home of the future - builders' show...3 exhibit 1 projected population of the us, by race and...
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1
HOME OF THE FUTUREFebruary 9, 2007
Orlando, FL
Presented at IBS 2007
by
GOPAL AHLUWALIAStaff Vice President - Research
Economics GroupNational Association of Home Builders
www.nahb.org
2
Demographic Changes
3
Exhibit 1Projected Population of the US, By Race and Hispanic Origin
Percent of Total Population
201520102000
16.615.512.6Hispanic
(of any race)
3.23.02.5All other races
5.04.63.8Asian alone
13.313.112.7Black alone
63.2%65.1%69.4%White alone, not Hispanic
322,371308,936282,125Population
(in thousands)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Compiled by NAHB Economics Group.
4
Exhibit 2Projected Population Change in the US, By Race and Hispanic Origin
Percent Change
26,86926,811Numerical Change (in thousands)
25.134.1Hispanic
(of any race)
27.930.7All other races
26.333.3Asian alone
12.112.9Black alone
2.4%2.8%White alone, not Hispanic
2010-20202000-2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Compiled by NAHB Economics Group.
5
Exhibit 3Number Per Households By Type, Race and Hispanic Origin:
1995 to 2015
3.413.472.742.492.562010
3.36
3.46
3.51
3.58
HISPANIC ORIGIN (of any
race)
3.45
3.49
3.50
3.52
ASIAN AND PACIFIC
ISLANDER
2.71
2.77
2.81
2.85
BLACK
2.462.522015
2.522.592005
2.542.612000
2.562.621995
WHITETOTALYear
Average Number of Persons Per Household
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Compiled by NAHB Economics Group.
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Changing New Homes
7
Exhibit 4Median and Average Square Feet of Floor Area in Single Family Homes
Completed
1,450
1,600
1,750
1,900
2,050
2,200
2,350
2,500
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006*
Squa
re F
eet
Median
Average
Source: US Census Bureau. Compiled by NAHB Economics(*) Based on the first three quarter of 2006
8
Exhibit 5Average Square Feet of Floor Area in Single Family Homes Completed
1,715
1,670
1,615
1,595
1,660
2,434
2,463
2,310
2,556
2,434
2,472
2,496
2,277
2,585
2,459
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
West
South
Midwest
Northeast
U.S.
2006*20051973
Source: US Census Bureau. Compiled by NAHB Economics(*) Based on the first three quarter of 2006
9
Exhibit 6Single Family Homes Completed with 3 Bathrooms or More
11%
13%
8%
12%
30%
27%
21%
21%
26%
17%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
West
South
Midwest
Northeast
U.S.
2005
1987
Source: US Census Bureau, Characteristics of New Housing. Compiled by NAHB Economics
10
Exhibit 7Single Family Homes Completed with 4 Bedrooms or More
21%
21%
26%
23%
45%
40%
32%
36%
39%
29%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
West
South
Midwest
Northeast
U.S.
2005
1973
Source: US Census Bureau, Characteristics of New Housing. Compiled by NAHB Economics
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Exhibit 8Single Family Homes Completed with One or More Fireplace
40%
37%
47%
44%
61%
49%
59%
57%
55%
56%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
West
South
Midwest
Northeast
U.S.
