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14.02.2019Slide 1 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
Thünen Institute of International Forestry and Forest Economics
Koli/FI,14.02.2019
German scenario case studies onchanging wood supply and bio-economy pathways
DIABOLO Project final conference and UNECE/FAO Forest Sector Outlook Day: “Exchange and Experiences in Forest Sector Outlook Studies and Related Work”
14.02.2019Slide 2 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
WEHAM-Scenarios(finished)
• Background & Objectives– Forest development and timber supply scenarios based on NFI (timeframe -> 2052)– Stakeholder evaluation of alternative raw material supply and wood markets
developments – Market Modelling: How might the German forest-based sector respond to changing
timber supply potentials?
Changing wood supply and bio-economy pathwaysTwo scenario case studies in national projects in Germany
www.weham-szenarien.de
BEPASO(ongoing)
• Background & Objectives– Bioeconomy pathways and social acceptance (timeframe -> 2050)– Possible (economic) impacts from future bio-economy developments obtained from
broad stakeholder participation (experts, society, scientists)– Market Modelling: How might supply and demand structures of traditional and
emerging wood products change in face of growing competition for raw materials?
14.02.2019Slide 3 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM)Basic structure
• 180 countries, 14 products
• Input data:- production, trade, values
- forest area, growing stock
- GDP, population
• Output: Production, trade,
consumption, prices, forest
development
• Objective function: Maximizing the total welfare in the forest sector
Fig.: Product structure GFPM according to Buongiorno et al. 2003, own illustration
RoundwoodIndustrial
Roundwood
Fuelwood
Other Industrial
Roundwood
Sawnwood
Particle Board
Veneer & Plywood
Fibre Board
Mechanical Pulp
Chemical Pulp
Other Fibre Pulp
Waste Paper
Newsprint
Printing and Writing
Paper
Other Paper and
Paperboard
Other Industrial
Roundwood
Fuelwood
14.02.2019Slide 4 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
Wood demand scenarios
Case Study 1: WEHAM-Scenarios Application of GFPM
Timber harvesting
potential (C/NC)
Fuel-
wood
WEHAM
C/NC Industrial
Roundwood
GFPM
Fuelwood
Sawnwood (C/NC)
Veneer/Plywood
Particle/Fibre Board
Chem./Mech. Pup
Paper & Paperboard
Input
Roundwood „removed“
Fuelwood C/NC
→WEHAM-Output serves as a upper bound→ Fuelwood demand is to meet
14.02.2019Slide 5 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosBasic structure: modified GFPM -> C/NC
• 180 countries, 16 products
• C/NC industrial roundwood + C/NC sawnwood
• Re-programming the model calibration for input data
• Re-estimation of supply, demand and import/export elasticities
Fig.: Product structure GFPMcncaccording to Schier et al. 2018, own illustration
Roundwood
Coniferous Ind.
Roundwood
Fuelwood
Other Industrial
Roundwood
Non-Coniferous Ind.
