hotel industry research – an str perspective the share center supporting hotel-related academic...

Hotel Industry Research – an STR Perspective

The SHARE CenterSupporting Hotel-related Academic Research and Education

Table of Contents• Brief intro to STR

– SHARE Center, Products and Services– What data does STR track?

• How do we look at hotel data?– Types, metrics, and perspectives

• How do we work with others?– Past research, future possibilities

Who is Smith Travel Research?

• The recognized leader in hotel benchmarking

• STR samples (obtains performance data from) over 70% of total U.S. room supply (99% of chain hotels and most significant independent hotels) and nearly 50% of total global (non-US) room supply

• STR provides monthly, weekly, and daily STAR reports to over 42,000 hotels

• Impartial, timely, confidential, and accurate

Who does STR serve?

• Hotel Companies and Hotels (most GM’s bonuses)

• Convention & Visitor Bureaus, Tourism and travel organizations, Hotel associations (endorsed by AHLA)

• Developers, Consultants, Appraisers (most bank loans)

• Wall Street/Accounting firms, Financial institutions

• Media (Wall St Journal, USA Today, …)

• National & international hotel conferences (keynotes)

• Hotel vendors (HBO, Sealy, Starbucks, …)

• Educators

• Government (GSA, FEMA, BLS, DOE/HS, NPS, Commerce, …)

Main customers are hotel companies, enabling us to serve many third parties including universities

A Little History of STR• 1985 – founded, started collecting hotel attribute info

• 1987 – started collecting monthly sales data

• 1992 – started collecting data outside US, NA then WW

• 1999 – started collecting daily data

• 2008 – launched STR Global (offices in London, Singapore, Tokyo, Beijing, Dubai, Australia, Italy, Brazil, …)

• 2008 – launched Hotel News Now (offices in Cleveland)

• 2009 – RRC and STR Analytics (offices in Boulder)

• 2009 – launched Hotel Data Conference

• 2011 – launched the SHARE Center

The SHARE Center• The Mission:

– Provide thorough and timely data for academic research

– Provide comprehensive and relevant training materials for the classroom

• A Global Partnership:– STR, ICHRIE, and others (AHLEI, industry)

– Launched in 2011, over 80 schools now involved around the world

Resources from the SHARE Center

• Ability to order ad-hoc reports: Trends, HOST (P&L), Pipeline, Census data, Forecasts, others

• Ability to generate Destination reports

• Training programs, Train the Trainer sessions

• Comprehensive set of sample reports

• Publications, access to articles and presentations

• STR Census database, hotel company database

• Help with research, hotel industry reference info

• Campus visits, webinars, updates, forums

• Student certification in Hotel Industry Analytics

www.hotelnewsnow.com

• Free electronic news service. Click “Join” and you’ll get anemail every morning with headlines. Click to read

• Focus on data/performance, latest issues, conferences;global topics

• User-friendly search cap-ability, 3 years of past articles

• Great for current events, staying connected to Industry

What data does STR track?

• Hotel census data – attribute information– Name, address, phone, number of rooms– Geographic & non-geographic categorization, lat/longs– Amenities, physical info, affiliations, & history (changes)– US & WW hotels

• Pipeline data– Hotels under construction– Projects in planning stage

• Rooms sales data – performance information– Rooms available, rooms sold, & room revenue– Monthly & daily

Other types of data: • Segmented sales data

– Group, Transient, & Contract– Rooms sold & Room revenue

• Additional Revenue data– Food & Beverage Revenue– Other Revenue– Total Revenue

• Profit & Loss data - HOST=Hotel Operating STatistics– Multiple revenue & expense accounts– Also payroll, fees, taxes, profit– Collected annually

• Channel data – rooms & revenue by booking source

Data Participation & History

Type of DataUS WW (non-US)

# Hotels Back Data # Hotels Back Data

Census/Attribute 52K 1985* 95K 1992*

STAR - monthly 29K 1987 13K varies

STAR - daily 28.5K 1998 13K 2000

Group/Transient 4K** 2002 1K 2007+

Additional Revenue 3K 2002 1K

HOST (annual P&L) 6K 1991 2K 1997

Pipeline 4K*** 2002 4K*** 2008

* Started tracking data/changes in this year, hotels open back to 1750,** 95% of Luxury and Upper Upscale hotels, *** # of current projects

Overview of Products and Services

• Contract Reports:

– Hotels: STAR Property Report

– Hotel Companies: Corporate Reports & Data

– CVBs/Tourism Orgs: Destination Reports

• Ad-hoc Reports

• Publications

• Industry presentations

• Additional Services

STAR Property Reports

• Emailed to hotel on monthly, weekly, and daily basis

• Compare subject hotel to comp set(s) and industry segments

• Displays performance metrics for different timeperiods

• New: Spa STAR, Casino STAR

United Kingdom United StatesBlue Fin Building 735 East Main Street

110 Southwark Street HendersonvilleLondon SE1 0TA TN 37075

Phone: +44 (0)20 7922 1930 Phone: +1 (615) 824 8664Fax: +44 (0)20 7922 1931 Fax: +1 (615) 824 3848

www.strglobal.com www.strglobal.com

Monthly STAR Report Sample (US & Canada)

July 2008 STR #: 98765 Date Created: August 24, 2008Tab

Table of Contents 1Monthly Performance at a Glance 2STAR Summary 3Competitive Set Report 4Response Report 5Segmentation Summary 6Segmentation Occupancy Analysis 7Segmentation ADR Analysis 8Segmentation RevPAR Analysis 9Segmentation Index Analysis 10Segmentation Ranking Analysis 11Segmentation Day of Week - Current Month 12Segmentation Day of Week - Year to Date 13Additional Revenue ADR Analysis 14Additional Revenue RevPAR Analysis 15Segmentation Reponse Report 16Daily Data for the Month 17Day of Week & Weekday/Weekend 18Help 19

