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1.1 1.2 1.3

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2.1

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2008 I, 2009 II,

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2009 IV,

2009 I, 2010 II, 2010

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30,8

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217,1

220,6

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219,9

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% 2.31% 3.33% 8.01% 8.27% 8.26% 8.37% 8.51% 8.59% 8.46% 8.34%

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6

8

10

13

14

13

13

14

14

15

4,774

8,984

16,444

16,590

16,251

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16,647

16,628

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, % 14.7% 17.8% 16.0% 18.7% 18.5% 16.8% 15.5% 17.2% 17.9% 17.2%

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11

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2010 7780 , . ()- .

0

500

1000

1500

2000

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, . . 89.4 , 10.2 0.4 .

12

. .

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14

II .

2.1

, 2009-2010 , cross section .

William J.Stull (1974)- , . .

=P(X ) 1. . 1 . - 1

. 2 1850$, 3 539.5$ 80 1. - 960.6$ .

2. CS . (.-) . . 2009-2010 27.9 2, 188.0 2, 74.37 2

3. CT . . :

1 1 . - 2010 11 14 USD=1279.07MNT . 2 The One Residence 108 . ( , ) 3 , 17- , IPW -

15

a) CTA . .

b) CTD . .

c) CTG , . , . , , 1

, , 0

d) CTU . 4 3 .

3 0

4 1

e) CTCH . ( . , , .) . .

( ) 1 ( ) 0

f) CTR . ( ) , www.barilga.mn . , , . .

http://www.barilga.mn/

16

() 1

0

4. D , . 6 ({i -, , , , }) 4 . :

HUD (- ) BGD ( ) CHD ( )

1 0 1 0 1 0 SBD (

) SHD (

) BZD ( )

1 0 1 0 1 0

5. CQ . . :

a) CQM . () . 1:25000 Google Earth . , ( ), 1:25000 250- .

b) CQB , . , 300 1, 300 0 . 1:25000 Google Earth .

, 1

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4 llen (1997)- )

17

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1

6. CG .

. :

a) CGD , . , , 200 ) 1:25000 Google Earth .

, 0

, 1

b) CGO . , , .

1

0

c) CGA .

, 1000 ,

18

. . 1:25000 Google Earth .

() 0

() 1

d) CGS .

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1 0

7. MG . . , , , Dougherty Van Order 1982 .

1 0

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19

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. Eviews 5.1 .

2009-2010 .

- 960,6 952,9

CT , , 1

CTG 1007,5 996

, 0 900,3 897,5 3 0

CTU 887,1 890,2

4 1 1104,9 1076,1 ( ) 1

1086,0 1067,1

( ) 0 893,1 891,4 () 1

1048,2 1037,1

0 847,5 844,7 D

BZD 898 907,4 - HUD 1088,4 1093,4 SBD 1047,2 967 SHD 776 833,6 CHD 1215,4 1129,7 BGD 890,6 884

CQ , 1

983 966,4

, 0 940,4 940,7 0 972,9 964,6

20

1 930,2 948,1 CG

, 0

982,9 959,9 , 1 951,1 936,5 1

1069,6 1041,8

0 887,9 893,6 0

1037,3 1027,7

1 851,3 846,4 1

CGS 1135 1106

0 906,3 905,2 MG

1

924,1 919,9 0 1036,4 1021,4

2009-2010 960,6$ 3 2006-2007 5 493.9$ - 1,9 94,5 . CT .

- , 46.9 , // 900.3 60.3 .

- ( 3 ) 73.5 4 1105 144.3 . , .

- , . 1086 125.4 .

5 2004, 2005 1. 300$- 450 $ .

21

- 87.6 113.1 , .

D . - -,

. (62.6 ), (184.6 ), (184.6 ) .

CQ .

- , 1 2- 20.2 , , 300 22.4 .

- , , . 30.4 , 972,9 12,3 . .

CG . - 200

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22

109 1069,6 . 72,7 887,9 .

- 6 1037 76,7 .

- , ( ), (), , 906,3 54,3 . 174,4 .

MG .

- cross section . 36,5 924,1 75,8 .

, , , .

.

2009-2010 , .

-

1 2 3 Coefficient t-Statistic Coefficient t-Statistic Coefficient t-Statistic

C 6.77528 270.2561 6.882558 151.3669 6.820021 245.8531

CS

6 1000 , ,

23

1. . (CT) a. CTA b. CTD c. , CTG d. CTU 0.162366 4.154588

e. . CTCH 0.095007 2.18732 f. CTR

2. . (D) a. - HUD 0.198719 3.750554 b. BGD c. CHD 0.301913 3.566788 0.156131 2.186848

d. SBD 0.1444 2.103217 e. SHD f. BZD

3. . (CQ) a. CQM b. , CQB c. . CQN

4. . (CG) a. , CGD b. CGO 0.097207 2.339183 c. CGA

-0.13922 -3.46272 -0.14584 -4.06105

d. CGS 0.090236 2.024299

5. (MG) ON -0.07479 -1.8381 Akaike info criterion (AIC), Schwarz criterion SC) AIC=-0.53, SC=-0.41 AIC=-0.69, SC=-0.54 AIC=-0.89, SC=-0.737 Durbin-Watson stat (DW), Adjusted R-square ( ) DW=2.162, =0.217 DW=2.049, =0.34 DW=2.126, =0.456

-

4 5 6 Coefficient t-Statistic Coefficient t-Statistic Coefficient t-Statistic

C 6.4126 84.04857 6.437426 92.45816 6.462542 86.64515

CS 0.004134 8.165211 0.003969 7.932258 0.003806 7.355702

1. . (CT) a. CTA b. CTD 0.015945 3.069403 0.015146 3.039850 0.013899 2.75291

c. , CTG d. CTU e. . CTCH f. CTR

0.066641 2.018464 0.067362 2.03384

2. . (D)

24

a. - HUD b. BGD c. CHD d. SBD e. SHD 0.126175 -1.8312 f. BZD

3. . (CQ) a. CQM

b. , CQB

c. . CQN

4. . (CG) a. , CGD

b. CGO c. CGA

-0.08509 -2.58964 -0.05571 -1.70726

d. CGS

5. (MG) -0.10476 -3.38019 -0.09975 -0.0813

ON Akaike info criterion (AIC), Schwarz criterion (SC) AIC=-1.14, SC=-1.02 AIC=-1.22, SC=-1.04 AIC=-1.22, SC=-1.04 Durbin-Watson stat (DW), Adjusted R-square ( ) DW=2.01, =0.574 DW=1.98, =0.616 DW=1.99, =0.614

, , , (AIC ) 6 .

:

Dependent Variable: LOG( ) Method: Least Squares Date: 03/14/11 Time: 11:35 Sample: 1 80 Included observations: 80 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C ( ) 6.462542 0.074586 86.64515 0.0000 CTD ( ) 0.013899 0.005049 2.752910 0.0074 CS ( ) 0.003806 0.000517 7.355702 0.0000 CTR ( ) 0.067362 0.033121 2.033840 0.0456 MG ( ) -0.081298 0.031140 -2.610724 0.0109 CGA ( ) -0.055706 0.032629 -1.707263 0.0920 R-squared 0.638532 Mean dependent var 6.845850 Adjusted R-squared 0.614109 S.D. dependent var 0.204392 S.E. of regression 0.126969 Akaike info criterion -1.217711 Sum squared resid 1.192961 Schwarz criterion -1.039059 Log likelihood 54.70845 F-statistic 26.14417

25

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Residual Actual Fitted

Durbin-Watson stat 1.994926 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 LOG(UNE) = 6.462542008 + 0.01389874674*CTD + 0.003805943339*CS + 0.06736212887*CTR - 0.08129824002*MG - 0.05570594609*CGA ,

, :

CTR MG CGA ?

