historic contexts of past disasters - unicaen · earthquake pakistan / india hurricanes ... atlas...

Materials provided for the Mountain-Risk Workshop„Risk Governance and Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment“Kempten, 15th – 22nd June 2008

Intensive Course – „Mountain risks and risk governance“

NOTIFICATION:The provided material is only and exclusively for your ownprivate use. Due to copyright, ANY distribution and consequent usage is STRICTLY prohibited.

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MOUNTAIN RISKS: Intensive Workshop Kempten, June 19th – 22nd, 2008

Risk Governance and Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment

Geomorphic Systems& Risk Reserach

IRPUDInstitute of Spatial Planning

HistoricHistoric contextscontexts of of pastpast disastersdisasters

Thomas Glade & Cees van WestenUniversity of Vienna & ITC

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DisastersDisasters, , oneone afterafter thethe otherother ……

Earthquake Pakistan / IndiaHurricanes Central AmericaHurricane Katrina

Flooding Central Europe

Tsunami AsiaFlooding India

Cyclone Vietnam

Earthquake ChinaBurma……

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DisastersDisasters, , oneone afterafter thethe otherother ……A serious disruption of the functioning of a community

or a society causing widespread human,

material, economic or environmental losses which

exceed the ability of the affected community or

society to cope using its own resources.

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DisastersDisasters areare spatialspatial featuresfeatures

Source:http://www.munichre.com/en/ts/geo_risks/natural_catastrophes_and_risks/world_map_of_natural_hazards/default.aspx

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DisastersDisasters areare spatialspatial featuresfeatures

Source:http://www.munichre.com/en/ts/geo_risks/natural_catastrophes_and_risks/world_map_of_natural_hazards/default.aspx

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DisastersDisasters 2005 2005 (Munich RE)(Munich RE)




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DisastersDisasters 2006 2006 (Munich RE)(Munich RE)

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DisastersDisasters & & developmentdevelopment

IsIs therethere a a relationrelation??

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Relation Relation DevelopmentDevelopment / / LossesLossesM

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DisastersDisasters cancan bebe ……

… at different magnitude:– When does a natural event becomes a disaster?

… at different scales– Individual-family-community-municipality…. World?

… fast or slow– Is desertification a disaster? Is water pollution a disaster?

… predictable or unexpected– Recent disasters in Netherlands: firework explosion, café

fire, airplane crash, animal diseases, flooding

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DisasterDisaster typestypesHazards are purely natural

Hazards are purely man-made

Different spatial extend, magnitude, frequency, cause, impact

• Extraterrestrial – asteroid impact

• Internal Geo-dynamic processes– Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption

• External geodynamic processes– Landslide, soil erosion, land degradation

• Hydrometeorological– Floods, Tropical storms, drought

• Ecological / environmental– Pollution, crop disease

• Epidemics– SARS, HIV / AIDS, Avian Flu

• Technological– (Industrial) accidents

• Conflicts– War, land mines, terrorism

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DisasterDisaster typestypes

Only a small component of overall risks




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IRPUDInstitute of Spatial PlanningUNEP (2005): One planet many people: atlas of our changing environment- Nairobi, Kenya, Division of Early Warning and Assessment (DEWA).

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Land use changeToskha Project, Egypt

UNEP (2005): One planet many people: Atlas of our changing environment.- Nairobi, Kenya, Division of Early Warning and Assessment (DEWA).

Aim: Doubling of the agricultural land area

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Land use changeAl’ Isaw Iyah, Saudi Arabia

UNEP (2005): One planet many people: Atlas of our changing environment.- Nairobi, Kenya, Division of Early Warning and Assessment (DEWA).

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HazardHazard variesvaries

• Spatially• Temporally• Frequency• Magnitude

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HazardHazard variesvaries

• Spatially• Temporally• Frequency• Magnitude

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TheThe‚‘‘officialofficial‘‘ disasterdisaster databasedatabase on on thethe WebWebwww.emdat.be




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EMDATEMDAT

At least one of the following criteria met for including in the EMDAT:

• 10 or more people reported killed• 100 or more people reported affected• Declaration of state of emergency• Call for international assistance

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DisasterDisaster StatisticsStatisticsEvents have increased with a factor of 2 ! ?

