h.n. wang key laboratory of solar activity national astronomical observatory chinese academy of...
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H.N. WangH.N. Wang
Key Laboratory of Solar ActivityKey Laboratory of Solar Activity
National Astronomical ObservatoryNational Astronomical Observatory
Chinese Academy of SciencesChinese Academy of Sciences
SDO data for solar activity forecastsSDO data for solar activity forecasts
Although missions such as SOHO and TRACE have taught us much about the solar influences on space weather, we still do not fully understand all sources of space weather nor can we reliably predict energetic particle eruptions or solar wind variations. Likewise, although we have learned much about the structure and dynamics of the solar interior and the evolution of active region magnetic fields, we still don't understand the solar dynamo and can't reliably predict the size of the next solar cycle or the emergence of the next active region. ---http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
Outline Outline
1. Characteristics of SDO data 1. Characteristics of SDO data
2. Requirements from forecasting 2. Requirements from forecasting operationoperation
3. SDO data and space weather3. SDO data and space weather
1.1. Characteristics of SDO dataCharacteristics of SDO data
• Multipl wave ranges • High spatial, temporal and spectral resolution• Image and spectrum• Physical parameters derived from observational
data: Intensity field, velocity field, magnetic field
temperature,density, electric current,……
wave bands10:EUV, UV,WL
wave range 0.1nm-105nm
central cave length: 617.3 nm FeI
spatial res.: 1.5”cadence: 10sFOV: >full disk
spectral res.: wave range depandence cadence: 10s
spatial res.: ~1”time intervel:Doppler and LOS field 45s
Vector field 135s
FOV: >full disk
image spectrum image
94A 131A 171A
193A 211A
304A 335A 1600A
WH-4500A6173A
1-70A SAM rotation image
Soft X-ray –EUV spectrumCourtesy EVE Team
Vector magnetic fieldCourtesy HMI Team and K. Hayashi
LOS magnetic fieldCourtesy HMI Team and Y. Liu
2. Requirements 2. Requirements from forecasting operationfrom forecasting operation
• Long & mid-term forecasting
(longer than 3days)
Daily or monthly fluctuations are smoothed
• Short-term forecasting
(shorter than 3days) and nowcasting SDO data with multipl wave ranges,high
spatial, temporal and spectral resolution will provide precursors of solar eruptions.
• Forecasting model
Accumulated data are very helpful
HMI data provide key parameters for solar dynamo model.
HMI data can be used for detecting sunspot dynamics and solar far-side active regions.
EVE data describe solar EUV irradiance variations due to solar rotation (days), and solar cycle (years).
2.1 Long & mid-term forecasting
Long & mid-term forecasting
Multipl wave ranges =multipl layers in solar atmosphere
2.2 Short-term forecasting and nowcasting
High spatial&temporal resolution = high quolity movies of multipal layers
evolutions of solar magnetic parameters (flux, gradient, current dengsity, magnetic ¤t helicity,…)
Short-term forecasting and nowcasting
Courtesy HMI Team and Y. Liu
Short-term forecasting and nowcasting
High spectral&temporal resolution =EUV irradiance variations due to solar flares.
May 7, 2010; C2.0 – Long (courtesy: Chamberlin)
May 7, 2010; C2.0 – Long (courtesy: Chamberlin)
We believe that SDO data will play important role in modeling for solar activity forecast.
Previous space and gruand based observational data have been widely used in forecasting model. A part of models is prensented here.