Redundant Variables: CTR MG CGA F-statistic 5.794479 Probability 0.001296 Log likelihood ratio 16.87993 Probability 0.000748

Test Equation: Dependent Variable: LOG(UNE) Method: Least Squares Date: 03/18/11 Time: 15:39 Sample: 1 80 Included observations: 80

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 6.315816 0.068937 91.61775 0.0000

CTD 0.018600 0.005278 3.523874 0.0007 CS 0.004604 0.000490 9.395574 0.0000

R-squared 0.553619 Mean dependent var 6.845850 Adjusted R-squared 0.542025 S.D. dependent var 0.204392 S.E. of regression 0.138320 Akaike info criterion -1.081712 Sum squared resid 1.473201 Schwarz criterion -0.992386 Log likelihood 46.26848 F-statistic 47.74924 Durbin-Watson stat 1.897274 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

26 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-0 .250 -0 .125 0 .000 0 .125 0.250 0 .375

Series: ResidualsSample 1 80Observations 80

Mean 2.47E-16Median -0.010471Maximum 0.453536Minimum -0.267047Std. Dev. 0.122885Skewness 0.475492Kurtosis 4.445088

Jarque-Bera 9.975508Probability 0.006821

(CTR), (MG) (CGA) .

(CTA), , (CTG), , (200 , , , ) (CGD) (CTCH) ( )?

Redundant Variables: CTA CTG CGD CTCH F-statistic 0.637496 Probability 0.637477 Log likelihood ratio 2.862442 Probability 0.581103

Test Equation: Dependent Variable: LOG(UNE) Method: Least Squares Date: 03/18/11 Time: 15:50 Sample: 1 80 Included observations: 80


CTD 0.013899 0.005049 2.752910 0.0074 CS 0.003806 0.000517 7.355702 0.0000

CTR 0.067362 0.033121 2.033840 0.0456 MG -0.081298 0.031140 -2.610724 0.0109

CGA -0.055706 0.032629 -1.707263 0.0920 R-squared 0.638532 Mean dependent var 6.845850 Adjusted R-squared 0.614109 S.D. dependent var 0.204392 S.E. of regression 0.126969 Akaike info criterion -1.217711 Sum squared resid 1.192961 Schwarz criterion -1.039059 Log likelihood 54.70845 F-statistic 26.14417 Durbin-Watson stat 1.994926 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

, , , , (200 , , , ) ( ) .

:

JB :

Jarque-Bera

27

.

Heteroskedasticity White Heteroskedasticity ( White Heteroskedasticity/ cross terms- )

White Heteroskedasticity Test: F-statistic 1.639985 Probability 0.080915 Obs*R-squared 24.81515 Probability 0.098924

Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 03/18/11 Time: 16:15 Sample: 1 80 Included observations: 80


CTD -0.003660 0.007421 -0.493128 0.6237 CTD^2 -6.48E-05 0.000332 -0.195176 0.8459

CTD*CS 9.26E-05 4.82E-05 1.922573 0.0591 CTD*CTR 0.002400 0.002766 0.867800 0.3889 CTD*MG -0.003854 0.002775 -1.388990 0.1698

CTD*CGA 0.001837 0.002658 0.691075 0.4921 CS -0.000378 0.000766 -0.493555 0.6234

CS^2 -2.30E-06 3.01E-06 -0.764931 0.4472 CS*CTR 0.000301 0.000387 0.775696 0.4409 CS*MG -0.000344 0.000271 -1.272497 0.2079

CS*CGA -0.000132 0.000358 -0.369660 0.7129 CTR -0.021841 0.045354 -0.481573 0.6318

CTR*MG -0.026728 0.020464 -1.306104 0.1963 CTR*CGA 0.004084 0.018434 0.221519 0.8254

MG 0.065597 0.041595 1.577026 0.1199 MG*CGA -0.025252 0.021745 -1.161278 0.2500

CGA 0.004247 0.037325 0.113796 0.9098 R-squared 0.310189 Mean dependent var 0.014912 Adjusted R-squared 0.121048 S.D. dependent var 0.027853 S.E. of regression 0.026113 Akaike info criterion -4.257688 Sum squared resid 0.042276 Schwarz criterion -3.721732 Log likelihood 188.3075 F-statistic 1.639985 Durbin-Watson stat 2.208011 Prob(F-statistic) 0.080915

*-10%- Heteroskedasticity (H1)- . , Heteroskedasticity H0 .

:

cross section , time series (serial correlation )- . time series- cross section- i- .

28

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Recursive Residuals 2 S.E.

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

CUSUM 5% Significance

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

CUSUM of Squares 5% Significance

Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob .*| . | .*| . | 1 -0.096 -0.096 0.7713 0.380 . |*. | . |*. | 2 0.121 0.113 2.0077 0.366 .*| . | .*| . | 3 -0.123 -0.104 3.3025 0.347 .*| . | .*| . | 4 -0.094 -0.130 4.0605 0.398 .*| . | .*| . | 5 -0.075 -0.071 4.5494 0.473 .*| . | .*| . | 6 -0.113 -0.120 5.6776 0.460 . |** | . |** | 7 0.220 0.201 10.046 0.186 . |*. | . |*. | 8 0.090 0.137 10.777 0.215 . |*. | . |*. | 9 0.156 0.101 13.034 0.161 .*| . | . | . | 10 -0.065 -0.055 13.430 0.201 .*| . | .*| . | 11 -0.115 -0.132 14.697 0.197 .*| . | .*| . | 12 -0.109 -0.070 15.845 0.198 .*| . | . | . | 13 -0.081 0.003 16.494 0.223 .*| . | .*| . | 14 -0.077 -0.102 17.085 0.252 . |*. | . | . | 15 0.096 0.033 18.014 0.262 . | . | .*| . | 16 -0.029 -0.127 18.100 0.318 . |*. | . | . | 17 0.101 0.006 19.157 0.320 . | . | . |*. | 18 0.018 0.081 19.190 0.380 .*| . | . | . | 19 -0.076 -0.031 19.811 0.406 . | . | . |*. | 20 0.029 0.077 19.901 0.464 .*| . | . | . | 21 -0.089 -0.003 20.784 0.472 . | . | .*| . | 22 0.005 -0.063 20.787 0.534 . | . | . | . | 23 0.006 0.053 20.791 0.594 . | . | .*| . | 24 -0.032 -0.096 20.912 0.644 . |*. | . | . | 25 0.102 0.053 22.147 0.627 . | . | . | . | 26 -0.019 0.009 22.192 0.678 . |*. | . | . | 27 0.126 0.065 24.164 0.621 .*| . | . | . | 28 -0.088 -0.033 25.133 0.621 .*| . | .*| . | 29 -0.087 -0.134 26.114 0.619 .*| . | .*| . | 30 -0.116 -0.152 27.879 0.577 .*| . | . | . | 31 -0.077 -0.018 28.672 0.586 . |*. | . |*. | 32 0.085 0.071 29.670 0.585 . | . | . | . | 33 -0.029 -0.002 29.787 0.628 . | . | **| . | 34 -0.051 -0.222 30.161 0.656 . | . | .*| . | 35 0.029 -0.094 30.285 0.695 .*| . | . | . | 36 -0.067 -0.030 30.962 0.707

.

:

Recursive CUSUM

CUSUM

29

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Recursive C(1) Estimates 2 S.E.

