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TRANSCRIPT
Celebrate life’s moments
Capital Markets PresentationCard Factory plc’s New Strategy
The first choice for greeting cards
Key takeaways:
973 stores reopened and trading by 3 July 2020; with 1,015 stores trading today
Sales from stores exceeding initial expectations:
– Like-for-like sales down only 21.6% (compared with 50% reduction forecast for first month of reopening)
– Average spend up 24.9%
– Online sales up 69% year to date; up 121% during lockdown and up 61% since store reopenings started
H1 revenues expected to be approximately £100m
Net debt at 19 July 2020 was £144m, below original forecast, aided by agreed deferred payments to suppliers / landlords
1
Morning trading update
2
AgendaTopic Speaker Role Time
Introduction Paul Moody Executive Chair 10m
Market Context Pierre Hyde Strategy and Insight Director 10m
Winning Card-led Retail Proposition Adam Dury Chief Commercial Officer 12m
Growing in More Places Kris Lee Chief Financial Officer 8m
Retail Partnerships Chris Beck Executive Director – Business Development 6m
E-commerce & Multichannel Glyn Williams Customer and Multichannel Director 6m
Manufacturing & Supply Chain Andrew Wasley Executive Director – Manufacturing and Supply 6m
Lowest Cost to Operate Paul Moody Executive Chair 3m
Financials Kris Lee Chief Financial Officer 12m
Summary Paul Moody Executive Chair 4m
Our vision
Our mission
3
Card Factory aspires to be recognised
as the world’s best greeting card retailer:
everywhere, and for all occasions, the
first choice for greeting cards.
Card Factory’s purpose is helping
people celebrate life moments by
making our products affordable
and available for everyone.
Clarity of ambition
4
Differentiated market leadership
1Data from Card Factory Market Tracker 2020, which is based on a nationally representative survey of over 2,750 card shoppers in the UK.
Resonant brand meaningHelp people put money back into their
pockets, without compromising on the
most meaningful moments in their lives
Better at what mattersCard Factory is ranked #1 by shoppers
on ‘wide range of cards’, which is the
single most important choice factor1
Commanding market leadershipDistinct brand and strong customer
ratings translate into selling 1 in every
3 greeting cards in the UK1
Sustainable competitive advantage
5
Design
Retailing
Manufacturing60creative designers andverse writers inWakefield, Yorkshire
190 millioncards manufactured per
year in Baildon, Yorkshire
>1,800 distribution points includingmore than 1,000 retail stores
Challenges we have faced
6
Card volume reduction
YoY (1-2)% volume
No evidence of acceleration
Covid-19 disruption
Store labour costs
>20% of sales
Minimum wage main rate has increased 38% since 2014
Currency devaluation
$100m foreign currency purchases per annum
GBP to USD down 27% since 2014
Online shopping
Year on year channel shift
Fewer competitive advantages
Profit chosen over growth
Decline of high street
Legacy estate in locations less favoured by shoppers
Demand migration to impulse missions
Demographic renewal
Different giving occasions
‘No occasion’ giving
Product innovation
7
So what’s new?Historical four pillar strategy
Like-for-like growth
New store rollout
Business efficiencies
Online development
01
02
04
03
Moving into a new phase of growth
Sector-leading card
shopper insights drive
improved performance01Winning card-led retail
proposition
02New channels,
formats, countries
and routes to market
Available in more places,
however customers shop
Ingrained, defensible
competitive advantages03Advantaged, robust and
scalable central model
Winning card-led
retail proposition
8
Strategy frameworkHelping customers celebrate their life moments –
Affordable and available for everyone.
