household air pollution in india: where are we...
TRANSCRIPT
Household Air Pollution in India: Where are we going?
Kirk R. Smith, MPH, PhD Professor of Global Environmental Health
University of California, Berkeley
Visiting Faculty Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
India Clean Cooking Forum
GIZ/MNRE, October 6, 2015
Three major estimates of the direct premature mortality from not
using LPG (or similar clean fuel)
• Global – GBD–2010: 3.6 million – WHO-2012: 4.3 million – GBD-2013: 2.9 million
• India – GBD-2010: 1 million – WHO-2012: 1.2 million – GBD-2013: 0.9 million
Chafe, et al., 2014
Percent of primary ambient PM2.5 from household cooking fuels – population weighted
~25% in India
Percent of outdoor air pollution mortality from household fuels
• Varies by model and databases used • For example, 25-50 percent in India • 14-30% globally • Adds another 0.5-1.0 million deaths to the
direct impacts of “not having LPG” • Total for HAP: greater than 4 million
annually worldwide
First person in human history to have her exposure measured doing the oldest task in human history
Kheda District Gujarat, 1981
1990: 85%: 700 million people using solid fuels 2010: 60%: 700 million people ~1980 700 million people in entire country
700 million people in the Chulha Trap
Increasing Prosperity and Development
Dec
reas
ing
Hou
seho
ld A
ir Po
llutio
n
Very Low Income
200 million
Low Income 400 million
Middle Income 400 million
High Income 200 million
Crop Waste Dung
Coal
Kerosene
Natural Gas
Electricity
Non-solid fuels
Solid Fuels
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
Biogas/solar
Wood
Conceptual Indian Energy Ladder
How do we help people move into
this realm?
Smith/Pillarisetti, 2014
Increasing Prosperity and Development
Dec
reas
ing
Hou
seho
ld A
ir Po
llutio
n
Very Low Income
200 million
Low Income 400 million
Middle Income 400 million
High Income 200 million
Crop Waste Dung
Coal
Kerosene
Natural Gas
Electricity
Non-solid fuels
Solid Fuels
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
Biogas/solar
Wood
Conceptual Indian Energy Ladder
India already spends ~40,000 crore (6 billion USD) to promote clean cooking
• LPG subsidies per year • Seen as a political and economic burden • But can be considered a major asset to
promote clean fuels even further among the poor
• To do so, however, requires – Eliminating leakage to non-household sector – Target to poor – take away from rich
This being done now
• Stage I: began Jan 1 this year – Direct Bank Transfer: largest in human history – All LPG now sold at market rate. – LPG sales rapidly rising in commercial sector
• Stage II: began April this year – “Give it up” campaign – 3.5 million households have done so already,
rising at 30k per day – Provide to BPL families with stove and first
cylinder
LPG expansion, cont. • Phase III: Next year?
– Change from opt out to opt in system – Expect to go from 70+% of rich claiming
subsidy – To less than 30%
• Total impact of all phases: – 90%+ reduction in leakage – Movement of >20,000 crore from rich to poor
(3 billion USD)
India: What happened? Millions
In 30 years, “improved” biomass stoves had no impact on health. At the same time more than 400 million Indians took up clean fuels, mainly LPG
Of course • Just providing affordable access to LPG or
other fuel does not mean people instantly switch
• However, since 60% of world uses gas and/or electricity it argues strongly that the rest eventually will.
• Is clearly what is needed in long term – why not sooner rather than later?
Subsidy or ?
• Health sector does not refer to programs to vaccinate or provide maternal care to the poor as “subsidies” but rather
• Social investments • In order for public support of clean fuels to be
termed social investments, they need to be far better targeted than in the past.
• Modern IT technology provides ways to do so
New Directions • Work to help target subsidies
– Embrace modern IT to do so • Work with others to explore entirely
different distribution modes – Including at the community level
• Develop marketing for enhancing use after adoption – Shorten “stacking” period
New Directions, cont.
• Consider partnering with health sector to firmly establish LPG and electricity as direct health investments – In parallel to vaccines, antibiotics, etc. – Large up front costs, but – Very large potential market – A major health benefit to the very poorest
Bottom Lines • New estimates of health effects will
continue – But household air pollution will remain one of
the biggest risks in India • Estimates will continue to be made, but
– household sources will remain a large source of outdoor air pollution in India
• In both case, unless strong action is taken to counter current trends
Please
• Do not let “clean” become the new “improved”
• That is, a way to hide information • We know now what clean means – the
WHO has provided us with guidelines that make it clear
• There is little room for ambiguity anymore • Keep “clean” to describe what is truly clean
My appeal: cleanse your mind. • Focus on the problem and not on
preconceived solutions – Household sales – Local energy supplies – Climate neutral/renewable – Eliminate subsidy – Villagers are different from us
• Focus on improving the health of our fellow citizens who are not able to do so entirely on their own
For solid fuel users, expect varying rates of adoption of clean fuels across society ...
To ensure ‘best possible’ • Testing • Standards • Certification
WHO, 2014