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80


-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80


-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80


0.000

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80


-0.02

-0.01

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80


Recursive :

.

Breusch-Godfrey - LM

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic 3.335482 Probability 0.041176 Obs*R-squared 6.783661 Probability 0.033647 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 03/18/11 Time: 16:28


CTD -0.000138 0.004902 -0.028246 0.9775 CS -0.000137 0.000516 -0.266378 0.7907

CTR 0.010402 0.032419 0.320859 0.7492 MG -0.010137 0.030456 -0.332836 0.7402

CGA 0.004704 0.031875 0.147564 0.8831 RESID(-1) -0.005751 0.116156 -0.049511 0.9606 RESID(-2) -0.297993 0.115375 -2.582816 0.0118

R-squared 0.084796 Mean dependent var 2.46E-16 Adjusted R-squared -0.004182 S.D. dependent var 0.122885 S.E. of regression 0.123142 Akaike info criterion -1.256319 Sum squared resid 1.091803 Schwarz criterion -1.018117 Log likelihood 58.25277 F-statistic 0.952995 Durbin-Watson stat 2.085064 Prob(F-statistic) 0.471962

30

(BLUE) . , . ( 6) . :

(Jarque Bera ), Hteroskedasticity (White Hteroskedasticity ) ( ) . CUSUM , CUSUM , Recursive Recursive . .

. :

- 7 ( ) ( ) . , 1. - . ( 1 , , .), . A B 1 .- A B 2.71828^0.003806=1.003813 0.38 .

- . A B A B 2.71828^0.013899=1.014 1.4

7 . : 3 1 30 ., 2 44 . 3 66 . 47 . .

31

. . . A 8 1 . - 1000 . 10 B 1028.2 2.8 .

- . . , , . . 1.0697 6,97

- ( ) () 1,1049 10,49 . ( ) . ( ) , .

- , (1000 ) 1.0573 5.73 .

. :

1. (CS) 2. (CTR)

32

3. (MG) 4. (CTD) 5. (CGA)

( ) 640.685$ .

=

- - . :

- 2010 4- , 11- , 140 12 . 1. - 1200$ 2-4 70-140 2 . , ( , ) .

1. CS=105 . 2. CTR=1 3. MG =0 4. CTD =12 5. CGA=0

. :

= = =1207.5$

- 1 . - 1200$ 1207,5$ . 7.5 . (2010 ) .

33

2.2

1 . - . 2003-2010

, 8:

1 . - Descriptive Statistics -

Descriptive Statistics for UNE Categorized by values of UNE Date: 03/20/11 Time: 22:33 Sample: 2003 2010 Included observations: 8

UNE Mean Median Max Min. Sum. Std. Dev. Skewness Obs. [200, 400) 385.0000 385.0000 385.0000 385.0000 385.0000 NA NA 1 [400, 600) 456.6667 470.0000 500.0000 400.0000 1370.000 51.31601 -0.363430 3 [600, 800) 719.0000 719.0000 719.0000 719.0000 719.0000 NA NA 1 [800, 1000) 924.8667 944.0000 960.6000 870.0000 2774.600 48.23540 -0.501379 3

All 656.0750 609.5000 960.6000 385.0000 5248.600 245.9382 0.145905 8

2003 1 .- 385 . 2010 960.6 . 7 2.49 . 2003-2006 2006 2009 .

Descriptive Statistics - 1 .- 656.07 . (std.dev=245.9) .

8 2003-2007 - - . 2008-2009 - 2010 80

34

JB . Unit root ADF Test -0.763180 level log . .

UNE (.)

B1 (.) 0.96

B2 (.) 0.77

B3 () 0.28

B4 (.) -0.50

B5 ( 2) (.) -0.39

B6 (..) 0.82

B7 - () 0.91

B8 (.) 0.97

B9 (.) 0.85

B10 () 0.53

B11 (.) 0.98

B12 (.) 0.99

B13 . 0.79

B14 () -0.90

B15 (.) 0.99

B16 (.) 0.55

B17 ( ) 0.60

B18 (.) -0.01

35

1 8 0

2 0 0

2 2 0

2 4 0

2 6 0

2 8 0

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

B 1

2 0 0 0

4 0 0 0

6 0 0 0

8 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0

1 2 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0

1 8 0 0 0

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

B 2

0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

B 3

0 . 8

1 . 0

1 . 2

1 . 4

1 . 6

1 . 8

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

B 4

0 . 8

1 . 0

1 . 2

1 . 4

1 . 6

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

B 5

2 5 0

3 0 0

3 5 0

4 0 0

4 5 0

5 0 0

5 5 0

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

B 6

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

B 7

5 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

B 8

5 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

3 0 0 0

3 5 0 0

4 0 0 0

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

B 9

2 4

2 6

2 8

3 0

3 2

3 4

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

B 1 0

5 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

B 1 1

0

5 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

3 0 0 0

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

B 1 2

1 1 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 3 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 5 0 0

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

B 1 3

1 8

2 0

2 2

2 4

2 6

2 8

3 0

3 2

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

B 1 4

5 0

1 0 0

1 5 0

2 0 0

2 5 0

3 0 0

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

B 1 5

0 . 9

1 . 0

1 . 1

1 . 2

1 . 3

1 . 4

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

B 1 6

1 . 0

1 . 1

1 . 2

1 . 3

1 . 4

1 . 5

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

B 1 7

2 8

3 0

3 2

3 4

3 6

3 8

4 0

0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9

B 1 8

maltiple line graphs (2003-2009 )

.

10 .

1- 2- 3- 4- 5- C -696.03 0.02 118.42 0.06 279.26 0.00 -932.99 0.04 341.11 0.00

B1 5.39 0.00 B2 0.02 0.07 B3

0.01 B4 B5 B6

0.06 B7 5.73 0.02 6.89 0.02 4.75 0.00 B8 0.48 0.00 B9

B10 B11 0.08 0.08

36

B12

0.00 B13 1.71 0.03 B14 B15 B16 B17 B18 -27.23 0.09

R 0.984199 0.973673 0.997505 0.991559 0.997685 DW 1.721154 2.908328 2.877456 2.751136 2.483663 AIC 10.26941 10.77993 7.926363 10.06158 8.434772 : B1- B18 , R , DW , AIC lag1 . 6- 7- 8- 9- 10- C 230.16 0.00 1310.2 0.01 B1 B2 B3

0.08 B4 B5 B6 B7 B8 0.23 0.04 B9

0.04 0.08

0.06 B10 10.86 0.00 B11 0.23 0.00

0.00 B12 0.20 0.00 B13 B14 -34.73 0.03 B15

0.08 B16 B17

0.00 B18

R 0.970416 0.995551 0.98283 0.994052 0.935715 DW 2.076238 2.396834 1.581423 2.694994 1.68642 AIC 10.64908 9.087788 10.10504 9.378279 11.75851

: B1- B18 ,

37

R , DW , AIC lag1 .

, Pairwise Granger 10 . :

() . . . : Pairwise Granger - .

a.

b.

c. -

d.

e.

f. .

g.

h.

. .

. .

1. . lag 1 .

38

.

Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Date: 03/20/11 Time: 23:47 Sample: 2003 2009 Lags: 1 Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability B1 does not Granger Cause UNE 6 2.80870 0.19235 UNE does not Granger Cause B1 80.6144 0.00292

10 1 5.39 ( ).

2. . . . .

3. 2 . .

4.

(0.82 ) Pairwise Granger - .


39

4- 6 . 1.01 .

5. - 0.91 . - . 5.7 .

