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Page 1: HONG KONG F&B INDUSTRY: WHAT’S TRENDING AND SHIFTING€¦ · “US-China trade war ... Food, Alcoholic Drinks and Tobacco 23 Supermarkets Fuels Clothing & Footwear ... Packaging

Copyright © 2019 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

Prepared by Nielsen

August 2019

HONG KONG F&B INDUSTRY:WHAT’S TRENDING AND SHIFTING

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AGENDA

(1) MACRO & FMCG OVERVIEW

(2) BEVERAGE

(3) FOOD

(4) E-COMMERCE

(5) SUMMARY

Page 3: HONG KONG F&B INDUSTRY: WHAT’S TRENDING AND SHIFTING€¦ · “US-China trade war ... Food, Alcoholic Drinks and Tobacco 23 Supermarkets Fuels Clothing & Footwear ... Packaging

Copyright © 201 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

MACRO LANDSCAPE

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GDP GROWTH HAS YET TO SEE IMPROVEMENT, FACED WITH CONTINUED

DROP IN CONFIDENCE & DECLINING RETAIL SALES IN FIRST HALF

Sources : Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey & HK Census & Statistics Dept

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WITH RETAIL SALES TAKING FURTHER HIT IN JULY 2019 ADMIST

POLITICAL UNREST, FOLLOWING SUFFERING SALES WITH NEW

ECOM LAW & TRADE WAR PRESSURES FROM FIRST HALF

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-

asia/hong-kong-protests-send-stocks-

lower-spark-scramble-for-cash

“US-China trade war

continues to bite as Hong

Kong retail and tourism

sectors take a hit”

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-

kong/hong-kong-

economy/article/3012628/us-china-

trade-war-continues-bite-hong-kong-

retail

“Mainland’s new e-commerce

law which came into force on

Jan 1 will also affect the

“daigou” market”

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaki

ng-news.php?id=121165&sid=2

“The Hang Seng Index fell

1.7% at the close, with local

property developers among

the biggest losers.”

8% 9%

2%

6%

1%0%

7%

-10%

0%

-5%-1%

-7% -11%

Jul18 Aug18 Sep18 Oct18 Nov18 Dec18 Jan19 Feb19 Mar19 Apr19 May19 Jun19 Jul19

Retail Sales % Chg vs. YA

Source (retail sales): HK Census & Statistics Department

Total FMCG July 2019

Val % Chg vs. YA -5%

Vol % Chg vs. YA -5%

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DOWNTURNING TREND IN ARRIVALS, WITH JULY SUFFERING

FURTHER IN TOTAL RETAIL. CONSUMER DURABLES / BIG

TICKET ITEMS / DEPARTMENT SAW WORST DECLINE IN RETAIL

9

12

2

13

1312

16

23Food, Alcoholic Drinks and Tobacco

Supermarkets

Fuels

Clothing & Footwear

Consumer Durable Goods

Department Stores

Jewellery, Watches, Valuable gifts

Other Consumer Goods

Source: HKSAR C&SD, HKTB

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

11

Q1

11

Q2

11

Q3

11

Q4

12

Q1

12

Q2

12

Q3

12

Q4

13

Q1

13

Q2

13

Q3

13

Q4

14

Q1

14

Q2

14

Q3

14

Q4

15

Q1

15

Q2

15

Q3

15

Q4

16

Q1

16

Q2

16

Q3

16

Q4

17

Q1

17

Q2

17

Q3

17

Q4

18

Q1

18

Q2

18

Q3

18

Q4

19

Q1

19

Q2

Retail Sales Day Visitors

Overnight Visitors Total Visitors

Retail Sales & Mainland Visitor Arrivals (Day & Overnight) - % Change vs. YA

Q2 2019 vs. YA

Total Mainland Visitors+12

%

Overnight +7%

Day+16

%

Retail Sales -4%

+1%

+0.6%

-0.2%

-4.8%

-10.6%-2.6%

-10.6%

-0.5%

HK Retail Sales Breakdown – Q2 2019 and Val % Chg. YA

(SMKT + CVS)

(Motor, Furniture, Electronics)

(Books, Chinese medicine,

Optical, Medicine & Cosmetics)

