HIGHER EDUCATION OVERVIEW

FORT HARE UNIVERSITY

12 APRIL 2012

Overview

• Big picture – national and international context of HE

– Distance between institutional/local and national/global

• Economic growth and development

• Higher education and development

• Higher education in Africa

• New policy responses currently underway

• Key issues

2

Economic Growth and Human DevelopmentA substantial body of academic and technical literature provides evidence of the

relationship between informationalism, productivity and competitiveness for countries, regions and business firms. But, this relationship only operates under three conditions: information connectedness, organizational change in the form of networking; and enhancement of the quality of human labor, itself dependent on education and quality of life. (Castells and Cloete, 2011)

The structural basis for the growing inequality, in spite of high growth rates in many parts of the world, is the growth of a highly dynamic, knowledge-producing, technologically advanced sector that is connected to other similar sectors in a global network, but it excludes a significant segment of the economy and of the society in its own country. The lack of human development prevents what Manuel Castells calls the ‘virtuous cycle’, which constrains the dynamic economy. (Castells and Cloete, 2011)

Connecting growth to human development – trickle down don’t work

3

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita vs Human Development Index (HDI)

4

Country GDP per capita (PPP, $US) 2007

GDP ranking HDI Ranking (2007) GDP ranking per capita minus HDI ranking

Botswana 13 604 60 125 -65

Mauritius 11 296 68 81 -13

South Africa 9 757 78 129 -51

Chile 13 880 59 44 +15

Costa Rica 10 842 73 54 +19

Taiwan (China)

Ghana 1 334 153 152 1

Kenya 1 542 149 147 2

Mozambique 802 169 172 -3

Uganda 1 059 163 157 6

Tanzania 1 208 157 151 6

Finland 34 256 23 12 11

South Korea 24 801 35 26 9

U.S.A. 45 592 9 13 -4

Economic Growth in Post Apartheid SA

During the first decade of the post-apartheid era in South Africa, gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a ‘modest rate’, averaging one percent, though edging up to around three percent. Nevertheless, this has been the longest period of positive growth in its history.

The envisaged post-1994 economic policies for the development project stated that the economy would require steering onto a new development path which, amongst others, would reduce dependence on resource sectors through industrial deepening and diversification (Bhorat 2010).

Mohamed (2009, 2011) states that we experienced the ‘wrong type’ of economic growth from the end of apartheid and particularly during the five years prior to the 2008 financial crisis. Economic growth was not only associated with high unemployment and growing inequality, it was unsustainable because it required growing private sector indebtedness and was accompanied by decline in productive services and manufacturing

5

Economic Growth and the 2008 Financial CrisisThe worst impact of the 2008 crisis, resulted in at least a million job losses is

associated with:• structural industrial weaknesses and de-industrialization as a result of

development centred around mining and minerals• continued reliance on extractive mining and minerals exports• consumption led growth and increased investment in services sectors, such as

finance and retail• speculative asset bubbles in real estate and finance and increased construction

(mainly around the 2010 Soccer World Cup) and car sales • the role of the financial sector which has emulated the behaviour of US

financial institutions in increasing leverage and misallocation of capital in SA economy. (Mohamed 2009)

6

Economic Growth and Change of Skills Profile

A major change in the South African economy is the change in the skills profile. The National Planning Commission Diagnostic Report (NPC 2011) shows that job growth between 1995 and 2009 saw a 50% increase in high-skilled jobs and a 20% decrease in low-skilled jobs. Using data for the period 1970–2005, and updated to 2009, Bhorat (2010b:20) argue that “… this growth path has been built on a rising demand for skilled labour with a steady erosion in the demand for unskilled or under-skilled workers. The modern era in the South African economy has thus been defined by a growth path with a constant increased demand for educated workers at the expense of those with lower level of human capital”

7

Poverty Reduction in Post Apartheid SA (1)

The stated goal of the post-apartheid economic policy was to reduce poverty, inequality and unemployment. A 2% growth should lead to a 1-7% reduction in poverty, depending on the country – meaning the success of redistributive policies (Bhorat 2010a). In South Africa, poverty declined from 52% in 1995 to 49% in 2005 and in the lower poverty group a 7% decline (31% to 24%). In addition, there were definite gains in poverty reduction, particularly in African female-headed households (Bhorat 2010a). All people, regardless of race, experienced increases in expenditure, meaning that growth was ‘pro-poor’.