01
02
03
Available in more
places, however
customers shop
Advantaged,
robust and scalable
central model
Leadership in
card choice
Innovation
and authority in
complementary
categories
UK&I store
estate
New retail
formats
Strategic
international
markets
Rest of
the world
Distinctive and
defensible pricing
strategy
Growth in under-
penetrated customer
segments
UK
partnerships
E-commerce
and multi
channel
Sector-leading
shopper insight
In-house manufacturing
and supplyLowest cost to operate
Leadership,
engagement
and capability
Positive impact
programme
Market context
Section 1
9
Pierre Hyde
Card giving is ingrained in British cultureUK Card Penetration by Demographic(%)1,2
By Gender:
By Age:
By Household Income:
By Region:
79 73 75
Female Male Other
68 76 75 78 79 80
55-6445-5416-24 25-34 65+35-44
6175 76 80 82
£20-30k£10-20kUnder £10k £30-40k Over £40k
75 75 76 79 78 78 74 69
MidlandsWalesNorthern Ireland
Scotland South England
North England
East England
London
Card Penetration by Country(%)1
76
53
50
46
41
UK
Canada
USA
Australia
New Zealand
1Penetration refers to % of adults who have purchased at least 1 greeting card in last 12 months. Market surveys conducted by Card Factory and Dynata in 2019 and 2020. 2Internal modelling.
10
Historical Forecast Historical Forecast
Cards declining -1% pa, mix changingUK Greeting Card Volume, 2017-24F(m)1,2
UK Greeting Card Value, 2017-24F(£m)1,2
862 837804
652698 684 667 652
4251
71
176131 143 150 153
828
202420212017 2018 2019 20232020 2022
816
Online
Stores
806
903 888 875
829 827
-2%
-5%0% -1%
943 990 980 973
102 128177
439 318 340 352 357
1,324
1,223
1,3301,334
2017
1,206
1,006
2018
1,158
2019 2020 20242021 2022 2023
1,326
Online
Stores
1,3351,382
1,331 1,330
0%+4% -4%
0%
1Internal market modelling, using data from Card Factory Market Tracker 2020 and validated against modelling by OC&C Strategy Consultants over several years.
Includes inputs from third parties e.g. GCA, Kantar, Nielsen. 2Excludes multipacks / boxed cards.11
Shopper preferences are evolving
12
Occasion shiftGrowth in new and non-standard occasions, and in buying cards for no particular occasion
Decline in traditional occasions, particularly Christmas
Mission shiftMore than 80% of cards are purchased on planned missions
Growth in ‘impulse’ missions in which the card purchase is unplanned
Gives rise to ‘convenience’ as a purchasing criterion
Channel shiftOnline growing from a small base (c.8% of volume in 20191)
Distinct customer characteristics, criteria and behaviours
Covid-19 step-change: up to 40-50% of card volume during ‘lockdown’2
1Card Factory Market Tracker 2020, validated against modelling by OC&C Strategy Consultants over several years. Excludes multipacks / boxed cards.2Internal modelling.
Among greeting card shoppers, behaviours differ significantly by:
Segmentation predicts behaviour
13
GenderFemales buy more cards
Males spend more per card
ChildrenPeople who have had children buy more cards
Continues after the children leave home
Attitude to valueInfluences how much is spent
Influences which shops are chosen
These variables are
strongerin explaining behaviours than
traditional demographic indicators such as age
and income
14
Example customer segments
AngieFamily-focused
Cute, sentimental styles
26 cards per year
£1.16 per card
Chooses on price, value and range
Also shops at B&M, Asda
17%
volume
55%
share
FrankOlder and higher income
For friends and family
20 cards per year
£1.86 per card
Chooses on range, availability and quality
Also shops at Sainsbury’s, Paperchase
11%
volume
18%
share
Duty-driven
Less interested, less engaged
14 cards per year
£1.63 per card
Chooses on convenient location, range and availability
Also shops at WHSmith, Tesco
Ian
10%
volume
31%
share
15
Card Factory is uniquely positioned
Other specialists(20-25%)
Shopper Ratings for Wide Range of Cards and Value for Money1,2
(Av. Score; % Volume Share)
1Data from Card Factory Market Tracker 2020. 2Online-only retailers not included in chart as they have different buying criteria and results are not equivalent.
Discounters(5-10%)
Grocers andconvenience
(30-35%)
3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4
4.0
3.5
4.5
Average Shopper Rating: wide range of cards1
Ave
rag
e S
ho
pp
er
Ra
tin
g:
va
lue
fo
r m
on
ey
1
Bubble size = volume share
Not shown: online-only players(<5%)
Card Factory(33%)
Winning card-led retail proposition
Section 2
16
Adam Dury
17
Strategy framework
Winning card-led
retail proposition
Helping customers celebrate their life moments –
Affordable and available for everyone.