Roundwood
Non-Coniferous
Sawnwood
Coniferous Sawnwood
Particle Board
Veneer & Plywood
Fibre Board
Other Industrial
Roundwood
Fuelwood
Mechanical Pulp
Chemical Pulp
Other Fibre Pulp
Waste Paper
Newsprint
Printing and Writing
Paper
Other Paper and
Paperboard
14.02.2019Slide 6 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
Potential fellings of coniferous roundwood (mill. m3/year)
0200040006000800010000120001400016000
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Blue -> BAS-REF ScenarioLimited production of Conif. roundwood, increasing prod. of Non-Conif. roundwood
Red -> HPS-FÖR ScenarioIncreasing production of C and NC roundwood
Green -> NPS-RES ScenarioNature oriented forest conversion implies more production of Conif. RW, but limited NC Roundwood
Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application (Step 0: WEHAM)
14.02.2019Slide 7 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
0200040006000800010000120001400016000
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Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application (Step 1: Dead wood)
Blue -> BAS-REF ScenarioLimited production of Conif. roundwood, increasing prod. of Non-Conif. roundwood
Red -> HPS-FÖR ScenarioIncreasing production of C and NC roundwood
Green -> NPS-RES ScenarioNature oriented forest conversion implies more production of Conif. RW, but limited NC Roundwood
Mill m
3
Potential fellings of coniferous roundwood (mill. m3/year)minus quantities necessary for scenarios dead wood supply
14.02.2019Slide 8 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
0200040006000800010000120001400016000
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15
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25
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35
20
45
BAS
HPS
NPS
05
101520253035404550
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Stoffl. Prod Energ. Prod Totholzlieferung
05
101520253035404550
Stoffl. Prod Energ. Prod Totholzlieferung
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101520253035404550
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Stoffl. Prod Energ. Prod Totholzlieferung
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Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application (Step 2: Fuel wood)
Blue -> BAS-REF ScenarioLimited production of Conif. roundwood, increasing prod. of Non-Conif. roundwood
Red -> HPS-FÖR ScenarioIncreasing production of C and NC roundwood
Green -> NPS-RES ScenarioNature oriented forest conversion implies more production of Conif. RW, but limited NC Roundwood
Mill m
3
Potential fellings of coniferous roundwood (mill. m3/year)minus quantities necessary for scenarios dead wood supplyminus quantities necessary for scenarios fuel wood demand
14.02.2019Slide 9 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
0200040006000800010000120001400016000
20
15
20
25
20
35
20
45
BAS
HPS
NPS
0
5
10
15
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45
50
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application (Step 0: WEHAM)
Blue -> BAS-REF ScenarioLimited production of Conif. roundwood, increasing prod. of Non-Conif. roundwood
Red -> HPS-FÖR ScenarioIncreasing production of C and NC roundwood
Green -> NPS-RES ScenarioNature oriented forest conversion implies more production of Conif. RW, but limited NC Roundwood
Mill m
3
Potential fellings of non-coniferous roundwood (mill. m3/year)
14.02.2019Slide 10 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
0200040006000800010000120001400016000
20
15
20
25
20
35
20
45
BAS
HPS
NPS
05
101520253035404550
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Stoffl. Prod Energ. Prod Totholzlieferung
05
101520253035404550
Stoffl. Prod Energ. Prod Totholzlieferung
05
101520253035404550
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Stoffl. Prod Energ. Prod Totholzlieferung
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5
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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application (Step 1: Dead wood)
Blue -> BAS-REF ScenarioLimited production of Conif. roundwood, increasing prod. of Non-Conif. roundwood
Red -> HPS-FÖR ScenarioIncreasing production of C and NC roundwood
Green -> NPS-RES ScenarioNature oriented forest conversion implies more production of Conif. RW, but limited NC Roundwood
Mill m
3
Potential fellings of non-coniferous roundwood (mill. m3/year)minus quantities necessary for scenarios dead wood supply
14.02.2019Slide 11 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
0200040006000800010000120001400016000
20
15
20
25
20
35
20
45
BAS
HPS
NPS
05
101520253035404550
Stoffl. Prod Energ. Prod Totholzlieferung
05
101520253035404550
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Stoffl. Prod Energ. Prod Totholzlieferung
05
101520253035404550
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Stoffl. Prod Energ. Prod Totholzlieferung
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5
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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application (Step 2: Fuel wood)
Blue -> BAS-REF ScenarioLimited production of Conif. roundwood, increasing prod. of Non-Conif. roundwood
Red -> HPS-FÖR ScenarioIncreasing production of C and NC roundwood
Green -> NPS-RES ScenarioNature oriented forest conversion implies more production of Conif. RW, but limited NC Roundwood
Mill m
3
Potential fellings of non-coniferous roundwood (mill. m3/year)minus quantities necessary for scenarios dead wood supplyminus quantities necessary for scenarios fuel wood demand
14.02.2019Slide 12 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
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Max. potential of coniferous roundwood
Max. potential of non-conif. roundwood
Mill m
3M
ill m
3
Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application: Max. potential for GFPM
Blue -> BAS-REF ScenarioLimited production of Conif. roundwood, increasing prod. of Non-Conif. roundwood
Red -> HPS-FÖR ScenarioIncreasing production of C and NC roundwood
Green -> NPS-RES ScenarioNature oriented forest conversion implies more production of Conif. RW, but limited NC Roundwood
14.02.2019Slide 13 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
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Produktion historisch BAS-REF Potential BAS-REF Produktion
HPS-FÖR Potential HPS-FÖR Produktion NPS-RES Potential
NPS-RES Produktion
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Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application: Max. potential for GFPM
Potential fellings of coniferous roundwood
Calculated potential of coniferous roundwood as upper bound for domestic annual production
-> How does this interact with market demand for material use?