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DisasterDisaster StatisticsStatisticsLosses have increased with a factor of 7 !

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Felgentreff C & Glade T (2008): Naturrisiken - Sozialkatastrophen: zum Geleit.- in: Felgentreff C. & Glade T (Hrsg.): Naturrisiken und Sozialkatastrophen.- Springer-Verlag. Berlin: 1-10.

Number of natural disasters

Economic losses

Insured losses

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DisasterDisaster StatisticsStatisticsNumber of casualities

Number of people killed, injured or displaced due to natural hazards during the twentieth century (based on WHO, 2002).

Temporal evolution

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WhyWhy such an such an increaseincrease??

Effect: - more extreme hazard events- higher vulnerability

Sea level rise:15 -58 cm / 100 yearTemperature increase:

1.8 to 4 degrees in 1 century




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WhyWhy such an such an increaseincrease??Population growth: 7-11 Billion

General-Anzeiger Bonn 26.10.02, S.43

So what?????

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HistoricHistoric contextcontext!!!!Web Web searchsearch: Topics of : Topics of recordsrecords

Analysis of records, which are available online. Source: Lang, Dix 2007

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Web Web searchsearch: Data : Data forfor recordsrecords

Time spans covered by records, which are available online.Source: Lang, Dix 2007

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Glaser (2001)

FireFire

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EarthquakeEarthquake

Picture annexed to "Relación sucinta de las desgracias, que han causado en Orihuela", Barcelona, 1829 (Albini et al. 2001).

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f

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d

Urban evolution of Nicolosi since 1359. 1) Old settlement nearby the monastery of S. Nicolò la Rena (until 1669); 2) Historical centre (building began around 1700); a) Piazza Quarter; b) Carmine Q.; c) S. Giuseppe Q.; d) Purgatorio Q.; e) Grazie Q.; f) Piano Q.; g) S. Francesco Q.; h) Tabor Q (Barbano et al. 2001)

Year Month Day Hour Epicentral area Lat Long Ms Ix Io Iobs (EMS)1408 11 9 Etna 37,750 15,000 3.0 5 5 5 1536 3 23 Etna 37,750 15,000 3.9 7-8 7-8 7-8 1633 2 21 23 00 Nicolosi 37,600 15,017 4.8 8-9 8-9 8-9 1669 3 10 23 25 Nicolosi 37,600 15,017 4.8 9 8-9 9 1693 1 11 13 30 Eastern Sicily 37,443 15,192 7.0 11 10-11 9-10 1818 2 20 18 15 Catania area 37,616 15,099 6.2 9-10 9 7-8 1832 11 24 03 30 Nicolosi 37,614 15,026 3.7 7-8 7 7-8 1842 11 18 01 15 Belpasso 37,607 15,022 3.4 5-6 6 5 1883 3 22 00 15 Nicolosi 37,653 15,065 4.1 7-8 8 7-8 1883 3 22 22 30 Belpasso 37,602 15,003 3.7 6-7 7 6-7 1883 3 26 21 26 Nicolosi 37,614 15,026 3.5 6-7 6-7 6-7 1883 4 5 08 58 Nicolosi 37,679 15,058 3.4 5-6 6 5-6 1883 4 28 01 25 Nicolosi 37,614 15,026 3.5 6-7 6-7 6-7 1883 6 24 07 47 E Flank Etna 37,705 15,121 3.7 6-7 7 4-5 1883 6 17 08 45 Nicolosi 37,614 15,024 2.8 4-5 4-5 4-5 1883 6 24 09 30 Nicolosi 37,615 15,023 2.8 4-5 4-5 4-5 1883 6 29 01 00 Nicolosi 37,613 15,028 2.8 4-5 4-5 4-5 1883 10 7 04 45 Nicolosi 37,613 15,027 2.8 4-5 4-5 4-5 1885 9 25 07 05 Nicolosi 37,614 15,027 3.7 7 7 7 1885 10 2 02 30 Nicolosi 37,614 15,026 3.5 6-7 6-7 6-7 1886 6 5 11 13 Santa Venerina 37,699 15,154 3.5 6 6-7 4-5 1892 7 8 18 50 S Flank Etna 37,673 14,997 3.7 6-7 7 4-5 1892 7 9 13 32 S Flank Etna 37,679 15,108 3.2 5 5-6 5 1893 3 31 Nicolosi 37,614 15,026 3.4 5-6 6 5-6 1893 4 1 07 09 Zafferana Etnea 37,685 15,056 3.4 5-6 6 4-5 1894 8 8 05 16 Mazzasette 37,653 15,110 4.3 8-9 8-9 4-5 1894 11 16 17 52 Bagnara Calabra 38,278 15,903 5.9 9 8-9 5