Despite the modest gains in poverty reduction, the inequality gap did not decrease; instead, it increased amongst all groups. This led Bhorat (2010a) to conclude that in 1994 South Africa was ‘one of the world’s most unequal societies, but by 2005 it may have become the world’s most unequal’.

8

Poverty Reduction in Post Apartheid SA (2)While spending on education and health remained fairly constant in real terms,

recipients of social grants (excluding administration) now consumes 3.2% of GDP, up from 1.9% in 2000/01. The total number of beneficiaries increased from 3 million in 1997 to 15 million in 2010 (Woodard and Rembrandt 2011). The share of households in the first income deciles with access to grant income increased from 43% in 1995 to almost 65% in 2005 and that even for households in the sixth deciles grant income increased from 19% in 1994 to 50% in 2005. According to Bhorat (2010a) this suggests that grant income does not only support the very poor, but also a large number of households in the middle income distribution.

More recent estimates suggest that 25% of the population are on social grants and 40 per cent of household income in the poorest quintile (Woolard and Leibbrandt 2011).

Post-1994 South African democratic redistribution model operates through extensive social grants at the bottom end, few benefits at the middle of the distribution curve and the main growth is at the de-racialising top end. Based on this growth path, both Bhorat (unequal income distribution) and Mbeki (the disempowerment of welfarism) express concern for the future of democracy.

9

Higher Education and Development

• SA has a development model crisis• The small “productive” sector is increasingly globally connected

while the majority remain disconnected, but is “maintained” through social welfare which should be supplemented by service delivery – but this is not Productive nor Empowering

• We need more and broader growth which connects Growth to Human Development

• Castells project of Finland, Chile, Taiwan, Costa Rica, SA and California

• Higher education, and ICT, has a crucial role to play in virtuous growth - Knowledge production (growth), broadening medium level skills and participation (equity)

• Basic link is education and employment (linked)

10

11

JapanGermany

UKItaly

Korea

BrazilArgentina

Egypt

Tunisia

United States

South Africa

India

China

Australia

Mexico

Influence of Scientific Research

Econ

omic

dev

elop

men

t

GDP per capita (current US$) Predicted GDP per capita (current US$)

High

Low

Low High

Data source: Thomson Reuters InCitesTM (21 September 2010); The World Bank Group (2010)

The relationship between scientific excellence and economic development

(R = 0.714, P = 0.218)(R = 0.961, P = 0.002)*

Vuyani Lingela, 24 November 2011

Participation Rate and Development Indicators

12

CountryStage of

development (2009-2010)

Gross tertiary education

enrolment rate (2008)

Quality of education

system ranking (2009-2010)

Overall global competitive

ranking (2010-2011)

Ghana

Stage 1: Factor-driven

6 71 114

Kenya 4 32 106

Mozambique 2 81 131Tanzania 2 99 113Uganda 4 72 118

Botswana Transition from 1 to 2 20 48 76

Mauritius Stage 2: Efficiency-driven

26 50 55South Africa 17 (8.5) 130 54Finland

Stage 3: Innovation-driven

94 6 7South Korea 98 57 22United States 82 26 4

BRICS: Selected higher education and economic development indicators (WEF 2010)

13

Country Stage of

development(2009-2010)

GDP per capita (USD)(2009)

Tertiary education

enrolment rate (2008)

Global Competitiveness

Index ranking (2010–2011)

Brazil Stage 2: Efficiency-driven 8 220 35 58

Russia Stage 2: Efficiency-driven 8 694 77 63

India Stage 1: Factor-driven 1 031 14 (2007) 51

China Stage 2: Efficiency-driven 3 678 23 27

South Africa Stage 2: Efficiency-driven 5 824 17 54

Gross participation rates in SA higher education by Race, 1986 - 2009

14

Afri

can

Col

oure

d

Indi

an

Whi

te

Ave

rage

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

% P

artic

ipati

on R

ate

Business/Man-agement

Life and Physical Sciences

Mathematical Sciences

Social Sciences Languages

11% 11%13% 14% 13%

43%

35%33%

43%

52%

24%21%

24%

29% 28%

Graduated in regular time (3 years) - general academic first B-degrees, excluding Unisa

Black White All

Source: Fisher and Scott, 2011

Effective Participation: Throughput rates of general academic first-B-degrees

Structure of the South African Education System (2010)Universities

986,559UG diplomas & certificates 285,948UG degrees 440,934Total undergraduates 726,882PG to M 80,321Masters 46,699Doctors 11,590 Total postgraduate 138,610Occasional students 27,444Total enrolment 892,936Private Universities 93,623

