Housing Affordability – A study for the metropolitan North West sub-region area2

1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................3

2. Executive Summary – North West sub-region .......................................................4

3. Defining Affordability ................................................................................................5

3.1 Household Income Category ...................................................................................................................5

3.2 Affordability .......................................................................................................................................................5

3.3 Sub-regions .......................................................................................................................................................6

3.4 Income groups .................................................................................................................................................7

3.5 Data sources ......................................................................................................................................................7

4. Analysis of results for established housing market ...............................................8

4.1 Private Sales by Planning Region ............................................................................................................8

4.2 Private Sales by Household Income Category .................................................................................8

4.3 Private Sales by Each Household Income Category (by Perth Planning Region) ...........9

4.4 Private Sales by Planning Region (by Household Income Category) ....................................10

4.5 Private Sales by Product Type ...................................................................................................................11

4.6 Housing Authority Sales ..............................................................................................................................13

5. Analysis of results for newly constructed housing ...............................................14

5.1 Lot Sales by Region ........................................................................................................................................14

5.2 Lot Sales by Household Income Category .........................................................................................15

5.3 Lot Sales by Household Income Category (by Region) ................................................................15

6. North West sub-region, Suburb analysis .................................................................16

6.1 Very low income ..........................................................................................................................................16

6.2 Low income ....................................................................................................................................................16

6.3 Moderate (lower) income .........................................................................................................................17

6.4 Moderate (Upper) income ........................................................................................................................18

6.5 High income ...................................................................................................................................................19

7. Concluding Remarks ...................................................................................................20

Contents

3Housing Affordability – A study for the metropolitan North West sub-region area

1. IntroductionAccess to affordable housing is essential for the wellbeing of individuals, families and communities. Very low to moderate income earners1 are most at risk of not being able to access affordable housing and own their own home. In this study, the Housing Authority shares its own internal research to shed a more detailed light on what is affordable to purchase in Perth’s housing market. This includes where stock is located, its characteristics and who can afford it. It seeks to answer key questions about the type of affordable housing within an area – is it affordable, is it appropriate and is it available?

The information in this report is being used by the Housing Authority to inform the delivery of its commitments under the State Affordable Housing Strategy 2010-20202 which has now been revised upwards to deliver 30,000 affordable housing opportunities by 2020 . The current focus on the Affordable Housing Strategy is consistent with the Housing Authority’s role in providing housing to meet the needs of the community and support the economic development of Western Australia through the sale of land, the building and sale of houses, the provision of housing finance, the supply of rental properties and continuing partnerships with the community and private sectors.

This publication complements the Housing Affordability report for the Perth Metropolitan Area. It focuses on the North West sub-region which encompasses the Perth Planning Regions: Joondalup (North); Joondalup (South); Wanneroo (North East); Wanneroo (North West); and Wanneroo (South).

1 See Section 3.1 for household income definitions.

2 Affordable Housing Strategy 2010-2020: Aiming Higher


2. Executive Summary – North West sub-regionThis report analyses house, unit and land sales in the North West sub-region of Perth from 2013 to 2015, looking at both established house and unit sales, and land sales for the construction of new houses. It looks at both private market sales and sales undertaken by the Housing Authority and its development partners. This report analyses sales by household income groups, and by Perth planning regions, as defined in Section 3.

Private housing sales in the North West sub-region are heavily skewed towards those that are affordable only to higher income households. Of the 18,083 sales in the North West sub-region, over half were only affordable to those on high incomes, while only 2% of sales were affordable to those on low incomes. In all Perth planning regions except Wanneroo North West, over half of all sales were affordable to those on high incomes. Wanneroo North West had the most equal distribution of sales across income groups, but still had only 3% affordable to those on low incomes.

The North West housing market is heavily weighted towards larger properties with over 95% of properties sold having three or more bedrooms. All planning regions had the vast majority of sales in the larger product type category. Joondalup North had the largest proportion of smaller properties, at 8%.

