Europaav Kolumn B

ALADIN (12)COSMO (5)HIRLAM (8)UK (1)

Europa

HIRLAM-6 plan and work • MoU, Motivations, Targets

• Data assimilation, 3D-VAR and 4D-VAR

• Observation usage

• Parameterisation

• Dynamics

• System and embedding

• Lead Centre for RCR

• Météo-France agreement

HIRLAM-6 Memorandum of Understanding

• Targets– achieve highest possible accuracy for severe weather and

of wind, precipitation and temperature

– develop 3D/4D-VAR further and its use of non-conventional data

– maintain the regular analysis/forecasting cycle

– continue development of synoptic model 10-20 km

– develop meso-scale non-hydrostatic operational model with suitable physical parameterisation

– Overhaul of complete System

– develop methods for probabilistic forecasting

– continue development of verification methods

HIRLAM-6 organisation

HIRLAM CouncilAdvisory Comittee

Project Leader

Data Assimilation algorithms

Model physics System

Core group members (8)Staff (14)

Heads of Research

Model dynamics

Management Group : Project Leader : Area leaders : System ManagerData Assimilation observation usage

Overhaul leader

Module responsibles

HIRLAM strategy - synoptic• Synoptic model, 10-20 km, every 6 hours -> 2 (3) days,

4D-VAR and satellite data over a (fairly) large area– provides comprehensive set of forecast parameters for

applications and driving other models

– boundary conditions and tight coupling to meso-scale model

– covers window between ECMWF forecasts - more recent observations and boundaries (frames)

HIRLAM strategy - meso-scale• Meso-scale data assimilation and model , 2-3 km non-

hydrostatic model +3-12 (24 h)– physics for 2km, explicit convection

– turbulence and radiation non-local (later, ~ 1 km )

– rapid update cycle, vast amount of regional data available, conv/non-conv, reflectivity, precipitation ..

– 4D-VAR /3D-VAR FGAT - if in short time - spinup?

– Boundary field impact, transparent boundary cond.

Experiences and plans elsewhere:– 4D-VAR moisture and non-linear effects ECMWF

– UK Workshop Reading 2003, 4D-VAR or EnsKF at 1-3 km - no known balances at this scale !

– JMA ….

• Data Assimilation– 3D-VAR improvements

• FGAT implemented

• improved quality contr & background constraint (horizontal variation)

• flow dependency - Eady index - estimation (D. Dee)

– 4D-VAR developments• semi-Lagrangian dynamics, SETTLS, gain x 3

• incremental (and multi-) code implemented

• MF regularised physics (Buizza used mainly so far)

• Data Assimilation (cont)– Surface analysis

• tuning , new statistics)

• snow (OI)

• new data sources for physiography

• soil moisture and temperature (variational, ELDAS)

• Observation usage:– Conventional data

• Quality control and monitoring

• Tuning of observation errors

– Non-conventional data• ATOVS

– AMSU-A: bias correction, tuning

– EUMETSAT ATOVS Re-transmission Service

– land/ice, HIRS and AMSU-B

– Ts, emissitivity control variables

• Non-conventional data (cont)– Quikscat ambiguous winds

• implementation

– Radar winds assimilated• radial wind super-obs, de-aliasing, QC

• VAD winds, European exchange OPERA

– GPS ZTD prec. Water content

– Profilers -• impact study done - monitoring, blacklist needed

– SSM/I , MODIS

• Forecast model physics– Turbulence scheme

• revised stable formulation

• moist conservative scheme– total water potential temperature for the Ri

• coupling with condensation– statistical cloud scheme

In stable conditions:

(Non-linear averaging effects)

January 1999

• Forecast model physics (cont)– clouds and condensation

• cloud scheme - statistical - planned in turbulence

• micro physics will be worked on later

• RK or STRACO large scale condensation

– surface scheme ISBA• esat over snow

• soil freezing implemented

• new snow model to be implemented very soon

• new databases - ECOCLIMAP

Snow scheme in ISBA main modifications to original code:

• Only new snow scheme on fractions 3 and 4• Force-restore formulation replaced by heat conduction• Heat capacity of uppermost layer replaced by 1 cm moist soil.• A second soil layer (7.2 cm)• Forest area decreased so that at least 10% of area is low-vegetation• At present (temporarilly!) no soil freezing• Forest tile, no modifications

Tclim

ISBA: snow covering parts of fractions 3 and 4

Td snow

Td 3 and 4Ts2 snow

Ts2 3 and 4

Ts snow Ts 3 and 4T

snow

Thermally active layer

snow in beginning of timestep Snow change

mixing of T in soilbetween timesteps

Features of the snow scheme:

• move the snow from fractions 3 and 4 to fraction 6 every timestep

• one layer of the snow, with a thermally active layer < 15 cm

• water in the snow, which can refreeze

• varying albedo and density

• mirroring of temperature profile in the ground to assure correct memory

• Forecast model physics (cont)– Convection

• STRACO developments implemented

• Kain-Fritsch code as an option - then tested

– Radiation scheme / updates

– Sub grid scale orography• implement later - after turbulence changes

• alternative, orographic turbulence

• Model Dynamics– Time integration

• Semi-Lagrangian updates, Ritchie-Tanguay T equation

• Semi-Lagrangian and physics coupling, Wedi

– NH model• semi-Lagrangian version (Tartu)

• physics for meso-scale will be provided

• testing and compare external model (under discussion)

– Boundary conditions• Improve current boundary scheme

• Research and development of schemes for transparent boundary conditions

– Digital filter initialisation• Launching (forward), reduced spin up

• Incremental version and spin-up studies

• Blending

– Forecast probabilities• LAMEPS (ECMWF perturbations) - near real time trial

• (LAM singular vectors ?)

• System and Embedding:– implementing developments – testing of the beta-releases -> Reference

– Regular Cycle of Reference system - validation - FMI RCR

– Efficiency and Overhaul of System - limited work

– Verification methods - development - Workshop 2004

– Communication and documentation - HeXNeT

• Scientific documentation, Paper planned

Lead Centre for Regular Cycle with the Reference• FMI / HIRLAM agreement

– FMI runs the Reference System as operational model

– Is the RCR of HIRLAM-6

– Operational attention and support for RCR

– Reference system at 0.2/40, reference settings and obs

– RCR products in near real time on HeXNeT

– Not operational status but high level of support

– Full data set on HeXNeT available to all HIRLAM

– Very limited deviations (ice ,SST), available to all

– emergency changes

• Procedures for upgrades– proposed beta release tested 4x4 weeks– parallel run at FMI < 2 months– agreement between FMI and MG– Core group support for solving problems

• travel funds within the Budget

– up to 2 Reference releases per year

• Monitoring– Operational forecasters in real time on HeXNeT– Automatic near real time displays of obseravations

and fields– Monthly monitoring reports , observations, fields,

errors, diagnostics, profiles

Météo-France agreement• 3D-VAR• Observations, conventional, radar , TOVS• Surface• Turbulence• Orographic drag• Convection at intermediate scales (-)• 4D-VAR simplified physics (-)• Physics - dynamics interface • Radiation scheme ?• NH dynamics ??• Near real time intercomparisons ?• Diagnostics and verification