CLIMATE CHANGE

Some _________________ gases occur naturally in the atmosphere, while others result

from human activities. Naturally occurring _____________ gases include water vapor,

carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. Certain human activities, however,

add to the levels of most of these naturally occurring gases:

A. Carbon dioxide B. _________________

Emitted during the production and transport of coal, ____________, and oil. Methane

emissions also result from the decomposition of organic wastes in municipal __________

landfills, and the raising of livestock.

C. Nitrous oxide

D. Hexafluorocabons (_______), perfluorocarbons (_________), and sulfur hexa- flouride (_______)

These compounds are potent _______________ gases. In addition to having high global

warming potentials, SF6 and many HFC's and PFC's have extremely long atmospheric

lifetimes, resulting in their essentially irreversible ________________in the atmosphere. Sulfur hexafluoride, itself is the most _________ greenhouse gas the IPCC has evaluated.

Generated in a variety of ___________processes.

2. _________ levels in the atmosphere have risen substantially

What Do We Know?

According to an ongoing ________________ analysis conducted by scientists at NASA's

Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), the ______________________________ on

Earth has increased by about 0.8° Celsius (1.4° Fahrenheit)________________1880.

The ________ average global temperature ranked as the warmest on record. The 10

warmest years on record have all occurred since _________ except _________.

___________ was the only, and the warmest year, of the last century based on proxy

temperature data to be included in this list.

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in their 2014 release contained several Summaries for Policy Makers (SPM’s)

SPM 1 – Observed Changes and their Causes“Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems.”SPM 1.1 Observed changes in the climate systemWarming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.

SPM 1.2 Causes of climate change

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have increased since the pre-industrial era, driven largely by economic and population growth, and are now higher than ever. This has led to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide that are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. Their effects, together with those of other anthropogenic drivers, have been detected throughout the climate system and are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.

SPM 1.3 Impacts of climate changeIn recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. Impacts are due to observed climate change, irrespective of its cause, indicating the sensitivity of natural and human systems to changing climate.

SPM 1.4 Extreme eventsChanges in many extreme weather and climate events have been observed since about 1950. Some of these changes have been linked to human influences, including a decrease in cold temperature extremes, an increase in warm temperature extremes, an increase in extreme high sea levels and an increase in the number of heavy precipitation events in a number of regions.

SPM 2. Future Climate Changes, Risks and ImpactsContinued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lastingchanges in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe,pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems. Limiting climate change would require substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions which, together with adaptation, can limit climate change risks.

SPM 2.1 Key drivers of future climateCumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late21st century and beyond. Projections of greenhouse gas emissions vary over a wide range, depending on both socio-economic development and climate policy.

SPM 2.2 Projected changes in the climate systemSurface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all assessed emissionscenarios. It is very likely that heat waves will occur more often and last longer, and thatextreme precipitation events will become more intense and frequent in many regions. Theocean will continue to warm and acidify, and global mean sea level to rise.

SPM 2.3 Future risks and impacts caused by a changing climateClimate change will amplify existing risks and create new risks for natural and human systems. Risks are unevenly distributed and are generally greater for disadvantaged people and communities in countries at all levels of development.

SPM 2.4 Climate change beyond 2100, irreversibility and abrupt changes

Many aspects of climate change and associated impacts will continue for centuries, even if anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are stopped. The risks of abrupt or irreversible changes increase as the magnitude of the warming increases.

SPM 3. Future Pathways for Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable DevelopmentAdaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies for reducing and managing the risks of climate change. Substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades can reduce climate risks in the 21st century and beyond, increase prospects for effective adaptation, reduce the costs and challenges of mitigation in the longer term and contribute to climate-resilient pathways for sustainable development.

SPM 3.2 Climate change risks reduced by mitigation and adaptationWithout additional mitigation efforts beyond those in place today, and even with adaptation, warming by the end of the 21st century will lead to high to very high risk of severe, widespread and irreversible impacts globally (high confidence). Mitigation involves some level of co-benefits and of risks due to adverse side effects, but these risks do not involve the same possibility of severe, widespread and irreversible impacts as risks from climate change, increasing the benefits from near-term mitigation efforts.

SPM 3.3 Characteristics of adaptation pathwaysAdaptation can reduce the risks of climate change impacts, but there are limits to its effectiveness, especially with greater magnitudes and rates of climate change. Taking a longer-term perspective, in the context of sustainable development, increases the likelihood that more immediate adaptation actions will also enhance future options and preparedness.

SPM 3.4 Characteristics of mitigation pathwaysThere are multiple mitigation pathways that are likely to limit warming to below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels. These pathways would require substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades and near zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases by the end of the century. Implementing such reductions poses substantial technological, economic, social and institutional challenges, which increase with delays in additional mitigation and if key technologies are not available. Limiting warming to lower or higher levels involves similar challenges but on different timescales.

SPM 4. Adaptation and MitigationMany adaptation and mitigation options can help address climate change, but no singleoption is sufficient by itself. Effective implementation depends on policies and cooperation at all scales and can be enhanced through integrated responses that link adaptation and mitigation with other societal objectives.

Possible Effects of a Warmer World

SPM 2- Changes in Food Production

SPM 2 - Reductions in Biodiversity

A. Plants and animals generally react to consistently warmer temperatures by__________

to higher latitudes and elevations. Recent studies reveal that some species have already started to ________their ranges, consistent with warming trends. B. Many populations and species may become more __________________ to declining

numbers or extinction if warming occurs faster than they can respond or if human

development presents barriers to their migration.

