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Are householders moving on or sprucing up? A look at the trends in planning activity for households across the country

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Britain’s Home Improvers ReportAPRIL 2019

Hinderton Point, Lloyd Drive, Cheshire Oaks, Cheshire, CH65 9HQT: 0151 353 3500E: [email protected]: www.barbour-abi.com

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Barbour ABI is an expert provider of construction project data and

market intelligence for the built environment, having a long history in

helping the community to grow its business.

We provide vital business support and insight for our clients

by continuously tracking and recording UK private and public

construction projects. Every planning application is recorded as well

as thousands of additional projects that do not go through the normal

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researching and tracking construction projects is second to none.

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What drives households to spend on home

improvement will vary over time, place to place,

household to household. Many factors will influence

decisions. But using data we can gain insight into the

likely factors that will prompt when, where and which

households are more likely to improve a home.

Below we have isolated various factors generally

regarded as most likely to influence a household

decision to spend on home improvement. Using the

most recent data we see how potent these appear

to be at present and how their potency might be

changing, where and among which households.

This provides us with evidence on why the market

for home improvement is changing and a means to

interpret impending changes.

Underpinning most of this analysis is the ratio of

home-improvement applications made to the

number of private homes in each local authority.

Naturally not all home improvements need planning

permission and legislation has reduced the need for

many would-be home improvers to seek planning

before embarking on their projects. But a substantial

number of the larger home-improvement projects will

require planning approval and Barbour ABI captures

data on all these applications across Britain.

Exploring these various factors reveals how the

pattern of which households are most likely to spend

on home improvement is in constant flux, with

change shaped by the sometimes complementary

and sometimes competing forces.

The economyFig 1.1 shows how interest in home improvement

moves closely with changing economic activity. The

number of home-improvement planning applications

varies across the year, but the heavier red line shows

the four-quarter average number of applications,

which, as we see, tracks closely with growth in the

economy. The correlation becomes even stronger

if we lag the home-improvement applications

six months behind GDP, suggesting – perhaps

unsurprisingly – that growth in the economy prompts

greater interest in home improvement.

Logically this relationship will not hold over the longer

term or we would end up with infinitely increasing

home-improvement applications. But in the medium

term when the economy is growing steadily it is a

reasonable indicator as we see from the chart.

Over the past two years we have seen the number

of applications begin to stagnate and then decline.

This doesn’t necessarily corelate to a decline in home

improvement. Not all work requires an application,

what does need permission changes over time.

Furthermore, there is a variety in the size of projects

that require planning approval. But the decline in

applications is a signifier of change.

While the state of the economy is not the only driver,

the evidence suggests that home improvement is

sensitive to economic activity. For instance, the

weakening economy in late 2011 and 2012 shows

up in reduced applications for home improvement

in 2012. But the impact of economic growth will not

be evenly distributed between households and can

alter the pattern of home improvement between

differing groups across the nation. In previous reports

it has been noted that economic downturns hit those

reliant on income in terms of spending on home

improvement more than those with wealth, while

economic upturns tend to support more growth in

home improvement spend among those reliant on

income rather than wealth. This was evident in the

South West during the recession a decade ago. As a

traditional retirement destination, the South West

home-improvers market was more sheltered from the

recession than many other parts of Britain.

A quick indicator of how the economy might influence

home-improvement projects can be seen in spending

on other big-ticket outlay for households, such as

cars. Fig 1.2 shows a strong relationship between

car sales and home improvement. Work on home

improvement tends to follow car sales by about

nine months, providing one potential early warning

indicator. As we see, UK car sales peaked in 2016 and

have fallen since.

This indicator once again does seem to be a reasonable

herald of shifts in the home-improvement market, if

only in terms of the level of planning applications.

OVERVIEW…

What drives home improvement

60

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Qua

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Dec10

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400

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Quarterly GDP (£bn) constant prices

Applications quarterly moving average

FIG 1.1

GDP and home improvement planning applicationsSource: Barbour ABI, ONS

The impact of economic growth will not be evenly distributed between

households

CONTINUED

Home improvement is strongly linked to

the economy. A drop in applications is to be

expected

CAN BE KEYEconomy

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There does appear, not surprisingly, to be a relationship

between consumer confidence and the change in

home-improvement applications. Fig 1.3 shows the

GfK consumer confidence index nine months earlier

and the annual difference in the four-quarter moving

total of home-improvement applications.

The phasing of consumer confidence and decisions to

apply for planning permission will vary place to place

and over time, so the lag between the two is likely to

vary. Applying a lag of nine months provided the best

fit and this matches the lag we see with car sales.

House prices and land valuesFig 1.4 shows the average number of home-

improvement applications for every 100 private

homes in each of Britain’s local authorities over three

years against the average house price. The correlation

is very apparent and if we think about it not surprising.

The value of a home is largely determined by the land

value. So, the value of an improvement to a home

where land values are higher is likely to be far greater

for a given level of money spent. Furthermore, if house

prices rise faster than the cost of improvement work,

the financial case for improvement is increased as

the increased value the improvement provides to the

house will tend to be magnified. Rising house prices

also provide more capital against which households

might borrow to undertake larger projects.

The key point, though, is that house prices in most

places have a significant bearing on how much larger-

scale home-improvement projects are undertaken. This

should not be too surprising as the higher price housing

areas tend to be home to the better paid and wealthier.

We can see this in a different way by looking at the

relationship between the number of new homes

started and the number of applications submitted

for home improvement. Fig 1.5 shows the number of

home-improvement planning applications for every

new home start in each of the regions of England.

Both housing starts and home improvements can be

regarded as an expression of demand in a region. The

chart leaves little doubt that when house prices (and

by association residential land prices) are higher the

balance tips very heavily towards home improvement.

It is, however, worth noting that both these

relationships weakened slightly between 2017 and

CONTINUED… What drives home improvement

0 1 2 3 4 5 60

200

400

600

800

1000

Aver

age

hous

e pr

ice

(£’0

00)

Home improvement applications per 100 private homes

R2 = 0.6935

FIG 1.4

Home improvements and house prices by local authoritySource: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, ONS

CONTINUED

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

24,000

Priv

ate

hous

ing

RMI (

£m)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 20180

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Thousands of new car registrations

FIG 1.2

Car sales and private housing repair, maintenance and improvementSource: ONS, SMMT

Work on home improvement tends to follow car sales by about nine months, providing one potential early warning indicator

An improvement to a home where land values are higher is likely to be far greater for a given level of money spent

GfK

cons

umer

conf

iden

ce in

dex

Dec2008

Dec2009

Dec2010

Dec2011

Dec2012

Dec2013

Dec2014

Dec2015

Dec2016

Dec2017

Dec2018

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Change in applications (%)

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

FIG 1.3

Consumer confidence and change in home improvement applicationsSource: Barbour ABI, GfK consumer confidence index

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2018. This again may reflect shifts in the market,

certainly away from the more affluent areas of Britain.

Rural or urban?Even accounting for the slowdown in activity in

London, it remains the most active region for home

improvement, but elsewhere does an urban or a rural

setting influence the likelihood of the owner submitting

a home-improvement planning application?

Looking at data within regions, there is a variety

of patterns that suggest a slight tendency towards

areas with higher rural populations having a higher

tendency to submit home-improvement planning

applications than the more urban areas. But the

balance seems to shift over time.

If we test local authorities across England based

on the rural classifications, as we see in Fig 1.6*,

there is a strong suggestion that towns and cities

within significant rural settings, such as Bath, Lewes

and Lancaster, come out top. Urban conurbations

come second.

However, if we exclude London (Fig 1.7*), it’s clear that

the remaining urban conurbations, located in the

West Midlands and North, score poorly.

But the patterns are complex and relate to multiple

factors. But if we narrow the applications to those to

increase a home’s floorspace and plot this against

house prices as in Fig 1.8, we see an interesting

pattern when comparing the more rural with the

more urban. In rural areas there is a strong correlation

between average house prices in the local authority

and the number of planning applications for lofts,

basements or extensions. In the case of urban areas

there appears to be a very poor relationship.

So, while the pattern in urban areas is much harder

to fathom and driven by more complex relationships,

we can be more confident that there is a strong link in

rural areas between house prices and the propensity

of owners to enlarge the space in their homes.

Home salesEconomists who track construction generally accept

that there is a link between the number of sales of

private homes and the money spent on repairing or

doing up homes. Certainly, this tended to hold true

with sellers occasionally investing to make their home

more attractive and buyers of existing homes doing

them up before moving in.

Finding solid data to back it up isn’t that easy.

But as Fig 1.9 shows there has been a reasonable

correlation between home sales and housing repair,

maintenance and improvement as measured within

the ONS construction output data. This doesn’t

prove a causal link, both are likely to be driven by

wider economic activity. And the relationship of late


Higher rural populations have a higher tendency to submit home

improvement planning applications than more urban areas

CONTINUED

FIG 1.6

Home improvements planning application per 100 private homes by ruralness*Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, ONS

*for notes on these box and whisker charts see page 31

FIG 1.7

Home improvements planning application per 100 private homes by ruralness (ex London)*Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, ONS

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Rural Urban in significant rural Urban with city and town Urban conurbation

x

x

x x

Appl

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per

100

priv

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hom

es

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Rural Urban in significant rural Urban with city and town Urban conurbation

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x

x

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Appl

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priv

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hom

es

0 1 2 3 4 5 60

100

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400

500

Aver

age

hous

e pr

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(£’0

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Ratio home improvement applications to private housing starts

Scotland

East MidlandsWestMidlands

London

North East

South West

Wales

East

North WestYorkshire & Humber

South East

R2 = 0.856

FIG 1.5

Home improvements to private housing completions ratio and house prices by English regionSource: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, ONS

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does suggest far more improving than moving than

in the past.

Fig 1.9 shows that over the last couple of years we

have seen a faster rise in housing repair, maintenance

and improvement activity than in residential

transactions. Interestingly, in previous years we

have found that in local authorities where a higher

proportion of the housing stock had been sold there

had been a higher proportion of home-improvement

applications. However, this relationship appears to be

shifting, particularly in the hotter markets and is very

apparent when we compare regional data.

In last year’s report we found that a closer look at

the data suggested falling sales in some of the hotter

housing districts, but in many cases rising home

improvement. While there are multiple factors at play

when we see rapid increases in house prices existing

homeowners, while better off in terms of wealth, find it

harder to trade up. But the cost of an improvement will

have risen roughly in line with their earnings and the

financial benefits of an improvement greatly increased

by rising house prices in the area. This would shift the

balance for householders towards improving rather

than moving and weaken the relationship in the

figures between moving and improving.

There are multiple factors, both broadly and locally at

play, but as our example of Cambridge showed (see

2017 and 2018 reports), a rapid – near 30% – leap in

house prices in a short space of time – between 2011

and 2014 – sparked a rapid rise in home-improvement

applications. While Cambridge remains very active

for home improvement, the market eased as house

prices topped out.

This suggests that there are both positive and

negative statistical relationships in play when

it comes to the connection between home

improvement and housing transactions. The data

seems to suggest a more positive link in the early

stages of recovery, when more housing transactions

are linked to higher levels of home improvement. But

as the housing market becomes overheated and the

option to improve rather than move becomes more

attractive, there is a growing negative link with lower

transactions becoming more strongly associated with

higher levels of home improvement.

Household incomeHome improvement tends to be expensive, so a

strong relationship between the average earnings in

an area and the level of home improvement seems

natural and is supported by the data.