Available to Weekly STAR participants only

Available to Segmentation participants only




www.strglobal.com www.strglobal.com

Weekly STAR Report Sample (US & Canada)

August 27, 2008 - September 2, 2008 STR #: 98765 Date Created: September 6, 2008

TabTable of Contents 1Weekly STAR Summary 2Segmentation Summary 3Daily Data For Month 4Occupancy Perspectives 5Occupancy Analysis 6ADR Perspectives 7ADR Analysis 8RevPAR Perspectives 9RevPAR Analysis 10Other Revenue 11Response Report 12Help 13

Available to Segmentation participants only

Monthly STAR Report - Competitive Set TabTab 4 - Competitive Set Report

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006

My Property 85.2 94.1 91.4 94.1 91.0 87.5 87.4 92.3 89.9 93.7 89.8 74.8 78.2 84.3 82.7 75.1 81.0 89.8 85.9 88.4 80.9 88.9 90.8 82.0 86.9 89.9 84.9

Competitive Set 75.7 84.5 86.9 90.8 91.1 89.9 89.1 89.7 88.9 91.3 87.7 78.4 77.1 84.8 90.3 92.1 92.1 90.5 83.9 83.9 86.5 89.8 90.6 91.5 83.3 85.7 87.7

Index 112.6 111.3 105.1 103.6 99.9 97.3 98.1 102.8 101.1 102.6 102.3 95.5 101.4 99.4 91.6 81.6 87.9 99.3 102.4 105.4 93.4 98.9 100.3 89.6 104.4 105.0 96.8

Rank 2 of 7 1 of 7 3 of 7 1 of 7 4 of 7 4 of 7 5 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 7 3 of 7 5 of 7 3 of 7 6 of 7 6 of 7 7 of 7 7 of 7 6 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 7 6 of 7 4 of 7 4 of 7 7 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 7 5 of 7

% ChgMy Property 9.6 6.1 -1.9 3.2 6.4 -2.7 -3.4 1.1 -3.1 0.1 -3.0 -0.7 -8.2 -10.4 -9.4 -20.2 -11.0 2.7 4.9 2.9 -8.5 3.3 2.2 -9.8 2.5 3.5 -5.6

Competitive Set -0.4 1.4 0.0 2.9 -0.7 0.3 1.7 -0.8 -2.0 2.8 4.6 15.7 1.9 0.4 3.9 1.4 1.1 0.7 13.0 0.0 3.2 8.4 0.8 1.1 8.8 2.9 2.4

Index 10.0 4.7 -1.9 0.3 7.1 -2.9 -5.1 1.9 -1.2 -2.5 -7.3 -14.2 -10.0 -10.7 -12.9 -21.3 -12.0 2.0 -7.1 2.9 -11.3 -4.8 1.4 -10.7 -5.8 0.5 -7.7



My Property 192.91 210.16 230.88 235.01 246.28 213.62 203.79 268.37 285.03 305.36 305.85 219.85 214.76 233.08 265.79 280.23 290.72 234.89 192.40 217.45 248.55 201.36 231.75 266.87 198.80 225.66 259.98

Competitive Set 199.79 210.74 225.94 233.05 241.04 211.33 205.11 275.40 273.81 294.54 310.55 211.98 214.75 235.64 249.42 263.19 272.36 229.88 189.64 217.61 241.02 196.98 228.41 255.11 195.32 223.24 254.12

Index 96.6 99.7 102.2 100.8 102.2 101.1 99.4 97.4 104.1 103.7 98.5 103.7 100.0 98.9 106.6 106.5 106.7 102.2 101.5 99.9 103.1 102.2 101.5 104.6 101.8 101.1 102.3


% ChgMy Property 7.8 7.6 19.5 10.4 22.9 12.1 11.4 19.2 17.8 19.1 11.2 19.0 11.3 10.9 15.1 19.2 18.0 10.0 7.0 13.0 14.3 9.9 15.1 15.2 3.9 13.5 15.2

Competitive Set 14.8 11.0 18.2 13.4 18.1 16.4 12.2 27.2 16.9 18.8 14.3 11.0 7.5 11.8 10.4 12.9 13.0 8.8 8.5 14.7 10.8 12.4 16.0 11.7 3.5 14.3 13.8

Index -6.1 -3.1 1.1 -2.6 4.1 -3.7 -0.7 -6.3 0.8 0.2 -2.7 7.2 3.6 -0.8 4.3 5.6 4.5 1.1 -1.3 -1.5 3.2 -2.3 -0.7 3.1 0.4 -0.7 1.2



My Property 164.38 197.68 210.94 221.07 224.01 186.83 178.09 247.59 256.27 286.01 274.51 164.53 167.96 196.43 219.91 210.46 235.42 210.89 165.25 192.16 201.01 178.95 210.49 218.75 172.84 202.97 220.81

Competitive Set 151.21 178.06 196.34 211.53 219.51 189.89 182.70 247.16 243.55 269.01 272.41 166.12 165.68 199.80 225.29 242.33 250.80 207.93 159.02 182.47 208.60 176.92 206.84 233.50 162.61 191.31 222.92

Index 108.7 111.0 107.4 104.5 102.0 98.4 97.5 100.2 105.2 106.3 100.8 99.0 101.4 98.3 97.6 86.9 93.9 101.4 103.9 105.3 96.4 101.1 101.8 93.7 106.3 106.1 99.1


% ChgMy Property 18.1 14.1 17.3 13.9 30.8 9.1 7.6 20.5 14.1 19.2 7.9 18.2 2.2 -0.6 4.2 -4.8 5.1 12.9 12.3 16.3 4.6 13.5 17.6 3.9 6.5 17.4 8.8

