homeland security threat overview

8/8/2019 Homeland Security Threat Overview

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UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIALUSE ONLY

HITRAC Critical Infrastructure Threat Analysis

The Overall Classification of this Briefing is:The Overall Classification of this Briefing is:UNCLASSIFIED//FOUOUNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

Homeland Security

Threat Overview

Office of Intelligence and Analysis Office of Intelligence and Analysis Analysis Analysis and Production Directorate and Production Directorate


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Office ofIntelligence &

Analysis

Secretary ofHomeland SecurityFraud Detection

and NationalSecurity

USCIS

U/SManagement

Security

US SecretService

IntelligenceDivision

MaritimeIntelligence

Fusion CenterAtlantic

MaritimeIntelligence

Fusion CenterPacific

US Coast Guard

IntelligenceCoordination

Center

U/S S&T

National BiodefenseAnalysis and

CountermeasuresCenter (NBACC)

CBP

Office ofIntelligence

Border PatrolField Intelligence

Center (BORFIC)SectorIntelligence Units

Border PatrolSectors

ICE


IntelligenceBranch

Federal ProtectiveService

TSA


TacticalIntelligence

Branch

Federal AirMarshals Service

(FAMS)

Tactical Intelligence Center Field Intelligence Units

DHS IntelligenceDHS Intelligence

Key

DHS HQ ElementMember of the IC Quasi-Intelligence Element

DHS Intelligence Component

Non-Intel Sub-HQ Component

ChiefIntelligence

Officer


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Chief of Staff(CS)P/DUS-IA

US-IA/CINT

DUS-IAMission Integration

InformationSharing

&Knowledge

Management(IM)

Plans&

Integration(PI)

DUS-IAIntelligence

CollectionRequirementsManagement

(CR)

ProductionManagement

(PM)

Watch andWarning

HomelandEnvironment

ThreatAnalysis(HETA)

Borders andCBRNEThreat

Analysis(BCTA)

CriticalInfrastructure

ThreatAnalysis(HITRAC)

I&A StructureI&A Structure


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Al-Qaidas Global Jihad Priorities Al-Qaida has focused on several key areas of

importance to the group to further spread its goalof global jihad Iraq AQ in Iraq is committed to removing US and Coalition

troops and returning Iraq to an Islamic state governed withSharia law

Africa AQ has sought mergers with groups in Africa to furtherits agenda and has made frequent statements on the importanceof Sudan and Somalia as fronts in the global jihad.

Afghanistan AQs former safehaven and a key component ofthe groups strategy in promoting global jihad.


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AQs strategic reach is increasing in NorthAfrica, Europe, and Iraq AQ Deputy Leader Ayman al-Zawahiri announced last

year that the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat

(GSPC) a group based in Algeria - merged with al-Qaìda and is now called the al-Qaìda in the Lands ofthe Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).

AQ will probably seek to leverage the contacts andcapabilities of al-Qaìda in Iraq as its most visible andcapable affiliate and the only affiliate known to haveexpressed a desire to attack the US homeland.

Al-Qaidas Expanding Global Outreach


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HITRAC Critical Infrastructure Threat Analysis AQ Intent on Attacking

ONG Infrastructure (U//FOUO) Al-Qaida continues to

demonstrate its intent and capability to targetoil and natural gas infrastructureexploitingmedia to promote attacks in sector Video messages Jihadi websites

(U//FOUO) Targets identified in 2006 Oilfatwa: Oil pipelines Oil facilities Oil industry-related individuals (including

soldiers guarding facilities) Not permitted: attacks on oil wells


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Saudi Extremist Networks (U//FOUO) Saudi Arabian Ministry of the Interior (MOI) continues to arrest

suspected and AQ-affiliated terrorists. Arrested 172 militants in a 6-9 month period; 7 terror cells uncovered:

Operational support cell; 9 members; gathering weapons andinformation on petroleum facilities

Group of 5 individuals associated with the 24 February 2006Abqaiq attack

(U//FOUO) On 5 June the ministry announced the arrests of 3 AQmembers responsible for recruiting youths on the internet and encouragingattacks on Saudi oil facilities.

