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1 Historical Distribution of US Large Cap Market’s Daily Returns In US dollars. US Large Cap is the S&P 500 Index. S&P data © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. The information shown here is derived from the index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Daily Total Returns: January 1990December 2019 Gray lines show two standard deviations from mean (-2.15%, 2.24%), which is a statistical measurement of historical volatility that represents 95% of all outcomes. A volatile stock tends to have a higher standard deviation from the mean. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Frequency Proportion of daily returns below: -10%: 0.00% -7%: 0.05% -5%: 0.20% -3%: 1.03% Proportion of daily returns above: 10%: 0.03% 7%: 0.04% 5%: 0.19% 3%: 0.99%

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Page 1: Historical Distribution of US Large Cap Market’s Daily Returns · Distribution of US Market Returns 3 In US dollars. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices,

1

Historical Distribution of US Large Cap Market’s Daily Returns

In US dollars.

US Large Cap is the S&P 500 Index. S&P data © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. The information shown here is derived from the index.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of

an actual portfolio. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money.

Daily Total Returns: January 1990–December 2019

Gray lines show two standard deviations from mean (-2.15%, 2.24%), which is a statistical measurement of historical volatility that represents 95% of all outcomes.

A volatile stock tends to have a higher standard deviation from the mean.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

-10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

Fre

qu

en

cy

Proportion of daily returns below:

-10%: 0.00%

-7%: 0.05%

-5%: 0.20%

-3%: 1.03%

Proportion of daily returns above:

10%: 0.03%

7%: 0.04%

5%: 0.19%

3%: 0.99%

Page 2: Historical Distribution of US Large Cap Market’s Daily Returns · Distribution of US Market Returns 3 In US dollars. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices,

A History of Market Ups and Downs

2

Chart end date is 12/31/2019, the last trough to peak return of 451% represents the return through December 2019.

Bear markets are defined as downturns of 20% of greater from new index highs. Bull markets are subsequent rises following the bear market trough through the next new market high. The chart shows bear markets and bull markets, the

number of months they lasted and the associated cumulative performance for each market period. Results for different time periods could differ from the results shown.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.

Source: S&P data © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.

S&P 500 Index total returns in USD, January 1926–December 2019

#65206_0618

Using a 20% threshold for downturns

1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

S&

P 5

00

In

de

x T

ota

l R

etu

rn (

Lo

ga

rith

mic

Sca

le)

0%

-1%

1,000%

-100%

Bull Market

Bear Market

193%

44 months

-83%

34 months

-22%

6 months

815%

167 months

-22%

6 months

936%

181 months

144%

77 months

-29%

19 months

76%

30 months

844%

155 months

-43%

21 months

-45%

25 months

-30%

3 months-51%

16 months

815%

153 months

108%

61 months

451%

130 months

Page 3: Historical Distribution of US Large Cap Market’s Daily Returns · Distribution of US Market Returns 3 In US dollars. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices,

Distribution of US Market Returns

3

In US dollars. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. The CRSP 1−10 Index measures the performance of the total US stock market, which it defines as the aggregate capitalization of all

securities listed on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ exchanges. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

CRSP 1–10 Index returns by year

1926–20191949

20.2

1951

20.7

1963

21.0

1993

11.1

1982

21.0

1970

0.0

2014

11.6

2017

21.1

Positive Years: 70 74%1953

0.7

2004

12.0

1996

21.4

Negative Years: 24 26%2011

0.8

1959

12.7

1944

21.5

1960

1.2

1952

13.4

1983

22.0

2019

30.4

1987

1.7

2016

13.6

1979

22.6

1997

31.4

1948

2.1

1968

14.1

1998

24.3

2003

31.6

1966

-8.7

1939

2.8

1965

14.5

1955

25.2

1985

32.2

1932

-8.6

1947

3.6

2006

15.5

1999

25.2

1936

32.3

1973

-18.1

1940

-7.1

1934

4.1

1942

16.1

1976

26.8

1980

32.8

1929

-15.2

1946

-6.2

1984

4.5

1964

16.1

1961

26.9

1927

33.5

2000

-11.4

1990

-6.0

2007

5.8

1971

16.1

1938

28.2

1991

34.7

2001

-11.1

2018

-5.0

2005

6.2

2012

16.2

1943

28.4

2013

35.2

1969

-10.9

1977

-4.3

1978

7.5

1986

16.2

1967

28.7

1995

36.8

1930

-28.8

1962

-10.2

1981

-3.6

1956

8.3

1972

16.8

2009

28.8

1928

38.4

1935

44.4

2008

-36.7

1974

-27.0

1941

-10.1

2015

-0.5

1926

8.4

2010

17.7

1989

28.9

1945

38.5

1958

45.0

1931

-43.5

1937

-34.7

2002

-21.1

1957

-10.0

1994

-0.1

1992

9.8

1988

18.0

1950

29.6

1975

38.8

1954

50.0

1933

56.7-50% to -40% -40% to -30% -30% to -20% -20% to -10% -10% to 0% 0% to 10% 10% to 20% 20% to 30% 30% to 40% 40% to 50% 50% to 60%