FET Colleges

404,849N1 – N3 24,937N4 – N6 144,837NC(V) 130,039NSC 3,916Occupational 23,160Total Public 326,889 Private FET Colleges 77,960

Public and Independent Schools

12,644,208FET Band 2,460,961

GET Band 9,742,078

OTHER

7,441

Total

12,260,099

ECD

279,476

Special Schools

104,633

Not in Education, Employment or Training (18 to 24 year olds)

2,781,185comprising persons with the following qualifications:B degree/ Masters/ PhD

11,552Gr 12 + dipl/cert

72,588Gr 12 with/without exemption

696,992Gr 10 less than Gr 12

990,794Less than Grade 10

1,009,259

Public ABET (2011)

312,077

South Africa and Brazil

17

South Africa Higher Education and Post-Secondary Provisioning, 2010 Provisional Headcounts

Brazil Education, 2009

650 000

752 000

118 000

3 764 000

180 000

838 000

Public state (10%)

Public federal (12%)

Public municipal (2%)

Private Higher Education (60%)

Private PG (mainly business schools) (3%)

Distance (13%)

Contact Institutions Distance Provider Private

Students in system : 6 302 000Total population : 193 millionPrivate students : 63%Participation Rate : 35%

1 000 000

81 596

109 482

210 319

301 554

89 581

292 464

Knowledge Production – High (8%)

Knowledge Production – Medium (55%)

Knowledge Production – Low (19%)

Post-Secondary (10%)

Private Higher Education (8%)

NEET with Grade 12/ STD 10/ NTCIII (NEET's with matric)

Total: 594 018

Population: 49 000 000HE Participation rate: 17%White PR: 58%African PR: 13% Source: CHET

1993 1997 2001 2005 20090.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.60 0.60 0.59

0.57

0.54

0.67 0.670.69 0.68 0.68

Gini Coefficient - South Africa compared to Brazil Brazil South Africa

Source: CHET

A low Gini coefficient indicates a more equal distribution of income or wealth, with 0 corresponding to perfect equality, while a higher Gini coefficient indicate more unequal distribution, with 1 corresponding to perfect inequality.

Knowledge Economy

Globally Central role of knowledge in government policies

Focus in Knowledge Policies on:

1. Global economic competitiveness2. Innovative capacity of societies3. High Level Skills and Competencies of Labour force (Knowledge workers)

Claus Swabe (WEF) Not Capitalism, but Talentism

International Knowledge Policies – MaassenStarting point = New conditions in the global economyGrowing focus of national (regional – supranational) policy makersand other central socio-economic actors on the university as adriver for economic growth through its role as source for

innovationand job creation.

Consequence = Two new university governance aspectsFirst targeted policies for and investments in universities’ researchcapacity are assumed to be needed in order to improve the globalcompetitiveness of a specific economy. Second, targeted policies for and investments in connecting theenhanced research capacity of universities to the knowledge needsof society (incl. private and public sector companies andorganisations) in order to ensure the link of new knowledge toeconomic growth (innovation & new jobs ). «Balancing academic excellence with economic relevance»

HERANA: 8 African Countries and Flagship Universities

Higher Education Research and Advocacy Network in Africa • Starting point is to increase understanding of the complex links/interactions

between higher education and economic development – at national and institutional levels

• Three successful systems – Finland, South Korea and North Carolina (USA)• Eight African countries and their national universities: Botswana, Ghana,

Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, South Africa (Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University/UCT), Tanzania, Uganda

• Network consists of 50 people from 15 countries, include Manuel Castells, Peter Maassen (Oslo) John Douglas (Berkeley) and Pundy Pillay (Wits)

Funded by: Ford, Carnegie, Rockefeller, Kresge and Norad

Findings from Three Successful Systems

Finland, South Korea, North Carolina (USA)• As part of reorganising their ‘mode of production’, a pact was reached about a

knowledge economy (high skills and innovation) as development driver • Close links between economic and education planning• High participation rates with differentiation• Strong ‘state’ steering (projects)• Higher education linked to regional development• Responsive to the labour market• Strong coordination (prime ministers office) and networks

Pundy Pillay (2010) Linking higher education to economic development: Implications for Africa from three successful systems (CHET)

HERANA Findings on 8 African Countries and Flagship Universities

1. There is a lack of agreement (pact) between national and university stakeholders about a development model, and about the role of higher education in development