Competitive Set 14.3 12.5 18.2 16.6 17.3 16.8 14.1 26.2 14.6 22.1 19.6 28.4 9.6 12.2 14.7 14.6 14.3 9.5 22.5 14.7 14.3 21.9 16.9 12.9 12.6 17.7 16.5

Index 3.3 1.5 -0.8 -2.4 11.5 -6.6 -5.8 -4.5 -0.4 -2.3 -9.8 -7.9 -6.7 -11.4 -9.1 -16.9 -8.0 3.1 -8.3 1.3 -8.5 -6.9 0.6 -7.9 -5.4 -0.2 -6.6


Any Hotel 123 Any Street Any City, Any State 99999 (555) 555-5555

STR # 9850 ChainID: 000026566 MgtCo: None Owner: None

For the Month of: July 2006 Date Created: August 24, 2006 Monthly Competitive Set Data Excludes Subject Property

Occupancy (%)Running 3 MonthYear To Date Running 12 Month2005 2006

Running 12 Month

Running 12 Month2006

2006RevPAR ($)

Running 3 Month

Running 3 Month

Year To DateADR ($)

Year To Date

2005

2005

Monthly Indexes

77

87

97

107

117

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Occupancy ADR RevPAR 100 %

RevPAR Percent Change - 2006

-1

4

9

14

19

Year to Date Running 3 Month Running 12 Month

My Property Competitive Set

Weekly STAR Report - Perspective PagesTab 9 - RevPAR PerspectivesAny Hotel 123 Any Street Any City, Any State 99999 (555) 555-5555

STR # 98765 Chain ID: 999999 Mgt Co: None Owner: None

Period ending: September 02, 2006 Date Created: September 06, 2006

Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su Mo Tu We Th Fr SaRevPAR ($) Aug Sep Current Run Run

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 Week 28 MTDMy Property 197.65 251.54 260.69 261.05 249.45 226.54 219.83 186.74 233.93 235.14 231.03 225.74 198.83 195.17 180.23 201.97 224.48 224.77 207.81 203.00 208.66 149.31 217.91 220.11 217.28 216.05 218.91 217.44 208.14 217.19 218.79

Comp Set 192.20 246.37 251.98 253.08 222.61 207.22 215.19 186.36 223.50 228.40 223.00 193.47 178.75 192.95 156.10 184.09 196.03 205.73 194.79 186.89 190.40 151.17 193.09 222.07 209.68 207.12 216.91 227.51 203.94 205.60 205.78Market Scale 187.87 241.86 253.18 251.53 217.09 195.21 206.50 177.99 220.59 233.32 225.11 190.16 170.31 182.21 154.61 187.40 207.67 211.11 195.06 181.62 186.56 153.17 200.46 221.97 215.36 198.45 212.53 222.95 203.56 203.64 203.85

RevPAR % Chg Aug Sep Current Run Run6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 Week 28 MTD

My Property 30.0 28.7 24.3 28.6 42.6 33.7 19.3 25.7 23.8 23.1 27.1 37.3 32.7 16.0 42.0 7.1 18.5 19.2 25.0 18.8 17.7 0.6 24.8 52.6 -7.1 33.3 26.5 17.1 19.2 23.8 22.9Comp Set 22.0 22.4 26.1 22.8 16.2 9.8 8.4 14.9 12.5 10.2 6.7 4.7 3.2 7.0 29.9 19.9 6.5 11.4 26.3 19.5 8.6 -3.6 11.0 25.0 32.2 37.7 15.1 11.9 18.0 15.2 12.4

Market Scale 19.5 16.3 15.3 14.6 9.1 7.4 5.4 10.0 10.0 7.0 7.5 6.4 4.4 4.8 20.5 6.8 4.3 5.9 16.6 11.8 6.3 4.5 15.3 24.2 19.3 24.4 14.4 8.5 15.8 11.3 9.1

Index Aug Sep Current Run Run6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 Week 28 MTD

Comp Set 102.8 102.1 103.5 103.1 112.1 109.3 102.2 100.2 104.7 103.0 103.6 116.7 111.2 101.1 115.5 109.7 114.5 109.3 106.7 108.6 109.6 98.8 112.9 99.1 103.6 104.3 100.9 95.6 102.1 105.6 106.3Market Scale 105.2 104.0 103.0 103.8 114.9 116.0 106.5 104.9 106.0 100.8 102.6 118.7 116.8 107.1 116.6 107.8 108.1 106.5 106.5 111.8 111.9 97.5 108.7 99.2 100.9 108.9 103.0 97.5 102.3 106.7 107.3

Index % Chg Aug Sep Current Run Run6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 Week 28 MTD

Comp Set 6.6 5.1 -1.4 4.8 22.7 21.8 10.0 9.4 10.0 11.7 19.1 31.1 28.7 8.4 9.3 -10.7 11.3 7.1 -1.0 -0.6 8.4 4.4 12.5 22.1 -29.7 -3.2 9.9 4.6 1.0 7.5 9.3Market Scale 8.8 10.6 7.8 12.3 30.7 24.5 13.2 14.3 12.5 15.0 18.2 29.0 27.1 10.7 17.8 0.2 13.6 12.6 7.3 6.3 10.7 -3.7 8.2 22.9 -22.2 7.1 10.6 7.9 3.0 11.3 12.6

Rank Aug Sep Current Run Run6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 Week 28 MTD