The Housing Authority provides a role in increasing the amount of affordable housing stock available for sales, which was reflected in its dwelling sales. There were 201 sales of houses and units by the Housing Authority and its development partners in the North West sub-region between 2013 and 2015. Around 41% of these sales were affordable to low income earners, while 42% were affordable to moderate (lower) income earners.

As with the established market, sales of lots are skewed towards those affordable to higher income groups. Only 5% of lot sales during the period analysed were affordable to those on low incomes. Housing Authority lot sales were more skewed towards the lower income groups with 19% affordable to low income households, and 39% for moderate (lower) income households.


3. Defining Affordability

3.1 Household Income CategoryIn this report, income categories are defined using proportions of the Perth median household income. This is the standard definition used by many affordable housing providers. For the Perth Metropolitan area, the definitions for December quarter 2015 are calculated below.3

Very low income (<50% of median) under $42,850

Low income (50-80% of median) $42,851–$68,560

Moderate income – lower (80-100% of median) $68,561–$85,700

Moderate income – upper (100-120% of median) $85,701–$102,840

High income (over 120% of median) Over $102,841

Estimated median income for Greater Perth $85,700

3.2 AffordabilityFor the purposes of this study, calculations have been undertaken to estimate an affordable established dwelling and land price for the Perth Metropolitan Area. These estimates are based on a number of assumptions which are outlined below. One of the main assumptions is the 30% rule. That is, for households to avoid housing stress, their mortgage repayments should not exceed 30% of their gross household income. Indicative affordability for the December quarter 2015 is shown below.4

Household Income Category

Gross Household

Income

Affordable loan amount Deposit Affordable

house price

Very low income $42,850 $187,000 $20,8005 $207,800

Low income $68,560 $299,200 $33,200 $332,400

Moderate income – lower $85,700 $374,000 $41,600 $415,600

Moderate income – upper $102,840 $448,800 $49,900 $498,700

High income Over $102,840 Over $448,800 Over $49,900 Over $498,700

Assumptions5 Interest rate: 5.58% (RBA, average standard variable rate, December quarter 2015) Deposit: 10% Term of loan: 30 years Percentage of income: 30%

3 Household income data is based on the median Perth income from the 2011 Census, adjusted using the ABS’ Wage Price Index for 2013, 2014 and 2015. For further information, see the Explanatory Notes publication.

4 These numbers are adjusted for 2013, 2014 and 2015. For further information, see the Explanatory Notes publication.

5 A deposit of this amount is likely to be difficult for a very low income household to achieve, however households may be able to access products such as Keystart low deposit home loans.


3.3 Sub-regionsThis report focuses on the North West sub-region which is shown below.


3.4 Income groupsThe 2011 Census is the most up-to-date data available on detailed income household groups within the community. Figure 1 shows the proportion of households in the Perth Metropolitan Area that fell into each of the income groups defined in Section 3.1. According to Figure 1, over 40% of households were in the very low to low income household categories at the time of the 2011 Census.

Figure 1

Perth Households by Income Category

36%

27%

16%

8%

13%

Very Low IncomeLow IncomeModerate income (lower)Moderate income (upper)High Income

Sources: PriceFinder, Housing Authority

3.5 Data sourcesThis report analyses property sales records for houses, units and land in the Central sub-region of the Perth Metropolitan Area from 2013-2015. The data has been extracted from the private sector product “APM PriceFinder”, which uses Landgate data, sourced through REIWA. For Housing Authority house, unit and land sales (2013-2015), admin-by-product data has been used. This is because the Housing Authority has thousands of transactions within the Landgate data, of which only a small number were actual sale transactions. For more information on data and methodology, see the accompanying publication Housing Affordability - Explanatory Notes.


4. Analysis of results for established housing market

4.1 Private Sales by Planning RegionThis section gives an overview of the private housing market in the North West sub-region. Figure 2 looks at the proportion of sales by each Perth Planning Region. The largest proportion of sales were in Joondalup South at 28% with the smallest in Wanneroo South at 13%.