6. 0.97 . 0.48 2- .

7.

. 25 , .


1 0.04 .

8. 0.98 . 1 0.08 . 1

40

0.28 .

9. 0.99 . 1 0.18 . .


. . ( ) .

10. . . 4- 1.71 .

11. -0.01 .

12.

. .

41

.


34.73 .

13. .


14. 0.99 . 30 . . 1 .- 1.91 .

42

2.3

(2005-2010 )

UNE (.) K1 () 0.85 K2 , (..) 0.12 K3 (.) 0.35 K4 (.) 0.90 K5 (.) 0.01 K6 (.) 0.88 K7 (.) -0.62 K8 (.) -0.09 K9 () -0.85

K10 , () -0.80 K11 0.30

, , , . , , , , . .

2003-2009 2010 . :

EQ 1 EQ 2 EQ 3 EQ 4 EQ 5 EQ 6 EQ 7 EQ 8 EQ 9 R-squared 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.92 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.95 Durbin-Watson stat 2.31 2.41 2.30 1.28 2.25 2.25 2.43 2.45 1.80 Akaike info criterion -1.63 10.99 10.70 11.55 11.25 11.25 -1.91 -1.59 -1.73 Schwarz criterion -1.74 10.92 10.68 11.54 11.18 11.18 -1.98 -1.70 -1.74 F-statistic 35.80 92.28 150.20 60.96 70.46 70.46 90.47 34.39 94.82

Prob(F-statistic) 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 EQ 1: LOG(UNE) = 12.12106276 + [AR(1)=0.9682825336,MA(1)=-0.9651986219,BACKCAST=2004] EQ 2: UNE = 0 + [AR(1)=1.177846746,MA(2)=-0.9799165031,BACKCAST=2004]

43

EQ 3: UNE = 356.6439232 + 12.79637527*(T^2) EQ 4: UNE = 203.1428571 + 102.3571429*T EQ 5:UNE = 0 + [AR(1)=1.199139159,MA(1)=-0.9040612149,BACKCAST=2004] EQ 6: UNE = 1.199142116*UNE(-1) + [MA(1)=-0.9039222329,BACKCAST=2004] EQ 7: LOG(UNE) = 0 + [AR(1)=1.026045048,MA(2)=-0.9790335502] EQ 8: LOG(UNE) = -42.32437974 + [AR(1)=1.003474602,MA(2)=-0.9744607503,BACKCAST=2004] EQ 9: LOG(UNE) = 5.691242132 + 0.1667798031*T

92 , F . AIC SIC EQ1, EQ7, EQ8 EQ9 F EQ2, EQ3 EQ9 .

EQ 1 EQ 2 EQ 3 EQ 4 EQ 5 EQ 6 EQ 7 EQ 8 EQ 9 2003 385 385 385 369 306 385 385 385 385 350 2004 400 468 453 408 408 462 462 450 455 414 2005 470 566 534 472 510 554 554 527 539 489 2006 500 680 629 561 613 664 664 621 638 577 2007 719 812 741 677 715 796 796 734 756 682 2008 870 964 873 817 817 955 955 871 896 806 2009 944 1139 1028 984 920 1145 1145 1039 1063 952

2010 1136.7 1338 1211 1176 1022 1373 1373 1245 1261 1125 -201.4 -74.1 -38.9 114.7 -235.9 -235.9 -108.7 -124.4 11.8

2011

1564 1426 1393 1124 1646 1646 1499 1498 1329

2010 EQ9 (- - 2010 1136.7$ ) 1125$ 11.8$ - . (EQ9 - ) 2011 1..- 1329$ .

2.4

20 , 95 , 60 , 50 , 30 , 159 6 37 () .

44

0

2 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 1

0

1 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0

5 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 2

0

5 0 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 5 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 3

0

2 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 4

0

1 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 5

0

2 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 6

0

2 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 7

0

1 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 8

0

1 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0

5 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 9

0

5 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 1 0

0

5 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0

2 5 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 1 1

0

5 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

2 5 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 1 2

0

4 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0

1 2 0 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 1 3

2 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 1 4

0

2 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 1 5

0

5 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

2 5 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 1 6

0

2 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 1 7

0

5 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

3 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 1 8

0

5 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 1 9

0

2 0 0 0

4 0 0 0

6 0 0 0

8 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0

1 2 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 2 0

0

1 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

5 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 2 1

0

5 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

3 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Z 2 2

0

2 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

T S

0

1 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

M A T

0

4 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0

1 2 0 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

M E H

0

2 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

T E E B

0

4 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0

1 2 0 0 0 0

1 6 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

D S H Z

0

1 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 0 0 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

S H Z D

0

5 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

2 5 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

N D Z

0

5 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

2 5 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

T H

0

1 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0

5 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

S H B Z D

0

2 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

N Z

0

4 0

8 0

1 2 0

1 6 0

2 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

A I L

0

2 0 0 0

4 0 0 0

6 0 0 0

8 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0

1 2 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

S

3 0 0

4 0 0

5 0 0

6 0 0

7 0 0

8 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

U N E

0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

1 2 3 4 5 6

T

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

H U N

0

1 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

H Z

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

300 350 400 45 0 5 00 5 50 600 650 700 75 0

Series: UNESample 1 6Observations 6

Mean 547.8000Median 562.5500Maximum 740.5000Minimum 342.7000Std. Dev. 180.4962Skewness -0.087423Kurtosis 1.240568


Multiple graphs

6 1.2- 547,8 80 1.2- 960.6*1216=1168089.6 2.1 620289.6

.

, .

. :

45

Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Z8 Z9 Z10 Mean 20331 148372 840757 35674 113211 310120 37737 125144 226874 71335 Median 5222 111965 479919 27258 81566 199797 24893 102368 194841 48048 Maximum 68532 446065 2863163 86421 339186 994079 115899 335886 441264 186112 Minimum 1369 16482 143376 7564 25750 39017 11101 30217 66207 19632 Std. Dev. 27720 159701 1030090 29235 118132 361153 39281 115317 156664 64923 Skewness 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 Kurtosis 2 3 4 2 3 3 4 3 1 3 Jarque-Bera 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 1 1 1 Probability 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 Observations 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

Z11 Z12 Z13 Z14 Z15 Z16 Z17 Z18 Z19 Z20

Mean 12159 107695 48017 48726 41465 72736 18088 914 341 1762 Median 12963 78970 33647 40615 38836 45871 11795 445 0 0 Maximum 21969 294655 145845 117899 92007 238807 62707 2721 2045 10570 Minimum 923 23868 454 23508 13834 0 0 0 0 0 Std. Dev. 7849 100028 53214 34954 28865 90250 23416 1157 835 4315 Skewness 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 Kurtosis 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 4 4 Jarque-Bera 0 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 4 4 Probability 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 oservations 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

Z21 Z22 TS MAT MEH TEEB DSHZ SHZD NDZ TH Mean 16925 844 426461 1490427 58063 73978 64754 2113683 84690 105336 Median 7362 0 349396 1004740 45409 80594 53052 1528075 69386 86301 Maximum 52814 2840 1061733 4885440 170045 113308 161214 6361002 210847 262248 Minimum 0 0 150588 223415 14594 18414 22865 487507 29905 37195 Std. Dev. 22109 1322 340196 1775083 57865 31531 51655 2230368 67559 84028 Skewness 1 1 1 1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 Kurtosis 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 Jarque-Bera 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 Probability 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Observations 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

SHBZD NZ AIL S UNE T HUN HZ

Mean 190026 2303708 69 4538 548 12 51 154148 Median 155687 1683761 55 3025 563 11 51 129498 Maximum 473096 6834098 159 13200 741 24 66 380103 Minimum 67100 565749 20 1100 343 4 36 56180 Std. Dev. 151587 2381687 51 4481 180 7 13 122245 Skewness 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 Kurtosis 3 3 3 3 1 2 1 3

46

Jarque-Bera 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 Probability 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 Observations 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

9 .