Site catalogue for Nicolosi (I > 4-5 EMS). Source parameters fromCamassi and Stucchi (1997) and Antichi et al. (2000). Coordinatesrepresent the macroseismic epicentre determined as the barycentre of thedata points with intensity I=Ix, Ix-1. Ms, surface wave magnitude, frominstrumental observation or derived from epicentral intensity I0 byexperimental relationships (Camassi and Stucchi, 1997; Azzaro and Barbano, 1997). Ix, maximum observed intensity; I0, epicentral intensity; Iobs, observed intensity in Nicolosi (Barbano et al. 2001).

Mt. Mt. EtnaEtna, , NicolosiNicolosi




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ReconstructionReconstruction of of seismicityseismicity

Seismic history of Nicolosi. Observedintensities Iobs (Barbano et al. 2001)

1

10

100

1000

I n t e n s i t y ( E M S - 9 8 )3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Ret

urn

perio

d(y

r)

Average return period with associated error forNicolosi site, computed according to Magri et al. (1994) (Barbano et al. 2001).

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EarthquakeEarthquake

Localities (in northern Italy) affected by the 1117 earthquake, based on historical sources and epigraphs (Galadini et al. 2001).

Localities with archaeological remains whichtestify to possible seismically induced damagerelated to the 1117 earthquake (Galadini et al. 2001).

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A, B) Walls of the left nave and apse of the ancient San Lorenzo church at Trento; the destruction of the church, together with the tilting and fracturing of the walls are the probable effects of the 1117 earthquake; C) chronological constraints available for the San Lorenzo church destruction from archaeological, historical and radiocarbon dating (Galadini et al. 2001).

Summary map of the available data derived from historicalsources, architectural evolution of Romanic buildings,

archaeology and historical landslides; indications of coseismic damage and geological effects are more denselydistributed in the area indicated by thin blue lines (Galadini

et al. 2001).

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DateTime HST

Lat deg

Lat min

Lon deg

Lon min region

Pref. Depth

M other

M other source

M pref

M pref source I (max) Location/felt report Comment

11/01/1790 kilauea 6,4 int VII-VIII

The natives say that in the days of Kamehameha, 80 shocks were felt in one

day, some of them so hard as to throw down houses. This was soon followed by

an eruption of the volcano which destroyed some lives and did much

damage. . . .Martin, 1979, p. 71; minimum magnitude

of largest event estimated from intensity

8/31/1821 19:00west

hawaii 5,3 int V . . . at 7 pm we had a very smart shock of

an earth quake. . . . [p. 8]

Young, 1801 [Note: Young was living in west Hawaii; journal page labeled 1821, but day/date do not agree with perpetual calendar. If day is accepted, then date is

Aug. 31, 1821.]; intensity interpreted from "smart" as used in Lyman diary

6/01/1823 22:00 kl sf ~7 W&K 7,0 w&k IX (S&C)

Graben on Kilauea's lower SW rift formed two months before Ellis visit on July 31;

felt at Kaimu (Puna) where it formed a crack one foot wide; seawater entered a

freshwater well; stone wall, 4 ft thick, 6 ft high, thrown down; no mention of

tsunamiWyss and Koyanagi, 1992, App. 3, p. 57;