Figure 2

Proportion of Sales by Perth

Planning Region

17%

28%

17%

25%

13%

Joondalup NorthJoondalup SouthWanneroo North EastWanneroo North WestWanneroo South


4.2 Private Sales by Household Income CategoryThis section gives an overview of the North West sub-region, looking at affordability by household income group. Figure 3 shows the proportion of private sales affordable to each of the household income categories. The analysis shows that over half of all sales in the North West sub-region were only affordable to households on high incomes. Only 2% of sales were affordable to those on low incomes.

Figure 3

Very Low IncomeLow IncomeModerate (Lower) IncomeModerate (Upper) IncomeHigh Income

Proportion of Sales by Income

13%

23%

62%

0% 2%



4.3 Private Sales by Each Household Income Category (by Perth Planning Region)

This section examines each household income category, and identifies where sales for each category were located. For very low income households, most affordable sales were in Joondalup South (38%) and Wanneroo North West (35%). For low income households Wanneroo North West (33%) and Wanneroo South (29%) had the highest proportion of sales affordable to this group. Joondalup South had the largest proportion of sales only affordable to higher income groups (38%).

Figure 4

Sources: PriceFinder, Housing AuthorityJoondalup N Joondalup S Wanneroo NE Wanneroo NW Wanneroo S

High Income

0

%

50

40

30

20

10

20

38

16 14 119

Joondalup N Joondalup NJoondalup S Joondalup SWanneroo NE Wanneroo NEWanneroo NW Wanneroo NWWanneroo S Wanneroo S

Moderate (Lower) Income Moderate (Upper) Income

0 0

% %

50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 1010 7

13

54

16 13 1322

36

179

Joondalup N Joondalup NJoondalup S Joondalup SWanneroo NE Wanneroo NEWanneroo NW Wanneroo NWWanneroo S Wanneroo S0 0

% %

50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

Very Low Income Low Income

8

39

0

35

1910

20

8

3329


4.4 Private Sales by Planning Region (by Household Income Category)

This section examines private sales by each Perth Planning Region within the North West sub-region. Of the sales in each Perth Planning Region, it looks at the proportion affordable to each household income category. All areas had a very small proportion of sales (less than 1%) affordable for those on very low incomes. In all areas except Wanneroo North West, over half of all sales were only affordable to those on high incomes; the highest proportion was in Joondalup South at 84%. Wanneroo North West had the most equal distribution of sales across income groups, with 27% affordable to moderate (lower) income households, 33% to moderate (upper) income households and 36% to high income households.

Figure 5

Very Low IncomeLow IncomeModerate (Lower) IncomeModerate (Upper) IncomeHigh Income

Joondalup North

Wanneroo South

Joondalup South

0% 0%1% 2%7%

15%

3%

17%

29%

11%

74%

51%

84%

0%5%

Wanneroo North East

Wanneroo North West

10%

27%

30%

33%

59%

36%

0% 0%1% 3%



4.5 Private Sales by Product TypeThis section analyses private sales in the North West sub-region, by product type. This is to take into account the ‘appropriateness’ aspect of housing affordability. For the purposes of this report, sales are broken into those that are two bedrooms or less – viewed as appropriate for singles, couples and small families and three bedrooms or more – viewed as appropriate for larger families and households.

Of the 18,083 sales in the North West sub-region, 95% had three bedrooms or more. This was the highest proportion of three bedrooms plus sales across all of the sub-regions.

All planning regions had the vast majority of sales in the larger product type category (Figure 6).

Figure 6

0


Regional Sales by Product Type

80

90

100%

60

50

70

40

30

20

10

86

Two bedrooms or less Three bedrooms or more

Joondalup N Joondalup S Wanneroo NE Wanneroo NW Wanneroo S

92 96 98 95 93

8 4 2 5 7


Figure 7


Product Type by Region

0

%

20

10

16

28

17

25

13

29

24

5

23

20


Joondalup N Joondalup S Wanneroo NE Wanneroo NW Wanneroo S

Three bedroom or more sales were fairly evenly distributed throughout the Perth Planning Regions (Figure 7). Two bedroom sales were more mixed – only 5% were in Wanneroo North East, while 29% were in Joondalup North.

