hold value indicators : bloomberg: fben gr programmatic ad
TRANSCRIPT
Fyber (PrimeAll, Software/IT)
A n a l y s t
Patrick Schmidt [email protected]
+49 40 309537-125
CO M M E N T Published 31.08.2018 08:15 1
RESEARCH
Hold
EUR under review
Price EUR 0.24
n/a
Value Indicators: EUR Share data: Description:
DCF: 1.51
Bloomberg: FBEN GR
Reuters: FBENn.DE
ISIN: NL0012377394
Programmatic "ad-tech" platform with a focus on mobile app advertising solutions
Market Snapshot: EUR m Shareholders: Risk Profile (WRe): 2018e
Market cap: 27.9
No. of shares (m): 114.5
EV: 183.1
Freefloat MC: 9.7
Ø Trad. Vol. (30d): 4.75 th
Freefloat 34.7 %
Stichting Horizon One(Sapinda)
38.4 %
Abu Dhabi Securities 18.0 %
Altera Absolute GMF 5.5 %
Beta: 2.2
Equity Ratio: -5 %
Liquidity issues loom large; possible financial restructuring ahead
Stated Figures Q2/2018: Comment on Figures:
� Preliminary figures for gross sales and EBITDA were already published on July 23, as well as an announcement of a revision to the FY 2018 guidance.
� Steep sales decline, owing to one-time exclusion of aggregator business. � However, this enhances the net revenue margin, which is up significantly to
37.3% in Q2 18 compared to 29.0% in Q2 17. � EBITDA is still negative. However, operational costs are under control and the
Q2 figure represents a considerable improvement compared to Q1 18, which reported EBITDA of EUR -4.0m.
Guidance: In July, Fyber announced preliminary figures and its intention to revise the guidance. Final H1 2018 was reported Wednesday,
(29.08.2018), together with details of the new FY 2018 guidance, which forecasts gross sales of EUR 150–180m (vs. EUR 220–240m) and flat
adj. EBITDA (vs. EUR 5–8m). Mid-term guidance (2021) for gross sales of >EUR 400m and adj. EBITDA of >EUR 40m remains unchanged.
Operational development: Reasons for the guidance cut include the exclusion of the aggregators business as planned (which, however, is
resulting in a faster than expected decline in revenues), the ban on Google’s charging-screen ads in China, and internal restructuring of the
company’s sales force. Considering the rather one-off character of these issues and that cost structures seem to be under control, we are
positive about future operational development and expect top-line growth for 2019. Net revenue development is also encouraging, given the
increase in the net revenue margin to 37.3%. Nevertheless, our estimates are adjusted for the significant cut to the guidance and, ultimately,
operational development is overshadowed by the company’s financially distressed situation.
Funding: With its H1 2018 report, Fyber reported a cash position of EUR 10.9m compared to EUR 17.6m in FY 2017. While additional funding
already raised the FY 17 cash position by EUR 13.2m, the cash position until the end of June 2018 was lifted by another EUR 6.3m. After fully
drawing down the EUR 8m short-term loan from Sapinda, Fyber agreed on another loan of EUR 4m from Sapinda within the next months at the
same conditions – short-term interest of 8%. The loan is due at the end of 2019. Given the outstanding convertible bond and considering the
recent share dilution at Wild Bunch, a film production company with a similar financial relationship with Sapinda, we see a significant risk for a
massive dilution of current shareholders and wouldn’t touch the share right now.
Fyber - Q2 2018
in EUR m Q2/18 Q2/18e Q2/17 yoy 6M/18 6M/17 yoy
Gross Sales 29.5 30.0 69.9 -57.8% 58.8 119.7 -50.9%
Net Sales 11.0 10.5 20.3 -45.8% 21.2 35.0 -39.4%
Margin 37.3% 35.0% 29.0% 36.1% 29.2%
EBITDA adjusted -2.0 -2.0 1.3 - -6.0 -3.7 62.2%
margin -6.8% -6.7% 1.9% -10.2% -3.1%
Changes in Estimates: Comment on Changes:
FY End: 31.12. in EUR m
2018e (old)
+ / - 2019e (old)
+ / - 2020e (old)
+ / -
Sales 210.0 -28.6 % 280.0 -28.6 % 330.0 -24.2 %
EBITDA 2.3 n.m. 16.6 -63.9 % 23.2 -35.3 %
EPS -0.15 n.m. -0.02 n.m. 0.05 n.m.