Your rank 3 of 7 2 of 7 3 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 7 3 of 7 2 of 7 3 of 7 2 of 7 1 of 7 1 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 7 1 of 7 1 of 7 3 of 7 2 of 7 1 of 7 3 of 7 1 of 7 3 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 7 3 of 7 3 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 7RevPAR change 4 of 7 1 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 7 1 of 7 1 of 7 1 of 7 2 of 7 1 of 7 1 of 7 1 of 7 1 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 7 6 of 7 3 of 7 3 of 7 4 of 7 3 of 7 2 of 7 4 of 7 2 of 7 1 of 7 7 of 7 4 of 7 1 of 7 3 of 7 5 of 7 1 of 7 1 of 7

Current Week

Weekly RevPAR ($) - Jun 11, 2006 to Sep 02, 2006

159

179

199

219

239

259

17-Jun 24-Jun 1-Jul 8-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 5-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug 2-Sep

My Property Comp Set Market Scale

Bandwidth Analysis Report

Corporate Reports & Data Files

• Various reports and rawdata files for corporate and regional staff

• Used by headquartersof hotel companies, correlate with internal data

• Lots of different types of data, comparison options,methodologies

Destination Reports

• Monthly and weekly reports generated for nearly 600 CVBs, DMOs, and Local Tourism Organizations

• Variety of templates/pages and different industry segments or user-defined groups

• Provide additional help for for CVBs

1 United Kingdom United StatesBlue Fin Building 735 East Main Street



www.strglobal.com www.str.com

San Diego CVB

For the Month of June 2010 Date Created: Jul 17, 2010

Tab

Table of Contents 1Multi-Segment Market 2Multi-Seg Raw Top 25 Markets 3Trend San Diego, CA 4Trend Port Of San Diego 5Response Port Of San Diego 6Trend San Diego City Properties 7Response San Diego City Propert 8Trend Downtown 9Response Downtown 10Trend Island Area 11Response Island Area 12Trend I-15 Corridor 13Response I-15 Corridor 14Trend La Jolla Coastal 15Response La Jolla Coastal 16Trend Mission Valley, Old Town 17Response Mission Valley 18Trend UTC Area 19Response UTC Area 20TMD Trend Total 21TMD Response Total 22Help 23

Ad-Hoc Reports

• Trends– Select industry segment or

user-defined set of hotels– Displays monthly data for 5,

10, or 20 years, also daily, group/transient, running 12

• Pipeline– Display hotels under con-

struction, projects in planning, existing hotels, and conversion activity

Ad-Hoc Reports

• HOST Reports– Select industry segment or

user-defined set of hotels– Displays revenue and

expense detail, including profitability

• Census Database– Nearly 100 fields of hotel

information, attributes, affiliations, history, …

Publications

• US Hotel Reviews– Monthly & Weekly– Provide overview of industry

performance (US, Scales, Locations, Regions, Top 25 Markets)

• Forecasts– Project future performance

– Available for 25 US and 44 WW markets





STR MONTHLY HOTEL REVIEW

U.S. Hotel Industry Performance for the Month of: June 2010Volume 10, Issue M6

Date Created: July 16, 2010

In this issue:Page:

Translation Table 2

U.S. Hotel Industry at a Glance 3

Performance by Industry Segments 4

Performance In Top 25 Markets 5

Performance by State 6

Glossary 7

WW Publications

• Global Hotel Reviews– Versions for Americas, Europe,

Asia/Pacific, and Mideast/Africa

– Overview of industry performance

• WW Country Reports– Available for 13 countries and country groups

including Canada, UK, Germany, China, India, …

– Detailed performance within a country





Americas Hotel Review

Americas Hotel Industry Performance for the Month of June 2010Volume 10, Issue AM6

Date Created: July 20, 2010

In this issuePage

Global Performance (US Dollars) 2

Country Performance (Local Currency) 3

Country Performance (US Dollars) 4

Market Performance (Local Currency) 5

Market Performance (US Dollars) 6

Market Performance Graphs 7

World Regions 8

Definitions 9

Occupancy ADR RevPAR40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

63

104

66

60

107

64

55

98

54

58

98

5660

102

61

20072008200920102011

Industry PresentationsTotal US - Key Performance Indicators Annual 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011

Occupancy back to 2008 level, ADR ½ way, RevPAR ⅔ way

STR Special Projects

• Projects such as Distribution Channel Study

• Assisting the GSA for Per Diem Rates

• User-defined analyses based on STR data, i.e.: Gulf Oil Spill Impact, Katrina

• Special research for hotel companies, i.e: ramp-up analysis

• Surveys such as Travel Intention Survey and AHLA Hotel Survey

• Work with third parties

How do we look at

hotel data?

Running 12-Month Performance Data

• Actual Values and/or Percent Changes

• Running 12-month data removes seasonal variation

• Historic data allows you to compare performance in different economic cycles

• Look at “peaks” and “troughs”, rates of decline and rebound

• Compare multiple metrics to see relationships

19891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Supply Demand

2010 saw strongest Demand increase in history and sharp Supply decrease

Supply:3.0% (Sep 09)0.6% (Dec 11)

Demand:- 7.0% (Aug

09) 7.8% (Feb 11) 5.0% (Dec 11)

-0.9%

- 4.6%

Total US - Supply and Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average, Jan 1989 to Dec 2011

1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 2011-10

-5

0

5

10Occupancy ADR

Occupancy leveling, ADR returning, very different recovery than 2002!

-3.4%

-6.7%

Occupancy:-9.7% (Sep 09) 6.3% (Apr 11) 4.5% (Dec 11)

ADR:-8.9% (Jan 10) 3.7% (Dec 11)

-4.5%

0.0%

Total US – Occupancy and ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average, Jan 1989 to Dec 2011

1997 1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201150

60

70

80

90

100

110Occupancy (%)ADR ($)

Peak $107.71 Sep 2008

ADR: $97.00 (Apr 10, off $11)$101.68 (Dec 11, regain $5) 39 months so far

Occupancy:54.5% (Jan 10, off 9 pts)60.1% (Dec 11)

Peak 63.5%Jun 2006

41 months to regain $4

Total US - Occupancy & ADR Actual ValuesTwelve Month Moving Average – Jan 1997 to Dec 2011

Major challenge for the industry – making up the lost ADR!