This report also looks at the proportion of product sales affordable to each household income category (Figure 8). For the lower income categories, there is more available in the smaller product category. At the higher end of the income distribution, there were far more sales in the three bedroom or more category.

Figure 8

Very low Moderate (lwr) Moderate (upr)Low High

0


Product Type by Income

80

90

100%

60

50

70

40

30

20

10


54

3518

5 1

46

6582

95 99


4.6 Housing Authority SalesThis report analyses sales made by the Housing Authority and its development partners separately from private sales. This is because the Housing Authority has thousands of transactions within Landgate’s data, of which only a small number are reportable sales. To ensure accuracy, the Housing Authority’s own sales data was used throughout this report. Figure 9 shows that Housing Authority sales are more affordable to the lower end of the market compared to the private market. There were 201 Housing Authority sales of houses and units in the North West sub-region between 2013 and 2015.

Figure 9


0


Proportion of Sales by Income

80

90

100%

60

50

70

40

30

20

100 2

13

23

62

1 0

41 42

16

Housing Authority Sales Private Sales

Sales undertaken by the Housing Authority and its development partners have a very different distribution than sales in the private market. The private market is dominated by sales affordable only to high income households (62%), followed by moderate income (upper) households (23%). For the Housing Authority, sales are predominately affordable to moderate (lower) income households (42%), followed by low income households (41%).


5. Analysis of results for newly constructed housing

Consumers wishing to purchase a house have a choice between purchasing an established house or unit, or building a new home. The new home market is made up of land only or house and land package purchases. Both of these are generally reported through Landgate’s data as land purchases. In order to consider this market as part of the North West sub-region’s affordability options, this section looks at sales of land at different affordable land price points.

An affordable house and land price is calculated in Section 3. To separate the affordable land component, an expected proportion of land expenditure is derived using UDIA and ABS data6. For the very low income category, land affordability is manually set. This is because the minimum build price for a basic home in WA is estimated at around $150,000. When the affordable land price defined below is combined with the assumed price of building a dwelling, the affordablity price points (for land and build) are the same as for the established price points defined in Section 3.

Household income category Affordable land purchase category 2015

Assumed cost of building dwelling

Total house and land cost

Very Low Income Household $57,800 $150,000 $207,800

Low Income Household Up to $175,500 $156,900 $332,400

Moderate Income Household (lower) Up to $219,400 $196,200 $415,600

Moderate Income Household (upper) Up to $263,300 $235,400 $498,700

High Income Household Over $263,300 Over $235,400 Over $498,700

5.1 Lot Sales by RegionThere were 4416 sales in the North West region during 2013-2015. Within the North West sub-region, lot sales were heavily weighted towards Wanneroo North West, where over 60% of sales were located. Suburbs with high numbers of lot sales included: Alkimos (942 lot sales); Yanchep (501); Eglinton (356) and Jindalee (234). The lowest proportion of lot sales were in Joondalup South (6%).

Figure 10

Lot Sales in the North East region

9%13%

6%

10%

62%

Joondalup NorthJoondalup SouthWanneroo North EastWanneroo North WestWanneroo South

6 See publication: Housing Affordability – Explanatory Notes



5.2 Lot Sales by Household Income CategoryThis section looks at lot sales, both in the private market and by the Housing Authority and its development partners, showing what proportion were affordable to each household income category. Almost 60% of lot sales in the private market in the North West sub-region were only affordable to high income households, with only 5% affordable to low income households. Housing Authority lot sales were more affordable to lower income groups, with 19% affordable to low incomes households. There were no lot sales affordable to very low income households.

Figure 11

Private Lot Sales Housing Authority Lot Sales


0


Proportion of Lot Sales by Income

80

90

100%

60

50

70

40

30

20

100

5

18 19

58

0

19

39

27

15

5.3 Lot Sales by Household Income Category (by Region) Of the 4416 sales in the North West region, only 1855 were affordable to those on less than a high income. Suburbs with high numbers of sales affordable to those on less than a high income included: Alkimos (594 lots sold); Yanchep (343); Eglinton (282); Two Rocks (178) and Butler (104).