. n . :

Cov(x,y)- x,y

Var(x)-x

Var(y)-y

-1 +1

r> 0 , r < 0 .

r - - , r - .

(OLS model ) .:

y=b0+b1x1+b2x2 + . . . bkxk + u

b0 b1 - bk u

. E(u|x1,x2, ,xk) = 0 k+1

9 1 .2- //

47

.

1 1 - . . SST , SSE , SRR SST=SSE+SSR .

. R2 = SSE/SST = 1 SSR/SST

F-: F- F - - , (v1=m+1, v2=n-m-1) F- (F- ). F > F

t- . : j- t- . t=bj/Sj , Sj j- . t- t - - , (v=n-m-2) t- (t- , ). t > t . j- .

37 HUN 12- 1- . 12- Correlation=0.99 12- .

48

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

300

400

500

600

700

800

1 2 3 4 5 6

Residual Actual Fitted

300

400

500

600

700

800

1 2 3 4 5 6

UNE

30

40

50

60

70

1 2 3 4 5 6

HUN

Dependent Variable: UNE Method: Least Squares Date: 03/28/11 Time: 03:08 Sample: 1 6 Included observations: 6

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -174.1529 53.77367 -3.238628 0.0317

HUN 14.05033 1.020807 13.76394 0.0002 R-squared 0.979322 Mean dependent var 547.8000 Adjusted R-squared 0.974153 S.D. dependent var 180.4962 S.E. of regression 29.01838 Akaike info criterion 9.834938 Sum squared resid 3368.266 Schwarz criterion 9.765524 Log likelihood -27.50481 F-statistic 189.4461 Durbin-Watson stat 1.802892 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000161

95 ( t ), 97.4 12- , F .

, 12- multiple bar

graphs

12- 14.05 . 12- 14 .

12-

49

Eviews 5.0 . :

Correlation Coefficient

.

0.0048 Z2 . 0.554 0.0006 Z3 . 0.606 0.0001

. 0.784 0.0048 Z5 . 0.570 0.0009 Z6 . 0.549 0.0003 Z7 . 0.497 0.0023 Z8 . 0.597 0.0009 Z9 . 0.471 0.0005

Z10 . 0.157 0.0004 Z11 . 0.411 0.0095 Z12 . 0.636 0.0011 Z13 . 0.533 0.0018 Z14 . 0.677 0.0035

. 0.478 0.0030 Z16 . 0.756 0.0015 Z17 . 0.705 0.0054 Z18 . 0.012 0.0019 Z19 . -0.217 -0.0469 Z20 . 0.467 0.0195

. 0.744 0.0061

. 0.779 0.1064 TS . 0.605 0.0003

MAT . 0.609 0.0001 MEH . 0.542 0.0017 TEEB . -0.287 -0.0016 DSHZ . 0.605 0.0021 SHZD . 0.601 0.0000 NDZ . 0.605 0.0016 TH . . 0.605 0.0013

SHBZD . 0.605 0.0007 NZ . 0.602 0.0000 AIL 0.424 1.4938

S . 0.479 0.0193 T 0.384 9.7227

12- 0.990 14.0503 HZ / . 0.596 0.0009

50

1 .2- . :

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 12-

1 .2- , , , , , , .

Correlation . Coefficient . : Z1 , (correlation=0.74) . coefficient 0.0048 ; 0.0048 . 1 .2- 4.8 .

. , .

51

. :

, , , , . : () 1,1049 10,49 . ( ) . ( ) , .

12- , 19 6 . :

a. b. c. - d. e. f. . g. h.

. . : 98% . 1 0.18 .

52

. . . ( ) .

, . , . , , , . , , , , . .

6 37 . :

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 12-

: , (correlation=0.74) 1 .2- 4.8 . .

53

,

1. , ,

2. : .

3. / / 2.1 620289.6 .- , . , .

4. . - 100 6% 12% . .

54

,

1. OSullivan, Urban Economics, 5th edition. McGraw-Hill Irwin, 2003, 2. Arthur M. Hyde, The Concept of Price- Determining Rent, The Journal of

Political Economy, Vol.6, No.3. (Jun., 1898) .

,2008

3. , , ., . 2005

4. , .

2008-2010 -

5. 2002, 2003, 2004

6. -2005

7. - 2005

8. - 2005.04

9. :

-

10. 2005

11. 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004

12. 2002

13. 2001-2010

14. , 2000 and 2001 (

)

15. , 2000, 2001 (

)

16. 40000

17. 100000 -

18. http://www.mongolbank.mn

http://www..mic.mn

19. http://www.rusipoteka.ru

20. http://www.gnma.gov.org

21. http://www.worldbank.org/capmarkets/housing

22. http://www.emortgage.com

http://www.mongolbank.mn/http://www..mic.mn/http://www.rusipoteka.ru/http://www.gnma.gov.org/http://worldbank.org/capmarkets/housinghttp://www.emortgage.com/

55 0.000

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.006

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

AIL

Kernel Density (Normal, h = 25.722)

1

-

1 120

1,3-1,35.%

15-20 30%

0,5%

3

0,15%

0,15%

2 3.0-

80.0 1.7%- 1.4% $

10

30%

3

2%

45%

3

100

1.2%-1.35%

15

20%

0,5%

3

,

4

100

1,4-1,6%

10-15

30%

5

100.0

1.5%-1,3

15

30%

40- 50%

, 2

6

100

2.50%

10

30%

,

7 85

1.3%-1.6%- 1.37%-1.7%-$

15

20%-50%

2 , ,

Tabulation of CTA Date: 03/14/11 Time: 15:05

56

Sample: 1 80 Included observations: 80 Number of categories: 12

Cumulative Cumulative Value Count Percent Count Percent [0, 50) 14 17.50 14 17.50

[50, 100) 25 31.25 39 48.75 [100, 150) 20 25.00 59 73.75 [150, 200) 7 8.75 66 82.50 [200, 250) 4 5.00 70 87.50 [250, 300) 3 3.75 73 91.25 [300, 350) 1 1.25 74 92.50 [400, 450) 1 1.25 75 93.75 [550, 600) 2 2.50 77 96.25 [800, 850) 1 1.25 78 97.50

[1800, 1850) 1 1.25 79 98.75 [3200, 3250) 1 1.25 80 100.00

Total 80 100.00 80 100.00

Tabulation of CS Date: 03/14/11 Time: 15:11 Sample: 1 80 Included observations: 80 Number of categories: 7

Cumulative Cumulative Value Count Percent Count Percent

[20, 40) 7 8.75 7 8.75 [40, 60) 25 31.25 32 40.00 [60, 80) 23 28.75 55 68.75 [80, 100) 12 15.00 67 83.75

[100, 120) 8 10.00 75 93.75 [120, 140) 2 2.50 77 96.25 [180, 200) 3 3.75 80 100.00

Total 80 100.00 80 100.00 Tabulation of Date: 03/14/11 Time: 15:07 Sample: 1 80 Included observations: 80 Number of categories: 18