01
02
03
Available in more
places, however
customers shop
Advantaged,
robust and scalable
central model
Leadership in
card choice
Innovation
and authority in
complementary
categories
UK&I store
estate
New retail
formats
Strategic
international
markets
Rest of
the world
Distinctive and
defensible pricing
strategy
Growth in under-
penetrated customer
segments
UK
partnerships
E-commerce
and multi
channel
Sector-leading
shopper insight
In-house manufacturing
and supplyLowest cost to operate
Leadership,
engagement and
capability
Positive impact
programme
Proposition built for shoppers’ needs
Increasing market share requires leadership in card choice
Over 25m shoppers each year: more data than competitors
Proprietary customer segmentation and primary research
Comprehensive NPD utilising vertically integrated model
Investment in people and restructuring commercial function
Card category growth is highly margin accretive
18
Wide range of cards
Availability of cards
Convenient location for me
Value for money
General quality of cards
Ease of finding the card I want
General style of cards
Specific ranges of cards
Cards at different price points
Low prices
Look and feel of the shop
Service from store staff
Range of complementary products
Recognised brand name of retailer
Customer Choice Criteria, 20191
Inc
rea
sin
g im
po
rtan
ce
to
cu
sto
me
rs
1
2
1
2
1
1
3
1
Card Factory Score2
Top in Market
Second in Market
Third in Market
1
2
3
1Data from Card Factory Market Tracker 2020. Purchasing criteria are for out-of-home shopping only (not online). Scores are constructed by ascribing numerical values to defined qualitative labels,
e.g. “Very Important” = 10 points, “Not Important At All” = 0 points. 2Competitors are scored out of 5 for each criterion. Arithmetic average of scores by shoppers who use it as their main shop, and
other shoppers, is shown.
18
Giving more space to bestsellers
Vertical OptimisationFor the amount of space allocated to
each range of cards, maximise the
bestselling SKUs within that range
Horizontal OptimisationWithin the total space dedicated to
cards, reorganise so that more of it is
made available to faster-selling ranges
Increase Card SpaceEnsure that customers have the widest
range of card choice across the estate;
in smaller stores this means reducing
other categories
Realign Seasonal Merchandising TimingTake a more dynamic approach to
launching seasonal ranges into stores,
so that valuable space is not taken away
too early from everyday card ranges
1919
20
Realign seasonal merchandising timing
Seasonal card ranges go out too early
Opportunity cost in cutting back everyday range
Christmas 2020: expect 3x volume density in affected racks
Approach to be replicated for all seasons
Potential size of prize up to £7.5m annual sales (ex VAT)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Card Volume per Rack per Day (Stores Only)(#, 7 Day Moving Average)
Christmas
Everyday
July JanuaryAugust September October November December
Christmas cards on
sale from 13 August
Christmas rate of sale overtook
Everyday in mid November
21
Maximise bestselling SKUs in ranges
Analysis showed inconsistent performance in card volume per rack for different sized stores
Manual merchandising approach prioritised operational efficiency
New data-led approach maximises availability of bestselling SKUs from each range in all stores
Piloted approach in humour range: +10% LFL
Potential size of prize up to £7.5m annual sales (ex VAT)
Cards per Rack by Racks in Store – Female Cards (Stores Only)(k)
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
10
8
12
14
Number ofCard Racksin Store
Card Volumeper Rack
Larger stores have more racks
Rate of sale per rack was
strongest in the larger stores
(potentially reflecting the better
range of choice)
Narrower assortments should
focus on bestsellers, which
would normally deliver
increased rate of sale
22
Price increases to offset cost inflation
History of maintaining price points in well-recognised architecture
No longer sufficient against escalating costs
trialing shows we can increase prices without losing volume
We will aim to offset cost inflation through directly repricing lines
Identified first batch of sticker-price changes for FY21 and completed first full rollout of 59p to 69p pre-lockdown
Customer response will be closely monitored
Up to £6m contribution per annum from already identified changes, of which £2.5-3.0m from the 69p change already executed
Results of 59p to 69p Regional Trial(% Volume Moved)
Original Prices
New Prices
79p
29p
79p
69p
29p
98%
0.5%
1.5%
59p
Authoritative new categoriesToday customers visit primarily for card-led missions
Offer in complementary ranges is popular but too fragmented
Opportunity to narrow category breadth and provide greater authority
Trialing range depth in balloons showed we can drive incremental footfall
Reviews identified other areas to strategically drive growth
23
24
LFL +3% per annumStore Like for Like Growth(%)
-0.5-0.7
FY23-FY25Target
FY19A FY20A FY21-FY22
+c.3 pa
Covid-
impacted
years
Available in more places, however customers shop
Section 3
25
Kris Lee Chris BeckGlyn Williams
26
Strategy framework
26
Winning card-led
retail proposition
Helping customers celebrate their life moments –
Affordable and available for everyone.