Ellis/1825; Stover and Coffmann, 1993

7/10/1823

Eruption on Kilauea's southwest rift zone (Great Crack) described as occurring three

weeks before Ellis' visit. [Note: this possibly dates the end of the eruption. The

beginning might have been close to the time of the large earthquake] Ellis, 1825

1/6/1825 23:30 kona? 6,2 int VII

a heavy shock at Kaawaloa, preceded by rumbling; motion so rapid that it woke us

from sleep and shook us violently; standing persons thrown suddenly to the

earth, lying persons tossed from side to side; acc by landslides from Kealakekua

paliEly, 1825, p. 686-687; stationed at

Kaawaloa, now Kealakekua Bay

1/7/1825 02:00 kona? 4,5 int IV-V

At the hours of 2 and 3 the same night two others were experienced much lighter than the one before described. The vibrations of

the earth were from the North east to the south west terminating suddenly like the

motion of a carriage slipping on a pavement

Ely, 1825, p. 686-687; aftershocks? Intensity assumed strong enough to waken

people1/7/1825 03:00 kona? 4,5 int IV-V do do

9/6/1825 11:59 maui? 5,9 int VI

. . . there was a shock of an earthquake perceived here [Lahaina, Maui] which

though not considerable was nonetheless sufficient to alarm the people . . . Not reported elsewhere on Maui. [no time

given]Richards, 1825; stationed at Lahaina,

Maui

1/9/1826 06:00south

hawaii? 5,3 int V

. . . a little before sunrise, we had a considerable smart shock of an

earthquake. I first perceived by the trembling or shaking of things in the

house and was soon followed by a shock that made crockery rattle considerable.

The whole duration was perhap Goodrich, 1826; stationed at Hilo, Hawaii

11/5/1827 01:59 hawaii 5,3 int V

Last night we were awakened from our quiet slumbers by the shock of an

earthquake. It was much lighter than what is often expressed in this island though it

shook our house very sensibly [time assumed] Ely, 1825, p. 686

. . . at 7 pm we had a very smart shock of an earth quake. . . . [p. 8]

Young, 1801 [Note: Young was living in west Hawaii; journal page labeled 1821, but day/date do not agree with perpetual calendar. If day is accepted, then date is

Aug. 31, 1821.]; intensity interpreted from "smart" as used in Lyman diary

Klein FW & Wright TL (2000): Cataloge of Hawaiianearthquakes, 1823-1959, USGS Professional Paper 1623

EarthquakeEarthquake--CataloqueCataloque of Hawaii,of Hawaii,1823 1823 -- 19591959

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ClimateClimate and and weatherweather recordsrecords

Glaser (2001)

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LakeLake--level changeslevel changes

Frauenchiemsee

Pfister (1999)

Bodensee




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FloodsFloods

Poliwoda G (2007): Aus Katastrophen Lernen - Sachsen im Kampf gegen die Fluten der Elbe 1784 bis1845.- Böhlau Verlag, Köln, S.17

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FloodsFloods

Glaser (2001)

Glaser (2001)

Glaser (2001)

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FloodsFloods

Different views of the Pont Major Church (Girona) illustrating the level of the November 3rd 1617 flood event of the Ter River. Arrows indicate the flood elevation which isapproximately 3.6 m above street level. (Benito et al. in press).

3.6 m

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FloodsFloods

Glaser (2001)

Flood marksFlood marksOld bridge Old bridge -- HeidelbergHeidelberg

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FloodsFloods

Poliwoda G (2007): Aus KatastrophenLernen - Sachsen im Kampf gegen die Flutender Elbe 1784 bis1845.- Böhlau Verlag, Köln,S.201

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ReconstructionsReconstructions

Poliwoda G (2007): Aus KatastrophenLernen - Sachsen im Kampf gegen die Fluten der Elbe 1784 bis1845.- BöhlauVerlag, Köln, S.213




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(Glaser, 2001)

Areas of damages from flooding1784, ElbeVally between Prague and Magdeburg

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Ordinary Flood No documentary record

Extraordinary Flood Documentary record

Catastrophic Flood Documentary record

Normal Level No documentary recorda)

d)

c)

b)

Graphic representation of the flood definition criteria (Llasat & Barriendos 2001).

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M i

ñ o

S e g u r a

D u e r o

J ú c a r

T u r i a

E b r o

G u a d i a n a

T a j o

G u a d a l q u i v i r5354

49

5256

4248

51

55

118

20 17

40

10

2

1

384346

15

45

21

4

5

12

19

16

13

14

35

3326

22

6

3

Data collection from documentary sources

Localities to be researchedData collection from bibliographical sources

0km 500km

7

9

18

2524

2327

343231302928

36

374139

44

47

50

Data collection from other researchers

Localities already studied and with potential flood series (Llasat & Barriendos 2001).

