higher education significance

8/17/2019 Higher education Significance

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Futures for Higher EducationScenario workshop

DELEGATE PACK


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4 uestions to co!p"ete #efore we start


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3www. .com

$hat%s &our 'ision for the HE sector in () &ears*


4/41

4www. .com

$hat wi"" the !ost successfu"

institutions #e doing in () &ears that the othersaren%t*


5/41

5www. .com

+t%s ,- &ears fro! now. what wi"" ha'e

changed !ost in ter!s of the uni'ersit&%s/

/!ission

/inco!e

/organisation 0 wa&s of working


6/41

6www. .com

$hich aspect of &our strateg& is !ost critica" toensuring the future success of the uni'ersit&*


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F1T12ES F32 H+GHE2

ED1CAT+3

Trends presentation

5),,


8/41

The workshop addresses two

!ain ai!s

Analysingtrends into thefuture and what

is taking usthere

Exploring whatwe want for

the future andhow we could

get there


9/41

This presentation focuses on

three !ain trends

Thefundingof highereducation in theUK

Thedemandfor

highereducation

Innovati on andevolution inhigher

education

APICTUREFORTHE

FUTURE?


10/41

NOWCurrent

situation

2/3-5 years‘Lock ins’

Long-term r!"ers

Outcome 1

Outcome 2

Outcome 3

What is hoped for int#e 3$-year "!s!on?

Short-term choices

Long-term choices

‘Segment stories’

A.

B.

C.

nstitutional le!el

"ector le!el

Key indicators 2010 2015 2040

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&'" "L(E LL)"&*A&E"C+,-+E&" +/ &'E(A0


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And these are points for the

group to consider

'eadline 1uestions

• What are the key

decisions that faceyour institution?

• 'ow 2ight theseshape highereducation in the )3and around theworld?

•

'ow do you see thefuture of 'E in the

&hings to think a4out

• What sectors ha!e

changed 4eyondrecognition?

• What sectors arestarting rapid changenow?

• What a4out ‘Black"wans’?


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DEVELOPING A PICTURE OFTHE FUTURE


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These are so!e caricatures of

the "ast decade

6 De!and continuing to outstrip hea'i"&

regu"ated supp"&

6 Persistence of a do!inant ( &ear residentia"

degree !ode" 7 prestige of traditiona" !ode"s

6 Pri'ate pro'iders and FE !argina" or

su#ordinate to uni'ersities


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And this has #een the stor& of

funding for the past twent& &ears


15/41

$e are now set for a

"i#era"isation of the !arket

6 Supp"& side "i#era"isation

6Tuition fee rep"acing grant 7 with !ore scope fordifferentiation in cost 83r not999:

6 Stronger de!and "ed focus on ;ua"it&%

6 +ntroduction of a!enda#"e !echanis!s to restrain

ta


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3thers sectors ha'e #een

through "i#era"isation

• L o t s o f s 2 a l l n i c h e s u p p l i e r s 5 s o 2 e 4 i g ! a l u e e n t r a n t s

ew entrants?

• n w h a t i s o 6 e r e d i n t e r 2 s o f s e r ! i c e s 7 p r i c i n g 7 s u p p o r t 7 e t c

nno!ation?

• B i g g e s t a n d 2 o s t 8 n a n c i a l l y s o u n d o f t h e ‘ i n c u 2 4 e n t s ’

Continued 2arketdo2ination for a ti2e?

• A 2 o n g s t 4 o t h o r i g i n a l p l a y e r s a n d n e w e n t r a n t s/ailures7 2ergers andtake9o!ers?

• E x a n t e t o p r o t e c t c o n s u 2 e r i n t e r e s t s a n d e x p o s t c o 2 p e t i t i o n l a w

ew regulation?

• A n i n : u x o f f o r e i g n i n ! e s t 2 e n t a t s o 2 e p o i n tew sources offunding?


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A #ig assu!ption that needs to #e

assessed

-ostindustrialecono2icde!elop2ent

(e!eloping 2iddleclasses in

e2ergingecono2ies

(ata richandknowledge dri!enworld ;

learningthroughout career

Ongo!ngangro%!ngeman&or

#!g#ere'(at!onanresear(#


18/41

Cou"d this #e a picture of a

deregu"ated high de!and future*

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97,997

,,,.4@)109,940,,?.@4)117,290122,150

136,295

152,620173,985

199,225

214,6905,.,>-

239,210229,645

54>.-

High! "#$%&i'( i()&i&i'(%* i($'+ !'+ ('(-EU "'+i$i*" )"(&) 1994.95 - 2008.09

/%(" ('(-EU "'+i$i* )"(& (#+!) $*#"i(g )"(&) !'+ EEA $'#(&!i)

A$%"+i$ %!)