2005
1973
Source: US Census Bureau, Characteristics of New Housing. Compiled by NAHB Economics
12
Exhibit 9Number of Stories in Single Family Homes Completed
55%
23%
44%
67% 10%
1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2005
1973
1 story 2 stories or more Split level
Source: US Census Bureau, Characteristics of New Housing. Compiled by NAHB Economics
13
Exhibit 10Single Family Homes Completed With Outdoor Features
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Patio
Deck
Porch
Source: US Census Bureau, Characteristics of New Housing. Compiled by NAHB Economics
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HOME OF THE FUTURE
HOME OF THE FUTURE REPORT IS BASED ON 60 INTERVIEWS WITH
ARCHITECTS, DESIGNERS, MANUFACTURERS AND MARKETING
EXPERTS AND ALSO ON RESPONSES TO AN EXTENSIVE SURVEY
QUESTIONNAIRE SENT TO A SELECTED SAMPLE OF ARCHITECTS, DESIGNERS,
MANUFACTURERS AND MARKETING EXPERTS
15
Exhibit 11INSIDE OF THE HOME BY 2015
65%
78%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Upscale Home
Average Home
Somewhat to Significantly Different
57%
67%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Upscale Home
Average Home
Somewhat to Significantly Different
OUTSIDE OF THE HOME BY 2015
16
Exhibit 12Will Changes to Homes in the Next Decade Be More Significant/Greater than in
the Past 10 Years?
About the same 41%
Yes 40%
No 19%
• Accessibility issues• Emphasis on technology• Greener Construction materials• Changing demographics, Aging population and growing
environmental concerns will continue to cause more changes.
Comments
17
Exhibit 13Compared to Today, Type of Housing Design More Commonly Built in 2015
(Percent of Respondents)Average Home
65%
34%
1%
0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75%
Two-story
One-story
Split level
Upscale Home
56%
41%
3%
0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75%
Two-story
One-story
Split level
2005 Census Data: Split level *One story 44%Two stories or more 55%
(*) Less than one percent.
18
Exhibit 14SIZE OF THE HOME
• Average size of new single-family home in 2005:
2,434 square feet
• Expected size of new single-family home in 2015:
Average: 2,300 – 2,500 square feetMedian: 2,330 square feet
19
Exhibit 15aAreas of the Home Likely to Increase, Decrease, or Stay the Same As a Share of Total Floor Area
during the Next 10 Years
Average Home
47%
47%
49%
50%
51%
56%
58%
68%
65%
67%
69%
79%
84%
67%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Dining Room
Closet Spaces
Master Bedroom
Parking Garage(s)
Master Bedroom Bath
Kitchen
Laundry Room
Living Room
Mud Room
Entry Foyer
Other Bedrooms
Basement
Other Bedroom Baths
Family RoomMost
Likely to Increase
Most Likely to Decrease
About the Same
DividedOpinion
20
Exhibit 15bAreas of the Home Likely to Increase, Decrease, or Stay the Same As a Share of Total Floor Area
during the Next 10 Years
Upscale Home
48%
50%
51%
55%
55%
58%
63%
68%
70%
71%
73%
77%
68%
72%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Master Bedroom
Living Room
Master Bedroom Bath
Laundry Room
Parking Garage(s)
Closet Spaces
Dining Room
Mud Room
Other Bedrooms
Other Bedroom Baths
Entry Foyer
Basement
Kitchen
Family Room Most Likely to Increase
Divided Opinion
About the Same
21
Exhibit 16ENTRY FOYER
One Story vs. Two StoryAverage Home
80%
20%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
One-story Two-story
Upscale Home
30%
70%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
One-story Two-story
22
Average Home82%
18%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
One-story Two-story
Upscale Home
45%55%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
One-story Two-story
Exhibit 17FAMILY ROOM
One Story vs. Two Story
23
Exhibit 18FUTURE OF LIVING ROOM
Average Home
13%
31%
55%
0% 25% 50% 75%
Stay as is
Become parlor/retreat/library or music room
Vanish
Upscale Home
28%
67%
4%
0% 25% 50% 75%
Stay as is
Become parlor/retreat/library or music room
Vanish
24
Rating on a scale of 1 to 5, 1=Not at all critical, 5=Very Critical
Exhibit 19aRating of Need for Items/Features in New Homes in Next 10 Years
Average Home
73%
75%
78%
83%
90%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Two car garage
Location of the home
Design
Low maintenanceExteriors
Family room
% Rated 4 or 5
25
Rating on a scale of 1 to 5, 1=Not at all critical, 5=Very Critical
Exhibit 19bRating of Need for Items/Features in New Homes in Next 10 Years
Upscale Home
93%
94%
96%
97%
98%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Security
Home office
Location of thehome
Family room
Design
% Rated 4 or 5
26
Exhibit 20CEILING HEIGHT
• Ceiling height in an average home has been rising for the past 10 years.