� Extensive model adjustments, owing to significant guidance cut. � Operational costs, however, seem to be under control. � Company’s 2021 guidance seems ambitious.
FY End: 31.12. in EUR m
CAGR (17-20e) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e
Sales 2.8 % 0.0 129.1 218.1 229.8 150.0 200.0 250.0
Change Sales yoy n.a. n.a. 68.9 % 5.4 % -34.7 % 33.3 % 25.0 %
Gross profit margin n.a. 100.0 % 28.6 % 30.4 % 20.0 % 23.0 % 25.0 %
EBITDA - 0.0 129.1 -3.4 -1.2 -0.5 6.0 15.0
Margin n.a. 100.0 % -1.5 % -0.5 % -0.3 % 3.0 % 6.0 %
EBIT - 0.0 129.1 -15.4 -97.2 -13.5 -4.0 5.0
Margin n.a. 100.0 % -7.0 % -42.3 % -9.0 % -2.0 % 2.0 %
Net income - 0.0 127.9 -29.9 -102.0 -24.0 -15.5 -6.5
EPS - 0.00 1.12 -0.26 -0.91 -0.21 -0.14 -0.06
EPS adj. - 0.00 1.12 -0.24 -1.01 -0.21 -0.14 -0.06
DPS - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dividend Yield n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
FCFPS 0.00 -0.13 -0.21 -0.16 -0.17 -0.08 0.00
FCF / Market cap 0.0 % -4.5 % -9.0 % -11.5 % -68.7 % -34.0 % -1.8 %
EV / Sales n.a. 2.5 x 1.8 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 1.0 x 0.8 x
EV / EBITDA n.a. 2.5 x n.a. n.a. n.a. 32.1 x 12.9 x
EV / EBIT n.a. 2.5 x n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 38.6 x
P / E n.a. 2.6 x n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
P / E adj. n.a. 2.6 x n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
FCF Potential Yield 0.0 % -2.2 % -0.8 % 1.3 % 0.8 % 3.4 % 8.0 %
Net Debt 0.0 0.0 122.9 135.9 155.1 164.6 165.1
ROCE (NOPAT) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.4 % Guidance: 2018: Gross Revenues of EUR 150m - 180m; EBITDA of ca. EUR 0m
Rel. Performance vs PrimeAll:
1 month: -24.4 %
6 months: -68.3 %
Year to date: -66.5 %
Trailing 12 months: -77.3 %
Company events:
21.11.18 Q3
Fyber
CO M M E N T Publ ished 31 .08 .2018 2
RESEARCH
Sales development in EUR m
Source: Warburg Research
Sales by regions 2017; in %
Source: Warburg Research
Sales by screen 2017; in %
Source: Warburg Research
Company Background
� Fyber is a global ad-tech company with a clear focus on mobile in-app advertising, enabling publishers to optimize their ad space
returns with the support of intelligent algorithms.
� In 2014, RNTS Media N.V. acquired Fyber GmbH (SponsorPay previously; founded 2009), a leading mobile supply-side platform with
a special focus on gaming apps, which became the core of the company.
� With the acquisitions of Falk Realtime, Heyzap and Inneractive, Fyber enhanced its RTB exchange platform and upgraded its global
reach, broadened its product portfolio and increased its addressable market.
� The financial stability of the company is a risk, worth highlighting. An outstanding convertible bond of EUR 150m matures in July 2020
with a conversion price of EUR 3 per share.
� Cash position of EUR 17.6m (FY 2017), which was increased by another EUR 13.6m short-term borrowings in 2017 represents a
significant liquidity risk.
