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Extended Drought Scenario for FEMA’s Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Process
Water Year 1 Water Year 5Water Year 4Water Year 3Water Year 2 Water Year 6
Multi-year drought focusing on the following time points:WY 1: Drought begins to developWY 4: Drought continues with an increase in spatial extent and severityWY 5: Peak of drought extent and severity before gradual improvement
Scenario Overview
Drought Intensity
Abnormally Dry
Moderate Drought
Severe Drought
Extreme Drought
Exceptional Drought
Percent area in drought (adapted from the U.S. Drought Monitor).
http://droughtthira.unl.edu
Oct 1 Oct 1 Oct 1 Oct 1 Oct 1 Oct 1
Seasonal tourism
revenues have declined.
Dust storm on major highway
results in multiple
accidents, including a
hazmat incident.
Power outages occur as heat
causes increased
demand for electricity.
Major reservoir falls to 20% of
normal.
Increased visits are reported at
local food pantries.
Heatwaves cause illnesses.
High water temperatures cause fish and wildlife deaths.
West Nile outbreaks have been reported across much of
the state.
A B C D E F G
Domestic wells have run dry or
are experiencing water quality
issues.
H
Water Year 4Drought continues with an increase in spatial extent and severity
10/1/WY1
Perc
ent A
rea
in D
roug
ht
Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1
Winter precipitation
failed to bring drought relief.
Major reservoir is nearly empty.
Rural communities
continue to face water supply & water quality
Wildfire threatens an
outdoor student
research facility while students
are present.
Fire at a state park over labor day weekend.
West Nile outbreaks occur again this year with a record
number of cases.
Producers aren’t planting irrigated land.
A B C D E F G
Extreme heat causes multiple
illnesses at a major public
event.
H
Water Year 5Drought continues with an increase in spatial extent and severity
Perc
ent A
rea
in D
roug
ht
Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1