+i**i'(, $%)h &!+)

"(& (#+!) /h%" $'#(&)

SourceB Higher Education Statistics A genc& 8HESA:B 2esources of higher education institutions. Students in higher education institutions. 'arious &ears

5 1 , 8

8 0 +

5 1 , 4

9 9 +

Fro! 5))>0)@ w riting up and sa##atica" students are no "onger inc"uded in standard counts of students

*

*

5 1 , 7

1 3 +

5 2 , 2

0 0 +


19/41

Howe'er the worst financia" and

econo!ic crisis since ,5 started in 5))>

Our GDP growth forecast is slow relativeto previous recoveries. This reects theeects of the scal consolidation, therelatively slow easing of tight creditconditions and ongoing private sector

deleveraging. )ar(# 2$**

Given rising pressure on governments!alance sheets and limitations on pu!licfunding growth, "oodys anticipates thatthe university sector will, over the longterm, see# more independent sources of

funding to nance growth ande$pansion. %e anticipate thatendowment fund !uilding through

philanthropy, enrolments of internationalstudents and !orrowing will rise in somecountries. 'igherEducation7 @une $


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And the route out is "ong and

co!p"e<

Econo2ic

outlook

"o!ereign de4t

crisis

Bankingde4tcrisis

Creditand

lendingcrisis

*ecession andune2pl

oy92ent


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$i"" this "ock in the shift to

tuition #ased funding*


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$hat other uestions wi"" need to

#e reso"'ed*

2 2 e d i a t e 1 u e s t i o n s • 2 p a c t o f g o ! e r n 2 e n t s t u d e n t n u 2 4 e r d e r e g u l a t i o n a n d i n c e n t i ! e s


23/41

How wi"" these changes affect

pressures around999

6 ;Custo!er% satisfaction 7 ua"it& of teaching

and faci"ities*

6 Staff and professiona" satisfaction 7 the

'o"u!e and ua"it& of research*

6 Prestige and the push for ;wor"d c"ass%

status 7 continued cost inf"ation*


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$e are a"read& seeing the

g"o#a"isation of higher education

5))0,)HE+ in the 1K

5))0,)HE+ o'erseas

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[email protected])

(4).),)

O7!)%) )"(&) '( U8 HE !'7i)i'( %(" *'$%&i'( ' )"4, 2009.10

L'$%&i'( ' )"4


25/41

This is #eing dri'en #& g"o#a"

econo!ic de'e"op!ent

China seeks to be the Asian country with the greatest number of

international students and a major destination in the world for

international students, according to goals outlined in its National

Plan for Medium and Long-Term ducation !eform and

"e#elo$ment %&'(')&'&'*+ ith an annual international student

growth rate of ., international student numbers will reach at

least /'',''' by &'&', making it the biggest hosting country in Asia+

8China on the CuspB eco!ing the #iggest internationa" student destination in AsiaB

The 3#ser'ator& on order"ess Higher Education:

China

+ndia

igeria

1nited States

a"a&sia

Hong Kong

Pakistan

Saudi Ara#ia

Canada

Thai"and

Taiwan

Korea 8South:

ang"adesh

Sri Lanka

Singapore

Gapan

orwa&

2ussia

+ran

Turke&

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,@0

5))0,)

Number of studentsin UK higher

education inst itutionsfrom the top 20countries of domicilefor non-EU students,2009/10


26/41

Producing new concentrations

of de!and

,9ir!ingha! Cit& 1ni'ersit&

59Co'entr& 1ni'ersit&

(9De ontfort 1ni'ersit&

49Edin#urgh apier 1ni'ersit&

-9G"&ndwr 1ni'ersit&

?9Herriot$att 1ni'ersit&

>9Kingston 1ni'ersit&

@9Lancaster 1ni'ersit&

9Leeds etropo"itan 1ni'ersit&

,)9anchester etropo"itan 1ni'ersit&

,,9idd"ese< 1ni'ersit&

,59ottingha! Trent 1ni'ersit&

,(9391ni'ersit& of 1"ster

4@91ni'ersit& of $a"es

491ni'ersit& of $a"es. ewport

-)91ni'ersit& of $arwick

-,91ni'ersit& of $ o"'erha!pton

-591ni'ersit& of the $est of Eng"and. risto"

-(9Jork St ohn 1ni'ersit&

)3 pro!iders with courses in 'ong 3ong

A d i i l l 4 l


27/41

And increasingly glo4alresearch networks

The continued strength of the traditional centres ofscientic e$cellence and the emergence of new playersand leaders point towards an increasingly multipolarscientic world, in which the distri!ution of scientic

activity is concentrated in a num!er of widely dispersedhu!s.