6. North West sub-region, Suburb analysis7

This section looks at each household income category, as defined in Section 3, and shows the top 10 suburbs with sales affordable to the income group. This sections looks only at sales in the private market for houses and units.

6.1 Very low income Only 0.1% of North West sub-region sales were affordable to very low income households.

Less than two bedrooms

Locality Distance from CBD

No. sales 2013-15

Median price

Median Build age

Median Bedrooms

Median building area

Median land area

Sorrento 20.9Km 10 151,000 1988 1 29 29

However, for Sorrento, all these sales are either retirement villages or short-stay accommodation.

Three bedrooms plus

No suburbs with more than 10 sales recorded.

6.2 Low income 2.2% of North West sub-region sales were affordable to low income households.



No. sales 2013-15

Median price

Median Build age

Median Bedrooms


Median land area

Kingsley 20.7Km 20 312,500 1984 2 76 76

Butler 39.8Km 18 299,900 2013 2 94 165

Joondalup 27.9Km 16 315,000 2003 1 80 80

Kallaroo 24.9Km 15 285,000 1996 2 95 94

Sorrento 17.0Km 11 250,000 1988 2 46 46

Girrawheen 15.7Km 10 306,500 1973 2 472 685

All sales in Kingsley, Kallaroo and Sorrento were for retirement villages or short-stay (holiday) accommodation, so were not genuinely affordable. Sales in Butler were for newer-style micro-houses and villas, while sales in Joondalup were for one bedroom units in low-rise (three storey) complexes.

7 Only suburbs with 10 or more sales recorded between 2013 and 2015 are included.


Three bedrooms plus


No. sales 2013-15

Median price

Median Build age

Median Bedrooms


Median land area

Girrawheen 15.7Km 67 310,000 1973 3 338 338

Merriwa 38.5Km 23 315,000 1993 3 123 591

Yanchep 60.6Km 16 281,000 1990 3 165 345

Clarkson 37.4Km 15 307,000 1993 3 103 602

Marangaroo 17.0Km 14 289,920 1987 3 155 523

Two Rocks 67.7Km 14 304,000 1989 3 361 810

Wanneroo 25.0Km 14 300,000 1974 3 81 624

Quinns Rocks 38.7Km 12 275,000 1989 4 241 607

Koondoola 14.9Km 11 310,000 1977 3 244 258

Girrawheen, Wanneroo and Koondoola had sales of older-style houses, duplexes and villas. Merriwa, Clarkson, Two Rocks and Quinns Rocks had sales of newer-style houses and villas. A number of sales in Yancep and Marangaroo were for retirement villages.

6.3 Moderate (lower) income Only 12.6% of North West sub-region sales were affordable to moderate income (lower) households.



No. sales 2013-15

Median price

Median Build age

Median Bedrooms


Median land area

Joondalup 27.9Km 109 370,000 2005 2 107 107

Girrawheen 15.7Km 71 380,000 1973 2 n.p 693

Butler 39.8Km 38 345,000 2010 2 177 188

Clarkson 37.4Km 33 354,000 2008 2 112 140

Currambine 30.3Km 26 375,000 2007 2 133 133

Woodvale 25.8Km 24 373,500 1996 2 135 140

Koondoola 14.9Km 19 387,500 1976 2 n.p 692

Yanchep 60.6Km 16 360,500 2012 2 237 244

Kingsley 20.7Km 10 330,000 1985 2 76 76

Joondalup, Butler, Clarkson, Currambine, Woodvale and Yanchep, all had sales for newer-style units on small blocks. Girrawheen and Koondoola had sales of older-style properties (median build age of 1973 and 1976 respectively) and larger blocks (median and area of 693 and 692 metres squared).