01
02
03
Available in more
places, however
customers shop
Advantaged,
robust and scalable
central model
Leadership in
card choice
Innovation
and authority in
complementary
categories
UK&I store
estate
New retail
formats
Strategic
international
markets
Rest of
the world
Distinctive and
defensible pricing
strategy
Growth in under-
penetrated customer
segments
UK
partnerships
E-commerce
and multi
channel
Sector-leading
shopper insight
In-house manufacturing
and supplyLowest cost to operate
Leadership,
engagement and
capability
Positive impact
programme
27
New store openings are profitable
Assumptions for new store openings
Store-specific sales forecast and cannibalisationforecast
Wage costs inflate by c.5% pa without mitigating actions
c.£65k capital expenditure for store fit-out
Financial hurdles
Year 1 contribution >£40k; Year 3 >£60k
Capex payback period <24 months
NPV / IRR vs other potential investments
Forecast Cumulative Contribution v Capex by Store Cohort(£m)
Pre-Covid
Number of
Openings47 51 58 51 54 55 47
-5
31
-3 -3-4
FY14
36
FY15
38
FY16
17
-3-3
FY17
21
FY18 FY19
20
-4
17
FY20
ForecastCumulativeContributionto Maturity
CapitalExpenditure
Targeting 1,100 stores in UK&I
28
Majority of stores re-opened following lockdown, c.20 closures
New store openings: 11 in FY21, then further c.140; payback criteria maintained
c.50 proactive closures over 4 years where stores are modelled to become unprofitable
Chart excludes c.25 relocations – net nil for store numbers
c.9% annualised rent savings assumed upon lease events
Mitigating actions could improve position
1,022 1,013
FY20 Stores
Plan Closures
+11
Plan Openings
FY21 Openings
-20
FY21 Stores
FY21 Closures
+c.140-c.50
Target Stores
c.1,100
Number of Card Factory Stores, UK & Ireland(#)
Core Card Factory only,
does not include new formats
Case study: Preston
29 1Mapping by Javelin Group. 2FY20 or annualised.
Map shows town centre of Preston
Card Factory has 3 stores in the town centre, plus 1 on the outskirts (not shown)
Each is located in a distinct retail zone (left)
Shoppers are unwilling to travel far for cards
However, two stores are too close together; one will close
Town centre clearly supports the 2 remaining stores, and will likely retain some of the sales from the closed store
Same principles apply to partnerships, with no evidence of any cannibalisation because mission sets are different
217,000
462,000
77,000
Volume of Cards Sold per Preston Store1,2
(#)
1.5 miles,
30 min walk
387,000
30
Share gain in UK stores channelGroup Share of UK Single Greeting Cards – Stores Channel(% by Volume)
Progressive increase in volume share within stores channel
Combination of commercial initiatives and adding more locations
Further growth via partnerships; lower volume per distribution point
34%35%
Stores
2018(FY19)
RetailPartnerships
2019(FY20)
2024(FY25)
Target53%
31
Strategy framework
Winning card-led
retail proposition
Helping customers celebrate their life moments –
Affordable and available for everyone.