Competitive Quality
� Via its recent acquisitions, Fyber can offer the full variety of formats across all relevant types (desktop, mobile web and in-app), but
having a clear focus on mobile app video advertising as a differentiating criteria.
� Fyber's background with a clear focus on- and know-how in gaming apps and mobile in-app videos is a clear differentiator and these
segments are among the fastest-growing areas in the ad-tech industry.
� With 1.2bn active monthly users and more than 10,000 connected publishers, Fyber has a large network with a global presence,
providing advertisers (buy side) with a broad reach and detailed user profiles.
adj. EBITDA development in EUR m
Source: Warburg Research
Sales by style 2017; in %
Source: Warburg Research
Sales by segments 2017; in %
Source: Warburg Research
Fyber
CO M M E N T Publ ished 31 .08 .2018 3
RESEARCH
DCF model
Detailed forecast period Transitional period Term. Value
Figures in EUR m 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e
Sales 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 345.0 379.5 409.9 434.5 451.8 460.9 470.1 479.5 489.1
Sales change -34.7 % 33.3 % 25.0 % 20.0 % 15.0 % 10.0 % 8.0 % 6.0 % 4.0 % 2.0 % 2.0 % 2.0 % 2.0 % 2.0 %
EBIT -13.5 -4.0 5.0 12.0 20.7 30.4 41.0 56.5 58.7 59.9 61.1 62.3 63.6
EBIT-margin -9.0 % -2.0 % 2.0 % 4.0 % 6.0 % 8.0 % 10.0 % 13.0 % 13.0 % 13.0 % 13.0 % 13.0 % 13.0 %
Tax rate (EBT) 7.7 % 3.1 % 7.1 % 15.0 % 18.0 % 20.0 % 22.0 % 24.0 % 25.0 % 26.0 % 26.0 % 27.0 % 27.0 %
NOPAT -12.5 -3.9 4.6 10.2 17.0 24.3 32.0 42.9 44.1 44.3 45.2 45.5 46.4
Depreciation 13.0 10.0 10.0 9.0 8.6 5.7 4.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4
in % of Sales 8.7 % 5.0 % 4.0 % 3.0 % 2.5 % 1.5 % 1.0 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 %
Changes in provisions 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Change in Liquidity from
- Working Capital 4.2 0.5 1.0 3.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
- Capex 4.0 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4
Capex in % of Sales 2.7 % 1.8 % 1.2 % 1.0 % 0.9 % 0.8 % 0.7 % 0.6 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 %
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Free Cash Flow (WACC Model)
-7.7 2.1 10.6 12.4 22.0 26.6 32.9 42.2 43.9 44.2 45.1 45.4 46.3 47
PV of FCF -7.4 1.9 8.4 8.8 14.1 15.4 17.2 19.9 18.7 17.0 15.6 14.2 13.1 152 share of PVs 0.91 % 49.95 % 49.14 %
Model parameter Valuation (m)
Derivation of WACC: Derivation of Beta: Present values 2030e 157
Terminal Value 152
Debt ratio 35.00 % Financial Strength 3.00 Financial liabilities 153
Cost of debt (after tax) 5.6 % Liquidity (share) 2.50 Pension liabilities 0
Market return 7.00 % Cyclicality 2.00 Hybrid capital 0
Risk free rate 1.50 % Transparency 2.00 Minority interest 0
Others 1.50 Market val. of investments 0
Liquidity 18 No. of shares (m) 114.5
WACC 10.80 % Beta 2.20 Equity Value 172 Value per share (EUR) 1.51
Sensitivity Value per Share (EUR)
Terminal Growth Delta EBIT-margin
Beta WACC 1.25 % 1.50 % 1.75 % 2.00 % 2.25 % 2.50 % 2.75 % Beta WACC -1.5 pp -1.0 pp -0.5 pp +0.0 pp +0.5 pp +1.0 pp +1.5 pp
2.48 11.8 % 1.08 1.10 1.13 1.15 1.18 1.21 1.24 2.48 11.8 % 0.79 0.91 1.03 1.15 1.27 1.40 1.52
2.34 11.3 % 1.23 1.26 1.29 1.32 1.35 1.39 1.42 2.34 11.3 % 0.93 1.06 1.19 1.32 1.45 1.58 1.71
2.27 11.1 % 1.31 1.34 1.38 1.41 1.45 1.48 1.52 2.27 11.1 % 1.01 1.15 1.28 1.41 1.54 1.67 1.81
2.20 10.8 % 1.40 1.43 1.47 1.51 1.54 1.59 1.63 2.20 10.8 % 1.10 1.23 1.37 1.51 1.64 1.78 1.91
2.13 10.6 % 1.50 1.53 1.57 1.61 1.65 1.69 1.74 2.13 10.6 % 1.19 1.33 1.47 1.61 1.75 1.89 2.03
2.06 10.3 % 1.59 1.63 1.67 1.72 1.76 1.81 1.86 2.06 10.3 % 1.28 1.43 1.57 1.72 1.86 2.01 2.15
1.92 9.8 % 1.81 1.85 1.90 1.95 2.01 2.07 2.13 1.92 9.8 % 1.49 1.65 1.80 1.95 2.11 2.26 2.42
� DCF is based on a detailed planning phase (2018 - 2020), a transitional phase (2020- 2029), and a perpetuity term.
