hot topics in healthcare valuation
DESCRIPTION
PYA Principal Carol Carden presented "Hot Topics in Healthcare Valuation" at the TSCPA Southeastern Forensic & Valuation Services Conference.TRANSCRIPT
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Page 0Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Hot Topics in Healthcare
Valuation
Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Business Valuation, Forensic & Litigation Services Conference
October 28, 2014
Carol Carden, CPA/ABV, ASA, CFE
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Page 1Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Agenda
Understanding the context
Avoiding pitfalls in projecting cash flows
Sources of industry data
Common approaches and application
Latest trends in industry and M&A activity
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Page 2Date: October 28, 2014
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Understanding the Context
What makes a healthcare valuation
different than any other company?
• Highly regulated environment
• Less access to market data
• Significant fluctuation in trends between years –
constantly changing and evolving
• Complex interplay between patients, providers,
insurers and the government – can be tricky to
get your arms around
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Page 3Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Understanding the Context
Stark Regulations
Impacts entities in
which a physician
has an ownership
interest
Anti-kickback
Prohibits the
consideration of
the value or
volume of
referrals
IRS
Comes into play
with not-for-profit
entities
Regulatory Environments
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Page 4Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Understanding the Context
Fair Market Value
the value in arm’s-length transactions, consistent with the general market
value
General Market Value
the price that an asset would bring as the result of bona fide bargaining
between well-informed buyers and sellers who are not otherwise in a
position to generate business for the other party, or the compensation that
would be included in a service agreement as the result of bona fide
bargaining between well-informed parties to the agreement who are not
otherwise in a position to generate business for the other party, on the date
of acquisition of the asset or at the time of the service agreement
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Page 5Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Understanding the Context
Buyers do not want
to chance
inheriting liability
related to
malpractice and
billing errors
Important to
understand when
projecting and
adjusting balance
sheet
Impacts analysis if
market
transactions are
incorporated into
analysis
Impacts working
capital projection
Healthcare
transactions are
generally
structured as asset
sales:
Deal
Structure
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Page 6Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Projecting Cash Flows
Common Mistakes in Healthcare
xxxx
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Page 7Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Projecting Cash Flows
Contributing Factors to Unrealistic Growth
Rates
Analysis of the payer mix
is a must!
Identification of industry
reimbursement trends
Failure to analyze capacity
constraints
What does perpetuity
really mean?
Failure to assess referral
sources
Concentrated in a few
individuals?
Where are they in their career
life cycle?
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Page 8Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Projecting Cash Flows
Analysis of Reimbursement Trends
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Page 9Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Healthcare Reform
Healthcare Reform
ACOs
Bundled Payments
Incentives for
Primary Care
Increase in Insured Population
Medical Home
Models
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Page 10Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Projecting Cash Flows
Consideration of Post-Transaction Factors
Bear in mind the definition of FMV, particularly as the
regulators define it
There is more at stake in
healthcare, up to and including
criminal charges!
Be careful about volume assumptions as well as
expense efficiencies and contract improvements
For physician practice valuations, post transaction
compensation must factor into your analysis
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Page 11Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Projecting Cash Flows
• Increased regulation
• Possible criminal penalties
• Concentration of referral
sources or payers
• Technology can become
outdated very quickly
Inadequate Assessment of Risk Factors
The more successful a company becomes, the more it shows up
on the radar screen for changes – just ask the imaging industry
=
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Page 12Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Sources for Industry Data
• MedPac Report
• Medicare Proposed and Final Physician Fee
Schedule
• Stock analysts reports for certain segments
• MGMA
• Intellimarker Survey (for ASCs)
• Ingenix (for hospitals)
Reimbursement Trends
Expense Benchmarking
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Page 13Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Sources for Industry Data
• First Research
• Industry associations such as
the American College of Cardiology,
National Cancer Institute,
American College of Radiology
• Irving Levin Healthcare M&A Report
Industry Analysis
Market Transactions
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Page 14Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Common Approaches
• Used when company is not profitable enough
to result in a value greater than tangible
assets
• Used currently for many physician practice
valuations because hospitals are not paying
for goodwill or other intangible assets
because profits of the practice are generally
consumed in the form of compensation to the
physician
Asset Approach
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Page 15Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Common Approaches
Can be complicated as many
smaller healthcare companies
are on a cash basis
Very common for many working
capital assets to be excluded,
so important to understand the
terms of the acquisition
Asset Approach (Continued)
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Page 16Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Economics of a Physician Practice