[500, 550) 1 1.25 1 1.25 [650, 700) 2 2.50 3 3.75 [700, 750) 3 3.75 6 7.50 [750, 800) 10 12.50 16 20.00 [800, 850) 4 5.00 20 25.00 [850, 900) 19 23.75 39 48.75 [900, 950) 10 12.50 49 61.25 [950, 1000) 10 12.50 59 73.75 [1000, 1050) 4 5.00 63 78.75 [1100, 1150) 2 2.50 65 81.25 [1150, 1200) 4 5.00 69 86.25 [1200, 1250) 4 5.00 73 91.25 [1300, 1350) 1 1.25 74 92.50 [1350, 1400) 2 2.50 76 95.00 [1400, 1450) 1 1.25 77 96.25 [1500, 1550) 1 1.25 78 97.50

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

40 60 80 100 120 140 160 18 0

Series: HEMJSample 1 80Observations 80

Mean 74.37519Median 66.17500Maximum 188.0000Minimum 27.28000Std. Dev. 31.88984Skewness 1.681169Kurtosis 6.556065


0

10

20

30

40

0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200

Series: AILSample 1 80Observations 80

Mean 189.6375Median 107.0000Maximum 3200.000Minimum 17.00000Std. Dev. 409.2060Skewness 5.894474Kurtosis 40.71034


0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

50 100 150 200

HEMJ


0

5

10

15

20

25

4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Series: DAVHARSample 1 80Observations 80

Mean 10.08750Median 10.00000Maximum 17.00000Minimum 3.000000Std. Dev. 2.960473Skewness -0.082872Kurtosis 2.669379


57

3

1 , .

obs Actual Fitted Residual Residual Plot 1 6.80128303447 6.72597642182 0.0753066126477 | . | *. | 2 6.94697599214 6.80209660787 0.144879384264 | . | .* | 3 6.69703424767 6.80824827991 -0.111214032247 | * | . | 4 6.7850225136 6.93735955759 -0.152337043987 | *. | . | 5 6.68461172767 6.76064178865 -0.0760300609829 | .* | . | 6 6.81014245012 6.65062181194 0.159520638172 | . | .* | 7 6.74523634948 6.82401473056 -0.0787783810805 | .* | . | 8 6.79122146273 6.85369613171 -0.0624746689864 | .* | . | 9 6.95368421087 6.99790122818 -0.0442170173095 | . *| . | 10 7.04009846597 7.04911336945 -0.00901490348181 | . * . | 11 6.88479366734 6.80477355605 0.0800201112972 | . | *. | 12 6.90675477865 6.88955690925 0.0171978694018 | . * . | 13 6.64859587346 6.66295306836 -0.0143571948983 | . * . | 14 7.03315368838 6.90233077176 0.130822916613 | . | * | 15 6.80139426299 6.78093835458 0.0204559084092 | . |* . | 16 6.61029219468 6.56621981922 0.0440723754507 | . |* . | 17 6.75693238925 6.81704663508 -0.0601142458366 | .* | . | 18 6.65157187359 6.6995070232 -0.0479351496071 | . *| . | 19 6.84396314589 7.08413413014 -0.240170984248 | * . | . | 20 7.22125128633 7.02003491964 0.201216366692 | . | . * | 21 6.2906427847 6.50234505112 -0.211702266427 | * . | . | 22 6.66159895336 6.69437605324 -0.0327770998816 | . *| . | 23 6.75693238925 6.60113044143 0.155801947817 | . | .* | 24 6.64144323227 6.59088260862 0.0505606236457 | . |* . | 25 6.88479366734 6.93837627436 -0.0535826070106 | . *| . | 26 6.66159895336 6.78302150163 -0.121422548273 | * | . | 27 6.60502724833 6.59103763803 0.0139896102946 | . * . | 28 6.81859614266 6.82267559684 -0.00407945418233 | . * . | 29 6.85646198459 7.00894558854 -0.152483603945 | *. | . |

[1550, 1600) 1 1.25 79 98.75 [1850, 1900) 1 1.25 80 100.00

Total 80 100.00 80 100.00

80 80 100.00 80

100.00 80 100.00

80 80

100.00

Tabulation of CTD Date: 03/14/11 Time: 15:18 Sample: 1 80 Included observations: 80 Number of categories: 10


3 1 1.25 1 1.25 5 5 6.25 6 7.50 6 8 10.00 14 17.50 8 7 8.75 21 26.25 9 13 16.25 34 42.50

10 12 15.00 46 57.50 12 20 25.00 66 82.50 13 8 10.00 74 92.50 15 4 5.00 78 97.50 17 2 2.50 80 100.00

Total 80 100.00 80 100.00

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

5 10 15

DAVHAR


58

30 6.80239476332 6.89073276637 -0.0883380030408 | .* | . | 31 7.31322038709 7.32881396554 -0.0155935784522 | . * . | 32 7.06706406147 6.98227577096 0.0847882905075 | . | *. | 33 7.04751722136 7.09073907416 -0.043221852798 | . *| . | 34 7.09007683578 7.04580072855 0.0442761072288 | . |* . | 35 6.71985820785 6.7638526116 -0.0439944037451 | . *| . | 36 6.84396314589 6.76627535094 0.0776877949548 | . | *. | 37 7.17011954345 6.88240502606 0.287714517386 | . | . * | 38 7.09007683578 7.09631314883 -0.00623631305184 | . * . | 39 6.74523634948 7.0106794237 -0.265443074212 | * . | . | 40 6.89274315886 6.92118031308 -0.0284371542168 | . *| . | 41 7.23820944328 7.27037254621 -0.0321631029349 | . *| . | 42 7.09007683578 6.95943402895 0.130642806822 | . | * | 43 6.80239476332 6.8690358211 -0.0666410577729 | .* | . | 44 6.69703424767 6.88546388784 -0.188429640171 | * . | . | 45 6.62007320653 6.67691103519 -0.0568378286587 | .* | . | 46 7.52294091807 7.06940512942 0.453535788652 | . | . *| 47 6.90775527898 6.88849152167 0.0192637573118 | . |* . | 48 6.82708737591 6.93411958313 -0.10703220722 | * | . | 49 6.89770494313 6.91720216499 -0.0194972218635 | . *| . | 50 6.85646198459 6.86641398207 -0.00995199747398 | . * . | 51 6.80139426299 6.77431190223 0.0270823607594 | . |* . | 52 6.92402225145 6.81858897943 0.105433272013 | . | * | 53 6.52238687257 6.64493308601 -0.122546213435 | * | . | 54 6.53378883793 6.80083584061 -0.267047002674 | * . | . | 55 6.89770494313 6.79874962532 0.0989553178068 | . | * | 56 6.61445746774 6.64663262499 -0.0321751572435 | . *| . | 57 7.06706406147 6.96748902035 0.0995750411185 | . | * | 58 7.06706406147 6.96748902035 0.0995750411185 | . | * | 59 6.66159895336 6.76534809399 -0.103749140635 | * | . | 60 7.34601020991 7.32691099387 0.0190992160404 | . |* . | 61 7.2442275156 7.03728673089 0.206940784709 | . | . * | 62 6.8356146012 6.9075242521 -0.0719096508977 | .* | . | 63 6.76849321165 6.76042726259 0.0080659490538 | . * . | 64 6.74523634948 6.87111854968 -0.125882200199 | * | . | 65 6.78389129176 6.71226831993 0.0716229718253 | . | *. | 66 7.09007683578 6.96310513196 0.126971703819 | . | * | 67 6.84396314589 6.72471697382 0.119246172071 | . | * | 68 6.89770494313 6.72471697382 0.172987969305 | . | . * | 69 6.75693238925 6.85957243426 -0.102640045016 | * | . | 70 6.75693238925 6.76792148427 -0.010989095027 | . * . | 71 6.75693238925 6.82172445869 -0.0647920694453 | .* | . | 72 6.75693238925 6.69436627914 0.0625661101102 | . | *. | 73 6.85646198459 6.70900602547 0.147455959123 | . | .* | 74 6.78389129176 6.6770801717 0.106811120058 | . | * | 75 6.66159895336 6.68469911193 -0.0231001585726 | . *| . | 76 6.65157187359 6.67137125669 -0.0197993831031 | . *| . | 77 6.80239476332 6.79547891252 0.00691585080804 | . * . | 78 6.64859587346 6.86658311858 -0.217987245118 | * . | . | 79 6.77582260772 6.88181394549 -0.105991337768 | * | . | 80 6.78207867089 6.74001954107 0.0420591298225 | . |* . |