The more disposable income households have,

the more this should support home-improvement

activity. So, rising real earnings, a reflection of

a growing economy, should lead to more home

improvement, all other things being equal.

But varying incomes between households and

between areas will also help to determine who is more

likely to engage in home improvement and where.

The Office for National Statistics family spending

survey shows that over the past five years the top 20%

of households on the income scale have spent about

13 times the amount on home improvements than

the bottom 20% (Fig 1.10).

Fig 1.11 plots the density of Barbour ABI home-

improvement applications for each local authority

against average income. It illustrates the strong

relationship. Because of their exceptional nature

Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster have

been omitted from the chart. The picture painted


The more disposable income households have, the more this should

support home improvement activity

CONTINUED

FIG 1.9

Home sales and private housing repair, maintenance and improvementSource: ONS, HMRC

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000Pr

ivat

e ho

usin

g RM

I (£’

000)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 20180

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

Thousands of transactions (England & Wales only)

FIG 1.8

Applications in England for extensions, loft works or basements per 100 sales versus house priceSource: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, ONS

Aver

age

hous

e pr

ice

(£’0

00)

Home extension, basement or lo� conversion per 100 home sales0 50 100 150

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200 Mainly ruralUrban with major conurbation

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is of a clear link between income and home-

improvement activity.

This is no surprise as income will tend to determine

average house prices, so we’d expect to see similar

patterns. Interestingly though, finer regional analysis

plotting within regional markets suggests a strong

link between income and home improvement

within the East of England, South East and in the

West Midlands, with a much weaker link currently in

London, Scotland and Wales.

The strength of the relationship, however, seems to

migrate over time. In 2015 similar plotting showed there

was a very much stronger link between income and

applications for home-improvement work in London. It

was second strongest outside the South East region.

In the South West there seems to be a relatively

weaker link between average income and home

improvement. This is likely to reflect the large amount

of wealth coming into the region with households

migrating from high house-price areas in London and

the wider south. Wales and Scotland also seem to

display a consistently weak link, which suggests that

ruralness may be a factor.

But it seems reasonable to expect changes in the

strength of the relationship. Considering the wave of

activity that spilled from central London, this would

easily explain the shift in the capital. And similar

patterns are likely to occur in other regions.

PlanningPrevious reports, using Barbour ABI planning data

to measure the proportion of applications rejected

or withdrawn, have shown a link between rigidity

in the planning process and higher levels of home

improvement, which might well be expected. Since

this research was originally conducted there has been

significant change in the planning process and the

mood is that while planning remains a bugbear for

house builders, a tight land supply is not as big an

issue as it was.

However, it remains very probably that a link still

exists, as it is likely that well-to-do people are both

more prone to improving their homes and more

averse to new homes being built near them.

The original research showed, however, that the

link varied across Britain, finding that in London,

Scotland and the South West the correlation

between planning rigidity and home-improvement

applications is negligible.

Age profileOne factor that might help tilt the more affluent and

idyllic rural areas towards more home improvement is

the shift of the equity-rich out of cities and into more

rural environments. The average age of the population

in rural areas is rising at a much faster rate than in

cities, partly because of this trend, but also because

younger people are increasingly moving to cities and

larger towns for education and employment.

What we can see from the Office for National Statistics

family spending figures is that the big spenders are

those between 50 and 64 – broadly speaking these

are mainly Baby Boomers, born between 1946 and

1964. But as Fig 1.12 shows ten years ago it was

homeowners aged between 30 and 50 that were the

bigger spenders, suggesting that as the boomers have

crossed age bands the balance has tipped. And a

similar trend is happening in the 65-to-74 age bracket

as increasing numbers of the Baby Boomers retire.

Broadly speaking this generation and either side of it

were those who gained most from rising house prices.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 715

25

35

45

55

65

75

Aver

age

inco

me

full-

time

empl

oyee

jobs

(£’0

00)

Home improvement applications per 100 private homes

R2 = 0.5051

FIG 1.11

Home improvements and average income in 2018 by local authoritySource: Barbour ABI, ONS, ASHE

50.7%

22.2%

14.1%

9%4%

FIG 1.10

Proportion spent 2015 to 2018 on home improvements by households, by incomeSource: ONS Family Spending

Highest 20%

Second 20%

Third 20%

Fourth 20%

Lowest 20%

Ten years ago it was homeowners aged between 30 and 50 that were the

bigger spenders

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This provided them with money to invest in improving

homes. And in some areas this cohort is an important

element of the home-improvers market.

Perhaps of some relief is that spending among the

30-to-49 cohort appears to be holding up. However,

when discounted for inflation there has been a fall in

real spending by this group.

But for today the big spenders are most likely to be

between their 50s and retirement.

Population growthOne factor that should also be considered in terms

of the home-improvement market is whether

population increase plays a part. It seems obvious

that it might and indeed when we test at a simple

level of the region, we see that there is a very strong

link between the amount of increase in population

over a period of ten years and the level of home-

improvement applications in that area.

The Scottish recognise the issue of low population

growth and it is apparent in Fig. 1.13 that there is a

solid correlation with home-improvement activity.

Household typeThe shape of household, or more likely the changing

shape of households will impact on the propensity

of families to invest in home improvement. It is

generally thought that kids can act as a prompt. But,

do they? A new child may well prompt a move or an

improvement, but a new phrase has entered the

family lexicon – the boomerang kid. That is a young

adult who, after having lived independently for a time,

returns to live in the parental home.

The data are quite clear on this. There was an increase

of 28% in the number of young adults aged between

20 and 34 living with their parents between 2007 and

2017. That’s an extra 750,000. And the share of young

adults these represent has risen from 22% to 26%.

Without very detailed surveying it is hard to assess the

impact. Does it encourage investment in improving the

family home or does it delay planned changes in the

minds of the parents who had envisaged themselves

as empty-nesters? There will be a mix of responses, but

the surge between 2007 and 2013, which accounts for

most of the rise may well have faded.

Whether this is a possible explanation for the rise over

the past decade in spending among families of three

or more adults without kids is hard to assess. But

currently that group appears to be the big spenders

according to the ONS Family Spending survey,

see Fig1.14.

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

75 or over

65 to 74

50 to 64

30 to 49

Under 30

Average annual spend (£)

2016 to 20172017 to 2018

2007 to 2008

Appl

icat

ions

per

100

priv

ate

hom

es 2

018

Population growth 2007 to 2017 (%)

Scotland

East MidlandsWest Midlands

London

North East

South West

Wales

East

North West

Yorkshire & Humber

South East

0 5 10 150.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

FIG 1.12

Changing pattern of spending on contracted-out home improvement work by ageSource: ONS Family Spending

FIG 1.13

Level of home improvement applications and population growthSource: Barbour ABI, ONS

0 500 1000 1500 2000

Retired one person

Retired two adults

One person (not retired)

One adult & children

Two adults & children

Three+ adults & children

Three+ adults no children

Two people (not retired)

Average annual spend (£)

2006 to 20082016 to 2018

FIG 1.14

Average annual spend (£) by household type over years 2016-2018 and 2006-2008Source: ONS Family Spending

INCREASES APPLICATIONSPopulation

There is a very strong link between the amount of increase in population over a period of ten years and the level of home

improvement applications in that area

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The claim to being home-improvement capital of

Great Britain has this year finally gone to a district

outside London. Sevenoaks tops the national table

despite seeing a slide in home-improvement planning

applications in the year.

Westminster, Uttlesford and South Bucks which

were above Sevenoaks a year ago saw bigger falls in

applications. Indeed, in the top 10 only Chichester

saw a rise in its ratio of home-improvement planning

applications to private housing stock. This pushed it

up from 24th to 4th in the table.

Sevenoaks in many ways fits the bill for being a top

district for home improvement. It is a well-established,

well-connected commuter town with plenty of mature

housing in a leafy part of west Kent. Average earnings

are well above the national figure. House prices are

high and grew in 2018. It may not lead the way on all

counts, but it has been a steady high-performer in the

home-improver league table over the years.

Just five of the top 25, including Chichester, saw rises.

Three of these, South Cambridgeshire, Epping Forest

and Cotswold, were outside the top 25 last year. The

fifth, Welwyn Hatfield, rose from 21st to 15th in the table.

Windsor & Maidenhead, despite seeing applications

dwindle, managed to regain a spot in the top 25,

thanks to others in the South East experiencing a

bigger slip in applications. With fortunes fading in

many of the leafy commuter districts in the South

East, Mole Valley, Tunbridge Wells and Hart districts

all dipped out of the top 25.

The general trend if we look wider than the headline

figures was that the higher performers of recent years

have been the more likely fallers. Statistically, 72% of the

districts in the upper half of the national table last year

saw declines compared with 54% in the bottom half.

And the general message seems to be pointing to a

broadening out of the home-improvement market to

areas where it had been less present and from areas

where it has been highly evident. It seems that at

present and for the near future it will rest rather less

on conspicuous affluence and more on genuine need

and where house-price rises support opportunities to

improve homes.

To some extent and for many businesses operating in

the sector this shift in the market is perhaps expected,

as it in part reflects the increasingly familiar pattern

of wave of economic and construction activity

emanating from London and spreading to the regions.

This can be seen starkly in Fig 2.1 which compares

home improvement activity in Kensington & Chelsea

in London with that in Corby in the East Midlands.

While it retains a spot in the top 25, among the

more spectacular declines was that of Kensington

& Chelsea, which over the past two years has

seen applications drop by about 30%. From head

and shoulders above other districts for planning

applications and an epitome of affluent spending on

home improvement, it has slipped to 10th in the table.

Meanwhile in Corby in the East Midlands there have

been plenty of signs of home-improvement activity

perking up. The district centred on Corby, designated

a new town in 1950, was hit hard when its British

Steel plant closed in 1980. Today average earnings

are almost 20% below the regional average. In terms

of home improvement, in 2015 it was at the foot of

the regional table. Ranking 282 in the national table,

about three quarters of the way down, it remains

an unlikely hotspot for home improvement. But in

2018 there were twice the applications for home

improvement than were seen in 2013 and the

numbers over the past two years suggest strong

growth in home-improvement activity.

DISTRICT OVERVIEW…

Which districts top the national table?

While it retains a spot in the top 25, among the more spectacular declines was that of Kensington & Chelsea, which over the past two years has seen applications

drop by about 30%

CONTINUED

Kens

ingt

on &

Che

lsea

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Corby

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

FIG 2.1

Home improvement applications per 100 private homes in Corby and Kensington & ChelseaSource: Barbour ABI, MHCLG

DECREASE

Previous upperdistricts

Statistically, 72% of the districts in the upper

half of the national table last year saw declines compared with 54% in

the bottom half

Just five of the top 25, including Chichester, saw rises

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CONTINUED… Which districts top the national table?

While London saw the most dramatic shift in fortunes

in 2018, its decline has been in train for some while

and it is not just Kensington & Chelsea in London

that has seen a collapse in applications for home

improvement. Hammersmith & Fulham felt a similar

near 30% fall in applications over the past two years.

Having been third in the table in 2014 and 15th

last time (2017), it now sits 33rd and has dropped

out of the top 25. Across London there was a fall

in applications in 29 out of the 32 boroughs. The

exceptions were Greenwich, which enjoyed very

positive growth along with Barking & Dagenham, and

Haringey which saw a more modest rise.