� Further assumptions are a Beta of 2.2, a WACC of 10.8%, and a long-term EBIT margin of 13%.
� Long-term tax rate is assumed to be at 27%
Fyber
CO M M E N T Publ ished 31 .08 .2018 4
RESEARCH
Valuation
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e
Price / Book n.a. n.a. 2.2 x 12.2 x n.a. n.a. n.a.
Book value per share ex intangibles 0.00 0.00 -1.19 -1.26 -1.39 -1.47 -1.47
EV / Sales n.a. 2.5 x 1.8 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 1.0 x 0.8 x
EV / EBITDA n.a. 2.5 x n.a. n.a. n.a. 32.1 x 12.9 x
EV / EBIT n.a. 2.5 x n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 38.6 x
EV / EBIT adj.* n.a. 2.5 x n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 38.6 x
P / FCF n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
P / E n.a. 2.6 x n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
P / E adj.* n.a. 2.6 x n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Dividend Yield n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
FCF Potential Yield (on market EV) 0.0 % -2.2 % -0.8 % 1.3 % 0.8 % 3.4 % 8.0 %
*Adjustments made for: -
Fyber
CO M M E N T Publ ished 31 .08 .2018 5
RESEARCH
Consolidated profit and loss In EUR m 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e
Sales 0.0 129.1 218.1 229.8 150.0 200.0 250.0
Change Sales yoy n.a. n.a. 68.9 % 5.4 % -34.7 % 33.3 % 25.0 % COGS 0.0 0.0 155.7 159.9 97.5 130.0 162.5
Gross profit 0.0 129.1 62.4 69.9 30.0 46.0 62.5
Gross margin n.a. 100.0 % 28.6 % 30.4 % 20.0 % 23.0 % 25.0 %
Research and development 0.0 0.0 19.8 19.6 12.0 16.0 17.5
Sales and marketing 0.0 0.0 25.4 24.6 19.5 22.0 25.0
Administration expenses 0.0 0.0 21.4 15.7 12.0 12.0 15.0
Other operating expenses 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other operating income 0.0 0.0 9.4 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Unfrequent items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBITDA 0.0 129.1 -3.4 -1.2 -0.5 6.0 15.0
Margin n.a. 100.0 % -1.5 % -0.5 % -0.3 % 3.0 % 6.0 %
Depreciation of fixed assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBITA 0.0 129.1 -3.4 -1.2 -0.5 6.0 15.0
Amortisation of intangible assets 0.0 0.0 12.0 13.3 13.0 10.0 10.0
Goodwill amortisation 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBIT 0.0 129.1 -15.4 -97.2 -13.5 -4.0 5.0
Margin n.a. 100.0 % -7.0 % -42.3 % -9.0 % -2.0 % 2.0 %
EBIT adj. 0.0 129.1 -15.4 -97.2 -13.5 -4.0 5.0
Interest income 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Interest expenses 0.0 6.2 14.9 9.9 12.5 12.0 12.0
Other financial income (loss) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBT 0.0 123.0 -30.2 -107.1 -26.0 -16.0 -7.0
Margin n.a. 95.3 % -13.9 % -46.6 % -17.3 % -8.0 % -2.8 %
Total taxes 0.0 -4.8 3.1 -5.1 -2.0 -0.5 -0.5
Net income from continuing operations 0.0 127.9 -33.3 -102.0 -24.0 -15.5 -6.5
Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net income before minorities 0.0 127.9 -29.9 -102.0 -24.0 -15.5 -6.5
Minority interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net income 0.0 127.9 -29.9 -102.0 -24.0 -15.5 -6.5
Margin n.a. 99.0 % -13.7 % -44.4 % -16.0 % -7.8 % -2.6 % Number of shares, average 1.0 114.5 113.2 112.6 114.5 114.5 114.5
EPS 0.00 1.12 -0.26 -0.91 -0.21 -0.14 -0.06
EPS adj. 0.00 1.12 -0.24 -1.01 -0.21 -0.14 -0.06
*Adjustments made for:
Guidance: 2018: Gross Revenues of EUR 150m - 180m; EBITDA of ca. EUR 0m
Financial Ratios 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e
Total Operating Costs / Sales n.a. 0.0 % 35.7 % 72.7 % 29.0 % 25.0 % 23.0 %
Operating Leverage n.a. n.a. n.a. 99.2 x 2.5 x -2.1 x n.a.
EBITDA / Interest expenses n.a. 20.7 x n.m. n.m. n.m. 0.5 x 1.3 x
Tax rate (EBT) n.a. -3.9 % -10.2 % 4.8 % 7.7 % 3.1 % 7.1 %
Dividend Payout Ratio n.a. 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Sales per Employee n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Sales, EBITDA in EUR m
Source: Warburg Research
Operating Performance in %
Source: Warburg Research
Performance per Share