• By 2015, it is expected that most average homes will have 9’ ceiling on the first floor and some may even have 10’ ceiling.
• Upscale homes will have at least 10’ standard ceiling (10’ to 12’ range) in entry level and a 9’standard ceiling on the second floor.
27
Rating on a scale of 1 to 5, 1=Not at all critical, 5=Very Critical
Exhibit 21aImportance of Amenities/Products in the KITCHEN
Average Home
65%
70%
72%
74%
76%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Size (floor area)
Table space for eating
Double sink
Cabinet space
Counter space
% Rated 4 or 5
28
Rating on a scale of 1 to 5, 1=Not at all critical, 5=Very Critical
Exhibit 21bImportance of Amenities/Products in the KITCHEN
Upscale Home
94%
94%
94%
96%
96%
96%
96%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Flooring
Walk-in pantry
Double sink
Counter space
Size (floor area)
Quality of appliances
Cabinet space
% Rated 4 or 5
29
Rating on a scale of 1 to 5, 1=Not at all critical, 5=Very Critical
Exhibit 22aImportance of Amenities/Products in the BATHROOM
Average Home
40%
45%
57%
61%
64%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Size
Linen closet
Large mirrors
Both shower stall & tub inmaster bedroom
Double vanity
% Rated 4 or 5
30
Upscale Home
88%
88%
94%
94%
94%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Linen closet
Large mirrors
Size
Both shower stall & tubin master bedroom
Double vanity
% Rated 4 or 5
Rating on a scale of 1 to 5, 1=Not at all critical, 5=Very Critical
Exhibit 22bImportance of Amenities/Products in the BATHROOM
31
Exhibit 23Demand for TWO MASTER BEDROOM SUITES by 2015
Rating on a scale of 1 to 5, 1= will decrease significantly, 5= will increase significantly
% Rated 4 or 5
62%
13%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Upscale Home
Average Home
32
Exhibit 24Demand for OUTSIDE KITCHEN
Rating on a scale of 1 to 5, 1= will not change, 5= will increase significantly
% Rated 4 or 5
18%
66%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Upscale
Average
33
Exhibit 25Demand for OUTSIDE KITCHEN FEATURES
Rating on a scale 1 to 5: 1= Will not change and 5=Will increase significantly% rating 4 or 5
Average Home
6%
12%
13%
15%
35%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Beerdispensers
/wine coolers
Cookingislands
Refrigerators
Sinks
Grills
Upscale Home
47%
58%
60%
65%
76%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Beerdispensers
/wine coolers
Refrigerators
Cookingislands
Sinks
Grills
34
Exhibit 26Demand for OUTSIDE ROOM FEATURES
Rating on a scale of 1 to 5: 1= will not change, 5= will increase significantly
% rating 4 or 5
Average Home
3%
6%
10%
13%
16%
17%
26%
28%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Patio Heating:Built in
Patio Heating:Portable
Decorative waterfeatures
Outdoor fireplaces
Ourdoor audio /TV equipment
Pools/spas
Outdoor lighting
Decking/patiocovers/enclosures
Upscale Home
27%
31%
57%
60%
70%
73%
74%
78%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Patio Heating:Portable
Patio Heating:Built in
Decorative waterfeatures
Pools/spas
Outdoorfireplaces
Outdoor lighting
Ourdoor audio/TVequipment
Decking/patiocovers/enclosures
35