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A: Schematic diagram illustrating the changing level of floodperception through time according to progressive human settlementtowards the river. This means that the threshold of flood discharges

recorded in the historical documents decreases with time. B: Geomorphic surfaces covered with slack-water flood deposits

showing different thresholds of flood discharges. C: Organisation of historical, palaeoflood and systematic data, using the described

scharge thresholds, for flood frequency analysis (Benito et al. 2004).

Alcove filled with slack-water flood deposits of the Llobregat river. Numbers indicate distinct flood units or flood events (Benito et al. 2004).

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Morphological changes of the River Tagus during the last two centuries, in the Santarém region (Azevedo et al. 2004). M

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AM / PD

Censored Data -Magnitude

known or not

Censored Data -Magnitude

known or not

PERIODS(a)

PREHISTORIC(b)

HISTORIC

Datasources

Data types

PaleofloodHydrology

(b1) OccasionalObservations

(b2) PermanentObservers

Gauging Stations

Systematic Data

Wat

er E

leva

tion

/D

isch

arge

Uncertainties

PerceptionThreshold

AlarmThresholds

12

(c)CONTEMPORARY

1 Year

SamplingThreshold

Daily WaterLevels–Detail

of Floods

ORAL EVIDENCEARCHIVAL SURVEY

GEOLOGICAL INDICATORSBIOLOGICAL INDICATORS

AM SeriesPD Series

Various types of flood information (Naulet et al. 2001).

Cross section at the natural arc of Pont d’Arc(near Vallon Pont d’Arc) with water levels of the October 9-10, 1827 and September 28-29, 1846 floods (Combier, 1857) (aus Naulet et al. 2001).

10 oct. 1827

9 sept. 1772

3 sept. 1744

6

10

14

18

h w

ater

ele

vatio

n (m

)

HISTORIC PERIODOccasional observations

Provisional water level series reconstituted at the hydrometricstation of Vallon Pont d'Arc over the period 1744-1965 (aus Naulet et al. 2001).

FloodsFloods




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Earth flows(Gisborne, April 2002)

Dikau, R., Brunsden, D., Schrott, L. & Ibsen, M. [eds.] 1996: Landslide Recognition. Identification, movement and causes.- Chichester, Wiley.

Dikau, R. & Glade, T. 2002: Gefahren und Risiken durch Massenbewegungen.- Geographische Rundschau, 54(1): 38-45.

Mass movementsMass movements

ca. 150 m

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Rockslide ofRockslide ofPiursPiurs, Italy, Italy25. August /25. August /4. September 16184. September 1618

whole flank collapsed – approx. 3 Mio m3

Deposits up to 10m in thicknessProlonged rainfall end of August200 houses in Piurs & Schilanoburied930 fatalities

Zeller R (2003): Wahrnehmung und Deutung von Naturkatastrophen.- In: Pfister

C (Hrsg.): Am Tag danach.- Haupt Verlag, 55-68.

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past small-scale landslides destabilsed mountain flank,2 extreme wet years prior to 1806,Landslide body went as far as 100m upwards on opposite slope,Part of body in Lake Lauerzer, off-site damages at lake shores

Umrissradierung gestochen v. Gabriel Lory

Villages Goldau, Röthen & Buosigen were buried>500 fatalities, 200 homelesslosses ~200 million CHF

Fässler A (2003): Geburt der gesamtheitlichen Solidarität.- In: Pfister C (Hrsg.): Am Tag danach.- Haupt Verlag, 55-68.

Rockslide of Rockslide of ArthArth GoldauGoldau 2. September 18062. September 1806M

ount

ain

Ris

ks: 2

007-

2010

A M

arie

Cur

ie R

esea

rch

& T

rain

ing

Net

wor

k





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10 million m3 rock, area 9 mill. m2, 3 surges in 20 min.people spectated event

- despite knowledge of rockfalls 114 fatalitiespreparatory factor: shale mining

Bläuer HP (2003): Der Bergsturz von Elm am 11. September 1881.- In: Pfister C (Hrsg.): Am Tag danach.-Haupt Verlag, 113-130.