Annual Return Range

Page 4: Historical Distribution of US Large Cap Market’s Daily Returns · Distribution of US Market Returns 3 In US dollars. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices,

Reacting Can Hurt Performance

4

Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

In US dollars. For illustrative purposes. The missed best day(s) examples assume that the hypothetical portfolio fully divested its holdings at the end of the day before the missed best day(s), held cash for the missed best day(s), and

reinvested the entire portfolio in the S&P 500 at the end of the missed best day(s). Annualized returns for the missed best day(s) were calculated by substituting actual returns for the missed best day(s) with zero.

S&P data © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. “One-Month US T- Bills” is the IA SBBI US 30 Day TBill TR USD, provided by Ibbotson Associates via Morningstar Direct. Data is calculated off

rounded daily index values.

Performance of the S&P 500 Index, 1990–2019

Missing only a few days

of strong returns can

drastically impact

overall performance.

Total

Period

Missed

1 Best

Day

Missed

5 Best

Single

Days

Missed

15 Best

Single

Days

Missed

25 Best

Single

Days

One-

Month

US T-Bills

Annualized

Compound Return 9.96% 9.56% 8.47% 6.56% 4.99% 2.72%

$17,273

$15,480

$11,459

$6,733

$4,314

$2,235

Gro

wth

of

$1,0

00

Page 5: Historical Distribution of US Large Cap Market’s Daily Returns · Distribution of US Market Returns 3 In US dollars. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices,

The Capital Markets Have Rewarded

Long-Term Investors

5

In US dollars.

US Small Cap Index is the CRSP 6–10 Index; US Large Cap Index is the S&P 500 Index; Long-Term Government Bonds Index is 20-year US government bonds; Treasury Bills are One-Month US Treasury bills; 1-Month Treasury Bills

Index is the IA SBBI US 30 Day TBill TR USD. Treasury Index data sourced from Ibbotson Associates, via Morningstar. Direct Inflation is the Consumer Price Index. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, S&P

data © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Bonds, T-bills, and inflation data provided by Morningstar.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.

Monthly growth of wealth ($1), 1926–2019

$0

$1

$10

$100

$1,000

$10,000

$100,000

1926 1936 1946 1957 1967 1978 1988 1998 2009 2019

$25,617 US Small Cap Index

$9,237 US Large Cap Index

$175 Long-Term

Govt. Bonds Index

$22 Treasury Bills

$14 Inflation (CPI)

Page 6: Historical Distribution of US Large Cap Market’s Daily Returns · Distribution of US Market Returns 3 In US dollars. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices,

Many Investors Follow Their Emotions

6

People may struggle to separate their emotions

from their investment decisions.

Following a reactive cycle of excessive optimism and

fear may lead to poor decisions at the worst times.

NervousnessOptimism

Fear

Elation

Optimism

Page 7: Historical Distribution of US Large Cap Market’s Daily Returns · Distribution of US Market Returns 3 In US dollars. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices,
Page 8: Historical Distribution of US Large Cap Market’s Daily Returns · Distribution of US Market Returns 3 In US dollars. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices,
Page 9: Historical Distribution of US Large Cap Market’s Daily Returns · Distribution of US Market Returns 3 In US dollars. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices,

Focus on What You Can Control

9Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.

Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. This is for informational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or tax advice. Talk to your financial advisor prior to making an investment decision.

A financial advisor can offer

expertise and guidance to

help you focus on actions that add

value. This can lead to a better

investment experience.

• Create an investment plan to fit

your needs and risk tolerance.

• Structure a portfolio along the

dimensions of expected returns.

• Diversify globally.

• Manage expenses, turnover, and taxes.

• Stay disciplined through market dips

and swings.

Page 10: Historical Distribution of US Large Cap Market’s Daily Returns · Distribution of US Market Returns 3 In US dollars. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices,

Appendix

Page 11: Historical Distribution of US Large Cap Market’s Daily Returns · Distribution of US Market Returns 3 In US dollars. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices,

Balanced Strategy Disclosure and Index Descriptions

11

Information provided by Dimensional Fund Advisors LP.