4

Dependent Variable: LOG(UNE) Method: Least Squares Date: 03/20/11 Time: 12:38 Sample(adjusted): 2004 2009 Included observations: 6 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after 27 iterations

59

Backcast: 2003 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 12.12106 25.23699 0.480290 0.6639 AR(1) 0.968283 0.138456 6.993441 0.0060 MA(1) -0.965199 0.128717 -7.498633 0.0049

R-squared 0.959782 Mean dependent var 6.425881 Adjusted R-squared 0.932970 S.D. dependent var 0.354522 S.E. of regression 0.091786 Akaike info criterion -1.631861 Sum squared resid 0.025274 Schwarz criterion -1.735982 Log likelihood 7.895584 F-statistic 35.79696 Durbin-Watson stat 2.307003 Prob(F-statistic) 0.008065 Inverted AR Roots .97 Inverted MA Roots .97

Dependent Variable: UNE Method: Least Squares Date: 03/20/11 Time: 15:26 Sample(adjusted): 2004 2009 Included observations: 6 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after 16 iterations Backcast: 2002 2003

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. AR(1) 1.177847 0.019498 60.40861 0.0000 MA(2) -0.979917 0.000333 -2945.158 0.0000

R-squared 0.958455 Mean dependent var 650.5000 Adjusted R-squared 0.948069 S.D. dependent var 226.7137 S.E. of regression 51.66448 Akaike info criterion 10.98862 Sum squared resid 10676.87 Schwarz criterion 10.91921 Log likelihood -30.96586 F-statistic 92.28119 Durbin-Watson stat 2.407173 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000656 Inverted AR Roots 1.18 Inverted MA Roots .99 -.99



T^2 12.79638 1.044119 12.25567 0.0001 R-squared 0.967784 Mean dependent var 612.5714 Adjusted R-squared 0.961341 S.D. dependent var 230.0057 S.E. of regression 45.22373 Akaike info criterion 10.69608 Sum squared resid 10225.93 Schwarz criterion 10.68062 Log likelihood -35.43627 F-statistic 150.2014 Durbin-Watson stat 2.302727 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000064


60

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 203.1429 58.62733 3.464986 0.0179 T 102.3571 13.10947 7.807879 0.0006

R-squared 0.924200 Mean dependent var 612.5714 Adjusted R-squared 0.909040 S.D. dependent var 230.0057 S.E. of regression 69.36879 Akaike info criterion 11.55171 Sum squared resid 24060.14 Schwarz criterion 11.53625 Log likelihood -38.43098 F-statistic 60.96297 Durbin-Watson stat 1.275538 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000552

Dependent Variable: UNE Method: Least Squares Date: 03/19/11 Time: 18:53 Sample(adjusted): 2004 2009 Included observations: 6 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after 14 iterations Backcast: 2003


R-squared 0.946280 Mean dependent var 650.5000 Adjusted R-squared 0.932849 S.D. dependent var 226.7137 S.E. of regression 58.74927 Akaike info criterion 11.24564 Sum squared resid 13805.91 Schwarz criterion 11.17622 Log likelihood -31.73691 F-statistic 70.45957 Durbin-Watson stat 2.247259 Prob(F-statistic) 0.001102 Inverted AR Roots 1.20 Inverted MA Roots .90

Dependent Variable: UNE Method: Least Squares Date: 03/20/11 Time: 15:13 Sample(adjusted): 2004 2009 Included observations: 6 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after 8 iterations Backcast: 2003

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. UNE(-1) 1.199142 0.022528 53.22932 0.0000 MA(1) -0.903922 0.106840 -8.460501 0.0011

R-squared 0.946280 Mean dependent var 650.5000 Adjusted R-squared 0.932849 S.D. dependent var 226.7137 S.E. of regression 58.74927 Akaike info criterion 11.24564 Sum squared resid 13805.91 Schwarz criterion 11.17622 Log likelihood -31.73691 F-statistic 70.45957 Durbin-Watson stat 2.247560 Prob(F-statistic) 0.001102 Inverted MA Roots .90

Dependent Variable: LOG(UNE) Method: Least Squares Date: 03/20/11 Time: 13:29 Sample(adjusted): 2004 2009 Included observations: 6 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after 15 iterations Backcast: 2002 2003

61


R-squared 0.957660 Mean dependent var 6.425881 Adjusted R-squared 0.947075 S.D. dependent var 0.354522 S.E. of regression 0.081559 Akaike info criterion -1.913771 Sum squared resid 0.026608 Schwarz criterion -1.983185 Log likelihood 7.741314 F-statistic 90.47333 Durbin-Watson stat 2.431255 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000682 Inverted AR Roots 1.03

Estimated AR process is nonstationary Inverted MA Roots .99 -.99

Dependent Variable: LOG(UNE) Method: Least Squares Date: 03/20/11 Time: 12:34 Sample(adjusted): 2004 2009 Included observations: 6 after adjusting endpoints Convergence not achieved after 100 iterations Backcast: 2002 2003

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -42.32438 3499.207 -0.012095 0.9911

AR(1) 1.003475 0.249512 4.021743 0.0276 MA(2) -0.974461 0.102250 -9.530136 0.0025

R-squared 0.958202 Mean dependent var 6.425881 Adjusted R-squared 0.930337 S.D. dependent var 0.354522 S.E. of regression 0.093572 Akaike info criterion -1.593329 Sum squared resid 0.026267 Schwarz criterion -1.697449 Log likelihood 7.779987 F-statistic 34.38715 Durbin-Watson stat 2.449889 Prob(F-statistic) 0.008545 Inverted AR Roots 1.00

Estimated AR process is nonstationary Inverted MA Roots .99 -.99

Dependent Variable: LOG(UNE) Method: Least Squares Date: 03/20/11 Time: 13:41 Sample: 2003 2009 Included observations: 7

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 5.691242 0.076596 74.30178 0.0000 T 0.166780 0.017127 9.737570 0.0002

R-squared 0.949910 Mean dependent var 6.358361 Adjusted R-squared 0.939892 S.D. dependent var 0.369663 S.E. of regression 0.090630 Akaike info criterion -1.729107 Sum squared resid 0.041069 Schwarz criterion -1.744561 Log likelihood 8.051875 F-statistic 94.82027 Durbin-Watson stat 1.801442 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000194

62

5

1 .