Exhibit 27Number of Bathrooms Expected by 2015
AVERAGE HOME: 2 FULL and 1 HALFTO
3 FULL and 1 HALF
UPSCALE HOME: 3 FULL and 1 HALFTO
4 FULL and 2 HALF
36
Exhibit 28Features Offered in the Next 10 Years: Standard vs. Optional
68%
81%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Average Home
Upscale Home
Increase in the number of features offered as Standard and decrease in features
37
Exhibit 29Exterior Materials Most Likely to Be Used in 10 Years
Rating on a scale of 1 to 5: 1=most unlikely, 5=most likely% rating 4 or 5
Average Home
11%
11%
21%
23%
38%
44%
50%
53%
57%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Aluminum
Cedar
Wood
Artificial stucco
Stone
Stucco
Brick
Fiber cement
Vinyl
Upscale Home
0%
8%
33%
42%
44%
61%
76%
83%
97%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Aluminum
Vinyl
Artificialstucco
Cedar
Wood
Fiber cement
Stucco
Brick
Stone
38
Exhibit 30Standard Outdoor Features by 2015
Average Home
24%
42%
61%
70%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Rear porch
Deck
Patio
Front porch
Upscale Home
79%
61%
76%
79%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Rear porch
Deck
Patio
Front porch
39
Exhibit 31Location of Stairs
Average Home
39%
61%
0% 25% 50% 75%
Stairs willmove tothe backor side ofthe home
Stairs willstay in the
foyer
Upscale Home
56%
44%
0% 25% 50% 75%
Stairs willmove to theback or sideof the home
Stairs willstay in the
foyer
•Stairs will be more functional rather than a piece of decoration.
•Upscale homes will have two staircases.
40
Exhibit 32Front Doors by 2015
87%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Single door36" or 42"
wide withoutside lights
AVERAGE HOME
34%
39%
0% 15% 30% 45%
Double doorwith or
without sidelight
Single door42" wide with
side lights
UPSCALE HOME
•More single doors used in upscale housing, partly because of exterior design.
•Door size --- 3’ 6” wide doors, looks more elegant will be used extensively in place of a 3’ wide door.
•Side lights will be used (if there is a room).
•Upscale homes will have two side lights and one above the door.
OR
41
• Lighting driven by the market.• Chandelier in the dining and entry foyer• Definite trend towards recessed lighting• Recessed cans more in kitchen, media room,
finished basements.• Some unique hanging fixtures designed as
artwork.• Industry has not recognized power of mood
lighting.
Exhibit 33LIGHTING
42
• A trend away from white.
• A lot more interest in colors.
• Interior of home seeing bolder colors.
Exhibit 34COLORS
43
Exhibit 35Fiber Optic Network by 2015
Average Home
34%
66%
0% 50% 100%
No
Yes
Upscale Home
13%
87%
0% 50% 100%
No
Yes
44
Exhibit 36Electronic Features Standard in AVERAGE HOME by 2015
36%
43%
59%
61%
78%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Remote control fireplaces
Multi Zone controlled HVAC
Multiline phone system
Structured wiring system
Programmable thermostat
CommentsOnly basic technology will take hold in average home: security system, automatic lighting control, and energy management system.
Structured wiring is being installed in about 40% of new homes today, but use of wireless technology may enter housing market in big way.