01
02
03
Available in more
places, however
customers shop
Advantaged,
robust and scalable
central model
Leadership in
card choice
Innovation
and authority in
complementary
categories
UK&I store
estate
New retail
formats
Strategic
international
markets
Rest of
the world
Distinctive and
defensible pricing
strategy
Growth in under-
penetrated customer
segments
UK
partnerships
E-commerce
and multi
channel
Sector-leading
shopper insight
In-house manufacturing
and supplyLowest cost to operate
Leadership,
engagement and
capability
Positive impact
programme
32
Partnerships access incremental volume
Provide access to:impulse missions increasing share of existing customers
new customers who cannot otherwise access Card Factory
Collaborative working: to capture existing demand
to grow volumes and efficiencies
Proven model:through partnership with Aldi (and trialing with Matalan)
operating in over 500 stores
Aldi, UK
33
Insight-led category solutionCard Factory provides insight and tools to operate a low cost model
Access to existing designs that resonate with customers
Card Factory branded or own label
Contractual models tested as supply arrangements and franchises
No contract will be PBT rate dilutive to the group
Matalan, UK
Market research in all major international markets during 2019/20
Scale markets are US, Canada and Australia (plus New Zealand)
Market volumes are stable, card prices are generally high
No evidence of disruption at scale by a credible value-led player
Identification of suitable partner brands to approach
34
International: ripe for disruption
34
Higher quality
Higher price
Lower quality
Lower price
3.5
4.0
4.5
3.5 4.0 4.5
Customer Rating for Price
Customer Rating
for Quality
Card Factory UK
The Reject Shop
Competitive Environment – Australia Example(Bubble Size = % Visited LTM)
Entry model
35
Product-led: to enter international markets and create brand recognition
Partner with retailers of some scale that want to grow more market share
Partnering provides access to footfall-driving consumer brands
No or low capex models when compared to own stores
Earnings enhancing driven by market share gain and a lean operating model
Picture
The Reject Shop, Australia
36
The Reject Shop in AustraliaEstablished card offering, large space allocation, but undifferentiated against competitors
Single cards category solution, branded Card Factory
Roll out to 355 concessions completed in Q1 2020
Significant growth in volumes and market share
Five year contract
37
Strategy framework
Winning card-led
retail proposition
Helping customers celebrate their life moments –
Affordable and available for everyone.
01
02
03
Available in more
places, however
customers shop
Advantaged,
robust and scalable
central model
Leadership in
card choice
Innovation
and authority in
complementary
categories
UK&I store
estate
New retail
formats
Strategic
international
markets
Rest of
the world
Distinctive and
defensible pricing
strategy
Growth in under-
penetrated customer
segments
UK
partnerships
E-commerce
and multi
channel
Sector-leading
shopper insight
In-house manufacturing
and supplyLowest cost to operate
Leadership,
engagement and
capability
Positive impact
programme
38
Standalone e-commerce offering2012 – Site launch2015 – Migration and relaunch
2017/18 – Range & Merchandising 2019/20 – New Platform Development
39
Lockdown brought scale and challenge
+69%
+121%
+61%
Lockdown23 March to 14 June
Year to Date
Since Lockdown15 June to 19 July
Online Sales Growth1, FY21(%)
1Includes Card Factory and Getting Personal. For 3 days to 19 July, Getting Personal data are not yet available and have been estimated on a prudent basis.
200,000 new customers in 8 weeks
Different customer mix
Record daily volumes
Challenging to service demand
Fulfilment investments brought forward
‘Halo’ effect continuing post-lockdown
40
New platform and propositionNew Foundations Market Leading Card Offer Destination to Celebrate
Life Moments
41
Integration of Getting PersonalIn
cre
as
ing
pri
ce
po
int
Increasing diversification beyond cards
Brand Positioning(Conceptual)
Acquired in 2011, specialises in personalised gifts
Ceased to be profitable as independent business
Will be managed as a complementary brand with a second store-front on the Card Factory platform
Will benefit from shared cost base
42
Evolving towards multichannelCurrently Card Factory Online can only be shopped through the website and for home (or recipient) delivery
Adding convenience to the proposition:
– Launching mobile app by end of FY21
– Click and collect and in-store printing trials underway
Multichannel propositions provide differentiation vs online-only operators
Customers enabled to shop ‘their way’: seamlessly across channels to unlock full brand potential and scale
43
Share gain in growing online channel
3%2%
Target11%
2018(FY19)
2019(FY20)
2024(FY25)
Group Share of UK Single Greeting Cards – Online Channel(% by Volume)
FY20 sales: £19.4m, majority from gifting categories through Getting Personal
Growth is concentrated in Card Factory
Online card market projected to double in value 2019-24
Share gain from 2% to 11% of online card volume
– New platform, advantaged proposition and multichannel elements provide differentiation
– Increased marketing supports growth
FY25 sales target: £60m, increasing proportion from cards
Margin increases with scale; target PBT to match or exceed stores channel
– 95% volume manufactured in-house
– Fulfilment efficiencies
Advantaged, robust and scalable central model
Section 4
44
Andrew Wasley Paul Moody
45
Strategy framework
Winning card-led
retail proposition
Helping customers celebrate their life moments –
Affordable and available for everyone.