Three bedrooms plus


No. sales 2013-15

Median price

Median Build age

Median Bedrooms


Median land area

Clarkson 37.4Km 275 375,000 1994 3 125 591

Merriwa 38.5Km 253 370,000 1995 4 131 568

Butler 39.8Km 195 385,000 2010 3 134 300

Girrawheen 15.7Km 143 363,000 1975 3 247 688

Banksia Grove 35.7Km 141 383,000 2006 3 121 453

Yanchep 60.6Km 133 380,000 2008 3 151 462

Quinns Rocks 38.7Km 95 382,500 1996 3 122 544

Wanneroo 25.0Km 95 377,000 1976 3 84 667

Ridgewood 38.1Km 83 385,000 2009 3 141 360

Two Rocks 67.7Km 66 370,000 1984 3 128 815

Clarkson, Merriwa, Butler, Banksia Grove, Yanchep, Quinns Rocks and Ridgewood, all had sales of three bedroom or more properties, in younger-stye properties (with a median build age ranging from Clarkson (1994) to Butler (2010)). Sales of older-style properties were seen in Girrawheen (median build age of 1975) and Wanneroo (median build age of 1976).

6.4 Moderate (Upper) income 23.1% of North West sub-region sales were affordable to moderate income (upper) households.



No. sales 2013-15

Median price

Median Build age

Median Bedrooms


Median land area

Joondalup 27.9Km 51 425,000 2005 2 139 139

Girrawheen 15.7Km 45 433,000 1973 2 n.p 693

Koondoola 14.9Km 18 435,000 1976 2 n.p 730

Woodvale 25.8Km 14 432,500 1995 2 169 169

Joondalup had sales of newer-style micro product (median building area of only 139 square metres). Girrawheen and Koondoola had sales for older-style product (median build age of 1973 and 1976 respectively). The sales in Woodvale were not genuinely affordable, most related to a retirement village.


Three bedrooms plus


No. sales 2013-15

Median price

Median Build age

Median Bedrooms


Median land area

Clarkson 37.4Km 442 440,000 2007 4 161 480

Butler 39.8Km 369 440,000 2005 4 164 510

Wanneroo 25.0Km 310 450,000 1978 3 130 685

Marangaroo 17.0Km 224 450,000 1991 3 126 680

Banksia Grove 35.7Km 171 440,000 2010 4 167 487

Heathridge 26.6Km 168 455,000 1983 3 104 692

Quinns Rocks 38.7Km 162 444,750 1996 4 144 603

Yanchep 60.6Km 151 440,000 2009 4 173 504

Ridgewood 38.1Km 150 445,000 2007 4 168 576

Girrawheen 15.7Km 143 435,000 1976 3 120 693

For sales of three of more bedrooms, Wanneroo and Girrawheen had older-style product (with a median build age of 1978 and 1976 respectively). Clarkson, Butler, Marangaroo and Banksia Grove, all had sales for younger-style product (with a median build age ranging from 1991 (Marangaroo) to 2007 (Clarkson)).

6.5 High income 62.0% of North West Sub-region sales (2013-2015) were only affordable to high income households. In the suburbs of Burns Beach and Iluka, no sales were affordable to households earning less than a high income.

Suburb Number of sales 2013-2015

Proportion of sales only affordable to high

income households

Burns Beach 155 100.0

Iluka 264 100.0

Hillarys 583 97.9

Duncraig 672 97.9

Mindarie 444 97.5

Jindalee 105 95.2

Darch 272 95.2

Mullaloo 300 95.0


7. Concluding RemarksThis report highlights the challenges for low to moderate income earners in the North West sub-region. Only 2% of sales in the sub-region were affordable to low income households, and almost no sales were affordable to very low income households. The lack of diversity in the region was also highlighted, with over 95% of sales having three or more bedrooms.

Sales undertaken by the Housing Authority and its development partners were more affordable to lower income households, and the findings of this report will help inform the Housing Authority’s future house and land sales programs.

This report complements the Housing Affordability report for the Perth Metropolitan Area, and the other Housing Affordability reports for each of the Perth sub-regions.

October 2016

housing 2016 affordability - reiwa.com...housing affordability – a study for the metroolitan north...

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