Looking outside of London it is not just the industrial

and former industrial regions that are seeing more

promise. Among the more intriguing big risers was

Babergh, sitting in South Suffolk between Ipswich

and Essex, which narrowly missed a national top 25

spot having risen from 51st to 26th. Its attractions are

clear. It’s a rural spot with pretty towns and access to

the coast. The data also suggests that mean average

earnings are rising fast and faster than median. This

hints at an influx of higher earners, which could be one

reason why house prices have risen 41% over the past

five years. That puts it in the upper quartile of local

authorities over that period for house-price inflation.

By way of contrast, the rising tide of home-

improvement activity outside of London in recent

years has lifted urban industrial and manufacturing

districts. In the North East the big riser has been

Gateshead. In 2015 it didn’t make the top 10 of 12

in the region. It now sits third in the regional table

behind Northumberland and Newcastle.

And of note in the West Midlands is the climb of Coventry

up the home-improvement charts, with applications up

by almost a third over the past two years.

In the North West, the district that perhaps catches

the eye this year is the borough of Manchester.

Although not in the region’s top 10, it has seen a 70%

rise in home-improvement applications over the

past two years. Admittedly this was from a low base,

but it hints at how fortunes can turn quite rapidly

in urban areas where regeneration and house price

inflation are strongly present. This seems to mark a

shift in the region’s home-improvement market, not

necessarily away from those in the rural idylls but

certainly towards the urbanites. The region overall

was buoyant in 2018 with more districts seeing home-

improvement applications rising than falling.

The rising tide of home improvement that has spread

out from London in recent years has not managed to

lift all districts.

The level of activity in Blackpool, which remains rooted

at the foot of the table, has seen little shift in the level of

home-improvement applications submitted. Stoke has

seen a tickle of an increase, but nothing that looks set

to shift it out of the bottom 25 districts.

Activity in Scotland remains stable at a low level, but

a recent dip in Glasgow sees it drop to the second

from bottom spot. Although Aberdeen proved to be

the biggest riser in the bottom 25 up 13 places.

Meanwhile, in Wales, the

fortunes of Blaenau Gwent

continue to wane with it

not just rooted to the

bottom of the Welsh

table but seeing ever

fewer applications for

home improvement.

Looking to the future

it is hard to gauge with

any certainty how much

further the wave might

spread, and which boats it

might float. Importantly too, while

we are seeing signs of slowing growth

and indeed recession in some of the

more prominent areas, the level of any

future decline is hard to predict.

But the risers and fallers in 2018

suggest that we might reasonably

expect to see continued

momentum carrying some of

the more modest performers

to new heights, some unexpected

hotter spots and some further

declines among those

which have ridden high for

many years.

CLICK TO VIEWTop & bottom 25 districts

TOP25

CONTINUED

The risers and fallers in 2018 suggest that we might reasonably expect to see

continued momentum

★

▼ RISES ABOVESevenoaks

Despite seeing a slide in home improvement

planning applications in the year Sevenoaks tops

the national table

The rising tide of home improvement activity outside of London in recent years has

lifted urban industrial and manufacturing districts

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Districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.

Districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.

Rank District Region 2016 2017 2018 Growth (%)*

25 Wolverhampton WM 0.8 0.9 0.9 5

24 Sunderland NE 0.8 0.9 0.8 -3

23 Tameside NW 0.8 0.8 0.8 1

22 Burnley NW 0.7 0.8 0.8 6

21 Aberdeen SC 0.8 0.7 0.8 4

20 Wigan NW 0.8 0.9 0.8 -5

19 Redditch WM 0.7 0.9 0.8 -4

18 Inverclyde SC 0.8 0.8 0.8 -3

17 Barrow in Furness NW 0.9 0.8 0.8 -8

16 Blaenau Gwent WA 1.0 0.9 0.8 -19

15 Gosport SE 0.9 0.9 0.8 -14

14 Knowsley NW 0.8 0.8 0.8 -4

13 Hyndburn NW 0.8 0.8 0.8 -9

12 Barnsley YH 0.7 0.8 0.7 -5

11 Kingston upon Hull YH 0.9 0.8 0.7 -10

10 North East Lincolnshire YH 0.8 0.8 0.7 -10

9 North Ayrshire SC 0.7 0.7 0.7 2

8 Falkirk SC 0.7 0.8 0.7 -9

7 Dundee SC 0.7 0.6 0.7 3

6 Renfrewshire SC 0.6 0.6 0.6 7

5 West Dunbartonshire SC 0.7 0.8 0.6 -16

4 Stoke on Trent WM 0.6 0.6 0.6 3

3 North Lanarkshire SC 0.6 0.6 0.6 -7

2 Glasgow SC 0.6 0.6 0.5 -14

★ Blackpool NW 0.4 0.4 0.4 4

*2018 compared with average of 2016 and 2017 Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, StatsWales, Scottish Government

Rank District Region 2016 2017 2018 Growth (%)*

★ Sevenoaks SE 5.4 5.7 5.5 -1

2 Westminster LN 6.5 6.2 5.5 -14

3 South Bucks SE 6.1 5.8 5.3 -10

4 Chichester SE 4.7 4.3 5.3 17

5 Uttlesford EE 5.6 6.1 5.3 -11

6 Cambridge EE 6.5 5.4 5.0 -16

7 South Northamptonshire EM 5.5 5.0 4.9 -6

8 Elmbridge SE 5.4 5.4 4.8 -11

9 St Albans EE 5.6 5.3 4.8 -12

10 Kensington and Chelsea LN 6.8 5.6 4.7 -25

11 Guildford SE 5.1 4.8 4.6 -7

12 Harrow LN 4.7 4.9 4.6 -4

13 Hertsmere EE 4.9 4.6 4.6 -3

14 Barnet LN 4.9 4.9 4.5 -7

15 Welwyn Hatfield EE 4.5 4.5 4.5 0

16 Three Rivers EE 5.0 5.2 4.5 -11

17 Richmond upon Thames LN 5.5 4.8 4.4 -15

18 Brentwood EE 4.4 4.5 4.3 -2

19 South Cambridgeshire EE 3.5 3.9 4.3 15

20 Epping Forest EE 4.2 4.1 4.2 1

21 Cotswold SW 4.5 4.1 4.2 -3

22 Redbridge LN 4.7 4.6 4.1 -12

23 Hounslow LN 4.5 4.6 4.1 -10

24 Windsor and Maidenhead SE 4.5 4.1 4.0 -7

25 Chiltern SE 4.7 4.5 4.0 -12


BOTTOM

25TOP25

*The home improvement ratio is to one decimal place which may disguise the change that underpins the growth rate.

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Last year we reported a further rise in home-

improvement planning applications but suggested

a slowdown evident in London was likely to herald a

wider decline across Britain. And, so it has proved.

There was continued growth in the Midlands, North

West and Wales, but all other English regions and

Scotland saw a fall in the number of applications

made for home improvement. London’s decline

accelerated. Across Great Britain there were 2.8%

fewer applications in 2018 than in 2017, see Fig 3.1.

Planning applications in London hit a peak in

years 2015 and 2016, with one application for

home improvement made in each year for every 26

private homes in the capital. Although the home-

improvement frenzy in hot boroughs like Kensington

& Chelsea was already in full flow. In 2014 there was

one home-improvement application made for every

13 private homes.

That bubble has burst and the decline in home

improvement in London has spread. Over the past

two years the number of applications has dropped by

almost 10%.

The decline in home improvement in London is

also picked up by the ONS Family Spending survey,

see Fig 3.2. These figures are indicative rather than

accurate estimates of spending by region, as they can

be quite erratic year to year. There is also a significant

lag between spending registering in the figures and

changes in the market. They tend to be more useful

in assessing the level of spend rather than change.

But they will pick up significant rises and falls in

the medium term. And, as we see, in London there

was a fall in average household spending on home

improvement over the past two years compared with

the previous two years.

Not particularly well picked up in the spending survey

as yet, but encouraging, is the strong growth in planning

applications in the North West, Midlands and Wales

over the past three years which continued in 2018.

The North West was highlighted last year as an area

of growth and has been the standout region over the

past three years. While the large metropolitan areas

centred on Manchester and Liverpool have seen solid

growth, there are individual boroughs where the

increase in applications for home improvement has

been very marked. The local authority of Manchester,

for example, has seen a near doubling of applications

being submitted over the past three years, albeit

from a low base.

The rise in home-improvement applications in the

North West fits with the vibrancy of the housing

market and rising prices. It is mirrored in the data

on home-improvement spending. The ONS data

show that over the past three years households in

the region have raised spend on alterations and

improvement in the region.

The growth in home improvement in the North

West appears to be part of the familiar pattern

late in the cycle of activity spreading out from

London and the greater south east while the

activity in the capital begins to wane.

REGION OVERVIEW…

How do the regions and countries of Britain compare?

CONTINUED

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Mon

thly

hom

e-im

prov

er a

pplic

atio

ns

Dec10

Dec11

Dec12

Dec13

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Applications 12 month moving average

FIG 3.1

Monthly home-improver planning applications and 12 month moving averageSource: Barbour ABI, MHCLG

STARTING TO FALL

Applications

Across Great Britain there were 2.8% fewer

applications in 2018 than in 2017

The decline in home improvement in London has spread. Over the past

two years the number of applications has dropped by almost 10%

5%

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CONTINUED… How do the regions and countries of Britain compare?

Putting to one side the lower base from which they

are growing, the relative strength of the Midlands,

the northern regions and indeed Wales is clearly

illustrated in Fig 3.3. The improved buoyancy of home

improvement in the north of England over the past

couple of years, however, did not stretch across the

border to Scotland, which continues to lag the rest of

Britain in terms of the number of planning applications.

Despite its low level of activity, the numbers remain

stubbornly flat. However, given difference in planning

law making direct comparisons could be misleading.

One, at least partial, explanation for the sluggishness

of home improvement in Scotland is its slow

population growth. If we look back at Fig 1.13, it

suggests quite a strong relationship between how

fast the population has grown and the level of home-

improvement activity.

Meanwhile, Fig 3.4 underlines how increases in home-

improvement activity corelate with rising house prices.

We noted last year that much of the wave of growth in

home improvement outward from London can be seen

in terms of both house prices and house price rises. A

higher house price strengthens the economic case for

home improvement, while also improving the financial

wherewithal of the household and the ability to carry

out the work.

The economic rebalancing caused by faster growth

outside London and the South East has not, however,

CONTINUED

East

North West

Yorks & Humber

East Midlands

South West

London

South East

West Midlands

Scotland

North East

Wales

England

Great Britain

Growth (%)

One year growthThree year growth

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

East

North West

Yorks & Humber

East Midlands

South West

London

South East

West Midlands

Scotland

North East

Wales

Average household annual spend (£)

2015 to 20162017 to 2018

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

FIG 3.3

Regional growth in home improvement applications over one and three yearsSource:Barbour ABI, MHCLG

FIG 3.2

Household annual spend on home improvements by regionSource: ONS Family Spending survey

One, at least partial, explanation for the sluggishness of home improvement in Scotland is its slow population growth

SLOW FOR SCOTLAND

ARE STILL KEYHouse prices

Population growth

A higher house price strengthens the economic case for home improvement

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Incr

ease

in a

pplic

atio

ns 2

016-

1018

(%)

House average price rise 2016 to 2018 (%)

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Scotland

East Midlands

West Midlands

London

North East

South West

Wales

East

North West

Yorkshire & Humber

South East

done that much to close the chasm between the north and

south when it comes to the likelihood of a private home

being improved. In London there were 3.4 applications made

for every 100 private homes in 2018 compared with 1.4 in

the North West. In terms of how many private homes will be

the subject of a planning application in a year, the likelihood

in London is two and a half times that in the North West,

down from three times in 2015 and 2016 when the home-

improvement market in the capital was extremely hot.