01
02
03
Available in more
places, however
customers shop
Advantaged,
robust and scalable
central model
Leadership in
card choice
Innovation
and authority in
complementary
categories
UK&I store
estate
New retail
formats
Strategic
international
markets
Rest of
the world
Distinctive and
defensible pricing
strategy
Growth in under-
penetrated customer
segments
UK
partnerships
E-commerce
and multi
channel
Sector-leading
shopper insight
In-house manufacturing
and supplyLowest cost to operate
Leadership,
engagement and
capability
Positive impact
programme
46
Print manufacturing Leading-edge manufacturing techniques
£5m capex was invested across FY19 and FY20 to increase production quality and maintain unit costs against headwinds
c.£17m capex planned across FY22-25
– Increase capacity
– Permanently ‘repatriate’ 60m cards per annum, through development of robotic manufacturing to replace ‘handmade’ product elements
– Continually develop automation
Card Factory store volumes will be 75% UK-produced
47
Online fulfilmentInvestment into automation with proven partner
Reduction in touchpoints for fulfilment
Increased readiness for spikes
Reduced cost to serve
Capex payback 24-36 months
48
WarehousingClosed down 7 third-party storage units
Amalgamation into 2 central DCs, £1.6m annual savings
Voice picking technology installed in both DCs with further £800k annual savings and platform for further opportunities
Strategy framework
4949
Winning card-led
retail proposition
Helping customers celebrate their life moments –
Affordable and available for everyone.
01
02
03
Available in more
places, however
customers shop
Advantaged,
robust and scalable
central model
Leadership in
card choice
Innovation
and authority in
complementary
categories
UK&I store
estate
New retail
formats
Strategic
international
markets
Rest of
the world
Distinctive and
defensible pricing
strategy
Growth in under-
penetrated customer
segments
UK
partnerships
E-commerce
and multi
channel
Sector-leading
shopper insight
In-house manufacturing
and supplyLowest cost to operate
Leadership,
engagement and
capability
Positive impact
programme
50
Stock management improvementsLeverage investments in technology to reduce costs, reduce working capital and drive sales through increased on-shelf availability
TechnologyLine level stock at store level aligned with existing EPOS and auto replenishment solutions
StockholdingReduce in distribution centre through store visibility, eliminate need for stock in stock rooms for everyday trading, shape merchandising displays to hold stock proportionate to sales, and only pick and dispatch to store with full pallets or cartons
ColleagueReduce touchpoints for ordering, receiving, replenishment to shop floor, and stocktaking
51
End-to-end ERP implementationCurrent State
3 ERP solutions
Covering a narrow subset of the business
Highly customised and inefficient
Supplemented with many manual processes
End of life in 2021 / 2022
Future State
Single ERP solution
Covering core business functions, including
– Finance
– Supply Chain
– Buying & Merchandising
– Manufacturing
– HR
Best practice processes to drive quality and efficiency
Foundation for our business aspirations
Quality
Cost
Efficiency
Conceptual
Financial profile
Section 5
52
Kris Lee
Our highlights
Revenue target Underlying PBT2 target
53
c.£635m
Revenue from growth channels1
c.20%
Distribution points target
c.5,600
FY25
of FY25 total
FY25
Market share target
c.45% UK card volume
1 Online & Multichannel and Retail Partnerships 2 After accounting for IFRS 16 Leases
c.£105m
Low capex absorption
c.£16mUnderlying PBT2 to leverage range
1.2 – 2.6x
per annum (5 yrs)
FY25
Free cash flow / underlying PBT ratio
c.80% Average FY23-FY25