C. Spring events such as the unfolding of leaves, laying of eggs, and migration are

happening earlier.

D. There are poleward and upward (___ _____ _______) shifts in ranges of plant andanimal species.

SPM 1 - Rise in Sea Level

A. “Mountain ________ and snow cover have declined on average in both

hemispheres."

B. Losses from the land-based _______________of Greenland and Antarctica have very

likely (>90%) contributed to sea level rise between 1993 and 2003.

C. Ocean warming causes ___________ to expand, which contributes to sea level rising.

D. Based on multiple models that all exclude ice sheet flow due to a lack of _________ in published literature, it is estimated that sea level rise will be:

It is very likely that the mean rate of global averaged sea level rise was1.7 [1.5 to 1.9] mm/yr between 1901 and 2010 and 3.2 [2.8 to 3.6]

mm/yr between 1993 and 2010.

SPM 1.4 - More Extreme Weather

A. There has been an increase in _________________intensity in the North Atlantic

since the 1970s, and that increase correlates with increases in sea surface

temperature.

B. It is very likely that there will be an increase in frequency of warm spells,

______ ____________and events of heavy rainfall.

C. It is likely that there will be an increase in areas affected by_______________,

intensity of tropical cyclones (which include hurricanes and typhoons) and the

occurrence of extreme high tides.

SPM 2.3 - Threats to Human Health

A. Weather and climate play a significant role in people's health. Changes in climate

affect the average weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Warmer average

temperatures will likely lead to hotter days and more frequent and longer

_______ _________. This could increase the number of heat-related illnesses and

deaths. Increases in the frequency or severity of _________________________events

such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct

threats to people and property. Warmer temperatures could increase the concentrations of

unhealthy air and __________________________. Changes in temperature, precipitation

patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some __________________.

SPM 3 - Slowing Global Warming 1. Cut fossil fuel use

A. Car makers could __________________ increase the fuel economy of their cars and trucks.

B. Most electric utilities still use ________ to produce electricity, spewing millions

of tons of ___________________________ and other pollution into the

atmosphere every year. Part of the problem could be solved by converting these

plants to burn cleaner natural gas.

2. Improve energy efficiency

A. Our cars and light trucks, home appliances and power plants could be made much

more ______________ by simply installing the best current technology. Energy

efficiency is the cleanest, safest, most economical way to begin to curb global

warming.

B. We could do much more to save __________ in our homes and office buildings. More energy efficient lighting, heating and air-conditioning could keep millions of tons of carbon dioxide out of our air each year.

3. Reduce deforestation & plant trees

A. Because _____________________________ and soils contain about three times

as much carbon as the planet's atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems offer an

opportunity to absorb and store (sequester) a significant amount of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. By planting trees, preserving forests, and changing

cultivation practices to increase soil carbon, for example, it is possible to increase

the size of __________________________. 4. Slow human population growth

http://cyber.law.harvard.edu/commonsbasedresearch/sites/commonsbasedresearch / images/Global_GHG_Pie.png

Any Progress in Meeting These Objectives?

Key Mitigation Technologies and Practices by Sector

Sector Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available

Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030

Energy Supply Improved supply and distribution efficiency; fuel switching from coal to gas; nuclear power; renewable heat and power (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; early applications of CCS (e.g. storage of removed CO2 from natural gas)

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) for gas, biomass and coal-fired electricity generating facilities; advanced nuclear power; advanced renewable energy, including tidal and waves energy, concentrating solar, and solar PV.

Transport More fuel efficient vehicles; electric vehicle; hybrid vehicles; cleaner diesel vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; non-motorized transport (cycling, walking); land-use and transport planning

Second generation biofuels; higher efficiency aircraft; advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable batteries

Buildings Efficient lighting and daylighting; more efficient electrical appliances and heating and cooling devices; improved cook stoves, improved insulation; passive and active solar design for heating and cooling; alternative refrigeration fluids, recovery and recycle of fluorinated gases

Integrated design of commercial buildings including technologies, such as intelligent meters that provide feedback and control; solar PV integrated in buildings

Industry More efficient end-use electrical equipment; heat and power recovery; material recycling and substitution; control of non-CO2 gas emissions; and a wide array of process-specific technologies

Advanced energy efficiency; CCS for cement, ammonia, and iron manufacture; inert electrodes for aluminum manufacture

Agriculture Improved crop and grazing land management to increase soil carbon storage; restoration of cultivated peaty soils and degraded lands; improved rice cultivation techniques and livestock and manure management to reduce CH4 emissions; improved nitrogen fertilizer application techniques to reduce N2O emissions; dedicated energy crops to replace fossil fuel use; improved energy efficiency

Improvements of crop yields

Forestry/forests Afforestation; reforestation; forest management; reduced deforestation; harvested wood product management; use of forestry products for bio-energy to replace fossil fuel use

Tree species improvement to increase biomass productivity and carbon biosequestration. Improved remote sensing technologies for analysis of vegetation/ soil carbon sequestration potential and mapping land use change

Waste Landfill methane recovery; waste incineration with energy recovery; composting of organic waste; controlled waste water treatment; recycling and waste minimization

Biocovers and biofilters to optimize CH4 oxidation