( U//FOUO) Some individuals associated with these cells remain at large and continue to represent a threat to Saudi Arabias ONG infrastructure; threat levels remain high as al-Qaida and insurgent groups have an enduring interest in attacks targeting oil facilities.


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Pakistan

Pakistan Pakistan - - Federally Administered Tribal Areas Federally Administered Tribal Areas

The The Maghreb Maghreb

Source: dailykos.com

AQ Senior Leadership remains activeIncreased extremist activity in FATA areasTribal leaders agreed to keep foreigners from

the regionReduced military presence afforded AQ anopportunity to reconstitute

Stand-off between Pakistani governmentforces and mosque leaders turns violent

Increased suicide attacks since assault onmosqueAl-Zawahiri calls for Pakistanis to join the jihadto revenge attack by government forces

Al-Zawahiri increasingly active in issuingpropaganda statements Recent UBL statement contained old clips, butmeant to reassure the followers that he remainsactive and in charge of AQ


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Soft Targets: Away from hardened, well-protected facilities towardsattacks on more accessible and vulnerable sites of public access or massassembly

Commercial and Government Facilities: Vehicle borne improvisedexplosive devices

Mass Transit and Rail: Use of carried or placed improvised explosive

devices Mumbai, India - 11 July 2006 London, UK - 7 July and 21 July 2005 Madrid, Spain - 11 March 2004

Casings and Surveillance: Barot casings demonstrate high level ofsophistication UK Gas Limos Project

NY/NJ financial institutions

OVERSEAS TRENDS


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Terrorist Threat to the HomelandAl-Qa`ida is intent in striking the US homeland andthe US will face a persistent and evolving terroristthreat over the next three years

AQ pushing other extremist Sunni communities to mimic its efforts and tosupplement its capabilities.

Al-Qa`ida homeland plotting is likely to continue tofocus on prominent political, economic, andinfrastructure targets with the goal of:

Producing mass causalitiesVisually dramatic destructionSignificant economic aftershocksFear amongst US population


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Terrorist Threat to the HomelandAQ will continue to try to acquire and employchemical, biological, radiological or nuclear

materialLebanese Hizballah may attempt to attack theHomeland

Existence of radical, self-generating cells suggestthat the US is not immune to what we judge is anexpanding radical and violent segment in the westNon-muslim, single-issue groups will probablyconduct attacks


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Threats to Infrastructure Al-Qaida and affiliates likely continue to have interest in attacking Homeland infrastructure to inflict casualties, instill

fear in the public, and to damage our economy Iconic and highly symbolic Homeland sites likely remain enduring targets

Terrorists likely remain interested in conducting attacksagainst U.S. mass transit sector and the aviation sectors Relative ease and success in which similar attacks were conducted in

Madrid, London and Mumbai bombings

Improvised explosives , carried or vehicle borne, are thedevices that are the preferred attack method againstinfrastructure targets

HITRAC


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Terrorist Threat to Food and Agriculture DHS lacks credible information to indicate planning for an

attack against the Food and Agriculture sector, but continues to

pay great attention to this threat Al-Qaida documents recovered from Afghanistan in 2002 indicate

interest in animal and plant disease agents , while discussions

among Islamists demonstrate general awareness of potentialeffects of introducing animal and plant diseases

Al-Qaida has shown an awareness of chemical and biological

agents utility as food contaminants , while discussions amongIslamists and terrorist training manuals show interest in foodcontamination as an attack method

HITRAC


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Terrorist Threat to Food and Agriculture While the biochemical industry is the main focus of animal

rights extremists, and environmental extremists have a

tangential focus on food and agriculture, both groupscontinue to show interest in targeting food and agriculture

Animal rights extremists have targeted agricultural research

facilities, as well as food products that experiment on animals, andsome recent actions have been tied to frustrations over recentlegislation targeting these extremists

Environmental extremists have targeted USDA Forest ServiceResearch facilities, while the broader anarchist movement has alsoshown an interest in targeting food and agriculture

HITRAC


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Recent terrorist plots show theimportance of insiders to gain accessto targets

AQ planner Barot had tasked a cell member tosecure employment at a hotel in the UK to learn

how to deactivate fire and security systemsJFK plot leader had been a cargo handler at theairport. He used his job-related knowledge toconduct surveillance and plan the attack