54
Targets
1 Presented on an underlying basis and includes the expected impact of IFRS-16 Leases 2 Free Cash Flow excl. Dividends & Funding Movements
Revenue by Channel (£m) FY17A FY18A FY19A FY20A FY25 Target
Stores (UK & Ireland) 378.9 401.7 415.6 429.1 500
Online & Multichannel 19.3 20.4 20.4 19.4 60
Partnerships (UK & International) - - - 3.0 75
Group Total 398.2 422.1 436.0 451.5 635
Profit Before Tax1 (£m) FY17A FY18A FY19A FY20A FY25 Target
Stores (UK & Ireland) 84.6 79.9 76.5 68.0 80
Online & Multichannel 1.8 2.0 (0.3) (1.1) 10
Partnerships (UK & International) - - - 0.4 15
Group Total 86.4 81.9 76.2 67.3 105
Free Cash Flow2 / PBT FY17A FY18A FY19A FY20A FY25 Target
Group Total 80% 84% 84% 72% 80%
Capex (£m) FY17A FY18A FY19A FY20A FY25 Target
Group Total 13.1 10.4 12.0 14.5 12
Capex front-loaded,
average £16m pa
over FY21-25
55
LFL sales growth
Strategic Plan UK&I Stores LFL Sales Growth(% YoY)
-0.5-0.7
FY21-FY22FY19A
+c.3 pa
FY20A FY23-FY25Target
FY21 and FY22
Covid impacts:
– Store closure period
– Transactions recovery path
– Partially offset by higher ABV
– Social distancing
Underlying footfall reductions
Commercial initiatives
Inflationary price increases
FY23 to FY25
Small reduction in market size and lasting shift to online produce step-down in footfall expectations
Underlying footfall reductions continue
Commercial initiatives
Inflationary price increases
Covid-
impacted
years
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More points of distribution
Strategic Plan Number of Retail Sites(k)
40%
68%
1.5
9%
FY25 Target
32%
FY19A
91%
FY20A
40%
20%
International
Card Factory Stores
UK Partnerships& Other
1.1
5.6 Targeting 3-4x expansion of total distribution points from c.1,500 in FY20, across UK and international markets1
Retail partners’ sites outside our own estate will make up the bulk of distribution points, but group revenue per partner distribution point is significantly lower
Indicative
1 Since year end the number of distribution points has increased from c.1,500 to over 1,800 because of the rollout of concessions in Australia.
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Diversification of income sources
95% 95%
79%
5% 4%
FY25 Target
c.12%
c.10%
FY19A FY20A
1% Online
Retail Partnerships
Stores (UK&I)1
436 452 c.635
Strategic Plan Sales (Net) Breakdown by Channel(£m, %)
Business de-risked by reducing reliance on UK&I Stores channel
Entering new geographies of strategic scale, including the US, via retail partnerships
Supplementing e-commerce channel with new multichannel propositions that create differentiation
1Includes Printcraft third party sales (<£1m) and gift card sales commission (<£1m)
Renewed market share growth
By Volume(%, m cards)
By Value(%, £bn)
20% 20%31%
2019 (FY20)
1.3
2018 (FY19)
1.3
2024 (FY25)Target
1.3
32% 33%
2019 (FY20)2018 (FY19) 2024 (FY25)Target
45%
888 875 806
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Card Factory Group Share of UK Single Greeting Cards
59
Return to card-led focus
Strategic Plan Sales (Net) Breakdown by Category(%)
Most footfall is driven by card-led missions
Authoritative range width to be in all store sizes
Increasing proportion to be produced in-house
Highest-margin category
55% 54%59%
45% 46%41%
GreetingCards
FY19A
ComplementaryCategories
FY20A FY25Target
Majority of greeting cards are designed and manufactured in house: high product margin
Complementary ranges include gift wrap, bags and boxes, balloons, party products, gifting and other sub-categories
Ancillary products are stamps and carrier bags
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Greeting cards are highest margin
84%
63%
57%
6%
SingleGreeting
Cards
ComplementaryCategories excl.