Source: Warburg Research
Fyber
CO M M E N T Publ ished 31 .08 .2018 6
RESEARCH
Consolidated balance sheet In EUR m 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e
Assets
Goodwill and other intangible assets 0.0 0.0 257.0 157.6 148.6 142.1 135.1
thereof other intangible assets 0.0 0.0 40.0 29.5 20.5 14.0 7.0
thereof Goodwill 0.0 0.0 217.0 128.1 128.1 128.1 128.1
Property, plant and equipment 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Financial assets 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Other long-term assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fixed assets 0.0 0.0 259.4 159.8 150.8 144.3 137.3
Inventories 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
Accounts receivable 0.0 0.0 63.5 42.6 30.8 41.1 51.4
Liquid assets 0.0 0.0 25.0 17.6 6.2 1.7 1.2
Other short-term assets 0.0 0.0 17.4 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2
Current assets 0.0 0.0 106.2 71.6 48.5 54.3 64.2
Total Assets 0.0 0.0 365.6 231.4 199.3 198.6 201.5
Liabilities and shareholders' equity
Subscribed capital 0.0 0.0 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5
Capital reserve 0.0 0.0 201.5 210.0 210.0 210.0 210.0
Retained earnings 0.0 0.0 -96.1 -200.1 -224.1 -239.6 -246.1
Other equity components 0.0 0.0 3.5 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2
Shareholders' equity 0.0 0.0 120.4 13.2 -10.8 -26.3 -32.8
Minority interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total equity 0.0 0.0 120.4 13.2 -10.8 -26.3 -32.8
Provisions 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
thereof provisions for pensions and similar obligations 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Financial liabilities (total) 0.0 0.0 147.5 153.1 161.0 166.0 166.0
thereof short-term financial liabilities 0.0 0.0 1.4 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0
Accounts payable 0.0 0.0 78.1 48.9 32.9 42.7 52.1
Other liabilities 0.0 0.0 19.2 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.8
Liabilities 0.0 0.0 245.2 218.2 210.1 224.9 234.3
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 0.0 0.0 365.6 231.4 199.3 198.6 201.5
Financial Ratios 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e
Efficiency of Capital Employment
Operating Assets Turnover n.a. n.a. -17.7 x -46.0 x -191.3 x -704.2 x 349.2 x
Capital Employed Turnover n.a. n.a. 0.9 x 1.5 x 1.0 x 1.4 x 1.9 x
ROA n.a. n.a. -11.5 % -63.8 % -15.9 % -10.7 % -4.7 %
Return on Capital
ROCE (NOPAT) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.4 %
ROE n.a. n.a. -49.7 % -152.6 % -1960.8 % 83.7 % 22.0 %
Adj. ROE n.a. n.a. -45.8 % -170.1 % -1960.8 % 83.7 % 22.0 %
Balance sheet quality
Net Debt 0.0 0.0 122.9 135.9 155.1 164.6 165.1
Net Financial Debt 0.0 0.0 122.5 135.5 154.8 164.3 164.8
Net Gearing n.a. n.a. 102.1 % 1027.7 % -1439.5 % -626.5 % -503.8 %
Net Fin. Debt / EBITDA n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2737.7 % 1098.4 %
Book Value / Share 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3
Book value per share ex intangibles 0.0 0.0 -1.2 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5
ROCE Development
Source: Warburg Research
Net debt in EUR m
Source: Warburg Research
Book Value per Share in EUR
Source: Warburg Research
Fyber
CO M M E N T Publ ished 31 .08 .2018 7
RESEARCH
Consolidated cash flow statement In EUR m 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e
Net income 0.0 -14.9 -29.9 -102.0 -24.0 -15.5 -6.5
Depreciation of fixed assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Amortisation of goodwill 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Amortisation of intangible assets 0.0 0.0 12.0 13.3 13.0 10.0 10.0
Increase/decrease in long-term provisions 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other non-cash income and expenses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash Flow before NWC change 0.0 -14.9 -17.9 -6.1 -11.0 -5.5 3.5