14.02.2019Slide 14 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
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Produktion historisch BAS-REF Potential BAS-REF Produktion
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NPS-RES Produktion
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Unused potential defined as“standing storage”
Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application: Max. potential for GFPM
Potential fellings of coniferous roundwood
Calculated potential of coniferous roundwood as upper bound for domestic annual production
Production of coniferous roundwood estimated as modelling results
14.02.2019Slide 15 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
Calculated potential of coniferous roundwood as upper bound for domestic annual production
“Standing storage”: Unused potential of previous years increases potential of following years
Production of coniferous roundwood estimated as modelling results
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Produktion historisch BAS-REF Potential BAS-REF Produktion
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Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application: Max. potential for GFPM
Potential fellings of coniferous roundwood
14.02.2019Slide 16 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
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Produktion historisch BAS-REFVerwendung BAS-REF Produktion HPS-FÖR Verwendung
HPS-FÖR Produktion NPS-RES Verwendung NPS-RES Produktion
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Production of industry develops positively
in two scenarios.
Nature oriented scenario (below): reduced
domestic supply leads to decrease of
industry production ad consumption.
Note: Exogenous scenario settings for fuel
wood consumption and dead wood supply
lead to reduced potential!
Demand of domestic industry is also
supplied by rising imports.
Case Study 1: WEHAM-ScenariosScenario application: Results (example)
Production and consumption of coniferous roundwood
14.02.2019Slide 17 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
WEHAM-Scenarios(finished)
• Background & Objectives– Forest development and timber supply scenarios based on NFI (timeframe -> 2052)– Stakeholder evaluation of alternative raw material supply and wood markets
developments – Market Modelling: How might the German forest-based sector respond to changing
timber supply potentials?
Changing wood supply and bio-economy pathwaysTwo scenario case studies in national projects in Germany
www.weham-szenarien.de
BEPASO(ongoing)
• Background & Objectives– Bioeconomy pathways and social acceptance (timeframe -> 2050)– Possible (economic) impacts from future bio-economy developments obtained from
broad stakeholder participation (experts, society, scientists)– Market Modelling: How might supply and demand structures of traditional and
emerging wood products change in face of growing competition for raw materials?
14.02.2019Slide 18 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
Case Study 2: BEPASOProject structure
STATUS QUO
Bio-Economy
Scenario
development
Model-based
impact
assessment
Stakeholder
dialog
Synthesis and
advice
Bioeconomy pathways and social acceptance(focus on Germany, forestry & agriculture)
Project goal (for forestsector modelling):Including „new values from wood“ into traditional wood products market modelling to adapt wood products market analysis and scenario assessments
-> What does that mean?