2. Only one of the eight countries (Mauritius) has accepted knowledge, and the associated human capital and research development, as a key driver for economic growth

3. Linking higher education to development requires considerable coordination within government, and between government, the university and external funders, and all three must contribute

4. The absence of a pact about the role of the university in development affects negatively implementation and resource allocation – which raises the possibility that we a have double problem; lack of capacity and a lack of agreement

23

New policy responses currently underway

• New policy frenzy reminiscent of 1995

• Economic, environment, labour and even constitution

• Focus on:

– National planning Commission

– DHET Green Paper

• Focus on knowledge policies, participation and differentiation

24

National Planning Commission (Nov 2011): Functions of HE (1)

25

Higher education is the major driver of the information-knowledge system, linking it with economic development...Universities are key to developing a nation. They play three main functions in society:

Firstly, they educate and train people with high-level skills for the employment needs of the public and private sectors.

Secondly, universities are the dominant producers of new knowledge, and they critique information and find new local and global applications for existing knowledge. Universities also set norms and standards, determine the curriculum, languages and knowledge, ethics and philosophy underpinning a nation's knowledge-capital. South Africa needs knowledge that equips people for a society in constant social change

NPC: Functions (2)

26

"Thirdly, given the country's apartheid history, higher education provides opportunities for social mobility and simultaneously strengthens equity, social justice and democracy. In today's knowledge society, higher education underpinned by a strong science and technology innovation system is increasingly important in opening up people's opportunities." (p262)

For the first time knowledge production and equity are linked by stating that "high quality knowledge production cannot be fully realized with a low student participation rate" (p274).

Also universities are not mainly fro individual mobility or for equity redress - equity is mentioned last and transformation

in the Castells sense

NPC: Knowledge Enthusiasm

27

The NPC is so enthusiastic about knowledge that it declares that "knowledge production is the rationale of higher education" (p271) - indeed a radical departure from the traditional 'rationale' of higher education in Africa, that is, disseminating (teaching) knowledge from somewhere else.

Posters outside Parliament for Thursday’s State of the Nation:Knowledge Economy and Development Opportunities. At ANC 100th Zuma said: “Education and skills are the key priority

for our people”These are huge steps away from HE as individual mobility and an

equity instrument – but in State of Nation President announced the biggest infrastructure project in history – not a word of KE

NPC Knowledge Policies

28

1. the notion of knowledge production consists of a combination of PhD education and research output.

2. a target of tripling the number of doctoral gradates from 1,420 to 5,000 per annum, and increasing the proportion of academic staff with PhDs from 34% to 75%

3. a number of world-class centres and programmes should be developed within the national system of innovation and the higher education sector.

4. a new future scholars programme needs to be developed, both to increase the proportion of staff with PhDs and to meet the increasing demand for professional PhDs in the non-university research, financial and services sectors

5. role of science councils should be reviewed in light of the world-wide tendency to align, or merge, research councils with universities

NPC: Differentiation

29

1. deals with the worldwide policy debate about the concentration of resources by proposing world-class centers and programmes across institutions (High science - Ska)

2. advises the Ministerial Committee for the Review of the Funding of Universities that such revisions should be based on the needs of a differentiated system with adequate provision for both teaching and research

3. requires flexible pathways for student mobility between institutions

4. the Higher Education Quality Committee should finally start developing a core set of quality indicators for the whole system;

Differentiation: Key Issues

30

1. Differentiation a process – diversity and hierarchy

2. Concentration:

• Institutions – world class/underclass

• Programmes – skills

• Institutional profiles – faculties

• Special centers/networks - (High science - Ska), Networks, Institutes

DHET Green Paper

31

Research and innovation1. Economic depends on innovation and technology absorption2. While investment in research has tripled, there has not been a

commensurate increase in personnel3. Total knowledge output has increased 64% (2000-2009) but the

system must become more productive 4. Poverty is a significant constraint on masters and Phd studies –

students under pressure to obtain jobs??5. Drastically increase number and quality of masters and PhD’s 6. Need for increased coordination between DHET and DST7. Caliber and workload of academic staff must be addressed8. Long term plan for renewing the academic profession -

doctorates for academics and professions

Ministers Presentation to HESA (3 April 2012)

32

ResearchThe research output of 2010, 57% of accredited research in the

sector takes place at five institutions. These are all institutions with a historical research focus. In contrast with this, less that 10% of total research takes place at another eleven institutions. These eleven includes all Universities of Technology and many of the previously disadvantaged institutions.