28/41

ut addressing these trends is

not si!p"e

‘Brand’

-ositioning

n!est2ent

+!erseasacade2icand industrypartners for

research

ew

co2petitors ;)" andChinese

uni!ersities

Co2plexethical and

politicallandscape

(i!ersestudent and

sta=ngneeds

eworganisational challenges ;'*7 8nance

Wider rangeof degree

2odels


29/41

2esearch concentration !a& affect &our

institution%s positioning do!estica""& and g"o#a""&


30/41

3r wi"" a drift toward contract #ased funding

present cha""enges or opportunities*

HE+CI s'r"ey

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31/41

How wi"" financia" !ode"s

e'o"'e*

6 EfficienciesB strea!"ining and new accounting practices*

6 CostsB ho""owing out of functions as part of efficienc& and

!odernisation strategies 7 narrower focus*

6 FundingB new !ode"s of pri'ate re'enue*

6 ew wa&s of !onetising the asset #ase 7 in'est!ent

dri'en organisations*


32/41

Jou !a& #e interested in 1S

re'enue !ode"s


33/41

Jou !a& #e interested in 1S

e


34/41

How !ight the presence of new

entrants affect &ou*

+ n l i n e p r o ! i s i o n 7 w i t h l o c a l l e a r n i n g 4 a s e s > l o c a t i o n s w i t h i n

# 2 i l e s o f D 2 i l l i o n A 2 e r i c a n s

o tenured professors ;

recruited 4y the class

Large 2arketing 4udget ;$Mof Apollo Nroup’s O#.% 4illionnet re!enue on selling and

pro2otional expenses A g g r e s s i ! e r e c r u i t 2 e n t o f t h o s e w i t h a c c e s s t o f e d e r a l a i d a n d

! e t e r a n s ; n e a r l y M o f

r e ! e n u e

&he )ni!ersity of-hoenix

J7K enrolledstudents in $#


35/41

And what a#out on"ine 7 are we

"ea'ing a decade of disappoint!ent*

6 (e!elop2ent in C-( 5 &E>6 /acilitated6 Blended6 +nline

6 ncreasingly 4otto2 upadoption and adaptation oftechnologies ; e.g. Cloudco2puting

6 (o technologies re1uirere!iew of 2ethods?

6 a!igating knowledge6 ntercultural and online

learning

6 *esearch 2ethods 5networks


36/41

And what a#out ;un#und"ed%

!ode"s of de"i'er&*

6 The ro"e of techno"og& in ena#"ing the

disaggregation of de"i'er& and

co!part!enta"ised ;products%

7 The de"i'er& processB6 Content 7 s&""a#us. research scho"arship

6 C"assroo! 7 teaching. "ectures. super'ision

6 +nfrastructure 7 +T networks. "i#raries. estates etc

7 The ;product%B

6 Pa& as &ou go tuition. credit accu!u"ation6 E


37/41

And through a"" of this generations

wi"" change 7 what wi"" this !ean*

T o d a & • C o h o r t o f f e e p a & i n g s t u d e n t s e n t e r i n g i n t o a c a d e ! i c w o r k f o r c e • $ e # 5 9 ) g e n e r a t i o n e n t e r i n g i n t o h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n

5 ) 5 ) • F e e p a & i n g c o h o r t e n t e r i n g a n d ! a t u r i n g i n t o a c a d e ! i c p o s t s

• $ e # 5 9 ) g e n e r a t i o n e n t e r i n g i n t o t h e a c a d e ! i c w o r k f o r c e

5 ) ( ) • F e e p a & i n g c o h o r t ! o ' i n g i n t o " e a d e r s h i p p o s i t i o n s • $ e # 5 9 ) g e n e r a t i o n e n t e r i n g i n t o ! a t u r e a c a d e ! i c p o s t s

5 ) 4 ) • H E + s s t a f f e d a n d " e d # & t h o s e w h o h a ' e p a i d f o r ! o s t o r a " " o f t h e c o s t o f t h e i r t u i t i o n a n d # e e n # r o u g h t u p o n i n t e r n e t s o c i a " n e t w o r k i n g


38/41

And socia" priorities wi"" e'o"'e

7 what wi"" #e the ne


39/41

So!e initia" uestions for the

group

6 $hat is right. wrong or !issing fro! this pictureB or

ha'e &ou heard it too often to care*

6 $hat is !ost significant for &ou and what are &ou

"ess #othered a#out*

6 $hat are the !ost significant uncertainties and how

!ight these shape outco!es*

6 $hat other wa&s are there or shou"d there #e of

"ooking at a"" this*

1) d d "

6) ,m"c(t"onPossible futures for the institution – in 30 years


40/41

1) Trend! dr"#er!

e#ent

ww.idenk.co2

5) The $e%"n"ng

&oment')

2) The wort c(e

3) The *et c(e

4) +n "nteret"ng c(e

() /e(t"onh" w"th

go#ernment')

*) /e(t"onh" w"thother "nt"tut"on

c) Other re(t"onh"

) uet"on to onder

y

$oode (n "m(ge

(


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( * A/

*e!iew of the workshop

#. a2e>PPPPPPPP

$. 'ow do you rate the session

higher education significance

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