2.3 Forecasting model
活动区磁场等效距离参数 :
Ed = (Rn+Rs)/Rns
= 2.0969
Guo J., Chumak O. et al., 2005, 2006
(Xs,Ys)Rns
Rs
(Xn,Yn)
Rn
Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Magnetograms
Length of strong-gradient main Neutral Line:a measures of active region complexity that is promising as a predictor of CMEs Falconer, et al, 2002, 2003, 2006
Horizontal gradient
Length of neotal line Number of singgular point
1unit =1 pixel
AR 9574AR 9574 (( 8/11/2008/11/20011))
Magnetic complexity of photospheric fieldMagnetic complexity of photospheric field
HSOS HSOS magnetogrammagnetogram
Cui et al, 2006, 2007Cui et al, 2006, 2007
Solar flare productivity and magnetic measuresSolar flare productivity and magnetic measuressamples: 1997-2004, number >23,000samples: 1997-2004, number >23,000(( Cui, Y. M. et al , 2006; Wang, H. N. et al, 2009Cui, Y. M. et al , 2006; Wang, H. N. et al, 2009 ))
Maximun of horizontal gradient Maximun of horizontal gradient
Number of singular pointsNumber of singular pointsLength of neotral linesLength of neotral lines
Testing samples
Physical parameters
Magnetic complexity
Training samples
Physical parameters
Magnetic complexity
Artificial intelligence Training model
Test
Results
Modeling with artificial intelligence (NAOC)Li, R. et al, 2007; Wang, H. N., 2008, Yu, D. R., et al, 2009, 2010Li, R. et al, 2007; Wang, H. N., 2008, Yu, D. R., et al, 2009, 2010
Model testing resultsfor M flares in 2001
>=M
corr
ecti
onra
te
<M c
orre
ctio
nra
te
miss
ing
rate
fals
e ra
te
0. 00%
20. 00%
40. 00%
60. 00%
80. 00%
100. 00%
>=M correcti on rate
<M correcti on rate
mi ssi ng rate
fal se rate
Model testing resultsfor SEPs in 2004
SEP
corr
ecti
onra
te
Non-
SEP
corr
ecti
onra
te
miss
ing
rate
fals
e ra
te
0. 00%
20. 00%
40. 00%
60. 00%
80. 00%
100. 00%
SEP correcti on rate
Non-SEP correcti on rate
mi ssi ng rate
fal se rate
Kusano et al., 2008
Precursors of solar eruptions from theoretical modelsPrecursors of solar eruptions from theoretical models
Lin & Forbes 2000
Precursors of solar eruptionsPrecursors of solar eruptions
Photosphere:Photosphere: Morphology of magnetic fieldMorphology of magnetic field (magnetic types, neotral lines, singgular (magnetic types, neotral lines, singgular points)points)
Non-potentiality of magnetic field (shear, Non-potentiality of magnetic field (shear, strong gradient, magnetic & current helicity) strong gradient, magnetic & current helicity)
Evolution of magnetic fieldEvolution of magnetic field (flux emerging & cancellation, shear and twist (flux emerging & cancellation, shear and twist motion )motion )
Chromoshere and coronaChromoshere and corona Filaments, filament oscillation, repetitive Filaments, filament oscillation, repetitive surges, cavities, sigmoidssurges, cavities, sigmoids
Chen, P. f., et al. 2008Chen, P. f., et al. 2008
Prominences and cavity Prominences and cavity
MLSO MLSO
SXT/YohkohSXT/Yohkoh XRT/HinodeXRT/Hinode
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/canfield/sigmoids.shtmlhttp://solar.physics.montana.edu/canfield/sigmoids.shtmlhttp://solar.physics.montana.edu/press/XRT_Sigmoid.htmlhttp://solar.physics.montana.edu/press/XRT_Sigmoid.html
PhotospherePhotosphere Chromoshere Chromoshere and coronaand corona
free energy free energy buildingbuilding
magnetic types, magnetic types, neotral lines, neotral lines, singgular pointssinggular points
shear, strong shear, strong gradient, magnetic & gradient, magnetic & current helicity, current helicity,
filaments,filaments,
sigmoids,sigmoids,
cavities,…cavities,…
What’s new from What’s new from SDO Data?SDO Data?
eruption eruption triggeringtriggering
flux emerging & flux emerging & cancellation, shear cancellation, shear and twist motion,and twist motion,
sunspot dynamics,…sunspot dynamics,…
Filament oscillation, Filament oscillation, repetitive surges, …repetitive surges, …
What’s new from What’s new from SDO Data?SDO Data?
Precursors of solar eruptionsPrecursors of solar eruptions
3. SDO and space weather3. SDO and space weather
Convection-zone dynamics and solar dynamo origin and evolution of sunspots, active regions and complexes of activity (HMI);
Sources and drivers of solar activity and disturbances(HMI);
Links between the internal processes and dynamics of the corona and heliosphere(HMI,AIA,EVE);
The irradiance of the Sun that produces the ionosphere (AIA,EVE);
The sources of radiation and how they evolve. (EVE ,AIA);
Precursors of solar disturbances for space-weather forecasts(HMI,AIA,EVE).
SDO data and space weatherSolar Dynamo
Global Circulation
Irradiance Sources
Far-side Imaging
Solar Subsurface Weather
Coronal Magnetic Field
Magnetic Connectivity
Sunspot Dynamics
Magnetic Stresses
Interior Structure
NOAA 9393
Far-side
Courtesy HMI Team and Y. Liu
HMI+AIA+EVE
HMI+AIA+EVE
HMI
HMI
HMI
HMI
HMI
HMI
HMI
Thanks !Thanks !