Retail Sales & Arrivals

JUL 2019 vs. YA

Mainland Visitors -6%

Overnight -5%

Day -6%

Retail Sales -11%

Val % Chg: JUL 2019 vs. YA

Food / Alcoholic -2%

Supermarkets +1%

Fuels -0%

Clothing / Foot -13%

Consumer Durable -13%

Department -10%

Jewellery // watch -24%

Other Goods -10%

- Med & Cosmetics -16%

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COMPARED TO 2014 REVOLUTION, JULY PROTESTS HIT MARKET DEEPER

ON ALL ASPECTS GIVEN SCALE & NATURE OF PROTESTS, REBOUND LESS

LIKELY TO OCCUR AS QUICKLY THIS TIME AS PREVIOUS EVENTS

Major macro indicatorsUmbrella Revolution

Oct 2014 – Dec 2014

Anti-Extradition Protests

May 2019 – July 2019

GDP growth rate / forecast +2.6-0.6%

(Q3 2019 forecast)

Total Retail Sales – vs. YA +0.2% -6%

Mainland Tourist Arrivals – vs. YA +18% +9%

Exchange Rate (CN/HKD)1.24

(ending Dec 2014)

1.13

(ending July 2019)

Hong Kong CCI107

(Q4 2019 for reference)

99

(Q2 2019 for reference)

FMCG Index – Value % Chg vs. YA +7.5% -3.7%

Fastest growing - Val % Chg vs. YA Cleansing mask // Facial Mask Frozen Meat // Frozen Seafood

Fastest declining – Val % Chg vs.

YA

Lighting Device // Energy & Sports

Drink

Cleansing mask // Infant Diapers //

IMF

https://tradingeconomics.com/hong-kong/forecast

7.4%9.2% 9.9%

8.0%

4.3%

0.7%

-1.3% -1.9%-1.4%

1.0% 1.2%

-2.2%-3.7%

-1.9% -1.8%

1.1%

3.7%

6.9%

3.5%

1.1% 0.7%

-2.3%

14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2

FMCG Val % Chg vs. YAUmbrella Revolution 光復上水 - 踢行李 (IMF)

Anti-Extradition Protests

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8

1.19

1.141.14

1.09

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-17

Ap

r-17

Ma

y-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-18

Ap

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l19

Au

g1

9

June 15, 2018

Trump announces 25% tariffs on $50 billion

Chinese goods. China retaliates with tariffs

on $50 billion in US products.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/rmb-how-the-chinese-yuan-might-perform-in-us-china-trade-war.html

Source: Census & Statistics Department, China

https://cn.investing.com/currencies/cny-hkd-historical-data

Dec 1, 2018

US and China agree to strike a

trade deal within 90 days Aug 5, 2019

The yuan weakens past 7 per

US dollar level for the first time

Exchange Rate (CN/HKD)- Monthly

May 10, 2019

Tariff rates on $200 billion in

Chinese goods increases to

25%. China retaliates.

TRADE WAR ACTIVITIES ALSO AFFECTED EXCHANGE RATE

UNFAVORABLY, EVIDENTLY SHRINKING TOURIST SALES

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FMCG INDEX (MAT JUL 2019)

-9%

1%

-4%

-2%

3%

0%

-1%

2%

5%

-1%

-4%

-2%

1%

0%

6%

0%

14%

2%

11%

-1%

-2%

3%

3%

-1%

2%

1%

4%

-7%

-15%

5%

0%

3%

-3%

-2%

5%

0%

3%

1%

1%

-2%

Total Cosmetics

Total OTC & Health Supplements

Baby Care

Personal Care

Household

HH & Personal Care

Snacks & Conf

Packaged Food

Dairy, Bakery & Frozen

Non-Alcoholic Drinks

Alcoholic Drinks

Beverage

Food & Beverage

FMCG

Value % Change vs. YA

-9%

-4%

-9%

-7%

-1%

-5%

-2%

-2%

1%

-3%

-8%

-4%

-2%

-4%

0%

-4%

8%

-1%

5%

-2%

-4%

-1%

-1%

-4%

-2%

-2%

0%

-9%

-16%

-1%

-1%

-1%

-5%

-2%

2%

0%

4%

1%

-1%

-4%

Total Cosmetics

Total OTC & Health Supplements

Baby Care

Personal Care

Household

HH & Personal Care

Snacks & Conf

Packaged Food

Dairy, Bakery & Frozen

Non-Alcoholic Drinks

Alcoholic Drinks

Beverage

Food & Beverage

FMCG

MAT JUL17

MAT JUL18

MAT JUL19

Volume % Change vs. YA

TY

*Total Cosmetics is not included in FMCG

Page 10: HONG KONG F&B INDUSTRY: WHAT’S TRENDING AND SHIFTING€¦ · “US-China trade war ... Food, Alcoholic Drinks and Tobacco 23 Supermarkets Fuels Clothing & Footwear ... Packaging