45
Exhibit 37aElectronic Features Standard in UPSCALE HOME by 2015
75%
77%
80%
80%
80%
81%
86%
87%
88%
0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 90%
Lighting control system
Monitored burglar/fire/toxic gas alarm system
Instant hot water in bathrooms/kitchens
Structured wiring system
Programmable thermostat
Monitored burglar alarm system
Whole home control/automation system
Multiroom audio
Multi Zone controlled HVAC
46
Exhibit 37bElectronic Features Standard in UPSCALE HOME by 2015
52%
54%
62%
68%
70%
70%
74%
74%
0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 90%
Sensor-operated faucets
Window covering controls
Integrated HVAC andsecurity system
Remote control fireplaces
Communicating thermostat
Integrated security andlighting control system
Multiroom video access
Multiline phone system
47
Exhibit 38aTrends in AVERAGE HOMES Expected in the next 10 years
50%
56%
63%
68%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
You will see a trend awayfrom white to bolder colors
in the house
You will see a growing trendtowards universal
design/handicap access
You will see a definite trend towards recessed lighting
Toilet in the masterbedroom bath will have
separate enclosure
48
Exhibit 38bTrends in UPSCALE HOMES Expected in the next 10 years
63%
66%
76%
79%
84%
87%
88%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
You will see a growing trend towards universaldesign/handicap access
You will see a trend away from white to boldercolors in the house
You will see a definite trend towards recessedlighting
Most garage doors will increase from 7’x 9’ to8’x 10’
Two car garages will increase from 20’x20’ to24’x24’
The master bedroom bath will have multipleshower heads
Toilet in the master bedroom bath will haveseparate enclosure
49
Exhibit 39aTrends in Neighborhood/Communities Expected in the next 10 years
AVERAGE HOME
54%
63%
67%
67%
73%
78%
84%
91%
94%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Gated/distinctive communityentrance: Open
Greater access to commercialfacilities
Better access to publictransportation/alternative
transportation
In-fill development
More recreational opportunitiesintegrated into development
Walking/jogging trails, walkways, etc.in the new community
More mixed-use facilities withindevelopments
Higher-density development (smallerlots)
Dedicated open space/communalspace in the subdivision
50
Exhibit 39bTrends in Neighborhood/Communities Expected in the next 10 years
UPSCALE HOME
48%
49%
51%
51%
55%
57%
61%
66%
81%
85%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
More services integrated intodevelopment
Higher-density development (smallerlots)
In-fill development
More mixed-use facilities withindevelopments
Gated/distinctive communityentrance: Guard controlled
Gated/distinctive communityentrance: Electronic card
More cul-de-sacs than thru streets inthe new subdivision/ communities
Dedicated open space/communalspace in the subdivision
More recreational opportunitiesintegrated into development
Walking/jogging trails, walkways, etc.in the new community
51
Exhibit 40aGreen Building Trends Expected by 2015
AVERAGE HOME
66%
75%
89%
89%
98%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Builders will seek green certification forhis/her products
You will see greater desire forgreen/sustainable product offering
Energy performance will play a bigger role inwindow purchases
There will be a growing trend on water orenergy conservation devices
You will see an increased demand for energyefficiency appliances and mechanical
equipment
52
Exhibit 40bGreen Building Trends Expected by 2015
UPSCALE HOME
73%
76%
94%
97%
97%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Builders will seek green certification forhis/her products
You will see greater desire forgreen/sustainable product offering
There will be a growing trend on water orenergy conservation devices
Energy performance will play a bigger role inwindow purchases
You will see an increased demand for energyefficiency appliances and mechanical
equipment
53
TRENDS
54
Average Home Upscale Home
Average Size 2,330 sq. ft. >4,000 sq. ft.