London, the East of England and the South East still account

for 52% of all home-improvement applications, down from

54% in 2015 and 2016. Though we might reasonably expect

this share to drop further.

The general picture we see in the changing regional

pattern of home-improvement planning applications is a

continuation of the wave of house price rises that has crept

out from London and the South East in recent years. This has

pushed up activity in once weaker areas. But what we see in

this year’s figures is that the rises in these once weaker areas

are not enough to check an overall decline across Britain.

With London now seeing quite marked house price falls,

the question is one of how strong this effect will be over the

next year or two in dragging down activity in London and

undermining activity elsewhere.

Added to this concern, is the obvious impact of Brexit. The

uncertainty it has caused and will continue to cause as the

effects of any settlement begin to emerge will likely inhibit

households’ confidence. Some may choose to improve rather

than move, but much of the more discretionary improvements

are likely to be put on hold until the dust settles.

CONTINUED… How do the regions and countries of Britain compare?

Rank Region/Country 2016 2017 2018 Growth (%)*

★ London 3.8 3.7 3.4 -10.5

2 South East 2.8 2.9 2.7 -4.1

3 East of England 2.7 2.7 2.6 -2.5

4 South West 2.1 2.1 2.1 -2.1

5 East Midlands 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5

6 Yorkshire & Humber 1.5 1.6 1.5 0.1

7 West Midlands 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.8

8 North West 1.3 1.4 1.4 5.0

9 Wales 1.3 1.3 1.4 3.1

10 North East 1.1 1.2 1.2 -1.1

11 Scotland 1.1 1.1 1.1 -2.2

England 2.2 2.2 2.1 -3.2

Great Britain 2.1 2.1 2.0 -2.9


Home improvement across Britain’s regions and countriesNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.

MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN IMPROVEMENTS

Brexit

The uncertainty it has caused and will continue to cause as the effects of any settlement begin to emerge will likely

inhibit households’ confidence

DOMINATION STILL BYthe big three

London, the East of England and the South East still

account for 52% of all home improvement applications


FIG 3.4

Home sales and private housing repair, maintenance and improvementSource: ONS, HMRC

In London there were 3.4 applications made for

every 100 private homes in 2017 compared with 1.4 in the North West

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PROJECT TYPE OVERVIEW…

What types of improvements are households doing?

CONTINUED

While there was a dip in applications for home

improvement across all categories, the number of

applications to expand the size of homes appears to

have held up.

Roughly half of the applications made for home

improvement include either loft conversions,

extensions or basements, or a combination of them.

Home-improver planning applications cover a wide

variety of changes that require permission. It can be

hard to work out simply from planning applications

what this means for types of work being done. The

mix of applications is eclectic, ranging from lighting,

boundary works and flagpoles that require little

construction work to loft conversions, extensions,

basements and outbuildings that generally involve a lot.

The task of linking activity to the applications is

difficult because what needs a permission or what

doesn’t will vary from place to place – most notably

different rules apply in places such as national parks,

areas of outstanding natural beauty or conservation

areas. Also, rules change over time with regular tweaks

to the General Development Planning Orders (GDPOs)

which set out the permitted development rights.

Comparing like-for-like by local authority, region or

over time is, therefore, troublesome and so the figures

should be treated as indicative rather than precise.

Despite this awkwardness, we can glean reasonable

guides to trends by looking closer at the detail of

applications and what is becoming more popular and

what’s not and where. This we do below.

Though when assessing the data we need to take

account of possible changes in legislation that might

have a significant impact on the numbers, such

as the liberalising in England in 2013 of the rules

regarding single-storey rear extensions, allowing

larger extensions to be built without permission

between 30 May 2013 and 30 May 2019 if they satisfied

the requirements of a “light touch” neighbourhood

consultation scheme.

The impact of this change is hard to judge for many

reasons. It depends on how long it takes for people

to adjust to having the relaxation and on whether

they decide to put in an application anyway for fear

of wasting time going through the neighbourhood

consultation to end up needing to put in for full

planning anyway. Also, rule changes often throw up

unexpected consequences.

As we see in Fig 4.1, the data shows a continuation of

a strong upward trend in 2014, despite the relaxation,

although they suggest a slight dip in the data for rear

single-storey extensions over 2016 and 2017. Overall

the trend is upward, so it is unclear how the rule

change may have influenced activity. The main point

is that this form of home improvement remained in

fine fettle in 2018 as is extension work more widely.

The data suggests an increase of almost 11% in

applications for extensions in 2018. This however was

topped by the increase in applications for loft works, up

almost 13% on the year. Applications for basements,

not surprisingly, fell down a shade more than 15%.

The number of applications that included one of any

combination of loft work, basement or extensions

also rose in the year, up by just over 10%, with

applications for multiple types up more than 20%

suggesting a rise in more ambitious projects.

The data continues to show declining planning

applications for conservatories – down 9% in

2018 and down more than 40% if you compare

201420132012 201720162015 2018

Rear single-storey extension Other extension Lo�Basement

Num

ber o

f app

licat

ions

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Application with any or some

FIG 4.2

Number of planning applications submitted for types of home improvementsSource: Barbour ABI

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

10,0000

12,0000

14,0000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Lo� Rear single-storey extension Other extension

FIG 4.1

Number of planning applications submitted for types of home improvementsSource: Barbour ABI

Note: A planning application may include more than one type of home improvement Note: A planning application may include more than one type of home improvement

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CONTINUED… What types of improvements are households doing?

CONTINUED

applications over 2012 and 2013 with those of 2017

and 2018. We might put this down to more relaxed

permitted development and some of the drop may

well be. But the downward trend predates the rule

change. And, as we noted last year there has been

an increase in applications specifying living rooms,

which suggest a shift from conservatories to living

rooms. The rise in living rooms more than makes

up for the fall in conservatories. The data available

does not tell us how much of this may be down to a

descriptive change, with living room being used in

place of conservatory, which is one possible factor in

the shift apparent in the numbers.

About half of home-improvement planning

applications seek permissions to expand the usable

floorspace, extensions, loft works or basements. They

are represented by the dotted black line in Fig 4.2.

Some applications will be for just one type, others will

include two or all three.

Basements clearly are the least common and as the

figures show represent significantly less than one in

a hundred applications outside London as we see

in Fig 4.3. Extensions of one type or another are the

most common, with more than 60% being for rear

single-storey extensions. Lofts feature in about 10% of

applications. These proportions have been relatively

consistent back to 2010.

ExtensionsSouth Bucks tops the table for extensions on our

measure of applications per 1,000 private homes

averaged over the past two years, see Fig 4.5. And

looking down the list of top locations for extensions

they are all in reasonably easy reach of London,

although not in inner London.

And, as we see from Fig 4.4, in East of England,

London and the South East more than one private

home in a hundred has been the subject of a planning

application for an extension. In the south of England,

the chance of an extension is four to five more than in

Scotland, three time more than Wales and about two

times more than elsewhere in England.

The average likelihood across Britain of an

application for an extension being submitted on a

Region/Country 2015 2016 2017 2018

East of England 12.15 11.52 11.59 12.36

East Midlands 6.96 6.89 7.11 7.77

London 18.24 13.81 13.63 16.26

North East 5.24 5.15 5.31 5.27

North West 6.49 6.23 6.42 7.23

Scotland 2.64 2.55 2.67 2.64

South East 13.71 12.35 12.27 12.92

South West 7.72 7.31 7.58 7.99

Wales 4.22 4.07 4.10 4.62

West Midlands 7.33 6.94 7.16 7.79

Yorkshire & Humber 6.90 6.63 6.90 7.57

Great Britain 9.21 8.30 8.40 9.20

Region/Country Lofts (%) Extensions (%) Basement (%) One or more (%)

East of England 9.7 44.8 0.15 50.5

East Midlands 5.3 45.4 0.08 48.1

London 15.6 42.5 1.19 54.5

North East 5.6 44.6 0.06 47.8

North West 6.8 48.6 0.15 52.1

Scotland 6.3 24.3 0.06 28.9

South East 10.7 45.3 0.16 51.7

South West 7.4 37.0 0.11 42.0

Wales 6.0 32.2 0.05 35.8

West Midlands 5.6 50.9 0.09 53.7


Great Britain 9.7 43.1 0.34 49.4

FIG 4.4

Number of applications for extensions for each 1,000 private homes by region Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, StatsWales, Scottish Government

FIG 4.3

Proportions of home improvement planning applications over the past two years stating each type of work Source: Barbour ABI

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CONTINUED

private home in 2018 was about one in 110. Not all will

be built, but the figures suggest that there is roughly

one extension for every new home built.

Apart from a desire for more space and the wherewithal

to afford the cost, two big factors come into play that

will influence the likelihood of an application being

submitted for an extension. The available land to

extend into and the value of the house.

The first factor probably explains why it is only the

more suburban areas of London that appear in the

top 10 boroughs for extensions. The second explains

why it is well-to-do boroughs that populate the top

of the table.

About half of Britain’s housing stock falls within

boroughs with an average house price in 2018 of

£215,000. But these boroughs accounted for about

70% of all applications for extensions in the year.

LoftsIn contrast to a rather weaker showing for extensions,

London comes out very strongly when it comes to loft

conversions, with five districts featuring in the top 10,

see Figs, 4.6 & 4.7.

The reason for this difference in showing is obvious.

Loft conversions don’t take extra land, which is in

short supply in most parts of London. But to make

them worthwhile financially it helps if the house

prices in the area are high.

London dominates this market, accounting for a third

of applications across Britain for loft works in 2018. A

householder in London was more than three times as

likely to put in an application that involved loft work

than the GB average and, by way of contrast, almost

ten times as a householder in the North East.

About half of Britain’s housing stock falls within

boroughs with an average house price in 2018 of

£215,000. But these boroughs accounted for almost

80% of all applications for loft works in the year.

BasementsJust by looking at the top 10 districts in Great

Britain for planning applications over the past two

years it’s clear that basements make more financial

Rank District Region Applications

★ South Bucks SE 29.4

2 St Albans EE 28.7

3 Harrow LN 28.1

4 Chiltern SE 27.4

5 Redbridge LN 25.7

6 Brentwood EE 25.2

7 Three Rivers EE 24.8

8 Elmbridge SE 24.2

9 Hertsmere EE 23.1

10 Welwyn Hatfield EE 22.2

Applications represents the annual average number of extensions per 1,000 private homes over the past two years

FIG 4.5

Top 10 districts for extensions Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, StatsWales, Scottish Government

Region/Country 2015 2016 2017 2018

East of England 2.39 2.31 2.44 2.75

East Midlands 0.74 0.69 0.79 0.93

London 6.25 5.25 5.29 5.70

North East 0.66 0.61 0.66 0.68

North West 0.81 0.79 0.90 1.02

Scotland 0.75 0.64 0.65 0.72

South East 3.12 2.82 2.83 3.14

South West 1.40 1.35 1.48 1.65

Wales 0.70 0.70 0.76 0.86

West Midlands 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.90


Great Britain 1.99 1.80 1.86 2.08

FIG 4.6

Number of applications for loft works for each 1,000 private homes by region Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, StatsWales, Scottish Government

London comes out very strongly when it comes to loft conversions, with five districts

featuring in the top 10

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sense in London than anywhere else in Britain, see

Figs 4.8 & 4.9.