Copyright © 201 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

BEVERAGE

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11

PACKAGED WATER, EHS, & SOYA DRINK SHOWED

SALES INCREASE ACROSS 2 PERIODSProlonged and consistent weekly demonstrations across Hong Kong resulted in sharp

sales surgesJun-Jul19 vs YA

% chgJul19 vs LM

% chg

TOTAL BEVERAGE -7.3% 8.3%

TOTAL Non-Alcoholic Beverage -4.7% 14.5%

Carbonated Soft Drink -9.8% 8.4%

Energy & Sports Drink 2.6% 33.0%

Flavoured Water -83.4% -15.8%

Instant Coffee 16.7% -11.6%

Juice -5.3% 8.0%

Juice Drink -17.7% 8.2%

Packaged Water 0.1% 11.1%

Ready To Drink Coffee -2.5% 31.0%

Ready To Drink Malt Drink 36.1% -0.5%

Ready To Drink Tea -8.5% 12.3%

Soya Drink 11.6% 4.4%

Tea 4.1% -17.7%

Wellness Drink -7.2% 34.3%

Yoghurt Drinks -11.5% 6.0%

TOTAL Alcoholic Beverage -13.5% -7.0%

Beer -7.7% 6.9%

Brandy -14.1% -15.4%

RTD Alcoholic Drinks -35.3% 5.9%

Total Wine -6.8% -9.6%

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12

CARBONATED SOFT DRINK IS THE HIGHEST-CONSUMING READY-TO-DRINK BEVERAGE

HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A DECLINING TREND. CONSUMERS CONSIDER

HEALTHIER AND LIGHTER OPTIONS SUCH AS SOY MILK, YOGURT DRINKS AND TEA.

19%32% 35%

15%25%

35% 38%27% 23%

32% 34%25%

38% 44% 46%55%

45% 47%38% 41% 48% 47% 41% 43%

43%24% 19%

30%

30%18%

24%32%

30%21%

25%33%

Carbona

ted soft

drink

Bottled

water

Soy

milk

Lemon

tea

Herbal

tea

Milk/

yoghurt

drinks

Green

tea/

Chinese

tea

Juice Coffee

Sports,

alkaline

health

drinks

Energy

drinks

Milk

tea

Consumption in

P1M46%

40

%37% 36% 34% 29% 29% 26% 25% 20% 19% 17%

Intention to Consume Respective RTD in N12M:

Consume

more often

Frequency

will remain

similar

Consume less

often

Base: 235 206 193 184 176 152 150 136 128 103 100 69

READY-TO-DRINK BEVERAGE

Base: All respondents (2019: n=515)

Source: (Q44) Type of RTD Consumed in P1M; (Q27b) Tendency of RTD Consumption in the future

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13Remarks: Sales value based on MAT Jun’19

Total Craft Beer: +2% vs YA

Gwei∙lo: +137% vs YA

Hong Kong Beer: +405% vs YA

Premiumization by tapping into

consumers looking for a more unique

beer w/ a modern & stylish “look & feel”

Premium: brewed in small

batches

2.3%

-0.1%

WAYS OF WINNING: BEVERAGE

$29.1 $94.9

Price premium

+226%Total beer Total Craft Beer

Craft

Beer

Growth

% Value Chg vs YA

Total

Beer

Growth

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14Remarks: Sales value based on MAT Jun’19

WAYS OF WINNING: BEVERAGE

Innovation:

Zero sugar + Fibre

Total Energy: +6% vs YA

Total Monster 355ml: +23% vs YA

Innovation with premiumization by

tapping into health conscious

consumer market

Pack type:

larger to smaller can

Total Softdrink: -3% vs YA

Total Coke Plus: +209% vs YA

Downsizing from 473ml to 355ml

while maintaining stable avg $/L

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15

WAYS OF WINNING: BEVERAGEPackaging design: Fun & Nostalgic/ Interactive/ Relevant

InternationalLocal

“Hong Kong theme” is a popular

trend welcomed by consumers.