The Dimensional Indices have been retrospectively calculated by Dimensional Fund Advisors LP and did not exist prior to their index inceptions dates. Accordingly, results shown during the periods prior to each Index’s index inception date do

not represent actual returns of the Index. Other periods selected may have different results, including losses. The model’s performance does not reflect advisory fees or other expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.

There are limitations inherent in model allocations. In particular, model performance may not reflect the impact that economic and market factors may have had on the advisor’s decision making if the advisor were actually managing client

money. The balanced strategies are not recommendations for an actual allocation.

Dimensional US Large Cap Value Index is compiled by Dimensional from CRSP

and Compustat data. The index targets securities of US companies traded on the

NYSE, NYSE MKT (formerly AMEX), and Nasdaq Global Market with market

capitalizations above the 1,000th-largest company whose relative price is in the

bottom 30% of the Dimensional US Large Cap Index after the exclusion of utilities,

companies lacking financial data, and companies with negative relative price. The

index emphasizes securities with higher profitability, lower relative price, and lower

market capitalization. Profitability is measured as operating income before

depreciation and amortization minus interest expense scaled by book. Exclusions:

non-US companies, REITs, UITs, and investment companies. The index has been

retroactively calculated by Dimensional and did not exist prior to March 2007. The

calculation methodology was amended in January 2014 to include profitability as a

factor in selecting securities for inclusion in the index.

Dimensional US Small Cap Index is compiled by Dimensional from CRSP and

Compustat data. Targets securities of US companies traded on the NYSE, NYSE

MKT (formerly AMEX), and Nasdaq Global Market whose market capitalization falls in

the lowest 8% of the total market capitalization of the eligible market. The index

emphasizes companies with higher profitability. The index also excludes those

companies with the highest asset growth within the small cap universe. Profitability is

measured as operating income before depreciation and amortization minus interest

expense scaled by book. Exclusions: non-US companies, REITs, UITs, and

investment companies. The index has been retroactively calculated by Dimensional

Fund Advisors and did not exist prior to March 2007. The calculation methodology

was amended in January 2014 to include profitability as a factor in selecting securities

for inclusion in the index.

Dimensional US Small Cap Value Index is compiled by Dimensional from CRSP

and Compustat data. Targets securities of US companies traded on the NYSE, NYSE

MKT (formerly AMEX), and Nasdaq Global Market whose relative price is in the

bottom 35% of the Dimensional US Small Cap Index after the exclusion of utilities,

companies lacking financial data, and companies with negative relative price. The

index emphasizes securities Sources and Descriptions of Data with higher profitability,

lower relative price, and lower market capitalization. The index also excludes those

companies with the highest asset growth within the small cap universe. Profitability is

measured as operating income before depreciation and amortization minus interest

expense scaled by book. Exclusions: non-US companies, REITs, UITs, and

investment companies. The index has been retroactively calculated by Dimensional

and did not exist prior to March 2007. The calculation methodology for the

Dimensional US Small Cap Value Index was amended in January 2014 to include

direct profitability as a factor in selecting securities for inclusion in the index.

Dimensional International Marketwide Value Index is compiled by Dimensional

from Bloomberg securities data. The index consists of companies whose relative price

is in the bottom 33% of their country’s companies after the exclusion of utilities and

companies with either negative or missing relative price data. The index emphasizes

companies with smaller capitalization, lower relative price, and higher profitability. The

index excludes those companies with the lowest profitability and highest relative price

within their country’s small value universe. The index also excludes those companies

with the highest asset growth within their country’s small cap universe. Profitability is

measured as operating income before depreciation and amortization minus interest

expense scaled by book. Exclusions: REITs and investment companies. The index

has been retroactively calculated by Dimensional and did not exist prior to April 2008.

The calculation methodology for the Dimensional International Marketwide Value

Index was amended in January 2014 to include direct profitability as a factor in

selecting securities for inclusion in the index.

There is no guarantee investment strategies will be successful. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal.

The model's performance does not reflect advisory fees or other expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. There are limitations inherent in model

allocations. In particular, model performance may not reflect the impact that economic and market factors may have had on the advisor's decision making if the advisor were

actually managing client money. The balanced strategies are not recommendations for an actual allocation.

International Value represented by Fama/French International Value Index for 1975–1993. Emerging Markets represented by MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross dividends)

for 1988–1993. Emerging Markets weighting allocated evenly between International Small Cap and International Value prior to January 1988 data inception. Emerging Markets

Small Cap represented by Fama/French Emerging Markets Small Cap Index for 1989–1993. Emerging Markets Value and Small Cap weighting allocated evenly between

International Small Cap and International Value prior to January 1989 data inception. Two-Year Global weighting allocated to One-Year prior to January 1990 data inception.