Despite a rapid decline in the number of applications

being made each year in London, the capital still

accounts for more than 70% of all applications, down

from 80% five years ago. And three boroughs in the

capital, Kensington & Chelsea, Hammersmith & Fulham

and Westminster, account for more than a quarter of

applications, although in 2013, as the basement boom

was gathering pace, they accounted for about half.

Less than 15% of applications for basements were

made outside of London, the East of England and

the South East. And 92% of basement applications

were made in boroughs where the average house

prices were above £215,000 in 2018, which account

for half the British housing stock. Almost 90% of all

applications fall within boroughs where the average

house price in 2018 was above £250,000.

Fig 4.9 illustrates the basement boom driven as it

was from central London boroughs and peaking five

years ago. There appears to be a continued interest in

basement work in London outside the three hottest

boroughs, and activity overall appears to be well

above the pre-boom level.


★ Kensington & Chelsea LN 3.5

2 Hammersmith & Fulham LN 1.8

3 Westminster LN 1.2

4 Wandsworth LN 1.0

5 Hackney LN 0.9

6 Camden LN 0.8

7 Richmond upon Thames LN 0.7

8 Islington LN 0.6

9 Lambeth LN 0.5

10 Hounslow LN 0.5

Applications represents the annual average number of basements per 1,000 private homes over the past two years

FIG 4.8

Top 10 districts for basements Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, StatsWales, Scottish Government

201420132012 201720162015 2018Rest of London Outside LondonK&C, Westminster, Hammersmith & Fulham

Num

ber o

f app

licat

ions

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

FIG 4.9

The basement boom Source: Barbour ABI


★ Richmond upon Thames LN 10.4

2 Elmbridge SE 10.3

3 St Albans EE 10.1

4 Redbridge LN 10.0

5 Barnet LN 9.9

6 Brent LN 9.7

7 Kingston upon Thames LN 9.2

8 Three Rivers EE 9.0

9 South Bucks SE 8.4

10 Brentwood EE 8.3

Applications represents the annual average number of lofts per 1,000 private homes over the past two years

FIG 4.7

Top 10 districts for lofts Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG, StatsWales, Scottish Government

Almost 90% of all applications fall within boroughs where the average house price in 2018 was above £250,000

BASEMENT APPLICATIONS ABUNDANT IN HOUSES WORTH

STILL DOMINATES BASEMENTSLondon

over £250,000

Despite a rapid decline in the number of applications being made each year in London, the capital still accounts for

more than 70% of all applications

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Despite a significant fall in the number of home-improver

applications in 2018, Uttlesford retains its crown as the hot

spot for home improvement in the East of England, having

briefly relinquished it to Cambridge in 2017. That the north

Essex local authority, which takes in Saffron Walden and

Stansted, consistently rides high in the home-improver charts

should be of little surprise. Large pockets of affluent residents

and a mature housing stock make it attractive to aspirational

home owners. It consistently ranks high in the national

table, last year second to Westminster. This year, nationally it

ranked fifth with home-improvement applications dipping to

5.3 for every 100 private homes – the lowest since 2012.

But caution should be taken when comparing with the past,

particularly in an area like Uttlesford where there are plenty

of large gardens. Permitted development rules have relaxed,

certainly making it easier to put up a garden building

without planning permission. Cambridge, which saw surging

house prices from 2012 comes one spot behind Uttlesford

both at a regional and national level with 5.0 applications for

every 100 private homes. Again, the level of applications fell.

The big riser in the region was Babergh, in South Suffolk,

which came in at 10 in the regional table and narrowly

missed a national top 25 spot.

Home-improvement applications in the region dipped in

2018 by 2.1% compared with 2017 to roughly the same level

as in 2016. This was slightly less than the national 3.1% drop

and significantly less than the fall in London and the South

East. East of England local authorities accounted for nine

out of the top 25 spots in the national table, with South

Cambridgeshire and Epping Forest joining the list.

For all that the East is doing relatively better than London

and the South East, the signs evident last year that the surge

of 2016 and 2017 in applications was likely to fade have been

reinforced. There were falls in home-improvement rates

across 27 of the 47 local authorities compared with 18 last

year and six in 2016. Overall there were more than 59,900

applications made in the region in 2018, which comes in

at slightly above 2.6 for every 100 privately-owned homes,

ranking the region third after London and the South East

and well above the British average of 2.0.

There appears to be a higher propensity for households

in the region to improve rather than move homes. In the

East of England for every 100 home moves there were 32

applications that included an extension, basement or loft

conversion submitted in 2018, which is ahead of the national

average of 25. St Albans leads the region with 90.

The Office for National Statistics Family Spending survey

suggests that households in the East of England on average

spent across 2017 and 2018 a shade above £1,200 a year

altering and improving their homes. That totals to about

£3.1 billion spent in the region.

Great Yarmouth, not uncommonly for a coastal town,

continues to sit at the bottom of the regional table, with

applications for home improvement showing a hint of a rise

over the past two years. Ipswich, Harlow, Peterborough and

Norwich took the four other places in the bottom five.

FOCUS ON…

East of England

East of England districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.

Rank District Change 2016 2017 2018 Growth (%)*

★ Uttlesford 5.6 6.1 5.3 -11

2 Cambridge 6.5 5.4 5 -16

3 St Albans 5.6 5.3 4.8 -12

4 Hertsmere 1 4.9 4.6 4.6 -3

5 Welwyn Hatfield 2 4.5 4.5 4.5 0

6 Three Rivers 2 5 5.2 4.5 -11

7 Brentwood 1 4.4 4.5 4.3 -2

8 South Cambridgeshire 1 3.5 3.9 4.3 15

9 Epping Forest 1 4.2 4.1 4.2 1

10 Babergh NEW 2.5 3.6 4 32

3 East of England 2.7 2.7 2.6 -2.5

*2018 compared with average of 2016 and 2017 Source: Barbour ABI, MHCLG

made in the region for home improvement

APPLICATIONS

STAYS ON TOP

59,900

Uttlesford

of the regional table, but drops to fifth from second

nationally in 2018

TOP10

Households in the region on average spent across 2017 and 2018 a shade above £1,200 a year altering and improving their homes


32%

Babergh

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East of England


South Northamptonshire held its top spot in the East

Midlands home-improvement league, despite a second

successive fall in the annual number of planning

applications in the borough.

After three years of seeing more than five home-

improvement applications submitted in the borough

for every 100 private homes, the number dropped to 4.9

in 2018, well above the nearest challenger in the region,

Derbyshire Dales.

South Northamptonshire, centred on Towcester, has a

healthy stock of wealthy executive types and flourishing

families who continue to enjoy strong earnings growth

which will drive home-improvement activity. Again, this year

it is the only East Midlands region to feature in the national

top 25 listing.

Rutland, second in the regional pecking order last year, saw

some of the fastest declines in home improvement and

dropped below Derbyshire Dales and Harborough, which

both saw slight increases in home-improvement applications.

Across the region applications rose slightly to 28,800 in 2018,

up 2.7% on 2017 and up by 29% over five years.

There were more local authorities in the region that saw a

rise in numbers than a fall in planning applications for home

improvement. Despite this the East Midlands, averaging a

shade above 1.7 applications made for every 100 private

homes, ranks below the average of 2.1 across Britain.

When it comes to types of home improvement, the East

Midlands tends to score relatively lowly for applications that

would expand available space, relative both to stock and to

home moves. Although there has been a rise in applications

for extensions, basements and loft conversions relative to

sales over the past three years.

The region scores particularly low on loft conversions

compared with other house extensions. Regionally there

were 8.4 times as many applications for extensions than for

loft conversions. This is the highest ratio regionally apart

from that of its neighbouring West Midlands. And compares

with a ratio of 4.4:1 across Britain.

Mansfield lifted itself off the bottom and above Chesterfield

in the regional table, but both saw less than one home-

improver planning application for every 100 private homes.

The pattern appears to be that the more rural boroughs in

the region tending towards the top of the pile and the older

urban and industrial towns and cities nearer the bottom.

There are, however, hints that the steam is coming out

of the more rural areas, compensated to some extent by

more promising signs within the urban centres, with rising

numbers of applications in Nottingham, Derby and Leicester.

Looking at how much homeowners in the region spend

on home improvement, the Office for National Statistics

Family Spending survey suggests an annual average of

about £2.8 billion over 2017 and 2018. This averages out

at almost £1,400 a year per household on altering and

improving their homes.

FOCUS ON…

East Midlands


★ South Northamptonshire 5.5 5 4.9 -6

2 Derbyshire Dales 1 3.5 3.7 3.7 2

3 Harborough 2 3 3 3.1 3

4 Rutland 2 4 3.7 3 -21

5 Rushcliffe 1 2.9 3 2.9 -1

6 East Northamptonshire 2.4 2.5 2.4 -4

7 Daventry 2.2 2.4 2.2 -3

8 Melton 1.8 2.1 2.2 13

9 South Kesteven 1 1.9 1.9 2.1 11

10 North East Derbyshire 1 1.8 2 2 5

5 East Midlands 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5


East Midlands districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.

TOP10

Rural areas tend to be stronger for home improvement applications, but the growth was more from the larger

urban areas in the region

GROWTH IN

RISE IN 20182%

urban areas

In 2018 applications rose 2% to 28,600. They are up by

28% over five years

Households in the region on average spent across 2017 and 2018 almost £1,400 a year

altering and improving their homes


13%

Melton

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The turning tide for London’s home-improvement market

observed last year has ebbed faster in 2018. Applications for

home improvements were down almost 10% in 2018 from

the peak year of 2016.

There was a fall in the number of planning applications

made for home improvement in 29 of London’s 32 boroughs.

The most notable declines are in Kensington & Chelsea and

Hammersmith & Fulham, which over the past two years

have seen applications drop by about 30%. Westminster,

which tops the regional table, also saw significantly fewer

applications in the year.

If there is a hot spot in London currently it is Greenwich,

which has seen applications surge, but from a low base. This

has pushed it up the table and it narrowly missed a place in

the top 10.

The decline in home improvement in the capital was

first evident with a fall in the super-affluent boroughs of

Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster in 2015. But the

pace of decline has accelerated, and the effect has widened

to most boroughs.

For the first time in the survey we see the national table

topped by a district not in London, Sevenoaks. And the

spate of extravagant basement building that led to the

notion of the “Iceberg House” has well and truly passed.

Last year we noted that the inner London boroughs that

saw growth were towards the east, with Greenwich, where

house prices are relatively low by London standards, seeing

the strongest growth in the capital. This growth continued.

But the wave of activity in the outer boroughs seems to have

passed, except for Barking & Dagenham which saw solid

growth in 2018.

Overall the number of applications for home improvement

dropped by 7.7% in 2018 to 91,500, having peaked above

100,000 two years earlier. But applications are still well

above the levels seen before 2014 and still represents

about one fifth of all applications in Britain. And with 3.4

applications for each private home, London still by far

provides the richest vein for home-improvement work.

For all its decline, London remains highly active, especially

for those who convert lofts. The chances of an application

for a loft conversion to a private home is still about three

time that elsewhere. With the current hotspot being

Richmond upon Thames. And about three quarters of

basement applications are in London.


reinforces the fact that Londoner’s remain big home-

improvement spenders. London is a huge market. It suggests

the total spend by London households annually on home

improvements averaged £6.7 billion over 2017 and 2018, based

on an average yearly spend of almost £2,100 per household.