Giving a feeling of “fun” &

“nostalgia”

Interactive packaging using

technology (VR/ QR code) while

cooperating with non FMCG

industries

Designs related to big events:

sports or festive season

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16Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

16

FOOD

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17

FIRST DECLINE ON TOTAL RESTAURANT

RECEIPTS VALUE IN PAST 10 YEARS

Latest Release: 06/08/2019

Source: Distribution and Services Statistics Section, Census & Statistics Department, HKSARhttp://www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/commerce_and_industry/index_cd_B1080002_dt_latest.jsp

Impacted by economic downturn since mid-2018, and further dragged by reduction in Mainlander

Tourist number and latest protests

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18

CHINESE

RESTAURANT

Value: -2.1%

Volume: -4.4%

NON-CHINESE

RESTAURANT

Value: -1.7%

Volume: -3.7%

FAST FOOD

Value: +3.1%

Volume: +1.9%

BAR

Value: -4.4%

Volume: -5.5%

Source: Census & Statistics Department, HKSARhttp://www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/commerce_and_industry/index_cd_B1080002_dt_latest.jsp

Latest Release: 06/08/2019

SHIFTING TOWARDS MORE CONVENIENT AND

COST-EFFECTIVE OPTIONS

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68%Ordering Delivery via

Restaurant

Usage of Delivery Service via Restaurant vs. Aggregators Usage of Aggregators

50%Ordering Delivery via

Aggregators

Base: All respondents (2019: n=515)

Source: 2019 Catering Study, (Q31a) Current incidence of ordering through restaurants/ aggregators; (Q32) Ever usage of aggregators

WHILE PEOPLE ARE DINING AT HOME, IT DOESN’T

TOTALLY TRANSLATE TO IN-HOME COOKING

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20

27.4

51.7

20.831.5

50.1

18.4

Penetration % MAT Jun18 Penetration % MAT Jun19

MEANWHILE, FOR THOSE STILL DINING AT HOME,

ALSO SHIFTING TOWARDS LIGHT COOKING WITH

REDUCED COOKING FREQUENCY

LIGHT COOKING

HOUSEHOLD

MEDIUM COOKING

HOUSEHOLDHEAVY COOKING

HOUSEHOLD

Light Cooking HH: Household that purchase Fresh/Frozen Food less than once a week

Medium Cooking HH: Household that purchase Fresh/Frozen Food more than once but less than 4 times a week

Heavy Cooking HH: Household that purchase Fresh/Frozen Food more 4 times a week

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21Nielsen MarketTrack – Sales Value (based on YTD Jul)

FROZEN

SEAFOOD

19 vs 18: +10%

18 vs 17: +1%

FROZEN

MEAT

19 vs 18: +14%

18 vs 17: +2%

PRE-PACKED

SOUP

19 vs 18: +7%

18 vs 17: -4%

PASTA & PASTA

SAUCE

19 vs 18: +3%

18 vs 17: -7%

SIGNIFICANT MOMENTUM GAIN ON FOOD

CATEGORIES THAT FACILITATE QUICK AND LIGHT

COOKING

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22Light Cooking Categories: Frozen Food, Canned Food, Pre-packed Soup, Instant Noodles Pasta, Pasta Source

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LIGHT COOKING GROWTH

AND WEAK ECONOMY ALSO SHOWN IN 2016

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

J+

F 1

5M

AR

15

AP

R1

5M

AY

15

JU

N15

JU

L15

AU

G1

5S

EP

15

OC

T15

NO

V15

DE

C1

5J

+F

16

MA

R1

6A

PR

16

MA

Y1

6J

UN

16

JU

L16

AU

G1

6S

EP

16

OC

T16

NO

V1

6D

EC

16

J+

F 1

7M

AR

17

AP

R1

7M

AY

17

JU

N1

7J

UL

17

AU

G1

7S

EP

17

OC

T17

NO

V1

7D

EC

17

J+

F 1

8M

AR

18

AP

R1

8M

AY

18

JU

N1

8J

UL

18

AU

G1

8S

EP

18

OC

T18

NO

V1

8D

EC

18

J+

F 1

9M

AR

19

AP

R19

MA

Y1

9Ju

n19

JU

L19

Light Cooking Categories Total Food

Meanwhile, Jun-Jul protest did not have much impact on Light Cooking Categories, but on Total Food