-

2 39.2-52.3, 3 54.5-87.2 1,150,000 590 8

, 4

2 56.72 552 1330000 75 15

""

,

11

1-2 32,4-61,7 810 164 17

"New World" " "

13- , 15- , 5-

1-3 48.98-942 884.5 428 10

, 6- ,

2009 8- 1

2 51-71, 3 73-88 800 126 12

, 16-

2010 4-

2 34,82-53 2 3 68- 68,84 2 1,160,000 60 8

""

14- , , 4 2011 26.6 - 105 2 850 800 13

""

1- , - - ,

2010 3

3-4 93.06 2-97 2 890 80 6

, 6- , 13- , ""

2010.02

50.73 2-179.55 2 1339500 168 12

"" -2

, 4 , ,

39 - 152.4 2 1,460.000 196 17

" "

18 , 13- ,

2-3 59.58 - 83.91 2 1,250,000 42 10

" - ""

, 6- ,

37,3-121,38 999 1800 10

"FCC" ""

,

2010.03-

2 54,9-63,98 2 3 77,08-95,9 2 987000 60 8

1- -14, 2009 75-105 1450000 30 8

63

O&BN 6- , 2009, 3- 47-90 1,150,0 58 10

""

8- ,

2010.02 19,2-35,36 950,000 286 5

" - "

6- ,

2010 3

1-3 49.01-78.87 2 1100000 64 9

" "

1- , , ""

10

2 - 6 /61 - 200 2/ 1,400,0 64

" "

, 14-

2011 1

1-2 24,254068 2

820,000-980,000 70

- " "

3- ,

74.75 2 3 1,180,0

""

, 16- , , 34-

3 -80 2 990000 32 5

, 2011 1-2 850$ 96

" "

11- , 0 16 , -

2 35,12-56 2 825.000

, , , 73-

3-4 94, 97, 109 2 1,200,0 50 12

, 16- ,

3

940-990

" " Crystal town

,

2- 2010 4- 2011

3-5 80 - 1402 1,750,000 135 15

IPW

, 17- ,

21,25 2- 50,5 2

690000 294 3

, 8- , 50

752 1`000`000 73 6

" "

5- ,

2009 2

432 - 44.9 - 2 562 - 58.4 - 2 1100000 40 6

, 13 ,

2011 2- 25,63-40,68 2

820,000-980,000 68 10

64

, 15 , -72

72-127 2

1,250,000 45 12

, , 107.5- 2 2009 32-78 1000000 132 9

, 22- 15- 3- 2009 43-62 945000 120 5

" "

, 2009

1 - 47.09, 2 - 52.53 - 54.63 - 59.6, 3 - 70.25 - 98.8 - 101.2, 4-5 1170000 554 12

, 18- , 2009 93 2 950 171 9

1

101 2 900 50 9

LUXURY ZAISAN VILLAGE

1- , .

3-7 , /74-302/ 1500 120 6

"KHRE" River Hills Town 11- ,

2010 10

59.49-141.64 2 /2-4 / 1,500,000 17 5

House international

3-5 101-147,05 2 1150$

"- " " "

, 3- , ,

44.06 59.272 750$

"" " "

,11- ,

71,32- 2 1150 52 10

""

-

4 135-150 2 1200$

11

3-5 130 -150 2 1"100"0

11- ,

2 -6 652-2052 1200$ 3200 6

" " 48

1- ,

2-3 /76.29-89.99 2/ 950$ 48

65

-

12

89-2202 3-5 3,000,0

" "

1- , ,

105-150 2 1000$

"" Park house-2

, 2 ,

2010 10

1-3 49.62-79.68 2 1060000 204 9

" " " "

, , MCS Coca Cola

1-5 31.90-113.67 2 950-980$

- " "

1- ,

20.32-90 2 1-3 1200000 83 9

Nisora townhouse

1- , , MCS Coca-Cola - 100 -

220 2 1600$

""

, 5- , 600

2011 1-

-355 2 32 -100.4, 104.9 2 1200$

32 , 5ownouse

""

1- ,

2 - 3 950-1200 $

20

" "

1- , -

2010 4- 2 49-62 2 1300 32 10

, 11- ,

2010 4-

70-140 2 /2-4 / 1200 140 12

Standard Group

,11- ,

2010 10-

378-406 2 1 3-5 , 2 ,

1350-1450

2 34

1- , "Orange town"-

, 2- 2011 3-

2 - 3 /67.03 - 97.27 2/ 850 88 12

, 19-

1-2 45,26 2-56b2

1 1,170,0 2 1,150,0 66

, 1- ,

4 123,126,133,136 2 3 78 2 2 58 2 1.260.000 68 9

, 3- , 18- 2 / 46-47 620 $

66

4-

2

- , Mogul town

11- ,

2010 10 2011 9 66.55-295.87 2 1,780,0 315 9

White phoenix

11 ,

86, 95, 112 3 1200$ 93 10

,

2010 8

1-4 30.12-125 2 900 144 9

1- 115-

2011 1

2 3 52,12, 55,552, 74,7 2 1190000 60

"" 1-

47.6 2, 51.7 2 810 96 12

10- , 100 ,

2009 II- 41-56 750 120 12

The One Residence -

,

2011 1 97.93 1850 108 12

RBA International

3- ,

2-3 39-118 2 1000 176 15

-11

, 7- , -

68.10 2-99.39 2 /2-3 / 1,180,000 120 12

" " , " "

, 5- , 3- , 3-

2009 12- 15

3 62-92 ., 4 84 . 990 72 12

, - 2

2009 4-

48.54, 54.062, 61.322 950 78 15

, 6 6

2009 4- 58-84 1150000 48 8

,

2009 4- 90-96 1300000 24 6

6- , 2009, 6, 7

2 37.5 51 2 870,000 20 5

Lucky town

, 5- ,

2009 12 30

2-3 55,322, 58,732, 64,952 880,000 214 12

, 18- 5- 51,4-59,6 2 940-990 150 13

67

""

, 19- , 21- ,

2010 1- 41-62 953946 32 9

24-

2009 II-

1-3 40-95 2 1500000 60 13

1-

2009 II-

1-3 40-95 2 1500000 60 13

6- , -

2009 43.5-70.7 1000000 144 12

,

2010 2-

732 3022 - 1550 112 6

, 2010

73.3,87.2,161 2 1400 36 13

4- ,

1 - 3 /35.16 2 - 90.312/ 1,190,000 50 10

20- ,

2-4 45.1-101.8 2 870$ 208 9

4- , 29

2011 3

1-3 43.42-83.66 2 850$ 250 12

6- , UB Palace-

33.7-32.0, 36.4-34.58 2,3 1130000 76 8

-

, 17- , 4

2009 3 40 2-100 2 1200$ 112 12

10- ,

2009 3

1 28.9-37 2 2 42,13-50,92 2 1,200,0 132 12

" "

, 10-

2009 12

1 - 28.2- 41.2, 2 - 43.2-46.4 990 132 12

X-Land construction

5- , 3-

2010 4 57,4-78,2 2 1,100,000 58 10

11- ,

2009 4

1 30.49,2 -47.17, 49.92, 43.88 2, 3 -64.45 1,100,000 120 13

68

2

, 2- , / 25-

2010 4- 2 46,92 1,100,000 120 13

" " Hanjoo Vill 3-

2011 5 292-49.72 1100000 20 6

"" , ""

, 2, 7-

2009

1 - 37-45.64, 2 - 57.3-58.4 950 120 10

17- , 7- , 72

35-84 1130000 72 9

" "

2- , - 2009 53,88-61,77 1000000 120 10

, - , 2009 35-81 990000 48 9

KHRE

4- 2009

2-3 45.93-78.05 2 900 60 8

, ""

, 2- , 2009 30-102 987,000 106 12

" "

10- , 2009 35,7-97 1,120,950 200 13

18- , 4 , 2- 2009 35.37-65.522 1,128,000 150 12

house price final

Education