ADR Discounting at Twice the Speed of ADR RecoveryTotal US Actual ADR, 12 Month Moving Average, 2008 - 2011

2008 2009 2010 2011$95

$100

$105

$110

Apr ‘10$97

Sept ‘08$108

Dec ‘11$102

+4.6%

-10%

19 Months19 Months

Seasonally Adjusted Data

• Seasonally adjusted data shows more volatility (quicker response) than Running 12-month data.

• Seasonally adjusted data is calculated using a few simple steps to remove reoccurring seasonal patterns from a time series to better show the underlying trend line. A twelve month moving average is computed and then centered to the middle of the yearly cycle. These averages are then used to calculate “seasonal factors” for each month, which are then applied to the original time series.

1989 1994 1999 2004 200950

55

60

65

70

12MMASA

Dec ‘9162.0

Aug ‘0258.5

June ‘0663.5

Jan ‘1054.5

Aug ‘1159.3

Total US Occupancy – Seasonally Adjusted and 12-monthMoving Average, January 1989 to August 2011

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201270

73

75

78

80

83

85

88

90

Demand

Total US - Actual Monthly Room DemandMillions of Room Nights, Seasonally Adjusted, Jan 1998 to Dec 2011

Demand at record high level for most of 2011!

Raw Monthly Data

• Actual Values and/or Percent Changes

• Shows monthly detail

• Valuable to look at percent changes over time

• Shows seasonal affects of metrics like Occupancy, ADR, or RevPAR

• Interesting perspective to show January to December and graph separate years

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Close up of monthly Supply percent changes for last couple of years

Total US - Monthly Supply Percent ChangeJanuary 2005 to December 2011

Stuck around 3%for almost a year

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec95

97

99

101

103

105

107

109

2007

2008

2009

1 - ADR climbing for all of 2007

2 - ADR climbs, then levels off in 2008 3 - In Oct 2008, ADR drops below the 2007 level

4 - ADR much lower for all of 2009

Total US - Historic ADRs for last three yearsMonthly Numbers, January 2007 – September 2009

2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

Daily Data• Types of daily data:

- Running 28-day data- Weekday/Weekend data- Day of Week data- Weekly data

• Shows performance as of last week

• Shows closer affects of holidays and special events

• Can correlate to business vs. leisure travel

1/11/21/31/41/51/61/71/81/91/101/111/121/131/141/151/161/171/181/191/201/211/221/231/241/251/261/271/281/291/301/312/12/22/32/42/52/62/72/82/92/102/112/122/132/142/152/162/172/182/192/202/212/222/232/242/252/262/272/283/13/23/33/43/53/63/73/83/93/103/113/123/133/143/153/163/173/183/193/203/213/223/233/243/253/263/273/283/293/303/314/14/24/34/44/54/64/74/84/94/104/114/124/134/144/154/164/174/184/194/204/214/224/234/244/254/264/274/284/294/305/15/25/35/45/55/65/75/85/95/105/115/125/135/145/155/165/175/185/195/205/215/225/235/245/255/265/275/285/295/305/316/16/26/36/46/56/66/76/86/96/106/116/126/136/146/156/166/176/186/196/206/216/226/236/246/256/266/276/286/296/307/17/27/37/47/57/67/77/87/97/107/117/127/137/147/157/167/177/187/197/207/217/227/237/247/257/267/277/287/297/307/318/18/28/38/48/58/68/78/88/98/108/118/128/138/148/158/168/178/188/198/208/218/228/238/248/258/268/278/288/298/308/319/11/11/21/31/41/51/61/71/81/91/101/111/121/131/141/151/161/171/181/191/201/211/221/231/241/251/269/281/281/2912/311/11/21/31/41/51/61/71/81/91/101/111/121/131/141/151/161/171/181/191/201/211/221/231/241/251/2610/281/281/291/3012/311/1-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

Demand

ADR

Total US – Daily Demand & ADR Percent ChangeRunning 28 Day Daily Data - January 1 to October 31, 2009

Start ofSummer

Labor Day

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat40

50

60

70

46

58

6364

61

6364

42

51

5657

55

6061

45

54

6060

58

62

64

47

57

63 63

60

64

67

2008 2009 2010 2011

Total US – Occupancy by Day of WeekAnnual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011

2011 Occ above 2008 level on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat90

95

100

105

110

115

$105

$109

$110 $110

$107

$104

$106

$96

$99$100 $100

$98

$96

$98$96

$99$100 $100

$98$96

$98

$99

$102$104 $103

$101

$100

$102

2008 2009 2010 2011

Total US - ADR by Day of Week Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011

Day of Week 2011 vs. 2008 ADR diffs: weekdays - $6-7, weekends - $4

Segmentation Data• Compare Group versus Transient actual metrics and

percent changes

• You can look at monthly, daily, or weekday/weekend data

• Shows relationships between the different segments

- Group Demand can be affected more during downturns than Transient Demand

- Group ADR decreases and recovers more slowly than Transient ADR


30

35

40

45

50

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Transient Occupancy breaks records …Total US Monthly Transient Occupancy – January 2007 to December 2011

Group/Transient data for upper end hotels (Lux, Upper Up, top ⅓ indeps)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec$140

$150

$160

$170

$180

$190

$200

$210

$2202007 2008 2009 2010 2011

But Transient ADR is notTotal US Monthly Transient ADR – January 2007 to December 2011