14.02.2019Slide 19 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
Case Study 2: BEPASO
Modified product structure
RoundwoodConiferous Ind
Roundwood
Fuelwood
Other Ind
Roundwood
Non- Coniferous
Ind Roundwood
Non- Coniferous
Sawnwood
Coniferous
Sawnwood
Particle Board
Veneer & Plywood
Fibre Board
Other Industrial
Roundwood
Fuelwood
Mechanical Pulp
Chemical Pulp
Other Fibre Pulp
Waste Paper
Newsprint
Printing and
Writing Paper
Other Paper and
Paperboard
Dissolving Pulp
e.g. Cellulose
Fibers
e.g. Cellulose
Detrivatives
• “New” values from wood:- Dissolving Pulp as
intermediate product- Cellulose-based chemical
derivatives & cellulose-based fibres as end products
• 180 countries, 19 products
• Re-programming the model calibration for input data
• Estimate market elasticities for GDP and price
• Precondition to model impacts of bio-economy scenarios
14.02.2019Slide 20 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
→ Global production increases about 10 million tons in 25 years.
→ Production increases mostly in Asia, only slight increases in Europe.However, that seems to low as plans for capacity development in Europe (Scandinavia + AT) are actually at least at about 0.5 mill tons until 2020.
0
4500000
9000000
13500000
18000000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
ton
s
Production of Dissl. Plp in EU - Asia - World
FAO Historic GFPM World FAO Historic
GFPM Asia FAO Historisch GFPM Europe
Case Study 2: BEPASO
First test simulation results with dissolving pulp
14.02.2019Slide 21 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
• Split of roundwood and sawnwood into C/NC is necessary for specific national analyses with GFPM (in Germany)
• Global model is used in order to show reactions with international markets
• Estimation of elasticities necessary when including new products
• Applications for specific national analyses were successful and showed (besides scenario settings) also interaction with international markets
• Further modifications of the model are possible but depend on scenario description. In future, focus will be also on European and/or global analyses
Summary and Conclusion
14.02.2019Slide 22 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
Thünen Institute of International Forestry and Forest EconomicsLeuschnerstr. 9121031 Hamburg, GermanyWeb: www.thuenen.de
The Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries – Thünen Institute in brief –consists of 14 specialized institutes that carry out research and provide policy advice in the fields of economy, ecology and technology.
Thank you for your attention!
Dr. Holger WeimarTel: +49 (0)40 73962-314Mail: [email protected]
Koli/FI,14.02.2019
14.02.2019Slide 23 Holger Weimar, Franziska Schier, Christian Morland
German scenario case studies
Annex
Sources:
Buongiorno J, Zhu S, Zhang D, Turner JA, Tomberlin D (2003): The global Forest Products Model. Structure, Estimation, and Applications. Acad. Press, Amsterdam [u.a.]
FAOSTAT (2016): FAO statistics division. www.faost at3.fao.org.
Mantau U, Döring P, Glasenapp S, Blanke C (2017): Szenarien der stofflichen und energetischen Holzver-wendung, AFZ-DerWald 13/2017
Morland C, Schier F, Janzen N, Weimar H (2018): Supply and demand functions for global wood markets: Specification and plausibility testing of econometric models within the global forest sector. Forest Pol Econ 92:92-105
Oehmichen k, Röhling S, Dunger K, Gerber K, Klatt S (2017): Ergebnisse und Bewertung der alternativen WEHAM-Szenarien, AFZ-DerWald 13/2017
Schier F, Morland C, Janzen N, Weimar H (2018) Impacts of changing coniferous and non-coniferous wood supplyon forest product markets: a German scenario case study. Eur J Forest Res 137(3):279-300
Schier F, Weimar H (2018): Holzmarktmodellierung - Szenarienbasierte Folgenabschätzung verschiedener Rohholzangebotssituationen für den Sektor Forst und Holz. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 57 p, Thünen Working Paper 91
Thünen-Institut (2014): Dritte Bundeswaldinventur (BWI) 2012 - Ergebnisdatenbank, https://bwi.info
Thünen-Institut (2016): Waldentwicklungs- und Holzaufkommensmodellierung (WEHAM) 2012 -Ergebnisdatenbank, https://bwi.info
UNComtrade, United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database: (http://comtrade.un.org).