FOCUS ON…

London


★ Westminster 6.5 6.2 5.5 -14

2 Kensington and Chelsea 6.8 5.6 4.7 -25

3 Harrow 4.7 4.9 4.6 -4

4 Barnet 4.9 4.9 4.5 -7

5 Richmond upon Thames 5.5 4.8 4.4 -15

6 Redbridge 1 4.7 4.6 4.1 -12

7 Hounslow 1 4.5 4.6 4.1 -10

8 Hackney NEW 3.7 3.9 3.8 0

9 Hammersmith and Fulham 3 5.3 4.7 3.7 -25

10 Brent 1 4.1 4.2 3.7 -11

★ London 3.8 3.7 3.4 -10.5


London districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.

TOP10

submitted to London planning authorities last year for home improvements, about one in five across Great Britain

MORE THAN

APPLICATIONS91,000

SAW A DECLINE

29 London boroughs

in home improvement planning applications in

2018, meaning only 3 saw an increase

Households in London on average across 2017 and 2018 spent almost £2,100 a year altering and improving their homes, amounting to a £6.7 billion annual spend across the region


0%

Hackney

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London


Despite seeing no growth in applications in 2018, the district

of Northumberland continued to hold its place atop the list

of boroughs in the home-improvement league for the North

East. Its lead widened as a surge in applications in 2016 and

2017 in Newcastle faded.

The North East however is the weakest English region

for home improvement. There were 1.2 applications for

home improvement in 2018 for every 100 private homes,

compared with 2.0 for Britain as a whole. Even its top-

ranked district sits outside the top 50% of local authorities

for home improvement.

Having seen a steady rise since 2013 with strong growth

last year, there was a decline in the number of planning

applications submitted for home improvement in 2018,

down 2.7% on 2017.

Despite the North East tending to have an older age group

than the UK average, which in some regions suggests higher

levels of home improvement, the powerful drivers are average

earnings and house prices. Both are relatively low in the North

East, which explains much of the relatively low level of home

improvement. Low house prices and a dip, at least in real

terms, over the past year appears to have stalled what was a

gently rising trend in home improvement over recent years.

The big riser in the region is Gateshead, which rose to third

in the table, with applications up by about a fifth. This may

have been expected given the focus on regeneration in the

area, which has, among other things, supported house price

growth. It is noteworthy that in Gateshead more than any

other district in the region the number of applications for loft

conversions and house extensions for every 100 house moves

is currently the highest, with homeowners less readily selling.

In 2018, regionally, the North East, relative to the size of

the private housing stock, was the least likely to see an

application for a loft conversion. You were more than eight

times as likely to see an application for a loft conversion

in London than the North East and one and a half times

as likely in the North West. This is in keeping with low land

values in the region.

Despite the dip in applications overall for home

improvement, the number for extensions held up. This

is particularly positive given the more relaxed rules on

permitted development.

Spending on home improvements in the region, although

well below the national average, had been stronger in

2016 and 2017. However, it dipped in 2018. The average

household in the region spent just above £700 a year

on home improvements annually across 2017 and 2018,

according to the Office of National Statistics Family

Spending survey. This suggests a total annual spend by

households in the North East on altering and improving

homes of about £860 million.

Sunderland, which in 2018 had the lowest average earnings

in the region, continues to be firmly rooted to the bottom of

the table.

FOCUS ON…

North East


★ Northumberland 1.6 1.8 1.8 5

2 Newcastle upon Tyne 1.5 1.7 1.5 -5

3 Gateshead 6 0.9 1 1.2 26

4 North Tyneside 1 1.4 1.3 1.2 -11

5 Darlington 1.1 1.2 1.1 -2

6 Stockton on Tees 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1

7 South Tyneside 3 1.3 1.2 1 -18

8 Durham 1 1 1 -2

9 Middlesbrough NEW 1 0.9 1 0

10 Redcar and Cleveland 0.9 1 0.9 -2

10 North East 1.1 1.2 1.2 -1.1


North East districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.

TOP10

IN APPLICATIONSGrowth faded

Still at the bottom of the regional ranking in England, a lift in home

improvement planning applications in 2016 and 2017 faded in 2018

Households in the region on average spent across 2017 and 2018 just above £700 a

year altering and improving their homes, producing an annual spend across the

region of £860 million


IS THE BIG RISERGateshead

climbing 6 places to 3rd in the North East’s table

26% Gateshead

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North East


Trafford and Ribble Valley continue to top the home

improvers chart in the North West, but with Trafford edging

further ahead over the past couple of years as home

improvement in more urban areas has risen on the back of

rising house prices.

The confidence to invest in the building stock, particularly in

Greater Manchester, in recent years has elevated the region

to the fastest growing for home improvement applications

over the past three years. Despite this the number received

for every 100 private homes in the North West is just 1.4,

well below the average of 2.0 across Britain. In England only

the North East has a lower ratio of home-improvement

applications per 100 private homes. Overall, the total number

of applications for the region was just over 37,500 in 2018.

The tussle at the top between Ribble Valley and Trafford

illustrates the turning tides we see in home improvement

and reflects the different drivers of home-improvement

activity. Ribble Valley reflects the push for home

improvement among wealthier and generally more mature

households living in rural and picturesque spots. In the

North West these would include the likes of Eden and

South Lakeland. Trafford represents the impetus for home

improvement among younger urban households driven by

rising house prices and incomes. Currently the surge is with

the urbanites.

This is nowhere better seen in the region than in Manchester

borough. Although not in the top 10 places in the region, it

has seen a 70% rise in home-improvement applications over

the past two years. Admittedly this was from a low base, but

it hints at how fortunes can turn quite rapidly in urban areas

with regeneration and house-price inflation. House prices in

the district grew 16% over the past two years, faster than in

any other district in the region.

The surge in activity in the North West, epitomised by areas

of Greater Manchester, has supported the strongest growth

in the north of England for loft improvements, up more than

30% in the North West between 2016 and 2018.

Meanwhile, Blackpool continues to be the most stubbornly

weak area for home improvement, yet again holding up

both the regional and the national tables. House prices have

still to reach their pre-recession level and in real terms show

little sign of growth. At just one application made each year

for home improvements for every 250 private homes it sits

well below Hyndburn in the region and comfortably ranks

the lowest rate in Britain.

In terms of average spend per household, although still

just below the national average, the figures from the Office

for National Statistics Family Spending survey suggest

spending was solid in 2018. They suggest the average

household in 2017 and 2018, including renters, spent almost

£1,300 annually on home improvements. That makes the

estimated market for home improvements in the North

West worth about £3.9 billion.

FOCUS ON…

North West


★ Trafford 2.2 2.5 2.6 11

2 Ribble Valley 2.3 2.4 2.5 6

3 Cheshire East 1 1.9 2.2 2.3 14

4 Eden 1 2.3 2.4 2.3 -2

5 South Lakeland 2 2 2.1 8

6 West Lancashire 1.9 1.9 2 4

7 Fylde 1 1.5 1.9 1.9 11

8 Stockport 1 1.7 1.9 1.9 2

9 Lancaster NEW 1.8 1.8 1.9 4

10 Cheshire West and Chester 1 1.9 1.8 1.8 -4

8 North West 1.3 1.4 1.4 5.0


North West districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.

TOP10


MORE THAN

APPLICATIONS37,400

Regionally, over the past three years the North West has seen the greatest growth in home improvement,

with applications up 15%

Households in the region on average spent across 2017 and 2018 almost £1,300 a year


ON AVERAGE OVER PREVIOUS 3 YEARS15% increase


14%

Cheshire East

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North West


East Lothian is back on top of the Scottish home-

improvement league table for 2018, nudging back ahead of

Argyle & Bute, with both seeing slight rises in the number of

home-improvement applications submitted in the year.

However, although they top the Scottish table, East Lothian

sees 2.1 home-improvement applications per 100 private

homes and Argyle & Bute just 2.0 against the 2.0 average

across Britain.

So, most local authorities sit well below that British

average and Scotland overall scores below every English

region and Wales on this count. It has seen applications

gently but steadily decline since 2014. It must, however,

be borne in mind that housing and planning are

devolved responsibilities, so caution should be taken

over comparisons as differences in the regulations and

interpretations of permitted development will affect

whether people make applications.

However, the Office of National Statistics Family Spending

survey does support the view that home improvement has

waned in Scotland in recent years. The average spending

on home improvements by households in Scotland, while

lower than in the North East and Wales, is well below the

average across Great Britain and has declined since 2015.

The figures suggest that households spent on average about

£760 annually across 2017 and 2018, amounting to a total

annual spend across the nation on home improvements of

£1.9 billion.

With differences in the planning regulations, caution should

be taken in making comparisons with the rest of Britain. But

the relatively low level of home-improvement spending will

reflect the lower house prices, the lowest outside the North

East. The relatively slow population growth in Scotland over

the past 10 years will be a further factor.

Scots households appear to be four times less likely to

improve rather than move. This may say something about

the relative ease of buying and selling homes in Scotland.

But what the numbers show is that for every 100 home

sales there are just over six applications for loft work, home

extensions or basements. This compares with an average

across Britain of about 25.

Given that much of the home-improvement activity is in rural

Scotland where homes are substantially bigger, it seems

reasonable that the desire to increase the floor area may well

be lower. Furthermore, house prices are low relative to most

parts of Britain, so the financial benefits are much weaker.

The overall number of home-improvement applications was

about 21,500 in 2018, down slightly on 2017.

Across much of Britain, outside the shadow of London,

home-improvement activity tends to be more prevalent in

less urban areas. This is very evident in Scotland, where the

top districts for home improvement are heavily weighted to

rural or semi-rural areas. So, the fact that Glasgow sits at the

bottom of the table in Scotland might be expected.

FOCUS ON…

Scotland


★ East Lothian 1 2 1.9 2.1 6

2 Argyll and Bute 1 1.9 2 2 4

3 East Renfrewshire 1 1.7 1.7 1.7 -1

4 Stirling 1 1.6 1.8 1.6 -5

5 East Dunbartonshire 1.4 1.6 1.6 6

6 Scottish Borders 1.4 1.5 1.5 2

7 Perth and Kinross 2 1.5 1.4 1.4 -3

8 Edinburgh 2 1.4 1.4 1.4 -1

9 Fife 2 1.4 1.4 1.4 -5

10 Western Isles NEW 1.3 1.2 1.4 9

11 Scotland 1.1 1.1 1.1 -2.2

*2018 compared with average of 2016 and 2017 Source: Barbour ABI, Scottish Government

Scotland districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.

TOP10

Home improvement tends to be more prevalent in less

urban areas in Scotland

LESS LIKELY

STRONGER IN

Improvements

Less urban areas

Scotland appears to be the least likely part of Britain for homeowners to

improve rather than move

Scottish households on average spent across 2017 and 2018 about £760 a year altering and

improving their homes, which amounts to about £2 billion across the nation


9%

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Scotland


Sevenoaks has topped the table for home improvers in 2018

both in the South East and nationally. Despite a 3% fall in

home improvement applications, Sevenoaks jumped above

a faster-falling South Bucks, which saw applications drop

7% in 2018.

Sevenoaks appears to have had a later spurt in activity than

many other home improver hot spots and its momentum

seems to have carried it to the top while the heat is coming

out of the home-improver markets faster elsewhere.

But in line with all the top performers in the region,

Sevenoaks is a leafy borough covering one or more well-

manicured commuter towns. Given the strong link with

house prices, the borough might, along with Chichester,

seem to be punching slightly above its weight. But both

have seen strong house-price growth relative to others in

the region over the past couple of years.

