BUSINESSDYNAMICS HOSPITAL FLOW MANAGEMENTQuestions 1-3: Discussed in class SFD for the given problem4. Suppose no that there are to competing proposals !ith the same costs" to solve the aiting list problem: a. #n e$tension of the capacit% of aftercare ith &'' beds hich could be operational after () ee*s+ b. #n e$tension of the capacit% of the hospital ith (&' beds, hich could onl% be operational after &( ee*s. S*etch the behavior of both options over time. -hich of these to measures is most suitable to reduce the aiting list. Current behaviourWait!i"t #Pre$o%" Patient"& Ho"%ita! Ca%a'it( )*++, A-ter'are Ca%a'it( ).++, The nu/ber o- Pre$O%" #Wait!i"t& in'rea"e" 0ith ti/e1/ption #: A-ter'are Ca%a'it( ).+++2STEP#3++456& /ption 0: Ho"%ita! Ca%a'it( ) *++2STEP#3++435&O%tion A i" not e7e'tive in re8u'in9 the 0ait!i"t 0herea" in O%tion B the 0ait!i"t "tart"to 8e'!ine a" "oon a" the in'rea"e8 ho"%ita! 'a%a'it( ta:e" e7e't1In'rea"in9 ;A-ter'are Ca%'it(< 0i!! !ea8 to a 9reater =o0 throu9h a-ter'are1 Hen'e the nu/ber o- %eo%!e 0ho 0i!! not re'over an8 0ou!8 be re8ire'te8 ba': to the 0ait!i"t 0i!! in'rea"e a" the re'over( %er'enta9e re/ain" "a/e an8 overa!! O%tion A ha" no bene>'ia! e7e't on the 0ait!i"t a" "ho0n above1-aitlist ) Patient Arriva! ?ate$O%" A8/it ?ate/ps #dmit 1ate ) Min#@Pre$O%" Patient"@4Ho"%ita! Ca%a'it(AAvera9e A8/in Pro' Ti/e be-ore A8/i""ion $ O%" Patient 2 Patient Di"'har9e ?ate&The 0ait!i"t i" !i/ite8 b( the O%" A8/it ?ate 0hi'h in turn i" !i/ite8 b( the ho"%ita! 'a%a'it( in our 'a"e1 So 0ith an in'rea"e in the Ho"%ita! Ca%a'it( the 0ait!i"t 8e'rea"e" a" "ho0n above1&. 2hoosing the best e$tension, ho large should the most appropriate e$tension be to eliminate the aiting list ithin ( %ears. Se!e'tin9 O%tion BB In'rea"in9 Ho"%ita! Ca%a'it(4 ta:in9 e7e't -ro/ 35 0ee:"Ho"%ita! Ca%a'it( ) *++2STEP#C3+435&I- Ho"%ita! Ca%a'it( i" in'rea"e8 b( C3+ be8" a-ter 35 0ee:" the 0ait!i"t re8u'e" to it" "tea8( "tate #/ini/u/& va!ue in 5 (ear" #.+D 0ee:"&1). 0ased on previous recommendations, the 0oard of Directors of the hospital has decided to go for the capacit% e$tension of the hospital ith 4'' beds that ill onl% be operational after one %ear. Simulate thed%namics of this option over e$actl% 3 %ears. S*etch the e3ect on the aiting list !pre--4ops on the aiting list before admission". Ho"%ita! Ca%a'it( ) *++2STEP#D++435&I- the ho"%ita! 'a%a'it( i" in'rea"e8 to D++ the ti/e ta:en -or the 0ait!i"t to re8u'e to it" /ini/u/ va!ue 8e'rea"e" to about *+ 0ee:"15. 6he 0oard of Directors as*s %ou to perform a number of additional anal%ses to ta*e into account some of man% uncertainties. 6he referredpre--4ops, the fraction of recovered patients ith aftercare and the fraction of recovered patients ithout aftercare are according to the 0oard of Directors particularl% uncertain. 7ist at least 3 other uncertain variables. Other Un'ertain variab!e"B.1 Avera9e Ho"%ita! ?e"i8en'e Ti/e51 Fra'tion o- re'overe8 %atient" 0ith a-ter'areC1 Fra'tion o- re'overe8 %atient" 0ithout a-ter'are8. 9anuall% and separatel% test the in:uence of folloing variables ithin the indicated un--4certaint% bounds: ; 1eferred pre--4ops beteen )'' and 1''' patients per ee* ; Fraction of recovered patients ith aftercare beteen 1 ( 3 4 & ) 5?el% ref. @re-/ps Aalue)'' )1' )(' )4' 5'' 5&' 8''The 0ait!i"t 'urve 'han9e" "ha%e -ro/ 8e'!inin9 to ri"in9 aroun8 ;Ne0!( re-1 Pre$O%"< ) 65+1 The 9ra%h 0a"nEt '!ear 0hen a!! the run" 0ere "ho0n to9ether hen'e ?un" .$D have been "ho0n "e%arate!(1b. The -o!!0in9 9ra%h "ho0 the e7e't o- 'han9e in ;Fra'tion o- re'overe8 %atient" 0ith a-ter'are< on the 0ait!i"tB1un > 1 ( 3 4 &Fraction of recovered patients