Increase / decrease in inventory 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1
Increase / decrease in accounts receivable 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.9 11.8 -10.3 -10.3
Increase / decrease in accounts payable 0.0 0.0 0.0 -29.2 -16.0 9.8 9.4
Increase / decrease in other working capital positions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Increase / decrease in working capital (total) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8.1 -4.2 -0.5 -1.0
Net cash provided by operating activities [1] 0.0 -14.9 -17.9 -14.2 -15.2 -6.0 2.5
Investments in intangible assets 0.0 0.0 -5.5 -4.3 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0
Investments in property, plant and equipment 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Payments for acquisitions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Financial investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Income from asset disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net cash provided by investing activities [2] 0.0 0.0 -5.5 -4.3 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0
Change in financial liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 7.9 5.0 0.0
Dividends paid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Purchase of own shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capital measures 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net cash provided by financing activities [3] 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 7.9 5.0 0.0
Change in liquid funds [1]+[2]+[3] 0.0 -14.9 -23.4 -12.9 -11.3 -4.5 -0.5
Effects of exchange-rate changes on cash 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash and cash equivalent at end of period 0.0 -14.9 -23.4 12.1 6.2 1.7 1.2
Financial Ratios 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e
Cash Flow
FCF 0.0 -14.9 -23.4 -18.5 -19.2 -9.5 -0.5
Free Cash Flow / Sales n.a. -11.6 % -10.7 % -8.1 % -12.8 % -4.8 % -0.2 %
Free Cash Flow Potential 0.0 -7.3 -3.1 3.9 1.5 6.5 15.5
Free Cash Flow / Net Profit n.a. -11.7 % 78.3 % 18.2 % 80.0 % 61.3 % 7.7 %
Interest Received / Avg. Cash n.a. n.a. 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Interest Paid / Avg. Debt n.a. n.a. 20.1 % 6.6 % 8.0 % 7.3 % 7.2 %
Management of Funds
Investment ratio n.a. 0.0 % 2.5 % 1.9 % 2.7 % 1.8 % 1.2 %
Maint. Capex / Sales n.a. 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Capex / Dep n.a. n.a. 45.8 % 4.5 % 30.8 % 35.0 % 30.0 %
Avg. Working Capital / Sales n.a. 0.0 % -3.3 % -4.4 % -2.7 % -0.8 % -0.4 %
Trade Debtors / Trade Creditors n.a. n.a. 81.4 % 87.2 % 93.6 % 96.3 % 98.7 %
Inventory Turnover n.a. n.a. 574.5 x 1249.5 x 487.5 x 650.0 x 541.7 x
Receivables collection period (days) n.a. 0 106 68 75 75 75
Payables payment period (days) n.a. n.a. 183 112 123 120 117
Cash conversion cycle (Days) n.a. n.a. -182 -111 -122 -119 -116
CAPEX and Cash Flow in EUR m
Source: Warburg Research
Free Cash Flow Generation
Source: Warburg Research
Working Capital
Source: Warburg Research
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This research report (“investment recommendation”) was prepared by the Warburg Research GmbH, a fully owned subsidiary of the M.M.Warburg &
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The valuation underlying the investment recommendation for the company analysed here is based on generally accepted and widely used methods of
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SOURCES
All data and consensus estimates have been obtained from FactSet except where stated otherwise.
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Additional information for clients in the United States
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Reference in accordance with section 85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG) and Art. 20 MAR regarding possible conflicts of interest with companies analysed:
