hive-mind solutions in the era of accelerating …
TRANSCRIPT
Root Cause Analysis
ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS
HIVE-MIND SOLUTIONS IN THE ERA OF ACCELERATING COMPLEXITY
Brian HughesSr. Vice President, Co-Founder
Email: [email protected]
• “We need a ‘problem-solving’ spine!”
• “There are too many problems!”
• “How can we solve problems faster?”
• “Can you just do it for us?”
THE PROBLEM
AGENDA
• Complexity – I’m not sure we get it...
• The impact on Problem Burden
• Problem-solving today
• “Hive-Mind” Solutions
• The pathway forward
• If I am walking at 1 mph...
• And I accelerate at 0.5% per second
• How fast will I be walking at the end of this presentation?
• http://d151izpvtti2fp.cloudfront.net/
EXTRA CREDIT
COMPLEXITY
• The world is the most complex at this very minute!
–Oh, except now it’s even more complex
–But how much more?
• Why does it matter (particularly to this group)?
COMPLEXITY
• Technology is increasing exponentially
–It always has been, but we don’t notice it
–Historically, year over year growth has still been slow
–We perceive growth as linear
• Technology = Complexity
• Ergo, complexity is increasing exponentially
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
Vehicle Complexity
How We Perceive Progress
• The 20th century was gradually speeding up
• Its achievements were equivalent to 20 years progress at year 2000 rates
• We won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century, but 20,000 years
21ST CENTURY PROGRESS
• In a lake, there is a patch of lily pads.
• Every day, the patch doubles in size.
• If it takes 48 days for the patch to cover the entire lake, how long would it take for the patch to cover half of the lake?
QUIZ
Wheel Invented
(5200 BC)
Wheel + Axle
(4200 BC)
Wheeled Cart
(3500 BC)
Spoked Wheel
(2000 BC)
Mercedes Benz Motorw agen
(1885 AD)
Model T
(1912 AD)
Production Line Manufacturing
(1901 AD)
Tesla Model 3
(2018 AD)
Tesla Model S
(2012 AD)
Toyota Corolla
(1980 AD)
Toyota Prius
(2000 AD)
Volksw agen Beetle
(1932 AD)
Volvo – No More Combustion
(2020 AD)
Celtic Chariots w ith Iron Rims
(1000 BC)
Fardier à vapeur
(1771 AD)
GM EV1
(1990 AD)
Honda Insight
(1999 AD)
AMC Gremlin
(1970 AD)
No more driving!
(2025 AD)
Vehicle Complexity
How it actually worked...
If the history of the vehicle equates to an hour, all significant progress has taken place
in about the final minute...
Or has it?
• Moore’s Law
–“The speed of processing doubles every two years”
• This is no longer true due to architectural and power limitations
• However...
–Opportunities in Software & Hardware to continue the growth in output!
LIMITATIONS?
THE RISE OF ROBOTICS AND CO-BOTICS
•Manufacturing
• Inventory Management
•Surgery
•Transportation
•Military
• Search Engines
• Maps
• Social Media
• Advertising
• Government
• Medicine
• Structured Problem Solving
THE RISE OF AI
Dave Bowman : “Open the pod bay doors, HAL”.
HAL : “I'm sorry, Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that.”
• We stand on the shoulders of those who came before us
BUT HOW CAN IT BE?
Pro
du
cti
vit
y / E
ffo
rt
Lower
Higher
Skill-Based Growth
Rule-Based Growth
Knowledge-Based Growth
PROFICIENCY GROWTH
Time
• Individuals
• Teams
• Organizations
• Societies
• Humanity
BUILDING ON LAYERS
• Time is absolute, individuals are not
• Our starting point is relative–Those starting later begin where others leave off!
–To whom much is given...
• Every new plateau is temporary
• A paradigm shift occurs, order increases, and growth continues...exponentially
PROFICIENCY
Complexity is increasing exponentially.
It impacts every one of us.
IMPACT ON PROBLEM BURDEN
• Problem Burden: The total impact of all problems in an organization at any point in time.
–Also includes a “blue sky” burden value – the value of future problems (risk)
PROBLEM BURDEN
DIFFERENT LEVELS# o
f P
rob
lem
s
Greater
Fewer
Severi
ty
/ C
om
ple
xit
y
Lower
Higher
• Problems are increasingly novel
• Problems are increasingly complicated
• There are increasingly more problems
• They happen more frequently
• Our old paradigm won’t work!
CHANGES TO PROBLEM BURDEN
HIVE-MIND SOLUTIONS
• Requirements and solutions evolve through the collaborative effort of self-organizing and cross-functional teams and their end users.
• Advocates adaptive planning, evolutionary development, early delivery, and continual improvement, and it encourages rapid and flexible response to change.
AGILE SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT
• Shifts the focus to analyzing precursors
• Recognizes human errors as opportunities
• Leverages diversity of thought
• Recognizes the power of constants
• Understands the exponential nature of growth
• Embraces shifts in paradigms
AGILE PROBLEM SOLVING
Commander Locke:
“Dammit Morpheus, not everyone believes
what you believe!”
Morpheus:
“My beliefs do not require them to.”
• We all have a unique individual perspective
–None of us has a complete picture
• Teams require diversity to cover more ground, faster, and with greater accuracy
DIVERSITY
PROBLEM DOMAIN
1 + 1 = 3
• Facilitator
• Participants
• Intelligence of the ”Hive”
• Division of labor
• More of the information is available
• Helps quickly resolve differences of opinion
• Diverse minds triangulating on the problem
BENEFITS OF TEAMS
• Technology
• Next generation workers
• Paradigm shift
OPPORTUNITIES FOR (ALL OF) US
Situation Appraisal
Problem Analysis
Event Mapping
Decision Analysis
Potential Problem Analysis
Potential Opportunity
Analysis
KT Sologic
• Provide exactly what the client needs
• Limited market overlap• Collaborate vs. Compete 1 + 1 = 3• Each is compensated based on work
• Each promotes the other’s complimentary products and services • Share common marketing collateral, messaging
• Promote each other as a way to provide each client with what they need to be successful
Full-Service Consulting
Causelink
Incident Investigation
• Resiliency Engineering
• Safety 2
• Highly Reliable Organization (HRO)
• Human Performance (HPI)
• Root Cause Analysis (RCA)
• Trending
PARADIGM SHIFT = HIVE-MIND
Pro
du
cti
vit
y / E
ffo
rt
Lower
Higher
Skill-Based Growth
Rule-Based Growth
Knowledge-Based Growth
PROFICIENCY GROWTH – SPS
Time
• Individuals
• Teams
• Organizations
• HPRCT
• Process
–Increase complexity
–Increase order
• User
–Increase simplicity
–Increase utility
BY WORKING TOGETHER
Pro
du
cti
vit
y / E
ffo
rt
Lower
Higher
PROFICIENCY GROWTH TO MATCH COMPLEXITY
Time
• Hey dummy, check your speed calculator!
(PRIVATE TO BRIAN)