Single vs. Two Stories Two-story Two-story
Entry Foyer One-story One-story
Family Room One-story Two-story/One-story
Living Room Will vanish or become parlor/retreat/library
Will stay as is or become parlor/retreat/library
Ceiling Height 1st floor: 9' 1st floor: 9'
2nd floor: 8'/9' 2nd floor: 9'/10'
Two Master Bedroom Suites x √
Outside Kitchen x Definitely yes
Exhibit 41
55
Average Home Upscale HomeOutside Kitchen Features x √
Grill x √
Sinks x √
Cooking Island x √
Refrigerators x √
Beer Dispensers x Maybe
Other Outdoor Room FeaturesDecking/Patio Covers x √
Outdoor Lighting x √Outdoor Audio/TV Equipment x √Outdoor Fireplace x √Pools/Spas x √Decorative Water Features x √Patio Heating x x
Exhibit 42
56
Average Home Upscale Home
Bathrooms Two full one half to Three full one half to Three full one half Four full one half
Exterior Wall Material Vinyl StoneFiber cement Brick
Brick StuccoFiber cement
Outside FeaturesFront Porch √ √Rear Porch x √Patio √ √Deck x √
Stairs In the foyerMore in the back or side of the
homeFront Doors Single door, 36" or 42" wide Single door 42" with side lights or
Double door with or without side lights
Fiber Optic Network √ √
Exhibit 43
57
Average Home Upscale HomeElectronic FeaturesProgrammable Thermostat √ √Structured Wiring System √ √Multiline Phone System √ √Multi Zone Controlled Hvac x √Remote Control Fireplaces x √Instant Hot Water in Bathrooms/Kitchens x √Monitored Burglar Alarm System x √Monitored Burglar/Fire/Toxic Gas Alarm System x √Lighting Control System x √Multiroom Audio x √Multiroom Video Access x √Whole Home Control/Automation System x √Integrated Security and Lighting Control System x √Integrated Hvac and Security System x √Communicating Thermostat x √
Exhibit 44
58
Average Home Upscale HomeTrends Expected in New Homes in the Next 10 Years
Toilet in the Master Bedroom Bath Will Have Separate Enclosure √ √
Definite Trend Towards Recessed Lighting √ √
Growing Trend Towards Universal Design/Handicap Access √ √
Trend Away From White To Bolder Colors In The House Divided opinion √
Two Car Garages Will Increase From 20’X20’ To 24’X24’ x √
Most Garage Doors Will Increase From 7’X 9’ To 8’X 10’ x √
The Master Bedroom Bath Will Have Multiple Shower Heads x √
Exhibit 45
59
Average Home Upscale HomeFeatures in New Neighborhood/Communities by 2015Dedicated Open Space/Communal Space in the Subdivision √ √
Higher-Density Development (Smaller Lots) √ x
More Mixed-Use Facilities within Developments √ x
Walking/Jogging Trails, Walkways, etc. in the New Community √ √
More Recreational Opportunities Integrated into Development √ √
More Services Integrated into Development √ x
Better Access to Public Transportation/Alternative Transportation √ x
Greater Access to Commercial Facilities √ x
Exhibit 46
60
Average Home Upscale Home
Inside of the Home 100% 78%
Outside of the Home 91% 85%
Yes 40%About the Same 41%
Average Home Family room area likely to increase
Living room most likely to decrease
Upscale Home
1. Homes by 2015 will generally look like the homes of today or would by very much different (Rated as "somewhat different" to "significantly different")
2. Changes to homes in the next decade be more significant/greater than the past 10 years
3. Areas of the home likely to increase, decrease, or stay the same
Family room and kitchen area likely to increase
Exhibit 47
61
4. Top 5 features rated critical to very critical
Average Home Family room, Low maintenance exteriors, Design, Location and Two-car garage
Upscale Home Design, Family room, Location, Home office, and Security
5. Top 5 most rated features in kitchen and bathrooms
Average Home Size, Double sink, Counter space, Cabinet space, and Table space for eating
Upscale Home Quality of appliances, Double sink, Walk-in pantry, Flooring, Size, Counter Space, and Cabinet Space
6. Increase in the number of features offered as standard
Average Home Yes
Upscale Home Yes
Exhibit 48
62
Average Home Upscale Home
Green Building Trends by 2015
Increased Demand for Energy Efficiency Appliances and Mechanical Equipment √ √
Growing Trend on Water or Energy Conservation Devices √ √
Energy Performance Will Play A Bigger Role in Window Purchases √ √
Greater Desire for Green/Sustainable Product Offering √ √
Builders Will Seek Green Certification for His/Her Products √ √
Source: Economics Group 2007 NAHB Study “Home of the Future”
Exhibit 49