Above 2009 & 2010 levels, but not above 2007 & 2008


15

20

25

30

35

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Group Occupancy above 2010, but below 2007 levelsTotal US Monthly Group Occupancy – January 2007 to December 2011

Above 2009 & 2010 levels, closing in on 2007 & 2008 levels

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec$130

$140

$150

$160

$170

$180

$190

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Group ADR improving, but below 2007 & 2008 levels Total US Monthly Group ADR – January 2007 to December 2011

Above 2009 & 2010 levels, still below 2007 & 2008

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

Group Demand

Transient Demand

Total US - Group & Transient Demand % Change Running 28 Day – January 31, 2008 to March 28, 2010

Oct 2008July 2009

-20%

10%Jan 2009 Mar 17

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

1/31/09 4/1/09 5/31/09 7/30/09 9/28/08 11/27/08 1/26/09 3/27/09 5/26/09 7/25/09

Group ADR

Transient ADR

Total US - Group & Transient Absolute ADR Running 28 Day - January 31, 2008 – August 15, 2009

Group ADRsurpassesTransient ADR

Occupancy ADR-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

-5.8

-16.1

2.0

-16.0

WeekdayWeekend

Total US - Transient Occupancy & ADR % ChangeWeekday / Weekend (without Sundays) – September 26, YTD


Transient occupancymuch less impactedon weekends

ADR almost the same?

Occupancy ADR-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

-22.8

-5.2

-16.5

-5.0

WeekdayWeekend

Total US - Group Occupancy & ADR % ChangeWeekday / Weekend (without Sundays) – September 26, YTD


Group occupancy less impacted on weekend

ADR almost the same?

Pipeline Data• Types of data:

- Hotel openings and closings

- Hotels under construction and in planning over time; or by scale, brand, or market

- Attrition, abandonment, deferrals, and duration

- Changes to existing supply, conversion activity chain to indep, scale to scale, or brand to brand

• Provides critical perspective on the future and better understanding of the past

Total US - Closed HotelsAnnual 2004 through 2011

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

200

400

600

800

1000

725

841

686

387

291 288

149

373

Number of Hotels

Change between peak Openings in 2005 and 2010 = -82%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

20

40

60

80

100

50.2

65.2

52.6

31.7

23.6 24.6

14.3

31

Number of Rooms (in thousands)

65,242 rooms in 2005 to 14,265 rooms in 2010

Huge decrease in closed hotels leading up to 2010, small resurge in 2011

Total US - Opened HotelsAnnual 2004 through 2011

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

633

746

840

1,045

1,3971,348

672

376

Number of Hotels

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

60.9

74.183.1

101

153.6146.3

73.6

38.7

Number of Rooms (in thousands)

153,623 rooms in 2008 38,667 rooms in 2010

Continued decreasein new development in 2011

Significant drop in number of new opens in 2010 and 2011

Q4 01

Q1 02

Q2 02

Q3 02

Q4 02

Q1 03

Q2 03

Q3 03

Q4 03

Q1 04

Q2 04

Q3 04

Q4 04

Q1 05

Q2 05

Q3 05

Q4 05

Q1 06

Q2 06

Q3 06

Q4 06

Q1 07

Q2 07

Q3 07

Q4 07

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

In Construction

In Final Planning/Planning

303.7

97211312

“Accelerated Deceleration” On All Counts

Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline

4.2

4.6

5.3

5.4

6.0

6.0

6.0

10.8

13.5

4.0

0 5 10 15 20

Los Angeles

Atlanta

Phoenix

San Antonio

Dallas

Orlando

Houston

DC

Las Vegas

New York

Top 10 Markets – Rooms Under ConstructionFebruary 2009 – in Thousands

5.4

5.6

6.4

6.7

6.8

7.8

7.8

14.4

15.5

5.3

0 5 10 15 20

Candlewood

Residence Inn

Marriott

Courtyard

Springhill Suites

Fairfield

Comfort Inn

Hilton GI

HI Express

Hampton Inn

Top 10 Brands – Rooms Under ConstructionFebruary 2009 – in Thousands

STR Pipeline Attrition RateLong Term Average (2002 – 2009)

PrePlanning Planning Final Planning Under Construction0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

24%

46%

79%92%

76%

54%

21%8%

Opened Abandoned

Total United States - Abandoned Rooms by MonthFebruary 2008 – February 2009

95069

86340

93219

104,131

94,963

88537

82912

71188

78371

695016637564222

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09

97,9

Total US - Hotel Conversions: Chain → Independent1990 through 2008

239

402

431 433

640661

619645

589583

429

537

328320

358

433

389

334311

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


HOST (Profit & Loss) Data• Types of P&L data:

- Additional revenue accounts, total revenue, F&B

- Expense accounts, i.e. payroll, marketing, A&G, …

- Profitability measures: GOPPAR, TRevPAR

• Metrics:

- Total Dollars

- Ratio to Sales

- Amount per Occupied or Available Room

• Compare over years or different types of hotels

Total US - Estimated Total Revenue and ProfitabilityAnnual Numbers from 2001 to 2010