Practice staff expenses
Practice supply expenses
Practice overhead expenses
Collections
Therefore:
Use of the asset approach is common
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Page 17Date: October 28, 2014
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Common Approaches
Market Approach
• Not used very commonly for healthcare transactions
• Do not have publicly traded companies in many segments
– Even when they exist, it is difficult to translate a business with multiple segments across multiple geographies to a single location, single specialty company
• Private transaction data is scarce
• Healthcare delivery is so market-specific, it is difficult to translate transaction data from one market to another
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Page 18Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Illustration of Market Approach
AMSURG ASC
LOCATIONS Many Usually one
GEOGRAPHIC SPAN National Usually one
ACCESS TO CAPITAL Extensive Limited
ECONOMIES OF SCALE Extensive Very limited
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Page 19Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Common Approaches
Income Approach
• Used most frequently for healthcare companies other than practices
• Critical to appropriately project cash flows and assess risk
• Educational hurdles:
– Tax effecting
– Control over the referrals
• This approach is not without regulatory risk – OIG advisory opinion
not really in favor of income approach
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Page 20Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Common Approaches
Income Entity/Common Approach(based on my experience and in order of preference)
Asset Income Market
Physician Practice + + (if there are ancillary
services or significant
physician extenders)
-
Hospital + + +Imaging Center + + +Dialysis Clinic + + +
Cancer Center + + maybe
Hospital/Physician Joint Venture - + -
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Page 21Date: October 28, 2014
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Trends in Industry and M&A Activity
– Single largest acquisition trend right now
– Involves primary care & specialty practices
– Generally only paying for tangible assets
– Post-transaction compensation is a key
assumption
Hospital/
Physician
Joint
Ventures
Hospital
Acquisition of
Physician
Practices
• Generally involves ASCs
• Likelihood of cash distribution is a key driver
• Many are structured as pass-through
entities so this becomes an important
component of the valuation
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Page 22Date: October 28, 2014
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Trends in Industry and M&A Activity
• Many are structured as clinical co-management
agreements
• An alternative to an equity joint venture
• Involve specialty service lines of the hospital such as
cardiology and orthopedics where the hospital needs a
deeper level of clinical involvement
• Easier to unwind than equity joint ventures
Management Agreements
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Page 23Date: October 28, 2014
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Trends in Industry and M&A Activity
•
• •
•
•
•What about
healthcare
reform?
Current thinking…
is that it will further
spur consolidation in
the industry between
hospitals, physician,
and ancillary
providers, such as
imaging centers
At a minimum…
it will make projection
of revenues
significantly more
difficult due to the
bundling of payments
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Page 24Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Enactment of provisions of the PPACA is expected to increase
the number of covered individuals by 32 million.
By 2019, primary care visits are predicted to increase between 15.07 million to 24.26 million.
Assuming stable levels of physicians’ productivity, the
increased demand would require between 4,307 to 6,940 primary
care physicians.
Trends in Industry and M&A ActivityEffect of PPACA on Primary Care
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Page 25Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
Trends in Industry and M&A Activity
Care delivery will likely
shift to
mid-level practitioners
changing the cost
structure of practices
Work relative value unit
assignments likely to
increase over the next
few years
Critical to the success of
an ACO or bundled
payment initiative
Will likely be a shortage
by 2014 – even more so
than currently
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Page 26Date: October 28, 2014
Prepared for Tennessee Society of Certified Public Accountants
22 of the original organizations from the
Pioneer ACO program remain; represents
approximately 699,000 covered lives
As of January 2014, 351 ACOs provided care
to 5.3 million beneficiaries (up from 250 a year
ago)
Approximately 250 commercial ACOs
representing approximately 12.4 million
covered lives
Trends in Industry and M&A ActivityACOs – Where Are They Now?
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Page 27Date: October 28, 2014
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Five-year
initiative
launched
January
31, 2013
Private
payers
already
using
bundled
payments
Based on Medicare ACE Demonstration Project – free range
ACO
Single payment for defined group of services within
specified episode of care
Pricing based on discount of payer’s historic total cost
Gain-sharing incentives
Trends in Industry and M&A ActivityBundled Payments for Care
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Page 28Date: October 28, 2014
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Trends in Industry and M&A ActivityImpact on valuations
We will be living in the “straddle” for several years
Benchmark compensation data will take 2 – 3
years to catch-up to changes in the industry and
will, therefore, not be as meaningful
As appraisers, the “art” part of our analysis will
become more prominent and we will have to
develop new approaches and be prepared to
defend them
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Page 29Date: October 28, 2014
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Questions
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Page 30Date: October 28, 2014
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Contact Information
Carol Carden, CPA/ABV, ASA, CFE
Principal
Pershing Yoakley & Associates, P.C.
(865) 673-0844
www.pyapc.com
Twitter: @carolcardenpya