African Swine

Fever breakout

in China

Food Categories By-Month YOY Growth Rate

Small economic

dip since 2012

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23Source: 2018 Nielsen In-home Cooking Study Report, 2018 Nielsen Wellness Study

Health & Priceare No.1 in home

cooking driver

Top 3 health

motivators are all

family-related

(i.e. stay health to

be able to take

care for family)

Consumers

showing high

willingness to pay

premium for

products with

health claims

GROWTH OPPORTUNITY IN PREMIUMIZATION AND

INNOVATION WITH PRODUCTS PROMISING HEALTH

FOR FAMILY REASONS

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24

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US

), L

LC

. C

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o n

ot d

istr

ibu

te.

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), L

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More than a year agoSimilar to a year agoLess than a year ago

39%

47%

49%

41%

13%

39%

31%

40%

48%

14%

21%

19%

HOME COOKING

Home cooking

Leftover from previous

cooking

Cook instant food

(e.g. instant noodle,

soup, etc.)

Heated up frozen meals/

Ready to eat meals

Base: All respondents (2019: n=515)

Source: (Q151) Visitation change on in-home cooking experience; (Q152) Imageries by cooking experiences

Consumers are more likely to make proper meals at home. Home cooking is perceived as fresh

and healthy – consumers try to compensate for their less healthy options while dining out with

healthier home cooked meals even if it requires more preparation and time.

Short Waiting Time

29%

Value for

Money

16%

Food

Portion

15%

Freshness

57%

Healthy

Choice

53%

Ingredients

Quality

51%

Short Waiting Time

38%

Value for

Money

21%

Food

Portion

18%

Short Waiting Time

37%

Food Portion

18%

Value for

Money

18%

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25

WAYS OF WINNING IN TAKE-HOME CONSUMPTION

Total Category: +7% vs YA

Impulse Size @ CVS: +21% vs YA

Penetration gain on Impulse Size

Share of Trade shifting towards CVS

Total Pre-packed Soup: +0% vs YA

Ready-to-serve: +3% vs YA

Ready-to-serve Chinese: +14% vs YA

Nielsen MarketTrack – Sales Value (based on YTD Jul)

CVS Multi-buy promotions

boosting home consumption

Total Water Dumpling: +8% vs YA

Premium Line ($95+/kg): +38% vs YA

Premiumization supported

with ingredient upgrade

Quick and healthy:

Ready-to-serve Chinese Soup

Page 26: HONG KONG F&B INDUSTRY: WHAT’S TRENDING AND SHIFTING€¦ · “US-China trade war ... Food, Alcoholic Drinks and Tobacco 23 Supermarkets Fuels Clothing & Footwear ... Packaging

Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

E-COMMERCE

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27

Total EC Sales | FMCG | (HKD million$)

TOTAL EC HKTV MALL OTHER EC

499

706

2017 2018

294

416

2017 2018

205

290

2017 2018

41%

42%41%

HKTVMALL SALES LANDSCAPEHKTVmall accounted for 59% of EC sales and reported 42% growth in 2018

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28

Penetration (%)

Value Per Trip(HKD)

Sales Value

HKTV mall | Super Categories Performance(2018)

SUPER-CATEGORY OVERVIEW

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29

KEY TRENDS IN SUMMARY

PREMIUM HEALTHIN HOME

COOKINGE-COMMERCE

Crossover

InnovationLess

sugar/salt

Fresh

Ingredients

Quick & Easy

Value for money

Convenience

Price & Promotion

Page 30: HONG KONG F&B INDUSTRY: WHAT’S TRENDING AND SHIFTING€¦ · “US-China trade war ... Food, Alcoholic Drinks and Tobacco 23 Supermarkets Fuels Clothing & Footwear ... Packaging

Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

THANK YOU