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

20

40

60

80

100

103.5 102.6 105.3113.7

122.7133.4

139.4 140.6

127.2 127.7

16.2 14.2 12.8 16.722.6 26.6 28.0 25.8

16.0 18.0

37.1 35.7 35.0 36.6 38.8 41.3 41.338.2

34.0 35.3

Revenue Profit GOP%

GO

P %

Tota

l R

even

ue

and

Pro

fit

in B

illi

on

s

Additional Data & Perspectives• Hotel Census statistics - property and room counts by

various attributes

• Mapping data - location of hotels or performance

• Distributions – numbers of properties in ranges

• “Winners & Losers” – based upon multiple metrics

• Peaks, valleys, and change – high, low & difference

• Sellout nights – number of props at occupancy levels

• Compare hotel performance to economic data

• Booking channel data

Maryland Hotel Census Statistics by Brand, July 2009 YTD

Chain Census Props Census Rooms Sample Props Sample Rooms

Marriott 10 3823 10 3823

Holiday Inn 15 3038 15 3038

Comfort Inn 27 2925 27 2925

Courtyard 18 2649 17 2558

Hampton Inn 22 2555 22 2555

Hilton 8 2464 8 2464

Sheraton Hotel 8 2376 8 2376

Days Inn 22 2270 22 2270

Best Western 18 2059 13 1600

Gaylord Entertainment 1 2000 1 2000

Residence Inn 15 1861 15 1861

Holiday Inn Express Hotel 18 1675 18 1675

Hilton Garden Inn 11 1519 11 1519

Quality Inn 12 1515 12 1515

Red Roof Inn 11 1312 11 1312

Hyatt 3 1278 3 1278

Destination Resorts - Properties: 321 & Rooms: 158,429

WW STAR Participation

Lesser participation in Africa and parts of S. America and Mideast

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

-40% -7.5 --10.0

0 -2.5

25%

Total United States ADR Percent ChangeNumber of Properties - June 2009 YTD

Industry average: - 8.7

39.6

10

43.2

17.1

21

15.2

40.8

23

7.2

13.314.4

46.0

26.324.8

42.9

15.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

Occ+/Adr+ Occ+/Adr- Occ-/Adr+ Occ-/Adr-

2007 YE Q1 2008Q2 2008 Q3 2008

Total United States – Occupancy/ADR Winners & LosersYear End 2007 – Quarterly 2008


Peak Valley $-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300 $308

$213

$167

$133$127

$103$101$85$85

$68$59

$45

LuxUpUpUpUpMidMidEcon

$141 difference

$80

$40

$30$26$18$16

$26 $17$22

Recent ADR Compression by Scale : Threat or Opportunity?US Chain Scales, Actual ADRs, Peak (2008) vs. Valley (2009-10)

200

8-03

200

8-04

200

8-03

200

8-08

200

8-08

200

8-08

200

9-07

200

9-08

200

9-12

200

9-12

200

9-12

201

0-01

Compression especially at top end, differences narrowed, trade-up easier

Average Number of Days Sold OutTotal US, Annual Numbers by Day of Week, 2000-2005


00 01 02 03 04 05 00 01 02 03 04 05 00 01 02 03 04 05 00 01 02 03 04 05 00 01 02 03 04 05 00 01 02 03 04 05 00 01 02 03 04 050

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F

Nominal ADR

2000 / 2007 Grown by CPI

2000 ADR Grown By CPI

Total US Actual ADRs and Inflation Adjusted ADR, 2000 – 2013F2000–2010 CPI from bls.gov, 2011–2013 CPI from Blue Chip Econ Inds

$85

$101

$104

$85

$107 $109

$107

$117

Inflation Adjusted ADRs Currently Well Out Of Reach

2007 ADR Grown By CPI

Demand Share by Channel for Total USAnnual 2009 & 2010 (Percent of Total Room Nights)

OTA9.8

Brand .com16.1

GDS8

CRS/Voice13.8

Property Direct /Other52.3

2009OTA10.7

Brand .com

16.4

GDS8.3

CRS /Voice13.2

Property Direct /Other51.4

2010

Small YOY increases in OTA, Brand.com, GDSSmall YOY decreases in CRS/Voice, Prop Direct/Other

Comparative Analyses• Compare various geographic segments:

- Continents - Sub-continents - Countries

- Regions - States - Markets

- Tracts - Counties - Zips

• Compare various non-geographic segments for a specific area:

- Scale - Class - Location

• Compare performance for various points in time, i.e.: downturns and recoveries

Americas – Occupancy Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – Jan 1999 to Feb 2010

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009fmamjjasond2010-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Central Am.

North Am.

Caribbean

Caribbean (May, -7.8)

North Am. (August, -9.6)

Central Am. (November, -17.2)


-16.0 -14.0 -12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0

-40.0

-35.0

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

Selected European CitiesOccupancy & ADR % Change Year End 2009

AD

R %

OCC %

ParisHelsinki

Amsterdam

Madrid

Budapest

Prague

Athens

Moscow

Stockholm

Rome

Berlin

London

Copenhagen

ZurichBrussels

US Regions – Occupancy, ADR, & RevPAR % ChgAnnual 2009

Occupancy: ▼ -8.3%ADR: ▼ -10.5%

RevPAR: ▼ -18.1 %

Occupancy: ▼ -10.8%ADR: ▼ -12.8%

RevPAR: ▼ -22.1 %

Occupancy: ▼ -7.7%ADR: ▼ -3.0%

RevPAR: ▼ -10.3 %

Occupancy: ▼ -13.4%

ADR: ▼ -5.2%

RevPAR: ▼ -17.9 %


RevPAR: ▼ -15.8 %


RevPAR: ▼ -11.3 %


RevPAR: ▼ -13.9 %

Occupancy: ▼ -7.4%ADR: ▼ -13.1%

RevPAR: ▼ -19.5 %


RevPAR: ▼ -13.9 %


TOTAL USOccupancy: ▼ -8.7%

ADR: ▼ -8.8%

RevPAR: ▼ -16.8 %

Fort Walton, FL

Myrtle Beach, SC

Niagara Falls, NY

Poconos, PA

Branson, MO

Williamsburg, VA

Asheville, NC

Gatlinburg

-18 -15 -12 -9 -6 -3 0

-13

-14.3

-8.7

-9.4

-3.9

-14.5

-13.2

-0.2

Comparative Gatlinburg Tracts - RevPAR %Chg December 2009 YTD


the best!