Lithographie v. Heinrich Burger-Hofer

Rockslide of Elm Rockslide of Elm 11. September 188111. September 1881

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deposition area

Clearing with simple tools(pickax, shovel, tackle,

wheelbarrow) took several decades

today: meadows and sport facilities

Photographs: J. Ganz

RockslideRockslideof Elmof Elm




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Bell R (2007): Lokale und regionale Gefahren- und Risikoanalyse gravitativer Massenbewegungen an der Schwäbischen Alb.- Doktorarbeit eingereicht an der Universität Bonn.

SwabianSwabian Alb: Settlement areaAlb: Settlement area

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Bell R (2007): Lokale und regionale Gefahren- und Risikoanalyse gravitativer Massenbewegungen an der Schwäbischen Alb.- Doktorarbeit eingereicht an der Universität Bonn.

SwabianSwabian Alb: Settlement areaAlb: Settlement area

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SwabianSwabian Alb: DocumentsAlb: Documents

Account of landslide in Hausen an der Fils 1805Source: Gemeindearchiv Bad Überkingen

Account of landslide in Ratshausen 1787Source: HStA Stuttgart

By

cout

esy

of A

. Dix

, Uni

vers

ity o

f Bam

berg

.

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SwabianSwabian Alb: Old maps as source dataAlb: Old maps as source data

Extract of so-called Bachmayer-Karte from 1651, landslide at the NägelesbergSource: HStA Stuttgart

By

cout

esy

of A

. Dix

, Uni

vers

ity o

f Bam

berg

.

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SwabianSwabian Alb:Alb:Detailed information from mapsDetailed information from maps

Detail from a map of the Kirchheimer Forst, 1816Source: HStA Stuttgart

Zur V

erfü

gung

ges

tellt

dur

ch A

. Dix

, Uni

vers

ität B

ambe

rg.

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Insights gained from Insights gained from historical datahistorical data

Landslide at the Gräbelesberg (top = hillshade of the DTM1 with mapped landslide body out of GK25, bottom = hillshade with mapped massmovements and historic protective barrier)

Bell, R. (2007): Lokale und regionale Gefahren-und Risikoanalyse gravitativerMassenbewegungen an der Schwäbischen Alb.-Doktorarbeit eingereicht an der Universität Bonn.




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Glade T & Dikau R (2001): Gravitative Massenbewegungen - vom Naturereignis zur Naturkatastrophe.-Petermanns Geographische Mitteilungen 145(6), 42-55.

Randa 1991 Vaiont © Eddy Bromhead

Mt. Husquarna © USGS Plaker

CatastrophicCatastrophiclandslides landslides

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Italian inventory of Italian inventory of natural disastersnatural disasters

ErathquakesM. Bonito (1691)G. Mercalli (1883)M. Baratta (1901)

EpidemiesA. Corradi (1865-1894)

FloodsA. Bottoni (1873)

LandslidesR. Almagià (1906-1910)

Based on information provided by Fausto Guzzetti

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Historical data in natural hazard Historical data in natural hazard analysis and risk managementanalysis and risk management

Weichselgartner J (2001): Disaster mitigation: the concept of vulnerability revisited.- Disaster Prevention and Management, 10(2): 85-94.

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SummarySummary

• Historic information on spatial and temporal occurrences of natural processes are most important

• Previously global historic research approachesfocused mainly on earthquakes and floods

• In some countries other processes are well studied / documented (e.g. mass movements in Italy)

• Only local studies with specific research – no generalconcept of data storage and analysis for easy access

• Adoption of new web technologies is desired

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Thanks for your attentionThanks for your attentionwww.joe-ks.com/archives_jun2003/ThaiGuy.jpg

[email protected]&

[email protected]

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SomeSome usefuluseful links links

• http://www.defra.gov.uk/Environment/risk/eramguide/01.htm• http://www.eriskcenter.org/• http://www.e-debris.org




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TheThe‚‘‘officialofficial‘‘ disasterdisaster databasedatabase on on thethe WebWebwww.emdat.be

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DesInventarDesInventar• http://www.desenredando.org/• http://www.desinventar.org/desinventar.html

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GLIDEnumberGLIDEnumber• http://www.glidenumber.net

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EarlyEarly warningwarning initiatives initiatives • Reliefweb (www.reliefweb.int/)

ReliefWeb is the global hub for time-critical humanitarian information on Complex Emergencies and Natural Disasters,from United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