The key factors that promote planning applications for home

improvement are earnings, wealth, house prices and house-

price inflation, while pleasant rural and semi-rural settings

help. So, it’s no surprise that these areas in the South East

do well in the national home-improver league. However,

whereas a year earlier nine of the 10 in the South East table

were represented in the top 25 nationally (the tenth district

placed 26 in the national table) in 2018 there were seven.

This relative weakening says much about the slowing house-

price growth in the region relative to elsewhere.

However, when it comes to cash spent on home

improvement, the South East remains the mother lode. More

is spent annually by households on home improvement

in the South East than in any other region. The Office for

National Statistics Family Spending survey suggests that

households across the region spent more than £7.7 billion

on home improvements annually across 2017 and 2018, with

the average household spending more than £2,100 a year per

household on altering and improving their home.

In terms of home-improvement applications, it comes

second only to London, with more than 90,700 applications

made in 2018. This was a drop of 4.6% on the 2017 figure. But

this still means that for every 100 private homes 2.7 home-

improvement applications are made each year, compared

with an average across Britain of 2.0.

When considering the dip in home improvement it is worth

noting the relaxation in permitted development rules, which

will feed through over time. This will reduce applications for

some types of work. It is worth noting that while there may

be fewer applications for basements, the number for loft

conversions and extensions in the region increased in 2018.

At the bottom of the list of boroughs in the South East

for home improvement come Gosport, Portsmouth and

Southampton, more urbanised districts with generally

lower average annual earnings. Here these local authorities

received less than one application for home improvement

for every 100 private homes.

FOCUS ON…

South East


★ Sevenoaks 1 5.4 5.7 5.5 -1

2 South Bucks 1 6.1 5.8 5.3 -10

3 Chichester 5 4.7 4.3 5.3 17

4 Elmbridge 1 5.4 5.4 4.8 -11

5 Guildford 1 5.1 4.8 4.6 -7

6 Windsor and Maidenhead NEW 4.5 4.1 4 -7

7 Chiltern 1 4.7 4.5 4 -12

8 Mole Valley 1 3.6 4.3 3.9 0

9 Tunbridge Wells 4 4.4 4.5 3.9 -12

10 Hart 3 4.4 4.4 3.9 -11

2 South East 2.8 2.9 2.7 -4.1


South East districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.

TOP10


MORE THAN

APPLICATIONS90,700

The relationship between house prices and home

improvement applications is strong but house price

growth matters too in the South East

IS KEY

House price growth

Households in the region on average spent across 2017 and 2018 more than £2,100 a year altering and improving their homes


17%

Chichester

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South East


Cotswold District held its place at the top of the South West

home-improvers league for 2018 and regained a place in

the top 25 national table. It saw a slight increase in home-

improvement applications submitted in 2018 after a dip the

year before.

The Cotswolds ticks most of the boxes you might expect

when it comes to demand for home improvement.

Average earnings are high, wealthy folk are moving in,

it’s picturesque and suitably rural and house prices are

high and rising. But while all that has fuelled a rise in the

planning applications submitted in the borough for home

improvements, growth has eased over the past two years.

The rural idyll that is the South Hams and the spa city of

Bath remain strong districts for home improvement, but the

pick for star performer in the region in 2018 would probably

go to Stroud. Home-improvement activity had waned after

2014 but has surged back up the table. Meanwhile, last year’s

star performer, East Dorset, consolidated its position in

the table, while Forest of Dean came in at number 10 in the

region after two years of solid growth in home-improvement

applications.

As a region the South West tends to perform better than

the average across Britain, certainly in less active periods.

In 2018 there were 45,300 planning applications for home

improvement, which works out at just under 2.1 applications

for home improvement for every 100 private homes and

slightly above the national average of 2.0.

While home-improvement applications have dropped in the

region and across Britain appear to be on the slide, there is

some comfort. The South West tends to be the least volatile

region when it comes to changes in applications. A steady

flow of equity-rich downsizers and movers from London and

the South East has tended to sustain demand even when

the economy is faltering.

In terms of the types of home improvements, for a given

number of private homes, outside the South East the

South West sees most applications for conservatories and

has seen the least decline in applications over the past five

or six years. When it comes to extensions to homes, The

Cotswolds comes out top, but interestingly the hotspot for

loft work in 2018 in the region was Christchurch followed

by Bath.


suggests that households across the South West region

spent about £3.5 billion on home improvements annually

across 2017 and 2018. In the region the average household

spent almost £1,600 a year on altering and improving their

homes, the highest level outside London and the South

East regions.

FOCUS ON…

South West


★ Cotswold 4.5 4.1 4.2 -3

2 South Hams 3.2 3.5 3.5 4

3 Bath & North East Somerset 3.1 3.4 3.2 -1

4 Stroud 3 3 2.8 3.2 11

5 North Dorset 1 3.2 2.9 2.8 -10

6 Cheltenham 1 2.7 3 2.6 -8

7 Christchurch 2 2.4 2.6 2.5 2

8 East Dorset 2 1.9 2.6 2.5 13

9 Mendip 1 2.7 2.7 2.5 -8

10 Forest of Dean NEW 2.2 2.4 2.5 11

4 South West 2.1 2.1 2.1 -2.1


South West districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.

TOP10


MORE THAN

APPLICATIONS45,300

COMES OUT TOPThe Cotswolds

in the region for applications for house extensions over the past two years, while Christchurch tops the

region for loft work

Households in the region on average spent across 2017 and 2018 about £1,600 a year altering and improving their homes, amounting to £3.5 billion annually across the region


13%

East Dorset

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South West


Powys held its place at the top of the Welsh home-

improvers league in 2018 despite a surge in applications

in Monmouthshire, which saw it knock Vale of Glamorgan

down to the third spot.

Powys tops the table despite having relatively low average

earnings within Wales. And, while house prices are above the

Welsh average, they are well below those in Monmouthshire

and the Vale of Glamorgan. But while there is a moderate

link between house prices and home improvement in Wales

the link with income is much weaker than in most other

parts of Britain.

Key factors that favour Powys is that a large proportion is in

or near to a national park, Brecon Beacons, where holiday

and second homes will flourish. There is also a high level

of retirees. And the proportion of managers, directors and

senior officials within its working population is higher than

the proportion in either Wales or Great Britain.

It could be that its relatively low house prices compared

with other such areas of Wales may be proving an advantage

to those looking for a retirement or second home.

It’s worth noting that the ratio of home-improvement

applications to house moves is high in Powys compared

with other parts of Wales, although this is in part down to

the slow turnover of the housing stock. But it does suggest

householders may be more predisposed to improve than

sell. This in part reflects the population profile, with its

higher proportion of retirees.

While Powys may top the table in Wales, its level of home

improvement relative to the housing stock in Powys,

at 2.1 per 100 private homes, is still only slightly above

the 2.0 average across Britain. Wales overall has a home

improvement to stock ratio which is above Scotland, but

below every English region excepting the North East.

However, where English regions have seen their rates

decline, in Wales there was a continued rise in home-

improvement planning applications in 2018, up 2.3% on the

year to 16,300, which suggests 1.4 applications for every 100

private homes.

When it comes to money invested in home improvement,

the Office for National Statistics Family Spending survey

figures have been a bit disappointing over the past two

years. They suggest that households in total across Wales

spent an average of about £875 million annually on home

improvements over 2017 and 2018, which comes to an

average annual household spend of £660 a year on altering

and improving homes. This puts Wales at the bottom of

the pile with about half the amount spent by the average

British household.

Blaenau Gwent continues to be stuck at the bottom of the

home-improvers pile in Wales and it looks set to hold that

position for some while yet. With the lowest average house

prices, it saw the number of applications fall again and has

dropped into the bottom 25 local authorities nationally.

FOCUS ON…

Wales


★ Powys 1.7 2.1 2.1 9

2 Monmouthshire 2 1.7 1.8 2 13

3 Vale of Glamorgan 1 2 1.8 2 6

4 Pembrokeshire 1 1.7 1.8 1.9 9

5 Ceredigion 1.7 1.6 1.6 0

6 Anglesey 2 1.4 1.5 1.6 8

7 Denbighshire 1 1.6 1.5 1.5 1

8 Gwynedd 1 1.9 1.5 1.5 -9

9 Swansea 2 1.4 1.5 1.5 5

10 Cardiff 1.5 1.4 1.4 0

9 Wales 1.3 1.3 1.4 3.1

*2018 compared with average of 2016 and 2017 Source: Barbour ABI, StatsWales

Wales districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.

TOP10

submitted for home improvement in Wales

APPLICATIONS16,300

IS WEAKERLink to income

The link between income and home improvement is much weaker in Wales

than in many other parts of Britain

Households on average spent across 2017 and 2018 almost £660 a year altering and

improving their homes, suggesting that the annual household spend across Wales was

£875 million


13%

Monmouthshire

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Wales


Despite a continued drop in home-improvement

applications over the past three years, Stratford-on-Avon

comfortably retained its place at the top of the regional

league in 2018. Since peaking in 2015 and 2018 there was a

near 20% fall in the number of home improvement planning

applications in the district and it has dropped from 29th to

66th in the national ranking.

That its top performer is so lowly ranked nationally

underlines the relatively low level of home improvement

in the West Midlands compared with other parts of Britain.

As an English region, it ranks just above the North East and

North West when it comes to the likelihood of a householder

applying for permission to improve their home, with 1.5

applications for home improvement made for every 100

private homes – well below the national average of 2.0.

This relatively low level of activity is reflected in the official

figures on family spending. In cash terms the Office for

National Statistics Family Spending survey suggests that

on average a household in the region spent less than £800

a year in 2017 and 2018. This compares with an average of

almost £1,500 in England as a whole. That doesn’t mean the

market is small. Total spending is running annually at about

£1.9 billion across the region.

Stratford-on-Avon, however, ticks many boxes for home

improvement, particularly with its cultural and historical

heritage. Furthermore, its rural connections add to

its strength. In the West Midlands there is a stronger

link between higher numbers of home-improvement

applications and the more rural locations than elsewhere

in Britain. Indeed, two of the more recent risers in the table,

Hereford, which now sits second, and fifth-placed Malvern

Hills both have strong rural ties. However, one urban district

worth watching is Coventry, which has seen significant

growth over the past two years.

When it comes to the mix of types of home improvement, the

West Midlands is more heavily weighted towards extensions

than in any other region. For every application that mentions

loft, there are almost nine that mention extension – a ratio

higher than anywhere else in Britain in 2018. Given the link

between home improvement and rural locations in the

region, we should perhaps expect to see this.

Areas that tend to score lowest in the region are the urban

and industrial, especially where average incomes are low.

Stoke on Trent seems rooted to the bottom of the regional

rankings, well below Redditch, which dropped five places in

the table in 2018. But, Stoke aside, there is little difference

among many of those towards the foot of the table.

On a positive note, while the region may be among the

weaker in Britain for home improvement, along with the

North West, East Midlands and Wales, it saw increasing

numbers of applications for home improvement, while

applications fell across Britain as a whole. There was 1%

growth in 2018 in the number of applications submitted,

with submissions rising above 29,400 across the West

Midlands. This suggests 1.5 applications for every 100

private homes in the region.

FOCUS ON…

West Midlands


★ Stratford-on-Avon 3.5 3.4 3.1 -11

2 Herefordshire 1 1.7 2.5 2.5 20

3 Warwick 1 2.1 2.5 2.4 3

4 Shropshire 1 2.3 2.4 2.3 0

5 Malvern Hills 2 1.6 2 2.3 27

6 Solihull 2 2.3 2.4 2.3 -3

7 Wychavon 1 2.1 2.3 2.1 -6

8 North Warwickshire 1 1.9 1.7 1.9 9

9 Lichfield 1 1.7 1.9 1.8 1

10 South Staffordshire 1.4 1.7 1.7 13

7 West Midlands 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.8


West Midlands districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.

