horizon report 2012: university of new hampshire discussion
TRANSCRIPT
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The 2012 Horizon Report :
a University System of New
Hampshire discussionApril 20, 2012
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The limits of emergent
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Futuresmethods
Extrapolation Environment
al scan Futures
market Scenarios Delphi
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Caveat: wild cards and Black Swans
Extraordinary political or economic event
Technology breakthrough (ex: AI)
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iPhone Apps Store downloads1.April 2009 1.0 billion2.July 2009 1.5 billion3.Sept 2009 2.0 billion4.Dec 2009 …?
-works with data sources-can lead to more data-gathering, metrics
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Facebooks’ ascent
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Tweak to contexts
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What are some metrics you use for
extrapolation?
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Environmental scanning
Multiple sources
Should belongitudinal
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Scan 2.0: crowdsourcing Social
networks Iterated
resource feeds
Scanner contributes content
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Dynamic social media venue
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Is there a higher education bubble?
Digital humanities on the rise
Adjunctification continues
Alternative online learning
Textbooks going ebook+
Scholarly publication and/versus open access
Higher education budgets
Computer hardware ecology
Has the World Wide Web hit its limit?
January-Feb 2012 scan sample
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Augmented reality mainstreamed
Social organization through social media
Some tuition freezes, cuts
Intergenerational tensions: public + private
International liberal education
Maker culture on campus
High-speed trading
Global economic stresses
Rise of natural gas
March 2012 scan sample
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Next 20 years? Screening Interacting Sharing Flowing Accessing Generating
-Kevin Kelly
Pattern recognition:Deductions from scanning
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Pick one story from the past month which seems to
suggest a developing trend.
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Futures markets Propositions in time Shares to be traded
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Will 25 or more institutions be
participating in Flickr’s Creative Commons
project by March 26, 2009?
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Futures markets Quant. +
Qual. Affordances of
play
Continuous Distributed
feedback
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Which alternative to PowerPoint will become
most widely used on campuses?
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Scenarios Stories about futures Event and response Creativity
Roles and times Emergent practices
and patterns
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Scenarios
Build upon other methods: Select drivers –
environmental scan Identify trends – Delphi
reports Test trends - extrapolation Test propositions –
prediction markets
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Delphi
Assemble experts
Probe for opinions
Rank and distill ideas
Reiterate
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Example: the Horizon Report “[A] comprehensive review and analysis of
research, articles, papers, blogs, and interviews
[We] discussed existing applications and brainstormed new ones.
A key criterion was the potential relevance of the topics to teaching, learning, research, and creative expression.
Iteration, ranking, reiteration, reranking”
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Key Trends People expect to be able to work, learn, and study whenever and wherever they want to.
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The technologies we use are increasinglycloud-based, and our notions of IT supportare decentralized.
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The world of work is increasingly collaborative,driving changes in the way student projects arestructured.
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The abundance of resources and relationships made easily accessible via the Internet is increasingly challenging us to revisit our roles aseducators.
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Education paradigms are shifting to includeonline learning, hybrid learning and collaborative models.
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There is a new emphasis in the classroom on more challenge-based and active learning.
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Significant Challenges
Economic pressures and new models of education are bringing unprecedented competition to the traditional models of higher education.
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Appropriate metrics of evaluation lag the emergence of new scholarly forms of authoring, publishing, and researching.
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Digital media literacy continues its rise inimportance as a key skill in every discipline and profession.
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Institutional barriers present formidablechallenges to moving forward in a constructiveway with emerging technologies.
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New modes of scholarship are presenting significant challenges for libraries and university collections, how scholarship is documented, and the business models to support these activities.
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NITLEhttp://nitle.org
Technehttp://blogs.nitle.org/
NITLE prediction markets gamehttp://markets.nitle.org/
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