The Fort Dix Six used a family members pizzarestaurant to gain access to the post in 2006and conduct preoperational surveillance

Insider Threats to Infrastructure

Dhiren Barot

JFK plot lead

HITRAC


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SAR proven utility for investigative purposes Potentially useful for Trend and Pattern Analysis

However no baseline to evaluate Incomplete data set Inconsistency with data collection

Exercise that requires federal and statecooperation

Suspicious Activity Overview

HITRAC


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Suspicious Activity Analysis Electric Power Dams Oil & Gas Chemical Nuclear Transportation related activity

Data is inconsistent, nonstandard and not reliable for developingjudgments and assessments. We need a more comprehensive plan to incorporate State data.

HITRAC


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Categories of Data StudiedPHOTOGRAPHY

OBSERVATION

THEFT

EXPRESSED THREAT

WEAPONS DISCOVERY

OTHER

ELICITING INFORMATION

BREACH / INTRUSION

ATTEMPTED INTRUSION

SABOTAGE/ TAMPERING/VANDALISM

CYBER ATTACK

FLYOVER

HITRAC


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10K lbs of ammonium nitrate reportedly stolen from a truck driver

Fort Peck dam reportedly going to be attacked by an IED inJanuary 2008

Both reports are serious in nature and were investigatedpromptly by authorities

Both reports were found to be not terrorism related

Recent Suspicious Activity

First reports are generally vague, incomplete and often inaccurate!

HITRAC


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Bulk Cell Phone Purchase Activity Local and State law enforcement agencies received numerous

calls reporting suspicious bulk cell phone purchases.

In retail locations throughout the U.S., cell phone purchasers: Visited multiple locations and purchased hundreds or thousands of

phones. Attempted to conceal their identity.

Were described as Middle Eastern. Used gift cards or cash.

DHS and FBI assessed that most individuals engaged in suchpurchases were taking advantage of discounted prices in the U.S.

and reselling the phones for profit overseas. DHS and the FBI determined some buyers were associated to

terrorist networks. The suspected motive was fundraising.**DHS/FBI Joint Homeland Security Assessment 7 February 2006

HITRAC


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High degree of detail and awareness of sitevulnerabilities, security operations, and law

enforcement and emergency responseExtensive use of open sources to obtainbackground information on targets,employees, and building structure

Illustrates AQs interest in financial industry

facilities as targetsCommercial facilities, mass transit and rail are oftenco-located with financial institutions in Chicago, NewYork, Washington, DC, and other major cities

Suspicious Activity: AQ Casing Reports

Dhiren Barot


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HITRAC


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Critical Infrastructure Threat Analysis

Suspicious Activity: Some Conclusions Interesting convergence of incidents; but no definiteterrorism nexus

Foreign intelligence may provide valuable start points fordata evaluation

No discernable patterns or trends emerged to date tosuggest preoperational activity

Building increased relationships with Private Sector Useful in outreach and evaluation of their security

Cross sector evaluation challenges but potentiallybeneficial

HITRAC


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Critical Infrastructure Threat Analysis

Al-Qaida Priorities U.S. is still the Brass Ring Other Western countries and

Western interests are validTargets

Aiming for the Spectacularor the Achievable?

HITRAC


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Critical Infrastructure Threat Analysis Conclusions

Al-Qaida remains intent on attacking the Homeland and US interestsoverseas Opportunities may be reduced through increased security, but not

eliminated al-Qaida continues to adapt to security environments

Homeland-specific operational planning continues Affiliated Sunni extremists and like-minded individuals also harbor

intent to conduct mass-casualty attacks in the Homeland An attack by domestic extremist elements or affiliates (to include

homegrown extremists) will be viewed by al-Qaida as a success

DHS lacks credible information to indicate transnational terroristplanning for an attack against food and agriculture, But al-Qaida and other Islamist groups have shown interest in targeting

the food and agriculture sector

Food and agriculture is not the primary focus of domestic animalrights and environmental extremists, They have attacked food and agriculture-related targets in the past, and

likely will continue to show an interest in the sector

homeland security threat overview

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