When looking closely at these eleven institutions, output per staff member is the lowest here and that, in general, the percentage of staff with Doctoral qualifications is also the lowest.

Ministers Presentation to HESA (3 April 2012)

33

Research The fact is that Government cannot afford to develop all higher

education institutions to become research intensive. Our institutions have different missions and agendas, and rightly so. It is, therefore, important for institutions to identify their mission and develop their strengths accordingly.

This does not exclude institutions from engaging in research at all. All universities must conduct research. It is only the nature and quantity of research that will differ.

It would not benefit society if research were to be developed to the detriment of quality teaching and learning.

NPC and DHET: The Good, the Bad and the Incomprehensible

34

1. Differentiation (whatever form) is official 2. Knowledge production (PhD and research output must increase – different

counts of research outputs) – at last recognising the knowledge producing role of the university

3. Big focus on doctorate – for academics (target more than 60%), professions research councils and other sectors (finance)

4. Good quality undergraduate education – including infrastructure funds for labs, libraries, housing

5. Improvement of through put – efficiency 6. Dramatic increase in participation rate – mainly in FET sector7. Mission and profile differentiation8. Improved Coordination between DSHT and DHET (HESA meeting)9. More funding for higher education 10.Shift from Transformation to Development

China Mexico Denmark India Korea South Africa

Japan Australia Poland United Kingdom

United States

Canada Germany Hungary-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

40.0%

17.1%

10.0%8.5%

7.1% 6.4% 6.2% 6.2% 6.1% 5.2%

2.5%1.0% 0.0%

-2.2%

The rise of doctorates

Source: Nature. International weekly journal in Science

Major expansion of higher education has boosted PhD output in many countries, shown here as average annual growth of doctoral degrees across all disciplines. 1998 - 2006

Botswana Makerere Eduardo Mondlane

Ghana *Mauritius Nairobi Dar es Salaam

NMMU University of Cape Town

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

187 2996

648

1,103931

674

1,759

6,080

34 126 0 83 47 163 90 203

854

HERANA - Total PhD enrolled and total PhD graduates, 2001 - 2007

* Mauritius enroll large numbers of students as MPhil students, and depending on their performance only some graduate as PhD students

Graph 1 offers summaries for the 15-year period 1996-2010. Doctoral enrolments were 1.3% of national total of 893 000 students in 2010.

Summary of high-level inputs and outputs

37

5164 55286394

77638790

9800 9939

11468

685 761 961 969 1104 1100 1182

1421

5622 5456 5936 6483 66608003 8353

9748

13449 1309814184 14673

15423 15809 1593616684

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Doctoral enrolments Doctoral graduates Research publications Permanent academics

Permanent academics

Doctoral enrolmentsResearch publications

Doctoral graduates

Graph 4 shows how the % of doctoral enrolments by race group changed between 1996 to 2010. African doctoral students rose from 13% in 1996 to 33% in 2004, and 44% in 2010.

Percentage of doctoral enrolments in race groupings

38

13%

25%33%

41%44%

78%

62%55%

49%

42%

9%

13% 12% 10%14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1996 2000 2004 2008 2010

African White Coloured +Indian

AfricanWhite

Coloured+Indian

Enrolments   South African International Total

2007 7 195 2 853 10 0482008 6 959 3 035 9 9942009 7 213 3 316 10 5292010 7 841 3 749 11 590

2007 2008 2009 201011%

12%

13%

14%

15%

13%12%

13%

12%

13%

12%

14%

13%

South African PhD students graduation rate by nationality

South African International

Gra

duat

ion

Rate

 Graduates South AfricanInternationa

l Total2007 900 374 1 2742008 829 353 1 1822009 908 470 1 3782010 931 489 1 420

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

77% 75% 74% 72% 67%

23% 25% 26% 28% 33%

Norwegian Universities - PhD graduates by nationality

Norwegian International

Graduates  Norwegian International Total2007 789 241 10302008 937 308 12452009 851 297 11482010 858 326 11842011 889 438 1327

2007 2008 2009 20100%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

71% 70% 66% 66%

29% 30% 34% 34%

South African Universities – PhD graduates by nationality

South African International

It is important to note that the two countries produce almost the same number

of PhD graduates but that South Africa’s population is in the order of 48 million

whilst Norway’s population is 4.8 million