Five-Year Global weighting allocated to Five-Year Government prior to January 1990 data inception.

Page 12: Historical Distribution of US Large Cap Market’s Daily Returns · Distribution of US Market Returns 3 In US dollars. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices,

Balanced Strategy Disclosure and Index Descriptions

12

Information provided by Dimensional Fund Advisors LP.

The Dimensional Indices have been retrospectively calculated by Dimensional Fund Advisors LP and did not exist prior to their index inceptions dates. Accordingly, results shown during the periods prior to each Index’s index inception date do

not represent actual returns of the Index. Other periods selected may have different results, including losses. The model’s performance does not reflect advisory fees or other expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.

There are limitations inherent in model allocations. In particular, model performance may not reflect the impact that economic and market factors may have had on the advisor’s decision making if the advisor were actually managing client

money. The balanced strategies are not recommendations for an actual allocation.

Dimensional International Small Cap Index (January 1990–present): The index is

compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg securities data. Market-capitalization-

weighted index of small company securities in the eligible markets excluding those with

the lowest profitability and highest relative price within their countries small cap

universe. The index also excludes those companies with the highest asset growth

within their country’s small cap universe. Profitability is measured as operating income

before depreciation and amortization minus interest expense scaled by book.

Exclusions: REITs and investment companies. The index has been retroactively

calculated by Dimensional and did not exist prior to April 2008. The calculation

methodology for the Dimensional International Small Cap Index was amended in

January 2014 to include direct profitability as a factor in selecting securities for

inclusion in the index. July 1981–1989: Created by Dimensional, the index includes

securities of MSCI EAFE countries in the bottom 10% of market capitalization

excluding the bottom 1%. All securities are market capitalization weighted. Each

country is capped at 50%; rebalanced semiannually.

Dimensional International Small Cap Value Index (January 1990–present): The

index is defined as companies whose relative price is in the bottom 35% of their

country’s respective constituents in the Dimensional International Small Cap Index

after the exclusion of utilities and companies with either negative or missing relative

price data. The index excludes those companies with the lowest profitability within their

country’s small value universe. The index also excludes those companies with the

highest asset growth within their country’s small cap universe. Profitability is measured

as operating income before depreciation and amortization minus interest expense

scaled by book. Exclusions: REITs and investment companies. The index has been

retroactively calculated by Dimensional and did not exist prior to April 2008. The

calculation methodology for the Dimensional International Small Cap Value Index was

amended in January 2014 to include direct profitability as a factor in selecting

securities for inclusion in the index. Prior to January 1990: Created by Dimensional,

the index includes securities of MSCI EAFE countries in the top 30% of book-to-market

by market capitalization conditional on the securities being in the bottom 10% of

market capitalization, excluding the bottom 1%. All securities are market-capitalization

weighted. Each country is capped at 50%; rebalanced semiannually.

Dimensional Emerging Markets Index is compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg

securities data. Market-capitalization-weighted index of all securities in the eligible

markets. The index has been retroactively calculated by Dimensional and did not exist

prior to April 2008. Exclusions: REITs and Investment Companies.

Dimensional Emerging Markets Small Cap Index (January 1994–present): The

index is compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg securities data. The index is a

market-capitalization-weighted index of small company securities in the eligible

markets excluding those with the lowest profitability and highest relative price within

the small cap universe. The index also excludes those companies with the highest

asset growth within their country’s small cap universe. Profitability is measured as

operating income before depreciation and amortization minus interest expense scaled

by book. Exclusions: REITs and investment companies. The index has been

retroactively calculated by Dimensional and did not exist prior to April 2008. The

calculation methodology for the Dimensional Emerging Markets Small Index was

amended in January 2014 to include profitability as a factor in selecting securities for

inclusion in the index. Prior to January 1994: Fama/French Emerging Markets Small

Cap Index.

Dimensional Emerging Markets Value Index (January 1994–present): The index is

compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg securities data. The index consists of

companies whose relative price is in the bottom 33% of their country’s companies after

the exclusion of utilities and companies with either negative or missing relative price

data. The index emphasizes companies with smaller capitalization, lower relative price,

and higher profitability. The index excludes those companies with the lowest

profitability and highest relative price within their country’s value universe. The index

also excludes those companies with the highest asset growth within their country’s

small cap universe. Profitability is measured as operating income before depreciation

and amortization minus interest expense scaled by book. Exclusions: REITs and

investment companies. The index has been retroactively calculated by Dimensional

and did not exist prior to April 2008. The calculation methodology for the Dimensional

Emerging Markets Value Index was amended in January 2014 to include profitability

as a factor in selecting securities for inclusion in the index. Prior to January 1994:

Fama/French Emerging Markets Value Index.