• AlertNet (www.alertnet.org/)

Reuters AlertNet is a humanitarian news network

• HEWS (www.hewsweb.org/home_page/default.asp)

Inter-Agency Standing Committee of WFP and UNICEF

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MunichMunich RE RE • http://www.munichre.com/en/ts/geo_risks/default.aspx

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NATHAN NATHAN MunichMunich RE RE • http://mrnathan.munichre.com/




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Red Cross Red Cross ClimateClimate Centre Centre • http://www.climatecentre.org/

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IPCC: Main IPCC: Main sourcesource• http://www.ipcc.ch/

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Impacts, Impacts, adaptionadaption and and vulnerabilityvulnerability• http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm

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Al Gore Al Gore …… thethe moviemovie

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LiteratureLiteraturePfister, C (1999): Wetternachhersage. 500 Jahre Klimavariationen und Naturkatastrophen (1496-1995). Bern

Glade, T., Paola A. & Francis, F. (Hrsg.) (2002): The use of historical data in natural hazard assessments. Dordrecht

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LiteratureLiterature Dix, A. (2008): Historische Ansätze in der Hazard- und Risikoanalyse. In: Felgentreff, Carsten u. Glade, Thomas (Hrsg.), Naturrisiken und Sozialkatastrophen. Heidelberg 2008, S. 201-208

Glaser, R. (2001): Klimageschichte Mitteleuropas. 1000 Jahre Wetter, Klima, Katastrophen. Darmstadt




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LargestLargest disastersdisasters fromfrom 20072007

Ursprünglich nach Folie EMSTAT

(from a presentation given by Cees van Westen)

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ComparisonComparison withwith previousprevious yearsyears


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DisasterDisaster StatisticsStatistics

Left: Frequency of natural hazards during the twentieth century. Tsunami data comes from the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (2003). Tornado statistics for the USA are for the 1990–1995 period only and derived from the High Plains Regional Climate Center (2003). All other data based on WHO (2002).Right:Cost of natural hazards, summarized by type of hazardfor the 100 biggest events, 1900–2001 (based on WHO, 2002).

Number of events Financial damage


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Ursprünglich nach Folie Why such an increase


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ClimateClimate changechange and and disastersdisasters


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Future Future predictionprediction …… Low income countries

High income countries





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RiskRisk and and environmentalenvironmental changechange

Hazard Vulnerability

Risk


Risk

Future Development

Climate change

Current Situation

Future Situation


Risk


Risk

Future Development

Climate change

Current Situation

Future Situation

Current Situation

Future Situation


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DisasterDisaster managementmanagement cyclecycle– disaster prevention– disaster preparedness – disaster relief– Rehabilitation– Reconstruction

Traditional approach. Is it really a cycle?(from a presentation given by Cees van Westen)

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ExpandExpand –– ContractContract ProcessProcess


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Pre-disaster phases Post-disaster phases Risk Identification

Mitigation Risk Transfer Preparedness Emergency response

Rehabilitation and Reconstruction

Hazard Assessment

Physical/structural mitigation works

Insurance/ reinsurance

Early warning systems. Communication systems

Humanitarian assistance / rescue

Rehabilitation/reconstruction of damaged critical infrastructure

Vulnerability assessment

Land-use planning and building codes

Financial market instruments

Monitoring and forecasting

Clean-up, temporary repairs and restoration of services

Macroeconomic and budget management

Risk Assessment

Economic incentives

Privatization of public services with safety regulations

Shelter facilities Emergency planning

Damage assessment

Revitalization of affected sectors (exports,tourism)

GIS mapping and scenario building

Education, training and awareness

Calamity funds Contingency planning (utility companies / public services)

Mobilization of recovery resources

Incorporation of disaster mitigation components in reconstruction

Spatial information is very important

Spatial information is important but in combination with other information

Spatial information is much less important compared to other information

Key Key elementselements of of DisasterDisaster Management Management


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RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNT

Hazard = PROBABILITY of event with a certain magnitude

Vulnerability = Degree of damage. Function of:• magnitude of event, and • type of elements at risk

Amount = Quantification of the elements at risk e.g.• Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc.• Loss of function or economic activities• Number of people

HazardHazard, , vulnerabilityvulnerability and and riskrisk? ?