Ancillary Products
Boxed Greeting Cards
AncillaryProducts
Stores (UK & Ireland) Product Margin Rate1 by Category, FY20A(%)
52%
Stores Sales
Participation
43%
2%
3%
1Product margin before stock loss and provisions
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Management of product margin
Strategic Plan Product Margin Rate Evolution, FY20 v FY25(%)
Stores product rate margin improvement in plan
Channel mix shifts away from UK stores towards those with structurally lower product margins
Results in dilution of group product margin rate
70%
74%
67%4%
FY25 GroupTarget
(4%)
Growth in Online &
Multichannel
FY20 Stores (UK&I)
(3%)
FY25 Stores (UK&I)Target
Margin Improvements
Growth in Retail
Partnerships
New channels offer strong margins
Comparative Economics by Channel – ‘Today’ (% of Card Factory Revenue)
In partnerships, Card Factory’s revenue is the wholesale rather than retail sales – in the chart, percentages relate to the wholesale sales
In online, although there are no property or store labour costs, order fulfilment costs are significant; these will reduce with scale
Stores remains most profitable channel per unit of retail sales
Average set-up capex for a new store is c.£65k, while that for incremental online sales and partnerships stores is minimal
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16% 16%
52%
22%12%
Stores (UK & Ireland) Online & Multichannel
Retail Partnerships
ProfitContribution
VAT
DirectCosts
COGS
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Costs kept well controlled
Strategic Plan Operating Costs Evolution(% of Net Sales)
Continued step-ups in National Living Wage
Improved retail operating model
Small increases in Support Centre & IT costs
Managed realignment of total overhead
Central cost savings enabled by new ERP implementation and other efficiencies
Central Costs1
49
FY19A FY20A
Warehouse and Distribution
Property
FY25
Marketing
Other Direct Costs
Store Wages
5152
1Mainly support centre overhead and IT costs
Dividends:
• £344m returned to shareholders
• No dividends in FY21
• Continued low working capital
• Capital expenditure to support the growth strategy
• Return to shareholder distribution when prudently possible
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Liquidity, dividends and capital policy
Capital policy:
No change to capital policy
Short-term peaks outside leverage range due to Covid-19
Liquidity:
• £200m RCF facility
• Option to access CCFF
• Good cash management in Covid response
• New covenants
• Dividend and M&A restrictions
• Net debt £144m as at 19 July
Summary
Section 6
65
Paul Moody
66
Strategy framework
Winning card-led
retail proposition
Helping customers celebrate their life moments –
Affordable and available for everyone.
01
02
03
Available in more
places, however
customers shop
Advantaged,
robust and scalable
central model
Leadership in
card choice
Innovation
and authority in
complementary
categories
UK&I store
estate
New retail
formats
Strategic
international
markets
Rest of
the world
Distinctive and
defensible pricing
strategy
Growth in under-
penetrated customer
segments
UK
partnerships
E-commerce
and multi
channel
Sector-leading
shopper insight
In-house manufacturing
and supplyLowest cost to operate
Leadership,
engagement
and capability
Positive impact
programme
Our strategyTo be a robust, scalable and sustainable international greeting card business, with diversified income sources
Its objectivesTo make Card Factory the first choice for cards –everywhere, and for all occasions
To set us on the path to being recognised as the world’s best greeting card retailer
Robust, scalable and sustainable
Its outcomesThis strategy will deliver balanced outcomes across the four key areas of our business:
– A superior proposition for customers
– Meaningful career opportunities for our people
– Attractive returns for shareholders
– Positive impacts on the world around us
Investment case
Popular and embedded brand, already demonstrating
ability to confer authority beyond greeting cards
Virtuous circle of design, manufacturing and retail provides barriers to entry
Only credible card specialist at scale
Cash generative model with diversifying income sources
Identified and proven sources of new growth
Clear pathway to restore sales and profit growth in
the core
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Q&A
69