TOP10

made in the region for home improvement in 2018, a rise of

1% on the previous year

APPLICATIONS29,400

IS STILL SHININGHerefordshire

Herefordshire continues to shine in 2018 after proving a

star performer in 2017

Households in the region on average spent across 2017 and 2018 almost £800 a year



27%

Malvern Hills

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West Midlands


Harrogate continued to top the ranking for home

improvement among the local authorities of Yorkshire

& Humber despite a fall in the number of planning

applications in 2018.

Harrogate’s planners received 3.0 applications for every

100 private homes in the district, which is on a par with the

level over the previous two years. It is twice the average for a

region, which at 1.6 sits well below the 2.1 British average.

Yorkshire & Humber, along with the West Midlands, shows the

strongest links between less densely-populated boroughs

and greater levels of home improvement. And we see this in

the districts riding high in the table, Richmondshire, Rydale

and Craven. And most notably we see it in how the district of

Hambleton bounced back in 2018 with an increase in home

improvement applications of more than 20%. This followed a

slump in activity over the previous three years.

As a region Yorkshire & Humber saw applications stagnate

in 2018. But looking more widely at the region, it was noted

last year that there was an encouraging increase in home

improvement in some of the bigger cities in the region.

This tendency, although patchy, seems to be holding. This

supports the view that a wider spread of factors driving the

market, beyond the spending power of the relatively affluent

that one might associate with the more picturesque districts

in the region.

But while activity varies over time, it remains the case that

house prices are a key indicator of which boroughs in the

region are more likely to see home owners put in a home-

improvement application.

The bias of home improvement towards rural locations

possibly also accounts for the relatively poor showing on loft

works. But the increase in more urban areas of late has seen

the number of applications rise by almost 40% over the past

two years, far faster than the 16% rise in house extensions

over the same period. Unsurprisingly Leeds and Bradford

dominate, accounting for about 45% of the applications for

loft conversions in the region.

Across the region home-improvement planning applications

were fractionally down in 2018 compared with 2017 standing

at 30,200. This suggests that for every 100 private homes in

the region there were just above 1.5 applications.

North East Lincolnshire, centred on Grimsby, and Hull

remain at the bottom of the regional home-improver league.

The bump in home improvement that preceded Hull’s year

as UK City of Culture in 2017, whether a coincidence or not,

seems to have faded.


suggests that the average household in the region spent

about £1,400 on home improvements annually over 2017

and 2018. The figure is about on a par, if not above, the UK

average. This suggests a total annual spend in the Yorkshire

& Humber of £3.2 billion.

FOCUS ON…

Yorkshire & Humber


★ Harrogate 2.9 3.2 3 0

2 Hambleton 4 2.4 2.3 2.8 20

3 Craven 1 2.8 2.8 2.7 -5

4 Richmondshire 2 3.1 3 2.6 -16

5 York 2.3 2.4 2.3 -4

6 Ryedale 3 3.1 3 2.2 -27

7 Leeds 1.7 1.8 1.8 5

8 Selby 2 1.8 1.6 1.8 5

9 East Riding of Yorkshire 1 1.7 1.7 1.7 -2

10 Bradford 1 1.7 1.6 1.7 0

6 Yorkshire & Humber 1.5 1.6 1.5 0.1


Yorkshire & Humber districts for home improvementNumber of home improvement applications for every 100 private homes.

TOP10

STILL IMPROVING

Cities

A shift in activity from the rural idylls to inner cities has

changed the mix of home improvement work, with a 40% rise in applications

for loft works over the past two years

The link between house prices and home improvement appears far stronger in Yorkshire & Humber than in other regions of Britain

SEEM KEY TO GROWTHHouse prices

The annual spend by households on altering and improving their homes in Yorkshire & Humber across 2017 and 2018 was almost £1,400, amounting to £3.2 billion across the region


20%

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Yorkshire & Humber


Looking forward to how much home improvement

activity we might reasonably expect in the year ahead

it is hard to get beyond the unknown impact of Brexit.

There is no road map for the change this might make

to the UK economy.

Not that without Brexit things would be easy. The

home improvement market is in a period of transition,

with a wave of activity emanating from London

having washed over the regions while the market in

the capital has moved into decline.

Unpicking and separating the potential and unknown

impacts of Brexit from the more normal changes

created by the business cycle presents a particularly

tricky challenge. What we can say of Brexit, and

certainly the run up to it, is that it created uncertainty,

which is normally associated with a reduced

confidence when it comes to the big-ticket spending

associated with home improvement.

The data shows a decline in home-improvement

applications in 2018. But there was a rise in the more

than half of overall applications that are for loft works,

house extensions or basements. These tend to be

associated with more work.

What this doesn’t tell us is whether there has been

a reduction in the average spend on these home

improvements. Given that there has been a wave of

growth moving out from inner London, with growth

more widespread, we might assume that the average

value of projects is less. Certainly, the spate of high-

value basement work in London seems to have abated.

EconomyTurning to the construction output data for private

housing repair, maintenance and improvement work

the suggestion is that spending is down. There was

a drop of 1.1% according to the Office for National

Statistics, but this follows a surge in activity in 2017.

The Family Spending data suggest that spending in

the year to March 2018 was similar to the previous

year, if not a bit up. But these figures are erratic and,

while they give a good indication of the approximate

level, are insufficiently accurate for judging small

changes year to year.

Car sales have historically been a useful forward

indicator of activity in home improvement. They

tend to reflect the willingness of households to make

big-ticket purchases. The data here is rather gloomy.

2018 was the second consecutive year of decline, with

sales down 6% in 2017 and 7% in 2018.

There are special circumstances here as there were

incentives in earlier years that boosted purchases and

inevitably brought forward many. This was followed

by the diesel scandal that hit confidence. So, the

figures will reflect more than just a hesitance to spend

on big-ticket items. But they do build to the stack of

indicators on the gloomy side of the balance.

Consumer confidence also seems to be pointing

to a decline in home improvement applications,

which fits with the general direction of many of the

economic indicators.

A further issue to consider must be in the reaction

in the money markets to Brexit-related events,

although the scenarios here are wide and varied.

Critical is whether any exchange rate shifts prompt

a rise in interest rates. This could dampen the home

improvement market in those areas where we might

expect growth, not least because it would bear down

on house prices.

OutlookSo, pulling potential strands together, at a national

level the suggestion in the numbers is that we should

reasonably expect to see falls in home improvement,

if only because the business cycle does appear to be

running its course. So far, the data does not point to a

sharp fall, but there is exceptional uncertainty.

Looked at regionally the pattern of a wave of activity

moving out from central London seems established,

with central London cooling fast. There is every

reason to hope for continued improvement in the

North West and Midlands, which have shown strong

growth over the past few years. But the prospects

for the growth regions outside London may well rest

with the strength of regional house price rises, wage

growth and certainty over employment.

The regions currently displaying growth are those

more heavily dependent on trade in manufacturing.

Disruption here could have a significant impact on the

confidence among home owners. A spate of job cuts in

the wake of Brexit, for example, would quickly dampen

ardour for home improvement. Clearly a Brexit bounce

on the other hand might strengthen confidence.

Should the economic prospects of those of working

age be damaged, we would expect to see the areas

come to the fore where wealth rather than income

is a bigger driver of home improvement. This would

suggest the South West and the more rural parts

of Britain.

We need only listen to the conflicting debates over

the economic benefits of Brexit to understand

that the future is confused. That does not mean

the market holds no promise. The need and the

opportunities to improve the existing housing stock

of Britain remain huge.

OUTLOOK…

Looking forward

What we can say of Brexit, and certainly the run up to it, is that it created uncertainty, which is normally associated with a reduced confidence when it comes

to the big-ticket spending associated with home improvement

Consumer confidence also seems to be pointing to a decline in home

improvement applications

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CaveatsThe level of applications for home improvement is not a direct measure of the level of work

done. This level will be influenced by the mix of work and the size of the projects. It will also

be influenced by the proportion of applications that are granted, the proportion that are

withdrawn or are resubmissions to accommodate a significant change in the project and

the proportion of those granted permission that are subsequently built out.

The approach of measuring applications, however, does give an indication of forward future

demand, as it is a clear signal from homeowners of an intention to improve their home.

There are, however, issues to note about planning applications, especially when

examining the differing types of work that might be permitted.

Most important to note is that legislation changes and is applied differently across the

areas of the nation, given that housing is devolved to the nations of Britain and that

different rules apply in designated areas such as national parks.

Furthermore, the impact of changes to legislation will vary from location to location, given

that the blend of types of home improvement will be different – more outbuildings in rural

locations, more loft extensions and basements in expensive urban areas.

A notable recent change to permitted development rights in England was introduced in

May 2013. This allowed for larger single-storey rear extensions to be built without planning

permission, although subject to neighbourhood consultation.

Examining Barbour ABI planning application data from 2011 to 2017, there appears to be

little evidence of any major impact on the proportion of all applications for single-storey

rear extensions which have continued to grow within the total number of extension

applications since 2013.

Had the regulatory change greatly altered the choices made by homeowners we would

have expected to see a distinct break in this relationship. It may be that the extension of

permitted rights prompted the construction of additional single-storey extensions that

would not otherwise have been built. This we cannot measure.

The Home Improvers survey is based on the number of

planning applications for residential improvements received

by each planning authority compared with the estimate for

the number of private homes within that authority. They

therefore represent intentions to undertake work rather

than actual activity.

The estimates of the housing stock are taken from DCLG,

Welsh Government and Scottish Government data sources.

From this a number is arrived at which represents how many

home improvement applications there are for each 100

private homes in a local authority.

Some local authorities are excluded – the Channel Islands,

Isles of Scilly and Isle of Man. This year, home improvement

applications for all the national parks, which act as planning

authorities, have been allocated to the local boroughs

within which they fall.

Also, while calculations were done for all boroughs, omitted

from the lists and rankings are authorities where there are

fewer than 10,000 private homes. These are City of London,

Orkney and Shetland. Their contributions do, however,

feature in the regional tables.

Because the data tends to be erratic, to get a more sensible

picture of growth in the latest year in most cases we

compare the latest figure with the average of the previous

two years. This we believe provides a better base for judging

relative growth in an area.

The spending data used comes from the Office for National

Statistics Family Spending data. This fluctuates greatly so

two-year averages are generally used.

2011 Census data are used for population comparisons.

House prices and sales are taken from the Office for National

Statistics, with enhancements to the more recent figures

using HM Land Registry and Registers of Scotland data.

Income data is the mean average taken from the Annual

Survey on Hours and Earnings.

Data for new car registrations are taken from the motor

industry trade body SMMT.

There may be apparent discrepancies with the historic

figures published in previous years. These are inevitable as

data are revised.

The data for home-improvement types is taken from

planning applications. An application may include one,

none or many of the types included in the report. They

should be regarded as indicative of trends rather than

accurate as the level of detail provided will vary application

to application.

The box and whisker charts help understand the

distribution of results. Excluding outliers, which appear as

dots, the box contains results falling into the middle two

quartiles, the whiskers show the spread of results in the

two outer quartiles. The line in the box is the median and

X marks the mean.

REFERENCES…

Methodology, notes and caveats

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