Total United States by ScaleYear To Date April 2009

Mid w/F&B 9%

Mid w/o F&B 18%

Economy 20%

Independent 43%

Upscale 6%

Upper Upscale 3%Luxury 1%

Mid w/F&B 11%

Mid w/o F&B 17%

Economy 16%

Independent 31%

Upscale 10%

Upper Upscale 13%Luxury 2%

Properties Room Supply

Mid w/o F&B 15%

Economy 7%

Independent 29%

Mid w/F&B 8%

Upscale 13%

Upper Upscale 22%

Luxury 6%

Room Revenue


Jan 07

Feb 07

Mar 07

Apr 07

May 07

Jun 07

Jul 07

Aug 07

Sep 07

Oct 07

Nov 07

Dec 07

Jan 08

Feb 08

Mar 08

Apr 08

May 08

Jun 08

Jul 08

Aug 08

Sep 08

Oct 08

Nov 08

Dec 08

Jan 09

Feb 09

Mar 09

Apr 09

May 09

Jun 09

Jul 09

Aug 09

Sep 09

Oct 09

Nov 09

Dec 09

Jan 10

Feb 10

-12.0

-8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

Lux/Upper Up/Upscale

Mid With/Mid Without/Economy

Total US

Total US Upper vs Lower End Demand % ChangeD

eman

d %

Ch

ang

e

Urban Suburban Airport Interstate Resort Small Town

-10

-5

0

5

10

-1-3 -3 -3

-5

-2

-4

-7 -7 -6 -6-7

89 8

65 55

64 4 5 4

2008 2009 2010 2011

Locations – Demand Percent ChangeAnnual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011

Urban, Suburban, and Airport big winners in 2010

Top 25 Markets - ADR Percent Change, Annual 2011

Atlanta, GA

Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA

Washington, DC-MD-VA

Tampa-St Pe-tersburg, FL

Houston, TXDetroit, MI

San Diego, CAPhoenix, AZ

St Louis, MO-ILDenver, COOrlando, FL

Dallas, TX

Total United States

Seattle, WABoston, MAChicago, IL

Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA

Minneapolis-St Paul, MN-WI

New Orleans, LANew York, NY

Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA

Philadelphia, PA-NJ

Miami-Hialeah, FL

Nashville, TNOahu Island, HI

San Francisco/San

Mateo, CA

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Wide disparity between top 25 markets

Top 25 Markets vs. Rest of US - Quarterly RevPar % Change1st Quarter 2007 – 2nd Quarter 2009

5.97.4

2.5 2.80.8

-10.7

-19.8

-22.6

-2.2

7.96.4

-17.2-16.1

-9.0

0.41.7

4.65.65.24.9

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09

Top 25

Rest of U.S.

Top 25 rise faster butalso fall farther

Total US – Post-Recession Demand Percent Change12 Month Moving Average - From Start of Recession, by Month

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6% Start: 7/90 (to 3/91) Start: 3/01 (to 11/01) Start: 12/07 (to today)

Three very different economic cycles

How do others use

STR data?

STR provides a great deal of data for academic research

A partial list follows …

Examples• Relationship Between Product Quality and RevPAR (1999)

• Acquisitions, Openings, and Promotions (1999)

• Developing the Fill Picture on Hotel Industry Averages (2001)

• The Influence of Gasoline-price Fluctuations on US Lodging Demand (2002)

• A Case Study of Virginia Beach Hotels (2002)

• Impact of NFL Games on Lodging Industry Revenue (2003)

• Hotel Pricing in a Networked World (2003)

• A Comparison of Forecasting Methods for Hotel Revenue Management (2003)

More examples• The Role of Brand Affiliation in Hotel Market Value (2006)

• Revenue Management with Limited Demand Information (2008)

• Relationship of Sales and Marketing Expense to Hotel Performance (2008)

• Competitive Hotel Pricing in Uncertain Times (2009)

• Falling Industry Profits (2009)

• Lodging Demand for Urban Hotels in Major Metropolitan Markets

• Why Discounting Doesn’t Work

• An Examination of Revenue Management in Relation to Hotels’ Pricing Strategies

Even more examples• The Agglomeration Conundrum: How Co-location Helps Some

Hotels and Hurts Others

• Why Discounting Still Doesn’t Work: A Hotel Pricing Update

• Revenue Management in US Hotels: 2001-2005

• Pricing for Revenue Enhancement in Asian and Pacific Region Hotels: A Study of Relative Pricing Strategies

• Product Tiers and ADR Clusters: Integrating Two Methods for Determining Hotel Competitive Sets

• Hotel Rebranding and Rescaling

• Strategic Hotel Development and Positioning: the Effects of Revenue Drivers on Profitability

Performance of Groups of Hotels Over Time

• Could be some sort of impact analysis, such as weather related or a special event (hurricane, oil spill, Red Tide, Occupy movement)

• Could be one or more sets of hotels, also possibly a “control” group

• Possible to define groups by standard industry fields (single or combinations) or based upon specific hotels. You may need a file to define the groups.

• STR can produce monthly or daily data for each group

Correlating STR data with 3rd parties

• There are many situations where people want to correlate the STR performance or P&L data to the data from another organizations

• Here are a few examples of the 3rd party data:- Sustainability/green certification- Customer satisfaction or review data

• Researchers would like to compare the third party data to a metric such as RevPAR or profitability

• Talk to us more about the options and steps

We look forward to working together!

Steve Hood615-824-8664, ext. 3315

[email protected]

hotel industry research – an str perspective the share center supporting hotel-related academic...

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