-1- Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, or an employee of one of these companies responsible for the compilation of the research, hold
a share of more than 5% of the equity capital of the analysed company.
-2-
Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, within the last twelve months participated in the management of a consortium for an issue in
the course of a public offering of such financial instruments, which are, or the issuer of which is, the subject of the investment
recommendation.
-3- Companies affiliated with Warburg Research manage financial instruments, which are, or the issuers of which are, subject of the
investment recommendation, in a market based on the provision of buy or sell contracts.
-4-
MMWB, Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, reached an agreement with the issuer to provide investment banking and/or
investment services and the relevant agreement was in force in the last 12 months or there arose for this period, based on the relevant
agreement, the obligation to provide or to receive a service or compensation - provided that this disclosure does not result in the disclosure of
confidential business information.
-5- The company compiling the analysis or an affiliated company had reached an agreement on the compilation of the investment
recommendation with the analysed company.
-6- Companies affiliated with Warburg Research regularly trade financial instruments of the analysed company or derivatives of these.
-6a- Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, holds a net long position of more than 0.5% of the total issued share capital of the analysed
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-6b- Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, holds a net short position of more than 0.5% of the total issued share capital of the analysed
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-6c- The issuer holds shares of more than 5% of the total issued capital of Warburg Research or an affiliated company.
-7- The company preparing the analysis as well as its affiliated companies and employees have other important interests in relation to the
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Company Disclosure Link to the historical price targets and rating changes (last 12 months)
Fyber 5 http://www.mmwarburg.com/disclaimer/disclaimer_en/NL0012377394.htm
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INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION
Investment recommendation: expected direction of the share price development of the financial instrument up to the given price target in the opinion of
the analyst who covers this financial instrument.
-B- Buy: The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to rise over the next 12 months.
-H- Hold: The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to remain mostly flat over the next 12
months.
-S- Sell: The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to fall over the next 12 months.
“-“ Rating suspended: The available information currently does not permit an evaluation of the company.
WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – ANALYSED RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING
Rating Number of stocks % of Universe
Buy 112 54
Hold 90 44
Sell 4 2
Rating suspended 0 0
Total 206 100
WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – ANALYSED RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING K
K taking into account only those companies which were provided with major investment services in the last twelve months.
Rating Number of stocks % of Universe
Buy 32 68
Hold 15 32
Sell 0 0
Rating suspended 0 0
Total 47 100
PRICE AND RATING HISTORY FYBER AS OF 31.08.2018
Markings in the chart show rating changes by Warburg Research
GmbH in the last 12 months. Every marking details the date and
closing price on the day of the rating change.
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